Atlantic Overturning Research Articles

Observations of the inter‐ocean exchange around South Africa

There is growing evidence that the interocean exchange south of Africa is an important link in the global overturning circulation of the ocean, the so‐called ocean conveyer belt. At this location, warm and salty Indian Ocean waters enter the South Atlantic and are pulled by currents that eventually reach the North Atlantic, where water cools and sinks.A major contributor to the exchange is the frequent shedding of ring eddies from the termination of the Agulhas Current south of the tip of Africa.This shedding is controlled by developments far upstream in the Indian Ocean, and variations in this ‘Agulhas Leakage’ can lead to changes in the rate and stability of the Atlantic overturning, with possible associated global climate variations [Weijer et al., 1999]. Regional climate variations in the tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean are known to affect the whole system of the Agulhas Current, including the interocean exchanges. This article reports on some of the seminal results of ongoing multinational, multidisciplinary projects that explore these issues.

Northern ice discharges and Antarctic warming: could ocean eddies provide the link?

A mechanism is advanced for explaining the Antarctic warm events from 90 to 30ka BP which involves meltwater-induced changes in the salinity gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and consequent changes in the poleward heat transport by ocean eddies. Based on simple linear scale analysis, the mechanism is shown to yield warming in the Antarctic interior of roughly the magnitude seen in Antarctic ice-core records (∼2 °C) in response to ice discharges into the North Atlantic. Consistent with observations, the mechanism produces gradual Antarctic warming and cooling, as dictated by the time required for salinity anomalies to build up and dissipate across the ACC. The mechanism also allows the onset of warming or cooling to be tied to changes in Atlantic overturning, which is relevant here, not for influencing ocean heat transport directly, but for influencing the routing of meltwater from the North Atlantic into the Southern Ocean. The ideas presented here highlight the possibility that eddy processes in the ocean may play a first-order role in aspects of climate variability on millennial time scales.

Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model

The effect of changes in zonal and meridional atmospheric moisture transports on Atlantic overturning is investigated. Zonal transports are considered in terms of net moisture export from the Atlantic sector. Meridional transports are related to the vigour of the global hydrological cycle. The equilibrium thermohaline circulation (THC) simulated with an efficient climate model is strongly dependent on two key parameters that control these transports: an anomaly in the specified Atlantic–Pacific moisture flux (ΔF a ) and atmospheric moisture diffusivity (K q ). In a large ensemble of spinup experiments, the values of ΔF a and K q are varied by small increments across wide ranges, to identify sharp transitions of equilibrium THC strength in a 2-parameter space (between Conveyor “On” and “Off” states). Final states from this ensemble of simulations are then used as the initial states for further such ensembles. Large differences in THC strength between ensembles, for identical combinations of ΔF a and K q , reveal the co-existence of two stable THC states (Conveyor “On” and “Off”)—i.e. a bistable regime. In further sensitivity experiments, the model is forced with small, temporary freshwater perturbations to the mid-latitude North Atlantic, to establish the minimum perturbation necessary for irreversible THC collapse in this bistable regime. A threshold is identified in terms of the forcing duration required. The model THC, in a “Conveyor On” state, irreversibly collapses to a “Conveyor Off” state under additional freshwater forcing of just 0.1 Sv applied for around 100 years. The irreversible collapse is primarily due to a positive feedback associated with suppressed convection and reduced surface heat loss in the sinking region. Increased atmosphere-to-ocean freshwater flux, under a collapsed Conveyor, plays a secondary role.

Recent changes in the North Atlantic.

It has long been recognized that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is potentially sensitive to greenhouse-gas and other climate forcing, and that changes in the MOC have the potential to cause abrupt climate change. However, the mechanisms remain poorly understood and our ability to detect these changes remains incomplete. Four main (interrelated) types of ocean change in particular are associated in the literature with greenhouse-gas forcing. These are: a slowing of MOC overturning rate; changes in northern seas which might effect a change in Atlantic overturning, including changes in the freshwater flux from the Arctic, and changes in the transport and/or hydrographic character of the northern overflows which ventilate the deep Atlantic; a change in the trans-ocean gradients of steric height (both zonal and meridional) which might accompany a change in the MOC; and an intensification of the global water cycle. Though as yet we have no direct measure of the freshwater flux passing from the Arctic to the Atlantic either via the Canadian Arctic Archipelago or along the East Greenland Shelf, and no direct measure yet of the Atlantic overturning rate, we examine a wide range of time-series from the existing hydrographic record for oceanic evidence of the other anticipated responses. Large amplitude and sustained changes are found (or indicated by proxy) over the past three to four decades in the southward transport of fresh waters along the Labrador shelf and slope, in the hydrography of the deep dense overflows from Nordic seas, in the transport of the eastern overflow through Faroe Bank Channel, and in the global hydrologic cycle. Though the type and scale of changes in ocean salinity are consistent with an amplification of the water cycle, we find no convincing evidence of any significant, concerted slowdown in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Forcing of the deep ocean circulation in simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

From the interpretation of different proxy data it is widely believed that the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation during the maximum of the last ice age ∼21,000 years ago was considerably weaker than today. Recent equilibrium simulations with a coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐sea ice model successfully simulated a reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation consistent with reconstructions. Here we examine the influence of different air‐sea fluxes on simulated changes in the deep ocean circulation between the Last Glacial Maximum and present day. We find that changes in the oceanic surface freshwater fluxes are the dominant forcing mechanism for the reduced Atlantic overturning. Diminished export of freshwater out of the Atlantic drainage basin through the atmosphere decreases surface salinities in the North Atlantic, leading to less NADW formation in the colder climate. Changes in heat fluxes, which lead to increased sea surface densities in the North Atlantic and therefore to an enhanced overturning, are of secondary importance. Wind stress variations seem to play a negligible role. The degree to which the Atlantic freshwater export and hence the NADW formation are reduced depends on the formulation of the atmospheric hydrological cycle and on the strength of the overturning in the present‐day simulation. Simulated changes in sea surface properties for a large variety of overturning strengths are compared with different reconstruction data sets. The results depend strongly on the data set used. Sea surface temperature reconstructions from Climate: Long‐Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) and earlier salinity reconstructions based on planktonic foraminifera are most consistent with a significant reduction of the circulation, while recent reconstructions using dinocyst assemblages allow no unequivocal conclusion.

Identifying a Damped Oscillatory Thermohaline Mode in a General Circulation Model Using an Adjoint Model

A damped oscillatory mode of the thermohaline circulation (THC), which may play a role in interdecadal climate variability, is identified in a global primitive equation model. This analysis is done under mixed boundary conditions using an adjoint of the primitive equation model. The linearized versus nonlinear stability behavior of the model is studied by comparing the adjoint analysis to runs of the fully nonlinear model. It is shown that a steady-state solution obtained under larger amplitude freshwater surface forcing (and hence with a weaker North Atlantic overturning) is unstable, while a steadystate solution with stronger THC is stable. In a certain intermediate parameter regime it is found that the full nonlinear model state may be unstable, while the linearized analysis indicates that the model state is stable. It is proposed that this may be because either the instability mechanism at this intermediate regime is nonlinear or, while the model is linearly stable at this regime, it allows for temporary growth of small perturbations due to the non-normal nature of the problem. A clear signal of variations is not found in the amplitude of the horizontal gyre circulation, possibly indicating that the gyre effect that was found in THC oscillations in some previous studies may not be essential for the existence of the THC oscillation. The long timescale of the oscillation in the present model also seems to indicate that the gyre effect may not be a main active participant in the thermohaline oscillation mechanism.

Stability of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation: Competition between Bering Strait Freshwater Flux and Agulhas Heat and Salt Sources

Abstract The role played by interocean fluxes of buoyancy in stabilizing the present-day overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean is examined. A 2D model of the Atlantic overturning circulation is used, in which the interocean fluxes of heat and salt (via the Bering Strait, Drake Passage, and Agulhas Leakage) are represented by sources and sinks. The profiles and amplitudes of these sources are based mainly on the heat and salt fluxes in a high-resolution ocean model (OCCAM). When applying realistic sources and sinks, a circulation is favored that is characterized by major downwelling in the Northern Hemisphere (northern sinking pole to pole circulation, NPP), and resembles the present-day Atlantic overturning circulation. The Southern Ocean sources appear to stabilize this circulation, whereas Bering Strait freshwater input tends to destabilize it. Already a small buoyancy input at southerly latitudes is enough to prohibit the existence of a southern sinking circulation (SPP), leaving the NPP circul...

Variability on the century time scale and regime changes in a stochastically forced zonally averaged ocean‐atmosphere model

The response of a zonally averaged climate model of the atmosphere‐ocean system to a stochastic freshwater forcing depends on its strength. Three regimes are found: For small perturbations of the system, the ocean responds with irregular oscillations around a state which is characterized by a strong Atlantic overturning circulation. For intermediate to large amplitude forcing the thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic ocean exhibits pronounced regular overturning (flushing) events. The third regime is a complete collapse of the Atlantic overturning. Transitions can be induced between the three regimes. While for moderate values the transitions are reversible, for large forcing amplitudes the Atlantic overturning circulation collapses irreversibly to the third regime.

Global Thermohaline Circulation. Part I: Sensitivity to AtmosphericMoisture Transport

A global ocean general circulation model of idealized geometry, combined with an atmospheric model based on observed transports of heat, momentum, and moisture, is used to explore the sensitivity of the global conveyor belt circulation to the surface freshwater fluxes, in particular the effects of meridional atmospheric moisture transports. The numerical results indicate that the equilibrium strength of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation increases as the global freshwater transports increase. However, the global deep water formation—that is, the sum of the NADW and the Southern Ocean Deep Water formation rates—is relatively insensitive to changes of the freshwater flux. Perturbations to the meridional moisture transports of each hemisphere identify equatorially asymmetric effects of the freshwater fluxes. The results are consistent with box model results that the equilibrium NADW formation is primarily controlled by the magnitude of the Southern Hemisphere freshwater flux. However, the results show that the Northern Hemisphere freshwater flux has a strong impact on the transient behavior of the North Atlantic overturning. Increasing this flux leads to a collapse of the conveyor belt circulation, but the collapse is delayed if the Southern Hemisphere flux also increases. The perturbation experiments also illustrate that the rapidity of collapse is affected by random fluctuations in the wind stress field.

Global Thermohaline Circulation. Part I: Sensitivity to AtmosphericMoisture Transport

Abstract A global ocean general circulation model of idealized geometry, combined with an atmospheric model based on observed transports of heat, momentum, and moisture, is used to explore the sensitivity of the global conveyor belt circulation to the surface freshwater fluxes, in particular the effects of meridional atmospheric moisture transports. The numerical results indicate that the equilibrium strength of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation increases as the global freshwater transports increase. However, the global deep water formation—that is, the sum of the NADW and the Southern Ocean Deep Water formation rates—is relatively insensitive to changes of the freshwater flux. Perturbations to the meridional moisture transports of each hemisphere identify equatorially asymmetric effects of the freshwater fluxes. The results are consistent with box model results that the equilibrium NADW formation is primarily controlled by the magnitude of the Southern Hemisphere freshwater flux. However, the results show that the Northern Hemisphere freshwater flux has a strong impact on the transient behavior of the North Atlantic overturning. Increasing this flux leads to a collapse of the conveyor belt circulation, but the collapse is delayed if the Southern Hemisphere flux also increases. The perturbation experiments also illustrate that the rapidity of collapse is affected by random fluctuations in the wind stress field.

The stability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

The stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation against meltwater input is investigated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The meltwater input to the Labrador Sea is increased linearly for 250 years to a maximum input of 0.625 Sv and then reduced again to 0 (both instantaneously and linearly decreasing over 250 years). The resulting freshening forces a shutdown of the formation of North Atlantic deepwater and a subsequent reversal of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic, filling the deep Atlantic with Antarctic bottom water. The change in the overturning pattern causes a drastic reduction of the Atlantic northward heat transport, resulting in a strong cooling with maximum amplitude over the northern North Atlantic and a southward shift of the sea-ice margin in the Atlantic. Due to the increased meridional temperature gradient, the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic is displaced southward and the westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere gain strength. We identify four main feedbacks affecting the stability of the thermohaline circulation: the change in the overturning circulation of the Atlantic leads to longer residence times of the surface water in high-northern latitudes, which allows them to accumulate more precipitation and runoff from the continents. As a consequence the stratification in the North Atlantic becomes more stable. This effect is further amplified by an enhanced northward atmospheric water vapour transport, which increases the freshwater input into the North Atlantic. The reduced northward oceanic heat transport leads to colder sea-surface temperatures and an intensification of the atmospheric cyclonic circulation over the Norwegian Sea. The associated Ekman transports cause increased upwelling and increased freshwater export with the East Greenland Current. Both the cooling and the wind-driven circulation changes largely compensate for the effects of the first two feedbacks. The wind-stress feedback destabilizes modes without deep water formation in the North Atlantic, but has been neglected in almost all studies so far. After the meltwater input stops, the North Atlantic deepwater formation resumed in all experiments and the meridional overturning returned within 200 years to a conveyor belt pattern. This happened although the formation of North Atlantic deep water was suppressed in one experiment for more than 300 years and the Atlantic overturning had settled into a circulation pattern with Antarctic bottom water as the only source of deep water. It is a clear indication that cooling and wind-stress feedback are more effective, at least in our model, than advection feedback and increased atmospheric water vapour transport. We conclude that the conveyor belt-type thermohaline circulation seems to be much more stable than hitherto assumed from experiments with simpler models.

Multiple Equilibria of an Asymmetric Two-Basin Ocean Model

An ocean general circulation model is used to examine the role of model geometry and surface buoyancy and wind stress forcing in the asymmetry of the global thermohaline circulation. The model domain is a highly idealized Atlantic and Pacific, linked by a circumpolar ocean in the south, and the integrations are performed under mixed boundary conditions diagnosed from spinups under various temperature and salinity profiles constructed from the present-day climatology. The model exhibits a tendency to favor either a “conveyor”-type circulation with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling in the North Pacific, or a “southern sinking” state with deep sinking in the Antarctic only. This bias is not dictated solely by the hydrological cycle, nor apparently by the greater northern extension of the Atlantic basin, but presumably by the overall asymmetry of the geometry. Equilibria with northern sinking in both basins can appear, however, when the winds in the Southern Ocean are reduced or the horizontal or vertical mixing in that region is tampered with. Three alternate two-basin geometries also have both “northern sinking” and “inverse conveyor” solutions. The common characteristic of all the North Pacific sinking states is the appearance of a very fresh halocline in the Southern Ocean that strongly reduces the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and reverses the sign of the normal pole-to-pole surface density contrast in the Pacific. A linear relationship is in fact found between the North Atlantic overturning and the meridional gradient of depth-integrated steric height, in good analogy with the simple box models of the thermohaline circulation where the overturning circulation is parameterized as linearly proportional to a meridional density difference. Model results suggest the existence of multiple conveyor-type equilibria with different strengths of the North Atlantic overturning. The southern overturning is in contrast quite stable except in states with very strong sinking in the Northern Hemisphere.