Atmosphere Mixed Layer Ocean Research Articles

The vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere

The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth’s climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO2 forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m−2 K−1 (0.60 W m−2 K−1) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m−2 K−1 and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m−2 K−1; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m−2 K−1, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight the fundamental importance of the global water cycle to Earth’s climate sensitivity.

Do Planetary Wave Dynamics Contribute to Equable Climates?

Abstract Viable explanations for equable climates of the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic (from about 145 to 50 million years ago), especially for the above-freezing temperatures detected for high-latitude continental winters, have been a long-standing challenge. In this study, the authors suggest that enhanced and localized tropical convection, associated with a strengthened paleo–warm pool, may contribute toward high-latitude warming through the excitation of poleward-propagating Rossby waves. This warming takes place through the poleward heat flux and an overturning circulation that accompany the Rossby waves. This mechanism is tested with an atmosphere–mixed layer ocean general circulation model (GCM) by imposing idealized localized heating and compensating cooling, a heating structure that mimics the effect of warm-pool convective heating. The localized tropical heating is indeed found to contribute to a warming of the Arctic during the winter. Within the range of 0–150 W m−2 for the heating intensity, the average rate for the zonal mean Arctic surface warming is 0.8°C per (10 W m−2) increase in the heating for the runs with an atmospheric CO2 level of 4 × PAL (Preindustrial Atmospheric Level, 1 PAL = 280 ppmv), the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic values considered for this study. This rate of warming for the Arctic is lower in model runs with 1 × PAL CO2, which show an increase of 0.3°C per (10 W m−2). Further increase of the heating intensity beyond 150 W m−2 produces little change in the Arctic surface air temperature. This saturation behavior is interpreted as being a result of nonlinear wave–wave interaction, which leads to equatorward wave refraction. Under the 4 × PAL CO2 level, raising the heating from 120 W m−2 (estimated warm-pool convective heating value for the present-day climate) to 150 and 180 W m −2 (estimated values for the Cretaceous and early Cenozoic) produces a warming of 4°–8°C over northern Siberia and the adjacent Arctic Ocean. Relative to the warming caused by a quadrupling of CO2 alone, this temperature increase accounts for about 30% of the warming over this region. The possible influence of warm-pool convective heating on the present-day Arctic is also discussed.

Coupled atmosphere–mixed layer ocean response to ocean heat flux convergence along the Kuroshio Current Extension

The winter response of the coupled atmosphere–ocean mixed layer system to anomalous geostrophic ocean heat flux convergence in the Kuroshio Extension is investigated by means of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an entraining ocean mixed layer model in the extra-tropics. The direct response consists of positive SST anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension and a baroclinic (low-level trough and upper-level ridge) circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. The low-level component of this atmospheric circulation response is weaker in the case without coupling to an extratropical ocean mixed layer, especially in late winter. The inclusion of an interactive mixed layer in the tropics modifies the direct coupled atmospheric response due to a northward displacement of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone which drives an equivalent barotropic anomalous ridge over the North Pacific. Although the tropically driven component of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation response is comparable to the direct response in terms of sea level pressure amplitude, it is less important in terms of wind stress curl amplitude due to the mitigating effect of the relatively broad spatial scale of the tropically forced atmospheric teleconnection.

Time Variation of Effective Climate Sensitivity in GCMs

Abstract Effective climate sensitivity is often assumed to be constant (if uncertain), but some previous studies of general circulation model (GCM) simulations have found it varying as the simulation progresses. This complicates the fitting of simple models to such simulations, as well as having implications for the estimation of climate sensitivity from observations. This study examines the evolution of the feedbacks determining the climate sensitivity in GCMs submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Apparent centennial-time-scale variations of effective climate sensitivity during stabilization to a forcing can be considered an artifact of using conventional forcings, which only allow for instantaneous effects and stratospheric adjustment. If the forcing is adjusted for processes occurring on time scales that are short compared to the climate stabilization time scale, then there is little centennial-time-scale evolution of effective climate sensitivity in any of the GCMs. Here it is suggested that much of the apparent variation in effective climate sensitivity identified in previous studies is actually due to the comparatively fast forcing adjustment. Persistent differences are found in the strength of the feedbacks between the coupled atmosphere–ocean (AO) versions and their atmosphere–mixed layer ocean (AML) counterparts (the latter are often assumed to give the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the AOGCM). The AML model can typically only estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the parallel AO version to within about 0.5 K. The adjustment to the forcing to account for comparatively fast processes varies in magnitude and sign between GCMs, as well as differing between AO and AML versions of the same model. There is evidence from one AOGCM that the forcing adjustment may take a couple of decades, with implications for observationally based estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. It is suggested that at least some of the spread in twenty-first-century global temperature predictions between GCMs is due to differing adjustment processes, hence work to understand these differences should be a priority.

Equilibrium Response of an Atmosphere–Mixed Layer Ocean Model to Different Radiative Forcing Agents: Global and Zonal Mean Response

Abstract The equilibrium response to various forcing agents, including CO2, solar irradiance, tropospheric ozone, black carbon, organic carbon, sulfate, and volcanic aerosols, is investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. The experiments are carried out by altering each forcing agent separately. Realistic spatial patterns of forcing constituents are applied but the magnitude of the forcing is adjusted so that each forcing constituent yields approximately the same strength of radiative forcing. It is demonstrated that the global mean temperature response depends on the types of forcing agents and the efficacy with respect to CO2 forcing ranges from 58% to 100%. The smallest efficacy is seen in one of the black carbon experiments and is associated with negative cloud feedback. The sign of the cloud feedback is shown to be sensitive to the vertical distribution of black carbon. The feedback analysis suggests that the small efficacy in tropospheric ozone is due to a large negative lapse rate feedback. Global mean precipitation increases when the earth warms except for the case of black carbon in which precipitation decreases. In all experiments, the global mean convective mass flux decreases when the earth’s surface warms. When the applied radiative forcing resulting from a particular forcing agent is stronger in one hemisphere, anomalous heat exchange between the hemispheres results in conjunction with changes in the Hadley circulation. The magnitude of interhemispheric heat transport is little sensitive to the details of the forcing, but is determined primarily by the interhemispheric contrast in forcing. The change in the Hadley circulation strongly impacts the precipitation changes in low latitudes.

GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part IV: Idealized Climate Response

Abstract The climate response to idealized changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by the new GFDL climate model (CM2) is documented. This new model is very different from earlier GFDL models in its parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes, numerical algorithms, and resolution. The model was constructed to be useful for both seasonal-to-interannual predictions and climate change research. Unlike previous versions of the global coupled GFDL climate models, CM2 does not use flux adjustments to maintain a stable control climate. Results from two model versions, Climate Model versions 2.0 (CM2.0) and 2.1 (CM2.1), are presented. Two atmosphere–mixed layer ocean or slab models, Slab Model versions 2.0 (SM2.0) and 2.1 (SM2.1), are constructed corresponding to CM2.0 and CM2.1. Using the SM2 models to estimate the climate sensitivity, it is found that the equilibrium globally averaged surface air temperature increases 2.9 (SM2.0) and 3.4 K (SM2.1) for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. When forced by a 1% per year CO2 increase, the surface air temperature difference around the time of CO2 doubling [transient climate response (TCR)] is about 1.6 K for both coupled model versions (CM2.0 and CM2.1). The simulated warming is near the median of the responses documented for the climate models used in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Third Assessment Report (TAR). The thermohaline circulation (THC) weakened in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. By the time of CO2 doubling, the weakening in CM2.1 is larger than that found in CM2.0: 7 and 4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), respectively. However, the THC in the control integration of CM2.1 is stronger than in CM2.0, so that the percentage change in the THC between the two versions is more similar. The average THC change for the models presented in the TAR is about 3 or 4 Sv; however, the range across the model results is very large, varying from a slight increase (+2 Sv) to a large decrease (−10 Sv).

Evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change in an intercomparison of climate models

Most of the uncertainty in the climate sensitivity of contemporary general circulation models (GCMs) is believed to be connected with differences in the simulated radiative feedback from clouds. Traditional methods of evaluating clouds in GCMs compare time–mean geographical cloud fields or aspects of present-day cloud variability, with observational data. In both cases a hypothetical assumption is made that the quantity evaluated is relevant for the mean climate change response. Nine GCMs (atmosphere models coupled to mixed-layer ocean models) from the CFMIP and CMIP model comparison projects are used in this study to demonstrate a common relationship between the mean cloud response to climate change and present-day variability. Although atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean models are used here, the results are found to be equally applicable to transient coupled model simulations. When changes in cloud radiative forcing (CRF) are composited by changes in vertical velocity and saturated lower tropospheric stability, a component of the local mean climate change response can be related to present-day variability in all of the GCMs. This suggests that the relationship is not model specific and might be relevant in the real world. In this case, evaluation within the proposed compositing framework is a direct evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change. None of the models studied are found to be clearly superior or deficient when evaluated, but a couple appear to perform well on several relevant metrics. Whilst some broad similarities can be identified between the 60°N–60°S mean change in CRF to increased CO2 and that predicted from present-day variability, the two cannot be quantitatively constrained based on changes in vertical velocity and stability alone. Hence other processes also contribute to the global mean cloud response to climate change.

A coupled climate model simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum, Part 1: transient multi-decadal response

A coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–land surface climate system model developed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is used to investigate the response to glacial ice-sheet topography and decreased CO2 representative of the last glacial maximum (LGM, roughly 21,000 years before present). Imposing these glacial boundary conditions leads to a strong and rapid climate adjustment, first in the atmosphere, and then in the ocean. We describe the model and boundary conditions and analyze the initial transient response. In a subsequent paper we analyze the near-equilibrium response. During the transient phase, surface air temperature rapidly decreases with time. The rapid cooling over the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets introduces a strong inter-hemispheric asymmetry. Sea surface temperature also decreases and after 80 years of integration, ocean surface temperature has decreased by 3 °C and global surface air temperature by 5 °C. The expected overall cooling is contrasted by marked regions of unexpected localized ocean surface warming and the retreat of sea ice in the northern North Atlantic and in the high latitude Southern Ocean. This strong transient behavior, associated with more vigorous oceanic convection at these high latitudes, represents the localization of the initial response in areas remote from the direct forcing change. The strength of the North Atlantic (Southern Ocean) overturning stream function, associated with the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (Antarctic Bottom Water), increases from 12 to 36 Sv (2 to 26 Sv). There is a marked increase in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport as well (from 80 to 140 Sv), even though the wind stress decreases over the Southern Ocean, presumably as a consequence of the enhanced bottom pressure torque due to an increase in the density and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Both precipitation and evaporation decrease on average with time and the change in the hydrological cycle modifies sea surface salinity (SSS). SSS increases in the Arctic Ocean due to a decrease in river runoff while it decreases in the North Atlantic due to an increase in river runoff and an increase in precipitation minus evaporation. The initial (and near equilibrium) climate response to LGM forcing in the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model is quite different from that in the associated atmosphere-mixed layer ocean model due to very strong oceanic feedbacks. This is especially evident where oceanic convection is active. The anomalously warm surface temperature, especially in the Southern Ocean, and the marked increase in the overturning circulation are transient features of the response to imposed LGM boundary conditions which moderate or reverse as the system approaches equilibrium (as described in the companion paper). Other differences with the mixed layer simulation include a considerably colder tropical Pacific and the development of a La Nina-like response both of which are absent in the mixed layer simulations.

The impact of dynamic sea-ice on the climatology and climate sensitivity of a GCM: a study of past, present, and future climates

We assess two parametrisations of sea-ice in a coupled atmosphere–mixed layer ocean–sea-ice model. One parametrisation represents the thermodynamic properties of sea-ice formation alone (THERM), while the other also includes advection of the ice (DYN). The inclusion of some sea-ice dynamics improves the model's simulation of the present day sea-ice cover when compared to observations. Two climate change scenarios are used to investigate the effect of these different parametrisations on the model's climate sensitivity. The scenarios are the equilibrium response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 and the response to imposed glacial boundary conditions. DYN produces a smaller temperature response to a doubling of CO2 than THERM. The temperature response of THERM is more similar to DYN in the glacial case than in the 2×CO2 case which implies that the climate sensitivity of THERM and DYN varies with the nature of the forcing. The different responses can largely be explained by the different distribution of Southern Hemisphere sea-ice cover in the control simulations, with the inclusion of ice dynamics playing an important part in producing the differences. This emphasises the importance of realistically simulating the reference climatic state when attempting to simulate a climate change to a prescribed forcing. The simulated glacial sea-ice cover is consistent with the limited palaeodata in both THERM and DYN, but DYN simulates a more realistic present day sea-ice cover. We conclude that the inclusion of simple ice dynamics in our model increases our confidence in the simulation of the anomaly climate.

Transient Climate Change in the Hadley Centre Models: The Role of Physical Processes

Abstract A comparison of the response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations of two versions of the Met Office's (Hadley Centre) coupled atmosphere–ocean model reveals differences that result in large local variations in the modeled impact of climate change. With the aim of understanding the important processes and feedbacks associated with climate change, and ultimately reducing uncertainty in predictions, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed using a coupled atmosphere–mixed layer ocean model. The primary differences in the atmospheric response of the coupled models studied are found to be due to changes made to the physical representation of the atmosphere rather than to the ocean. In particular, many of the different patterns of response can be explained through changes made to the boundary layer scheme combining in a nonlinear way with changes to the cloud scheme to alter the tropical temperature and precipitation response in the model. A new land surface exchange scheme largely acc...

Tropical Cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum: An Atmosphere–Mixed Layer Ocean Model Simulation

The sensitivity of tropical temperature to glacial forcing is examined by using an atmosphere–mixed layer ocean (A–MLO) model to simulate the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) following specifications established by the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. Changes in continental ice, orbital parameters, atmospheric CO2, and sea level constitute a global mean radiative forcing of −4.20 W m−2, with the vast majority of this forcing coming, in nearly equal portions, from the changes in continental ice and CO2. In response to this forcing, the global mean surface air temperature decreases by 4.0 K, with the largest cooling in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. In the Tropics, a more modest cooling of 2.0 K (averaged from 30°N to 30°S) is simulated, but with considerable spatial variability resulting from the interhemispheric asymmetry in radiative forcing, contrast between oceanic and continental response, advective effects, and changes in soil moisture. Analysis of the tropical energy balance reveals that the decrease in top-of-atmosphere longwave emission associated with the tropical cooling is balanced primarily by the combination of increased reflection of shortwave radiation by clouds and increased atmospheric heat transport to the extratropics. Comparisons with a variety of paleodata indicate that the overall tropical cooling is comparable to paleoceanographic reconstructions based on alkenones and species abundances of planktonic microorganisms, but smaller than the cooling inferred from noble gases in aquifers, pollen, snow line depression, and the isotopic composition of corals. The differences in the magnitude of tropical cooling reconstructed from the different proxies preclude a definitive evaluation of the realism of the tropical sensitivity of the model. Nonetheless, the comparisons with paleodata suggest that it is unlikely that the A–MLO model exaggerates the actual climate sensitivity. The similarity between the sensitivity coefficients (i.e., the ratio of the change in global mean surface air temperature to the change in global mean radiative forcing) for the LGM simulation and a simulation of CO2 doubling suggests that similar climate feedbacks are involved in the responses to these two perturbations. More comprehensive simulation of the tropical temperature sensitivity to glacial forcing will require the use of coupled models, for which a number of technical obstacles remain.

SST Variability and Its Mechanism in a Coupled Atmosphere–Mixed Layer Ocean Model

Interannual SST variability in a coupled atmosphere–mixed layer ocean model is investigated. This model has no El Niño but shows a large interannual SST variability in the tropical Pacific. The basin-scale feature of SST variation has some common characteristics shared with that obtained by a global ocean–atmosphere coupled GCM and observational data in the subtropical to the midlatitude Pacific. Both the latent heat flux and shortwave radiation have their roles in producing the SST anomalies. There is no large contrast in the total heat flux between the eastern and the western Pacific. However, their main components, the shortwave radiation and the latent heat flux, have a remarkable contrast between the cold tongue in the east and the warm pool region in the west. In the east, the ocean is warmed by shortwave radiation and cooled by latent heat. This shortwave radiation is negatively correlated with low-level clouds. When the SST is warmer than normal in the eastern Pacific, there is less low-level stratus cloud cover and more shortwave radiation reaching the surface. In the western Pacific, the ocean is warmed by less evaporation due to weaker winds. When the ocean becomes warm, it is cooled by less shortwave radiation due to stronger activity in cumulus convection.

The Response of the Coupled Arctic Sea Ice–Atmosphere System to Orbital Forcing and Ice Motion at 6 kyr and 115 kyr BP

Abstract A coupled atmosphere–mixed layer ocean GCM (GENESIS2) is forced with altered orbital boundary conditions for paleoclimates warmer than modern (6 kyr BP) and colder than modern (115 kyr BP) in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere. A pair of experiments is run for each paleoclimate, one with sea-ice dynamics and one without, to determine the climatic effect of ice motion and to estimate the climatic changes at these times. At 6 kyr BP the central Arctic ice pack thins by about 0.5 m and the atmosphere warms by 0.7 K in the experiment with dynamic ice. At 115 kyr BP the central Arctic sea ice in the dynamical version thickens by 2–3 m, accompanied by a 2 K cooling. The magnitude of these mean-annual simulated changes is smaller than that implied by paleoenvironmental evidence, suggesting that changes in other earth system components are needed to produce realistic simulations. Contrary to previous simulations without atmospheric feedbacks, the sign of the dynamic sea-ice feedback is complicated and...

Comparing simulated glacial climate and paleodata: A reexamination

Glacial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) simulated by an atmosphere‐mixed layer ocean model are compared with those reconstructed by the Climate: Long‐Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project using planktonic microfossils. Two methods of comparison are employed. The first is global and uses the subjectively analyzed (i.e., hand contoured, then digitized) data set published by CLIMAP. The second is restricted to only those discrete locations where the CLIMAP sediment cores were taken. Both methods indicate that many aspects of the reconstructed glacial SST changes are simulated reasonably well by the model, although there are areas of disagreement. The extent of the disagreement appears smaller when the SSTs are sampled at discrete locations, because the largest discrepancies occur in the subtropical Pacific where data are sparse. When examined separately for each ocean, the magnitude of the disagreement in low latitudes roughly corresponds to the magnitude of the uncertainties in SST estimation using planktonic microfossils, being largest in the Pacific and smallest in the Atlantic. Because the largest discrepancies occur where uncertainties in estimation are large, no clear determination of whether the climate model exaggerates or underestimates low‐latitude climate sensitivity appears possible. Nonetheless, sampling at discrete locations may be the best procedure for evaluating climate model performance, because errors associated with extending analyses to data‐void areas can be avoided and uncertainties associated with inadequate spatial sampling made more evident.

Sensitivity of the Arctic Climate to Leads in a Coupled Atmosphere-Mixed Layer Ocean Model

Abstract The thermodynamic sea ice code in a coupled atmosphere-mixed layer ocean GCM has been altered to allow the presence of open water within an ice pack (leads) and a prescribed turbulent oceanic heat flux at the ice bottom. Two experiments with the GCM are then performed: one with leads included and one without. A comparison between the two model runs is presented, in addition to a comparison between observations and the simulation with leads. Selected sea ice and atmospheric variables in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere are analyzed to assess the sensitivity of these climatic components to the presence of leads and to identify feedback mechanisms that are introduced by leads. The inclusion of leads causes Northern Hemispheric sea ice concentration to decrease in every season, with year-round statistically significant reductions at the highest latitude band (81°N). Using the improved sea ice code, the model's simulation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic is consistent with observati...

The influence of continental ice, atmospheric CO2, and land albedo on the climate of the last glacial maximum

The contributions of expanded continental ice, reduced atm9spheric CO2, and changes in land albedo to the maintenance of the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) are examined. A series of experiments is perform- ed using an atmosphere-mixed layer ocean model in which these changes in boundary conditions are incorporated either singly or in combination. The model used has been shown to produce a reasonably reaJistic simulation of the reduced temperature of the LGM (Manabe and Broccoli 1985~). By comparing the results from pairs of ex- periments, the effects of each of these envirornnental changes can be determined. Expanded continental ice and reduced atmospheric CO2 are found to have a substantial impact on global mean temperature. The ice sheet effect is confined almost ex- clusively to the Northern Hemisphere, while lowered CO2 cools both hemispheres. Changes in land albedo over ice- free areas have only a minor thermal effect on a global basis. The reduction of CO2 content in the atmosphere is the primary contributor to the cooling of the Southern Hemisphere. The model sensitivity to both the ice sheet and CO2 effects is characterized by a high latitude amplification and a late autumn and early winter maximum.