Trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 based on Joinpoint regression analysis

Abstract

To investigate the changing trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the schistosomiasis elimination strategy in the province. The epidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 were collected, and the trends in the endemic status of schistosomiasis were analyzed using a Joinpoint regression model. The trends in the prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infections in humans, bovines and Oncomelania hupensis were measured in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 using average annual percent change (AAPC), and the correlations among the changing trends in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in humans, bovines and O. hupensis snail status were evaluated using Pearson correlation analysis. The prevalence of S.japonicum human infections continued to decline in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, with an annual mean decline of 14.8% [AAPC = -14.8%, 95% confidential interval (CI): (-18.9%, -10.5%), P < 0.01]. The prevalence of S. japonicum infections continued to decline in bovines in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2015 [AAPC = -31.3%, 95%CI: (-35.1%, -27.2%), P < 0.01], and was 0 for 5 successive years from 2016 to 2020. During the period from 2004 to 2020, there was an annual mean decline of 0.7% in areas of snail habitats [AAPC = -0.7%, 95%CI: (-1.2%, 0.3%), P < 0.05] and an annual mean decline of 9.2% in the density of living snails [AAPC = -9.2%, 95%CI: (-18.3%, 1.0%), P = 0.08] in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, and an annual mean decline of 35.6% was found in the density of S. japonicum-infected snails [AAPC = -35.6%, 95%CI: (-49.2%, -18.3%), P < 0.01] from 2004 to 2012, with no infected snails detected in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2020. There were significant correlations in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections between humans and bovines (r = 0.959, P < 0.01), between the prevalence of S. japonicum human infections and the density of S. japonicum-infected snails (r = 0.823, P < 0.01) and between the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in bovines and the density of S. japonicum-infected snails (r = 0.902, P < 0.01). The prevalence of S. japonicum infections appeared a decline in humans, bovines and O. hupensis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, and significant correlations were found among the changing trends in the prevalence of S. japonicum human infections, the prevalence of S. japonicum bovine infections and the density of S. japonicum-infected O. hupensis snails. Because of a minor decline in the area of snail habitats and widespread distribution of O. hupensis, however, there is still a risk of schistosomiasis transmission, and precision control for schistosomiasis remains to be reinforced in Anhui Province.