Atlantic Council Research Articles

Russia-Ukraine War and Implications of Finland’s Membership of NATO

This study examines how the war between Russia and Ukraine has tilted Finland into the orbit of NATO. Therefore, the research approach is a qualitative systematic literature review, and it examines scholarly papers, foreign policy reports, and websites like Carnegie Europe and the Atlantic Council that deal with international relations. In addition, the study examines what this milestone poses for East-West relations within the international system going-forward. The study as a concluding remark indicated that the war between Russia and Ukraine has significant geo-political ramifications which are discussed in this study. Likewise, Ukraine's struggles on the battlefields are still raging, while neighbouring nations like Finland and Sweden have sought stronger ties with both of them making connections with NATO for increased security in response to the crisis. Similarly, the defection of Finland into the NATO alliance is of consequential impact on global dynamics. As a result, insightful information on the changing dynamics of the area and the difficulties of post-conflict international cooperation and security are gleaned from the comprehensive literature research.

Bitwa o Tajwan, czyli jak mogłaby wyglądać chińska inwazja na „zbuntowaną prowincję”

The battle of Taiwan, or what a Chinese invasion of a „rogue province” could look like This article describes the possible course of the battle of Taiwan. The paper presents the Chinese policy towards Taiwan, conclusions drawn from the war games conducted by the Pentagon, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and civilian think tanks, the military potential of both sides, and the battle scenario. During the actual research, studies and articles published in Forbes, Business Insider, Taiwan News, Lowy Institute, War on the Rocks, NBC News, China Power, Military Times, Reuters, and Daily Guardian, along with reports of think tanks such as the Atlantic Council and RAND, reports of the US Congress, and reports of Military Ballance were used. The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia, a book written by Ian Easton, turned out to be a particularly useful source of knowledge. According to the author of this article, a „forceful solution” for the Taiwanese issue by Beijing is possible in the future and the Western world should seriously analyze its possible course. This is evidenced by numerous statements of Chinese politicians, the desire to change the current global balance of power, the continuous growth of China’s economic power, the expansion of the PLA’s power projection capabilities in terms of an invasion of the „rogue province”, and regular war games and violations of the Taiwanese air defense identification zone. If there was a battle of Taiwan, from the point of view of the People’s Republic of China, it would be crucial to isolate the island, to quickly eliminate the enemy’s anti‑aircraft and anti‑missile defenses by means of missile and cyberattacks, to paralyze the command system, to gain air superiority, and then to land on the beaches from which operations would be then carried out inland. From the point of view of the Taiwan Armed Forces, the most important thing would be to survive the first days of massive air and missile attacks, to disperse their forces, and then to attack the enemy by exploring its weaknesses, i.e., shooting down selected planes and helicopters, sinking ships in the Taiwan Strait, interrupting supply lines, and then inflicting as much damage as possible during the ground combat.

The Armed Conflict in Ukraine: Use of Force, Prosecution, and Complicity

In the early hours of Thursday, 24 February 2022, President Vladimir Putin addressed the Russian people and declared to the world that Russia has decided to commence a “special military operation” against Ukraine. Shortly afterwards, the Russian military entered Ukrainian territory from many parts of the country. The conflict has resulted in heavy casualties, especially within the Ukrainians. The international community has condemned the invasion, stating that it violates Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and it’s contrary to the principles embodied in the Charter of the United Nations (UN Charter). The North Atlantic Council has also identified the attack as “a grave violation of international law, including the UN Charter.
 In the wake of protests sounded by the international community, Russia has continued to oppose such arguments. As a preliminary analysis, it is evident that Russia’s actions against Ukraine consist of elements of force. Rather than denying the allegations, Russia has justified its use of force by referring to principles of international law. This paper examines a brief background of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Russia’s and Ukraine’s justifications in the war, the possible prosecution of high-ranking Russian officials in potential fora’s, and also Belarus’ involvement in the conflict. While this paper finds that Russia’s justifications for their invasion are unlawful and invokes their responsibility, there are obstacles in prosecuting the crimes. It also considers that Belarus is responsible for their involvement.

What Senior U.S. Leaders Say We Should Know About Cyber

On April 6, 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative hosted a panel discussion on the new National Cybersecurity Strategy. The panel featured four senior officials from the Office of the National Cyber Director (ONCD), the Department of State (DoS), the Department of Justice (DoJ), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The author attended and asked each official to identify the most important elements that policymakers and strategists must understand about cyber. This article highlights historical and recent struggles to express cyber policy, the responses from these officials, and the author’s ongoing research to improve national security cyber policy.

Ally Shoring: A New Tool of Economic Statecraft

This article is derived from an Atlantic Council report, “A Democratic Trade Partnership: Ally Shoring to Counter Coercion and Secure Supply Chains,” published June 1, 2022.1

THE SOURCES AND DYNAMICS OF TURKEY’S ANTAGONISM TOWARDS THE EURO-ATLANTIC ASPIRATIONS OF SWEDEN AND FINLAND

Since 1949, NATO’s membership has increased from 12 to 31 countries through nine rounds of enlargement. Allegedly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization door remains open to any European country in a position to undertake the commitments and obligations of membership, and contribute to security in the Euro-Atlantic area. Yet, any decision to invite a country to join the bloc is taken by the North Atlantic Council on the basis of consensus among all Allies. This dichotomy has attracted particular attention following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which ‘encouraged’ historically non-aligned Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership. Apparently, the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of both Nordic countries have immediately encountered strong Turkey’s antagonism. While Finland is now a NATO Ally as of 4 April 2023, Sweden has got merely an official Invitee status. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has highlighted that NATO’s priority is for Sweden’s accession to be completed as soon as possible as well. Although President Erdogan submitted Sweden’s accession protocol to the Turkish parliament for ratification in October 2023, there is an ongoing discussion on the reasons why the process has been held up by official Ankara. This article aims at exploring the genuine motives behind Turkey’s reluctance to clear the way for the country to become part of the Western military-political bloc. It argues that self-positioning of Turkey as a non-conventional NATO Ally pursuing an autonomous policy, trying to have its own national security concerns better accommodated by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has been a critical factor.

Justin Sherman: Cyber Defense across the Ocean Floor. The Geopolitics of Submarine Cable Security. Washington, DC: Atlantic Council, September 2021

Article Justin Sherman: Cyber Defense across the Ocean Floor. The Geopolitics of Submarine Cable Security. Washington, DC: Atlantic Council, September 2021 was published on June 1, 2022 in the journal SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen (volume 6, issue 2).

Giulia Neaher/David A. Bray/Julian Mueller-Kaler/Benjamin Schatz: Standardizing the Future. How Can the United States Navigate the Geopolitics of International Technology Standards? Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, Oktober 2021

Article Giulia Neaher/David A. Bray/Julian Mueller-Kaler/Benjamin Schatz: Standardizing the Future. How Can the United States Navigate the Geopolitics of International Technology Standards? Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, Oktober 2021 was published on June 1, 2022 in the journal SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen (volume 6, issue 2).

Политика по отношению к России: дебаты в американском экспертном сообществе осенью 2020 года

Introduction. Contemporary Russian-U.S. relations have reached freezing point, but expert community continues to analyze possibilities and produce recommendations for the Russian policy of the incoming administration. The study of the debate is important not only for the political and diplomatic purposes but also for better understanding of the mechanisms shaping Russia’s image in the United States. Methods and materials. The article provides an analysis of the exchange of expert opinions published in the USA in August – November of 2020, including five open letters published on Politico web site, report of the Atlantic Council and several articles addressing similar themes on the pages of American periodicals. Analysis. Texts of the letters are analyses for their argument and recommendations and compared between each other. The author underlines the difference between the groups of the signatories, depending on their relative experience in working in and on Russia or in the Eastern Europe and suggests correction to the Tsvetan Todorov’ approach to the understanding of links between knowledge about and practice towards the “Other”. Results. The author notes the existence of the centuries-old legacies of the American approaches to Russia: similar descriptions of Russia persist from the late 19th century to 2020. He also highlights an absence of a Russian position in the debate, while positions of Eastern Europeans and Ukrainians were provided by separate letters.

Adapting to New Security Realities in a Climate-Disrupted World

On November 26, 2021, Ms. Carol Dumaine, Nonresident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council, presented Adapting to New Security Realities in a Climate-Disrupted World at the 2021 CASIS West Coast Security Conference. The primary concepts of Ms. Dumaine’s presentation centered on how climate change and the global pandemic are becoming significant issues of national security, and how it is vital that our concept of national security be reframed to understand and address climate change as a security issue. The presentation was followed by a question and answer period and a breakout room session with questions from the audience and CASIS Vancouver executives.

The impact of digital currencies on economy of any country

The market for digital currencies is worth about $2 trillion, and there are over 15,000 different kinds of them. Toward the end of the year 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to legalise Bitcoin. Central banks are catching up with private digital currencies. One of the first jurisdictions to formally debut central bank digital currencies will be Nigeria, which will join the Bahamas, Eastern Caribbean States, and Cambodia in October 2021. (CBDCs). Fourteen nations have started pilot programmes, 16 countries are establishing CBDCs, and 41 are undertaking research on the subject, according to the Atlantic Council's CBDC tracker.Furthermore, the digitalization of trade must go hand in hand with advances in payment technology. The benefits of digital currencies will be restricted if we continue to rely heavily on paper papers and do not have legal backing for electronic documents or e-signature. Focus on developing the necessary physical and legal infrastructures for the future of commerce is essential.

Kathleen McInnis/Connor McPartland: Falling in: The Deterrent Value of Host Nation Support in the Baltic Sea Region. Washington, DC: The Atlantic Council, Mai 2021

Article Kathleen McInnis/Connor McPartland: Falling in: The Deterrent Value of Host Nation Support in the Baltic Sea Region. Washington, DC: The Atlantic Council, Mai 2021 was published on December 1, 2021 in the journal SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen (volume 5, issue 4).

Legal principles of international cooperation between Ukraine and the North Atlantic alliance

The article analyzes the legal principles of Ukraine’s international cooperation with NATO and the European Union.The Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of 1993 «Main Directions of Ukraine’s Foreign Policy» was one of the first documents that established the basic principles of Ukraine’s foreign policy towards the Alliance. The defining feature of the foreign policy is the establishment of partnership relations with Western countries, mutually beneficial cooperation, participation in the North Atlantic Cooperation Council and the North Atlantic Assembly.The Partnership for Peace Framework Document stipulates that the signatory state will develop an individual partnership program. Participation in the Program involves cooperation with NATO in the military, military-techni-cal, military-political spheres, in the field of science, ecology, defense economy, etc.On 14 September 1995, the NATO-Ukraine North Atlantic Council approved an Individual Partnership Program, marking the beginning of an “expanded and deepened” relationship.The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of Ukraine and NATO on the estab-lishment of a NATO Information and Documentation Center in Ukraine with the aim of disseminating the informa-tion about NATO was of great importance.The decisive factor was the adoption the Charter on a Special Partnership between NATO and Ukraine, a basic political document, on July 9, 1997.The subsequent legal regulations laid the grounds for a stable relationship between Ukraine, NATO and European Union member states. These are, in particular: the NATO-Ukraine Action Plan, the Law of Ukraine “On Fundamentals of National Security of Ukraine”, “Military Doctrine of Ukraine”, Laws of Ukraine “On Amendments to Certain Laws of Ukraine on Ukraine’s Refusal to Implement a Non-Aligned Policy”, “On Amendments to Some Laws of Ukraine on the Foreign Policy of Ukraine” and “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine (on the strategic course of the state to gain full membership of Ukraine in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization)”.Thus, the political and legal measures to form the foundation for significant rapprochement with NATO and the European Union are implemented.

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE WESTERN BALKANS AND STRENGTHENING THE NATO’S EASTERN FLANK

A reflection process shall be launched to see if the NATO is ready to face the challenges of tomorrow. The main aim of this paper will be to outline what are the perspectives and challenges according to the Balkan countries and what is the role of NATO in the Eastern Flank. Collecting of views from the region will give some ideas and propositions how to make the Alliance stronger and more effective politically and militarily.
 The western Balkans is one of the longest lasting and largest investments that NATO has made throughout time. The Western Balkans is the most articulate because of the complexity of the region. As the WB is so articulate and complex and the relationships since the 1990s between NATO and the region of the WB have evolved. The three main pillars of the NATO strategic concept are deterrence and defence crisis management and cooperative security. Now we have two new NATO tools that are helping the region - capacity building to the civil military team (NATO advisory team which support the set up of security force in Kosovo) and enhanced interaction which is a basket of tailored activities (it is not a partnership because there are some of the Allies that do not the declaration of independence of Kosovo) that have been revised by the North Atlantic Council- building integrity and civil emergency planning. The common point between all the countries of the WB which have joined the partnership of peace is the contribution that they give to the security and stability of the region and to this idea of projecting stability. When NATO’s neighbours are stable the Alliance itself will be more stable. The open door policy a cornerstone of the Washington treaty– for many countries of the WB it is a cornerstone for becoming members and to assume the responsibilities and the obligations (and the willingness and ability to assume them) that come with this membership. Political dialogue and practical cooperation are crucial for the countries especially from the region of the Western Balkans to foster the regional understanding and to share common expertise. Speaking about the Geopolitics in the Balkans and in South Eastern Europe, my first point is about the current geopolitical dynamics. SE Europe and even The Balkans are not anymore in the centre of world politics in the role of the trouble maker in the region, like it was in the late 90s of the last and in the beginning of this century. But they continue to be a field for political manoeuvring of the geopolitical players dominated by the desire to confer spheres of interest and to mutually deter each other. We shall not forget that precisely democracy is the element that binds all members and the liberal economic principles are the cornerstone of this common identity. A more equitable burden sharing and ascending defense spending (2% or less currently) is an important benchmark for the future preparedness of the Alliance. The transatlantic relation was a point discussed largely in reflection process. A future goal for the Alliance shall be defining a mutually beneficial strategic and burden sharing equilibrium between North American and European members. An advance in the foreign and security policy objectives of Washington in Asia will be a good addition to this. What can be more is that NATO must continue to deepen and strengthen the already existing relationship. This mainly can be conducted through expanding its roster of partnerships, gaining actionable intelligence, strengthening early warning systems and improving crisis management to be nimbler politically and operationally.
 B9 Alliances members need to leave their operational comfort zones and look to further their contributions in zones of instability in Africa and Middle East that could spill over to Europe.

Archives and the Atlantic Pact: how the NATO Archives preserves and protects the records of an Alliance

In 2019, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) celebrated 70 years of consultation, consensus and conflict prevention. The same year also marked 20 years since NATO first opened access to its archives to the public. The establishment of the NATO Archives in 1999 was hailed by then Secretary General Javier Solana as an important signal of the Alliance’s commitment to transparency and openness. NATO declassified and publicly disclosed thousands of documents and opened a dedicated Reading Room at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. Behind the scenes, the establishment of the NATO Archives and of the Archives Committee also changed the way in which NATO managed its historical records. Up to this point, there was no NATO-wide policy on archives, no organizational archives and no consistency in any of the traditional archival functions. Starting in 1999, NATO could boast a professional archives programme, implemented by trained archivists and governed by a committee of national experts. The programme can claim a string of successes over the last 20 years, implementing archival strategy in novel and unique ways to respond to NATO’s organizational structure. While the Archives are part of NATO’s political headquarters, NATO itself is composed of multiple formal entities under the overall direction of the North Atlantic Council and the Military Committee, including military commands, civilian agencies, military operations etc. Before 1999, each managed their archival material locally, according to internal procedures. This article outlines the Archives’ strategic policies and its governance, involving national experts of all its 30 member nations; presents its increasingly larger and more robust acquisition programme based on a strong and actively managed retention and disposition strategy; assesses its digital preservation activities; and provides an update on NATO’s declassification and public disclosure programme.

Daniel Fried: US sanctions policy: Lessons learned and recommendations for the new administration. Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, November 2020

Article Daniel Fried: US sanctions policy: Lessons learned and recommendations for the new administration. Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, November 2020 was published on June 1, 2021 in the journal SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen (volume 5, issue 2).

Matthew Kroenig/Jeffrey Cimmino (Lead Authors): Global Strategy 2021: An Allied Strategy for China. Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, Februar 2021

Article Matthew Kroenig/Jeffrey Cimmino (Lead Authors): Global Strategy 2021: An Allied Strategy for China. Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, Februar 2021 was published on June 1, 2021 in the journal SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen (volume 5, issue 2).

Does meaning matter? Nietzsche, Jung and implications for global leadership

The Global Risks 2035 Update by the Atlantic Council, despite its clinical focus on economic, environmental and security challenges, nevertheless suggests that shared global meaning might have a role to play in enabling humanity to set off on a more beneficial trend for its foreseeable global future. The realisation that the complex challenges facing humanity is existential as much as it is pragmatic necessitates trans-disciplinary engagement and collaborative research ventures. This article contributed a trans-disciplinary reflection by bringing philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche and psychologist-philosopher Carl Jung in dialogue with critical leadership studies within the broader framework of the science–religion dialogue of this special volume. Pointing to the awareness in leadership studies of how meaning, narrative and shared vision enable greater effectiveness and collaboration, we explore nihilism as cultural problem to be addressed in order to create meaning that fosters global collaborative action. From the viewpoint of the Global Risk 2035 Update and its gloomy strategic foresight of a newly bipolarised world or further descent into chaos, the article brought Nietzsche’s idea of the Last Man into dialogue with Carl Jung’s emphasis on the need for a collective myth to reverse the decline of civilisation and enable humanity to chart a course towards unprecedented global collaboration. Contribution: The article contributes from a transdisciplinary perspective to the question of meaning in leadership. Drawing from the contributions of Nietzsche and Jung, it argues that shared myth and shared meaning is vital to address the complex global challenges that leadership is called to address. This philosophical reflection on the crisis of nihilism contributes to the growing awareness in critical leadership studies that meaning-making is critical to effective leadership.

Erich C. Frandrup: Embracing Underseas Robots: A US Strategy to Maintain Undersea Superiority in an Age of Unmanned Systems. Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, November 2020

Article Erich C. Frandrup: Embracing Underseas Robots: A US Strategy to Maintain Undersea Superiority in an Age of Unmanned Systems. Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, November 2020 was published on April 1, 2021 in the journal SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen (volume 5, issue 1).

Tate Nurkin: The Five Revolutions: Examining defense innovation in the Indo-Pacific Region. Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, 30. November 2020

Article Tate Nurkin: The Five Revolutions: Examining defense innovation in the Indo-Pacific Region. Washington, D.C.: The Atlantic Council, 30. November 2020 was published on April 1, 2021 in the journal SIRIUS – Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen (volume 5, issue 1).