Atmospheric General Circulation Model Research Articles

Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation in winter

Abstract. The modulation of the winter impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is investigated in the IPSL-CM6A-LR ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Ensembles of simulations are performed with constrained sea-ice concentration following the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) and initial conditions sampling warm and cold phases of the PDO. Using a general linear model, we estimate the simulated winter impact of sea-ice loss, PDO and their combined effects. On the one hand, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern appears in response to sea-ice loss together with a modest deepening of the Aleutian Low. On the other hand, a warm PDO phase induces a large positive Pacific–North America pattern, as well as a small negative Arctic Oscillation pattern. Both sea-ice loss and warm PDO responses are associated with a weakening of the poleward flank of the eddy-driven jet, an intensification of the subtropical jet and a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. These effects are partly additive; the warm PDO phase therefore enhances the response to sea-ice loss, while the cold PDO phase reduces it. However, the effects of PDO and sea-ice loss are also partly non-additive, with the interaction between both signals being slightly destructive. This results in small damping of the PDO teleconnections under sea-ice loss conditions, especially in the stratosphere. The sea-ice loss responses are compared to those obtained with the same model in atmosphere-only simulations, where sea-ice loss does not significantly alter the stratospheric polar vortex.

Response of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to remote carbonaceous aerosols at short time scales: Teleconnections and feedbacks

The effect of atmospheric aerosols on Indian monsoon is one of the scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issues of the recent decades. Past studies have derived inferences mostly based on local emissions and their impacts thereupon. However, more recent studies have shown that the remote effects driven by aerosols elsewhere could also impact the monsoon system on different time scales. Our study using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) shows that regional carbonaceous aerosol emissions (from North America, Europe and North Africa and Asia) can significantly alter Indian summer monsoon rainfall. It is interesting to note that the effects of remote aerosols are larger and bear a resemblance to each other in comparison to local emissions. Our study reveals that the modulation of large-scale circulation induced by regional warming by carbonaceous aerosols leads to teleconnection patterns around the globe, thereby changing the precipitation depending on the phase of these disturbances. We also find that the effects of remote carbonaceous aerosols are strengthened by modulation/feedback through natural dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea with subsequent increase in rainfall over India. The results signify that the changes in the aerosol emissions in one region could lead to the change in precipitation over other regions through global teleconnection and associated feedbacks induced by regional atmospheric warming and/or cooling.

Assessing the contribution of dynamical downscaling to austral autumn Northeast Brazil seasonal precipitation prediction performance

This study aims to assess the contribution to prediction performance of dynamically downscaling seasonal precipitation for the Brazilian Northeast region (NEB) produced in February with a global climate model for the austral autumn (March-April-May). This season includes the peak precipitation period of a large portion of this region. To achieve this aim, 32 years of hindcasts for the period 1979–2010 were produced with a regional model known as the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) run at 30 km spatial resolution, which was unidirectional nested to a global model run at approximately 200 km spatial resolution. The used global model was the Atmospheric General Circulation Models of the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC/AGCM), which provided initial and lateral boundary conditions for BRAMS. Hindcast ensembles of 10 members were produced with both the global and the regional models, simulating an operational prediction environment using persisted sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies observed in the previous January of each of the 32 hindcast years as oceanic boundary conditions. A comparative deterministic and probabilistic performance assessment of the two models was conducted. The deterministic assessment included the investigation of the mean error (bias) of the produced seasonal precipitation hindcasts, the degree of linear association between the observed and predicted precipitation anomalies measuring phase error through the correlation of the ensemble means with the corresponding observations, and amplitude error investigated through the ratio between the hindcast ensemble mean and observed variances. The probabilistic assessment was performed investigation the reliability, resolution, and discrimination characteristics of tercile probability predictions for the above normal and below normal categories, and also for probabilistic predictions for the occurrence of the symmetric event positive (or negative) precipitation anomaly. The two investigated modeling approaches showed similar performance, with an indication for dynamically downscaled predictions to have reduced amplitude error and slightly improved reliability and resolution compared to the predictions produced with the global model.

Simulation of the Boreal Winter East Asian Cold Surge by IAP AGCM4.1

In this study, we evaluate the performances of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics atmospheric general circulation model (IAP AGCM version4.1) and atmospheric component of Chinese Academy of Science Earth System Model, version 1 (CAS-ESM1) in the simulation of the cold surge (CS) events in East Asia. In general, the model can capture the main features of anomalous precipitation and circulation associated with the cold surge days. Compared with climatological means of boreal winter, on CS days, the precipitation increases in the southern part of the South China Sea (SCS), while decreases in the subtropical regions near the southern China. In addition, the climatological northeasterly wind over the SCS region strengthens on CS days. In the first day composites of CS events, it shows a dipole pattern in middle latitude over East Asia, with a positive (negative) sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly in the west (east). Based on the anomalous SLP signs in the two centers of the dipole pattern, the CS days can be further classified into two types: positive-west–negative-east-type and positive-west–positive-east-type. All these features can be reasonably reproduced by IAP AGCM4.1. Although in most CS days there is positive SLP anomaly in the East China, some negative events were investigated in this study. In these negative events the northerly anomaly in SCS is associated with an anticyclonic circulation anomaly around the eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, rather than descending from the mid-to-high latitude cold air outbreaks. The feature can also be captured by the model.

Improving Madden–Julian oscillation simulation in atmospheric general circulation models by coupling with a one-dimensional snow–ice–thermocline ocean model

Abstract. A one-column, turbulent, and kinetic-energy-type ocean mixed-layer model (snow–ice–thermocline, SIT), when coupled with three atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), yields superior Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations. SIT is designed to have fine layers similar to those observed near the ocean surface; therefore, it can realistically simulate the diurnal warm layer and cool skin. This refined discretization of the near-surface ocean in SIT provides accurate sea surface temperature (SST) simulation, and thus facilitates realistic air–sea interaction. Coupling SIT with the European Centre/Hamburg Model version 5, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, and the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model significantly improved MJO simulation in three coupled AGCMs compared to the AGCM driven by a prescribed SST. This study suggests two major improvements to the coupling process. First, during the preconditioning phase of MJO over the Maritime Continent (MC), the often underestimated surface latent heat bias in AGCMs can be corrected. Second, during the phase of strongest convection over the MC, the change in intraseasonal circulation in the meridional circulation enhancing near-surface moisture convergence is the dominant factor in the coupled simulations relative to the uncoupled experiments. The study results show that a fine vertical resolution near the surface, which better captures temperature variations in the upper few meters of the ocean, considerably improves different models with different configurations and physical parameterization schemes; this could be an essential factor for accurate MJO simulation.

Mach and Froude Numbers on Mars

Mars atmospheric global circulation models exhibit transonic jet streaks during northern winter, which motivates this study of the Mach number, Ma (the ratio of flow speed to the speed of sound), and Froude number, Fr (the ratio of flow speed to the speed of buoyancy waves), as a function of season and location. Two global reanalyses spanning Mars Years (MY) 24 to 32 are used as input, EMARS and OpenMARS. The study’s vertical coordinate is potential temperature, θ, ranging from θ = 400 to 1100 K (from z ≈ 32 to 66 km); the floor is set to the lowest level that avoids intersecting mountains. Area-weighted global means and standard deviations and 5 yr temporal means using the complete years MY 25, 26, 29, 30, and 31 are compared. EMARS and OpenMARS show general agreement below θ = 700 K (z ≈ 53 km), where the observational constraints are strongest, but can vary significantly at higher levels. Both reanalyses contain transonic jet streaks in every northern winter sampled. The Fr signal is roughly twice the Ma number signal, as expected where the temperature lapse rate is small compared to the dry adiabatic lapse rate. Mach numbers are similar in both reanalyses but show larger year-to-year variability in OpenMARS. Maps of standard deviations indicate a depression between the main peaks in Tharsis and higher variability in Mare Boreum than Mare Australe. The main conclusion is that the atmosphere of Mars routinely operates in the compressible regime (0.3 < Ma < 0.8), unlike Earth. Aspects of all flow-speed meteorology are discussed.

The role of air–sea coupling on November–April intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific

We investigate the impact of resolving air-sea interaction on the simulation of the intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific using the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model coupled with the Snow-Ice-Thermocline (SIT) ocean model. We compare the fully coupled simulation with two uncoupled ECHAM5 simulations, one forced with sea surface temperature (SST) climatology and one forced with daily SST from the coupled model. The intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific is reduced by 17% in the uncoupled model forced with SST climatology and increased by 8% in the uncoupled simulation forced with daily SST, suggesting the role of air–sea coupling and SST variability. The coupled model best simulates the key characteristics of the two dominant patterns (modes) of intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific with reasonable propagation and correct periodicity. The spatial structure of the two rainfall modes in all three simulations is very similar, suggesting the dynamics of the atmosphere primarily generate these modes. The southeastward propagation of rainfall anomalies associated with two leading rainfall modes in the South Pacific depends upon the eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signals from the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Air-sea interaction improves such propagation as both eastward and southeastward propagations are substantially reduced in the uncoupled model forced with SST climatology. The simulation of both eastward and southeastward propagations considerably improved in the uncoupled model forced with daily SST; however, the periodicity differs from the coupled model. Such discrepancy in the periodicity is attributed to the changes in the SST-rainfall relationship with weaker correlations and the nearly in-phase relationship, attributed to enhanced positive latent heat flux feedbacks.

Response of the South Asian High in May to the Early Spring North Pacific Victoria Mode

Abstract The interannual variability of the South Asian high (SAH) in May plays an important role in the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon. In this study, reanalysis data and an atmospheric general circulation model are employed to investigate the response of the SAH in May to the early spring North Pacific Victoria mode (VM) on an interannual time scale. Observational results indicate a robust linkage between the early spring VM and the SAH position in May, even if the El Niño and Indian Ocean basin model (IOBM) signals are removed. When the early spring VM is in its positive phase, a zonally divergent circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere forms with tropospheric divergence over the tropical eastern Pacific and anomalous convergence over the South China Sea–Maritime Continent region. As a result, westerly anomalies associated with the zonally divergent circulation anomaly appear in the upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean–Indochina Peninsula that impede the northwestward movement of the SAH in May. When the early spring VM is in its negative phase, the opposite conditions occur. Three sets of numerical experiments were performed to verify the key physical process revealed in the observational results. The early spring VM is a reliable indicator of the interannual variability of the SAH position in May.

Mechanical and Thermal Impacts of the Tibetan–Iranian Plateau on the North Pacific Storm Track: Numerical Experiments by FGOALS‐f3‐L

AbstractBy employing a state‐of‐the‐art global atmospheric general circulation model from the Global Monsoons Model Inter‐comparison Project, this study investigates the mechanical and thermal impacts of the Tibetan‐Iranian Plateau (TIP) on the North Pacific storm track (NPST). When the TIP‐associated mechanical forcing is removed, the winter NPST strengthens remarkably on the northern flank of its climatological maximum and becomes inconspicuously separated from storm track activities over the Asian continent. The midwinter suppression of the NPST is almost inapparent but still exists. In contrast, when TIP‐associated thermal forcing is absent, the winter NPST amplitudes weaken prominently on the north and west sides, and the midwinter suppression remains obvious. The mechanical and thermal impact of the TIP on the NPST are robust not only in winter but also in other seasons. Without the TIP‐associated mechanical forcing, the intensified winter NPST may be dependent on the weakened and widened upper‐level jet, strengthened atmospheric baroclinicity on the north side of climatological winter upper‐level jet, enhanced baroclinic energy conversion, and attenuated East Asian trough. In contrast, without the TIP‐associated thermal forcing, the weakened winter NPST may be determined by the strengthened and narrowed upper‐level jet, reduced atmospheric baroclinicity on the northern flank of upper‐level jet, decreased baroclinic energy conversion, and intensified East Asian trough.

Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

AbstractReconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree‐ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter‐spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.

Maintenance Mechanisms of the Wintertime Subtropical High over the South Indian Ocean

Abstract Climatologically the surface Mascarene high over the subtropical south Indian Ocean (SIO) shifts westward toward austral winter, and its strength as a planetary-wave component maximizes in late austral winter, unlike its counterpart over other subtropical oceans. The present study investigates the maintenance mechanisms for the wintertime Mascarene high with a linear atmospheric dynamical model (LBM) and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The LBM experiments reveal the importance of cross-equatorial tropical influences. Deep convection associated with the Asian summer monsoon acts not only to shift the Mascarene high westward as its direct influence but also to enhance midtropospheric subsidence and equatorward surface winds over the central and western portions of the subtropical SIO. The associated near-surface cold advection and subsidence promote (suppress) the formation of low-level (deep convective) clouds. The resultant enhanced radiative cooling and reduced deep condensation heating both reinforce the equatorward portion of the surface high. The LBM experiments also reveal that seasonally enhanced storm-track activity over the SIO is important for maintaining the poleward portion of the Mascarene high through eddy heat and vorticity fluxes. The AGCM experiments demonstrate that the Agulhas Current system and the associated sea surface temperature (SST) front reinforce the high by energizing the storm-track activity. The present study thus proposes that both the Asian summer monsoon and the enhanced storm-track activity maintained by the Agulhas SST front externally modulate the positively coupled system between the wintertime Mascarene high and low-level clouds to realize its unique seasonality.

Relative Impacts of the Orography and Land–Sea Contrast over the Indochina Peninsula on the Asian Summer Monsoon between Early and Late Summer

Abstract The Indochina Peninsula (ICP) has a critical effect in shaping the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, the seasonal responses of the ASM to the ICP are not fully understood. This study employs a 1° atmospheric general circulation model to examine the different contributions of the ICP’s orography and land–sea contrast to the ASM during the early and late summer. Results indicate that the orographic effect increases South Asian rainfall and reduces the rainfall over the South China Sea (SCS) and North China in early summer, but its influence on monsoonal circulation and rainfall is limited to East Asia in late summer. The impact of the ICP’s land–sea contrast is basically opposite in the two summer stages. With the presence of the ICP, SCS rainfall is enhanced but South Asian rainfall is weakened in early summer. In late summer, however, rainfall from the ICP to the northwestern Pacific is strikingly reduced, accompanied by intensified rainfall over South Asia. Relatively, the orographic effect seems to be more important in modulating the South Asian monsoon in early summer, while the land–sea contrast is dominant in strengthening the SCS monsoon and suppressing the northwest Pacific monsoon via the interaction between the induced local circulation and multilevel ASM subsystems. In late summer, the orographic effect on the ASM is much weaker compared to the land–sea contrast, which plays a critical role by shifting the subtropical high southwestward and through the “thermal adaption” feedback mechanism. Therefore, the orographic impact of the ICP on the ASM differs from that of the land–sea contrast in the two summer stages.

Simulation of Summer Rainfall in Thailand by IAP-AGCM4.1

Thailand is located in the Southeast Asian region, where the summer rainfall exhibits strong interannual variability, and the successful simulation of rainfall variation in Thailand by current climate models remains a challenge. Therefore, this paper evaluates the capability of the state-of-the-art Atmospheric GCM of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP-AGCM) in simulating summer rainfall over Thailand by comparing the model’s results with ground-truth observation during 1981–2012. Generally, the model shows a certain skill in reproducing the observed spatial distribution of the summer rainfall climatology and its interannual variability over Thailand, although the model underestimated both rainfall amount and its variability. Using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, it is found that the IAP climate model reproduced creditably the spatial patterns of the first three dominant modes of summer rainfall in Thailand, whereas it underestimated the explained variance of the observed EOF-1 and overestimated the explained variance of the observed EOF-2 significantly. It was further found that the correlation between the observed rainfall anomalies in Thailand and the Niño3.4 index can be reproduced by the IAP model. However, the observed negative correlation is largely underestimated by the IAP climate model, and this could be the reason for the underestimation of explained variance of the EOF-1 by the IAP model. The evaluation results would be of great importance for further model improvement and thus potential application in seasonal prediction in the region.

Tests of a New Solar Flare Model Against D and E Region Ionosphere Data

AbstractWe present results from a suite of models designed to simulate solar flare effects on the D and E region of the ionosphere. This suite includes models of the solar spectrum, the ionosphere and of HF radiowave propagation. A central component of this system is the development of photoelectron ionization enhancement factors with higher energy resolution in the soft X‐ray spectral region that can be used to supplement existing ionization schemes currently implemented in upper atmospheric general circulation models. We tested this photoelectron model in the NCAR Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Mesosphere‐ Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME‐GCM) and in a photochemical model of the D region. In both cases, we compared predicted flare response using two different input solar flare spectra. One is the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) and the other is a physics based model called NRLFLARE. Our predictions for the E region were compared with incoherent scatter radar data and suggest that enhanced flux in the 1–2 nm spectral region, as indicated by NRLFLARE, is important for reproducing the observations. For the D region, we combined our theoretical results for the X1.3 flare of 7 September 2017 with ray tracing calculations that suggest 20–40 db of 6.4 MHz absorption. This agrees with previously published observations and model estimates, all of which suggest greater HF absorption than the operational D region absorption prediction model (swpc.noaa.gov/products/d‐region‐absorption‐predictions‐d‐rap). Finally, our theoretical comparison with previously published empirical models derived from very low frequency data was less clear due, in part, to large differences between the different empirical models.

Cambio climático y su efecto sobre la distribución de especies arbóreas del bosque mesófilo de montaña de Oaxaca

Introduction: Climate change represents a problem that generates long-term impacts and is considered a threat to the conservation of many species. Objective: To evaluate the impact of climate change on the distribution areas of 10 trees species characteristic of cloud forests in the state of Oaxaca. Materials and methods: The impact was evaluated for two-time horizons (2050 and 2080) and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) under the Had GEM2-ES general atmospheric circulation model. Current and future distribution was modeled with MaxEnt. The distribution of Carpinus tropicalis, Juglans pyriformis, Liquidambar styraciflua, Litsea glaucescens, Magnolia dealbata, Magnolia schiedeana, Ostrya virginiana, Symplocos coccinea, Zinowiewia concinna and Taxus globosa were obtained from the herbarium specimen review. Results and discussion: In RCP 4.5, J. pyriformis, L. styraciflua, L. glaucescens and S. coccinea increased (2.8 % to 20.5 %) their area of distribution. In this scenario, the rest of the species reduced their area by up to 30 % compared to the current distribution. In RCP 8.5-2050, J. pyriformis and O. virginiana had a gain of more than 5 %. All species showed a reduction greater than 10 % under the RCP 8.5-2080 scenario. The models showed area under the curve greater than 0.8 and partial ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) greater than 1.7. Conclusions: Understanding the response of 10 species to climate change will serve as a basis for proposing conservation and monitoring plans, since nine of them are in some category of risk.

The impact of the QBO on the region of the tropical tropopause in QBOi models: Present‐day simulations

AbstractThe processes occurring in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are of great importance for stratosphere–troposphere exchanges and the variability of the Earth's climate. Previous studies demonstrated the increasing ability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in simulating the TTL, depending on factors such as the horizontal and vertical resolution, with the major role for physical parametrizations. In this work we assess the mean state and variability of the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere simulated by 13 AGCMs of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) for the historical period. As these models internally generate quasi‐biennial oscillations (QBOs) of the stratospheric zonal wind, we can analyse the simulated QBO influence on the TTL on interannual time‐scales. We find that model biases in temperature near the tropopause are strongly related to water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere. A source of intermodel spread derives from stratospheric aerosols, as the responses to eruptions differ between those models prescribing volcanic aerosol forcing. The QBO influence on the thermal structure is generally realistic in the equatorial region, but the subtropical response is weak compared with the reanalysis. This is associated with a limited downward penetration of QBO winds, generally smaller QBO meridional widths, and weaker temperature anomalies, which disappear above the tropopause for most models. We discuss the QBO impacts on tropopause pressure and precipitation, characterized by large uncertainties due to the small signal in the observational records and sampling uncertainty. Realistic QBO connection with the troposphere in some models suggests that the underlying physical processes can be correctly simulated. Overall, we find that the QBOi models have limited ability to reproduce the observed modulation of the TTL processes, which is consistent with biases in the vertical and latitudinal extent of the simulated QBOs degrading this connection.

Influences of Internal Forcing on Atmospheric Circulations of Irradiated Giant Planets

Abstract Close-in giant planets with strong stellar irradiation show atmospheric circulation patterns with strong equatorial jets and global-scale stationary waves. So far, almost all modeling works on atmospheric circulations of such giant planets have mainly considered external radiation alone, without taking into account the role of internal heat fluxes or just treating it in very simplified ways. Here, we study atmospheric circulations of strongly irradiated giant planets by considering the effect of internal forcing, which is characterized by small-scale stochastic interior thermal perturbations, using a three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model. We show that the perturbation-excited waves can largely modify atmospheric circulation patterns in the presence of relatively strong internal forcing. Specifically, our simulations demonstrate three circulation regimes: a superrotation regime, a midlatitude-jet regime, and a quasi-periodic oscillation regime, depending on the relative importance of external and internal forcings. It is also found that strong internal forcing can cause noticeable modifications of the thermal phase curves.

Sea ice loss of the Barents-Kara Sea enhances the winter warming over the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is known as one of the most sensitive regions to climate change, and it has experienced accelerated warming in recent decades. However, to what degree the TP warming amplification relates to remote forcing such as sea ice loss in the Arctic sea ice remains unclear. Here, we found that the decline of sea ice concentration over the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) could account for 18–32% of the winter warming over the TP by comparing observational data and ensemble experiments from an atmospheric general circulation model. The reduced BKS sea ice and resultant upward turbulent heat fluxes can intensify a Rossby wave train propagating equatorward to the TP. As a result, the enhanced southwesterlies towards the TP strengthen the warm advection over most parts of the TP and lead to TP warming. In addition, an atmospheric teleconnection between the Arctic and the TP also exists in the interannual variability. That is, a tripole mode in air temperature, with warm centers in the Arctic and TP but a cold center in the mid-high latitudes of the Eurasian continent in between. Our results imply that the BKS sea ice loss could intensify such a tripole mode and thus enhancing the winter TP warming.

Effect of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation on the Madden Julian Oscillation Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

AbstractThe Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the main source of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. MJO modulates rainfall in remote areas in the Southern Hemisphere by exciting tropical and extratropical wave trains. We use newly released reanalysis data to analyze how the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can influence the MJO's effects over the Southern Hemisphere, focusing on precipitation anomalies over South America. The anomalies in the intensity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and precipitation over Southeastern South America during MJO phases 1 and 4 are intensified during the easterly QBO. The extratropical wave train excited by the anomalous convection over the maritime continent during MJO phase 4 is affected by the QBO, with a stronger, better‐defined pattern during westerly QBO. The conclusions are supported by a perturbation experiment of a case study, conducted using a high‐top atmospheric global climate model where the QBO and MJO are controlled.

Precipitation response to Heinrich Event-3 in the northern Indochina as revealed in a high-resolution speleothem record

Heinrich Event-3 (HE-3) differs from other Heinrich Events (HEs) in terms of the strength of its expression in climatic records from different global localities. Here, we present new high resolution δ18O records from a composite speleothem record spanning from 31.5 to 28.4 ka within the HE-3 time interval. The record is obtained from two stalagmites collected from the Thuong Thien cave (TT), northern Vietnam, which exhibit growth rates of 0.12 to 0.68 mm/yr. The TT record shows a pronounced positive excursion of δ18O values of stalagmite in the time interval from 30.8 ka and lasted about one thousand years. Specifically, the δ18O reached maximum between ∼30.3–30.2 ka and returned to low values at 29.5 ka. Both the onset and termination phases of the excursion show gradual changes in δ18O values that form a relatively symmetric ‘V’ shape. The excursion suggests that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), which modulates the climate and hydrology in the region, has endured dramatic weakening in response to HE-3. The timing and duration of the monsoonal decline are consistent with a significant slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC), which probably drove the southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and consequently a decrease in precipitation over the Asian monsoonal region including northern Vietnam. To test the proposed mechanism, we further performed modeling simulations via an atmosphere general circulation model with a coupled slab ocean. Simulated results confirm both the scale and mechanistic connections between cooling in the North Atlantic and changes in precipitation at the Thuong Thien cave locality.