Atlantic Ocean Research Articles

Seismic stratigraphy of the Cretaceous post-rift sedimentary interval in the Punta del Este Basin (offshore Uruguay) and its implications for deep-water reservoirs

The formation of the Punta del Este Basin is associated with the fragmentation of West Gondwana and consequently the opening of the South Atlantic Ocean during the Early Cretaceous. The basin comprises the Cretaceous depocentre of the Uruguayan continental margin (UCM). This study provides a seismic stratigraphic analysis of the Cretaceous post-rift sedimentary interval in the basin by defining its seismic facies, depositional sequences, shelf-edge trajectories and palaeophysiographical settings. All depositional sequences of the Cretaceous post-rift sedimentary interval represent intense basinward progradation marked by two depositional trends. The Lower Cretaceous sedimentary interval exhibits a dominant flat-to-descending shelf-edge trajectory with a migration of up to 37 km. Deposition occurred over an irregular physiography with proximal NW–SE and distal WSW–ENE trends controlled by the characteristics of the volcanic margin. The basin geometry has strong implications for understanding the deposition of a deep-water turbidite system in the UCM, with a strong analogy to the recent discovery of the Venus well in the Orange Basin, offshore Namibia. Towards the Late Cretaceous, the NW–SE depositional trend was controlled by a NE–SW slope break, indicating deposition over the south and north highs. A low-angle ascending shelf-edge trajectory was observed, with a migration of up to 16 km.

Investigating the seasonal SST Predictability in the Northern Tropical Atlantic Ocean in an ensemble prediction system

The present study comprehensively investigates the practical and intrinsic predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Northern Tropical Atlantic (NTA) based on the 138-year-long coupled hindcasts with a recently developed seasonal ensemble prediction system. This system can yield skillful deterministic predictions for the prominent warm and cold events at least 6 months ahead. Notably, it excels in providing probabilistic predictions for below- and above-normal events rather than for neutral events. The predictability of SST in the NTA undergoes remarkable seasonal variation with two peaks of predictability targeted at April and October regardless of the lead time. Various sources of predictability for these target months are revealed. For the target month of April, the preceding remote forcing from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean combined with local signal results in the phase locking of the SST variation and seasonality of signal component over the NTA. This ultimately contributes to the high predictability targeted at April. However, From the perspective of potential predictability of the predictability targeted at October, which has been rarely mentioned in previous studies. It is also encouraging that, similar to the Indian Ocean Dipole, ENSO and the signal-to-noise ratio of the system mainly contribute to predictability beyond persistence at long lead times for the spring SST in the NTA. This indicates that potential future ENSO improvements may leave much room for improvement in the current SST prediction in the NTA.

The first deployments of pop‐up satellite archival tags on black sea bass (Centropristis striata)

AbstractBlack sea bass (Centropristis striata; BSB) are a commercially managed species with an increasing population in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. Understanding their movement ecology can be difficult due to their wide distribution and ability to inhabit both inshore and offshore reef habitats. BSB have been studied using a range of tagging techniques, and here we present the results of the first deployments of pop‐up satellite archival tags (PSAT) on this species. During 2019 and 2021, we conducted four fishing trips within the southern Mid‐Atlantic Bight region of the NW Atlantic and tagged a total of 30 fish with T‐bar tags and external data loggers, of which 4 received a PSAT and the rest received a Star‐Oddi conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) archival tag. All PSATs transmitted some data, with short attachment durations (8–32 days) relative to the programmed release of 250 days, and we did not recover a Star‐Oddi tag. External tag attachment techniques need to be examined and improved before continued deployment of larger data loggers on BSB.

Prolonged Cold Exposure Negatively Impacts Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) Liver Metabolism and Function.

Large-scale mortality events have occurred during the winter in Atlantic salmon sea cages in Eastern Canada and Iceland. Thus, in salmon held at 3 °C that were apparently healthy (i.e., asymptomatic) and that had 'early' and 'advanced' symptoms of 'winter syndrome'/'winter disease' (WS/WD), we measured hepatic lipid classes and fatty acid levels, and the transcript expression of 34 molecular markers of fatty liver disease (FLD; a clinical sign of WS/WD). In addition, we correlated our results with previously reported characteristics associated with this disease's progression in these same individuals. Total lipid and triacylglycerol (TAG) levels increased by ~50%, and the expression of 32 of the 34 genes was dysregulated, in fish with symptoms of FLD. TAG was positively correlated with markers of inflammation (5loxa, saa5), hepatosomatic index (HSI), and plasma aspartate aminotransferase levels, but negatively correlated with genes related to lipid metabolism (elovl5b, fabp3a, cd36c), oxidative stress (catc), and growth (igf1). Multivariate analyses clearly showed that the three groups of fish were different, and that saa5 was the largest contributor to differences. Our results provide a number of biomarkers for FLD in salmon, and very strong evidence that prolonged cold exposure can trigger FLD in this ecologically and economically important species.

Morpho- and Chemotyping of Holopelagic Sargassum Species Causing Massive Strandings in the Caribbean Region

The specific identification of three major morphotypes of the tropical holopelagic Sargassum species causing massive strandings on the African and Caribbean coastlines was attempted by morphological characterisation as well as quantitative and qualitative analyses of several metabolites. Of the 25 morphological variables studied on 208 samples from the North Atlantic Ocean, 22 were used to establish a dichotomous identification key, allowing without any doubt the identification of each morphotype based on their morphological criteria alone. We also attempted to differentiate morphotypes using chemical fingerprintings (HR-MAS NMR) and markers by analysing pigment level and composition using High Pressure Liquid Chromatography, terpene profiles by Thin Layer Chromatography, phenolic compound levels by the Folin-Ciocalteu assay and structures by 2D Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy, and fatty acid composition by Gas Chromatography. While pigment level and composition, terpene profiles, and phenolic contents were not discriminating, quantification of eight fatty acids enabled the differentiation of the three morphotypes. Furthermore, phlorotannin purification permitted their structural characterisation allowing discrimination between the three morphotypes. Our study highlights the potential of the free fatty acid profile and phlorotannin structure as good chemomarkers in order to discriminate between the three morphotypes of holopelagic Sargassum.

Habitat and movement selection processes of American lobster/jakej within a restricted bay in the Bras d’Or Lake/Pitu’paq, Nova Scotia, Canada

American lobster inhabit the unique, brackish Bras d’Or Lake system, although densities are low compared to areas with similar habitats in the Atlantic Ocean. Nevertheless, lobsters are an important part of local First Nation (Mi’kmaq) food and culture. We used acoustic telemetry and habitat mapping, combined with local Mi’kmaw knowledge, to document the movements and habitat use of adult lobsters within a section of the Lake. Movement patterns of acoustically tagged individual lobsters were analyzed with both resource selection functions and integrated step selection functions using data obtained from a high-resolution VEMCO Positioning System within a restricted bay in the Bras d’Or Lake. The resource selection function suggested stronger selections of substrates that contained a combination of soft and hard sediments. While the integrated step selection functions found substantial individual variability in habitat selections, there was a trend for lobsters to exhibit more resident behaviour on the combined soft/hard substrates despite the fact these sediments provided little in the way of obvious shelters for the animals. Adult lobsters at this site have very little risk of predation, which presumably allows them to freely exhibit exploratory behaviours and reduce their association with substrates that provide shelters.

Assessment of relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) changes and precipitation types in Nigeria from 2000 to 2022

This study investigated the circulation patterns associated with rainfall variations across Nigeria’s different climatic zones (2000–2022). Data was acquired from MERRA2, gridded ERSST5 provided by the NOAA, and observation data records obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to compare different precipitation types, while the Multinomial Logistic Regression Model was employed to examine the influence of SSTa on precipitation presenting regression coefficients with a significance level set at p < 0.05. Five distint standard precipitation index (SPI) classes: very dry, dry, normal, wet and very wet were categorised using prcipitation data. Analysis was done in R-studio and involved data preparation, model training, and evaluation, with emphasis on interpreting the coefficients to discern the impact of SST anomalies on precipitation for each specified level. The results show that TOP, AVP, LSP, and CNP varied: spatially, the northern region received low moisture budget from the Atlantic Ocean while the temporal distribution of precipitation across different climatic zones indicate high variability in precipitation across these zones. The mean SSTa in the WAf region were predominantly positive (0.5 and 1). The lowest (highest) global SST values were prevalent during the DJF (JJA) season(s) whereas, the monthly distribution of SSTa for the WAf region reveal neutral (2000–2016) and El Niño (2016–2022) episodes. The analysis of NIF values indicates a varied but generally stronger relationship between WAf SST anomalies and precipitation types compared to nino3.4 SST versus precipitation types. As a signal for prediction of seasonal and spatial distribution of precipitation across Nigeria’s different climatic zones, this outcome can support planning for food security, water and biodiversity conservation, and climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Seabird bycatch in European waters

AbstractThe incidental capture (bycatch) of seabirds is a global conservation issue and a top threat to European species that demands urgent conservation and management action. Here, we present the first European review of seabird bycatch data, considering all fishing gears and data collection methods available in the region. We calculate seabird bycatch numbers per species, family, country and European marine region and assess the reliability of the data available. The cumulative bycatch estimate extracted from this review suggests that about 195,000 seabirds (ranging from around 130,000 to 380,000) are bycaught in European waters annually. The most affected seabird species is the Common Guillemot Uria aalge with over 31,000 birds killed per year. The marine region with the highest bycatch estimate is the Northeast Atlantic (over 115,000 seabirds year−1). Gillnet fisheries are responsible for the highest bycatch levels, with over 95,000 seabirds year−1, followed by longline fisheries. The families most affected by bycatch are Anatidae and Alcidae. These numbers are likely an underestimation since we were unable to find bycatch estimates, or to extrapolate estimates from available bycatch data for 12 (out of 34) European coastal states. Our assessment also identified significant data gaps in key areas such as Gran Sol (in the north‐east Atlantic), the central and Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Combining systematic data collection with immediate implementation of mitigation measures will be crucial to fill in knowledge gaps, reduce current mortality levels and meet international conservation commitments such as those of the European Union and the Convention on Migratory Species.

Overlapping Areas Used for Artisanal Fishing and Populations of Franciscana Dolphin (Pontoporia blainvillei) in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean

This study identified the overlap between artisanal fishing areas and the Franciscana dolphin (Pontoporia blainvillei) in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean (SWAO), Brazil, to identify areas where the species was incidentally captured from the perception of artisanal fishers. Using a semistructured questionnaire, ethnographic interviews (n = 330) were carried out from 2012 to 2018 with fishers from ten communities in southeastern (ES and RJ) and southern (PR) Brazil. After the interviews, the fishers presented their fishing routes, locations and areas of incidental capture and occurrence of the Franciscana dolphin. Ninety-five fishers (29%) identified the species: 23 in northern ES, 1 in southern ES, 20 in northern RJ, and 51 in the PR. Among the 235 fishers who could not identify the species, approximately half worked in the distribution gaps. The areas of occurrence noted by the fishers coincided with those described in the “National Action Plan for the Conservation of the Toninha,” an official document from the Brazilian Government and scientific literature. The results indicate that the information provided by fishers is useful for understanding the distribution of the Franciscana dolphin and can be used in the development of management strategies to mitigate the incidental capture of the species.

Decadal heatwave fluctuations in China caused by the Indian and Atlantic Oceans

Heatwaves have been more common in China in recent years, largely attributed to human-caused global warming. While ocean variability, notably El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influences regional heatwave fluctuations in China, the impact of other oceanic variability remains unclear. Here we show that the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic Ocean (TSNAO) significantly modulate the decadal heatwave fluctuations in China. Among them, TIO has the most significant impact on northern China, while TSNAO has a greater impact on eastern China. TIO and TSNAO remotely influence heatwaves in China through abnormal sea surface temperatures (SSTs)-induced changes in atmospheric circulations involving westerlies and Rossby wave trains. Moreover, we demonstrated the physical processes responsible for heatwave fluctuations caused by TIO and TSNAO variability. The heatwave changes were determined jointly by vertical motion-related adiabatic and energy input-related diabatic temperature modifications. Our findings show that, in addition to ENSO, variability in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans is critical for understanding and predicting decadal heatwave changes in China.

On track to map seabird populations

Recent developments in tracking technology allow scientists to monitor seabird populations in greater depth than ever before. Researchers in the SEATRACK programme are working to map the non-breeding distribution of seabirds across the North Atlantic Ocean, with the aim of understanding their distribution at sea all year round, as Hallvard Strøm explains.

Palynology of the Albian–Turonian sediments from the Sumbe region, Kwanza Basin (Angola): Implications for paleoenvironment, paleoclimate, and paleogeography

Palynological investigations in the Sumbe region of the Kwanza Basin, Angola, have identified Albian to Turonian assemblages in four sections of the Quissonde Facies of the Mucanzo, Cabo Ledo, and Itombe formations. These studies aimed to determine their biostratigraphic ages and infer paleoenvironmental, paleoclimatic, and paleogeographic models. The presence of Odontochitina costata, Palaeohystrichophora infusorioides, and Xiphophoridium alatum cysts supports an upper Albian to lower Cenomanian age for the Mucanzo Formation. Litosphaeridium siphoniphorum cyst and the Elateroplicites africaensis pollen found In the Cabo Ledo Formation suggest a Cenomanian age, while Conosphaeridium striatoconum, Heterosphaeridium difficile, and Dinogymnium acuminatum supports a Turonian age for the lower part of the Itombe Formation. All samples predominantly contain fluorescent amorphous organic matter (AOM) derived from phytoplankton degradation, with increasing AOM in the uppermost units, indicating inner neritic marine deposition under dysoxic-anoxic conditions. During the Lower to mid-Cretaceous, the Gondwana breakup caused significant changes, with the palynological indicating a Tethyan affinity with some high-latitude taxa, suggesting a cosmopolitan distribution. The subtropical to tropical nature of the assemblages, along with high-latitude species, indicates a mid-Cretaceous water connection between the Central Atlantic and the South Atlantic oceans, extending to the Kwanza Basin.

La última búsqueda de E.O. Wilson: ¿hay hormigas en las Islas Malvinas?

The Falkland Islands constitute a remote archipelago in the South Atlantic Ocean that is about 450 km east of continental South America. The invertebrate fauna of the Falkland Islands is poorly known, and thus far no ants have been reported. We conducted surveys for ants on East Falkland Island during the austral summer 2019. No ants were found during our surveys, such that East Falkland Island is one of few oceanic islands that lack native and non-native ants.

The Tectonic Structure and Evolution of the Potiguar‐Ceará Rifted Margin of Brazil

AbstractThe Brazilian Equatorial Margin (BEM) is interpreted as a transform margin, where the last segment opened during Gondwana rifting. However, margin evolution, and break‐up age remain unconstrained. We interpret &gt;10k km of crustal‐scale seismic images extending along ∼600 km of the margin calibrated with drillholes. We determine the style and timing of tectonics across the rift system. We link changes in crustal‐scale structure and age of sediment deposits to interpret variations with the style of extension and intensity of thinning across the BEM. Observations support a rift evolution where deformation is initially distributed forming a shallow basin, subsequently focusses, and later migrates basin‐ward forming the deep‐water domain. We interpret that tectonic activity started ∼140–136 Ma and stopped earlier in the shallow basin causing minor thinning, than in the deep‐water domain with a ∼60 km wide area with 4–8 km thick crust extended in Late Aptian to Early Albian (116–110 Ma). Constraints from seismic and drilling help define an abrupt continent to ocean transition (COT) where continental crust may be abutted by oceanic crust, and breakup occurred at early Albian time. Basin sedimentation from the onset to the Late Aptian is continental, indicating an isolated environment disconnected from Atlantic oceans. During late‐most Aptian to Early Albian basin sedimentation changes and indicates a comparatively rapid marine water infill. Rifting of the BEM is not dominated by transcurrent deformation as previously inferred, with strike‐slip faulting limited to comparatively small sectors, whereas most of the margin extended by normal faulting deformation.

The chronology of the human colonization of the Canary Islands

The human colonization of the Canary Islands represents the sole known expansion of Berber communities into the Atlantic Ocean and is an example of marine dispersal carried out by an African population. While this island colonization shows similarities to the populating of other islands across the world, several questions still need to be answered before this case can be included in wider debates regarding patterns of initial colonization and human settlement, human-environment interactions, and the emergence of island identities. Specifically, the chronology of the first human settlement of the Canary Islands remains disputed due to differing estimates of the timing of its first colonization. This absence of a consensus has resulted in divergent hypotheses regarding the motivations that led early settlers to migrate to the islands, e.g., ecological or demographic. Distinct motivations would imply differences in the strategies and dynamics of colonization; thus, identifying them is crucial to understanding how these populations developed in such environments. In response, the current study assembles a comprehensive dataset of the most reliable radiocarbon dates, which were used for building Bayesian models of colonization. The findings suggest that i) the Romans most likely discovered the islands around the 1st century BCE; ii) Berber groups from western North Africa first set foot on one of the islands closest to the African mainland sometime between the 1st and 3rd centuries CE; iii) Roman and Berber societies did not live simultaneously in the Canary Islands; and iv) the Berber people rapidly spread throughout the archipelago.

Ultra‐Low Velocity Zone Beneath the Atlantic Near St. Helena

AbstractThere are various hotspots in the Atlantic Ocean, which are underlain by mantle plumes that likely cross the mantle and originate at the core‐mantle boundary. We use teleseismic core‐diffracted shear waves to look for an Ultra‐Low Velocity Zone (ULVZ) at the potential base of central Atlantic mantle plumes. Our data set shows delayed postcursory phases after the core‐diffracted shear waves. The observed patterns are consistent in frequency dependence, delay time, and scatter pattern with those caused by mega‐ULVZs previously modeled elsewhere. Synthetic modeling of a cylindrical structure on the core‐mantle boundary below St. Helena provides a good fit to the data. The preferred model is 600 km across and 20 km high, centered at approximately 15° South, 15° West, and with a 30% S‐wave velocity reduction. Significant uncertainties and trade‐offs do remain to these parameters, but a large ULVZ is needed to explain the data. The location is west of St. Helena and south of Ascension. Helium and neon isotopic systematics observed in samples from this region could point to a less‐outgassed mantle component mixed in with the dominant signature of recycled material. These observations could be explained by a contribution from the Large Low Shear Velocity Province (LLSVP). Tungsten isotopic measurements would be needed to understand whether a contribution from the mega‐ULVZ is also required at St. Helena or Ascension.

Emerging Hotspots of Surface Chlorophyll Trend in the Tropical Oceans

AbstractRecent studies show that climate change signals in the long‐term trend of the tropical ecosystems have emerged earlier than projected by climate models. However, it remains unclear whether tropical ocean surface chlorophyll (SChl) shows a robust trend in the available satellite data era, and what possible physical mechanisms can be responsible for this trend. Here, using combined data from observations, hindcast biogeochemical simulations, and climate model outputs, we document consistently decreasing trends of SChl in the three ocean basins (Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, and Atlantic Ocean) with varying magnitude from −1.6% to −10.0% per decade during 1998–2020, with tropical ocean SChl showing a decreasing trend of −7.1% per decade. In the Indo‐Pacific Ocean, mechanisms for the two hotspots with significantly decreasing SChl trends are identified. (a) In the northern tropical Pacific, under the anthropogenic forcing, enhanced stratification associated with frequent interannual surface warming overwhelms the Ekman pumping effect due to positive wind stress curl, leading to a decrease in SChl. (b) In the southern tropical Indian Ocean, the downwelling process dominates the decreasing SChl trend due to the Ekman pumping associated with the negative wind stress curl prevailing in the Indian Ocean, while the contribution from the stratification change is negligible. This study identifies two hotspots with consistently decreasing SChl trends in the tropical ocean which are influenced by the complex physical processes under a warmer climate and calls for more comprehensive understanding of the interactions between physical processes and biogeochemical cycles in the tropical ocean ecosystems.

Reconstruction of the marine carbonate system at the Western Tropical Atlantic: trends and variabilities from 20 years of the PIRATA program

The Western Tropical Atlantic Ocean (WTAO) is crucial for understanding CO2 dynamics due to inputs from major rivers (Amazon and Orinoco), substantial rainfall from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and CO2-rich waters from equatorial upwelling. This study, spanning 1998 to 2018, utilized sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) data from the PIRATA buoy at 8°N 38°W to reconstruct the surface marine carbonate system. Empirical models derived total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from SSS, with subsequent estimation of pH and fCO2 from TA, DIC, SSS, and SST data. Linear trend analysis showed statistically significant temporal trends: DIC and fCO2 increased at a rate of 0.7 µmol kg-1 year-1 and 1.539 µatm year-1, respectively, and pH decreased at a rate of -0.001 pH units year-1, although DIC did not show any trend after data was de-seasoned. Rainfall analysis revealed distinct dry (July to December) and wet (January to June) seasons, aligning with lower and higher freshwater influence on the ocean surface, respectively. TA, DIC, and pH correlated positively with SSS, exhibiting higher values during the dry season and lower values during the wet season. Conversely, fCO2 correlated positively with SST, showcasing higher values during the wet season and lower values during the dry season. This emphasizes the influential roles of SSS and SST variability in CO2 solubility within the region. Finally, we have analysed the difference between TA and DIC (TA-DIC) as an indicator for ocean acidification and found a decreasing trend of -0.93 ± 0.02 μmol kg-1 year-1, reinforcing the reduction in the surface ocean buffering capacity in this area. All trends found for the region agree with data from other stations in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. In conclusion, the use of empirical models proposed in this study has proven to help filling the gaps in marine carbonate system data in the Western Tropical Atlantic.

Evidence for Low‐Pressure Crustal Anatexis During the Northeast Atlantic Break‐Up

AbstractWhile basaltic volcanism is dominant during rifting and continental breakup, felsic magmatism may be a significant component of some rift margins. During International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 396 on the continental margin of Norway, a graphite‐garnet‐cordierite bearing dacitic unit (the Mimir dacite) was recovered in two holes within early Eocene sediments on Mimir High (Site U1570), a marginal high on the Vøring Transform Margin. Here, we present a comprehensive textural, petrological, and geochemical study of the Mimir dacite in order to assess its origin and discuss the geodynamic implications. The major mineral phases (garnet, cordierite, quartz, plagioclase, alkali feldspar) are hosted in a fresh rhyolitic, vesicular, glassy matrix that is locally mingled with sediments. The major element chemistry of garnet and cordierite, the presence of zircon inclusions with inherited cores, and thermobarometric calculations all support an upper crustal metapelitic origin. While most magma‐rich margin models favor crustal anatexis in the lower crust, thermobarometric calculations performed here show that the Mimir dacite was produced at upper‐crustal depths (&lt;5 kbar, 18 km depth) and high temperature (750–800°C) with up to 3 wt% water content. In situ U‐Pb analyses on zircon inclusions give a magmatic crystallization age of 54.6 ± 1.1 Ma, consistent with emplacement that post‐dates the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum. Our results suggest that the opening of the Northeast Atlantic was associated with a phase of low‐pressure, high‐temperature crustal anatexis preceding the main phase of magmatism.

Tipping Points in Overturning Circulation Mediated by Ocean Mixing and the Configuration and Magnitude of the Hydrological Cycle: A Simple Model

Abstract In the modern ocean, the transformation of light surface waters to dense deep waters primarily occurs in the Atlantic basin rather than in the North Pacific or Southern Oceans. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations suggest that sinking can sometimes occur in the Pacific. We present a six-box model of overturning that combines insights from a number of previous studies. A key determinant of the overturning configuration in our model is whether the Antarctic Intermediate Waters are denser than the northern subpolar waters, something that depends on the magnitude and configuration of atmospheric freshwater transport. For the modern ocean, we find that although the interbasin atmospheric freshwater flux suppresses Pacific sinking, the poleward atmospheric freshwater flux out of the subtropics enhances it. When atmospheric temperatures are held fixed, North Pacific overturning can strengthen with either increases or decreases in the hydrological cycle, as well as under reversal of the interbasin freshwater flux. Tipping-point behavior, where small changes in the hydrological cycle may cause the dominant location of densification of light waters to switch between basins and the magnitude of overturning within a basin to exhibit large jumps, is seen in both transient and equilibrium states. This behavior is modulated by parameters such as the poorly constrained lateral diffusive mixing coefficient. If hydrological cycle amplitude is varied consistently with global temperature, northern polar amplification is necessary for the Atlantic overturning to collapse. Certain qualitative insights incorporated in the model can be validated using a fully coupled climate model. Significance Statement Currently, the global overturning circulation involves the conversion of waters lighter than Antarctic Intermediate Water to deep waters denser than Antarctic Intermediate Water primarily in the North Atlantic, rather than in the North Pacific or Southern Oceans. Many different factors have been invoked to explain this configuration, with atmospheric freshwater transport, basin geometry, lateral mixing, and Southern Ocean winds playing major roles. This paper develops a simple theory that combines previous theories, presents the intriguing idea that alternate configurations might be possible, and identifies multiple possible tipping points between these states.