Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Research Articles

Impact of the Atlantic multidecadal variability on East Asian summer climate in idealized simulations

The impact of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on the East Asian summer climate is analyzed using a set of idealized simulations performed by CESM1. The results show that the AMV exerts a remote impact on the East Asian summer climate via two pathways: a midlatitude Rossby wave train and equatorial Kelvin waves. Specifically, the positive phase of the AMV can enhance the land–sea pressure contrast between the Asian continent and western North Pacific Ocean through the midlatitude Rossby wave train, and induce an anomalous anticyclone in the Northwest Pacific through exciting an equatorial Kelvin wave. These anomalies in atmospheric circulation in turn enhance the East Asian summer monsoon, leading to a northern-wet–southern-dry and warm summer climate in East Asia.

Precipitation and vegetation transpiration variations dominate the dynamics of agricultural drought characteristics in China

Agricultural drought posing a significant threat to agricultural production is subject to the complex influence of ocean, terrestrial and meteorological multi-factors. Nevertheless, which factor dominating the dynamics of agricultural drought characteristics and their dynamic impact remain equivocal. To address this knowledge gap, we used ERA5 soil moisture to calculate the standardized soil moisture index (SSI) to characterize agricultural drought. The extreme gradient boosting model was then adopted to fully examine the influence of ocean, terrestrial and meteorological multi-factors on agricultural drought characteristics and their dynamics in China. Meanwhile, the Shapley additive explanation values were introduced to quantify the contribution of multiple drivers to drought characteristics. Our analysis reveals that the drought frequency, severity and duration in China ranged from 5–70, 2.15–35.02 and 1.76–31.20, respectively. Drought duration is increasing and drought intensity is intensifying in southeast, north and northwest China. In addition, potential evapotranspiration is the most significant driver of drought characteristics at the basin scale. Regarding the dynamic evolution of drought characteristics, the percentages of raster points for drought duration and severity with evapotranspiration as the dominant factor are 30.7 % and 32.7 %, and the percentages with precipitation are 35.3 % and 35.0 %, respectively. Precipitation in northern regions has a positive effect on decreasing drought characteristics, while in southern regions, evapotranspiration dominates the dynamics in drought characteristics due to increasing vegetation transpiration. Moreover, the drought severity is exacerbated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Yangtze and Pearl River basins, while the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the drought duration evolution is increasing in the Yangtze River basin. Generally, this study sheds new insights into agricultural drought evolution and driving mechanism, which are beneficial for agricultural drought early warning and mitigation.

The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s

Abstract. The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of six tide gauge records covering the period 1890–2021. To isolate the effects of the wind field variations and the nodal tide from the local sea-level trend, we use four generalised additive models (GAMs) which include different predictive variables. From the sea-level trend estimates, we obtain the continuous evolution of the rate of SLR and its uncertainty over the observational period. The standard error in the estimation of the rate of SLR is reduced when we account for nodal-tide effects and is reduced further when we also account for the wind effects, meaning these provide better estimates of the rate of SLR. A part of the long-term SLR is due to wind forcing related to a strengthening and northward shift of the jet stream, but this SLR contribution decelerated over the observational period. Additionally, we detect wind-forced sea-level variability on multidecadal timescales with an amplitude of around 1 cm. Using a coherence analysis, we identify both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as its drivers. Crucially, accounting for the nodal-tide and wind effects changes the estimated rate of SLR, unmasking an SLR acceleration that started in the 1960s. Our best-fitting GAM, which accounts for nodal and wind effects, yields a rate of SLR of about 1.72.21.3 mm yr−1 in 1900–1919 and 1.51.91.2 mm yr−1 in 1940–1959 compared to 2.93.52.4 mm yr−1 in 2000–2019 (where the lower and upper bounds denote the 5th and 95th percentiles). If we discount the nodal tide, wind and fluctuation effects and assume a constant rate of SLR, then the probability (p value) of finding a rate difference between 1940–1959 and 2000–2019 of at least our estimate is smaller than 1 %. Consistent with global observations and the expectations based on the physics of global warming, our results show unequivocally that SLR along the Dutch coast has accelerated since the 1960s.

Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Rainfall by the North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractUnderstanding and quantifying the large‐scale environmental control of spatio‐temporal tropical cyclone (TC) variability beyond a few weeks remains a challenge with significant implications for societal impacts. This study focuses on the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and year‐to‐year changes in TC activity and rainfall using observational data and reanalysis products. We use Poisson regression models to show that low‐frequency NAO (LF‐NAO) variability is associated with a distinct pattern of TC activity, which extends across the western North Atlantic, the Caribbean Basin, and the Gulf of Mexico. The negative LF‐NAO phase is characterized by enhanced TC activity: an interquartile range decrease in the NAO corresponds to a 30%–40% increase in TC track density. While the NAO is known to affect the weather regimes of the mid‐latitudes, we show that its low‐frequency component has a strong correlation to the large‐scale environment across the Main Development Region of TCs. The negative LF‐NAO phase is associated with two favorable environmental conditions for TCs: significantly higher sea‐surface temperature and weaker deep‐tropospheric wind shear. The LF‐NAO relationship to TC activity is strongest during El Niño Southern Oscillation positive or neutral conditions and during the negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase, and it can also be detected in the basin‐scale variations of TC rainfall. By developing annual TC rainfall composites from satellite data and reanalysis products, we show that TC rainfall is strongly enhanced in the Caribbean and in the Gulf of Mexico during the negative LF‐NAO phase.

Temporal Variability of Global Surface Eddy Diffusivities: Estimates and Machine Learning Prediction

Abstract Mesoscale eddies, ubiquitous in the global ocean, play a key role in the climate system by stirring and mixing key tracers. Estimating, understanding, and predicting eddy diffusivity is of great significance for designing suitable eddy parameterization schemes for coarse-resolution climate models. This is because climate model results are sensitive to the choice of eddy diffusivity magnitudes. Using 24-yr satellite altimeter data and a Lagrangian approach, we estimate time-dependent global surface cross-stream eddy diffusivities. We found that eddy diffusivity has nonnegligible temporal variability, and the regionally averaged eddy diffusivity is significantly correlated with the climate indices, including the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and dipole mode index. We also found that, compared to the suppressed mixing length theory, random forest (RF) is more effective in capturing the temporal variability of regionally averaged eddy diffusivity. Our results indicate the need for using time-dependent eddy mixing coefficients in climate models and demonstrate the advantage of RF in predicting mixing temporal variability. Significance Statement Mixing induced by ocean eddies can greatly modulate the ocean circulation and climate variability. Steady eddy mixing coefficients are often specified in coarse-resolution climate models. However, using satellite observations, we show that the eddy mixing rate has significant temporal variability at the global ocean surface. The regional temporal variability of eddy mixing is linked with large-scale climate variability (e.g., North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation). We found that random forest, a user-friendly machine learning algorithm, is a better tool to predict the mixing temporal variability than the conventional mixing theory. This study suggests the possibility of improving climate model performance by using time-dependent eddy mixing coefficients inferred from machine learning methods.

Heterogeneity in Spatiotemporal Variability of High Mountain Asia's Runoff and Its Underlying Mechanisms

AbstractHigh Mountain Asia (HMA) is the headwater area for major Asian rivers, providing a vast amount of freshwater to billions of people in Asia. These rivers also make their surrounding areas highly vulnerable to destructive water‐related disasters. However, the complex spatiotemporal variability of runoff over HMA and its underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This study investigates into the spatial heterogeneity of HMA's runoff variability at three timescales (interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal) and the roles played by climate conditions and catchment properties. We find significant interannual and multidecadal variability of runoff in west and central HMA, and significant interdecadal variability in central and east HMA. At interannual and multidecadal timescales, the runoff variability tends to be more significant in dryer basins. The variability of runoff at the three timescales is largely controlled by climate variations, especially precipitation. The catchment properties, including groundwater storage and glacier‐snow meltwater, also play important roles in regulating the effect of precipitation. In particular, the high contributions of glacier‐snow meltwater in east HMA can weaken the response of runoff variability to precipitation at interannual and multidecadal timescales. The space‐time patterns of runoff variability over HMA are driven by atmospheric drivers including El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation across timescales. The results of this study provide a better understanding of HMA's runoff variability and its physical mechanisms, which have critical implications for sustainable freshwater management and effective risk mitigation in this densely populated and ecologically vulnerable region.

Quantitative Mechanisms of the Responses of Abrupt Seasonal Temperature Changes and Warming Hiatuses in China to Their Influencing Factors

Abrupt temperature changes and warming hiatuses have a great impact on socioeconomic systems; however, their mechanisms remain unclear. In this study, the quantitative mechanisms of the responses of abrupt seasonal temperature changes and warming hiatuses in China to their influencing factors were analysed using the monthly mean temperature (Tav), mean minimum temperature (Tnav), and mean maximum temperature (Txav) from 622 meteorological stations in China covering 1951–2018, the CMIP6 model data, and data at large spatial scales, including Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) data. The results showed that the contributions of the influencing factors to the abrupt changes in Tav, Tnav, and Txav showed large spatial variability and peaked in the spring and summer and bottomed out in the autumn. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) greatly impacted the abrupt temperature changes in Northeast China and North China at a contribution rate of approximately 12%, strongly influenced the abrupt temperature changes south of the Yangtze River, and markedly influenced the abrupt temperature changes in Northwest China. The AMO had a large impact on temperature in most regions of China in all seasons except for the summer. The MEI mainly affected the abrupt seasonal temperature changes in the region between 25° N and 35° N. The Arctic oscillation (AO) substantially impacted the warming hiatuses in Northeast China in the winter at a contribution rate of approximately 12%. These influencing factors contributed less to warming hiatuses than to abrupt temperature changes. Among the regional influencing factors, AP and WS greatly impacted warming hiatuses, more so than abrupt temperature changes, while relative humidity (RH) and solar radiation (SR) contributed little to warming hiatuses.

Investigation of marine temperature changes across temporal and spatial Gradients: Providing a fundament for studies on the effects of warming on marine ecosystem function and biodiversity

A current critical issue in climate change studies is how temperature changes and shifts on different spatial and temporal scales can affect organisms in terms of trends, variability and frequency of extremes. In this paper, we analysed marine temperature data on different temporal and spatial scales. We related the sea surface temperature data from the Helgoland Roads Time Series, one of the most important and detailed long-term in situ marine ecological time series, to the Sylt Roads, North Sea, Germany, Europe, North Atlantic and Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures. All time series showed a distinct upwards shift in temperature in the late 1980s, early 1990s, with positive trends in overall for the period between 1962 and 2019 ranging from 1 to 2 °C over 57 years. We quantified changes in temperature variability by comparing the years before and after 1990, on both long-term and seasonal scales. At Helgoland and Sylt, an increase in the number of warmer days in summer and a decrease in extremely cold days in winter are the new characteristics of the temperature pattern after 1990; higher than expected temperatures now also occur earlier during the year. For these locations, we observed the highest trends overall, i.e. of around 0.3 °C/decade. The observed bimodal shape of the probability density functions, characterized by winter and summer modes, had become more heterogeneous, with the cold mode peak moving to higher values and the steepness to the peak increasing, which is a consequence of a decrease in extremely cold days. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) large-scale phenomena had no significant correlations or, for the NAO, were limited to the winter season at the regional and local scales. The closest landmass (mainland Germany) temperature was highly correlated with the North Sea sites. Taken together, our results suggest that marine pelagic ecosystems and their species are subject to temperature shifts with similar patterns but with variations in magnitude at the different scales. Temperature is one of the main drivers of species diversity and distribution, and this manifests on different spatial and temporal scales depending on population growth, life stages, cycles and habitat. Accordingly, we here present the temperature changes on the appropriate spatio-temporal scales, and thus provide the suitable and useful fundament for studies on the effects of warming on marine ecosystem function and biodiversity.

Regional growth rates and growth synchronicity between two populations of Arctica islandica in the western Mid-Atlantic (US)

Arctica islandica supports an important fishery in the US Mid-Atlantic. This species is extremely slow growing and long-lived, characteristics that may make this species particularly vulnerable to fishing pressure and climate change. Understanding regional growth dynamics over time and growth responses to changing environments will improve current fishery assessments to maintain the sustainability of this stock. Two populations of A. islandica from Georges Bank and off Long Island on the US continental shelf with observed ages between 17 and 310 y were evaluated for age-at-length relationships and growth trends over time. Growth rates have been increasing at Georges Bank and Long Island since the 1700s. Growth rates at Long Island have been accelerating and have exceeded those at Georges Bank since the 1980s. Growth rates from this study support previous research that this species is sexually dimorphic, and females grow faster than males within a population post-maturation. Positive growth index periods at both sites may be synchronous with 32-y harmonics of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. A modification to the traditional Tanaka growth model that included a growth term to further increase growth at old age proved the best-fit growth model to not only each population, but also to birth-year cohorts. Both the classic and modified Tanaka models used in this study are vast improvements over the von Bertalanffy models currently applied to this species in assessment models and population dynamics models. Increasing growth rates over time resulted in fewer years of reproduction prior to recruiting to the fishery as A. islandica are reaching fishery size in an increasingly short period of time. The impact that reduced years of reproduction has on A. islandica population resiliency is yet unknown.

Internal Variability of the Climate System Mirrored in Decadal‐Scale Trends of Surface Solar Radiation

AbstractDecadal‐scale unforced climate variability associated with low‐frequency ocean (or coupled) modes can be identified within the time‐evolving sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. We seek to find a relationship between 12 well‐known climate modes of variability (El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, etc.), which are reflected in the SST pattern, and decadal trends in downwelling shortwave radiation at Earth's surface (surface solar radiation, surface shortwave radiation [SSR]). The analysis is performed using the pre‐industrial control runs (piControl) of 57 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6. We find that regional SSR trends occur during periods when a climate mode is transitioning and show a mirroring pattern (opposite sign SSR trends) when the mode transitions in the opposite direction. Unforced trends in clear‐sky SSR are mostly driven by SST‐induced water vapor changes, while all‐sky SSR trends show a complex spatial structure with trends of different signs in different regions. Unforced SSR trends are generally weaker in simulations with climatological SSTs. The role of natural aerosols as another potentially relevant factor for SSR variability is briefly addressed and we find that constantly higher aerosol loads result in increased variability for clear‐sky conditions, but not for all‐sky conditions. The results from this study suggest that all‐sky dimming and brightening in different parts of the world are enhanced rather than suppressed by internal variability related to an SST‐pattern with the exception of India and China, where both effects are present. A practical application can be the planning of photovoltaic energy facilities given areas where internal variability is generally smaller or affects SSR in opposite directions.

Interdecadal Variability of the Meridional Wind across the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and Its Relationship with ENSO

Abstract The interdecadal variability of cross-equatorial meridional winds in the eastern Pacific (VEP), which has been shown to correlate with the amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interdecadal time scale, is investigated using long-term observations and 22 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Both observations and models exhibit a tight negative correlation between interannual variations of VEP and ENSO, and this relationship is synchronized with the interdecadal variability of VEP. In long-term observations, ENSO amplitude modulation is still seen to be out-of-phase with interdecadal variability of VEP. This relationship, however, is substantially underestimated among CMIP6 models, particularly in the historical simulations. The interdecadal variability of VEP is associated with both the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) in observations. However, most CMIP6 preindustrial control (PI-control) experiments have no link between the VEP and AMO. In contrast, in historical simulations, the multimodel mean of interdecadal VEP shows a significant fluctuation with AMO around the 1980s, which might be caused by the anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Consequently, the interdecadal variation of the AMO–VEP relationship is likely a response to external forcing while the IPO–VEP relationship is mainly modulated by internal climate variability. Another plausible factor causing the weak AMO–VEP relationship in PI-control runs is the unrealistic relationship between modeled SSTs in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Furthermore, model biases in the tropical Pacific may account for the weak relationship between interdecadal VEP and ENSO amplitude in CMIP6 models.

The impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on Baltic Sea temperatures limited to winter

We analyze multidecadal temperature fluctuations of the Atlantic Ocean and their influence on Northern Europe, focusing on the Baltic Sea, without a priori assuming a linear relationship of this teleconnection. Instead, we use the method of low-frequency component analysis to identify modes of multidecadal variability in the Baltic Sea temperature signal and relate this signal to the Atlantic climate variability. Disentangling the seasonal impact reveals that a large fraction of the variability in Baltic Sea winter temperatures is related to multidecadal temperature fluctuations in the North Atlantic, known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). The strong winter response can be linked to the interaction between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the AMV and is maintained by oceanic inertia. In contrast, the AMV does not influence the Baltic Sea’s summer and spring water temperatures.

Role of environmental conditions in structuring the stock trajectory of Thunnus albacares, Th. alalunga and Th. obesus in the South Pacific Region

The lifestyle and culture of South Pacific Island countries have been long intertwined with oceanic resources. These countries are heavily dependent on tuna resources for their economies and socioeconomic livelihoods. Despite their importance, the mechanisms behind tuna stock trajectory patterns need to be better understood. With changing climatic and environmental conditions, it has become vital to understand the impact of these changes on tuna resources and if possible include them in long-term tuna harvest and management plans. A significant portion of the stock dynamics of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares), albacore tuna (Th. alalunga) and bigeye tuna (Th. obesus) in the South Pacific Region may possibly be explained only by the environmental factors of sea surface temperature (SST) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO. The relationship of monthly SST and AMO was investigated with time series stock patterns of Th. albacares, Th. alalunga and Th. obesus in the Eastern and Western Pacific Ocean for the years 1972 to 2019. Monthly variables that exhibited significant correlation with CPUE variables were used in the Generalised Linear Model and Generalized Additive Model to reproduce the CPUE trajectory of the three tuna species from 1972 to 2019. Results showed that a significant portion of stock dynamics of Th. albacares, Th. alalunga and Th. obesus can be explained well by two environmental conditions of SST and AMO. This shows that a large portion of tuna variation in the Eastern and Southern Pacific is related to environmental conditions. Models with single variables are evidence of the significant individual effect of SST and AMO on stock time series of each tuna species. Models with two variables had a better fit in comparison to models with a single variable for all tuna stocks. Possibilities of two significantly different patterns in the trajectory of the three tuna species and environmental conditions used in the models were also observed. The trajectory patterns seemed to change around the 1990s and had significantly different means, indicating possible regime shifts. Environmental conditions play a highly significant role in structuring tuna stock trajectory in the South Pacific and need to be included in tuna management / harvest plans to ensure sustainability of this important resource. The importance of regime shifts should be recognised and further investigated for possible inclusion in tuna sustainability plans due to their influence on long-term tuna trajectory patterns.

Multidecadal climate variability dominated past trends in the water balance of the Baltic Sea watershed

The Baltic Sea watershed includes the territories of 14 countries in Northern, Central, and Eastern Europe. Long-term observations have shown that the climate in this area is characterised by a pronounced multidecadal variability, with a period of about 30 years, but its origin is thus far unknown. We propose that the observed ~30-year fluctuations in Baltic Sea salinity are caused by the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation, which together modulate precipitation over the watershed and hence the river discharge into the Baltic Sea. The return of a large portion of the outflowing brackish Baltic Sea water with the inflowing salt water, due to mixing at the entrance area results in a positive feedback mechanism that amplifies the multidecadal variations in salinity. The strength of this self-amplification is considerable since atmospheric forcing has nearly the same periodicity as the response time of the freshwater content to external freshwater inputs.

Precipitation variability using GPCC data and its relationship with atmospheric teleconnections in Northeast Brazil

The present study investigates the influence of different atmospheric teleconnections on the annual precipitation variability in Northeast Brazil (NEB) based on the annual precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) from 1901 to 2013. The objective of this study is to analyze the influence of different atmospheric teleconnections on the total annual precipitation of NEB for the 1901–2013 period, considering the physical characteristics of four subregions, i.e., Mid-north, Backwoods, Agreste, and Forest zone. To analyze the influence of different atmospheric teleconnections, GPCC data were used, and the behavior of the teleconnections was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficient, Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), and cross-wavelet analysis. The Pearson correlation was used to analyze the influence on the annual precipitation for the studied region. RAI was used to calculate the frequency of atmospheric patterns and drought episodes. The cross-wavelet analysis was applied to identify similarity signals between precipitation series and atmospheric teleconnections. The results of the Pearson correlation assessed according to Student's t test and cross-wavelet analysis showed that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) exerts a more significant influence on the Backwoods region at an interannual scale. In contrast, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) exerts greater control over the modulation of the climatic patterns in NEB. The results of the study are insightful and reveal the differential impacts of teleconnections such as the AMO, PDO, MEI, and NAO on precipitation in the four sub-regions of NEB. The Atlantic circulation patterns strongly influence the interannual and interdecadal precipitation in the Agreste, Backwoods, and Mid-north regions, possibly associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position. Finally, this study contributes to understanding internal climatic variability in NEB and planning of water resources and agricultural activities in such a region.Graphic abstract

Short and long-term temperature variations drive recruitment variability in marine and estuarine juvenile fishes

Understanding the long-term effects of climatic factors on key species' recruitment is crucial to species management and conservation. Here, we analysed the recruitment variability of key species (Dicentrarchus labrax, Platichthys flesus, Solea solea, Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus) in an estuary between 2003 and 2019, and related it with the prevailing local and large-scale environmental factors. Using a dynamic factor analysis (DFA), juvenile abundance data were grouped into three common trends linked to different habitat uses and life cycle characteristics, with significant effect of temperature-related variables on fish recruitment: Sea surface temperature and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In 2010, a regime shift in the North Atlantic coincided with a shift in the common trends, particularly a decline in P. flesus and S. solea trend. This work highlights the thermophilic character of fish recruitment and the necessity to investigate key biological processes in the context of species-specific responses to climate change.

Rain triggers seasonal stratification in a temperate shelf sea

The North Atlantic Storm Track acts as a conveyor belt for extratropical cyclones that frequently deliver high winds and rainfall to northwest European shelf seas. Storms are primarily considered detrimental to shelf sea stratification due to wind-driven mixing countering thermal buoyancy, but their impact on shelf scale stratification cycles remains poorly understood. Here, we show that storms trigger stratification through enhanced surface buoyancy from rainfall. A multidecadal model confirms that rainfall contributed to triggering seasonal stratification 88% of the time from 1982 to 2015. Stratification could be further modulated by large-scale climate oscillations, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), with stratification onset dates being twice as variable during a positive AMV phase than a negative one. Further insights into how changing storm activity will impact shelf seas are discussed beyond the current view of increasing wind-driven mixing, with significant implications for marine productivity and ecosystem function.

Phase Shift of the Winter South China Sea Western Boundary Current Over the Past Two Decades and Its Drivers

AbstractThe winter South China Sea (SCS) western boundary current (WBC) has presented a significant weak–strong–weak phase shift in the last two decades, as revealed by observations and model products. Its phase shift has mainly been attributed to the joint effect of wind stress curl over the SCS and Luzon Strait transport (LST). Changes in the wind stress curl and planetary vorticity input through the Luzon Strait are the two major sources maintaining the winter SCS WBC state in different phases. The LST is closely related to the Kuroshio strength and thus the Pacific North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation. Therefore, the winter SCS WBC phase shift is attributed to phase shifts of the winter monsoon and the NEC bifurcation, which are mostly related to those of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, respectively. Understanding the SCS circulation low‐frequency variability is essential to forecast its thermodynamic state and regional climate effect.

Atlantic decadal-to-bidecadal variability in a version of the Kiel Climate Model

Atlantic decadal-to-bidecadal variability (ADV) is described from a multimillennial control integration of a version of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The KCM’s ADV is the second most energetic mode of long-term North Atlantic variability in that simulation, whereas the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is the leading mode that has been described in a previous study. The KCM’s ADV can be regarded as a mixed oceanic gyre-overturning circulation mode that is forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. The extratropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the model’s ADV initially exhibit a tripolar structure in the meridional direction, which is linked to the gyre circulation. After some years, the SST-anomaly pattern turns into a monopolar pattern located in the subpolar North Atlantic. This transition is related to the overturning circulation. The AMV and the ADV co-exist and share some similarities. Both modes of variability rely on the upper-ocean heat transport into the subpolar North Atlantic. They differ in the importance of the gyre and overturning circulations. In the ADV, gyre and overturning-heat transports into the subpolar North Atlantic are equally important in contrast to the AMV where the overturning contribution dominates.

Contrasting Responses of Atlantic and Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

AbstractThis research assesses the influences of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on global tropical cyclones (TCs) using two large ensembles of idealized global climate model simulations with opposite signs of AMV forcings superimposed (i.e., AMV+ and AMV–). We first detect TCs and then compare TC activity by basin in the two AMV experiments. We find contrasting responses of Atlantic and Pacific TC frequency to the AMV anomalies. Compared to AMV–, AMV+ significantly increases TC frequency in the North Atlantic, including those making landfalls. The increase is explained by warmer sea surface temperature, higher relative humidity, increased relative vorticity, and weaker vertical wind shear under AMV+. By contrast, AMV+ decreases TC occurrence over the western North Pacific and South Pacific, which is tied to stronger vertical wind shear and lower relative humidity. The opposite responses of TC activity to AMV+ are attributed to strengthened Walker Circulation between the Atlantic and Pacific.