Price Bubbles Research Articles

Stock Market Bubble- Investigate Cause and Effect of Stock Market Bubbles and Examine How Bubbles can be Identified and Prevented

Stock Market Bubble- Investigate Cause and Effect of Stock Market Bubbles and Examine How Bubbles can be Identified and Prevented

Economic Behavioral Anomalies In Cryptocurrency Transactions During The Covid-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on various aspects of life, including financial markets. The cryptocurrency market, already renowned for its volatility, experienced a surge in activity and significant changes in investor behavior during this period. This research aims to analyze various economic behavioral anomalies that emerged in cryptocurrency transactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research uses a literature study method to identify several dominant behavioral anomalies, such as FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), Herding Behavior, Noise Trading, Overconfidence, and Anchoring Bias. These behavioral anomalies trigger extreme market volatility, asset bubbles, and financial losses for investors. This research highlights the importance of investor education, market regulation, and technology development to minimize the impact of behavioral anomalies and protect investors in the cryptocurrency market.

Price exuberance episodes in private real estate

In this paper, we investigate price exuberance episodes in the main UK commercial real estate sectors – retail, offices and industrials - over the period December 1986–April 2022. Using the Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey Fuller approach of Phillips et al. (2015a,b), we find that episodes of price explosiveness are asynchronous across sectors with only common phase being the period 2003–2007. We also conduct a multivariate probit analysis to identify factors that indicate the occurrence of price exuberance episodes and generate early signals for possible price bubble building. The predictors for price explosiveness differ by sector with more consistent signals obtained from the yield curve for retail and industrials, rent growth for offices and industrials, and inflation for retail and offices. A key implication of this study is that the study of price exuberance and bubbles in private real estate should be sector specific even within the same country.

The Impact of Investor Expectation on the Financial Decision-Making

Unlike traditional finance, behavioral finance challenges the traditional financial theory of investor rationality, emphasizing that investors are not absolutely rational in real life. This perspective provides new insights for understanding and predicting financial markets. This study examines core concepts in behavioral finance, such as loss aversion, market anomalies, momentum effects, reversal effects, endowment effects, and framing effects, and analyzes how they influence investors' financial decisions. These concepts highlight the significant role of human psychology and behavior in shaping financial decisions, thus aiding investors in making more rational choices in complex financial markets. Loss aversion, for instance, suggests that investors are more sensitive to losses than to gains, leading to suboptimal decision-making. Market anomalies, such as price bubbles and crashes, indicate that markets are not always efficient. Momentum effects suggest that past stock performance can predict future trends, while reversal effects point to the tendency of extreme stock performances to revert to the mean. The endowment effect reveals that individuals value their own possessions more highly than similar items they do not own. Lastly, framing effects demonstrate how the presentation of information can influence decision-making. Future research can delve deeper into how the framing effect can be harnessed to improve the design and marketing strategies of financial products, thereby enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of investment decisions. This exploration could lead to more sophisticated financial products and better-informed investors, ultimately contributing to a more stable and efficient financial market.

The comovement of bubbles’ responses to monetary policy shocks

In this paper, we present a two-step methodology designed to elucidate the extent of co-movement in the behavior of asset bubbles across a selected group of developed and emerging economies, with observations extending from the year 2000 onwards. We characterize the behavior of these bubbles, conceptualized as the disparity between fundamental and market values, by examining their responses to monetary policy shocks. Our investigation into their co-movement dynamics post-2000 involves the estimation of a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model that incorporates the reactions of asset bubbles to monetary policy shocks, both in the short term and the long term. Notably, our findings reveal a convergence in short-term responses among these bubbles prior to the onset of the financial crisis. However, as the crisis unfolded, our results indicate a shift towards divergence. Concerning the long-term response of bubbles to monetary policy, divergence was observed before the crisis, but once the crisis had taken hold, there was a noticeable trend towards convergence. An influential idiosyncratic factor was identified for countries like the United States, South Korea, and Japan, impacting both short-term and long-term behavior. Conversely, the long-term behavior of bubbles in most emerging economies appears to be influenced by idiosyncratic factors. Furthermore, our results largely maintain their robustness even when utilizing an alternative measure of monetary policy stance during the period of the zero lower bound. Nevertheless, this secondary analysis suggests heightened volatility in the factors affecting both emerging and advanced markets.

Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles

Entrepreneurship, growth and total factor productivity are larger when asset prices are high and decline during financial crises. We explain these facts using a growth model with financial bubbles in which individuals have heterogeneous wages and returns on productive investment. Heterogeneity separates individuals between savers and entrepreneurs. Savers buy financial assets, which are deposits or a financial bubble. Entrepreneurs incur in a start-up cost and borrow to invest in productive capital. The bubble provides liquidities to credit-constrained entrepreneurs. These liquidities increase investment, growth and entrepreneurship. Finally, the bubble may increase productivity when the return of each entrepreneur’s investment is positively correlated with her previous income.

Behavioral Finance: Investor Psychology and Market Outcomes

Purpose: The general objective of the study was to explore how psychological factors and cognitive biases influence investor decisions and market dynamics. Methodology: The study adopted a desktop research methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library. Findings: The findings reveal that there exists a contextual and methodological gap relating to investor psychology and market outcomes. Preliminary empirical review revealed that psychological factors such as cognitive biases and investor sentiment significantly impacted financial decision-making and market dynamics, leading to anomalies like market bubbles and volatility. It highlighted the need for integrating behavioral insights into financial models to better predict and understand market behavior, emphasizing the importance of financial literacy in mitigating adverse effects of these biases. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The Prospect Theory, Herding Theory and Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) may be used to anchor future studies on behavioural finance. The study recommended further development of behavioral finance models to incorporate psychological factors, and for financial institutions to integrate behavioral insights into their services to guide better investment decisions. It also advised policymakers to design regulations enhancing market transparency and protecting investors from biases, while promoting financial literacy and implementing measures to monitor and mitigate systemic risks from irrational behavior.

Accounting for bubbles: A discussion of Arif and Sul (2024)

A signal that identifies asset pricing bubbles would be valuable so investors could reposition their portfolios to weather the bubble, yet ex ante bubble identification has proven illusory. Arif and Sul (2024) study whether industry-level investment in net operating asset (NOA) accruals is an ex ante accounting-based signal that predicts bubbles. Using industry-level price run-ups across 49 countries, they find that NOA accruals predict a higher likelihood of a future crash, lower future returns, and larger analyst forecast errors, especially following run-up periods. The authors attribute these patterns to sentiment-driven overinvestment. My discussion summarizes the contributions of Arif and Sul's findings to the asset pricing bubbles, behavioral finance, and aggregate accruals literatures. I also outline empirical challenges faced by studies investigating bubbles and recommend approaches to further strengthen inferences. Finally, I propose opportunities for future research to integrate deeper accounting knowledge into bubble research.

Shift in house price estimates during COVID-19 reveals effect of crisis on collective speculation

We exploit a city-level panel comprised of individual house price estimates to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on both small and big real-estate markets in California USA. Descriptive analysis of spot house price estimates, including contemporaneous price uncertainty and 30-day price change for individual properties listed on the online real-estate platform Zillow.com, together facilitate quantifying both the excess valuation and valuation confidence attributable to this global socio-economic shock. Our quasi-experimental pre-/post-COVID-19 design spans several years around 2020 and leverages contemporaneous price estimates of rental properties – i.e., off-market real estate entering the habitation market, just not for purchase and hence free of speculation – as an appropriate counterfactual to properties listed for sale, which are subject to on-market speculation. Combining unit-level matching and multivariate difference-in-difference regression approaches, we obtain consistent estimates regarding the sign and magnitude of excess price growth observed after the pandemic onset. Specifically, our results indicate that properties listed for sale appreciated an additional 1% per month above what would be expected in the absence of the pandemic. This corresponds to an excess annual price growth of roughly 12.7 percentage points, which accounts for more than half of the actual annual price growth in 2021 observed across the studied regions. Simultaneously, uncertainty in price estimates decreased, signaling the irrational confidence characteristic of prior asset bubbles. We explore how these two trends are related to market size, local market supply and borrowing costs, which altogether lend support for the counterintuitive roles of uncertainty and interruptions in decision-making.

Dot-com and AI bubbles: Can data from the past be helpful to match the price bubble euphoria phase using dynamic time warping?

The article investigates the existence of a price bubble in the artificial intelligence market, employing the Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and dynamic time warping methodology. It proposes a method to detect the end of the price bubble euphoria phase, generating an average profit of close to 7 % over 5 days and over 10.5 % over 20 days, with almost 90 % effectiveness. The study found that the AI market experienced a phase of euphoria due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Four companies – META PLATFORMS, WORKDAY, SALESFORCE and NVIDIA CORPORATION – were identified, whose stock prices currently resemble the euphoria phase.

The supply elasticity and housing price bubbles in New South Wales, Australia

AbstractIn this study, we use a supply and demand model to estimate housing supply elasticity in New South Wales Australia based on yearly data for the 126 local government areas from 1991 to 2019, and investigate effects of supply elasticity on responses of housing prices and new constructions to housing price bubbles from 2002 to 2004. In particular, when conducting supply elasticity estimation, we use multi‐factor error structures to address cross‐sectional dependence issues, which is ignored by previous studies. We find that the supply elasticity estimates are statistically significant at the state level (0.36), in the regional coastal area (0.97) and in the regional inland area (0.41 but can be inconsistent and inefficient due to cross‐sectional dependence), while perfectly inelastic in the metropolitan area. Effects of supply elasticity on the market responses to bubbles are largely affected by market heterogeneity such as overall supply elasticity levels and demand degrees. The findings may compensate for the limitations of the theory in Glaeser et al. (2008, J Urban Econ, 64:198–217) and offer potential avenues for future development of the theory. Our results implies that bubbles promote development in elastic areas of the metropolitan market and inelastic areas of the regional coastal market, and that balancing urban and regional development is important for dealing with bubble‐related affordability issues.

How do Asset Bubbles affect Interest rates

Review paper about the correlation of asset bubbles( assets that go above their intrinsic value) and interest rates in a country which could help a crash or recession.

The Asymmetric Effect of Mutual Fund Herding on Price Deviation: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

Mutual funds, as significant participants in financial markets, play a crucial role in the formation of asset pricing. The relationship between herding behavior of mutual funds and mispricing has been a subject of intense debate among scholars. In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric impact of mutual fund herding on price deviation and explore the underlying mechanism. In terms of research design, this study selects relevant data on mutual fund holdings and stock trading in the Chinese A-share market from 2010 to 2023, we examine whether herding behavior leads to mispricing, specifically focusing on the asymmetric effects of herding buying and herding selling on stock price deviation from intrinsic value. This study distinguishes the trading direction of mutual fund herding behavior and separately examines the relationship between herding buying behavior and herding selling behavior with stock price deviation. Our empirical findings reveal that buying herding behavior is linked to positive price deviations from intrinsic value. However, selling herding behavior shows no significant relationship with price deviation. Furthermore, our results provide evidence that the herding buying of mutual funds stimulates similar trading sentiments among other market participants and contributes to the formation of market bubbles, while herding selling prompts counterbalancing trades, mitigating the impact of price deviation.

Analysis of the Potential Economic Bubble Burst in Indonesia (Case Study on Start-Up Companies)

Analysis of the Potential Economic Bubble Burst in Indonesia (Case Study on Start-Up Companies)

Effects of adverse geopolitical risk on price bubbles contagion from European natural gas prices to international energy prices

PurposeThe recent Russia–Ukraine conflict highlights the geopolitical importance of natural gas, especially in Europe. In this light, this study examines the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the spread of price bubbles from European natural gas to international energy prices.Design/methodology/approachThe Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test is employed to detect the occurrence of price bubble episodes while the Dynamic Logit Model is used to examine price bubble contagion between the two markets. Further, a tri-variate VAR model is used to examine the determinants of the price bubble.FindingsThe findings reveal multiple bubble episodes in both European natural gas and international energy prices. Further, evidence of bilateral contagion between European natural gas and the international energy market is found. In addition, the Russia–Ukraine conflict triggers price bubble episodes in both markets. Finally, a counterfactual analysis suggests that the conflict increases the bubble contagion from the European natural gas market to the international energy market by about 40%. These findings imply that the Russia–Ukraine conflict is a significant driver of high upside risks to bubble occurrence and subsequent contagion to both European natural gas and international energy prices.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this study contributes new empirical evidence that the Russian–Ukrainian conflict significantly impacts the spread of price bubbles from the European natural gas market to international energy markets.

Investor emotions and market bubbles

AbstractAsset pricing bubbles are highly emotional market episodes. Despite this, investor emotions are not part of traditional bubble models. We measure the powerful affects influencing investor decisions during speculative market bubbles directly employing textual analysis of media narratives and domain-specific emotion keyword dictionaries and show how understanding investor emotional dynamics helps explain market behavior. Specifically, we focus on the two Chinese stock market bubbles of 2005–2008 and 2014–2016; there is no evidence of investor learning from experience. Despite Chinese media being censored we show it still has strong explanatory power although the independent English language media can provide an additional perspective. Deeper emotions dominate more superficial feelings in information content.

Does accounting information identify bubbles for Fama? Evidence from accruals

Economists have long observed that stock price bubbles are associated with corporate overinvestment. We study the ex-ante identification of bubbles (i.e. stock price booms followed by busts) by examining industry-level investments in net operating asset (NOA) accruals and stock returns for 49 countries around the world. Consistent with overinvestment in operating assets being key to bubble formation, we document five findings: (1) NOA accruals positively forecast the eventual crash of an industry price run-up; (2) NOA accruals negatively forecast stock returns following a run-up; (3) NOA accruals are positively associated with investor sentiment; (4) higher NOA accruals forecast more disappointing earnings relative to analysts’ expectations for run-up industries; and (5) NOA accruals are sharply stronger predictors of crashes, returns and analyst forecast errors following run-ups compared to other periods. Our results provide the first evidence that accounting information identifies stock price bubbles and suggest that financial statements are important for detecting and anticipating industry- and market-level inefficiencies.

소설 「철도원」에 나타난 이항 대립적 구도와 그의미연구

I analyzed the contents of binary confrontational structure in novel 「Railroad Man」 that was written by Asada Jiro had a huge popularity in Japan and Korea, and inferred signification of binary confrontational structure. First, imbalance in development between rural Horomai and urban Beyoro represented necessity of seeking balanced development of the regions. Second, inner conflict and external conflict of Automatsu and the gap between the old and new generations implied that we should promote harmony of personal value and community value for comfortable life of an individual and development of community. Third, contrasting lives of Automatsu and Senji meant that we should recognize and respect persons who contributed to the development of society, and we should think about seriously persons who lived unhappily or were considered the scum of the community. Then the research results indicated the contents of binary confrontational structure were social problems that the Japanese should discuss and mediate to resolve bubble economy and a long term recession. To resolve social problems the Japanese needed to get out of rigid or skewed thinking, figure out confrontational contents in balanced view, and seek coexistence of them.

A simulated electronic market with speculative behaviour and bubble formation

This paper presents an agent-based model of an electronic market with two types of trading agents. One type follows a mean reverting strategy and the other, the speculative trader, tracks the maximum realized return. Our research provides synthetic datasets of the order book (level 3) to study its dynamics under different levels of speculation. Inspired by the GameStop trading frenzy, we study the impact of a trading halt by the market maker on one side of the order book. We have also tested a performance-based limit on leverage, that allows leverage only to profitable traders.

Nonlinear price transmission and asynchronous price bubbles: empirical evidence from China’s agricultural futures and spot markets

ABSTRACT Previous studies on commodity price bubbles mainly focused on futures markets and ignored the performance of spot markets. Using the price data for corn and soybeans in China, this study identifies the exact bubble dates for the futures and spot markets, and finds asynchronous price bubbles between these two markets. Bubbles are more frequent for commodity spot prices, while the corresponding futures prices still dominate the process of price discovery. Further analysis reveals that, the lack of (immediate) linear transmission between the cointegrated prices may have inhibited bubble synchronization, and caused more spot price bubbles. The nonlinear transmission effects between the futures and spot prices suggest the existence of speculative storage and market power. This may further explain why spot price bubbles cannot be arbitraged away.