Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Intensity Research Articles

Coupled atmosphere-ocean response of the southwest Pacific to deglacial changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The last glacial termination was characterised by millennial-scale episodes of warming and cooling that appear offset between the hemispheres. It has been proposed that this bi-polar seesaw is the result of climate system feedbacks. A key debate, which remains unresolved, concerns the relative roles of the atmosphere and oceans in transmitting these climate responses between the hemispheres. In this study we present quantitative climate proxy data to show that air temperatures in New Zealand, as recorded by mountain glaciers, tracked millennial-scale warming and cooling of local surface temperatures of the adjacent Tasman Sea throughout the last glacial termination. Both realms were dominated by warming between 18 ka and 12 ka, interrupted by a multi-centennial to millennial-scale cooling event centred on 14 ka, coincident with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Reconciling our climate proxy evidence with a transient climate model simulation of the glacial termination, we find that the timing and amplitude of temperature changes are consistent with changing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The southwest Pacific region displays a particularly sensitive response to AMOC intensity changes, despite its far-field situation from the North Atlantic. This sensitivity represents the combined impact of fast-acting oceanic teleconnections and regional atmosphere-ocean response associated with changes to the southern westerly winds. Our findings highlight that recent hypotheses promoting the role of southern westerlies as a critical component of deglaciation may be complementary to, rather than competitive with, the bipolar seesaw paradigm.

Abrupt intensification of AMOC and monsoonal winds during mid-MIS4 (Heinrich Event 6) in the western Arabian Sea

In the Arabian Sea (AS), higher organic matter preservation and biological productivity are observed during the summer due to strong southwest monsoonal winds. Centennial and millennial-scale fluctuation in the geochemical and relative abundance of foraminifera species are widely used to study the past preservation and productivity variation reconstruction in the Western Arabian Sea (WAS). The sediment records from the AS also show similarities with the North Atlantic and Greenland mainly during Heinrich events (HEs) which is related to the atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections of the AS with the higher latitude climate perturbations. In this context, we used a sediment core VM3504-PC from the WAS to understand the long-term changes in productivity and organic matter preservation using Globigerina bulloides (G. bulloides) relative abundance, total organic carbon (TOC) content, and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) wt%. The TOC and G. bulloides shows a positive correlation, while significantly negative correlation is recorded in the TOC % and CaCO3 wt% datasets during interglacial periods (MIS5e-b, MIS3, and MIS1). Our results show evidence of CaCO3 dissolution and intense summer monsoon induced upwelling related productivity in core location during interglacial periods (MIS5e), based on higher relative abundance of G. bulloides (%), higher TOC content, and lower CaCO3 wt%. Interestingly, higher preservation of organic matter and increased productivity/nutrient concentration during mid-MIS4 suggesting stronger upwelling/winter convective mixing together with higher aeolian transport from adjacent landmasses. The abrupt weakening in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) synchronized with low productivity due to weak monsoon during HEs except for H6 and H4 in the tropical Indian Ocean. The H6 coincides with mid-MIS4 is showing abnormal preservation. Thus, AMOC and the summer monsoon significantly regulate primary productivity in the WAS. It is interesting to note that possibly well‑oxygenated deep-water masses do not penetrate up to surface water and/or ballistic effect (indicated by moderate sedimentation rate), preventing organic matter degradation on the seafloor during mid-MIS4.

Millennial-scale changes in the environment, ice conditions, and deep-water ventilation at the Detroit–Tenji Seamounts, Northwest Pacific, over the last 43 kyr

The Western Subarctic Gyre (WSG) in the North Pacific represents the termination of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It has been strongly influenced by periodic glaciations of adjacent landmasses, orbital- and millennial-scale variability of its environment, and ventilation, which, to date, have been poorly studied. In this study, we investigated sediment core LV76-21 recovered from the Detroit Seamount using several productivity and lithological proxies, δ18O records of planktic and benthic foraminifera (δ18Opf and δ18Obf), AMS 14C data. We also used the published results from three well-dated cores from the Detroit and Tenji Seamounts. Comparison of the δ18Opf and δ18Obf records allowed us to establish iceberg discharge events 1 and 1’ at 39–36.8 and 42–40 ka, respectively, in the WSG over the last 43 kyr. This was accompanied by considerable lightning of δ18Opf relative to the coeval δ18Obf values. The lithological results have also shown variable sea-ice influence on the regional environment during Marine Isotope Stage 3 and particularly 2, with sea ice extensions at 28.5–25.5 ka and 17.6–16.6 ka, and its significant loss since the Bølling–Allerød warming. We used high resolution δ18Obf records from studied cores as a subtle proxy of contribution of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) to Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW), which originating from around Antarctica and have slightly different δ18Obf values, in order to reconstruction of its spatial variability in the context of regional deep-water ventilation. The contribution of NADW to LCDW in the ventilation of the western flank of Detroit Seamount significantly increased during the interglacial and long-lasting Dansgaard–Oeschger interstadials, which was synchronous with the AMOC intensification. Over the last 43 kyr, the deep water of its eastern flank has been constantly ventilated by the LCDW with low contribution of NADW.

Deglacial Temperature and Carbonate Saturation State Variability in the Tropical Atlantic at Antarctic Intermediate Water Depths

AbstractVariations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) redistribute heat and nutrients, causing pronounced anomalies of temperature and nutrient concentrations in the subsurface ocean. However, exactly how millennial‐scale deglacial AMOC variability influenced the subsurface is debated, and the role of other deglacial forcings of subsurface temperature change is unclear. Here, we present a new deglacial temperature reconstruction, which, with published records, helps assess competing hypotheses for deglacial warming in the upper tropical North Atlantic. Our record provides new evidence of regional subsurface warming in the western tropical North Atlantic within the core of modern Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), an early deglacial interval of iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic. Our results are consistent with model simulations that suggest subsurface heat accumulates in the northern high‐latitude convection regions and along the upper AMOC return path when the AMOC weakens, and with warming due to rising greenhouse gases. Warming of AAIW may have also contributed to warming in the tropics at modern AAIW depths during late HS1. Nutrient and reconstructions from the same site suggest a link between AMOC intensity and the northward extent of AAIW in the northern tropics across the deglaciation and on millennial time scales. However, the timing of the initial deglacial increase in AAIW to the northern tropics is ambiguous. Deglacial trends and variability of in the upper North Atlantic have likely biased temperature reconstructions based on the elemental composition of calcitic benthic foraminifera.

Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere

Earth system models exhibit considerable intermodel spread in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity and its carbon uptake, resulting in great uncertainty in future climate. Here we show that present-day sea surface salinity (SSS) in the North Atlantic subpolar region modulates anthropogenic carbon uptake in the North Atlantic, and thus can be used to constrain future warming. Specifically, models that generate a present-day higher SSS in the North Atlantic subpolar region generate a greater uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the future, suppressing the greenhouse effect and resulting in slower warming, and vice versa in models with a present-day lower SSS. Emergent constraints based on the observed SSS greatly reduce the uncertainty of the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature warming and accumulative carbon uptake by about 30% and 53%, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5 scenario.

Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on Upper Water Temperature of the North Atlantic and the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean

In this study we investigate the impact of variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on water temperature of the upper 100-m layer of the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans. We use three data-sets (ARMOR-3D, SODA3.4.2 и ORAS4) with different spatial resolution and covering different time periods. The temperature variability is decomposed into its natural modes using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF). The second EOF, which accounts for 20–27% of dispersion of water temperature in the upper ocean, is associated with a change in the AMOC intensity. The time variability of the principal component of this mode has high correlation with the AMOC (0.6–0.9 depending on the data-set and the AMOC index used). The AMOC has the highest impact on water temperature in the Irminger and Labrador seas. The related amplitude of water temperature fluctuations reaches 1.5–2°С in the central part of the Irminger Sea, which is one of the key deep convection regions. Intensification of the AMOC leads to an increase the upper ocean temperature over most of the North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea and to a decrease of water temperature over most of the Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and in an area north of Spitsbergen.

Changing sea-surface and deep-water conditions in the southern Cape Verde Basin during the mid-Pleistocene to Holocene

Reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) based on long-term records spanning multiple glacial-interglacial transitions is essential for understanding the interplay between ocean dynamics and global climate change. However, despite valuable previous studies, many uncertainties remain, especially regarding the distribution of glacial water masses in the Atlantic and the AMOC intensity. Such long-term reconstructions are highly constrained by sedimentary geochemical records. Here, we present isotope, geochemical, and micropaleontological records from the core ANS-33047 retrieved from the southern part of the Cape Verde Basin at a water depth of 4027 m. The data reflect the glacial–interglacial changes in surface and near-bottom conditions in the area over the last 513 kyr. Within the upper ocean layer, enhanced bioproductivity associated with northward ITCZ migration has been determined during MIS 13/12, early MIS 11, 9, 7, and MIS 1. A gradual deepening of the mixed layer is inferred from MIS 5 to the present. Stronger deep-water upwelling and shoaling of the mixed layer over the study site preceded these intervals. In the deep-water environment, we propose three different regimes within the interglacials: a “classical model” and “local productivity effect” associated with a stronger advection of paleo-NADW into the study area (MIS 11, 5, 1, warm early phases of MIS 9 and 7, MIS 13/12 boundary), as well as “amplified paleo-AABW influence” (late MIS 13 and 7). The bottom-water chemistry was affected by organic matter degradation coinciding with intervals of northward ITCZ migrations and enhanced surface bioproductivity. The most prominent signal of southern-sourced deep water was reconstructed during the late MIS 12, MIS 8, and at the MIS 10/9 boundary. During MIS 3 and sub-stage 12b, the study area was bathed by a mixture of paleo-NADW and paleo-AABW. A comparison of the carbon isotope records from the northeastern and southeastern equatorial Atlantic demonstrates a larger difference in the deep-water properties within glacials in contrast to interglacials. • ITCZ shifts northwards and bioproductivity is enhanced during interglacial intervals. • Increased surface bioproductivity affects δ 13 C composition of paleo-NADW. • Three deep-water regimes occurrs within interglacials. • Stronger meridional variability of deep-water circulation in cold climatic phases.

Last Glacial central Mediterranean hydrology inferred from Lake Trasimeno’s (Italy) calcium carbonate geochemistry

There is still a paucity of hydrological data explaining the relationship between (rapid, millennial‐scale) climate forcing and Mediterranean rainfall since the Last Glacial. We show that distinct lake‐level fluctuations at Lake Trasimeno (Italy) are associated with changing aridity in the central Mediterranean during the last ~47 800 years. The lake‐level fluctuations are reconstructed based on carbonate mineral content and carbonate mineral species, as well as the stable oxygen and carbon isotope (δ18O and δ13C) geochemistry of endogenic carbonates. Low lake levels are linked to high carbonate, Mg‐calcite and aragonite contents, and high δ18O and δ13C values. Inferred hydrological changes are linked to glacial–interglacial and, tentatively within the limitations of our chronology, to millennial‐scale climate variability as well as the intensity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), during intervals equivalent to Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), a stronger AMOC associated with Greenland interstadial periods (Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) warm periods) and stronger Asian monsoon probably coincide with increased precipitation in central Italy as inferred from high lake levels at Lake Trasimeno. Periods of weak AMOC intensity such as during Greenland stadials (D/O cold periods), during Heinrich events, and weak Asian monsoons are correlated with lake level lowstands, which imply relatively dry conditions in central Italy. Lake Trasimeno’s water level during the LGM and the Lateglacial (MIS 2) is relatively stable, with recorded changes showing distinct similarities to orbital configurations. Although muted, high latitude climate forcing is still evident in the data during peak glacial conditions. The transition from D/O‐like hydrological variability at Lake Trasimeno during MIS 3 to orbitally controlled fluctuations during the Lateglacial to Holocene transition coincides with an increasing amplitude in local winter and summer insolation, probably indicating increasing seasonality and a larger temperature gradient between low‐ and high‐latitude settings.

Global Oceanic Overturning Circulation Forced by the Competition between Greenhouse Gases and Continental Ice Sheets during the Last Deglaciation

AbstractThe deglacial change of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 ka) has been studied extensively in both reconstructions and model simulations. While reconstructions suggest a shoaling of AMOC at the LGM, the strength of glacial AMOC relative to the modern day remains highly uncertain in both reconstructions and models. Using transient simulations of climate evolution forced by individual deglacial forcings since the LGM, this study shows that the uncertainties in glacial AMOC intensity can be caused by a competition between the elevated glacial Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets and the reduced glacial greenhouse gases, in which the former tend to strengthen the AMOC while the latter play an opposite role. In spite of the dramatic difference of climate between the LGM and the present, the cancellation between the impacts of the two forcings leaves the strength of the glacial AMOC not too different from the modern day (0.5 Sv stronger in our study; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Furthermore, consistent with theoretical analysis, the response of the AMOC return flow to either forcing is predominantly compensated by an interbasin exchange between the Indo-Pacific (including the Indo-Pacific sector of Southern Ocean) and Atlantic via the Agulhas Current.

Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate.

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to slow down under anthropogenic warming, the exact role of the AMOC in future climate change has not been fully quantified. Here, we present a method to stabilize the AMOC intensity in anthropogenic warming experiments by removing fresh water from the subpolar North Atlantic. This method enables us to isolate the AMOC climatic impacts in experiments with a full-physics climate model. Our results show that a weakened AMOC can explain ocean cooling south of Greenland that resembles the North Atlantic warming hole and a reduced Arctic sea ice loss in all seasons with a delay of about 6 years in the emergence of an ice-free Arctic in boreal summer. In the troposphere, a weakened AMOC causes an anomalous cooling band stretching from the lower levels in high latitudes to the upper levels in the tropics and displaces the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude jets poleward.

Assessing the potential capability of reconstructing glacial Atlantic water masses and AMOC using multiple proxies in CESM

Reconstructing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is essential for understanding glacial-interglacial climate change and the carbon cycle. However, despite many previous studies, uncertainties remain regarding the glacial water mass distributions in the Atlantic and the AMOC intensity. Here we use an isotope enabled ocean model with multiple geotracers (δ13C, εNd, 231Pa/230Th, δ18O and Δ14C) and idealized water tracers to study the potential constraints on LGM ocean circulation from multiple proxies. Our model suggests that the glacial Atlantic water mass distribution can be accurately constrained by the air-sea gas exchange signature of water masses (δ13CAS), but εNd might overestimate the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) percentage in the deep Atlantic probably because of the boundary source of Nd. A sensitivity experiment with an AMOC of similar geometry but much weaker strength suggests that the correct AMOC geometry is more important than the AMOC strength for simulating the observed glacial δ13C and εNd distributions. The kinematic tracer 231Pa/230Th is sensitive to AMOC intensity, but the interpretation might be complicated by the AMOC geometry and AABW transport changes during the LGM. δ18O in the benthic foraminifera (δ18Oc) from the Florida Straits provides a consistent measure of the upper ocean boundary current in the model, which potentially provides an unambiguous method to reconstruct glacial AMOC intensity. Finally, we propose that the moderate difference between AMOC intensity at LGM and PD, if any, is caused by the competition of the responses to CO2 forcing and continental ice sheet forcing.

Robust and Nonrobust Aspects of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability and Mechanisms in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract Robust and nonrobust aspects of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability and mechanisms are analyzed in several 600-yr simulations with the Community Earth System Model. The simulations consist of a set of cases where a few loosely constrained ocean model parameter values are changed, a pair of cases where round-off level perturbations are applied to the initial atmospheric temperature field, and a millennium-scale integration. The time scales of variability differ among the cases with the dominant periods ranging from decadal to centennial. These dominant periods are not stationary in time, indicating that a robust characterization of AMOC temporal variability requires long, multimillennium-scale simulations. A robust aspect is that positive anomalies of the Labrador Sea (LS) upper-ocean density and boundary layer depth and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation lead AMOC strengthening by 2–3 years. Respective contributions of temperature and salinity to these density anomalies vary across the simulations, but in a majority of the cases temperature contributions dominate. Following an AMOC intensification, all cases show that advection of warm and salty waters into the LS region results in near-neutral density anomalies. Analysis of the LS heat budget indicates that temperature acts to increase density in all cases prior to an AMOC intensification, primarily due to losses by sensible and latent heat fluxes. The accompanying salt budget analysis reveals that the salt contribution to density anomalies varies across the cases, taking both positive and negative values.

The HadCM3 contribution to PlioMIP phase 2

Abstract. We present the UK's input into the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) using the Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3). The 400 ppm CO2 Pliocene experiment has a mean annual surface air temperature that is 2.9 ∘C warmer than the pre-industrial and a polar amplification of between 1.7 and 2.2 times the global mean warming. The Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM4) enhanced Pliocene palaeogeography accounts for a warming of 1.4 ∘C, whilst the CO2 increase from 280 to 400 ppm leads to a further 1.5 ∘C of warming. Climate sensitivity is 3.5 ∘C for the pre-industrial and 2.9 ∘C for the Pliocene. Precipitation change between the pre-industrial and Pliocene is complex, with geographic and land surface changes primarily modifying the geographical extent of mean annual precipitation. Sea ice fraction and areal extent are reduced during the Pliocene, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, although they persist through summer in both hemispheres. The Pliocene palaeogeography drives a more intense Pacific and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This intensification of AMOC is coincident with more widespread deep convection in the North Atlantic. We conclude by examining additional sensitivity experiments and confirm that the choice of total solar insolation (1361 vs. 1365 Wm−2) and orbital configuration (modern vs. 3.205 Ma) does not significantly influence the anomaly-type analysis in use by the Pliocene community.

Water mass distributions and transports for the 2014 GEOVIDE cruise in the North Atlantic

Abstract. We present the distribution of water masses along the GEOTRACES-GA01 section during the GEOVIDE cruise, which crossed the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean and the Labrador Sea in the summer of 2014. The water mass structure resulting from an extended optimum multiparameter (eOMP) analysis provides the framework for interpreting the observed distributions of trace elements and their isotopes. Central Waters and Subpolar Mode Waters (SPMW) dominated the upper part of the GEOTRACES-GA01 section. At intermediate depths, the dominant water mass was Labrador Sea Water, while the deep parts of the section were filled by Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) and North-East Atlantic Deep Water. We also evaluate the water mass volume transports across the 2014 OVIDE line (Portugal to Greenland section) by combining the water mass fractions resulting from the eOMP analysis with the absolute geostrophic velocity field estimated through a box inverse model. This allowed us to assess the relative contribution of each water mass to the transport across the section. Finally, we discuss the changes in the distribution and transport of water masses between the 2014 OVIDE line and the 2002–2010 mean state. At the upper and intermediate water levels, colder end-members of the water masses replaced the warmer ones in 2014 with respect to 2002–2010, in agreement with the long-term cooling of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre that started in the mid-2000s. Below 2000 dbar, ISOW increased its contribution in 2014 with respect to 2002–2010, with the increase being consistent with other estimates of ISOW transports along 58–59° N. We also observed an increase in SPMW in the East Greenland Irminger Current in 2014 with respect to 2002–2010, which supports the recent deep convection events in the Irminger Sea. From the assessment of the relative water mass contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) across the OVIDE line, we conclude that the larger AMOC intensity in 2014 compared to the 2002–2010 mean was related to both the increase in the northward transport of Central Waters in the AMOC upper limb and to the increase in the southward flow of Irminger Basin SPMW and ISOW in the AMOC lower limb.

Coherent Response of Antarctic Intermediate Water and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation During the Last Deglaciation: Reconciling Contrasting Neodymium Isotope Reconstructions From the Tropical Atlantic

AbstractAntarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) plays important roles in the global climate system and the global ocean nutrient and carbon cycles. However, it is unclear how AAIW responds to global climate changes. In particular, neodymium isotopic composition (εNd) reconstructions from different locations from the tropical Atlantic have led to a debate on the relationship between northward penetration of AAIW into the tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability during the last deglaciation. We resolve this controversy by studying the transient oceanic evolution during the last deglaciation using a neodymium‐enabled ocean model. Our results suggest a coherent response of AAIW and AMOC: when AMOC weakens, the northward penetration and transport of AAIW decrease while its depth and thickness increase. Our study highlights that as part of the return flow of the North Atlantic Deep Water, the northward penetration of AAIW in the Atlantic is determined predominately by AMOC intensity. Moreover, the inconsistency among different tropical Atlantic εNd reconstructions is reconciled by considering their corresponding core locations and depths, which were influenced by different water masses in the past. The very radiogenic water from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, which was previously overlooked in the interpretations of deglacial εNd variability, can be transported to shallow layers during active AMOC and modulates εNd in the tropical Atlantic. Changes in the AAIW core depth must also be considered. Thus, interpretation of εNd reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic is more complicated than suggested in previous studies.

Continental climate gradients in North America and Western Eurasia before and after the closure of the Central American Seaway

The Gulf Stream, as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is known as a major driver of latitudinal energy transport in the North Atlantic presently causing mild winters over northwestern Eurasia. The intensity of the AMOC throughout the Neogene, prior to the final closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) in the early Pliocene, is still poorly known, but most authors assume that the circulation was considerably weaker than present. Here we address this issue from a continental point of view. We studied the past AMOC intensity by analyzing Neogene continental climate patterns along North American and Western Eurasian transects. Based on a total of 317 palaeofloras thermal latitudinal gradients are reconstructed for three Neogene time slices, namely the middle Miocene, late Miocene, and late Pliocene using the Coexistence Approach to obtain quantitative climate data. The obtained proxy-based, continental temperature gradients are evaluated against data from a selection of published General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations for the three time slices studied.Our study suggests that shallow thermal latitudinal gradients existed in North America and Western Eurasia throughout the Miocene but became strongly steepened in the late Pliocene. In both Miocene time slices studied, the higher latitudes were by up to 30 °C warmer than present (cold month mean), also at times with presumed pre-industrial CO2 such as the late Miocene. In the late Pliocene high-latitude, the temperature difference with respect to the present had decreased by up to 10 °C (cold month mean). Both mean annual temperatures and cold month means of the lower mid and low latitudes were at the present-day level throughout all three time slices, or even slightly below. In both Miocene time slices, zonal temperature means at both continental transects were similar in the mid and higher latitudes. However, several northwest European sites reveal very mild winter condition suggesting the early existence of a probably less intense Palaeo-Gulf Stream. The distinct thermal anomaly (annual and cold month means) today existing between North America and Western Eurasia appeared for the first time in the late Pliocene, attaining about 50% of the present-day magnitude. This supports the assumption that the AMOC intensified after the final closure of the CAS during the early Pliocene. The results obtained from the palaeobotanical proxies are in line with data from coeval marine archives, particularly with North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) inferred from oxygen isotopes. However, the proxy-based thermal gradients are not well reproduced by a selection of GCM simulations, due to a well-known systematic underestimation of high latitude warming by GCMs for the Miocene and Pliocene time slices.

Mechanisms Determining the Winter Atmospheric Response to the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Abstract In climate models, an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) precedes a warming in the North Atlantic subpolar basin by a few years. In the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, this warming may explain the atmospheric response to the AMOC observed in winter, which resembles a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). To firmly establish the causality links between the ocean and the atmosphere and illustrate the underlying mechanisms in this model, ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations are conducted, prescribing the SST and sea ice anomalies that follow an AMOC intensification. In late winter, the North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies drive atmospheric circulation anomalies similar to those found in the coupled model. Simulations only driven by the SST anomalies related to the AMOC show that the largest oceanic influence is due to the warm subpolar SST anomaly, which enhances the oceanic heat release and decreases the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity in the region of maximum eddy growth, resulting in a weaker meridional eddy heat flux in the atmosphere. The transient eddy feedback leads to a negative NAO-like response. An AMOC intensification is also followed by less sea ice over the Labrador Sea and more sea ice over the Nordic seas. The simulations with full boundary forcing suggest that such anomalies act to strengthen both the poleward momentum flux and the upward heat flux into the polar stratosphere and lead to a stratospheric warming, which then reinforces the negative NAO signal in late winter.

North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958–2007 period from twenty global ocean – sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958–2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Wintertime Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic Ocean Circulation Variability in a Climate Model

Abstract Maximum covariance analysis of a preindustrial control simulation of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), shows that a barotropic signal in winter broadly resembling a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) follows an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by about 7 yr. The delay is due to the cyclonic propagation along the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the subpolar gyre of a SST warming linked to a northward shift and intensification of the NAC, together with an increasing SST cooling linked to increasing southward advection of subpolar water along the western boundary and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream (GS). These changes result in a meridional SST dipole, which follows the AMOC intensification after 6 or 7 yr. The SST changes were initiated by the strengthening of the western subpolar gyre and by bottom torque at the crossover of the deep branches of the AMOC with the NAC on the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the GS near the Tail of the Grand Banks, respectively. The heat flux damping of the SST dipole shifts the region of maximum atmospheric transient eddy growth southward, leading to a negative NAO-like response. No significant atmospheric response is found to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), which is broadly realistic but shifted south and associated with a much weaker meridional SST gradient than the AMOC fingerprint. Nonetheless, the wintertime atmospheric response to the AMOC shows some similarity with the observed response to the AMO, suggesting that the ocean–atmosphere interactions are broadly realistic in CCSM4.

Theoretical Investigation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

AbstractA weakly damped mode of variability, corresponding to the oceanic signature of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) was found through the linear stability analysis of a realistic ocean general circulation model. A simple two-level model was proposed to rationalize both its period and damping rate. This model is extended here to three levels to investigate how the mode can draw energy from the mean flow, as found in various ocean and coupled models. A linear stability analysis in this three-level model shows that the positive growth rate of the oscillatory mode depends on the zonally averaged isopycnal slope. This mode corresponds to a westward propagation of density anomalies in the pycnocline, typical of large-scale baroclinic Rossby waves. The most unstable mode corresponds to the largest scale one (at least for low isopycnal slope). The mode can be described in four phases composing a full oscillation cycle: 1) basin-scale warming of the North Atlantic (AMO positive phase), 2) decrease in upper-ocean poleward transport [hence a reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)], 3) basin-scale cooling (negative AMO), and 4) AMOC intensification. A criterion is developed to test, in oceanic datasets or numerical models, whether this multidecadal oscillation is an unstable oceanic internal mode of variability or if it is stable and externally forced. Consistent with the classical theory of baroclinic instability, this criterion depends on the vertical structure of the mode. If the upper pycnocline signature is in advance of the deeper pycnocline signature with respect to the westward propagation, the mode is unstable and could be described as an oceanic internal mode of variability.