Construction of a schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system in Wuhan City based on analytic hierarchy process

Abstract

To construct a schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system in Wuhan City and preliminary evaluate its application effect, so as to promote the rational allocation of schistosomiasis control resources and accelerate the progress towards schistosomiasis elimination. The schistosomiasis risk assessment indicators were collected through referring schistosomiasis surveillance data of Wuhan City from 2014 to 2020, literature review and expert interviews. Indicators within each criterion and sub-criterion were screened using the Delphi method, and a hierarchical structure model was created based on analytic hierarchy process. Quantitative assignment of each indicator was conducted according to relative importance, and the weight and combination weight of each criterion were calculated in each analytic hierarchy framework to create a schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system, which was used for the schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment in 12 national schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Wuhan City. A three-level schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system was preliminarily constructed, which included a target layer, 5 criterion layers and 21 sub-criterion layers. Of all indicators in the criterion layer, transmission route had the highest weight (0.433), followed by source of Schistosoma japonicum infection (0.294); and among all indicators in the sub-criterion layer, S. japonicum infection in Oncomelania hupensis and sentinel mice had the highest combination weight (0.125), followed by prevalence of S. japonicum infection in humans (0.091) and bovines (0.053), snail control by chemical treatment (0.049), positive rate of inquiry examinations (0.048), allocation of schistosomiasis control professionals (0.045), and areas of submerged snail-infested settings (0.041). Of the 12 national schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Wuhan City, there were 5 sites with weights of > 0.8, 4 sites with weights of 0.6 to 0.8, and 3 sites with weights of < 0.6 in 2020. A schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system has been constructed based on analytic hierarchy process in Wuhan City, which may provide a evidence-based basis for health resource allocation and decision-making for schistosomiasis control.