Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation Research Articles

Assimilation of Radar Reflectivity Data Using Parameterized Forward Operators for Improving Short‐Term Forecasts of High‐Impact Convection Events

AbstractThe assimilation of radar reflectivity requires an accurate and efficient forward operator that links the model state variables to radar observations. In this study, newly developed parameterized forward operators (PFO) for radar reflectivity with a new continuous melting model are implemented to assimilate observed radar data. To assess the impact of the novel parameterized reflectivity forward operators on convective storm analysis and forecasting, two distinct sets of cycled assimilation and forecast experiments are conducted. One set of experiments (ExpRFO) uses a conventional Rayleigh‐scattering‐approximation‐based forward operator (RFO) with hydrometeor classification, while the other uses the PFO (ExpPFO_New) for radar reflectivity with a new continuous melting model. Eight high‐impact severe convective weather events from the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) 2019 Spring Experiments are selected for this study. The analysis and forecast results are first examined in detail for a classic tornadic supercell case on 24 May 2019, with the potential benefits provided by the PFO then evaluated for all eight cases. It is demonstrated that ExpPFO_New provides more robust results in terms of improving the short‐term severe weather forecasts. Compared to ExpRFO, ExpPFO_New better reproduces all observed supercells in the analysis field, yields a more continuous and reasonable reflectivity distribution near the melting layer, and improves the strength of the cold pool compared to observations. Overall, ExpPFO_New, initialized from the more accurate analysis fields, produces better forecasts of reflectivity and hourly precipitation with smaller biases, especially at heavy precipitation thresholds.

Development of Multiscale EnKF within GSI and Its Applications to Multiple Convective Storm Cases with Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation Using the FV3 Limited-Area Model

Abstract To improve the representation of all relevant scales in initial conditions for large-domain convection-allowing models, a new multiscale ensemble Kalman filter (MEnKF) algorithm is developed and implemented within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system (GSI) data assimilation framework coupled with the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) limited-area model. The algorithm utilizes ensemble background error covariances filtered to match the observations assimilated. This is realized in a sequential manner. 1) When assimilating coarse-resolution observations such as radiosondes, ensemble background perturbations are filtered to remove scales smaller than those the observations can represent, along with relatively large horizontal localization radii to ensure low-noise and balanced analysis increments. 2) The resulting ensemble analyses from the first step then serve as the background to assimilate denser observations such as radar data with smaller localization radii. Several passes can be taken to assimilate all observations. In this paper, vertically increasing horizontal filter scales are used when assimilating rawinsonde and surface observations together, while radar data are assimilated in the second step. The algorithm is evaluated through six convective storm cases during May 2021, with cycled assimilation of either conventional data only or with additional radar reflectivity followed by 24-h ensemble forecasts. Overall, positive impacts of the MEnKF on forecasts are obtained regardless of reflectivity data; its advantage over the single-scale EnKF is most significant in surface humidity and temperature forecasts up to at least 12 h. More accurate hourly precipitation forecasts with MEnKF can last up to 24 h for light rain. Furthermore, MEnKF forecasts higher ensemble probabilities for the observed hazardous events.

Impact of Direct Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation on the Simulation of Mesoscale Descending Inflow and Secondary Eyewall Formation in Hurricane Matthew (2016)

AbstractThe impact of assimilating ground‐based radar reflectivity on the rainband structure and secondary eyewall formation (SEF) of Hurricane Matthew (2016) is investigated within the framework of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model and its hybrid three‐dimensional ensemble‐variational data assimilation (DA) system. Compared to the control experiment (no radar reflectivity DA), the radar reflectivity DA experiment shows a clear signal of concentric eyewall and eyewall replacement cycle. Results demonstrate that radar reflectivity DA improves the stratiform rainband analysis, resulting in the mid‐level cooling associated with mesoscale descending inflow (MDI). The MDI further contributes to the low‐level acceleration maximum with boundary layer dynamics and triggers new convective updrafts in the SEF region. Momentum budget analysis also suggests that the mean vertical advection of absolute angular momentum plays an important role in the local momentum tendency in the SEF region in Hurricane Matthew (2016).

A Comparison of 3DEnVar and 4DEnVar for Convective-Scale Direct Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation in the Context of a Filter and a Smoother

Abstract The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four- and three-dimensional ensemble–variational (4DEnVar and 3DEnVar) methods are compared as a smoother and a filter, respectively, for rapidly changing storms using the convective-scale direct radar reflectivity data assimilation (DA) framework. Two sets of experiments with varying DA window lengths (WLs; 20, 40, 100, and 160 min) and radar observation intervals (RIs; 20 and 5 min) are conducted for the 5–6 May 2019 case. The RI determines the temporal resolution of ensemble perturbations for the smoother and the DA interval for the filter spanning the WL. For experiments with a 20-min RI, evaluations suggest that the filter and the smoother have comparable performance with a 20-min WL; however, extending the WL results in the outperformance of the filter over the smoother. Diagnostics reveal that the degradation of the smoother is attributed to the increased degree of nonlinearity and the issue of time-independent localization as the WL extends. Evaluations for experiments with different RIs under the same WL indicate that the outperformance of the filter over the smoother diminishes for most forecast hours at thresholds of 30 dBZ and above when shortening the RI. Diagnostics show that more frequent interruptions of the model introduce model imbalance for the filter, and the increased temporal resolution of ensemble perturbations enhances the degree of nonlinearity for the smoother. The impact of model imbalance on the filter overwhelms the enhanced nonlinearity on the smoother as the RI reduces. Significance Statement The background uncertainties of rapidly changing storms suffer from fast error growth and high degrees of nonlinearities during the data assimilation (DA) period. Two variants of the ensemble-based DA method can account for such temporal evolution. The smoother uses background ensemble from multiple observation times over an assimilation period to estimate the propagation of statistics. The filter frequently calculates the statistics at multiple observation times over the same period. Current comparisons of the smoother and the filter were mostly performed using simple models; however, unknowns remain for convection-allowing forecasts with additional complexities. This study compares the filter and the smoother for the convective-scale analysis and prediction using a real-data study and finds that the comparison varies with the assimilation period and the observation interval.

Test of Power Transformation Function to Hydrometeor and Water Vapor Mixing Ratios for Direct Variational Assimilation of Radar Reflectivity Data

Abstract Assimilating radar reflectivity into convective-scale NWP models remains a challenging topic in radar data assimilation. A primary reason is that the reflectivity forward observation operator is highly nonlinear. To address this challenge, a power transformation function is applied to the WRF Model’s hydrometeor and water vapor mixing ratio variables in this study. Three 3D variational data assimilation experiments are performed and compared for five high-impact weather events that occurred in 2019: (i) a control experiment that assimilates reflectivity using the original hydrometeor mixing ratios as control variables, (ii) an experiment that assimilates reflectivity using power-transformed hydrometeor mixing ratios as control variables, and (iii) an experiment that assimilates reflectivity and retrieved pseudo–water vapor observations using power-transformed hydrometeor and water vapor mixing ratios (qυ) as control variables. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are performed for 0–3-h forecasts from the five cases. The analysis and forecast performance in the two experiments with power-transformed mixing ratios is better than the control experiment. Notably, the assimilation of pseudo–water vapor with power-transformed qυ as an additional control variable is found to improve the performance of the analysis and short-term forecasts for all cases. In addition, the convergence rate of the cost function minimization for the two experiments that use the power transformation is faster than that of the control experiments. Significance Statement The effective use of radar reflectivity observations in any data assimilation scheme remains an important research topic because reflectivity observations explicitly include information about hydrometeors and also implicitly include information about the distribution of moisture within storms. However, it is difficult to assimilate reflectivity because the reflectivity forward observation operator is highly nonlinear. This study seeks to identify a more effective way to assimilate reflectivity into a convective-scale NWP model to improve the accuracy of predictions of high-impact weather events.

Impacts of adding hydrometeor control variables on the radar reflectivity data assimilation for the 6–8 August 2018 mesoscale convective system case

Hydrometeor information from radar reflectivity observations plays an important role in initializing convective-scale numerical weather forecast (NWP). The introduction of hydrometeor control variables facilitates rational division of the reflectivity information to obtain more accurate initial conditions of cloud and precipitation. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the effects of adding hydrometeor control variables on assimilation and forecasting are explored for a strong convective process occurring in Liaoning Province in this study. The results show that, compared with the experiment of no hydrometeor control variable, the presences of hydrometeor control variables are beneficial to the analyses of horizontal and vertical distribution of hydrometeors, which enables a better match of the analyzed structures with the reflectivity observations. Moreover, the reasonable hydrometeor distribution is able to reduce the generation of false echoes during assimilation. According to the results of the forecast experiments, using hydrometeor control variables tends to slow down the dissipation of hydrometeors, leading improved forecasting skills of the quantitative precipitation.

Effects of large-scale constraint and constraint variables on the high-frequency assimilation of radar reflectivity data in convective precipitation forecasting

Effects of large-scale constraint and constraint variables on the high-frequency assimilation of radar reflectivity data in convective precipitation forecasting

Impact of Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation Frequency on Convection-Allowing Forecasts of Diverse Cases over the Continental United States

Abstract The sensitivity of convection-allowing forecasts over the continental United States to radar reflectivity data assimilation (DA) frequency is explored within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based ensemble–variational (EnVar) system. Experiments with reflectivity DA intervals of 60, 20, and 5 min (RAIN60, RAIN20, and RAIN5, respectively) are conducted using 10 diverse cases. Quantitative verification indicates that the degree of sensitivity depends on storm features during the radar DA period. Five developing storms show high sensitivity, whereas five mature or decaying storms do not. The 20-min interval is the most reliable given its best overall performance compared to the 5- and 60-min intervals. Diagnostics suggest that the differences in analyzed cold pools (ACPs) among RAIN60, RAIN20, and RAIN5 vary by storm features during the radar DA period. Such ACP differences result in different forecast skills. In the case where RAIN20 outperforms RAIN60 and the case where RAIN5 outperforms RAIN20, assimilation of reflectivity with a higher frequency commonly produces enhanced and widespread ACPs, promoting broader storms that match better with reality than a lower frequency. In the case where RAIN5 performs worse than RAIN20, the model imbalance of RAIN5 overwhelms information gain associated with frequent assimilation, producing overestimated and spuriously fast-moving ACPs. In the cases where little sensitivity to the reflectivity DA frequency is found, similar ACPs are produced.

Comparison of the WRF-FDDA-Based Radar Reflectivity and Lightning Data Assimilation for Short-Term Precipitation and Lightning Forecasts of Severe Convection

This work evaluates and compares the performance of the radar reflectivity and lightning data assimilation schemes implemented in weather research and forecasting-four-dimensional data assimilation (WRF-FDDA) for short-term precipitation and lightning forecasts. All six mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) with a duration greater than seven hours that occurred in the Guangdong Province of China during June 2020 were included in the experiments. The results show that both the radar reflectivity data assimilation and lightning data assimilation improved the analyses and short-term forecasts of the precipitation and lightning of the MCSs. On average, for precipitation forecasts, the experiments with radar reflectivity data assimilation performed better than those with lightning data assimilation; however, for lightning forecasts, the experiments with lightning data assimilation performed better in the analysis period and 1 h forecast, and for some cases, the superiority lasted to three forecast hours. This highlights the potential of lightning data assimilation in short-term lightning forecasting.

Influence of the indirect assimilation of radar reflectivity data using the ensemble Kalman filter on the simulation of a warm-sector squall line

Radar data assimilation is an important method to improve the performance of numerical models in severe convective weather. In this study, the statistical relationships between the radar reflectivity intensity and the latent heat release intensity and humidity are calculated based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forecast results. Then, they are used to convert the radar reflectivity observation data into the virtual observation of the temperature and humidity. Finally, these data are continuously assimilated to the initial field of the WRF model using the ensemble Kalman filter to simulate a warm-sector squall line process. The results show that the temperature and humidity in the strong radar echo area are adjusted after the radar reflectivity data are assimilated, and new convective echoes can be excited quickly in a short time. The indirect assimilation of the radar reflectivity data can effectively improve the forecast skills of both the warm-sector squall line and the influence time of the squall line. After the assimilation, the forecast results of the influence time of the squall line on the downstream regions are basically consistent with the observations. At the same time, the forecast skills of the squall line intensity and the surface gust intensity are improved. The forecast results of the experiments with different influence radii are all better than those without radar reflectivity assimilation. When the influence radius is smaller, the improvement lasts longer. When the influence radius is larger, the improvement is more significant in the now-casting period with a shorter duration. The simulation skill of this squall line is high with an influence radius of 25 km. In addition, the assimilation of the virtual observation of both the temperature and humidity can improve the forecast skill of the squall line, especially the virtual observation with the assimilation of the humidity.

Direct Assimilation of Radar Reflectivity Data Using Ensemble Kalman Filter Based on a Two-Moment Microphysics Scheme for the Analysis and Forecast of Typhoon Lekima (2019)

We investigate the impact of directly assimilating radar reflectivity data using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on a double-moment (DM) microphysics parameterization (MP) scheme in GSI-EnKF data assimilation (DA) framework and WRF model for a landfall typhoon Lekima (2019). Observations from a single operational coastal Doppler are quality-controlled and assimilated. Compared with the baseline experiment initialized by GFS analysis, the reflectivity data assimilation experiment (Z-DA) resulted in an obvious improvement in both structural analysis and typhoon forecast skills in terms of intensity, precipitation, and track. Sensitivity experiments were conducted to evaluate the ability of EnKF to update certain state variables considering that the degree of freedom of analytical variables increased with a DM MP scheme. When either the total number concentration or other large-scale state variables that are not directly linked to reflectivity observations via the observation operator are not updated, the tendency of RMSIs and PS to be imbalanced is significantly increased during DA cycles compared to those of Z-DA with updating a full set of state variables, resulting in increased intensity and track forecast errors. These results indicate that the reliable ensemble covariance could handle the underconstraint issue associated with the DM scheme, and helps in obtaining more physically balanced analytical fields.

Radar Reflectivity–Based Model Initialization Using Specified Latent Heating (Radar-LHI) within a Diabatic Digital Filter or Pre-Forecast Integration

Abstract A technique for model initialization using three-dimensional radar reflectivity data has been developed and applied within the NOAA 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) regional forecast systems. This technique enabled the first assimilation of radar reflectivity data for operational NOAA forecast models, critical especially for more accurate short-range prediction of convective storms. For the RAP, the technique uses a diabatic digital filter initialization (DFI) procedure originally deployed to control initial inertial gravity wave noise. Within the forward-model integration portion of diabatic DFI, temperature tendencies obtained from the model cloud/precipitation processes are replaced by specified latent heating–based temperature tendencies derived from the three-dimensional radar reflectivity data, where available. To further refine initial conditions for the convection-allowing HRRR model, a similar procedure is used in the HRRR, but without DFI. Both of these procedures, together called the “Radar-LHI” (latent heating initialization) technique, have been essential for initialization of ongoing precipitation systems, especially convective systems, within all NOAA operational versions of the 13-km RAP and 3-km HRRR models extending through the latest implementation upgrade at NCEP in 2020. Application of the latent heat–derived temperature tendency induces a vertical circulation with low-level convergence and upper-level divergence in precipitation systems. Retrospective tests of the Radar-LHI technique show significant improvement in short-range (0–6 h) precipitation system forecasts, as revealed by reflectivity verification scores. Results presented document the impact on HRRR reflectivity forecasts of the radar reflectivity initialization technique applied to the RAP alone, HRRR alone, and both the RAP and HRRR. Significance Statement The large forecast uncertainty of convective situations, even at short lead times, coupled with the hazardous weather they produce, makes convective storm prediction one of the most significant short-range forecast challenges confronting the operational numerical weather prediction community. Prediction of heavy precipitation events also requires accurate initialization of precipitation systems. An innovative assimilation technique using radar reflectivity data to initialize NOAA operational weather prediction models is described. This technique, which uses latent heating specified from radar reflectivity (and can accommodate lightning data and other convection/precipitation indicators), was first implemented in 2009 at NOAA/NCEP and continues to be used in 2022 in the NCEP-operational RAP and HRRR models, making it a backbone of the NOAA rapidly updated numerical weather prediction capability.

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part I: Motivation and System Description

Abstract The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model with hourly data assimilation that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs in real time at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Implemented operationally at NOAA/NCEP in 2014, the HRRR features 3-km horizontal grid spacing and frequent forecasts (hourly for CONUS and 3-hourly for Alaska). HRRR initialization is designed for optimal short-range forecast skill with a particular focus on the evolution of precipitating systems. Key components of the initialization are radar-reflectivity data assimilation, hybrid ensemble-variational assimilation of conventional weather observations, and a cloud analysis to initialize stratiform cloud layers. From this initial state, HRRR forecasts are produced out to 18 h every hour, and out to 48 h every 6 h, with boundary conditions provided by the Rapid Refresh system. Between 2014 and 2020, HRRR development was focused on reducing model bias errors and improving forecast realism and accuracy. Improved representation of the planetary boundary layer, subgrid-scale clouds, and land surface contributed extensively to overall HRRR improvements. The final version of the HRRR (HRRRv4), implemented in late 2020, also features hybrid data assimilation using flow-dependent covariances from a 3-km, 36-member ensemble (“HRRRDAS”) with explicit convective storms. HRRRv4 also includes prediction of wildfire smoke plumes. The HRRR provides a baseline capability for evaluating NOAA’s next-generation Rapid Refresh Forecast System, now under development. Significance Statement NOAA’s operational hourly updating, convection-allowing model, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), is a key tool for short-range weather forecasting and situational awareness. Improvements in assimilation of weather observations, as well as in physics parameterizations, have led to improvements in simulated radar reflectivity and quantitative precipitation forecasts since the initial implementation of HRRR in September 2014. Other targeted development has focused on improved representation of the diurnal cycle of the planetary boundary layer, resulting in improved near-surface temperature and humidity forecasts. Additional physics and data assimilation changes have led to improved treatment of the development and erosion of low-level clouds, including subgrid-scale clouds. The final version of HRRR features storm-scale ensemble data assimilation and explicit prediction of wildfire smoke plumes.

SWING, The Score-Weighted Improved NowcastinG Algorithm: Description and Application

Because of the ongoing climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events at the global scale is expected to increase, resulting in higher social and economic impacts. Thus, improving the forecast accuracy and the risk communication is a fundamental goal to limit social and economic damages. Both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and radar-based nowcasting systems still have open issues, mainly in terms of precipitation correct time/space localization predictability and rapid forecast accuracy decay, respectively. Trying to overcome these issues, this work aims to present a nowcasting system combining an NWP model (WRF), using a 3 h rapid update cycling 3DVAR assimilation of radar reflectivity data, with the radar-based nowcasting system PhaSt through a blending technique. Moreover, an innovative post-processing algorithm named SWING (Score-Weighted Improved NowcastinG) has been developed in order to take into account the timely and spatial uncertainty in the convective field simulation. The overarching goal is to pave the way for an easy and automatic communication of the heavy rainfall warning derived by the nowcasting procedure. The results obtained applying the SWING algorithm over a case study of 22 days in the fall 2019 season suggest that the algorithm could improve the predictive capability of a traditional deterministic nowcasting forecast system, keeping a useful forecast timing and thus integrating the current forecast procedures. Eventually, the main advantage of the SWING algorithm is also its very high versatility, since it could be used with any meteorological model also in a multi-model forecast approach.

Assimilation of Radar Reflectivity Using a Time‐Lagged Ensemble Based Ensemble Kalman Filter With the “Cloud‐Dependent” Background Error Covariances

AbstractThis study proposes a method for direct assimilation of radar reflectivity in cycled deterministic forecast systems using a time‐lagged ensemble based ensemble Kalman filter with the “cloud‐dependent” background error covariances. With this method, forecasts from multiple deterministic forecast cycles that are initialized at different times but valid at the same time, are collected as a time‐lagged ensemble to compute the background error covariances. An algorithm to compute the specified “cloud‐dependent” background error covariances was devised, in which the vertical background error covariance is computed for each of the “cloud‐feature” bins which are divided according to the column maximum radar reflectivity and cloud top height. The single‐observation experiments and the observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) indicate that the radar reflectivity data assimilation method was able to capture the main thermodynamic and microphysical features of convective clouds and was effective in reducing the spin‐up time of convection, and generating convective cells which were missed in the background. Meanwhile, assimilating “zero‐reflectivity” observations helped suppress spurious convection. The method provided overall more accurate thermodynamic analysis, radar reflectivity and precipitation analysis and forecast of the MCS, while did not significantly increase computational cost, compared to a cloud‐analysis based latent‐heat nudging approach.

Rapid Update with EnVar Direct Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation for the NOAA Regional Convection-Allowing NMMB Model over the CONUS: System Description and Initial Experiment Results

This study first describes the extended Grid-Point Statistical Interpolation analysis system (GSI)-based ensemble-variational data assimilation (DA) system within the North American Mesoscale Rapid Refresh (NAMRR) system for the Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on the B grid (NMMB). Experiments were conducted to examine three critical aspects of data assimilation configuration in this system. Ten retrospective high-impact convective cases during the warm season of 2015–2016 were adopted for testing. A 10-member, 18 h ensemble forecast was launched for each experiment. Specifically, the experiment using horizontal (vertical) localization radii (Lr) of 300 km (0.55-scaled height measured in the nature log of pressure) overall had more skills than that of 500 km (1.1-scaled height) for conventional in-situ observation assimilation. Diagnostics suggest that the higher forecast skills could be attributed to applying smaller Lr in the boundary with large temperature and moisture gradients. For radar DA, the experiment was more skillful with horizontal (vertical) Lr of 15 km (1.1-scaled height) than that of 12 km (0.55-scaled height). Diagnostics suggest that the improved forecasts were achieved by using wider Lr to spread radar observations into unobserved areas more effectively. Slight forecast skill differences between the relaxation inflation factors of 95% and 65% are presented. The impact of varying inflation magnitudes primarily occurred in the upper-level spread.

Development of Convective-Scale Static Background Error Covariance within GSI-Based Hybrid EnVar System for Direct Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation

AbstractA convective-scale static background-error covariance (BEC) matrix is further developed to include the capability of direct reflectivity assimilation and evaluated within the GSI-based three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and hybrid ensemble–variational (EnVar) methods. Specific developments are summarized as follows: 1) Control variables (CVs) are extended to include reflectivity, vertical velocity, and all hydrometeor types. Various horizontal momentum and moisture CV options are included. 2) Cross correlations between all CVs are established. 3) A storm intensity-dependent binning method is adopted to separately calculate static error matrices for clear-air and storms with varying intensities. The resultant static BEC matrices are simultaneously applied at proper locations guided by the observed reflectivity. 4) The EnVar is extended to adaptively incorporate static BECs based on the quality of ensemble covariances. Evaluation and examination of the new static BECs are first performed on the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City supercell. Detailed diagnostics and 3DVar examinations suggest zonal/meridional winds and pseudo–relative humidity are selected as horizontal momentum and moisture CVs for direct reflectivity assimilation, respectively; inclusion of cross correlations favors spin up and maintains the analyzed storms; application of binning improves characteristics and persistence of the simulated storm. Relative to an experiment using the full ensemble BECs (Exp-PureEnVar), incorporating static BECs in hybrid EnVar reduces spinup time and better analyzes reflectivity distributions while the background ensemble is deficient in sampling errors. Compared to both pure 3DVar and Exp-PureEnVar, hybrid EnVar better predicts reflectivity distributions and better maintains a strong mesocyclone. Further examination through the 20 May 2013 Oklahoma supercells confirms these results and additionally demonstrates the effectiveness of adaptive hybridization.

Impact of Radar Reflectivity and Lightning Data Assimilation on the Rainfall Forecast and Predictability of a Summer Convective Thunderstorm in Southern Italy

Heavy and localized summer events are very hard to predict and, at the same time, potentially dangerous for people and properties. This paper focuses on an event occurred on 15 July 2020 in Palermo, the largest city of Sicily, causing about 120 mm of rainfall in 3 h. The aim is to investigate the event predictability and a potential way to improve the precipitation forecast. To reach this aim, lightning (LDA) and radar reflectivity data assimilation (RDA) was applied. LDA was able to trigger deep convection over Palermo, with high precision, whereas the RDA had a key role in the prediction of the amount of rainfall. The simultaneous assimilation of both data sources gave the best results. An alert for a moderate–intense forecast could have been issued one hour and a half before the storm developed over the city, even if predicting only half of the total rainfall. A satisfactory prediction of the amount of rainfall could have been issued at 14:30 UTC, when precipitation was already affecting the city. Although the study is centered on a single event, it highlights the need for rapidly updated forecast cycles with data assimilation at the local scale, for a better prediction of similar events.

Radar reflectivity data assimilation method based on background‐dependent hydrometeor retrieval: Comparison with direct assimilation for real cases

AbstractAssimilating radar reflectivity into NWP models is one of the keys to improve the accuracy of convective‐scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). There are generally two major branches of research in radar reflectivity assimilation: directly assimilating radar reflectivity, and indirectly assimilating reflectivity, i.e. assimilating hydrometeors retrieved from radar reflectivity. In this study, the indirect assimilation method based on background‐dependent hydrometeor retrievals is compared with the direct assimilation method using frequent data assimilation cycles for five real data cases. The retrieved hydrometeors in the indirect assimilation method are first verified against the hydrometeor types obtained from a polarimetric hydrometeor classification method. It is illustrated that the background‐dependent hydrometeor retrieval method can obtain reasonable model‐equivalent hydrometeors from radar reflectivity. The analysis increments for hydrometeors with both radar data assimilation methods show similar patterns but their magnitudes are different. Both quantitative and qualitative evaluations of forecasted composite reflectivities and accumulated precipitation indicate that the indirect assimilation method predicts the location and intensity of the simulated convection more accurately than the direct method. Furthermore, the indirect assimilation method is more efficient, which is valuable in real‐time applications by helping deliver forecasts quickly and thus helping forecasters make more timely warning decisions.

Assimilation of radar reflectivity volumes in a pre‐operational framework

AbstractThe assimilation of radar reflectivity data is of great interest for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the convective scale since these observations are very dense both in space and time and they are related to microphysical prognostic variables. So far, the assimilation of reflectivity in operational frameworks has been limited to derived products, like precipitation rates and humidity profiles. This approach is also adopted at ARPAE‐SIMC, the Hydro‐Meteo‐Climate Structure of the Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia‐Romagna region in Italy, where latent heat nudging (LHN) is employed to assimilate precipitation rates in the COSMO‐2I model, the convection‐permitting version of the regional model developed by the COnsortium for Small‐scale MOdelling (COSMO) which is run operationally to provide high‐resolution forecasts over Italy. However, to fully exploit the information contained in these observations, the whole reflectivity volume should be directly assimilated. Nevertheless, despite several promising studies, its implementation in an operational framework has not yet been achieved. In this study, a set‐up designed to assimilate reflectivities operationally in the COSMO‐2I model through a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) has been evaluated over 37 days in 2018 and performed 303 forecasts. The comparison with the current operational set‐up based on LHN reveals an average improvement in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) up to 7 hr, even if the impact on convective cases is much stronger than that observed in conditions of stratiform precipitation. Moreover, a small but positive impact is noticed for the RMSE of upper‐air variables, while the impact on bias is mixed. Mixed results are also obtained when considering surface variables. In the light of the results of this study, a pre‐operational parallel system in which COSMO‐2I analyses are generated replacing LHN by the direct assimilation of reflectivity volumes was implemented in April 2020.