Atmospheric General Circulation Model Research Articles

Equatorial Western–Central Pacific SST Responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation–ENSO Sequence

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, is well known to affect the extratropical climate via atmospheric teleconnections. Extratropical atmospheric variability may in turn influence the occurrence of ENSO events. The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), as the secondary dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, has been recognized as a potential precursor for ENSO development. This study demonstrates that the preexisting winter NPO signal is primarily excited by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial western–central Pacific. During ENSO years with a preceding winter NPO signal, which accounts for approximately 60% of ENSO events observed in 1979–2021, significant SST anomalies emerge in the equatorial western–central Pacific in the preceding autumn and winter. The concurrent presence of local convection anomalies can act as a catalyst for NPO-like atmospheric circulation anomalies. In contrast, during other ENSO years, significant SST anomalies are not observed in the equatorial western–central Pacific during the preceding winter, and correspondingly, the NPO signal is absent. Ensemble simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observed SST anomalies in the tropical western–central Pacific can well reproduce the interannual variability of observed NPO. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the observed NPO–ENSO relationship is that the preceding winter NPO is a companion to ENSO development, driven by the precursory SST signal in the equatorial western–central Pacific. Our results suggest that the lagged relationship between ENSO and the NPO involves a tropical–extratropical two-way coupling rather than a purely stochastic forcing of the extratropical atmosphere on ENSO.

Future projection of tropical cyclone genesis in the Western North pacific using high-resolution GCMs and genesis potential indices

The study employed high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) to simulate tropical cyclones (TCs) and evaluated two TC genesis potential indices in reflecting projected TC changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) under a warming scenario. Both indices accurately represented the seasonal variation of TC genesis frequency (TCGF) and its spatial distribution in historical simulations and observation data. The widely-used TC genesis potential index (χGPI) projected a significant increase in TCGF in response to a warmer ocean surface. However, this projection conflicted with the significant reduction in the model projection due to the dominant control of SST on the χGPI. Higher SST in remote ocean basins often over dominated the destabilization effect of in-situ warmer SST and caused more stable atmospheric conditions in the WNP, resulting in fewer TC occurrences. By contrast, the revised index (χMqGPI), which considers gross moisture condensation, projected a TCGF decrease that more accurately reflected the decreasing trend of TCGF in the warming simulations by AGCM, although the degree of reduction was smaller than that derived directly from TC detection scheme. The results suggest the plausibility of using χMqGPI, based on the results of multimodel coarse-resolution CMIP6 climate models, to project future changes in TCGF in the WNP.

Dominant contribution of atmospheric nonlinearities to ENSO asymmetry and extreme El Niño events

Extreme El Niño events have outsized impacts and strongly contribute to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phase asymmetries. There is currently no consensus on the respective importance of oceanic and atmospheric nonlinearities for those asymmetries. Here, we use atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models that reproduce ENSO asymmetries well to quantify the atmospheric nonlinearities contribution. The linear and nonlinear components of the wind stress response to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are isolated using ensemble atmospheric experiments, and used to force oceanic experiments. The wind stress-SST nonlinearity is dominated by the deep atmospheric convective response to SST. This wind-stress nonlinearity contributes to ~ 40% of the peak amplitude of extreme El Niño events and ~ 55% of the prolonged eastern Pacific warming they generate until the following summer. This large contribution arises because nonlinearities consistently drive equatorial westerly anomalies, while the larger linear component is made less efficient by easterly anomalies in the western Pacific during fall and winter. Overall, wind-stress nonlinearities fully account for the eastern Pacific positive ENSO skewness. Our findings underscore the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events and, more generally, ENSO asymmetry.

Midlatitude Oceanic Fronts Strengthen the Hydrological Cycle Between Cyclones and Anticyclones

AbstractThe Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension and Gulf Stream oceanic frontal zones are characterized by enhanced activity of synoptic‐scale cyclones and anticyclones and vigorous air‐sea heat and moisture exchange in the cold season. However, the time‐mean air‐sea exchange attributed separately to cyclones and anticyclones has not been assessed. Here we quantify cyclonic and anticyclonic contributions around the frontal zones to surface turbulent heat fluxes, precipitation, and the associated hydrological cycle using atmospheric general circulation model experiments with observed and artificially smoothed sea‐surface temperature gradients. The evaluation reveals that precipitation exceeds evaporation climatologically within cyclonic domains while evaporation dominates within anticyclonic domains. These features as well as the net moisture transport from anticyclonic to cyclonic domains are all enhanced by the sharpness of the frontal zones. Oceanic frontal zones thus climatologically act to strengthen the hydrological cycle. These findings aid our understanding of the relationship between midlatitude air‐sea interactions on synoptic‐ and longer‐time scales.

Fast response of global monsoon area and precipitation to regional carbonaceous aerosols

Monsoon exerts a significant social and economic impact on billions of people around the world. Changes in global monsoon (GM) rainfall under global warming have been well studied; however, the understanding of GM connection with regional aerosol emissions is limited. Using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we attempt to quantify the response of global monsoon area and precipitation to the removal of carbonaceous aerosols over North America (AM), North Africa (AF), Europe (EU), and Asia (AS). Response to the emission removal, the global average aerosol optical depths (AOD) are reduced by 2.21%, 1.8%, 1.16%, and 3.8% respectively. A southward shift in the GM domain is observed, responding to changes in magnitude and position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, when carbonaceous aerosols are removed over these regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The percentage departure in the area-averaged GM precipitation is found to be 4-fold in magnitude for the removal of emissions over EU when compared to that of AM and AF. A shrinkage in the GM area is also observed, which is maximum for EU (∼−30%) compared to AM and AF (∼−25%). The change in GM precipitation and area are found to be the least and opposite in nature for AS emissions. This study provides insight into the regional nature of carbonaceous aerosol effects on global precipitation.

Amazon savannization and climate change are projected to increase dry season length and temperature extremes over Brazil

Land use change and atmospheric composition, two drivers of climate change, can interact to affect both local and remote climate regimes. Previous works have considered the effects of greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere and the effects of Amazon deforestation in atmospheric general circulation models. In this study, we investigate the impacts of the Brazilian Amazon savannization and global warming in a fully coupled ocean-land-sea ice-atmosphere model simulation. We find that both savannization and global warming individually lengthen the dry season and reduce annual rainfall over large tracts of South America. The combined effects of land use change and global warming resulted in a mean annual rainfall reduction of 44% and a dry season length increase of 69%, when averaged over the Amazon basin, relative to the control run. Modulation of inland moisture transport due to savannization shows the largest signal to explain the rainfall reduction and increase in dry season length over the Amazon and Central-West. The combined effects of savannization and global warming resulted in maximum daily temperature anomalies, reaching values of up to 14 °C above the current climatic conditions over the Amazon. Also, as a consequence of both climate drivers, both soil moisture and surface runoff decrease over most of the country, suggesting cascading negative future impacts on both agriculture production and hydroelectricity generation.

Modeling Natural Tritium in Precipitation and its Dependence on Decadal Solar Activity Variations Using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model MIROC5‐Iso

AbstractModeling tritium content in water presents a meaningful way to evaluate the representation of the water cycle in climate models as it traces fluxes within and between the reservoirs involved in the water cycle (stratosphere, troposphere, and ocean). In this study, we present the implementation of natural tritium in water in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) MIROC5‐iso and its simulation for the period 1979–2018. Owing to recently published tritium production calculations, we were able to investigate, for the first time, the influence of natural tritium production related to the 11‐yr solar cycle on tritium in precipitation. MIROC5‐iso correctly simulates continental, latitudinal, and altitude effects on tritium in precipitation. The seasonal tritium content peaks, linked to stratosphere‐troposphere exchanges, are accurately simulated in terms of timing, even though MIROC5‐iso underestimates the amplitude of the changes. Decadal tritium concentration variations in precipitation owing to the 11‐yr solar cycle are well simulated in MIROC5‐iso, in agreement with the observations at Vostok in Antarctica for example, Finally, our simulations revealed that the internal climate variability plays an important role in tritium in polar precipitation. Owing to its influence on the south polar vortex, the Southern Annular Mode enhances the effect of the production component on tritium in East Antarctic precipitation. In Greenland, we found an east‐west contrast in the detection of the 11‐yr solar cycle in tritium in precipitation owing to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on humidity conditions.

Assessment of climate biases in OpenIFS version 43r3 across model horizontal resolutions and time steps

Abstract. We examine the impact of horizontal resolution and model time step on the climate of the OpenIFS version 43r3 atmospheric general circulation model. A series of simulations for the period 1979–2019 are conducted with various horizontal resolutions (i.e. ∼100, ∼50, and ∼25 km) while maintaining the same time step (i.e. 15 min) and using different time steps (i.e. 60, 30, and 15 min) at 100 km horizontal resolution. We find that the surface zonal wind bias is significantly reduced over certain regions such as the Southern Ocean and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and in tropical and subtropical regions at a high horizontal resolution (i.e. ∼25 km). Similar improvement is evident too when using a coarse-resolution model (∼100 km) with a smaller time step (i.e. 30 and 15 min). We also find improvements in Rossby wave amplitude and phase speed, as well as in weather regime patterns, when a smaller time step or higher horizontal resolution is used. The improvement in the wind bias when using the shorter time step is mostly due to an increase in shallow and mid-level convection that enhances vertical mixing in the lower troposphere. The enhanced mixing allows frictional effects to influence a deeper layer and reduces wind and wind speed throughout the troposphere. However, precipitation biases generally increase with higher horizontal resolutions or smaller time steps, whereas the surface air temperature bias exhibits a small improvement over North America and the eastern Eurasian continent. We argue that the bias improvement in the highest-horizontal-resolution (i.e. ∼25 km) configuration benefits from a combination of both the enhanced horizontal resolution and the shorter time step. In summary, we demonstrate that, by reducing the time step in the coarse-resolution (∼100 km) OpenIFS model, one can alleviate some climate biases at a lower cost than by increasing the horizontal resolution.

Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics

Abstract. Improving our understanding of the controls on Antarctic precipitation is critical for gaining insights into past and future polar and global environmental changes. Here we develop innovative water tracing diagnostics in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. These tracers provide new detailed information on moisture source locations and properties of Antarctic precipitation. In the preindustrial simulation, annual mean Antarctic precipitation originating from the open ocean has a source latitude range of 49–35∘ S, a source sea surface temperature range of 9.8–16.3 ∘C, a source 2 m relative humidity range of 75.6 %–83.3 %, and a source 10 m wind velocity (vel10) range of 10.1 to 11.3 m s−1. These results are consistent with estimates from existing literature. Central Antarctic precipitation is sourced from more equatorward (distant) sources via elevated transport pathways compared to coastal Antarctic precipitation. This has been attributed to a moist isentropic framework; i.e. poleward vapour transport tends to follow constant equivalent potential temperature. However, we find notable deviations from this tendency especially in the lower troposphere, likely due to radiative cooling. Heavy precipitation is sourced by longer-range moisture transport: it comes from 2.9∘ (300 km, averaged over Antarctica) more equatorward (distant) sources compared to the rest of precipitation. Precipitation during negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) also comes from more equatorward moisture sources (by 2.4∘, averaged over Antarctica) compared to precipitation during positive SAM phases, likely due to amplified planetary waves during negative SAM phases. Moreover, source vel10 of annual mean precipitation is on average 2.1 m s−1 higher than annual mean vel10 at moisture source locations from which the precipitation originates. This shows that the evaporation of moisture driving Antarctic precipitation occurs under windier conditions than average. We quantified this dynamic control of Southern Ocean surface wind on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation. Overall, the innovative water tracing diagnostics enhance our understanding of the controlling factors of Antarctic precipitation.

Sensitivities of atmospheric composition and climate to altitude and latitude of hypersonic aircraft emissions

Abstract. Hydrogen-powered hypersonic aircraft are designed to travel in the middle stratosphere at approximately 30–40 km. These aircraft can have a considerable impact on climate-relevant species like stratospheric water vapor, ozone, and methane and thus would contribute to climate warming. The impact of hypersonic aircraft emissions on atmospheric composition and, in turn, on radiation fluxes differs strongly depending on cruise altitude. However, in contrast to variations in the altitude of emission, differences from variations in the latitude of emission are currently unknown. Using an atmospheric chemistry general circulation model, we show that a variation in the latitude of emission can have a larger effect on perturbations and stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing than a variation in the altitude of emission. Our results include the individual impacts of water vapor and nitrogen oxide emissions, as well as unburned hydrogen, on middle-atmospheric water vapor, ozone, and methane and the resulting radiative forcing. Water vapor perturbation lifetime continues the known tropospheric increase with altitude and reaches almost 6 years in the middle stratosphere. Our results demonstrate how atmospheric composition changes caused by emissions of hypersonic aircraft are controlled by large-scale processes like the Brewer–Dobson circulation and, depending on the latitude of emission, local phenomena like polar stratospheric clouds. The analysis includes a model evaluation of ozone and water vapor with satellite data and a novel approach to reduce simulated years by one-third. A prospect for future hypersonic research is the analysis of seasonal sensitivities and simulations with emissions from combustion of liquefied natural gas instead of liquid hydrogen.

A distinct and reproducible teleconnection pattern over North America during extreme El Niño events

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections are an important predictability source for extratropical seasonal climate forecasts. Previous studies suggest that the ENSO teleconnection pattern depends on the ENSO phase (El Niño vs. La Niña) and/or Sea Surface Temperature (SST) pattern (central Pacific vs. eastern Pacific El Niño events). Observations and ensemble simulations with the CNRM-CM6.1 atmospheric general circulation model indicate that only extreme El Niño events (e.g. 1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016) display a statistically significant eastward shift relative to the well-known Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern that occurs during both central and eastern Pacific moderate El Niño or during La Niña. This specific teleconnection pattern emerges when equatorial SST anomalies are both eastward-shifted and sufficiently large to exceed the deep atmospheric convection threshold over most of the eastern Pacific, resulting in a basin-wide reorganization of tropospheric heat sources. It yields> 0.5 std wet conditions over Western United States (74% likelihood) as well as> 0.5 std warm anomalies over Canada and the Northern United States (71% likelihood), with more consistency across events and ensemble members than for any other El Niño or La Niña type. These findings hold important implications for the seasonal forecasting of El Niño’s impacts on the North American climate.

Impact of spring land-surface conditions over the Tibetan Plateau on the early summer Asian monsoon using an AGCM large ensemble

AbstractInfluence of land-surface memory effects over the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian summer monsoon has long been studied, but not quantified because of the difficulty of extracting only these effects from observational data. This study examines the impact of spring land-surface conditions, including surface air temperature (SAT) and snow cover, over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding regions on the early stage of the Asian summer monsoon using large-ensemble experiments produced by an atmospheric global climate model (AGCM). The results show that the above-normal SAT over and around the Tibetan Plateau in May can enhance June monsoon circulation without the sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. The physical mechanism behind this involves warmed surface air over the plateau enhancing the north–south SAT gradient, leading to strengthening the Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation. Inter-ensemble correlation analysis indicated that SAT warming over the plateau is clearly associated with upper-tropospheric anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies in May. Also, although winter land-surface signals do not persist until late spring, SAT anomalies in March tend to persist until May, explaining 10–20% of the total SAT variance in May. Interestingly, the spring SAT impacts on June monsoon circulations vary interannually, indicating that the contribution of the land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling process to interannual monsoon variability differs from year to year. Active L–A coupling years tend to coincide with cooler SSTs with anomalous low-level divergence and upper-level convergence over and around the Maritime continent, implying that SST forcing is associated with the L–A coupling strength. Specifically, in May of the developing stage of monsoon circulation, the weak Walker circulation over the equatorial and northern Indian Ocean and undeveloped monsoon circulation are suitable for the L–A coupling to influence the development of the monsoon circulation effectively. However, the well-known oceanic events, such as El Ni$${\widetilde{n}}$$ n ~ o, are found to be less connected with the interannual L–A coupling variations.

Oceanic Influence and Lapse Rate Changes Dominate the Recent Amplified Saharan Warming

AbstractThe surface air temperature (SAT) over the Sahara Desert has increased at a much faster rate than average tropical land in recent decades. This study examines the relative roles of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) change in the observed Saharan temperature increase during boreal warm season from 1979 to 2020 using atmospheric general circulation model simulations. It is found that the SST forcing dominates the observed Saharan warming. Further analysis shows that the warming ocean forces the Saharan SAT increase by moving more energy to the Sahara Desert, while the water vapor feedback plays a secondary role. The reason for the stronger Saharan warming than the average tropical land given the same SST forcing is also explored. We found that the largest contributor to the warming contrast is the lapse‐rate feedback, which is attributable to the difference in the vertical warming profile.

The Study of Internal Gravity Waves in the Earth’s Atmosphere by Radio Occultations: A Review

Internal gravity waves (IGWs) in the middle atmosphere are the main source of mesoscale fluctuations of wind and temperature. The parameterization of IGWs and study of their climatology is necessary for the development of global atmospheric circulation models. In this review, we focus on the application of Radio Occultation (RO) observations for the retrieval of IGW parameters. (1) The simplest approach employs the retrieved temperature profiles. It is based on the fact that IGWs are highly anisotropic structures and can be accurately retrieved by RO. The basic assumption is that all the temperature fluctuations are caused by IGWs. The smoothed background temperature profile defines the the Brunt–Väisälä frequency, which, together with the temperature fluctuations, defines the IGW specific potential energy. Many studies have derived the distribution and climatology of potential energy, which is one of the most important characteristics of IGWs. (2) More detailed analysis of the temperature profiles is based on the derivation of the temperature fluctuation spectra. For saturated IGWs, the spectra must obey the power law with an exponent of −3. Such spectra are obtained by using Wave Optical (WO) processing. (3) More advanced analysis employs space–frequency analysis. It is based on phase-sensitive techniques like cross S- or wavelet transforms in order to identify propagating IGWs. (4) Another direction is the IGW parameter estimate from separate temperature profiles applying the stability condition in terms of the Richardson number. In this framework, a necessary condition is formulated that defines whether or not the temperature fluctuations can be related to IGW events. The temperature profile retrieval involves integral transforms and filtering that constitute the observation filter. (5) A simpler filter is implemented by the analysis of the RO amplitude fluctuation spectra, based on the diffraction theory in the framework of the phase screen and weak fluctuation approximations. The two spectral parameters, the external scale and the structural characteristic, define the specific potential energy. This approach allows the derivation of the spacial and seasonal distributions of IGW activity. We conclude that the success of IGW study by RO is stimulated by a large number of RO observations and advanced techniques based on Fourier and space–time analysis, physical equations describing IGWs, and diffraction theory.

Process‐Based Intercomparison of Water Isotope‐Enabled Models and Reanalysis Nudging Effects

AbstractThe products from the Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group, Phase 2, are currently used for numerous studies, allowing water isotope model‐data comparisons with various isotope‐enabled atmospheric general circulation model (AGCMs) outputs. However, the simulations under this framework were performed using different parameterizations and forcings. Therefore, a uniform experimental design with state‐of‐the‐art AGCMs is required to interpret isotope observations rigorously. Here, we evaluate the outputs from three isotope‐enabled numerical models nudged by three different reanalysis products and investigate the ability of the isotope‐enabled AGCMs to reproduce the spatial and temporal patterns of water isotopic composition observed at the surface and in the atmospheric airborne water. Through correlation analyses at various spatial and temporal scales, we found that the model's performance depends on the model or reanalysis we use, the observations we compare, and the vertical levels we select. Moreover, we employed the stable isotope mass balance method to conduct decomposition analyses on the ratio of isotopic changes in the atmosphere. Our goal was to elucidate the spread in simulated atmospheric column δ18O, which is influenced by factors such as evaporation, precipitation, and horizontal moisture flux. Satisfying the law of conservation of water isotopes, this budget method is expected to explain various fractionation phenomena in atmospheric meteorological and climatic events. It also aims to highlight the spreads in modeled isotope results among different experiments using multiple models and reanalyses, which are primarily dominated by uncertainties in moisture flux and precipitation, respectively.

Contrasting Seasonal Isotopic Signatures of Near‐Surface Atmospheric Water Vapor in the Central Arctic During the MOSAiC Campaign

AbstractThe Arctic is experiencing unprecedented moistening which is expected to have far‐reaching impact on global climate and weather patterns. However, it remains unclear whether this newly sourced moisture originates locally from ice‐free ocean regions or is advected from lower latitudes. In this study, we use water vapor isotope measurements in combination with trajectory‐based diagnostics and an isotope‐enabled atmosphere general circulation model, to assess seasonal shifts in moisture sources and transport pathways in the Arctic. Continuous measurements of near‐surface vapor, δ18O, and δD were performed onboard RV Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition from October 2019 to September 2020. Combining this isotope data set with meteorological observations reveals that the spatiotemporal evolution of δ18O mimics changes in local temperature and humidity at synoptic to seasonal time scales, while corresponding d‐excess changes suggest a seasonal shift in the origin of moisture. Simulation results from the particle dispersion model FLEXPART support these findings, indicating that summer moisture originates from nearby open ocean, while winter moisture comes from more remote sources with longer residence time over sea‐ice. Results from a nudged ECHAM6‐wiso simulation also indicate that evaporative processes from the ocean surface reproduce summer isotope values, but are insufficient to explain measured winter isotope values. Our study provides the first isotopic characterization of Central Arctic moisture over the course of an entire year, helping to differentiate the influence of local processes versus large‐scale vapor transport on Arctic moistening. Future process‐based investigations should focus on assessing the non‐equilibrium isotopic fractionation during airmass transformation over sea‐ice.

Resonance between projected Tibetan Plateau surface darkening and Arctic climate change

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts a profound influence on global climate over million-year timescales due to its past uplift. However, whether the ongoing climate changes over the TP, particularly the persistent reduction in its local albedo (referred to as “TP surface darkening”), can exert global impacts remains elusive. In this study, a state-of-the-art coupled land–atmosphere global climate model has been employed to scrutinize the impact of TP darkening on polar climate changes. Results indicate that the projected TP darkening has the potential to generate a stationary Rossby wave train, thereby modulating the atmospheric circulation in the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and instigating a dipole-like surface air temperature anomaly pattern around the Arctic region. An additional experiment suggests that the projected Arctic warming may in return warm the TP, thus forming a bi-directional linkage between these two climate systems. Given their association with vast ice reservoirs, the elucidation of this mechanism in our study is crucial in advancing our comprehension of Earth system climate projections.

Diversity of Lagged Relationships in Global Means of Surface Temperatures and Radiative Budgets for CMIP6 piControl Simulations

Abstract Radiative feedbacks over interannual time scales can be potentially useful for global warming estimation. However, the diversity of the lead–lag relationships in global mean surface temperature (GMST) and net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere (GMTOA) create uncertainty during the estimation of radiative feedbacks. In this study, key physical processes controlling lead–lag relationships were elucidated by categorizing preindustrial control simulations of CMIP6 into three groups based on cross correlation values of GMTOA against GMST at lag 0 and lag +1 year. The diversity in the lead–lag relationships was primarily caused by the climatological state difference of the atmosphere over the equatorial Pacific, which modulated the strength of convective activity and sensitivity of low-level clouds. Diminished atmospheric stability caused enhanced convective activity, more efficient energy release, and smaller lags. In addition, enhanced stability in the lower atmosphere rendered the low-level clouds more sensitive to sea surface temperature changes and considerably delayed the radiative response. The climatological state difference of the atmosphere resulted from model-inherent atmospheric conditions. These findings suggest that the diversity of lead–lag relationships of GMST and GMTOA over interannual time scales could represent the characteristics of general atmospheric circulation models and possible solutions of the actual atmosphere, which could also affect long-term feedback features.

From atmospheric water isotopes measurement to firn core interpretation in Adélie Land: a case study for isotope-enabled atmospheric models in Antarctica

Abstract. In a context of global warming and sea level rise acceleration, it is key to estimate the evolution of the atmospheric hydrological cycle and temperature in polar regions, which directly influence the surface mass balance of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets. Direct observations are available from satellite data for the last 40 years and a few weather data since the 1950s in Antarctica. One of the best ways to access longer records is to use climate proxies in firn or ice cores. The water isotopic composition in these cores is widely used to reconstruct past temperature variations. We need to progress in our understanding of the influence of the atmospheric hydrological cycle on the water isotopic composition of ice cores. First, we present a 2-year-long time series of vapor and precipitation isotopic composition measurement at Dumont d’Urville Station, in Adélie Land. We characterize diurnal variations of meteorological parameters (temperature, atmospheric water mixing ratio (hereafter humidity) and δ18O) for the different seasons and determine the evolution of key relationships (δ18O versus temperature or humidity) throughout the year: we find that the temperature vs. δ18O relationship is dependent on synoptic events dynamics in winter contrary to summer. Then, this data set is used to evaluate the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6-wiso (model version with embedded water stable isotopes) in a coastal region of Adélie Land where local conditions are controlled by strong katabatic winds which directly impact the isotopic signal. We show that a combination of continental (79 %) and oceanic (21 %) grid cells leads model outputs (temperature, humidity and δ18O) to nicely fit the observations, at different timescales (i.e., seasonal to synoptic). Therefore we demonstrate the added value of long-term water vapor isotopic composition records for model evaluation. Then, as a clear link is found between the isotopic composition of water vapor and precipitation, we assess how isotopic models can help interpret short firn cores. In fact, a virtual firn core built from ECHAM-wiso outputs explains much more of the variability observed in S1C1 isotopic record than a virtual firn core built from temperature only. Yet, deposition and post-deposition effects strongly affect the firn isotopic signal and probably account for most of the remaining misfits between archived firn signal and virtual firn core based on atmospheric modeling.

Effects of Climate Change on Rice Yield in Northern Areas of Iran: Humidity as a Large Variability of Climate

Climate has a significant effect on social and economic activities, and currently is a major problem, especially in agricultural yields. This study used two types of climatic and agricultural data. To simulate the climate for the next 30 years (2021-2050) from daily temperature and precipitation data for the base period 1986-2015, Reanalysis Atmospheric Data (NCEP) as observational predictors data and CanESM2 Atmospheric General Circulation Model data with two scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 were used as large-scale predictors. The data is related to the Rasht Rice Research Center field experiments. The results abstained from simulations showed that in future climate conditions, the average temperature would be 0.7 to 0.9°C, and precipitation would be 20 to 70 mm in the study area based on both emission scenarios compared to the base period (1986-2015) increases. The effect of climate change on the rice yield on the planting date of June 5, especially in the eastern parts of the region, is unfavourable in the future. At the regional level, in all planting dates, the length of the rice growth period in the future period (2021-2050) will decrease by 2 to 4 days compared to the base period. The planting date treatment of 5 May with a density level of 50 plants per square meter, a nitrogen fertiliser level of 195 kg per hectare with an intermittent irrigation regime (8-day cycle) is the most suitable adaptation strategy to reduce the negative effects of climate change and increase rice yield in the entire surface of the coastal area in the Caspian Sea.