Risk Assessment Of Transmission Research Articles

Sensor-Based Fuzzy Inference of COVID-19 Transmission Risk in Cruise Ships.

Cruise ships are densely populated ecosystems where infectious diseases can spread rapidly. Hence, early detection of infected individuals and risk assessment (RA) of the disease transmissibility are critical. Recent studies have investigated the long-term assessment of transmission risk on cruise ships; however, short-term approaches are limited by data unavailability. To this end, this work proposes a novel short-term knowledge-based method for RA of disease transmission based on fuzzy rules. These rules are constructed using knowledge elicited from domain experts. In contrast to previous approaches, the proposed method considers data captured by several sensors and the ship information system, according to a recently proposed smart ship design. Evaluation with agent-based simulations confirms the effectiveness of the proposed method across various cases.

Distribution and seasonal fluctuation of visceral leishmaniasis vectors sandflie in Lüliang City of Shanxi Province in 2023

To investigate the distribution and seasonal fluctuations of visceral leishmaniasis vectors sandflies in Lüliang City, Shanxi Province, so as to provide insights into assessment of the visceral leishmaniasis transmission risk and formulation of visceral leishmaniasis control measures. A total of 12 natural villages were sampled from Shilou County, Lishi District, Lanxian County, Linxian County and Wenshui County in Lüliang City, Shanxi Province from June to September, 2023, and sandflies were captured using light traps from 7 breeding habitats, including farmers' houses, sheep pens, cattle pens, chicken coops, pig pens, mule and horse pens, and loess-cave dwellings. Following morphological identification of the sandfly species, the distribution of sandflies and the seasonal fluctuations of the sandfly density were analyzed. In addition, the Leishmania was detected in sandflies using a real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR assay. A total of 2 831 sandflies were captured with 156 light traps in Lüliang City from June to September, 2023, including 2 638 female sandflies (93.18%) and 193 male sandflies (6.82%), and the average density was 16.91 sandflies/(light-night). The seasonal fluctuations of the sandfly density all appeared a unimodal distribution in all survey sites, and the sandfly density peaked in July and then declined rapidly. Among all types of breeding habitats, the greatest sandfly density was found in sheep pens [39.04 sandflies/(light-night)]. In addition, 4.08% (2/49) of the sandfly samples were tested positive for Leishmania nucleic acid as revealed by the real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR assay. Sandflies were widely distributed in Lüliang City, Shanxi Province in 2023, and the peak of the sandfly density was observed in July, which had a visceral leishmaniasis transmission risk. Intensified surveillance of visceral leishmaniasis and sandfly vectors is required and targeted vector control is recommended.

Assessment of airborne viral transmission risks in a large-scale building using onsite measurements and CFD method

Screening patients for potential respiratory infections through nucleic acid sampling was a critical non-pharmacologic intervention during a respiratory infectious disease pandemic. Evaluating the cross-infection risk of crowded activities conducted indoors is necessary. We conducted a field study of this event in a large-scale stadium and measured the variation in CO2 concentrations. We conducted simulations on the stadium's flow field, CO2 and N2O concentration distribution using the CFD method, which was validated by the on-site measured data. We simulated the diffusion of virus aerosols exhaled by the sampled individuals under an all-fresh and primary return air system, respectively. It was found that space morphology and airflow pattern are the main factors influencing the concentration distribution of human exhaled contaminants. Primary return air systems can reduce the infection risk for sampled individuals by the filtration system and improve the airflow pattern. With the ratio of fresh air to return air of 1.2, the primary return air systems with 70 %, 85 %, and 95 % filtration levels can reduce the infection risk by an average of 54.5 %, 58.3 %, and 62.1 %, respectively, compared to all-fresh air system. It is necessary to optimize the processes and queue setups for nucleic acid sampling activities in the room based on the room airflow characteristics and the return air system using an efficient filtration system.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Wind-Supported Transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus to Dutch Poultry Farms via Fecal Particles from Infected Wild Birds in the Environment.

A quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability that the aerosolization of fecal droppings from wild birds in the vicinity of poultry farms would result in the infection of indoor-housed poultry with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) in the Netherlands. Model input parameters were sourced from the scientific literature and experimental data. The availability of data was diverse across input parameters, and especially parameters on the aerosolization of fecal droppings, survival of HPAIv and dispersal of aerosols were uncertain. Model results indicated that the daily probability of infection of a single poultry farm is very low, with a median value of 7.5 × 10-9. Accounting for the total number of poultry farms and the length of the bird-flu season, the median overall probability of at least one HPAIv-infected poultry farm during the bird-flu season is 2.2 × 10-3 (approximately once every 455 years). This is an overall estimate, averaged over different farm types, virus strains and wild bird species, and results indicate that uncertainty is relatively high. Based on these model results, we conclude that it is unlikely that this introduction route plays an important role in the occurrence of HPAIv outbreaks in indoor-housed poultry.

Temporal dynamics and persistence of resistance genes to broad spectrum antibiotics in an urban community

The constantly evolving and growing global health crisis, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), endangers progress in medicine, food production, and life expectancy. Limited data on population-level prevalence, including seasonal and temporal variations, hampers accurate risk assessment for AMR transmission, despite its paramount importance on both global and national fronts. In this study, we used quantitative real-time PCR (q-PCR) to analyze 123 antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and 13 mobile genetic elements (MGEs) in wastewater of a selected urban community. Sampling was conducted monthly over a 5-month period (December 2021–April 2022) to assess resistance diversity, temporal dynamics, co-abundance of ARGs, MGEs, and resistance mechanisms. Approximately 50% of the tested ARG subtypes were consistently detected in all months, with frequency ranging from 52 to 61% with maximum absolute abundance in the winter months (December and January). In co-abundance analysis, specific genes were clustered into modules, highlighting shared distribution patterns and functional associations among the ARGs and MGEs. Detected clinically significant genes (ndm-1 and cfiA) and other variants (blaoxy, aph, aacC, tet-35, tet M, tet-32) are capable of imparting resistance to 3rd and 4th generation (gen) β-lactam, aminoglycoside, tetracycline, and multidrug classes. These contribute significantly to core/persistent resistance. This study deepens our comprehension of temporal/seasonal fluctuations in ARG and MGE distribution, providing valuable evidence to guide AMR control policies and promote responsible antibiotic/antimicrobial use for preserving effectiveness.

Molecular tracing of Biomphalaria straminea in China

To investigate the origin of Biomphalaria straminea in China, so as to provide insights into assessment of schistosomiasis mansoni transmission risk and B. straminea control. Guanlan River, Dasha River, Shenzhen Reservoir, upper and lower reaches of Kuiyong River, and Xinzhen River in Shenzhen, China, were selected as sampling sites. Ten Biomphalaria samples were collected from each site, and genomic DNA was extracted from Biomphalaria samples. DNA samples were obtained from 15 B. straminea sampled from 5 sampling sites in Minas Gerais State, Pará State, Federal District, Pernambuco State, and Sao Paulo State in Brazil, South America. Cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) and mitochondrial 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA) genes were sampled using the above DNA templates, and the amplified products were sequenced. The COI and 16S rRNA gene sequences were downloaded from GenBank, and the sampling sites were acquired. All COI and 16S rRNA gene sequences were aligned and evolutionary trees of B. straminea were created based on COI and 16S rRNA gene sequences to identify the genetic similarity and evolutionary relationship between B. straminea samples from China and South America. A total of 60 COI gene sequences with a length of 529 bp and 3 haplotypes were obtained from B. straminea sampled from China. There were 165 COI gene sequences of B. straminea retrieved from GenBank, and following alignment with the above 60 gene sequences, a total of 33 haplotypes were obtained. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the three haplotypes of B. straminea from China were clustered into one clade, among which the haplotype China11 and three B. straminea samples from Brazil retrieved from GenBank belonged to the same haplotype. Geographical evolution analysis showed that the B. straminea samples from three sampling sites along eastern coasts of Brazil had the same haplotype with China11, and B. straminea samples from other two sampling sites were closely, genetically related to China11. A total of 60 16S rDNA gene sequences with approximately 322 bp in length were amplified from B. straminea in China, with 2 haplotypes identified. A total of 70 16S rDNA gene sequences of B. straminea were captured from GenBank. Phylogenetic analysis showed that Biomphalaria snails collected from China were clustered into a clade, and the haplotype China64 and the haplotype 229BS from Brazil shared the same haplotype. The 49 16S rDNA gene sequences of B. straminea from 25 sampling sites in southern Brazil, which were captured from GenBank, were included in the present analysis, and the B. straminea from 3 sampling sites shared the same haplotype with China64 in China. Geographical evolution analysis based on COI and 16S rRNA gene sequences showed that B. straminea sampled from eastern coastal areas of Brazil shared the same haplotypes in two gene fragment sequences with Biomphalaria snails collected from China. The Biomphalaria snails in China are characterized as B. straminea, which have a low genetic diversity. The Biomphalaria snails in China have a high genetic similarity with B. straminea sampled from eastern coastal areas of Brazil, which may have originated from the eastern coastal areas of Brazil.

Circulation of Trypanosoma cruzi in triatomines and Didelphis sp. in urban areas: Transmission risk assessment in the Metropolitan Region

The presence of Trypanosoma cruzi vectors in urban areas has been frequent, with colonization of homes and associated with reservoir animals that increase risk to humans, with simultaneous circulation of vectors and T. cruzi. The study aimed to describe the circulation of triatomines and T. cruzi in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, as well as evaluate risk situations. For analysis purposes, the triatomine notification information from January 2016 to July 2023 was used. While for Didelphis sp. collection with the aid of traps, notification information used was from 2019 to 2023. Information about triatomines came from spontaneous demand by the population and notification services were carried out by state field teams following defined protocols. 202 notifications were received with the capture of 448 triatomines. The positivity for T. cruzi observed was 60.5%. Regarding Didelphis sp., 416 animals were collected, 5.3% of which were positive for T. cruzi. There was overlapping areas of presence of infected triatomines and Didelphis sp., whose Discrete Typing Unit (DTU) was T. cruzi I. This work indicates the presence of infected vectors in urban areas, and the presence of a wild cycle of T. cruzi in didelphiids, reaffirming the need for and importance of vector surveillance work, through actions that can prevent the transmission of Chagas disease.

Risk assessment of influenza transmission between workers and pigs on US indoor hog growing units

On pig farms ample opportunity exists for pig-to-human and human-to-pig (cross-species) influenza transmission. The purpose of this study was to assess the risks of cross-species influenza transmission within an indoor pig grower unit in the United States and to prioritize data gaps. Using the World Organization for Animal Health risk assessment framework we evaluated influenza transmission across two risk pathways: 1. What is the likelihood that based on current conditions on a single typical hog grower-finisher facility in the Midwest (US), during a single production cycle, at least one hog becomes infected with an influenza virus associated with swine (either H1N1, H3N2, or H1N2) [step 1a] and that at least one worker becomes infected as a result [step 1b] and that the worker develops symptoms [step 1c]? And 2. What is the likelihood that, based on current conditions on a single typical hog grower-finisher facility in the Midwest (US), during a single production cycle, at least one worker becomes infected with an influenza virus associated with people (either H1N1, H3N2, or H1N2) [step 2a] and that at least one pig becomes infected as a result [step 2b] and that the pig(s) develop(s) symptoms [step 2c]?Semi-quantitative probability and uncertainty assessments were based on literature review including passive and active influenza surveillance data. We assumed a typical pig-grower farm has capacity for 4,000 pigs, two workers, and minimal influenza control measures. Probability and uncertainty categories were assessed for each risk step and the combined risk pathway.The combined risk assessment for risk pathway one was estimated to be Very Low for H1N1 and H1N2 with an overall High level of uncertainty. The combined risk assessment for risk pathway two was estimated to be Extremely Low for H1N1 and H3N2 with a High degree of uncertainty. Scenario analyses in which influenza control measures were assumed to be implemented separately (implementing vaccinating sows, mass vaccinating incoming pigs or improved personal protective equipment adherence) showed no reduction in the combined risk category. When implementing three influenza control methods altogether, the combined risk could be reduced to Extremely Low for risk pathway one and remained Extremely Low for risk pathway two. This work highlights that multiple influenza control methods are needed to reduce the risks of inter-species influenza transmission on swine farms.

Advanced risk assessment framework for land subsidence impacts on transmission towers in salt lake region

To ensure the continuous transmission of clean energy for electricity, transmission towers often traverse geologically challenging terrains. This is particularly evident in the Salt Lake region, where the convergence of unique geological attributes and environmental stressors leads to recurrent land subsidence incidents, jeopardizing the integrity of power lines. In light of the prohibitive costs associated with indiscriminate remedial actions, precision in risk assessment and management is imperative to streamline these interventions. The objective of this study is to propose an accurate and effective framework for assessing the risk of land subsidence for power transmission towers. To achieve this, by utilizing the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) technology and cross-validation from field investigations, representative sample disaster datasets of surface deformation points of transmission towers are obtained in the first. Two optimization approaches for susceptibility modeling were employed to further enhance the susceptibility model for land subsidence and obtain high-precision susceptibility results along the transmission towers. Then, combined on-site damage investigation with SBAS-InSAR technology to conduct subsidence vulnerability analysis of transmission towers. Finally, the ultimate outcome of this process was the development of a risk assessment matrix based on spatial probability (susceptibility) and damage scales (vulnerability), aimed at more accurately assessing land subsidence risk. This framework could identify the spatial distribution of subsidence susceptibility in transmission towers exposed to potential damage, which could be followed by a more detailed transmission tower-based vulnerability and risk assessment. The method has been successfully applied in the Salt Lake area, and the susceptibility results based on the Grey Wolf Optimization-Random Forest (GW0-RF) model have shown the best modeling effect, and the area under of receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.95. The vulnerability results show that 105 towers have been most severely damaged by land subsidence The risk distribution map shows that the central part of the Salt Lake area is the core zone for future land subsidence risk management. A total of 101 towers are in the high and very high risk level. The insights garnered from this investigation furnish a comprehensive understanding of the risk landscape for transmission towers, underpinning future-focused design, planning, and management strategies.

Prediction of cross-border spread of the COVID-19 pandemic: A predictive model for imported cases outside China.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been present globally for more than three years, and cross-border transmission has played an important role in its spread. Currently, most predictions of COVID-19 spread are limited to a country (or a region), and models for cross-border transmission risk assessment remain lacking. Information on imported COVID-19 cases reported from March 2020 to June 2022 was collected from the National Health Commission of China, and COVID-19 epidemic data of the countries of origin of the imported cases were collected on data websites such as WHO and Our World in Data. It is proposed to establish a prediction model suitable for the prevention and control of overseas importation of COVID-19. Firstly, the SIR model was used to fit the epidemic infection status of the countries where the cases were exported, and most of the r2 values of the fitted curves obtained were above 0.75, which indicated that the SIR model could well fit different countries and the infection status of the region. After fitting the epidemic infection status data of overseas exporting countries, on this basis, a SIR-multiple linear regression overseas import risk prediction combination model was established, which can predict the risk of overseas case importation, and the established overseas import risk model overall P <0.05, the adjusted R2 = 0.7, indicating that the SIR-multivariate linear regression overseas import risk prediction combination model can obtain better prediction results. Our model effectively estimates the risk of imported cases of COVID-19 from abroad.

Entomological risk assessment for transmission of arboviral diseases by Aedes mosquitoes in a domestic and forest site in Accra, Ghana

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are Aedes-borne viral diseases that have become great global health concerns in the past years. Several countries in Africa have reported outbreaks of these diseases and despite Ghana sharing borders with some of these countries, such outbreaks are yet to be detected. Viral RNA and antibodies against dengue serotype-2 have recently been reported among individuals in some localities in the regional capital of Ghana. This is an indication of a possible silent transmission ongoing in the population. This study, therefore, investigated the entomological transmission risk of dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses in a forest and domestic population in the Greater Accra Region, Ghana. All stages of the Aedes mosquito (egg, larvae, pupae and adults) were collected around homes and in the forest area for estimation of risk indices. All eggs were hatched and reared to larvae or adults for morphological identification together with larvae and adults collected from the field. The forest population had higher species richness with 7 Aedes species. The predominant species of Aedes mosquitoes identified from both sites was Aedes aegypti (98%). Aedes albopictus, an important arbovirus vector, was identified only in the peri-domestic population at a prevalence of 1.5%, significantly higher than previously reported. All risk indices were above the WHO threshold except the House Index for the domestic site which was moderate (19.8). The forest population recorded higher Positive Ovitrap (34.2% vs 26.6%) and Container (67.9% vs 36.8%) Indices than the peri-domestic population. Although none of the mosquito pools showed the presence of dengue, chikungunya or Zika viruses, all entomological risk indicators showed that both sites had a high potential arboviral disease transmission risk should any of these viruses be introduced. Continuous surveillance is recommended in these and other sites in the Metropolis to properly map transmission risk areas to inform outbreak preparedness strategies.

Distribution characteristics of emerging and reemerging Oncomelania hupensis in China from 2015 to 2021

To analyze the distribution characteristics of emerging and reemerging Oncomelania hupensis snails after the criteria for transmission control of schistosomiasis were achieved in China, so as to provide insights into assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk and formulation of snail control strategies during the elimination phase. O. hupensis survey data in China from 2015 to 2021 were collected from the National Schistosomiasis Pevention and Control Information Management System, and the distribution characteristics of emerging and reemerging O. hupensis snails were descriptively analyzed. Emerging and reemerging O. hupensis snails were identified in China each year from 2015 to 2021, with relatively larger areas with emerging and reemerging O. hupensis snail habitats in 2016 and 2021, and relatively higher numbers of counties (districts) where emerging and reemerging O. hupensis snails were detected in 2016 and 2021. A total of 4 586.30 hm2 of emerging O. hupensis snail habitats were found in 10 schistosomiasis-endemic provinces of China (except Fujian and Yunnan Provinces) from 2015 to 2021, with 96.80% in Anhui, Hunan and Hubei provinces, where marshland and lake endemic foci were predominant. A total of 21 023.90 hm2 of reemerging O. hupensis snail habitats were found in 12 schistosomiasis-endemic provinces of China from 2015 to 2021, with 97.67% in six provinces of Hubei, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Yunnan and Anhui, where marshland and lake and hilly endemic regions were predominant. Emerging snail habitats were found in 15.08% of all schistosomiasisendemic counties (districts) in China from 2015 to 2021, and 78.75% of all emerging snail habitats were identified in 11 schistosomiasis-endemic counties (districts), with the largest area of emerging snail habitats found in Lixian County, Hunan Province (645.00 hm2). Reemerging snail habitats were found in 47.67% of all schistosomiasis-endemic counties (districts) in China from 2015 to 2021, and 43.29% of all reemerging snail habitats were identified in 11 schistosomiasis-endemic counties (districts), with the largest area of reemerging snail habitats found in Weishan Li and Hui Autonomous County of Hunan Province (1 579.70 hm2). Emerging and reemerging O. hupensis snails were identified in China each year from 2015 to 2021, with much larger areas of reemerging snail habitats than emerging snail habitats, and larger numbers of schistosomiasis-endemic provinces and counties (districts) with reemerging snails were found that those of provinces and counties (districts) with emerging snails. Specific snail control interventions are required tailored to the causes of emerging and reemerging snail habitats. Both emergence and reemergence of O. hupensis snails should be paid attention to in marshland and lake endemic areas, and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Shanghai Municipality and Zhejiang Province where schistosomiasis had been eliminated, and reemergence of O. hupensis snails should be given a high priority in hilly areas. In addition, monitoring of O. hupensis snails should be reinforced in snail-free areas after flooding.

Comparison of the efficiency of different etiological assays for detection of Schistosoma japonicum infections in wild mice

To compare the efficiency of multiple etiological techniques for detection of Schistosoma japonicum infections in wild mice, so as to provide technical supports to assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk. Wild mice were captured with baited traps at night in Oncomelania hupensis snail-infested settings in schistosomiasis-endemic foci of Anhui Province from October to November, 2022. S. japonicum infections were detected in wild mice using microscopy of mouse liver tissues, microscopy of mouse mesenteric tissues, microscopy of mouse liver tissue homogenates, miracidial hatching test of mouse liver tissue homogenates, Kato-Katz technique and miracidial hatching test of mouse stool samples alone and in combinations. Identification of S. japonicum eggs or miracidia by any of these six assays was defined as an infection. The sensitivity of six assays alone or in combinations was compared for detection of S. japonicum infections in wild mice. A total of 1 703 wild mice were captured, with 366 wild mice detected positive for S. japonicum (21.49%). There were significant differences in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in wild mice by six assays (Q = 529.33, P < 0.001) and in the sensitivity of six assays for detection of S. japonicum infections in wild mice (χ2 = 527.78, P < 0.001). In addition, the combination of microscopy of mouse liver tissues and mesenteric tissues, combination of microscopy of mouse liver tissues and liver tissue homogenates and combination of microscopy of mouse liver tissues, microscopy of mesenteric tissues, microscopy of liver tissue homogenates and Kato-Katz technique showed 86.61%, 87.16% and 97.27% sensitivities for detection of S. japonicum infections in wild mice, respectively. Diverse etiological assays show various efficiencies for detection of S. japonicum infections in wild mice. Combination of microscopy of mouse liver tissues and microscopy of mesenteric tissues, and combination of microscopy of mouse liver tissues and microscopy of liver tissue homogenates are potential approaches for field detection of S. japonicum infections in wild mice.

Using pedestrian modelling to inform virus transmission mitigation policies: A novel activity scheduling model to enable virus transmission risk assessment in a restaurant environment

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a large impact on the world. The virus spreads especially easily among people in indoor spaces such as restaurants. Hence, tools that can assess how different restaurant settings can impact the potential spread of an airborne virus and that can assess the effectiveness of mitigation policies are of high value. Microscopic pedestrian models provide the tools necessary to assess the detailed movements of people in a restaurant and with that the risk of virus transmission. This paper presents the application of a microscopic pedestrian model, including a novel activity choice and scheduling model, to assess virus transmission risks in restaurants. Simulation experiments identify that different factors impact virus transmission risks in a restaurant. Contacts between restaurant staff and customers are the driving factor for virus transmission in a restaurant whereby especially staff presents a big risk. Hence, mitigation policies focussing on these interactions and on preventing staff from transmitting the virus can be highly effective. The results also show that different restaurant layouts and setups lead to distinctly different transmission risks. Therefore, insights obtained from simulating one restaurant cannot be just transferred to any other restaurant. Together, these results show the added value of including pedestrian models in disease transmission risk modelling exercises to mitigate the impact of a pandemic caused by an airborne virus. However, the research also shows that, to better utilize the potential of pedestrian models for disease transmission risk modelling, future research of pedestrian activity scheduling behaviour in indoor spaces is necessary.

Transmission risk assessment of HIV/AIDS epidemic resulting from sexual transmission in China, 2013–2017

To estimate the risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection through sexual transmission in China from 2013 to 2017 accurately, we divide the total population into three groups, namely, men who have sex with men (MSM) group; non-marital and commercial sex group: female sex workers (FSW) and their clients (FSWC); non-marital and non-commercial sex group: general women (GW) and general men (GM). First, the risks of HIV infection among men who have contacts with infected men or infected women decrease annually. Second, the number of contacts between susceptible FSWC and infected FSW per unit time is greater than that between susceptible MSM and infected MSM, and also greater than that between susceptible FSW and infected FSWC, which suggests that the intervention for commercial sex of heterosexual men should be strengthened. Third, the effective reproduction numbers of the MSM group and non-commercial sex group decrease annually, while the effective reproduction number of the commercial sex group decreases first, then increases, because the risk of women being infected by men decreases first, then increases. Additionally, the effective reproduction number of the commercial sex group exceeds that of the MSM group after 2015, which indicates that commercial sex contributes more and more to the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Construction of a schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system in Wuhan City based on analytic hierarchy process

To construct a schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system in Wuhan City and preliminary evaluate its application effect, so as to promote the rational allocation of schistosomiasis control resources and accelerate the progress towards schistosomiasis elimination. The schistosomiasis risk assessment indicators were collected through referring schistosomiasis surveillance data of Wuhan City from 2014 to 2020, literature review and expert interviews. Indicators within each criterion and sub-criterion were screened using the Delphi method, and a hierarchical structure model was created based on analytic hierarchy process. Quantitative assignment of each indicator was conducted according to relative importance, and the weight and combination weight of each criterion were calculated in each analytic hierarchy framework to create a schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system, which was used for the schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment in 12 national schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Wuhan City. A three-level schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system was preliminarily constructed, which included a target layer, 5 criterion layers and 21 sub-criterion layers. Of all indicators in the criterion layer, transmission route had the highest weight (0.433), followed by source of Schistosoma japonicum infection (0.294); and among all indicators in the sub-criterion layer, S. japonicum infection in Oncomelania hupensis and sentinel mice had the highest combination weight (0.125), followed by prevalence of S. japonicum infection in humans (0.091) and bovines (0.053), snail control by chemical treatment (0.049), positive rate of inquiry examinations (0.048), allocation of schistosomiasis control professionals (0.045), and areas of submerged snail-infested settings (0.041). Of the 12 national schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Wuhan City, there were 5 sites with weights of > 0.8, 4 sites with weights of 0.6 to 0.8, and 3 sites with weights of < 0.6 in 2020. A schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system has been constructed based on analytic hierarchy process in Wuhan City, which may provide a evidence-based basis for health resource allocation and decision-making for schistosomiasis control.

Risk assessment of airborne transmission of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in long-distance transport

Risk assessment of airborne transmission of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in long-distance transport

Methods for virus recovery from environmental surfaces to monitor infectious viral contamination

Accurate quantification of infectious contaminants on environmental surfaces, particularly infectious viruses, is essential for contact transmission risk assessment; however, difficulties in recovering viruses from surfaces using swabs complicates this quantification process. Herein, we identified the factors that significantly affected virus recovery rates and developed an ideal swab method that yielded the highest rate of virus recovery. We comprehensively analyzed the effects of swab type (cotton/polyester), swab water content (wet/dry conditions), surface material, and surface area on the rates of viral RNA and infectious virus recovery.The virus recovery rate was significantly lower than the viral RNA recovery rate (P < 0.01), indicating difficulty in the quantification of infectious viruses. The virus recovery rate was significantly higher under wet conditions than that under dry conditions (P < 0.006), and the virus recovery rate obtained using cotton swabs was significantly higher than that using polyester swabs (P < 0.0001). Furthermore, the virus recovery rate had a strong negative correlation (correlation coefficient >0.8) with the target surface area. The maximum surface area where the virus recovery rate was ≥10% (MSA-10%) was identified as the maximum quantifiable area. For influenza virus recovery, MSA-10% on polyvinyl chloride (PVC) sheet, PVC leather, stainless steel, silicone, glass, and polycarbonate surfaces was 66.7, 193, 60.2, 144, 105, and 15.6 cm2, respectively. For feline calicivirus recovery, MSA-10% on PVC sheet, PVC leather, stainless steel, silicone, glass, and polycarbonate surfaces was 210, 111, 2120, 250, 322, and 180 cm2, respectively.The most accurate and ideal method for quantifying infectious viruses on environmental surfaces with the highest recovery rates meets three specifications: “wet conditions,” “the use of cotton swabs,” and “a target surface area of approximately 10 cm2.

An Improved Failure Mode and Effect Analysis Model for Automatic Transmission Risk Assessment Considering the Risk Interaction

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful tool for reliability management that has been widely applied in a variety of areas. The interaction relationship exists in the whole process of FMEA risk assessment, and has an important impact on it. However, few scholars consider the interaction among experts, risk factors, and failure modes in the FMEA framework. Therefore, we propose an improved FMEA method, which comprehensively considers the interaction between each part. First, the Choquet integral is used to improve the incomplete part of the social trust network, then the importance of experts is determined. Second, the Shapley-LINMAP linear programming method based on cloud model is proposed to calculate the weight of risk factors. Finally, the improved decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method based on cloud model is used to rank the failure modes. By applying the method proposed in this article to the case of automatic transmission (AMT) of new energy vehicles, the effectiveness and superiority can be verified from the comparison analysis with other methods, which enriches the theoretical research of the FMEA method and improves the reliability of risk assessment of AMT.

Concordance of emergency department physicians' decisions on HIV post-exposure prophylaxis with national guidelines: results from a retrospective cohort study.

Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is an effective tool to prevent infection with HIV. Patients seeking PEP after potential HIV exposure usually present to the emergency department (ED). Our study sought to determine the concordance of ED physicians' decisions on HIV-PEP with national guidelines (primary objective) and to assess the clinical relevance of drug-drug interactions (DDIs) between the HIV-PEP regimen and patients' concomitant medication (secondary objective). We conducted a retrospective cohort study at the ED of Hannover Medical School, Germany. Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2019, 113 of 11 246 screened patients presented to the ED after potential HIV exposure and were enrolled in the study. The median age of the patients (82.3% male) was 30 y (IQR 25-35.5), 85.8% of potential HIV exposures were characterised as sexual and 85.0% presented within 72 h. ED physicians' decisions on HIV-PEP were concordant with national guidelines in 93.8%. No clinically relevant DDIs were detected. ED physicians' decisions on HIV-PEP were highly concordant with national guidelines. Approximately 1% of patient presentations to the ED were related to HIV exposure; therefore, training ED physicians on HIV transmission risk assessment and indications/contraindications for HIV-PEP is paramount.