Atlantic Circulation Research Articles

Impacts of Parameterizing Estuary Mixing on the Large-Scale Circulations in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract Riverine outflow between the land surface/cryosphere and the ocean undergoes intricate physical and biogeochemical transformations in estuaries before it finally merges with oceanic waters. To enhance our understanding of these transformations, estuary box models (EBMs) are being incorporated into comprehensive Earth system models. These models aim to refine our knowledge of both physical and biogeochemical processes. In our study, we conducted simulations using the Community Earth System Model, version 2, both with and without the inclusion of an EBM that was jointly developed by the University of Connecticut and the National Center for Atmospheric Research and by default included in the climate model. The objective was to examine the influence of these modifications on global climate patterns. We performed these simulations under fixed atmospheric and runoff conditions, using a standalone version of the ocean/sea ice components of the model. Additionally, we conducted a fully coupled Earth system model simulation at a 2° atmosphere and 1° ocean resolution. The implementation of the EBM into the ocean component of the model resulted in regional variations and noticeable improvements in the salinity distribution on the Siberian shelves and at the Amazon outflow. Interestingly, our findings revealed that the tropical Atlantic Ocean plays a significant role in controlling the global salinity distribution. Due to the tropical Atlantic circulation, which redirects thermocline water southward while allowing surface waters to continue northward, the improved vertical mixing in the EBM leads to an accumulation of salt in the North Atlantic and a freshening of other ocean basins. This shift subsequently results in an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a northward shift of tropical precipitation patterns. Significance Statement This research investigates the impact of riverine outflow interactions with ocean waters on global climate dynamics. Implementing an enhanced representation of river runoff within a global climate model reveals that the tropical Atlantic region is pivotal in regulating the salinity distribution across the world’s oceans. This dynamic leads to an increased salt concentration in the North Atlantic and extends its influence to other ocean basins. The resulting shifts in salinity have profound consequences, as they alter rainfall patterns in the tropics. The insights gained from this study contribute to the advancement of climate projections, offering society a valuable tool to anticipate and adapt to the impending effects of climate change more effectively.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline: Tipping Small Scales under Global Warming.

The Atlantic circulation is a key component of the global ocean conveyor that transports heat and nutrients worldwide. Its likely weakening due to global warming has implications for climate and ecology. However, the expected changes remain largely uncertain as low-resolution climate models currently in use do not resolve small scales. Although the large-scale circulation tends to weaken uniformly in both the low-resolution and our high-resolution climate model version, we find that the small-scale circulation in the North Atlantic changes abruptly under global warming and exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Furthermore, the future Atlantic Ocean circulation in the high-resolution model version expands in conjunction with a sea ice retreat and strengthening toward the Arctic. Finally, the cutting-edge climate model indicates sensitive shifts in the eddies and circulation on regional scales for future warming and thus provides a benchmark for next-generation climate models that can get rid of parametrizations of unresolved scales.

Observed change and the extent of coherence in the Gulf Stream system

Abstract. By transporting warm and salty water poleward, the Gulf Stream system maintains a mild climate in northwestern Europe while also facilitating the dense water formation that feeds the deep ocean. The sensitivity of North Atlantic circulation to future greenhouse gas emissions seen in climate models has prompted an increasing effort to monitor the various ocean circulation components in recent decades. Here, we synthesize available ocean transport measurements from several observational programs in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, as well as an ocean state estimate (ECCOv4-r4), for an enhanced understanding of the Gulf Stream and its poleward extensions as an interconnected circulation system. We see limited coherent variability between the records on interannual timescales, highlighting the local oceanic response to atmospheric circulation patterns and variable recirculation timescales within the gyres. On decadal timescales, we find a weakening subtropical circulation between the mid-2000s and mid-2010s, while the inflow and circulation in the Nordic Seas remained stable. Differing decadal trends in the subtropics, subpolar North Atlantic, and Nordic Seas warrant caution in using observational records at a single latitude to infer large-scale circulation change.

Research on the change of the storage volume of the Nordic Seas Overflows over the last 40 years

The Nordic Sea overflow, being a significant driver of the thermohaline circulation, exerts a substantial influence on environmental dynamics in the Arctic and globally. A better understanding about the trend of the storage volume of the Nordic Seas Overflows is of paramount importance to a realistic assessment of the North Atlantic circulation and variability. EN4.2.2 reanalysis data were utilized to acquire the monthly average time series of overflow water storage volume in the Nordic Sea from 1950 to 2022. The storage volume demonstrates seasonal variations, with fluctuations of approximately 10% around the average. Over the period from 1980 to 2022, the average volume per decade exhibited a consistent decrease. Linear fitting of the annual average data estimated the overall relative change trend in the last 43 years to be -7.2 ± 2.6%. However, the quality of the EN4.2.2 data brings the average error of about 12% in the calculation of the overflow storage volume, which implies that the downward trend requires further validation. From a spatial standpoint, the Norwegian Sea, particularly the Lofoten Basin, is the primary region where overflow water storage volume in the Nordic seas have decreased. This decrease corresponds to an increase in ocean temperatures within the upper layer (0-600m) of both the Lofoten Basin and the Norwegian Basin. The warming of these regions has directly impacted the overflow water storage volume, leading to its reduction. It is noteworthy that the ocean temperature rise in the upper layer is more influenced by the Atlantic inflow rather than air-sea flux, particularly in the Norwegian Basin. This is attributed to the substantial increase in SST in the North Atlantic, which aligns with the warm current regions in the Atlantic Ocean, and the lack of statistical significance in linear trend of the air-sea heat flux. Furthermore, there has been a more rapid reduction in the overflow storage volume in the Norwegian Sea from 2011 to 2022. Specifically, the annual average overflow volume from 2018 to 2022 dropped below the previous lowest value. Concurrently, the salinity of the upper Norwegian Sea and the Atlantic inflow decreased considerably, while there has been no significant change in ocean temperature. Therefore, this short-term fluctuation is predominantly attributed to the decrease in Atlantic inflow salinity. Interestingly, the decrease in overflow water volume in the Nordic Seas does not follow a linear pattern in relation to increasing ocean temperature; instead, it exhibits an accelerating trend. If the ocean temperature rises by 1°C, the overflow water volume in the Nordic Seas will decrease to 86% of the total volume. Overall, the overflow water storage in the Norwegian Sea undergoes complex interannual variations and is notably influenced by the influx from the Atlantic Ocean.

Uncertainty in the evolution of northwestern North Atlantic circulation leads to diverging biogeochemical projections

Abstract. The global ocean's coastal areas are rapidly experiencing the effects of climate change. These regions are highly dynamic, with relatively small-scale circulation features like shelf break currents playing an important role. Projections can produce widely diverging estimates of future regional circulation structures. Here, we use the northwestern North Atlantic, a hotspot of ocean warming, as a case study to illustrate how the uncertainty in future estimates of regional circulation manifests itself and affects projections of shelf-wide biogeochemistry. Two diverging climate model projections are considered and downscaled using a high-resolution regional model with intermediate biogeochemical complexity. The two resulting future scenarios exhibit qualitatively different circulation structures by 2075 where along-shelf volume transport is reduced by 70 % in one of them and while remaining largely unchanged in the other. The reduction in along-shelf transport creates localized areas with either amplified warming (+3 ∘C) and salinification (+0.25 units) or increased acidification (−0.25 units) in shelf bottom waters. Our results suggest that a wide range of outcomes is possible for continental margins and suggest a need for accurate projections of small-scale circulation features like shelf break currents in order to improve the reliability of biogeochemical projections.

Daily concentration of snowfalls in the mountains of the Iberian Peninsula

AbstractThe temporal concentration of snowfalls has direct implications on the management of water resources as well as on the economic activity of mountain areas, conditioning, for example, the seasonal performance of ski resorts. This work uses the daily concentration index (CI) for analysing the frequency concentration of snowfalls in the Iberian Peninsula Mountain ranges. First, we provide a spatiotemporal analysis of the CI patterns and trends for the 1980–2014 period. Subsequently, we determine the atmospheric circulation patterns that control the CI variability. In addition, we determine the geographical and low‐frequency climate modes that control the CI for this mid‐latitude area. In addition, we have estimated the partial dependence relationship between the CI and several geographical factors by fitting a multiple linear regression. The results from these analyses show that elevation as well as the distance from the Atlantic are the main geographical pattern that controls the CI in the Iberian Peninsula Mountain ranges. These geographical factors also reflect the role of the main atmospheric circulation patterns in the Iberian Peninsula in controlling the spatial dynamics of the CI. The Cantabrian, Iberian, and northern slopes of the Pyrenees show the lowest CI due to their exposition to northern and Atlantic circulation weather types. On the contrary, the highest CI values are found in the southern and eastern slopes of the Pyrenees, eastern slopes of Sierra Nevada, and southern slopes of the Central system. Trend analysis shows a slight increase of CI in the Central system and in the western Sierra Nevada. However, eastern Sierra Nevada, Cantabrian, Central, and Iberian show a downward CI trend. CI is principally driven by the East‐Atlantic/Western Russia pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Cantabrian, Iberian, and northern slopes of the Central range. The CI values in the Pyrenees show a different relationship with the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) depending on whether it is the southern or the northern slope. In addition, the positive phase of the NAO oscillation controls the higher values of CI for the whole Pyrenees, especially in the mid‐south part. Finally, in Sierra Nevada the CI dynamics are controlled mostly by the WeMO.

A Bayesian Approach to Atmospheric Circulation Regime Assignment

Abstract The standard approach when studying atmospheric circulation regimes and their dynamics is to use a hard regime assignment, where each atmospheric state is assigned to the regime it is closest to in distance. However, this may not always be the most appropriate approach as the regime assignment may be affected by small deviations in the distance to the regimes due to noise. To mitigate this we develop a sequential probabilistic regime assignment using Bayes’s theorem, which can be applied to previously defined regimes and implemented in real time as new data become available. Bayes’s theorem tells us that the probability of being in a regime given the data can be determined by combining climatological likelihood with prior information. The regime probabilities at time t can be used to inform the prior probabilities at time t + 1, which are then used to sequentially update the regime probabilities. We apply this approach to both reanalysis data and a seasonal hindcast ensemble incorporating knowledge of the transition probabilities between regimes. Furthermore, making use of the signal present within the ensemble to better inform the prior probabilities allows for identifying more pronounced interannual variability. The signal within the interannual variability of wintertime North Atlantic circulation regimes is assessed using both a categorical and regression approach, with the strongest signals found during very strong El Niño years. Significance Statement Atmospheric circulation regimes are recurrent and persistent patterns that characterize the atmospheric circulation on time scales of 1–3 weeks. They are relevant for predictability on these time scales as mediators of weather. In this study we propose a novel approach to assigning atmospheric states to six predefined wintertime circulation regimes over the North Atlantic and Europe, which can be applied in real time. This approach introduces a probabilistic, instead of deterministic, regime assignment and uses prior knowledge on the regime dynamics. It allows us to better identify the regime persistence and indicates when a state does not clearly belong to one regime. Making use of an ensemble of model simulations, we can identify more pronounced interannual variability by using the full ensemble to inform prior knowledge on the regimes.

Caribbean salinity anomalies contributed to variable North Atlantic circulation and climate during the Common Era.

Paleoceanographic reconstructions show that the strength of North Atlantic currents decreased during the Little Ice Age. In contrast, the role of ocean circulation in climate regulation during earlier historical epochs of the Common Era (C.E.) remains unclear. Here, we reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the Caribbean Basin for the past 1700 years using the isotopic and elemental composition of planktic foraminifera tests. Centennial-scale SST and salinity variations in the Caribbean co-occur with (hydro)climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere and are linked to a North Atlantic SST forcing. Cold phases around 600, 800, and 1400 to 1600 C.E. are characterized by Caribbean salinification and Gulf of Mexico freshening that implies reductions in the strength of North Atlantic surface circulation. We suggest that the associated changes in the meridional salt advection contributed to the historical climate variability of the C.E.

Atmospheric Response to a Collapse of the North Atlantic Circulation under a Mid-Range Future Climate Scenario: A Regime Shift in Northern Hemisphere Dynamics

Abstract Climate models project a future weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but the impacts of this weakening on climate remain highly uncertain. A key challenge in quantifying the impact of an AMOC decline is in isolating its influence on climate, relative to other changes associated with increased greenhouse gases. Here we isolate the climate impacts of a weakened AMOC in the broader context of a warming climate using a unique ensemble of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 integrations that was performed using the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE (E2.1). In these runs internal variability alone results in a spontaneous bifurcation of the ocean flow, wherein 2 out of 10 ensemble members exhibit an entire AMOC collapse, while the other 8 members recover at various stages despite identical forcing of each ensemble member and with no externally prescribed freshwater perturbation. We show that an AMOC collapse results in an abrupt northward shift and strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) Hadley cell (HC) and intensification of the northern midlatitude eddy-driven jet. We then use a set of coupled atmosphere–ocean abrupt CO2 experiments spanning the range 1 times to 5 times CO2 (1x to 5xCO2) to show that this response to an AMOC collapse results in a nonlinear shift in the NH circulation moving from 2xCO2 to 3xCO2. Slab-ocean versions of these experiments, by comparison, do not capture this nonlinear behavior. Our results suggest that changes in ocean heat flux convergences associated with an AMOC collapse—while highly uncertain—can result in profound changes in the NH circulation and continued efforts to constrain the AMOC response to future climate change are needed.

Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits

AbstractThe Gulf Stream is a vital limb of the North Atlantic circulation that influences regional climate, sea level, and hurricane activity. Given the Gulf Stream's relevance to weather and climate, many studies have attempted to estimate trends in its volumetric transport from various data sets, but results have been inconclusive, and no consensus has emerged whether it is weakening with climate change. Here we use Bayesian analysis to jointly assimilate multiple observational data sets from the Florida Straits to quantify uncertainty and change in Gulf Stream volume transport since 1982. We find with virtual certainty (probability P > 99%) that Gulf Stream volume transport through the Florida Straits declined by 1.2 ± 1.0 Sv in the past 40 years (95% credible interval). This significant trend has emerged from the data set only over the past ten years, the first unequivocal evidence for a recent multidecadal decline in this climate‐relevant component of ocean circulation.

Nonlinear Effects of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and ENSO on the North Atlantic Winter Atmospheric Circulation

AbstractPrevious studies have shown that both the stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño‐South Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the North Atlantic winter circulation. Here we use reanalysis and model output data to show that the QBO and ENSO interact to produce a nonlinear effect on the North Atlantic winter circulation. Specifically, during El Niño winters, the QBO teleconnection mainly takes a subtropical pathway with changes in the North Pacific–Atlantic subtropical jet (STJ); during La Niña winters, the QBO connects with the troposphere predominantly through a polar pathway, that is, stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) changes. Further, the QBO‐induced STJ changes in El Niño lead to anomalous Rossby wave propagation toward the North Atlantic, and the QBO‐induced SPV during La Niña anomaly exerts a downward effect on the North Atlantic. Hence, the various interactions between ENSO and QBO teleconnections result in nonlinear, and even synergistic, impacts on the North Atlantic circulation.

Impact of vertical resolution on representing baroclinic modes and water mass distribution in the North Atlantic

In contrast to the large volume of studies on the impact of horizontal resolution in oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), the impact of vertical resolution has been largely overlooked and there is no consensus on how one should construct the vertical grid to represent the vertical structure of the baroclinic modes as well as the distribution of distinct water masses throughout the global ocean. In this paper, we document the importance of vertical resolution in the representations of vertical modes and water masses in the North Atlantic and show i) that vertical resolution is unlikely to undermine the resolution capability of the horizontal grid in representing the vertical modes and a 32-layer isopycnal configuration is adequate to represent the first five baroclinic modes in mid-latitudes and ii) that vertical resolution should focus on representing water masses. A coarse vertical resolution (16-layer) simulation exhibits virtually no transport in the dense overflow water which leads to a weaker and significantly shallower Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) despite resolving the first baroclinic mode throughout the domain, whereas there are overall very small differences in the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic circulation in the simulations with finer vertical resolution (24 to 96 layers). We argue that accurately representing the water masses is more important than representing the baroclinic modes for an OGCM in modeling the low-frequency large-scale circulation.

Deconstructing Future AMOC Decline at 26.5°N

AbstractThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is frequently used to diagnose the state of the North Atlantic circulation, but as an integrated quantity the AMOC strength does not necessarily mirror changes in the individual circulation components. Here, we investigate future circulation changes in the subtropical North Atlantic (26.5°N) in CMIP6 models, diagnosing the relationship between the Gulf Stream, Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), gyre recirculation, and the integrated AMOC response. Under continued high emissions, we find a multi‐model mean Gulf Stream weakening of 29% (11.2 Sv) and a DWBC weakening of 47% (8.5 Sv) by the end of the century. However, 33% (3.7 Sv) of the Gulf Stream weakening is due to changes in wind stress and therefore not simply a compensating effect for reduced high‐latitude water mass transformation and a weaker DWBC. Our findings have implications for how we understand the dynamics of future North Atlantic circulation changes.

Inter-annual sea level change and transgression along a barrier Island coast

On the decadal time scale of coastal planning and management, relative sea-level rise is usually considered a trend or constant rate rather than a dynamic, time varying influence on coastal change. However, the coastal ocean sea level along the east coast of Florida and coastal regions further north is, to a first order, controlled at the interannual and decadal time scale by the dynamics of North Atlantic circulation and Gulf Stream (GS) flow, Every coastal region has its own distinctive annual sea-level cycle, and longer-term intra- and inter-decadal sea-level oscillations. This paper addresses the influence of the strong Florida coastal ocean sea-level signal on topographic evolution of the shoreface, coastal sediment budgets, and potential for coastal transgression at the decadal time scale.

Pacific oceanic front amplifies the impact of Atlantic oceanic front on North Atlantic blocking

Atmospheric blocking is a crucial driver of extreme weather events, but its climatological frequency is largely underestimated in state-of-the-art climate models, especially around the North Atlantic. While air-sea interaction along the North Atlantic oceanic frontal region is known to influence Atlantic blocking activity, remote effects from the Pacific have been less studied. Here we use semi-idealised experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model to demonstrate that the mid-latitude Pacific oceanic front is crucial for climatological Atlantic blocking activity. The front intensifies the Pacific eddy-driven jet that extends eastward towards the North Atlantic. The eastward-extended Pacific jet reinforces the North Atlantic circulation response to the Atlantic oceanic front, including the storm track activity and the eddy-driven jet. The strengthening of the eddy-driven jet reduces the Greenland blocking frequency. Moreover, the Pacific oceanic front greatly strengthens the stationary planetary-scale ridge in Europe. Together with a stronger northeastward extension of the Atlantic storm track, enhanced interaction between extratropical cyclones and the European ridge favours the occurrence of Euro-Atlantic blocking. Therefore, the North Atlantic circulation response amplified remotely by the Pacific oceanic front substantially increases Euro-Atlantic blocking frequency while decreasing Greenland blocking frequency.

Precipitation variability using GPCC data and its relationship with atmospheric teleconnections in Northeast Brazil

The present study investigates the influence of different atmospheric teleconnections on the annual precipitation variability in Northeast Brazil (NEB) based on the annual precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) from 1901 to 2013. The objective of this study is to analyze the influence of different atmospheric teleconnections on the total annual precipitation of NEB for the 1901–2013 period, considering the physical characteristics of four subregions, i.e., Mid-north, Backwoods, Agreste, and Forest zone. To analyze the influence of different atmospheric teleconnections, GPCC data were used, and the behavior of the teleconnections was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficient, Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), and cross-wavelet analysis. The Pearson correlation was used to analyze the influence on the annual precipitation for the studied region. RAI was used to calculate the frequency of atmospheric patterns and drought episodes. The cross-wavelet analysis was applied to identify similarity signals between precipitation series and atmospheric teleconnections. The results of the Pearson correlation assessed according to Student's t test and cross-wavelet analysis showed that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) exerts a more significant influence on the Backwoods region at an interannual scale. In contrast, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) exerts greater control over the modulation of the climatic patterns in NEB. The results of the study are insightful and reveal the differential impacts of teleconnections such as the AMO, PDO, MEI, and NAO on precipitation in the four sub-regions of NEB. The Atlantic circulation patterns strongly influence the interannual and interdecadal precipitation in the Agreste, Backwoods, and Mid-north regions, possibly associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position. Finally, this study contributes to understanding internal climatic variability in NEB and planning of water resources and agricultural activities in such a region.Graphic abstract

Deglacial and Holocene sediment dynamics and provenances off Lancaster Sound: Implications for paleoenvironmental conditions in northern Baffin Bay

Since the last deglaciation, Baffin Bay between Greenland and Canada developed from an isolated marginal sea to a major Arctic-Atlantic throughflow closely linked to the North Atlantic circulation. While the initial steps of gateway openings through Lancaster Sound and Nares Strait to northern Baffin Bay are reasonably well documented, far less is known about related regional deglacial-to-Holocene changes in sediment sources and depositional processes due to a lack of continuous and well-dated paleoenvironmental records from northern Baffin Bay. Sedimentological, mineralogical, and radiogenic isotope data of the well-dated sediment core GeoB22336-4 from the mouth of Lancaster Sound provide new insights on the impacts of ice-sheet retreat and opening of the gateways to the Arctic Ocean on the depositional setting. Basal subglacial till deposits point to a grounded ice stream at the mouth of Lancaster Sound before ∼14.5 ka BP. Subsequent glaciomarine sedimentation is characterized by the input of ice-rafted detritus (IRD), bioturbation traces, and foraminifera shells. Decreasing sediment supply and input of IRD through time reflects a period of ice-sheet recession to predominantly land-terminating positions during the Early Holocene. Changes in radiogenic isotope signatures reveal the openings of Lancaster Sound between ∼10.4 and 9.9 ka BP and of Nares Strait between 8.5 and 8.2 ka BP, in alignment with earlier studies. The rapid mid-Holocene (up to ∼5.8 ka BP) deposition of fine-grained sediments is most likely caused by enhanced sea ice-rafted sediment input released under a strong West Greenland Current influence. Finally, a slight increase in IRD input during the last ∼2 ka BP is linked to the neoglacial re-advance of regional glaciers.

The South Atlantic Circulation Between 34.5°S, 24°S and Above the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge From an Inverse Box Model

AbstractThe South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in the heat exchange of the climate system, as it hosts the returning flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To gain insights on this role, using data from three hydrographic cruises conducted in the South Atlantic Subtropical gyre at 34.5°S, 24°S, and 10°W, we identify water masses and compute absolute geostrophic circulation using inverse modeling. In the upper layers, the currents describe the South Atlantic anticyclonic gyre with the northwest flowing Benguela Current (26.3 ± 2.0 Sv at 34.5°S, and 21.2 ± 1.8 Sv at 24°S) flowing above the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge (MAR) between 22.4°S and 28.4°S (−19.2 ± 1.4 Sv), and the southward flowing Brazil Current (−16.5 ± 1.3 Sv at 34.5°S, and −7.3 ± 0.9 Sv at 24°S); the deep layers feature the southward transports of Deep Western Boundary Current (−13.9 ± 3.0 Sv at 34.5°S, and −8.7 ± 3.8 Sv at 24°S) and Deep Eastern Boundary Current (−15.1 ± 3.5 Sv at 34.5°S, and −16.3 ± 4.7 Sv at 24°S), with the interbasin west‐to‐east flow close to 24°S (7.5 ± 4.4 Sv); the abyssal waters present northward mass transports through the Argentina Basin (5.6 ± 1.1 Sv at 34.5°S, and 5.8 ± 1.5 Sv at 24°S) and Cape Basin (8.6 ± 3.5 Sv at 34.5°S–3.0 ± 0.8 Sv at 24°S) before returning southward (−2.2 ± 0.7 Sv at 24°S to −7.9 ± 3.6 Sv at 34.5°S), without any interbasin exchange across the MAR. In addition, we compute the upper AMOC strength (14.8 ± 1.0 and 17.5 ± 0.9 Sv), the equatorward heat transport (0.30 ± 0.05 and 0.80 ± 0.05 PW), and the freshwater flux (0.18 ± 0.02 and −0.07 ± 0.02 Sv) at 34.5°S and 24°S, respectively.

Eastern Mediterranean water outflow during the Younger Dryas was twice that of the present day

Eastern Mediterranean deep-intermediate convection was highly sensitive to varying inputs of fresh water fluxes associated with increased rainfall during the African Humid period (15-6 kyr Before Present). Here we investigate changes in the water-outflow from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea since the last deglaciation using neodymium isotope ratios. Our results indicate enhanced outflow during the Younger Dryas, two times higher than present-day outflow and about three times higher than during the last Sapropel. We propose that the increased outflow into the western Mediterranean over the Younger Dryas was the result of the combined effect of 1) enhanced climate-driven convection in the Aegean Sea and 2) reduced convection of western deep water during this period. Our results provide solid evidence for an enhanced Younger Dryas westward flow of Eastern Mediterranean sourced waters in consonance with an intensification of Mediterranean water-outflow during a weakened state of the Atlantic circulation.

Multi-proxy constraints on Atlantic circulation dynamics since the last ice age

Uncertainties persist in the understanding of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its response to external perturbations such as freshwater or radiative forcing. Abrupt reduction of the Atlantic circulation is considered a climate tipping point that may have been crossed when Earth’s climate was propelled out of the last ice age. However, the evolution of the circulation since the Last Glacial Maximum (22–18 thousand years ago) remains insufficiently constrained due to model and proxy limitations. Here we leverage information from both a compilation of proxy records that track various aspects of the circulation and climate model simulations to constrain the Atlantic circulation over the past 20,000 years. We find a coherent picture of a shallow and weak Atlantic overturning circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum that reconciles apparently conflicting proxy evidence. Model–data comparison of the last deglaciation—starting from this new, multiple constrained glacial state—indicates a muted response during Heinrich Stadial 1 and that water mass geometry did not fully adjust to the strong reduction in overturning circulation during the comparably short Younger Dryas period. This demonstrates that the relationship between freshwater forcing and Atlantic overturning strength is strongly dependent on the climatic and oceanic background state.