Damage To Assets Research Articles

Process resilience analysis based data-driven maintenance optimization: Application to cooling tower operations

In a process plant system, safe and reliable operations are highly sensitive to utilities such as power, steam, cooling water, nitrogen, and instrument air. These play an important role or act as safety barriers. This is because a disturbance in their supply is likely to affect process operations downstream, may reduce the production efficiency, and may lead to a sudden shutdown or contribute to an unsafe condition. The focus of this paper is to introduce and evaluate a model for survival of a process system under upset conditions using the Process Resilience Analysis Framework (PRAF). Resilience metrics within a data-driven and model-based optimization approach using Bayesian regression are employed integrating both technical (process parameter variations) and social (human and organizational) factors. Based on an optimization objective function accounting for the overall system performance in terms of energy consumption, maintenance costs, safety impact, environmental impact, asset damage, and production loss, the proposed methodology aims to determine the optimal maintenance policy for optimal and safer plant operations. The implementation of the survival model within the PRAF is demonstrated on a cooling tower operation example problem, where optimal operation and maintenance (preventive, corrective, and predictive) strategies are determined based on trade-off analysis of process revenue, safety impact, and maintenance costs.

Increasing communities’ resilience to disasters: An impact-based approach

The conventional processes of science, and the incorporation of science into policy and practice, appear not to be resulting in improved disaster reduction solutions for communities, despite intense research into hazards and risk. Resilience to disasters is increased when the societal impacts of disasters are reduced. On this basis, the contribution that Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) can make to Disaster Impact Reduction (DIR) is assessed, and it is demonstrated that reducing event risk by reducing event probability only reliably reduces community disaster impacts for events that occur frequently. Such events do not fit the UNISDR definition of a disaster. Therefore, DRR cannot reliably improve DIR. Instead, DIR can be addressed directly by way of community adaptation, based on carefully selected impact scenarios derived by community-expert-official collaborations considering a broad range of event and asset damage scenarios. Probabilistic risk is a useful tool in insurance and re-insurance, and possibly in national policy-making, but such national policies are likely to be undermined by inevitable failures of risk-based approaches at the local level. This work clarifies the common usage of “risk” as meaning either impact, or impact x probability.

Determining optimal preventive maintenance interval for component of Well Barrier Element in an Oil & Gas Company

An oil and gas company has 2,268 oil and gas wells. Well Barrier Element (WBE) is installed in a well to protect human, prevent asset damage and minimize harm to the environment. The primary WBE component is Surface Controlled Subsurface Safety Valve (SCSSV). The secondary WBE component is Christmas Tree Valves that consist of four valves i.e. Lower Master Valve (LMV), Upper Master Valve (UMV), Swab Valve (SV) and Wing Valve (WV). Current practice on WBE Preventive Maintenance (PM) program is conducted by considering the suggested schedule as stated on manual. Corrective Maintenance (CM) program is conducted when the component fails unexpectedly. Both PM and CM need cost and may cause production loss. This paper attempts to analyze the failure data and reliability based on historical data. Optimal PM interval is determined in order to minimize the total cost of maintenance per unit time. The optimal PM interval for SCSSV is 730 days, LMV is 985 days, UMV is 910 days, SV is 900 days and WV is 780 days. In average of all components, the cost reduction by implementing the suggested interval is 52%, while the reliability is improved by 4% and the availability is increased by 5%.

Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

Abstract. A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

Computable general equilibrium modelling of economic impacts from volcanic event scenarios at regional and national scale, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

The economic impacts of volcanism extend well beyond the direct costs of loss of life and asset damage. This paper presents one of the first attempts to assess the economic consequences of disruption associated with volcanic impacts at a range of temporal and spatial scales using multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Based on the last decade of volcanic research findings at Mt. Taranaki, three volcanic event scenarios (Tahurangi, Inglewood and Opua) differentiated by critical physical thresholds were generated. In turn, the corresponding disruption economic impacts were calculated for each scenario. Under the Tahurangi scenario (annual probability of 0.01–0.02), a small-scale explosive (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2–3) and dome forming eruption, the economic impacts were negligible with complete economic recovery experienced within a year. The larger Inglewood sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption scenario event (VEI > 4, annualised probability of ~ 0.003) produced significant impacts on the Taranaki region economy of $207 million (representing ~ 4.0% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) 1 year after the event, 2007 New Zealand dollars), that will take around 5 years to recover. The Opua scenario, the largest magnitude volcanic hazard modelled, is a major flank collapse and debris avalanche event with an annual probability of 0.00018. The associated economic impacts of this scenario were $397 million (representing ~ 7.7% of regional GDP 1 year after the event) with the Taranaki region economy suffering permanent structural changes. Our dynamic analysis illustrates that different economic impacts play out at different stages in a volcanic crisis. We also discuss the key strengths and weaknesses of our modelling along with potential extensions.

Informing Ex Ante Event Studies with Macro-Econometric Evidence on the Structural and Policy Impacts of Terrorism.

Economic consequence analysis is one of many inputs to terrorism contingency planning. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are being used more frequently in these analyses, in part because of their capacity to accommodate high levels of event-specific detail. In modeling the potential economic effects of a hypothetical terrorist event, two broad sets of shocks are required: (1) physical impacts on observable variables (e.g., asset damage); (2) behavioral impacts on unobservable variables (e.g., investor uncertainty). Assembling shocks describing the physical impacts of a terrorist incident is relatively straightforward, since estimates are either readily available or plausibly inferred. However, assembling shocks describing behavioral impacts is more difficult. Values for behavioral variables (e.g., required rates of return) are typically inferred or estimated by indirect means. Generally, this has been achieved via reference to extraneous literature or ex ante surveys. This article explores a new method. We elucidate the magnitude of CGE-relevant structural shifts implicit in econometric evidence on terrorist incidents, with a view to informing future ex ante event assessments. Ex post econometric studies of terrorism by Blomberg etal. yield macro econometric equations that describe the response of observable economic variables (e.g., GDP growth) to terrorist incidents. We use these equations to determine estimates for relevant (unobservable) structural and policy variables impacted by terrorist incidents, using a CGE model of the United States. This allows us to: (i) compare values for these shifts with input assumptions in earlier ex ante CGE studies; and (ii) discuss how future ex ante studies can be informed by our analysis.

A real-time man-in-loop threat evaluation and resource assignment in defense

Efficient weapon threat assignment reflects military proficiency and requires prompt decision while managing the available resources. An important problem which commanders/decision makers face is to optimally utilize the resources in complex and time constraints situations. Several solutions have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, an innovative approach is proposed for threat evaluation and weapon assignment (TEWA) by following 3-dimensional stable marriage algorithm (3-D SMA). This proposed model incorporates new parameters and constraints i.e. supply chain, inventory of resources and multiple threats-weapons assignments that outperforms the previous techniques. This suggested model is based on threat perception followed by an integration of parametric based automatic threat evaluation technique for further weapon scheduling and assignment problem keeping in view that the threat with greater threat index has higher priority to be intercepted and weapons’ kill probability. The experimental section shows that our proposed approach has greatly improved in comparison with other approaches. The results showed that the threat neutralization is improved up to 25% reducing the usage of ammunition till 31.1%. The damage of assets abridged to 28.5% in comparison with existing approaches. The proposed approach elucidates that TEWA is an efficient real-time threat perception and optimal multi-threat scheduling problem at weapons’ resolution. It is a three-stage process, where the first stage perceives the threat, the second stage works on threat evaluation and the final stage focuses on weapon scheduling and assignment problem. The addition of new parameters and constraints in the new proposed model makes it a unique approach in which more accurate results, in neutralizing the threats, are obtained with less use of ammunition and damage of assets that makes TEWA more effective and efficient tool for optimum decision making in time critical situations.

Selection of optimal pixel resolution for landslide susceptibility analysis within the Bukit Antarabangsa, Kuala Lumpur, by using image processing and multivariate statistical tools

Landslides are considered as one of the natural hazards responsible for casualties, damage of assets, and infrastructures. In many situations, collection of field data from remote places is difficult due to inaccessibility of landslide area. This paper examines landslide susceptibility in the Bukit Antarabangsa, Kuala Lumpur, to ease geographical studies, using image processing and multivariate statistical tools by reviewing the digital images using remote-sensing technique without any physical survey. We considered different pixel resolutions and report the effectiveness of using factor analysis, principal component analysis, linear discriminant analysis, and their hybridization. Eight types of databases for heavy, medium, and no landslide were created. The modeling works were carried out at 2 × 2, 4 × 4, 8 × 8, 16 × 16, 32 × 32, 64 × 64, 128 × 128, and 256 × 256 pixel resolutions. Results indicate 2 × 2 was optimal in both heavy and medium while 8 × 8 found to be ideal for no landslide region. Performance at different pixel resolutions was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and average success of 87.36% was found. This simple yet robust system holds great potential for saving lives.

Inglês

Epilepsy is a relatively common condition in the general population and one of the diseases most oftentreated by neurology. The epileptic disorder is frequent and affects around 1-3% of the world population. Work occupies acentral place in the dynamics of modern society. The cultural controls unfavorable to the social adjustment of the epileptic(Jones, 1965), make it difficult for him to enter the labor market, aggravated by the growing level of unemployment. Theindividual usually has no work problems; But the mere fact of the existence of epilepsy can influence functional performancefor a number of reasons, there are restrictions on functions considered to be risky, involving danger of accidents to theepileptic, third parties or damage of valuable material assets. A historical view about epilepsy allows us to verify the multiplicityof causes that, at their heart, lead to various forms of exclusion and social control of epileptics. In this sense, the need arises toobserve the identification in the work spaces in relation to the worker with epilepsy and which psychosocial aspects emergefrom the objective and subjective identity. It is intended to present occupational status of a sample of epileptic individuals, andto identify the factors that limit their access to the labor market, taking into account the intrinsic and extrinsic factors.

How to effectively manage production facility low-temperature exposure risk

A significant risk with any oil and gas production facility is equipment exposure to low temperature fluids, which can lead to brittle fracture, loss of hydrocarbon containment and ignition, with potential consequences including multiple fatalities, major asset damage, production deferment and profound operator reputational harm. Due to the nature of the initiating low-temperature events, which often occur as a result of a sequence of control system, hardware or operational failures, these issues are not always adequately addressed in facility design and operation, which can lead to unacceptable and potentially unacknowledged asset risk exposure. This is especially true in a cost-constrained environment where economic and schedule pressures can drive a leaner approach whereby, for example, traditional design margins are challenged. Drawing on S2V Consulting’s extensive expertise in this area, this technical paper outlines examples of typical low-temperature exposure mechanisms and key facility risk areas. It highlights why there can be failures in mitigating these risks, both during initial facility design and throughout subsequent operating phase evolution, discusses analytical methods or tools and highlights potential mitigation measures. A structured evaluation process developed by S2V Consulting is presented that can be adopted to effectively safeguard facilities by ensuring these risks are identified, screened, prioritised and managed to ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable). Finally, case studies are presented to provide context to the issue and demonstrate the effective application of the evaluation process to several current Australian production facilities.

Performing A Regional Transportation Asset Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment

Abstract Extreme weather is creating a growing challenge for disaster managers and transportation planners. The Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) recently completed a study sponsored in part by the U.S. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to conduct an assessment of critical transportation assets in the state that are most vulnerable to plausible extreme weather events out to 2040. This vulnerability assessment required building an asset inventory, determining which of those assets should be considered critical, identifying various types of extreme weather events to which the critical assets may be exposed, and quantifying the potential asset damage and system disruption for the selected extreme weather event types and critical asset combinations. Combining this information then provided an overall vulnerability rating for the critical transportation assets in the state. The Tennessee study is unique in that it represents an inland region whose climate and topography expose the state to a variety of extreme weather events, and which are not dominated by concerns associated with sea level rise and storm surge. Moreover, all significant passenger and freight transport modes and support facilities were considered across a large region. As a result, the vulnerability assessment serves as an important screening tool to help stakeholders better understand where to focus their resources as they consider potential adaptation measures, and as a catalyst for facilitating a more proactive approach to building transportation resilience to extreme weather events. The methodology and tools developed in the study are also transferable to other regions attempting to better understand the vulnerabilities of their transportation infrastructure to climate change and extreme weather. This paper describes the study approach and findings, including a discussion of steps being taken to incorporate the study results into agency operations and planning.

The Typhoon 'Yolanda' Experience of Leyte, Philippines and the Recovery Strategy of Eastern Visayas State University (EVSU)

More than the great casualty incidence, Typhoon “Yolanda” rendered nearly 200 thousand families totally homeless and brought damage to both public and private resources and assets resulting to infrastructure gridlocks and economic setbacks. The main objective of Leyte’s Rehabilitation and Recovery Plan is to bring back the economic and social conditions of the people, at least, at pre-typhoon level and a higher level of disaster resiliency. The sectors include outputs on infrastructure and utilities, housing, health facilities, services, livelihood assistance in agriculture and marginal sectors, and employment opportunities, and support to social welfare services and the environmental, gender and development and the overall poverty alleviation cross cutting themes. For Eastern Visayas State University, it needs at least $18 million to finance mostly the construction of temporary shelter/classrooms, infrastructure restoration/repairs in all campuses, structural retrofitting, equipment procurement and debris waste materials management. The proposed facilities will entail the integration of disaster-resilient character, with a focus on the functionality, aesthetics, environment-friendly and sustainability of designs.

Design and Implementation of Microcontroller based Autonomous Wireless Sensor Network for Predicting and Forecasting of Fire Accident in a Multi-Store Building

is the most important issue to rescue the lives of people and damage of assets. To achieve this goal, a fire accident existence predictor which also avoids hazard is crucial. The system is sensitive to temperature and pressure above the threshold values thereby produces different kinds of signals to stimulate that a fire may take place in the multi-store building at some time and location. In this paper, it has been developed a prototype of an autonomous wireless sensor network predicting and forecasting fire accident in a multi-store building. This prototype is a low cost, efficient and portable. It also is capable of avoiding the fire accident. The system displays when and where the event takes place and gives alarm signals in the form of visual, audible and SMS on LEDs and LCD, buzzer and user mobile phones respectively.

Investigating the Properties of Fireproofing Materials for an Advanced Design of Equipment Protection

Fire scenarios in process industry have a high potential to cause severe asset damage. Fireproofing is a consolidated technique for passive fire protection for units and supporting structures. Since several materials are available for passive fire protection, it is important to choose the best solution for the protected equipment and critical fire scenarios. Current practice in rating fireproofing materials does not provide sufficient information about the protection granted to process equipment: for example, the ‘time-to-failure’ of pressurized vessels protected by fireproofing materials cannot be predicted from the results of standardized fire tests. This study investigates the key properties (e.g. density, geometrical structure, thermal degradation and thermal conductivity) of representative fireproofing materials, in order to better understand the elements underlying the actual protection performance. An experimental activity was focused on the definition of fundamental models to describe the thermo-physical properties of the materials. The investigation cast the foundations of a better understanding of the dynamics underlying the effective design for passive fire protection, identifying the criticalities and limits of the alternative fireproofing options. The changes in the physical properties of materials during fire exposure were confirmed to play a major role on the protection performance. Such effects could not be accounted for complex geometries by conventional simplified approaches alone: thus, the proposed approach paves the way for a safer and more cost effective design of passive fire protection systems.

CLOSE-RANGE PHOTOGRAMMETRY ENABLES DOCUMENTATION OF ENVIRONMENT-INDUCED DEFORMATION OF ARCHITECTURAL HERITAGE

Deformation, damage and permanent loss of heritage assets due to various physical and environmental factors has always been a major problem. As the availability of funds for conservation and restoration is limited, the digital documentation of heritage objects and monitoring of environment-induced deformations are increasingly important for cultural heritage preservation. Our study elucidates developments in the digital image capturing and processing for recording architectural heritage objects focusing on the digital camera calibration, close-range imaging, and photogrammetric modelling of complex structures using image matching techniques. A particular consideration in this paper is given to the ortho-photographic image compiling and accuracy assessment procedure. The practicality of the methodology is demonstrated by applying photogrammetric system PhotoMod for documentation of decorative elements in Uzutrakis manor, a national heritage site in Trakai, Lithuania.

Coastal risk assessment of a micro-tidal littoral plain in response to sea level rise

This paper illustrates an index-based coastal risk assessment that was performed on a micro-tidal alluvial plain taking into account the relative sea level rise (RSLR) for the evaluation of coastal vulnerability and exposure. This process took into account both the inundation of inshore land and the beach retreat due to storm surge, calculated on the basis of geomorphological data (bathymetry, sedimentology and beach width) and wave climate. The evaluation process was conceived with reference to a low and high hazard, associated with a wave storm with 1 year and 50 years return period. For the latter case, the response to RSLR was calculated taking into account both isostatic response and ice cap melting due to global warming, while the vertical land movement was assessed taking into account the different its rates in the northern and southern coastal area. The exposure and the damage of the coastal assets were evaluated with a simplified conceptual framework, which uses land cover data and a statistical population dataset.The risk assessment procedure was applied to Sele coastal plain, which involves numerous properties and important infrastructures, and is strongly susceptible to marine inundations. A sensitivity analysis of the vulnerability and the risk relative to different hazards and to RSLR was performed. Moreover, the final risk assessment classification was validated with a conceptual framework based on the observed damage ranking related to the tested coastal area.The obtained results showed that the northern high density urban areas were characterized by the highest risk, followed by some central areas with strong localized erosive focus. On the contrary, the southern zones, with wider beaches and almost intact dunes, were characterized by the lowest risk level. The results of this study were used for the development of a coastal protection project which, in fact, provided a different scheme for the coastline northwards and southwards of the Sele river mouth, according to the different risk ranking established.

PREDICITON OF INUNDATION DISASTER DUE TO STORM SURGE UNDER GLOBAL WARMING

This study clarifies the characteristics of the disaster risks induced under the scenarios of global warming. In this study, the sea level rise and typhoon intensity based on the scenarios of A1FI and A1B produced by IPCC 4th Assessment Report are considered for the conditions of storm surge disaster in future climate. They are predicted for the target years of 2040 and 2060 as the middle term as well as of 2100 as the long term target. On these conditions of sea level and typhoon intensity, a newest model of storm surge inundation is employed for estimation of inundation area and asset damage. in the coastal and hinterland area in the Ise Bay. Several disaster risks induced by storm surge are estimated quantitatively.

Effects of livelihood strategies on mangrove-forest resource

Purpose – The cumulative effects of climate change exacerbate interruption of social-ecological system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the consumption smoothing along with other socioeconomic parameters of households affects the common pool resource base of a forest in an economic depression resulted from climate change triggered disasters. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is a field level study of Koyra sub-district in the Southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. Several parameters namely climatic trends and events, damage pattern suffered by households, change in land ownership and occupation pattern and consumption dependency pattern were considered. Methods used for data collection were household questionnaire survey and focus group discussions in the study area. Findings – Both the intensity and frequency of climate change led catastrophes are found higher in the study area resulting damage of assets and capital goods of households. The average annual disaster damage borne by per household is found US$177. Over the last two decades 8.21 per cent households become landless. During same time span more than 25 per cent households switched from cropping to other non-agricultural occupations and more than 26 per cent households depend on forest resource for their consumption smoothing. Originality/value – The paper provides insights how climate change led disasters induce the households to depend on the resource from the mangrove forest Sundarbans for their livelihood earning as well as consumption smoothing.

The Assessment of Damages to Scientific Building: The Case of the “Science Centre” Museum in Naples, Italy

The present paper presents the results of a study on the assessment of the damages caused by the arson that in March 2013 severely damaged the building of the "Science Centre" museum located in the western part of the city of Naples. The case is contextualized in the broader thematic of the evaluation of damages caused by intentional events to real estate assets. The peculiarity of the case under analysis appears particularly interesting both for the extend of damages caused by the fire and the methodological approach to be adopted for the “quantum” determination. The model implemented is based on the cost approach criterion, considering the physical and technological depreciation in the “status quo ante” the event. In particular, we will test a “functional component” approach to determine the depreciation function for each component due to the specificity of the scientific building under analysis. The results of the study confirmed that the proposed approach appears to be adequate to estimate the damage to the real estate assets, managing to capture the different components that contribute to determining the market value of the property at hand.

Dynamics of disaster-induced risk in southwestern coastal Bangladesh: an analysis on tropical Cyclone Aila 2009

The present article explores the dynamics of disaster-induced risk resulted from tropical Cyclone Aila that struck southwestern coastal residents on May 25, 2009, causing 190 deaths and affecting over 3.9 million with 243,000 houses and destroying 77,000 acres of farmland. This study assesses disaster risk by using basic pseudo-equation expressed as Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability, and explores the influences of various socioeconomic, environmental, institutional and geographical factors on escalating disaster risk. Following stratified purposive sampling techniques, a total of fourteen focus group discussions were conducted at three villages of Padma Pukur union in Satkhira District, from April to August in 2010. Vulnerability to disaster risk was assessed by using a short list of twenty predominant factors in terms of five dimensions, which reveals a strong relationship with sensitivity to climatic hazards. And the perception to hazard cyclone was measured by evaluating eight foremost characteristics that provide a robust insight and social view of affected residents to a physical event. The findings suggest that intensity, likelihood, speed of onset, familiarity and consequences of Cyclone Aila were regarded as significant hazard characteristics to the participants. This study explores that affected people had moderate ability to easily reduce the risks of hazard event. Findings further suggest that extreme weather, disaster-prone location, insufficient public services, high salinity, damage of biodiversity, loss of human lives and animals, shattering livelihood options, and damage of assets and infrastructures were considered as predominant factors of vulnerability. Finally, this study develops a disaster crunch model (DCM) based on the idea of Pressure and Release (PAR) model of vulnerability, which investigates root causes, dynamic pressures and unsafe conditions of vulnerability, and various elements at disaster risk.