Atlantic Water Circulation Research Articles

Shifts of the Recirculation Pathways in Central Fram Strait Drive Atlantic Intermediate Water Variability on Northeast Greenland Shelf

AbstractIncreased oceanic heat transport plays a key role in the accelerated mass loss of Greenland's marine‐terminating glaciers. The melt rate of major glaciers in Northeast Greenland (NEG) is controlled by ocean variability, in particular warm Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW), on the continental shelf. A high‐resolution configuration of the ocean sea‐ice model FESOM2.1 is assessed at local and regional scales, and used to investigate the drivers of AIW temperature variability on the NEG continental shelf. The seasonal to decadal variability of AIW is characterized, featuring both pronounced interannual fluctuations and a long‐term warming trend. A major source of AIW is Atlantic Water (AW) originating from the West Spitsbergen Current that recirculates in Fram Strait. AW anomalies are advected westwards and partly control the AIW temperatures on the continental shelf. Increased AIW temperatures are also connected to pronounced northern and central branches of recirculating AW in Fram Strait, and enhanced AW temperatures more regionally. The strengthening of the pathways brings more warmer AIW onto the northern part of the NEG continental shelf. There, it circulates anti‐cyclonically and results in shelf‐wide warming. Regional atmospheric forcing is connected to the changes in the AW circulation. The strengthening of the northern AW branches is likely caused by anticyclonic wind anomalies over the Barents Sea that drive an enhanced northward AW transport in Fram Strait. Thus, controlled by a combination of both upstream and regionally forced circulation conditions, the changes in local AIW temperatures may also affect the oceanic heat transport reaching the Central Arctic Ocean.

Estimation of Atlantic Water transit times in East Greenland fjords using a 233U-236U tracer approach

Water mass composition and transit times of outflowing waters from the Arctic Ocean can reflect changes of polar climate and ocean circulation upstream. In this study we apply a novel approach using anthropogenic uranium tracers (233U and 236U), combined with salinity, and nutrients (nitrate and phosphate) to estimate transit times of waters from the Atlantic passing through the Arctic and into East Greenland fjords. In Polar Surface Water (PSW, typically found in surface ~150 m of the fjords) the dominant source of 236U is European reprocessing plants (63%) while in Arctic Atlantic Water (AAW, typically directly below PSW in these fjords) it is much less (26%) and the 236U signal is dominated by the global fallout contribution. Here we isolate the 236U signal from reprocessing plants using 236U/233U ratios and use the temporal development in 236U discharges to estimate transit times for Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean and exiting as either PSW or AAW on the Greenland Shelf. PSW, which flows into the fjords from the shelf, has a transit time of between 6 and 14 years from the Arctic entrance (Barents Sea Opening, 74°N, 19°E). The transit time of AAW, which is entrained into upwelling subglacial discharge in the inner parts of the fjords, is in the order of 24–25 years since entrance in the Barents Sea. The findings indicate the potential of this novel 233U-236U approach to trace Atlantic Water circulation in the Arctic Ocean. The method offers independent transit time estimates to compare with circulation models and indicates the potential time lag between documented recent change in properties of water leaving the Arctic Ocean and the upstream processes contributing to these changes.

Atlantic Water Circulation and Properties Northwest of Svalbard During Anomalous Southerly Winds

AbstractAtlantic Water (AW), the main source of heat and salt for the Arctic Ocean, undergoes large transformations (cooling and freshening) north of Svalbard as it flows near the surface above the Yermak Plateau (YP). In September 2017, a SeaExplorer ocean glider deployed in the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) and recovered north of Svalbard documented the circulation and properties of the AW crossing the YP. The glider sampled the different branches of the AW flowing into the Arctic around the YP: the WSC, the Svalbard Branch (SB), the Yermak Pass Branch, and the Yermak Branch. Unusual southerly winds prevailed in summer 2017 impacting AW circulation in the region. Cold and fresh lenses of shelf‐origin waters detached from the slope in the WSC to reach their density level below the core of the AW. This resulted in cooling and freshening of the AW inflow from below. The eastward current associated with the SB was found to be weak at its usual location above the 400 m isobath, likely the result of the adjustment of the flow influenced by anomalous southerly wind conditions.

An analysis of Atlantic water in the Arctic Ocean using the Arctic subpolar gyre state estimate and observations

The Atlantic Water (AW) Layer in the Arctic Subpolar gyre sTate Estimate Release 1 (ASTE R1), a data-constrained, regional, medium-resolution coupled ocean-sea ice model, is analyzed for the period 2004–2017 in combination with available hydrographic data. The study, focusing on AW defined as the waters between two bounding isopycnals, examines the time-average, mean seasonal cycle and interannual variability of AW Layer properties and circulation. A surge of AW, marked by rapid increases in mean AW Layer potential temperature and AW Layer thickness, begins two years into the state estimate and traverses the Arctic Ocean along boundary current pathways at a speed of 1–2 cm/s. The surge also alters AW circulation, including a reversal in flow direction along the Lomonosov Ridge, resulting in a new quasi-steady AW circulation from 2010 through the end of the state estimate period. The time-mean AW circulation during this latter time period indicates that a significant amount of AW spreads over the Lomonosov Ridge rather than directly returning along the ridge to Fram Strait. A three-layer depiction of the time-averaged ASTE R1 overturning circulation within the Arctic Ocean reveals that more AW is converted to colder, fresher Surface Layer water than is transformed to Deep and Bottom Water (1.2 Sv vs. 0.4 Sv). ASTE R1 also exhibits an increase in the volume of AW over the study period at a rate of 1.4 Sv, with near compensating decrease in Deep and Bottom Water volume. Observed AW properties compared to ASTE R1 output reveal increasing misfit during the simulated period with the ASTE R1 AW Layer generally being warmer and thicker than in observations.

Changes in Atlantic Water Circulation Patterns and Volume Transports North of Svalbard Over the Last 12 Years (2008–2020)

AbstractAtlantic Water (AW) enters the Arctic through Fram Strait as the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). When reaching the south of Yermak Plateau, the WSC splits into the Svalbard, Yermak Pass, and Yermak Branches. Downstream of Yermak Plateau, AW pathways remain unclear and uncertainties persist on how AW branches eventually merge and contribute to the boundary current along the continental slope. We took advantage of the good performance of the 1/12° Mercator Ocean model in the Western Nansen Basin (WNB) to examine the AW circulation and volume transports in the area. The model showed that the circulation changed in 2008–2020. The Yermak Branch (YB) strengthened over the northern Yermak Plateau, feeding the Return YB along the eastern flank of the Plateau. West of Yermak Plateau, the Transpolar Drift likely shifted westward while AW recirculations progressed further north. Downstream of the Yermak Plateau, an offshore current developed above the 3,800 m isobath, fed by waters from the Yermak Plateau tip. East of 18°E, enhanced mesoscale activity from the boundary current injected additional AW basin‐ward, further contributing to the offshore circulation. A recurrent anticyclonic circulation developed in the Sofia Deep, which also occasionally fed the western part of the offshore flow. The intensification of the circulation coincided with an overall warming in the upper WNB (0–1,000 m), consistent with the progression of AW. This regional description of the changing circulation provides a background for the interpretation of upcoming observations.

Arctic Ocean Response to Greenland Sea Wind Anomalies in a Suite of Model Simulations

AbstractMultimodel Arctic Ocean “climate response function” experiments are analyzed in order to explore the effects of anomalous wind forcing over the Greenland Sea (GS) on poleward ocean heat transport, Atlantic Water (AW) pathways, and the extent of Arctic sea ice. Particular emphasis is placed on the sensitivity of the AW circulation to anomalously strong or weak GS winds in relation to natural variability, the latter manifested as part of the North Atlantic Oscillation. We find that anomalously strong (weak) GS wind forcing, comparable in strength to a strong positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation index, results in an intensification (weakening) of the poleward AW flow, extending from south of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, through the Nordic Seas, and all the way into the Canadian Basin. Reconstructions made utilizing the calculated climate response functions explain ∼50% of the simulated AW flow variance; this is the proportion of variability that can be explained by GS wind forcing. In the Barents and Kara Seas, there is a clear relationship between the wind‐driven anomalous AW inflow and the sea ice extent. Most of the anomalous AW heat is lost to the atmosphere, and loss of sea ice in the Barents Sea results in even more heat loss to the atmosphere, and thus effective ocean cooling. Release of passive tracers in a subset of the suite of models reveals differences in circulation patterns and shows that the flow of AW in the Arctic Ocean is highly dependent on the wind stress in the Nordic Seas.

Eddy‐Resolving Simulation of the Atlantic Water Circulation in the Fram Strait With Focus on the Seasonal Cycle

AbstractEddy driven recirculation of Atlantic Water (AW) in the Fram Strait modifies the amount of heat that reaches the Arctic Ocean, but is difficult to constrain in ocean models due to very small Rossby radius there. In this study, we explore the effect of resolved eddies on the AW circulation in a locally eddy‐resolving simulation of the global Finite‐Element‐Sea ice‐Ocean Model (FESOM) integrated for the years 2000–2009, by focusing on the seasonal cycle. An eddy‐permitting simulation serves as a control run. Our results suggest that resolving local eddy dynamics is critical to realistically simulate ocean dynamics in the Fram Strait. Strong eddy activity simulated by the eddy‐resolving model, with peak in winter and lower values in summer, is comparable in magnitude and seasonal cycle to observations from a long‐term mooring array, whereas the eddy‐permitting simulation underestimates the observed magnitude. Furthermore, a strong cold bias in the central Fram Strait present in the eddy‐permitting simulation is reduced due to resolved eddy dynamics, and AW transport into the Arctic Ocean is increased with possible implications for the Arctic Ocean heat budget. Given the good agreement between the eddy‐resolving model and measurements, it can help filling gaps that point‐wise observations inevitably leave. For example, the path of the West Spitsbergen Current offshore branch, measured in the winter months by the mooring array, is shown to continue cyclonically around the Molloy Deep in the model, representing the major AW recirculation branch in this season.

Relevance of dissolved organic nutrients for the Arctic Ocean nutrient budget

AbstractWe ask whether dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and phosphorus (DOP) could account for previously identified Arctic Ocean (AO) inorganic nutrient budget imbalances. We assess transports to/from the AO by calculating indicative budgets. Marked DON:DOP ratio differences between the Amerasian and Eurasian AO reflect different physical and biogeochemical pathways. DON and DOP are exported to the North Atlantic via Davis Strait potentially being enhanced in transit from Bering Strait. Fram Strait transports are balanced. Barents Sea Opening transports may provide an additional nutrient source to the Barents Sea or may be locked within the wider AO Atlantic Water circulation. Gaps in our knowledge are identified and discussed.

A Simple Shelf Circulation Model: Intrusion of Atlantic Water on the West Spitsbergen Shelf

AbstractBarotropic flow along depth contours is found in accordance with standard geostrophic theory. A numerical model is developed that studies the deviation from such a flow. The model gives a good approximation of the dynamical processes on the West Spitsbergen Shelf (WSS) and shows that the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC), the main gateway of Atlantic water (AW) toward the Arctic, connects more easily to the Isfjorden Trough than anywhere else along the shelf. The circulation of AW in the troughs along the WSS is here named the Spitsbergen Trough Current (STC). From hydrographical and ocean current observations it is evident that the STC is primarily barotropic and driven by the sea surface height. A connection between the along-coast wind stress and the STC is established, and it is demonstrated how the increased occurrence of winter cyclones in Fram Strait during January–February accelerates and widens the WSC. Ultimately, this results in a strengthened STC and dominance of AW on the WSS. The STC represents a slower route of AW toward the Arctic Ocean and a large heat transport toward the West Spitsbergen fjords during winter (0.2–0.4 TW toward Isfjorden). Heat flux estimates show that half of the AW heat loss in the Isfjorden Trough is due to heat loss to the surrounding water masses, while the rest is lost to the atmosphere. Sea ice production along West Spitsbergen has been reduced, or even nonexistent, in some fjords since 2006. Here, the authors argue that this is a consequence of the strong southerly wind periods along the WSS during winter.

Is there any imprint of the wind variability on the Atlantic Water circulation within the Arctic Basin?

AbstractThe Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Basin is isolated from the atmosphere by the overlaying surface layer, yet observations have revealed that the velocities in this layer exhibit significant variations. Here analysis of a global ocean/sea ice model hindcast, complemented by experiments performed with an idealized process model, is used to investigate what controls the variability of AW circulation, with a focus on the role of wind forcing. The AW circulation carries the imprint of wind variations, both remotely over the Nordic and Barents Seas where they force the AW inflow variability, and locally over the Arctic Basin through the forcing of the wind‐driven Beaufort Gyre, which modulates and transfers the wind variability to the AW layer. The strong interplay between the circulation within the surface and AW layers suggests that both layers must be considered to understand variability in either.

Structure and variability of the boundary current in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Circumpolar Boundary Current (ACBC) transports a vast amount of mass and heat around cyclonic gyres of the deep basins, acting as a narrow, topographically-controlled flow, confined to the continental margins. Current observations during 2002–2011 at seven moorings along the major Atlantic Water (AW) pathway, complemented by an extensive collection of measured temperatures and salinities as well as results of state-of-the-art numerical modeling, have been used to examine the spatial structure and temporal variability of the ACBC within the Eurasian Basin (EB). These observations and modeling results suggest a gradual, six-fold decrease of boundary current speed (from 24 to 4cm/s) on the route between Fram Strait and the Lomonosov Ridge, accompanied by a transformation of the vertical flow structure from mainly barotropic in Fram Strait to baroclinic between the area north of Spitsbergen and the central Laptev Sea continental slope. The relative role of density-driven currents in maintaining AW circulation increases with the progression of the ACBC eastward from Fram Strait, so that baroclinic ACBC forcing dominates over the barotropic in the eastern EB. Mooring records have revealed that waters within the AW and the cold halocline layers circulate in roughly the same direction in the eastern EB. The seasonal signal, meanwhile, is the most powerful mode of variability in the EB, contributing up to ~70% of the total variability in currents (resolved by moorings records) within the eastern EB. Seasonal signal amplitudes for current speed and AW temperature both decrease with the eastward progression of AW flow from source regions, and demonstrate strong interannual modulation. In the 2000s, the state of the EB (e.g., circulation pattern, thermohaline conditions, and freshwater balance) experienced remarkable changes. Results showing anomalous circulation patterns for an extended period of 30 months in 2008–2010 for the eastern EB, and a two-core AW temperature structure that emerged in this region of the Arctic Ocean in the most recent decade, suggest a shift of the EB toward a new, more dynamic state. This also likely suggests that the EB interior will become more susceptible to future climate change. Evaluating properties of the ACBC, its temporal variability at time scales from a season to several years, and possible governing mechanisms, this study contributes to a better understanding of Arctic Ocean circulation.

Is weaker Arctic sea ice changing the Atlantic water circulation?

AbstractWith a numerical model, we test the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean circulation at middepth (212–1200 m) to the change in the sea ice rheology parameter P* that controls the sea ice compressive strength. We show that the reduction of the sea ice strength via P* within commonly used envelope reduces the sea ice extent and consequently enhances the ocean surface heat loss in the marginal ice zone. This leads to cooling of the Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic Ocean. As a result Eurasian Basin and Amerasian Basin temperatures are in average cooled by 0.1°C and 0.05°C, respectively. An increased sea ice drift speed in the central Arctic leads to an enhanced circulation of the anticyclonic Beaufort Gyre of the Amerasian Basin, which in turn weakens the cyclonic Atlantic water circulation below and enhances the recirculation of the Atlantic water in the Eurasian Basin. Consequently the balance of the volume fluxes through the Arctic gateways changes. Fram Strait net outflow increases by 0.46 Sv, Barents Sea Opening net inflow increases by 0.19 Sv and Davis Strait net outflow decreases by 0.28 Sv. This may spread the effects of the sea ice strength change beyond the limits of the Arctic Ocean and into the deep water convection zones in the North Atlantic. These substantial effects should be considered also in the model optimization efforts where P* is commonly used as one of the tuning parameters to achieve better sea ice simulations, whereas the effects on the ocean circulation are rarely taken into account.

Meteorologically-driven circulation and flushing times of the Bay of Algeciras, Strait of Gibraltar

A primitive-equation model has been used to investigate the meteorologically-driven circulation of the Bay of Algeciras. It is shown that the mean circulation of Atlantic Water (AW) is characterized by an anticyclonic cell, while Mediterranean Water (MW) follows a preferred cyclonic pathway. Meteorological forcing distorts substantially the AW mean circulation pattern, and only modulates that of the MW. Winds drive a vertical circulation cell in the Atlantic layer consistent with Ekman dynamics, whereas the horizontal circulation pattern is markedly dependent on the swift Atlantic jet entering the Mediterranean and changes from clearly anticyclonic to cyclonic as the jet separates or approaches the strait’s northern shoreline. This occurs through atmospheric pressure-driven acceleration/deceleration of the jet, in agreement with internal hydraulics theory predictions. It is also found that the renewal of AW is largely modulated by tides, with meteorological forcing playing a secondary role. The opposite applies to the renewal of MW.

On the Circulation of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean

Abstract An idealized eddy-resolving numerical model and an analytic three-layer model are used to develop ideas about what controls the circulation of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean. The numerical model is forced with a surface heat flux, uniform winds, and a source of low-salinity water near the surface around the perimeter of an Arctic basin. Despite this idealized configuration, the model is able to reproduce many general aspects of the Arctic Ocean circulation and hydrography, including exchange through Fram Strait, circulation of Atlantic Water, a halocline, ice cover and transport, surface heat flux, and a Beaufort Gyre. The analytic model depends on a nondimensional number, and provides theoretical estimates of the halocline depth, stratification, freshwater content, and baroclinic shear in the boundary current. An empirical relationship between freshwater content and sea surface height allows for a prediction of the transport of Atlantic Water in the cyclonic boundary current. Parameters typical of the Arctic Ocean produce a cyclonic boundary current of Atlantic Water of O(1 − 2 Sv; where 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) and a halocline depth of O(200 m), in reasonable agreement with observations. The theory compares well with a series of numerical model calculations in which mixing and environmental parameters are varied, thus lending credibility to the dynamics of the analytic model. In these models, lateral eddy fluxes from the boundary and vertical diffusion in the interior are important drivers of the halocline and the circulation of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean.

Recent changes in Arctic Ocean circulation revealed by iodine‐129 observations and modeling

Anthropogenic radionuclides released into European coastal waters from nuclear fuel reprocessing plants at Sellafield (UK) and La Hague (France) flow northward through the Nordic Seas and label Atlantic Water (AW) entering the Arctic Ocean. Transport of the soluble radionuclide 129I through the Arctic Ocean has been simulated using a numerical model for the period from 1970 to 2010. The simulated tracer distributions closely conform to 129I measurements made across the Arctic Ocean during the mid‐1990s and 2000s and clearly illustrate the dramatic changes in oceanic circulation which occurred during this time. The largest changes in surface circulation were associated with the transition from a negative to a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in the early 1990s and the subsequent return to a weak positive phase in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Model and experimental results indicate that a new circulation regime evolved after 2004 when a period of intense, anti‐cyclonic surface stress led to a strengthening of the Beaufort Gyre. We submit that this resulted in a suppression of the cyclonic boundary current of mid‐depth Atlantic Water (AW) below the Beaufort Gyre, with upper AW in the Canada Basin showing signs of a reversal from cyclonic to anti‐cyclonic flow. These results are consistent with the development of a new AW circulation scheme involving a separation between flow at intermediate depths in the Eurasian and Canada Basins which could eventually result in modification of the Arctic intermediate water which feeds the overflows.

On improving the simulation of Atlantic Water circulation in the Arctic Ocean

We performed a set of numerical experiments in order to better simulate the circulation of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean by employing a coupled ice‐ocean Arctic regional model. We found that the inflow of Atlantic Water via Fram Strait is weak in the case of high viscosity and diffusivity coefficients (1 · 108 cm2/s and 1 · 107 cm2/s) and creates an anticyclonic circulation in the Eurasian basin. This flow increases significantly when both coefficients are scaled down (to 1 · 107 cm2/s and 0.5 · 106 cm2/s) but the current path is then unstable, and it becomes mostly anticyclonic after about a decade of integration. A further reduction of these coefficients leads to growing instabilities due to insufficient grid resolution. Short‐term integration of the model with doubled space resolution shows better agreement with observations, but long‐term calculation is still restricted by simulation time. Alternatively, a lower resolution version of this model benefits from parameterizations of subscale processes. Incorporation of the Neptune parameterization of eddy‐topography interaction into the model intensifies the current steered by subsurface topography and results in cyclonic circulation of the Atlantic Water in every subbasin and in the whole Arctic region. In the absence of salinity restoring there was strong salinity drift at the surface, resulting in a salinity increase in the central Arctic by 3 units from 1960 to 2005. The Arctic freshwater content is driven basically by year‐to‐year variations of convective mixing involving more saline water from lower layers. After cooling and increasing in salinity through brine rejection, the surface water becomes denser, leading to even stronger convective mixing. One‐dimensional model tests showed how model performance could be improved by implementing a lower vertical diffusion coefficient and higher vertical resolution.

On the dynamics of Atlantic Water circulation in the Arctic Ocean

We use a subset of models from the coordinated experiment of the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) to analyze differences in intensity and sense of rotation of Atlantic Water circulation. We focus on the interpretation of the potential vorticity (PV) balance. Results differ drastically for the Eurasian and the Amerasian Basins of the Arctic Ocean. We find indications that in the Eurasian Basin the lateral net flux of PV is a significant factor for the determination of the sense of rotation of Atlantic Water circulation on timescales beyond pentades. The main source of high PV causing cyclonic circulation in the Eurasian Basin is the Barents Sea, where the seasonal cycle of surface buoyancy fluxes forms stratified water that leaves the shelf and feeds the Atlantic Water Layer (AWL) in the Arctic Basins. However, in the Amerasian Basin vertical PV fluxes are the more important factor. These are closely related to wind field changes. We find an intense response of the AWL flow to wind forcing, approximated by the sea level pressure difference between the Bering Sea and the central Canadian Basin, which describes about half the variance of AWL flow of the Amerasian Basin. An experiment driven with a repeated atmospheric climatology exhibits an extreme case where a permanent high pressure system over the Beaufort Sea dominates the circulation in the Amerasian Basin, demonstrating the potential of the Beaufort Gyre to adjust in such a way as to suppress a cyclonic AWL flow in the Amerasian Basin. In more realistic cases the Beaufort Gyre still modulates the Amerasian Basin AWL circulation significantly.

Atlantic water circulation over the Mendeleev Ridge and Chukchi Borderland from thermohaline intrusions and water mass properties

Hydrographic and tracer data from 2002 illustrate Atlantic water pathways and variability in the Mendeleev Ridge and Chukchi Borderland (CBLMR) region of the Arctic Ocean. Thermohaline double diffusive intrusions (zigzags) dominate both the Fram Strait (FSBW) and Barents Sea Branch Waters (BSBW) in the region. We show that details of the zigzags' temperature‐salinity structure partially describe the water masses forming the intrusions. Furthermore, as confirmed by chemical tracers, the zigzags' peaks contain the least altered water, allowing assessment of the temporal history of the Atlantic waters. Whilst the FSBW shows the 1990s warming and then a slight cooling, the BSBW has continuously cooled and freshened over a similar time period. The newest boundary current waters are found west of the Mendeleev Ridge in 2002. Additionally, we show the zigzag structures can fingerprint various water masses, including the boundary current. Using this, tracer data and the advection of the 1990s warming, we conclude the strongly topographically steered boundary current, order 50 km wide and found between the 1500 m and 2500 m isobaths, crosses the Mendeleev Ridge north of 80°N, loops south around the Chukchi Abyssal Plain and north around the Chukchi Rise, with the 1990s warming having reached the northern (but not the southern) Northwind Ridge by 2002. Pacific waters influence the Atlantic layers near the shelf and over the Chukchi Rise. The Northwind Abyssal Plain is comparatively stagnant, being ventilated only slowly from the north. There is no evidence of significant boundary current flow through the Chukchi Gap.

Hydrological changes in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to changes in the freshwater budget: A numerical modelling study

The response of the Mediterranean Sea and the various sub-basins to changes in the freshwater budget are investigated in a process-oriented study, using the POM model. The model is first integrated using values of the Nile and Ebro rivers runoff, as well as of the Dardanelles freshwater input, typical of the fifties. The model reaches a steady state representative of that existing in the Mediterranean prior to the major damming period after 90 years of integration. Then the model is integrated using the reduced river runoff values typical of the after-damming period. The additional impact of decadal scale trends in the precipitation rate as well as of intense surface cooling periods/events on the thermohaline circulation during the last 40 years were also examined. The model results show that the dramatic reduction of the Nile freshwater input and to a lesser extent the reduction of the freshwater input from the Dardanelles Straits induced a large increase in the sea surface salinity in the Aegean and Levantine basins in the late sixties/early seventies, in agreement with observations. Furthermore, the Ebro runoff reduction during the same period further enhanced the salinity increase in the Levantine basin as higher salinity surface waters of the western basin reached the eastern basin via the Atlantic Water circulation. This saltier surface layer in the vicinity of the Rhodes Gyre favoured the preconditioning for the formation of the Levantine Intermediate Water, resulting in about 40% increase of its formation rate. This in turn resulted in the production of saltier and larger amounts of deep waters in the various deep-water formation sites. According to the model, the river damming and decreased precipitation since the eighties explain about 95% of the observed salinity increase in the Western Mediterranean Deep Water over the last 40 years. The major contributor to this increase was proved to be the Nile damming. The salt increase in the surface layer is proved to be insufficient to produce alone the two climatic transient events in the deep waters of the Eastern Mediterranean in the late sixties and early nineties, respectively. Surface cooling was found to be important, resulting in large deep water formation and thus allowing the propagation of the increased surface salinity signal to the deep layers. However, model results demonstrate that the river damming played an important role in the long-term salt preconditioning of the surface/intermediate layers, thus contributing in triggering the two events.

Temperature difference across the Lomonosov Ridge: Implications for the Atlantic Water circulation in the Arctic Ocean

Drifting buoy observations in the Arctic Ocean indicate that, unlike climatological conditions, the temperature of the upper Atlantic water was higher in the Makarov Basin side of the Lomonosov Ridge than in the Amundsen Basin side in 2004. Hydrographic data from 1991 to 2004 has been compared with climatology to examine the relative phase of Atlantic water temperature change in these regions. On the Amundsen Basin side of the Lomonosov Ridge, a positive temperature anomaly in the Atlantic water began in the early 1990s, continued from the mid‐1990s to the early 2000s and started decreasing in 2004. In contrast, positive temperature anomalies were first apparent on the Makarov Basin side of the Lomonosov Ridge in 2000, and continue in 2004. Recent historical data indicates that the arrival of temperature anomalies on the Makarov Basin side of the Lomonosov Ridge is delayed about 7 years after arrival on the Amundsen Basin side. Our results support the idea that Atlantic Water circulates cyclonically around the periphery of the Makarov basin at a propagation speed of 1–2 cm s−1.