Atmospheric Demand Research Articles

Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts

Abstract. In this paper future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. We use an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative under moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) and Paris Agreement (RCP2.6) emission scenarios. The climatic water balance and its components (rainfall, snow melt, glacier melt and atmospheric evaporative demand) are used as indicators of surface water availability, and we focus on different altitudinal classes (lowland, mountainous and high alpine) to depict a variety of processes in complex terrain. Apart from analysing the mean changes of these components, we also pursue a hazard risk approach by estimating future changes in return periods of meteorological drought events of a given magnitude as observed in the reference period. The results show, in general, wetter conditions over the course of the 21st century over Austria on an annual basis compared to the reference period 1981–2010 (e.g. RCP4.5 +107 mm, RCP2.6 +63 mm for the period 2071–2100). Considering seasonal differences, winter and spring are getting wetter due to an increase in precipitation and a higher fraction of rainfall as a consequence of rising temperatures. In summer only little changes in the mean of the climatic water balance conditions are visible across the model ensemble (e.g. RCP4.5 ±0 mm, RCP2.6 −2 mm for the period 2071–2100). On the contrary, by analysing changes in return periods of drought events, an increasing risk of moderate and extreme drought events during summer is apparent, a signal emerging within the climate system along with increasing warming.

Energy Surplus and an Atmosphere‐Land‐Surface “Tug of War” Control Future Evapotranspiration

AbstractThe 21st century evapotranspiration (ET) trends over the continental U.S. are assessed using innovative, energy‐based principles. Annual ET is projected to increase with high confidence at the rate of 20 mm for every 1℃ of rise in near‐surface air temperature, or 0.45 or 0.98 mm/year/year, depending on the emission scenario. The ET trajectory is dominated (58%) by the increase of land‐surface net radiative energy. An enhancement of the fraction of energy taken up by ET becomes a more important controller (53%) in late 21st century, under the high emission scenario. This increase is explained by the “tug of war” between atmospheric vapor demand and land‐surface ability to supply water. An assessment of future water availability (precipitation minus ET) shows no significant changes at the continental scale. This outcome nevertheless hides strong spatial variability, emphasizing the role of ET in shaping the distribution of water availability among human populations.

Differences in mucilage properties and stomatal sensitivity of locally adapted Zea mays in relation with precipitation seasonality and vapour pressure deficit regime of their native environment.

With ongoing climate change and the increase in extreme weather events, especially droughts, the challenge of maintaining food security is becoming ever greater. Locally adapted landraces of crops represent a valuable source of adaptation to stressful environments. In the light of future droughts-both by altered soil water supply and increasing atmospheric water demand (vapor pressure deficit [VPD])-plants need to improve their water efficiency. To do so, plants can enhance their access to soil water by improving rhizosphere hydraulic conductivity via the exudation of mucilage. Furthermore, plants can reduce transpirational water loss via stomatal regulation. Although the role of mucilage and stomata regulation on plant water management have been extensively studied, little is known about a possible coordination between root mucilage properties and stomatal sensitivity as well as abiotic drivers shaping the development of drought resistant trait suits within landraces. Mucilage properties and stomatal sensitivity of eight Mexican landraces of Zea mays in contrast with one inbred line were first quantified under controlled conditions and second related to water demand and supply at their respective site of origin. Mucilage physical properties-namely, viscosity, contact angle, and surface tension-differed between the investigated maize varieties. We found strong influences of precipitation seasonality, thus plant water availability, on mucilage production (R 2= .88, p< .01) and mucilage viscosity (R 2= .93, p< .01). Further, stomatal sensitivity to increased atmospheric water demand was related to mucilage viscosity and contact angle, both of which are crucial in determining mucilage's water repellent, thus maladaptive, behavior upon soil drying. The identification of landraces with pre-adapted suitable trait sets with regard to drought resistance is of utmost importance, for example, trait combinations such as exhibited in one of the here investigated landraces. Our results suggest a strong environmental selective force of seasonality in plant water availability on mucilage properties as well as regulatory stomatal effects to avoid mucilage's maladaptive potential upon drying and likely delay critical levels of hydraulic dysfunction. By this, landraces from highly seasonal climates may exhibit beneficial mucilage and stomatal traits to prolong plant functioning under edaphic drought. These findings may help breeders to efficiently screen for local landraces with pre-adaptations to drought to ultimately increase crop yield resistance under future climatic variability.

Combining root and soil hydraulics in macroscopic representations of root water uptake

AbstractPlant water uptake and plant and soil water status are important for the soil water balance and plant growth. They depend on atmospheric water demand and the accessibility of soil water to plant roots, which is in turn related to the hydraulic properties of the root system and the soil around root segments. We present a simulation model that describes water flow in the soil–plant system mechanistically considering both root and soil hydraulic properties. We developed an approach to upscale three‐dimensional (3D) flow in the soil toward root segments of a 3D root architecture to a model that considers one‐dimensional flow between horizontal soil layers and radial flow to root segments in that layer. The upscaled model couples upscaled linear flow equations in the root system with an analytical solution of the nonlinear radial flow equation between the soil and roots. The upscaled model avoids simplifying assumptions about root hydraulic properties and water potential drops near roots made in, respectively, soil‐ and root‐centered models. Xylem water potentials and soil–root interface potentials are explicitly simulated and show, respectively, large variations with depth and large deviations from bulk soil water potentials under dry soil conditions. Accounting for hydraulic gradients in the soil around root segments led to an earlier but slower reduction of transpiration during a drought period and a better plant water status with higher nighttime plant water potentials.

Effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on canopy transpiration for two coniferous forests in the Loess Plateau of China

Soil moisture (VWC) and atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) have an increasing impact on tree transpiration and productivity with climate change. However, the interaction of VWC and VPD on canopy transpiration (Ec) of plantations is still unclear, especially in water-scarce areas. Here, we selected Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. and Platycladus orientalis (L.) Franco plantations in the semiarid loess hills of China to examine the impacts of soil and atmospheric water conditions on Ec during the growing seasons (May–September) of 2015–2020. The results showed that the magnitudes of Ec were similar in the two plantations throughout the study period. The lowest Ec occurred in September because of little precipitation and low atmospheric evaporative demand, while Ec was highest in July due to the increase in soil water availability and atmospheric evaporative demand. There were obvious inflection points in the response relationship between VWC and VPD with Ec for both plantations. Under non-drought conditions, Ec reached a maximum in both plantations and was mainly impacted by solar radiation (Rs) and air temperature. As VPD increased, Rs still was the dominant factor, but canopy conductance decreased significantly, resulting in negative correlations between Ec and VPD. Under soil drought and compound drought conditions, Ec was mainly controlled by Rs and VWC, and the inhibitory effect of VPD on Ec was enhanced. In addition, the ratio of Ec to precipitation was close to 50% for both plantations at the interannual scale. Considering that soil water depletion in the Loess Plateau will accelerate with climate change and increasing drought events, the increasing water use stress will further hinder tree gas exchange, inhibiting tree growth. It is thus necessary to pay special attention to the impact of soil and atmospheric drought on water use for forest management in the Loess Plateau and similar regions of the world.

Continuous increase in evaporative demand shortened the growing season of European ecosystems in the last decade

Despite previous reports on European growing seasons lengthening due to global warming, evidence shows that this trend has been reversing in the past decade due to increased transpiration needs. To asses this, we used an innovative method along with space-based observations to determine the timing of greening and dormancy and then to determine existing trends of them and causes. Early greening still occurs, albeit at slower rates than before. However, a recent (2011–2020) shift in the timing of dormancy has caused the season length to decrease back to 1980s levels. This shortening of season length is attributed primarily to higher atmospheric water demand in summer that suppresses transpiration even for soil moisture levels as of previous years. Transpiration suppression implies that vegetation is unable to meet the high transpiration needs. Our results have implications for future management of European ecosystems (e.g., net carbon balance and water and energy exchange with atmosphere) in a warmer world.

A Method for Identifying the Dominant Meteorological Factors of Atmospheric Evaporative Demand in Mid‐Long Term

AbstractTo better understand the changes in the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) in the context of global warming, the anomaly contribution analysis is presented to estimate mid‐long term contributions of meteorological factors to the AED. The Pearson correlation coefficient (RP) between the total contribution (ψ) of meteorological factors and the relative variation (ϕ) of the AED, and the Sen's trend slope (βS) of (ϕ, ψ) scatters are used to evaluate the applicability of the method. The smaller the values of |1 − RP| and |1 − βS|, the more applicable the method is. To validate the method, the reference crop evapotranspiration is employed as a proxy for the AED. The multi‐year contribution analysis is used as a comparison approach, which can only investigate the dominant meteorological factors of the AED in long term. Moreover, the Huaihe River basin of China is taken as a case study. Results show that (a) the values of |1 − RP| and |1 − βS| in mid‐long term are less than 0.1 in most cases when applying the anomaly contribution analysis, and the mid‐long term contribution processes of meteorological factors to the AED are clearly demonstrated; and (b) the wind speed and sunshine hours are the two most dominant factors (the total absolute contribution exceeds 60%) in long term, but they are not always the dominant factors in mid‐long term (e.g., wind speed in summer, and sunshine hours in winter). Therefore, the anomaly contribution analysis is a reasonable and effective method, which can help to gain insights into the changes in the AED.

Anthropogenic Climate Change Negatively Impacts Vegetation and Forage Conditions in the Greater Four Corners Region

AbstractThe Southwestern U.S. has been in a megadrought for the past two decades, stressing vegetation across the region and leading to poor forage conditions on rangelands. How has human‐induced climate change affected air temperatures and atmospheric evaporative demand in the greater Four Corners region of the Southwest, and what have the corresponding impacts been to vegetative productivity? We address this question via a multi‐step climate change detection and attribution analysis. We first relate evaporative demand (quantified by Vapor Pressure Deficit, or VPD) and precipitation to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in six unique plant‐precipitation zones. VPD is strongly negatively related to NDVI, and the strength of this relation is similar in magnitude to precipitation. We then use a large ensemble of climate change simulations to estimate the magnitude of VPD increases attributable to human‐induced climate change. We find that modest increases in air temperatures have led to large increases in VPD, with the influence of climate change about twice the inter‐annual standard deviation by 2020. Finally, we estimate the reductions in NDVI due to increased VPD and present the reductions in terms of total annual Aboveground Net Primary Productivity. We conclude that human‐induced warming has roughly doubled the magnitude of recent vegetation deficits, especially in mid‐precipitation areas (receiving 250–500 mm of precipitation annually), concentrated in New Mexico. These results indicate that increased temperatures from human‐caused climate change are having persistent and damaging impacts on vegetation productivity, with significant implications for ranchers and other land users in the region.

Ensemble of CMIP6 derived reference and potential evapotranspiration with radiative and advective components

Assessing changes in future aridity requires an understanding of variations in the atmospheric demand for water. Such assessments are often driven by estimations of potential evapotranspiration (ETP) and/or reference evapotranspiration (ET0), yet no comprehensive and validated estimate of these climate metrics exists to date from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). Here we describe the development and validation of a published dataset of global monthly estimates of the Penman-Monteith derived ET0, its advective and radiation components, Priestley-Taylor derived ETP, and vapor pressure deficit from 16 CMIP6 projections and four emissions scenarios. Historical validation of the ensemble of CMIP6 evaporative demand shows general agreement with observationally-derived baselines of ET0 and ETP from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ERA5-Land reanalysis products, with GCM biases driven primarily by regional differences in modeled humidity and advective contributions to ET0. Overall, evaporative demand is projected to increase across all emissions scenarios, with the largest increases over polar regions, and with a larger contribution from advection particularly for regions with higher baseline ET0.

Evaluation of machine learning models for prediction of daily reference evapotranspiration in semi-arid India

Reference evapotranspiration (ET ) is controlled by climatic factors; hence, its estimation provides an idea 0 about the atmospheric demand of water. Machine learning techniques like elastic net (ELNET), K-nearest neighbours (KNN), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), partial least squares regression (PSLR), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), XGBoost and cubist were employed to predict daily reference evapotranspiration based on daily weather parameters of twenty years. Penman-Monteith method was used as the reference method for ET estimation. All models performed well during calibration showing 0 higher coefficient of determination (R2) which ranged from 0.97 (for PLSR) to 1 (for cubist models). Mean absolute error during calibration ranges from 0.027 mm d-1 for cubist to 0.607 mm d-1 for ELNET. Cubist model (R2 = 1, MAE = 0.017 mm d-1, RMSE = 0.027 mm d-1) outperformed other models during the calibration. During validation, the coefficient of determination (R2) for the machine learning models varied from 0.819 to 1, RMSE varied from 0.06 to 0.60 mm d-1 and MAE varied from 0.031 to 0.38 mm d-1. Based on statistical parameters, best performance was observed for cubist model (R2 = 1, RMSE = 0.06 mm d-1, MAE = 0.031 mm d-1) among the studied machine learning models for the prediction of reference evapotranspiration. Hence, the cubist model may be used to estimate daily reference evapotranspiration for the studied region.

Transpiration response to soil drying versus increasing vapor pressure deficit in crops: physical and physiological mechanisms and key plant traits.

The water deficit experienced by crops is a function of atmospheric water demand (vapor pressure deficit) and soil water supply over the whole crop cycle. We summarize typical transpiration response patterns to soil and atmospheric drying and the sensitivity to plant hydraulic traits. We explain the transpiration response patterns using a soil-plant hydraulic framework. In both cases of drying, stomatal closure is triggered by limitations in soil-plant hydraulic conductance. However, traits impacting the transpiration response differ between the two drying processes and act at different time scales. A low plant hydraulic conductance triggers an earlier restriction in transpiration during increasing vapor pressure deficit. During soil drying, the impact of the plant hydraulic conductance is less obvious. It is rather a decrease in the belowground hydraulic conductance (related to soil hydraulic properties and root length density) that is involved in transpiration down-regulation. The transpiration response to increasing vapor pressure deficit has a daily time scale. In the case of soil drying, it acts on a seasonal scale. Varieties that are conservative in water use on a daily scale may not be conservative over longer time scales (e.g. during soil drying). This potential independence of strategies needs to be considered in environment-specific breeding for yield-based drought tolerance.

Transpiration rates decline under limited moisture supply along hillslopes in a humid karst terrain

Topographic positions can mediate subsurface water availability, but its effects on tree transpiration are controversial. In humid karst regions, climax forests are usually not limited by moisture supply, even at the summit, through absorbing water from deep layers. However, little is known on the transpiration pattern and its limiting factor on the shrubland widely distributed along the karst hillslopes. In the current study, Rhus chinensis, a widely spread constructive species in natural restoration was selected. Meteorological factors, 0–300 cm soil–epikarst moisture, sap flow, and root water uptake were studied during an entire growing season to assess how hillslope positions affected transpiration. We found the mean water content in uphill was only around 60 % of that in downhill, indicating a contrasting water supply along the slope. However, there were no significant differences in the xylem isotopic composition and lc–excess which suggested the similar water uptake strategies in both uphill and downhill. R. chinensis primarily relied on the soil water rather than epikarst water (groundwater) along the hillslope because of the MixSIAR model results and more negative lc–excess values (−13.18 ‰). R. chinensis exhibited decreases of nearly half in the transpiration rate and amount in uphill compared to those in downhill. In downhill with sufficient water availability, transpiration followed the variation in atmospheric water demand. In uphill, a poor moisture supply limited tree transpiration and its response to atmospheric water demand. Our findings revealed that the early successional species did not entirely depend on atmospheric water demand, absorbing deep epikarst water as the mature forest. The transpiration rates of those species declined by nearly half to adapt to the water–limited environment along the hillslope in the humid karst region. This study can contribute to the evaluation of eco–hydrological functions during natural restoration.

Ecohydrologic Dynamics of Rock Moisture in a Montane Catchment of the Colorado Front Range

AbstractWarming across the western United States continues to reduce snowpack, lengthen growing seasons, and increase atmospheric demand, leading to uncertainty about moisture availability in montane forests. As many upland forests have thin soils and extensive rooting into weathered bedrock, deep vadose‐zone water may be a critical late‐season water source for vegetation and mitigate forest water stress. A key impediment to understanding the role of the deep vadose zone as a reservoir is quantifying the plant‐available water held there. We quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of rock moisture held in the deep vadose zone in a montane catchment of the Rocky Mountains. Direct measurements of rock moisture were accompanied by monitoring of precipitation, transpiration, soil moisture, leaf‐water potentials, and groundwater. Using repeat nuclear magnetic resonance and neutron‐probe measurements, we found depletion of rock moisture among all our monitored plots. The magnitude of growing season depletion in rock moisture mirrored above‐ground vegetation density and transpiration, and depleted rock moisture was from ∼0.3 to 5 m below ground surface. Estimates of storage indicated weathered rock stored at least 4%–12% of mean annual precipitation. Persistent transpiration and discrepancies between estimated soil matric potentials and leaf‐water potentials suggest rock moisture may mitigate drought stress. These findings provide some of the first measurements of rock moisture use in the Rocky Mountains and indicated rock moisture use is not just confined to periods of drought or Mediterranean climates.

Daytime stomatal regulation in mature temperate trees prioritizes stem rehydration at night.

Trees remain sufficiently hydrated during drought by closing stomata and reducing canopy conductance (Gc ) in response to variations in atmospheric water demand and soil water availability. Thresholds that control the reduction of Gc are proposed to optimize hydraulic safety against carbon assimilation efficiency. However, the link between Gc and the ability of stem tissues to rehydrate at night remains unclear. We investigated whether species-specific Gc responses aim to prevent branch embolisms, or enable night-time stem rehydration, which is critical for turgor-dependent growth. For this, we used a unique combination of concurrent dendrometer, sap flow and leaf water potential measurements and collected branch-vulnerability curves of six common European tree species. Species-specific Gc reduction was weakly related to the water potentials at which 50% of branch xylem conductivity is lost (P50 ). Instead, we found a stronger relationship with stem rehydration. Species with a stronger Gc control were less effective at refilling stem-water storage as the soil dries, which appeared related to their xylem architecture. Our findings highlight the importance of stem rehydration for water-use regulation in mature trees, which likely relates to the maintenance of adequate stem turgor. We thus conclude that stem rehydration must complement the widely accepted safety-efficiency stomatal control paradigm.

Mediterranean service trees respond less to drought than oaks

Some widely distributed timber species, such as oaks, are vulnerable to low soil water availability and drought. Therefore, selecting broadleaved minor species with lower sensitivity to drought could be an alternative in seasonally dry areas. However, the growth performance of these minor hardwood species is unknown, particularly under warm and dry conditions at the southern limit of their distribution range. We assessed the radial growth response to drought by correlating tree-ring and climate data in coexisting service trees (Sorbus domestica) and two oak species (Quercus faginea, Quercus pyrenaica). Trees were sampled in three Mediterranean sites located in Spain with different precipitation patterns. We used the Vaganov–Shashkin (VS) growth model to infer the main climate constraints of growth. To ascertain whether climate is changing tree phenology, we also simulated changes in xylem onset and cessation timings and compared them with leaf falling dates in service trees. Service trees showed a trend towards advancing leaf fall, but this was not related to xylem growth. Oaks responded more to a drought index than service trees. The strongest responses corresponded to droughts peaking from spring to summer, but oaks tended to respond to longer droughts (9–13 months) than service trees (2–7 months). These different responses are due to the positive responses of all species to high precipitation in the growing season, but the sensitivity of oak growth to warm summer conditions and increased atmospheric water demand. The VS model indicated a more bimodal growth pattern in services trees than in oaks, which could allow the former to recover better after a dry summer. Service trees could be more widely used as a source of valuable timber wood under Mediterranean continental conditions.

Hydric Behavior: Insights into Primary Metabolites in Leaves and Roots of Cabernet Sauvignon and Grenache Grapevine Varieties under Drought Stress

The classification of grapevine cultivars into isohydric and anisohydric categories depends on their ability to close stomata under conditions of low soil water availability or high atmospheric demand. This study aimed to compare the responses of Grenache, classified as isohydric, and Cabernet Sauvignon, classified as anisohydric, both grafted onto Richter 110 rootstock, and subjected to severe drought stress. Three cycles of drought stress were applied, followed by watering, while a well-watered treatment served as the control. Stomatal conductance and stem water potential were measured at predawn and midday during the drought cycles, and primary metabolites were analyzed in leaves and roots using gas chromatography. We found that Grenache had significantly higher stomatal conductance than Cabernet Sauvignon under both well-watered and water-stressed conditions. There were no significant differences in stem water potential between the two varieties, but the control treatment maintained a higher stem water potential at predawn and midday for both varieties. Primary metabolite analysis showed that both varieties accumulated sugars and polyols in their leaves and roots under drought stress, while organic acids were more abundant in leaves than in roots. Overall, the results suggest that the hydric behavior of grapevines depends on the intensity and duration of drought stress. In this study, both varieties exhibited near-isohydric behavior by regulating stomatal closure under drought stress. The metabolites identified in this study may serve as potential biomarkers of water drought stress in Grenache and Cabernet Sauvignon grapevines under the conditions of this experiment.

Dew benefits on alpine grasslands are cancelled out by combined heatwave and drought stress.

Increasing frequencies of heatwaves combined with simultaneous drought stress in Europe threaten the ecosystem water and carbon budgets of alpine grasslands. Dew as an additional water source can promote ecosystem carbon assimilation. It is known that grassland ecosystems keep high evapotranspiration as long as soil water is available. However, it is rarely being investigated whether dew can mitigate the impact of such extreme climatic events on grassland ecosystem carbon and water exchange. Here we use stable isotopes in meteoric waters and leaf sugars, eddy covariance fluxes for H2O vapor and CO2, in combination with meteorological and plant physiological measurements, to investigate the combined effect of dew and heat-drought stress on plant water status and net ecosystem production (NEP) in an alpine grassland (2000m elevation) during the June 2019 European heatwave. Before the heatwave, enhanced NEP in the early morning hours can be attributed to leaf wetting by dew. However, dew benefits on NEP were cancelled out by the heatwave, due to the minor contribution of dew in leaf water. Heat-induced reduction in NEP was intensified by the combined effect of drought stress. The recovery of NEP after the peak of the heatwave could be linked to the refilling of plant tissues during nighttime. Among-genera differences of plant water status affected by dew and heat-drought stress can be attributed to differences in their foliar dew water uptake, and their reliance on soil moisture or the impact of the atmospheric evaporative demand. Our results indicate that dew influence on alpine grassland ecosystems varies according to the environmental stress and plant physiology.

Deriving a high-quality daily dataset of large-pan evaporation over China using a hybrid model

Global warming is expected to increase the atmospheric evaporative demand and make more surface water for evapotranspiration, aggerating water sources' social and ecological shortage. Pan evaporation, as a routine observation worldwide, is an excellent metric to indicate the response of terrestrial evaporation to global warming. However, several non-climatic effects, such as instrument upgrades, have destroyed the homogenization of pan evaporation and limited its applications. In China, 2400s meteorological stations have observed daily pan evaporation since 1951. The observed records became discontinuous and inconsistent due to the instrument upgrade from micro-pan D20 to large-pan E601. Here, combining the Penpan model (PM) and random forest model (RFM), we developed a hybrid model to assimilate different types of pan evaporation into a consistent dataset. Based on the cross-validation test, on a daily scale, the hybrid model has a lower bias (RMSE=0.41 mm day−1) and better stability (NSE=0.94) than the two sub-models and the conversion coefficient method. Finally, we produced a homogenized daily dataset of E601 across China from 1961 to 2018. Based on this dataset, we analyzed the long-term trend of pan evaporation. Pan evaporation showed a -1.23±0.57 mm a−2 downward trend from 1961-1993, primarily caused by decreased pan evaporation in warm seasons over North China. After 1993, the pan evaporation in South China increased significantly, resulting in a 1.83±0.87 mm a−2 upward trend across China. With better homogeneity and higher temporal resolution, the new dataset is expected to promote drought monitoring, hydrological modeling, and water resources management. Free access to the dataset can be found at https://figshare.com/s/0cdbd6b1dbf1e22d757e.

Soil Moisture and Atmospheric Aridity Impact Spatio‐Temporal Changes in Evapotranspiration at a Global Scale

AbstractEvapotranspiration (ET) constitutes the water exchange from land to the atmosphere, which in turn modulates precipitation and soil moisture (SM). Multiple lines of evidence document complex feedbacks between changes in ET and temperature, atmospheric CO2 and vegetation greening. However, the existing analyses on global changes in ET do not account for the direct effects of SM supply and atmospheric water demand, expressed by vapor pressure deficit (VPD), while considering multiple environmental variables. Here we evaluated the performance of ET products using 140 flux towers included in the FLUXNET database. All ET products show reasonable performance, with an overall correlation higher than 0.7 and better performance at a higher latitude. From analysis of the ensemble mean of annual ET, we show insignificant (P = 0.06) trends in global ET during 1982–2020 and a significantly (P &lt; 0.01) increasing trend during 2002–2020. Changes in GLEAM ET generally exert a positive response to changes in SM and a negative response to changes in VPD. Yet, these effects are not globally consistent and are largely determined by changes in vegetation transpiration. Using our finding as a benchmark, Earth System Models mostly reproduce the positive response of ET to SM with less coupling strength, while showing negative effects of VPD on ET with stronger coupling strength. Our study highlights that concurrent soil drying and atmospheric aridity could intensify water exchanges and the importance of realistically representing SM‐VPD‐ET interactions in models for accurate predictions of the hydrological cycle.

Partitioning and sourcing of evapotranspiration using coupled MARMITES-MODFLOW model, La Mata catchment (Spain)

The new, two-way coupled, distributed and transient MARMITES-MODFLOW (MM-MF) model, coupling land surface and soil zone domains with groundwater, is presented. It implements model-based partitioning and sourcing of subsurface evapotranspiration (ETss) as part of spatio-temporal water balance (WB). The partitioning of ETss involves its separation into evaporation (E) and transpiration (T), while the sourcing of E and T involves separation of each of the two into soil zone (Esoil and Tsoil) and groundwater (Eg and Tg) components. The objective of that development was to understand the system dynamics of a catchment with shallow water table, through spatio-temporal quantification of water fluxes and evaluation of their importance in water balances, focusing on the Eg and Tg components of ETss. While the Eg is computed using formulation from published study, the Tg is obtained through a novel phenomenological function, based on soil moisture availability and transpiration demand driven by climatic conditions. The MM-MF model was applied in the small La Mata catchment (~4.8 km2, Salamanca Province, Spain), characterized by semi-arid climate, granitic bedrock, shallow water table and sparse oak woodland. The main catchment characteristics were obtained using remote sensing, non-invasive hydrogeophysics and classical field data acquisition. The MM-MF model was calibrated in transient, using daily data of five hydrological years, between 1st October 2008 and 30th September 2013. The WB confirmed dependence of groundwater exfiltration on gross recharge. These two water fluxes, together with infiltration and Esoil, constituted the largest subsurface water fluxes. The Eg was higher than the Tg, which is explained by low tree coverage (~7%). Considering seasonal variability, Eg and Tg were larger in dry seasons than in wet season, when solar radiation was the largest and soil moisture the most depleted. A relevant observation with respect to tree transpiration was that during dry seasons, the decline of Tsoil, associated with the decline of soil moisture, was compensated by increase of Tg, despite continuously declining water table. However, in dry seasons, T was far below the atmospheric evaporative demand, indicating that the groundwater uptake by the tree species of this study constituted a survival strategy and not a mechanism for continued plant growth. The presented MM-MF model allowed to analyze catchment water dynamics and water balance in detail, accounting separately for impacts of evaporation and transpiration processes on groundwater resources. With its unique capability of partitioning and sourcing of ETss, the MM-MF model is particularly suitable for mapping groundwater dependent ecosystems, but also for analyzing impacts of climate and land cover changes on groundwater resources.