Price Asymmetry Research Articles

Oil prices, exchange rate, and the price asymmetry in the Taiwanese retail gasoline market

This study used the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag model to evaluate the influence of oil price and exchange rate fluctuations on retail gasoline prices in Taiwan. Unlike the numerous previous studies, we considered the unit root tests with a structural break and suggested that all price variables were stationary series. We also showed that the adjustments of retail gasoline price follow a politico-economic asymmetry. Moreover, gasoline price responses to exchange-rate shocks were slow and complex and exhibited reverse adjustments during periods of initial exchange-rate depreciation. This is potentially because domestic petroleum companies must purchase foreign currency before purchasing crude oil.

Asymmetry: Resurrecting the roots

Abstract This note provides for a didactic survey on a range of primary methods for dealing with price asymmetry. Using Wolffram's (1971) stylized example, we argue that asymmetry can be captured in a straightforward and highly intuitive manner with first differences. While this asymmetry definition is more readily interpretable than the alternatives proposed by Wolffram (1971) and Houck (1977) , we demonstrate that, theoretically, all three of these definitions are equivalent. Using data on U.S. coffee consumption, however, we illustrate that, in practice, these approaches may yield divergent conclusions on asymmetry. In such situations, the asymmetry concept based on first differences is advantageous.

Asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade

This paper measures the response of bilateral trade flows to differences in industrial energy prices across countries. Using a rich panel dataset with 42 countries, 62 manufacturing sectors over 16 years (1996–2011) and covering 60% of global merchandise trade, we estimate the short-run effects of sector-level energy price asymmetry on trade. We find that changes in relative energy prices have a statistically significant but very small impact on imports. On average, a 10% increase in the energy price difference between two country-sectors increases imports by 0.2%. The impact is larger for energy-intensive sectors. Even in these sectors, however, the magnitude of the effect is such that changes in energy price differences across time explain less than 0.01% of the variation in trade flows. Simulations based on our model predict that a €40–65/tCO2 price of carbon in the EU ETS would increase Europe's imports from the rest of the world by less than 0.05% and decrease exports by 0.2%.

Structural Changes and Dairy Chain Efficiency in Italy

The dairy chain in Italy experienced substantial structural changes during the past years. Since the introduction of milk quotas in 1984, structural changes caused by consistent reduction of dairy farms, growing brand concentration at wholesale level, and diffusion of private labels at retail level may have altered the competitive market conditions, with increasing price asymmetry and inefficiencies in price transmission. We tested this hypothesis using the McCorriston and Sheldon’s successive oligopoly model, and we gave evidences of altered price transmission and consumer’s surplus distribution along the vertical chain in the examined period.

국내 수송용 석유제품 시장의 시장구조와 가격행태

본 논문에서는 경제이론과 실증분석을 통하여 이명박 정부가 석유제품 시장에 개입한 논거를 평가하였다. 한국을 포함하여 세계적으로 정제산업은 과점이 보편적이며, 역차별적인 수준의 대외 시장개방에도 불구하고 석유제품 시장에서 국내 정유4사의 시장점유율이 높게 지속되는 이유는 정유4사가 국제적인 가격경쟁력을 보유하고 있고 MOPS 가격을 기준으로 경쟁적인 가격책정을 하고 있기 때문이다. 국내 세전 소비자가격은 일본의 가격과 '27개 EU권 국가의 가격들을 가중평균한 값'보다 통계적으로 유의하게 현저히 낮았다. 한국, 일본, 14개 EU권 국가들을 대상으로 가격 비대칭성의 존재여부와 상세내역을 분석한 결과, 휘발유의 경우 한국과 11개 EU권 국가, 경유의 경우 한국과 8개 EU권 국가에서 비대칭성이 있는 것으로 판별되었다. 가격 비대칭성은 다양한 경제 경영적 원인에 의해 다양한 제품과 시장구조에서 발생한다. 소비자 복지의 관점에서는 한국의 세전 소비자가격이 현저히 낮다는 점이 제일 중요하다. We evaluate two main rationales of massive policy intervention of Lee Administration in the Korean transportation fuel market: high market share of domestic refineries, perceived by the Administration as the result of high market concentration, and asymmetry in price adjustment, perceived as the result of collusion. Domestic refineries, huge in capacity and located at seaports, maintain international competitiveness in price. Considering market openness offering preferential treatment to importers, they set domestic prices competitively on the basis of MOPS prices. Yet, the price competitiveness of domestic refineries is so high that they are able to sustain high market share. We confirm that the Korean before-tax consumer prices of gasoline and diesel are lower than Japan's and the weighted averages of 27 EU countries by as much as 159KRW and 21KRW per liter in the case of gasoline and 170KRW and 63KRW in the case of diesel. Price asymmetry is caused by diverse economic and managerial reasons and, as FTC (2005) states, price asymmetry does not immediately imply exercise of market power or collusion. We analyzed price asymmetry in Korea, Japan and 14 EU countries, and found asymmetry in Korea and 11 EU countries in the case of gasoline and in Korea and 8 EU countries in the case of diesel.

Price asymmetry revisited from a marketing perspective

Price asymmetry is a longstanding issue in economics that pre-dates Keynes' introduction of the term, “price rigidity.” Many theories provide possible explanations of price asymmetry. This paper demonstrates that asymmetric marketing decisions based on the inherent asymmetry of inventory costs over the business cycle can generate price asymmetries that match at least one important empirical regularity. The theoretical mechanism we propose follows from the observation that firms face inventory costs proportion to excess supply during recessions, which fall to zero in periods of excess demand. This asymmetry of inventory costs gives firms two incentives during recessions. First, a firm facing excess supply has an incentive to reduce price, seeking to sell larger quantities and thereby reduce inventory costs. The firm may increase its intensity of promotional activity, again seeking to sell larger quantities but with the counterintuitive effect of increasing consumers' willingness to pay which pushes prices higher. If the latter effect dominates the former effect, then prices may not fall much during recessions. A similar phenomenon occurs when the macroeconomic business-cycle faces a cost-side shock. The inventory-cost mechanism explains the empirical finding that asymmetry in gasoline prices are more severe in countries with high degrees of market concentration such as Japan and Korea. This new theoretical link tells us which kinds of industrial structures are likely to produce the most severe price asymmetries.

Price Transmission and Threshold Behavior in the African Catfish Supply Chain in Uganda

The issue of price linkage in the catfish supply chain in Uganda is important because catfish has become an important traded species with exports to regional markets rising even faster than production, yet limited research has been undertaken to understand the linkages and the non-linearity in the price transmission mechanism. This paper explores the issue using monthly price data from January 2006 to August 2013, and applies threshold autoregressive approaches to test for the existence of a long-run relationship and price asymmetry. The results show that prices in the catfish value chain are tied together by a long-run relationship. It is also revealed that ex-vessel and wholesale price adjustments to retail price changes are symmetric while ex-vessel price adjustments to wholesale price changes are shown to be asymmetric. The direction of causal relationships was observed from the retail to the wholesale and ex-vessel markets, indicating that retailers are the price leaders in the Uganda catfish supply chain.

Price Dependence between Different Beef Cuts and Quality Grades: A Copula Approach at the Retail Level for the U.S. Beef Industry

Abstract The objective of this study is to assess the degree and the structure of price dependence between different cuts of the beef industry in the USA. This is pursued using the statistical tool of copulas. To this end, it utilizes retail monthly data of beef cuts, within and between the quality grades of Choice and Select, over the period 2000–2014. For the Choice quality grade, there was evidence of asymmetric price co-movements between all six pairs of beef cuts under consideration. No evidence of asymmetric price co-movements was found between the three pairs of beef cuts for the Select quality grade. For the pairs of beef cuts formed between the Choice and Select quality grades, the empirical results point to the existence of price asymmetry only for the case of the chuck roast cut.

Price asymmetry between different pork cuts in the USA: a copula approach

The objective of this study is to assess the degree and the structure of price dependence between different cuts in the US pork industry at the retail level. To this end, it utilizes monthly retail data of pork cuts and the statistical tool of copulas. The empirical results suggest that for all pairs, retail prices are not likely neither to boom nor to crash together, even though overall dependence is quite considerable for two of the three pairs considered in this study. No evidence of asymmetric price co-movements was found.

Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market

Using monthly data from 1994 to 2013 we study the long-run relation of the pre-tax retail prices of gasoline with crude price and the nominal exchange rate. We find a strongly significant long-run relation. We then use the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model to assess the asymmetries on both the short- and long-run elasticities, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the pricing behaviour. The estimation results confirm the presence of asymmetry in the long-run elasticities, with significant differences between the crude price and the exchange rate, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the relation between the retail price of gasoline and crude oil price.

Price integration in the farmed and wild fish markets in Uganda

This paper looks at price integration in the aquaculture and wild-harvested African catfish market channels in Uganda. The issue of integration between the two market channels is important because African catfish has become an important traded species in Uganda with exports to regional markets rising even faster than production, yet limited research has been undertaken to understand price formation in the supply chain. The analysis draws on monthly price data from January 2006 to August 2013, and applies threshold autoregressive approaches to test for the existence of a long-run relationship and price asymmetry and to determine the time path needed for shocks to be transmitted from one market channel to the other. The results show that, over the studied period prices in both market channels are linked in the long-run, implying that farm-raised catfish forms part of the same market as wild-harvested catfish in the country. The findings have strong implications for aquaculture producers and artisanal fishers as they can serve as a basis for more efficient farm management and marketing decisions.

The taxation effect on gasoline price asymmetry nexus: Evidence from both sides of the Atlantic

This paper explores the degree of competition in various gasoline markets and infers possible causes of price asymmetry across the globe. For this purpose we use the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square method in order to estimate price asymmetry in twelve European countries and the United States for a sample of weekly observations which spans the period from June 1996 to August 2011. The results indicate the common perception that less competitive gasoline markets exhibit price asymmetry, while highly competitive gasoline markets follow a symmetric price adjustment path. Finally, the inclusion of taxes (VAT and excise tax) into retail gasoline prices, supports the existence of price asymmetry in many European countries.

Analysis of the margin asymmetry in the domestic gasoline markets

In contrast to the existing studies that analyzed the asymmetry of sales price and cost price of gasoline, in this study, we analyzed how the profit margins of oil refineries and gas stations are adjusted for gasoline price fluctuations. According to the study, the profit margin decreases (increases) when the cost of both gas stations and oil companies increases (decreases). First, we estimated that both short- and long-term changes in the profit margins of refineries due to fluctuations in the international price of gasoline are symmetric. In contrast, while the profit margin of the gas stations adjusted symmetrically with the long-term fluctuations in refinery gasoline price, it adjust asymmetrically for the short term, as the proportion of decrease in refinery profit margin to the increase in refinery gasoline price is greater than that of refinery profit margin increase to refinery gasoline price decrease.

A Note on Price Asymmetry Using a Monetary Model

In this paper we present a macroeconomic foundation of downward money price inflexibility based on classical Monetary Economics. We show that under the principle of risk aversion and the neutral money axiom, our model derives an endogenous asymmetric price response as prices adjust more rapidly when they go upward than downward. This asymmetry does not disappear; on the contrary, it is increasing in time.

ON THE COMPARISON OF BAYESIAN INFORMATION CRITERION AND DRAPER'S INFORMATION CRITERION IN SELECTION OF AN ASYMMETRIC PRICE RELATIONSHIP: BOOTSTRAP SIMULATION RESULTS

Alternative formulations of the Bayesian Information Criteria provide a basis for choosing between competing methods for detecting price asymmetry. However, very little is understood about their performance in the asymmetric price transmission modelling framework. In addressing this issue, this paper introduces and applies parametric bootstrap techniques to evaluate the ability of Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and Draper's Information Criteria (DIC) in discriminating between alternative asymmetric price transmission models under various error and sample size conditions. The results of the bootstrap simulations indicate that model selection performance depends on bootstrap sample size and the amount of noise in the data generating process. The Bayesian criterion clearly identifies the true asymmetric model out of different competing models in the presence of bootstrap samples. Draper's Information Criteria (DIC; Draper, 1995) outperforms BIC at either larger bootstrap sample size or lower noise level.

Symmetric or asymmetric oil prices? A meta-analysis approach

The analysis of price asymmetries in the gasoline market is one of the most widely studied in energy economics. However, the great variation in the outcomes reported makes the drawing of any definitive conclusions difficult. Given this situation, a meta-analysis serves as an excellent tool to discover which characteristics of the various markets analyzed, and which specific features of these studies, might account for these differences. In adopting such an approach, this paper shows how the particular segment of the industry analyzed, the characteristics of the data, the years under review, the type of publication and the introduction of control variables might explain this heterogeneity in results. The paper concludes on these grounds that increased competition may significantly reduce the possibility of occurrence of asymmetric behavior. These results should be taken into consideration therefore in future studies of asymmetries in the oil industry.

Asymmetric gasoline price responses in France

This article examines the response of gasoline prices in France to shocks to crude oil prices in the international market. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration, we investigate potential price asymmetries in the French diesel and premium gasoline markets using weekly data over the period from May 1990 to April 2011. We find that gasoline prices gradually adjust towards a long-term equilibrium after a shock to the crude oil price, but this adjustment is lower when the crude oil price decreases than when it increases. We also find that the estimates differ slightly depending on the chosen gasoline price.

Asymmetry Resurrecting the Roots

This note attempts to reconcile a range of primary methods for dealing with price asymmetry, such as the approaches proposed by Tweeten and Quance (1969), Wolffram (1971) and Houk(1977). Using Wolffram’s stylized example, we first illustrate that the notion of asymmetry can be captured in a straightforward and highly intuitive manner in terms of first differences. While this asymmetry definition is more readily interpretable than the alternatives proposed by Wolff ram and Houk, we demonstrate that, theoretically, these definitions are equivalent. This conclusion also turns out to be true for Wolfframs’s stylized example. Using data on coffee consumption, however, we illustrate that, in practice, these approaches may yield divergent conclusions with respect to asymmetry. We argue that in such situations the asymmetry notion based on first differences should be preferred.

On possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets: Necessary conditions and probable scenarios

We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area of specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysis methods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable manifestation of the influence of space weather on prices, discovered in the statistics of intervals between the price hikes and phase price asymmetry. We show that the effects of phase price asymmetry persist even during the early modern period in the U.S. in the production of the durum wheat. Within the proposed approach, we analyze the statistics of depopulation in the eighteenth and nineteenth century Iceland, induced by the famine due to a sharp livestock reduction owing to, in its turn, the lack of foodstuff due to the local weather anomalies. A high statistical significance of temporal matching of these events with the periods of extreme solar activity is demonstrated. We discuss the possible consequences of the observed global climate change in the formation of new areas of risk farming, sensitive to space weather.

Price asymmetries and volatility in the Italian gasoline market

AbstractThe oil price volatility registered in this period has suggested us to investigate the ef that variability has on price transmission mechanism on the Italian gasoline market. In this paper, we investigate the effect that price volatilities have on price speed adjustment in the production–distribution chain. We consider the wholesale and the retail market. We divide the sample into two subsamples and estimate, in the former, industrial gasoline price responses for a period of low volatility and a period with high volatility of oil prices and, in the latter, retail gasoline price responses for the same period of low and high volatilities of industrial prices. In the period marked by a large price volatility, the degree of asymmetry tends to decrease. In fact, the effects of downstream price decrease are larger than those of price increase and do not reflect the consumers' perception.