Asymptotic Validity Research Articles

Scheduling jobs sharing multiple resources under uncertainty: A stochastic programming approach

A two-stage stochastic integer program to determine an optimal schedule for jobs requiring multiple classes of resources under uncertain processing times, due dates, resource consumption and availabilities is formulated. Temporary resource capacity expansion for a penalty is allowed. Potential applications of this model include team scheduling problems that arise in service industries such as engineering consulting and operating room scheduling. An exact solution method is developed based on Benders decomposition for problems with a moderate number of scenarios. Benders decomposition is then embedded within a sampling-based solution method for problems with a large number of scenarios. A sequential sampling procedure is modified to allow for approximate solution of integer programs and its asymptotic validity and finite stopping are proved under this modification. The solution methodologies are compared on a set of test problems. Several algorithmic enhancements are added to improve efficiency.

Testing semiparametric conditional moment restrictions using conditional martingale transforms

This paper studies conditional moment restrictions that contain unknown nonparametric functions, and proposes a general method of obtaining asymptotically distribution-free tests via martingale transforms. Examples of such conditional moment restrictions are single index restrictions, partially parametric regressions, and partially parametric quantile regressions. This paper introduces a conditional martingale transform that is conditioned on the variable in the nonparametric function, and shows that we can generate distribution-free tests of various semiparametric conditional moment restrictions using this martingale transform. The paper proposes feasible martingale transforms using series estimation and establishes their asymptotic validity. Some results from a Monte Carlo simulation study are presented and discussed.

Bootstrapping Frequency Domain Tests in Multivariate Time Series with an Application to Comparing Spectral Densities

SummaryWe propose a general bootstrap procedure to approximate the null distribution of non-parametric frequency domain tests about the spectral density matrix of a multivariate time series. Under a set of easy-to-verify conditions, we establish asymptotic validity of the bootstrap procedure proposed. We apply a version of this procedure together with a new statistic to test the hypothesis that the spectral densities of not necessarily independent time series are equal. The test statistic proposed is based on an L2-distance between the non-parametrically estimated individual spectral densities and an overall, ‘pooled’ spectral density, the latter being obtained by using the whole set of m time series considered. The effects of the dependence between the time series on the power behaviour of the test are investigated. Some simulations are presented and a real life data example is discussed.

VALIDITY OF SUBSAMPLING AND “PLUG-IN ASYMPTOTIC” INFERENCE FOR PARAMETERS DEFINED BY MOMENT INEQUALITIES

This paper considers inference for parameters defined by moment inequalities and equalities. The parameters need not be identified. For a specified class of test statistics, this paper establishes the uniform asymptotic validity of subsampling,mout ofnbootstrap, and “plug-in asymptotic” tests and confidence intervals for such parameters. Establishing uniform asymptotic validity is crucial in moment inequality problems because the pointwise asymptotic distributions of the test statistics of interest have discontinuities as functions of the true distribution that generates the observations.The size results are quite general because they hold without specifying the particular form of the moment conditions—only 2 +δmoments finite are required. The results allow for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and dependent observations and for preliminary consistent estimation of identified parameters.

A representation formula for the voltage perturbations caused by diametrically small conductivity inhomogeneities. Proof of uniform validity

We revisit the asymptotic formulas originally derived in [D.J. Cedio-Fengya, S. Moskow, M.S. Vogelius, Identification of conductivity imperfections of small diameter by boundary measurements. Continuous dependence and computational reconstruction, Inverse Problems 14 (1998) 553–595; A. Friedman, M. Vogelius, Identification of small inhomogeneities of extreme conductivity by boundary measurements: A theorem on continuous dependence, Arch. Ration. Mech. Anal. 105 (1989) 299–326]. These formulas concern the perturbation in the voltage potential caused by the presence of diametrically small conductivity inhomogeneities. We significantly extend the validity of the previously derived formulas, by showing that they are asymptotically correct, uniformly with respect to the conductivity of the inhomogeneities. We also extend the earlier formulas by allowing the conductivities of the inhomogeneities to be completely arbitrary L∞, positive definite, symmetric matrix-valued functions. We briefly discuss the relevance of the uniform asymptotic validity, and the admission of arbitrary anisotropically conducting inhomogeneities, as far as applications of the perturbation formulas to “approximate cloaking” are concerned.

Validity of dependent bootstrapping in finite populations

The traditional bootstrap resamples with replacement from the original sample observations to form arrays of row-wise independent and identically distributed bootstrap random variables. There are situations, for example, when sampling from finite populations, where resampling without replacement provides a more realistic bootstrap procedure and produces dependent bootstrap random variables. The desired properties of consistency and asymptotic validity are shown to hold for certain nonparametric dependent bootstrap estimators. In addition, it is shown that the smaller variation in dependent bootstrap estimators can be used to increase precision in some of the estimators.

Invalidity of the bootstrap and the m out of n bootstrap for confidence interval endpoints defined by moment inequalities

Summary This paper analyses the finite-sample and asymptotic properties of several bootstrap and m out of n bootstrap methods for constructing confidence interval (CI) endpoints in models defined by moment inequalities. In particular, we consider using these methods directly to construct CI endpoints. By considering two very simple models, the paper shows that neither the bootstrap nor the m out of n bootstrap is valid in finite samples or in a uniform asymptotic sense in general when applied directly to construct CI endpoints. In contrast, other results in the literature show that other ways of applying the bootstrap, m out of n bootstrap, and subsampling do lead to uniformly asymptotically valid confidence sets in moment inequality models. Thus, the uniform asymptotic validity of resampling methods in moment inequality models depends on the way in which the resampling methods are employed.

Bootstrapping Realized Volatility

We propose bootstrap methods for a general class of nonlinear transformations of realized volatility which includes the raw version of realized volatility and its logarithmic transformation as special cases. We consider the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) bootstrap and the wild bootstrap (WB), and prove their first-order asymptotic validity under general assumptions on the log-price process that allow for drift and leverage effects. We derive Edgeworth expansions in a simpler model that rules out these effects. The i.i.d. bootstrap provides a second-order asymptotic refinement when volatility is constant, but not otherwise. The WB yields a second-order asymptotic refinement under stochastic volatility provided we choose the external random variable used to construct the WB data appropriately. None of these methods provides third-order asymptotic refinements. Both methods improve upon the first-order asymptotic theory in finite samples.

Subsampling tests for the mean change point with heavy-tailed innovations

The quest of the mean change point with innovations in the domain of attraction of a κ -stable law appears to still be ongoing. We adopt the residual CUSUM of squares test (RCUSQ) and derive its null asymptotic distribution, which is dependent on stable index κ . Then a residual-based subsampling is proposed to approximate the null distribution when stable index κ is unknown. Consistency and the rate of convergence for the estimated change point are also obtained. We establish the asymptotic validity of this method and assess its performance both theoretically and numerically.

Testing the equality of error distributions from [formula omitted] independent GARCH models

In this paper we study the problem of testing the null hypothesis that errors from k independent parametrically specified generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models have the same distribution versus a general alternative. First we establish the asymptotic validity of a class of linear test statistics derived from the k residual-based empirical distribution functions. A distinctive feature is that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics involves terms depending on the distributions of errors and the parameters of the models, and weight functions providing the flexibility to choose scores for investigating power performance. A Monte Carlo study assesses the asymptotic performance in terms of empirical size and power of the three-sample test based on the Wilcoxon and Van der Waerden score generating functions in finite samples. The results demonstrate that the two proposed tests have overall reasonable size and their power is particularly high when the assumption of Gaussian errors is violated. As an illustrative example, the tests are applied to daily individual stock returns of the New York Stock Exchange data.

K-sample subsampling in general spaces: The case of independent time series

The problem of subsampling in two-sample and K -sample settings is addressed where both the data and the statistics of interest take values in general spaces. We focus on the case where each sample is a stationary time series, and construct subsampling confidence intervals and hypothesis tests with asymptotic validity. Some examples are also given, and the problem of optimal block size choice is discussed.

A nonparametric test for equality of distributions with mixed categorical and continuous data

In this paper we consider the problem of testing for equality of two density or two conditional density functions defined over mixed discrete and continuous variables. We smooth both the discrete and continuous variables, with the smoothing parameters chosen via least-squares cross-validation. The test statistics are shown to have (asymptotic) normal null distributions. However, we advocate the use of bootstrap methods in order to better approximate their null distribution in finite-sample settings and we provide asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap method. Simulations show that the proposed tests have better power than both conventional frequency-based tests and smoothing tests based on ad hoc smoothing parameter selection, while a demonstrative empirical application to the joint distribution of earnings and educational attainment underscores the utility of the proposed approach in mixed data settings.

Bootstrapping Sequential Change-Point Tests

In this article we propose some bootstrapping methods to obtain critical values for sequential change-point tests. We consider a change in the mean with i.i.d. errors. Theoretical results show the asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap procedures. A simulation study compares the bootstrap and the asymptotic tests and shows that the studentized bootstrap test behave generally better than asymptotic tests if measured by α- resp. β-errors and its run length.

Asymptotic and bootstrap tests for linearity in a TAR-GARCH(1,1) model with a unit root

This paper derives the limiting distribution of the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for threshold nonlinearity in a TAR model with GARCH errors when one of the regimes contains a unit root. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution is nonstandard and depends on nuisance parameters that capture the degree of conditional heteroskedasticity and non-Gaussian nature of the process. We propose a bootstrap procedure for approximating the exact finite-sample distribution of the test for linearity and establish its asymptotic validity.

Asymptotically valid single-stage multiple-comparison procedures

We establish general conditions for the asymptotic validity of single-stage multiple-comparison procedures (MCPs) under the following general framework. There is a finite number of independent alternatives to compare, where each alternative can represent, e.g., a population, treatment, system or stochastic process. Associated with each alternative is an unknown parameter to be estimated, and the goal is to compare the alternatives in terms of the parameters. We establish the MCPs’ asymptotic validity, which occurs as the sample size of each alternative grows large, under two assumptions. First, for each alternative, the estimator of its parameter satisfies a central limit theorem (CLT). Second, we have a consistent estimator of the variance parameter appearing in the CLT. Our framework encompasses comparing means (or other moments) of independent (not necessarily normal) populations, functions of means, quantiles, steady-state means of stochastic processes, and optimal solutions of stochastic approximation by the Kiefer–Wolfowitz algorithm. The MCPs we consider are multiple comparisons with the best, all pairwise comparisons, all contrasts, and all linear combinations, and they allow for unknown and unequal variance parameters and unequal sample sizes across alternatives.

Higher order semiparametric frequentist inference with the profile sampler

We consider higher order frequentist inference for the parametric component of a semiparametric model based on sampling from the posterior profile distribution. The first order validity of this procedure established by Lee, Kosorok and Fine in [J. American Statist. Assoc. 100 (2005) 960--969] is extended to second-order validity in the setting where the infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter achieves the parametric rate. Specifically, we obtain higher order estimates of the maximum profile likelihood estimator and of the efficient Fisher information. Moreover, we prove that an exact frequentist confidence interval for the parametric component at level $\alpha$ can be estimated by the $\alpha$-level credible set from the profile sampler with an error of order $O_P(n^{-1})$. Simulation studies are used to assess second-order asymptotic validity of the profile sampler. As far as we are aware, these are the first higher order accuracy results for semiparametric frequentist inference.

UNIT ROOT TEST IN A THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSION: ASYMPTOTIC THEORY AND RESIDUAL-BASED BLOCK BOOTSTRAP

This paper develops a test of the unit root null hypothesis against a stationary threshold process. This testing problem is nonstandard and complicated because a parameter is unidentified and the process is nonstationary under the null hypothesis. We derive an asymptotic distribution for the test, which is not pivotal without simplifying assumptions. A residual-based block bootstrap is proposed to calculate the asymptoticp-values. The asymptotic validity of the bootstrap is established, and a set of Monte Carlo simulations demonstrates its finite-sample performance. In particular, the test exhibits considerable power gains over the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, which neglects threshold effects.

Statistical Extreme Load Extrapolation With Quadratic Distortions for Wind Turbines

Extrapolation of extreme loads using turbulent wind samples of various mean speeds and random starting points is addressed using probability distribution functions that are suitably distorted to fit the peak extremes. The tail of the extreme value distribution of the simulated loads is required to fit accurately and this tail is extrapolated to a 50‐year exceedance probability to determine the characteristic load. The Gumbel distribution with a quadratic distortion is especially addressed due to its asymptotic theoretical validity for Gaussian loads. The blade root moments and the hub moments are studied here with respect to their behavior under extrapolation using a quadratic Gumbel distribution. Verification with a large number of random seeds at various mean wind speeds is done, so as to assess the accuracy of the extrapolation and the convergence of the extrapolated load. Methods of accounting for the variance in the extrapolated load with changes in the random wind seeds are proposed.

Empirical likelihood based testing for regression

Consider a random vector $(X,Y)$ and let $m(x)=E(Y|X=x)$. We are interested in testing $H_0:m\in {\cal M}_{\Theta,{\cal G}}=\{\gamma(\cdot,\theta,g):\theta \in \Theta,g\in {\cal G}\}$ for some known function $\gamma$, some compact set $\Theta \subset $IR$^p$ and some function set ${\cal G}$ of real valued functions. Specific examples of this general hypothesis include testing for a parametric regression model, a generalized linear model, a partial linear model, a single index model, but also the selection of explanatory variables can be considered as a special case of this hypothesis. To test this null hypothesis, we make use of the so-called marked empirical process introduced by \citeD and studied by \citeSt for the particular case of parametric regression, in combination with the modern technique of empirical likelihood theory in order to obtain a powerful testing procedure. The asymptotic validity of the proposed test is established, and its finite sample performance is compared with other existing tests by means of a simulation study.

Empirical Likelihood Block Bootstrapping

Monte Carlo evidence has made it clear that asymptotic tests based on generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation have disappointing size. The problem is exacerbated when the moment conditions are serially correlated. Several block bootstrap techniques have been proposed to correct the problem, including Hall and Horowitz (1996) and Inoue and Shintani (2006). We propose an empirical likelihood block bootstrap procedure to improve inference where models are characterized by nonlinear moment conditions that are serially correlated of possibly infinite order. Combining the ideas of Kitamura (1997) and Brown and Newey (2002), the parameters of a model are initially estimated by GMM which are then used to compute the empirical likelihood probability weights of the blocks of moment conditions. The probability weights serve as the multinomial distribution used in resampling. The first-order asymptotic validity of the proposed procedure is proven, and a series of Monte Carlo experiments show it may improve test sizes over conventional block bootstrapping.