Risk Assessment Techniques Research Articles

Simulating Cybersecurity Risk Using Advanced Quantitative Risk Assessment Techniques

This paper; a scenario-based teaching case study, aims to introduce students in a Cybersecurity Risk Management course to advanced quantitative risk assessment techniques. The case study utilizes a fictitious company for which a risk assessment is underway. Assuming the role of the Cybersecurity Risk Team of the company, students are tasked with determining the risk exposure the company faces from a threat scenario against one of its mission-critical information resources. Specifically, the students are required to (1) quantify the monetary losses that could result from a threat scenario, (2) compute the inherited risk exposure from the threat scenario, (3) compute the residual risk given the implantation of certain security controls, and (4) compute the rate of return on the security controls. The case study holds the promise of enhancing the overall learning of the students and boosting their marketability as future cybersecurity professionals.

A Geo-Hazard Risk Assessment Technique for Analyzing Impacts of Surface Subsidence within Onyeama Mine, South East Nigeria

This paper proposes a geo-hazard risk assessment technique to analyze the impacts of surface subsidence monitored in a major coal mine in Nigeria. In many developing countries, disaster risk management schemes have mainly focused on traditional singular hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, or risk assessment. However, it is difficult to use a singular application to adequately address hazard assessment due to the variation in data requirements, factors associated with the hazards, and the various elements at risk. Most times, hazard assessment schemes heavily rely on data and techniques from different global organizations that collate data on disasters, using various scales and objectives to make informed decisions. Several challenges seemingly arise from total reliance on these kinds of data due to standardization, the exact number of potential victims, and the purpose of the data collection. This makes disaster information collected at the local level unique and assessment schemes more complete; however, the coverage is limited worldwide. The proposed approach combines the spatial relationship between vulnerability assessment and elements at risk to highlight the grave consequences of potential disasters. Thus, the aim is to underscore the importance of integrating local-level inputs in analyzing risk factors and vulnerability indicators for hazard assessment. This study was conducted at the Onyeama coal mine in South East Nigeria. This area has experienced severe negative impacts of subsidence over the years. We exploit data from Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Satellites and Small-Baseline Subset Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-DInSAR) technique to map the study area. The results generate an elements-at-risk database with a particular focus on population density, road networks, and building networks identified as indices for loss estimation.

Dynamic risk assessment of hospital oxygen supply system by HAZOP and intuitionistic fuzzy.

Events such as oxygen leakage in the oxygen generation systems can have severe consequences, such as fire and explosion. In addition, the disruption in the oxygenation systems can lead to a threat to patients' lives. Thus, this study aimed to identify the significant deviations in the oxygen supply system as critical equipment at hospitals based on the Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) method. Despite the advantages of risk assessment techniques, hazard identification techniques are still being utilized with deterministic and unreliable values and have a completely static nature. Therefore, using dynamic techniques to overcome intrinsic ambiguity in the risk assessment process through fuzzy sets has been recommended. Additionally, we proposed the HAZOP methodology to integrate with the intuitionistic fuzzy system for assessing the medical oxygen supply system using Pressure Swing Absorbance technology as a proactive approach. The results showed that the intuitionistic fuzzy approach, combined with the risk assessment method, is a suitable tool to eliminate uncertainty, improve decision-making, and result in more detailed and accurate findings. The approach adopted in this study can be used as a needs assessment tool to optimize maintenance programs and provide the necessary training for the staff, maintenance operators, and medical equipment managers.

Cyber Security Risk Modeling in Distributed Information Systems

This paper deals with problems of the development and security of distributed information systems. It explores the challenges of risk modeling in such systems and suggests a risk-modeling approach that is responsive to the requirements of complex, distributed, and large-scale systems. This article provides aggregate information on various risk assessment methodologies; such as quantitative, qualitative, and hybrid methods; a comparison of their advantages and disadvantages; as well as an analysis of the possibility of application in distributed information systems. It also presents research on a comprehensive, dynamic, and multilevel approach to cyber risk assessment and modeling in distributed information systems based on security metrics and techniques for their calculation, which provides sufficient accuracy and reliability of risk assessment and demonstrates an ability to solve problems of intelligent classification and risk assessment modeling for large arrays of distributed data. The paper considers the main issues and recommendations for using risk assessment techniques based on the suggested approach.

Integrated Approach for Landslide Risk Assessment Using Geoinformation Tools and Field Data in Hindukush Mountain Ranges, Northern Pakistan

Landslides are one of the most recurring and damaging natural hazards worldwide, with rising impacts on communities, infrastructure, and the environment. Landslide hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments are critical for landslide mitigation, land use and developmental planning. They are, however, often lacking in complex and data-poor regions. This study proposes an integrated approach to evaluate landslide hazard, vulnerability, and risk using a range of freely available geospatial data and semi-quantitative techniques for one of the most landslide-prone areas in the Hindukush mountain ranges of northern Pakistan. Very high-resolution satellite images and their spectral characteristics are utilized to develop a comprehensive landslide inventory and predisposing factors using bi-variate models to develop a landslide susceptibility map. This is subsequently integrated with landslide-triggering factors to derive a Landslide Hazard Index map. A geospatial database of the element-at-risk data is developed from the acquired remote sensing data and extensive field surveys. It contains the building’s footprints, accompanied by typological data, road network, population, and land cover. Subsequently, it is analyzed using a spatial multi-criteria evaluation technique for vulnerability assessment and further applied in a semi-quantitative technique for risk assessment in relative risk classes. The landslide risk assessment map is classified into five classes, i.e., very low (18%), low (39.4%), moderate (26.3%), high (13.3%), and very high (3%). The developed landslide risk index map shall assist in highlighting the landslide risk hotspots and their subsequent mitigation and risk reduction.

Reducing the risk of intentional domino effects in process plants: A risk‐based minimax strategy

AbstractCompared with safety assessment, security risk assessment in chemical and process plants is more challenging. On top of uncertain environmental and operational parameters and interdependent failures, which are common in the safety risk assessment of complex systems and infrastructures, there are other uncertain parameters such as the likelihood of attack scenarios and attackers' expected outcomes. As such, the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques, which have long been applied to safety risk assessment and management, to security risk management may result in nonoptimal or suboptimal decisions. In the present study, we will demonstrate how a combination of PRA and game theory may outperform PRA and lead to a more cost‐effective allocation of security measures. For this purpose, the outcome of a dynamic Bayesian network—as a PRA technique—is used as input to the minimax strategy—as a game theoretic strategy—for security risk management of a tank terminal under attacks with a homemade bomb. The proposed risk‐based minimax strategy alleviates the need for estimation of attack likelihoods or attacker payoffs, which would have otherwise been too challenging to estimate if the analyst solely depended on a PRA technique.

Application of artificial neural network and multi-linear regression techniques in groundwater quality and health risk assessment around Egbema, Southeastern Nigeria

This paper examined the efficiency of artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariate linear regression (MLR) models in the prediction of groundwater quality parameters such as ecological risk index (ERI), pollution load index (PLI), metal pollution index (MPI), Nemerow pollution index (NPI), and geoaccumulation index (Igeo). 40 groundwater samples were collected systematically and analyzed for mainly heavy metals. Results revealed that adopting measured parameters is effective in modeling the parameters with high level of accuracy. Contamination factor results reveal that Ni, Zn, Pb, Cd, and Cu have relatively low values < 1 within the region while the Iron values ranged from low contamination to very high contamination (> 6). PLI, MPI, and ERI results indicated low pollution. NPI results indicated that the majority of the samples were heavily polluted. Quantification of Contamination results revealed that most of the sample's quality was geogenically influenced. Igeo results revealed that most of the samples had extreme pollution. The health risk assessment results revealed that children are substantially prone to more health risk more than adults. The ANN and MLR models showed a high effective tendency in the prediction of ERI, PLI, MPI, NPI and Igeo. Principal component analysis results showed appreciable variable loadings while the correlation matrix results reveal that there exists weak and positive correlation amongst elements. Based on the outcome of this study, this research recommends the use of ANN and MLR models in the prediction of groundwater quality parameters as they yielded positive, reliable, acceptable, and appropriate accuracy performances.

ENGINEERING OF CRISES AND RISKS OF TRANSPORTATION OF DANGEROUS GOODS

The goal is to support the development of crisis and risk engineering in the field of transportation of dangerous goods to ensure the sustainability of transportation in Ukraine for the integration of the country into the global transportation network. Method. Using systemic analysis, risk assessment techniques have been proposed that allow to strengthen safety measures during the transportation of dangerous loads. Thanks to mathematical modeling, the main factors, causes of risk (human factor, environmental factors, outdated material and technical equipment, production process, ergonomic factors, etc.) of the occurrence of an emergency situation during the transportation of dangerous goods by railway transport were formulated. A formalized approach to the presentation of the component systems "man-machine-environment" is considered, which allows to expand the possibilities of risk assessment and analysis of the influence of the human factor on the occurrence of an emergency situation based on mathematical modeling methods. Another formalized approach to coordination and interconnected work and responsibility in the "sender-carrier-receiver" system is considered. The results. 1) On the basis of the established and analyzed factors and causes of risks, recommendations have been developed to reduce the risks of an emergency situation and increase the safety of transportation. 2) Based on the analysis of two systems ("man-transport-environment" and "sender-carrier-recipient"), the concept of development of these two systems was presented in the context of increasing the interaction between the elements of the system of improving the safety of transportation. Scientific news. By the authors, when assessing the risks of an emergency, for the first time, all participants in the process of transportation of dangerous goods (man, machine, environment, sender, carrier and recipient in the context of two systems "man-machine-environment" and "sender-carrier-recipient". The practical significance. Developed recommendations for improving the safety of the transportation process, based on the analysis of the risk assessment of the occurrence of an emergency situation for two systems "man-machine-environment" and "sender-carrier-recipient", as well as the identification of possible causes and factors of the occurrence of emergency situations during transportation dangerous goods by rail transport.

Use, exposure and omics characterisation of potential hazard in nanomaterials

Nanomaterials offer the potential for positive technological impact in a variety of industries. The major breakthrough is in neurological therapeutic applications as their physical and chemical properties allow them to penetrate the blood-brain barrier (BBB). However, questions concerning its safety have arisen as a result of its permeability and the broad application of nanomaterials especially the engineered nanomaterial (ENMs). Due to the large spectrum of ENM properties, pinpointing individual features that caused toxicity is difficult. It is therefore urgent to capitalise on these new developments in ENM safety evaluation. Indeed, novel risk assessment and risk management techniques for humans and the environment across the whole life-cycle of nanomaterial products have emerged in recent years, including systems biology approaches and high-throughput screening platforms. Moreover, the new toxicology technology should practically reduce the number of animal samples required for testing and allow both in vitro and in vivo cell studies. Unlike traditional cytotoxicity, which limits the analysis effect to a single experiment, hazardous risk assessment by integrated omics technologies using high-throughput technologies provides robustness of systemic functional analysis towards ENM, allowing the discovery of biomarkers and functional pathways affecting ENM safety application.

Improved formal safety assessment methodology using fuzzy TOPSIS for LPG-fueled marine engine system

In this study, a risk assessment of a Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) marine engine system being developed for installation in the first LPG-powered ship in South Korea was performed and a new standard for a formal safety assessment (FSA) was proposed. Based on the FSA technique, hazards were identified through a failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) in the first stage. An FMEA workshop was conducted to assess 110 components, and 89 hazards were identified. Of these, 19 failure modes of intolerable level were identified, and risk ranks were divided into four groups. Then, a more objective risk assessment was conducted using fuzzy set theory to compensate for the subjectivity of FMEA. Additionally, a technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was used to represent the risk rank of individual systems more precisely. By the second stage, risk ranks could be divided into 28 groups through the classification of a total of 89 hazards. Finally, risk control options were presented for high-ranking hazards according to the fuzzy TOPSIS results, and a cost-benefit analysis was performed. Consequently, the gross and net costs of averting a fatality were calculated as US $2.98 million and US $2.93 million, respectively. Through a cost-benefit analysis, the periodic exchange of main critical components was found to be in the range of economic criteria that could be recommended as a safety standard. The risk assessment technique proposed in this study allows a more objective and effective selection of critical hazards that necessitate risk control measures.

Development of the technology for diagnostic assessment of scientific, technical and financial risks of technology integration with production systems

The paper deals with the definition and measurement of scientific, technical and financial risks of technology integration in business processes. The aim of the paper is to develop the methodological tools for the diagnostic assessment of risks as a result of technology integration with production systems. Two groups of scientific methods were used in the study. The first group (the method of logic and the method of theory construction) was used to develop the technology of diagnostic risk assessment. The second group of methods is a part of the proposed technology (document analysis, expert survey, grouping and description methods, expert analytical and calculation methods, as well as the method of expected value). These methods as an objective and subjective basis of the research are aimed at providing the qualitative and quantitative assessment of the potential events that pose the scientific, technical and financial threats for technology integration in business processes. The main results of the study are the technologically related diagnostic and evaluation steps helping to determine the risks of technology integration in the industrial sector. The paper proposes the necessary tools (methods) and discusses the expected result of their use in the written form for each stage (and sub-stage) of the technology for diagnostic risk assessment.

Design &amp; analysis of novel IT security framework for overcoming data security &amp; privacy challenges

IT security has always been a major concern for all organizations, especially after the rise in IT Integration amongst all processes, Post pandemic this has become a bigger issue than earlier. The organizations are growing also with IT Integration the negative impact of information related risk incidents are also increasing worldwide. There are several IT Risk Assessment Frameworks in use to address information security assaults, vulnerabilities, threats, and breaches, including ISO 270001/27005. COBIT, NIST SP- 800/53 etc, though following and implementation of these protocols, still organizations face challenges of IT risk, which may involve an asset or information. The biggest challenge is the data Security or privacy. Based on survey data, this study evaluates the majority of the current IT risk management frameworks and makes an effort to pinpoint any shortcomings in them. Based on the analysis done, a new IT Security framework is proposed and implemented in two organizations for its detailed analysis and validations with the existing models For the Risk Assessment of the same organization new technique for IT Risk Assessment is also proposed.

Application of laboratory and on field techniques to determine the risk of hydrogen embrittlement in gaseous hydrogen and relative mixtures transport and storage

The European Green Deal aims to achieve the climate neutrality in Europe by 2050; furthermore, an intermediate target fixes a first reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by minimum 55% within 2030, with reference to 1990 levels. In these contexts, and in particular in hard-to-abate processes as steelmaking, hydrogen could be a key instrument to achieve the above-mentioned sustainability targets. It can be produced from renewables and does not produce direct CO2 emission when used. On the other side, one of the main issues related to hydrogen use is the fact that it involves a certain risk linked to potential susceptibility of steels to hydrogen embrittlement phenomenon that could also lead to catastrophic failures. Suitable materials should be used in these applications by performing a prior evaluation of material susceptibility. The characterization consists in determining the behaviour of materials when exposed to hydrogen atmosphere, in order to determine a hydrogen threshold value for failure. To approach this theme, a first experimental was carried out on steels typically applied in oil and gas industry. Experimental included hydrogen diffusivity, solubility and mechanical tests. Moreover, electrochemical charging was compared to gaseous charging, confirming the first methodology is much more severe and thus not very significant for high-pressure gas applications. Furthermore, a continuous monitoring technique for hydrogen embrittlement risk assessment is under development. The methodology is based on high-resolution gas sensors used to measure the hydrogen flux permeating through the metal wall of transport and storage components. Relative signal can be correlated with the material susceptibility to hydrogen embrittlement in order to assess related failure risk. The device was tried on a pressure vessel containing pure hydrogen to assess the system’s sensitivity.

Ergonomics Postural Risk Assessment and Observational Techniques in the 21st Century

Workers in various industries where materials are handled manually are at a higher risk of suffering musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and related body pains. These workers experience various occupational diseases due to the awkward working postures they take during tasks. Some of these work postures include sitting (for long period), lifting, body twisting, or bending. This review studied the various body postures and material handling tasks employed during daily work activities by workers. The occupational hazard in human tasks, general survey of postures in human tasks, body parts involved in human tasks, assessment of occupational risk factors and various approaches to modification have also been reviewed. The review concluded with suggestions on possible ergonomic intervention that could alleviate the risk factors caused by these awkward body postures.

Railway construction project risk assessment techniques: systematic literature review

The purpose of this study is to conduct a systematic literature review of risk analysis techniques for railway construction projects. This review includes related papers on construction project risk analysis methods published between January 2000 and March 2020. For this review, the existing project risk analysis methods are classified as probabilistic, fuzzy logic, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and system dynamics approaches. The results of the review showed that fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) are dominant hybrid MCDM approaches for construction project risk assessment. Nonetheless, these approaches have their own limitations to handle dynamic and feedback effects of project risks as well as update new information when available. Hence, for railway construction project risk assessment, hybrid approaches that can deal with uncertainty, causal relationship, feedback, correlated and conflicting criteria are recommended for future research.

Risk Assessment of Innovation Prototype for the Example Hydraulic Cylinder

This paper presents both an example of the innovation prototype risk assessment and the universal way of conduct in assessing such solutions. For this purpose, the authors proposed a prototype risk assessment method based on the assumptions of the SWOT and TOWS analysis and the multi-criteria technical innovation risk assessment method. In the assumptions of the developed method, an account was taken of the conclusions resulting from the prospect theory. A symptom of this action was, e.g., a characterization of the team of experts (working on the prototype) in terms of their individual personality traits and mind (which has not been used so far in practical methods of assessing risk). As a result of the conducted assessment (for an innovative hydraulic cylinder prototype), the innovation prototype risk was determined as low, which was presented both on the map of domination and the map of risk assessment for this prototype. The procedure presented in the paper was planned so as to ensure that, after the prototype moves to the commercialization phase, it will be possible, on the basis of the already made calculations, to apply the full risk assessment dedicated for technical innovations with ease. This gives it a universal nature.

Evaluation of pharmacological prophylaxis for deep venous thrombosis in hospitalized patients with risk factors at the university teaching hospitals, Lusaka, Zambia

Background: Deep venous thrombosis is a common clinical problem accounting for high rates of morbidity and mortality. The existence of risk factors, which include trauma, venous stasis, and hypercoagulability, is linked to the occurrence of the condition. Objective of current study was to evaluate DVT risk factors and prophylaxis pattern of use for patients who were admitted at the University Teaching Hospitals in Lusaka, Zambia.Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted using medical files for patients who were hospitalized at the University Teaching Hospitals in Lusaka, Zambia from May 2020 to June 2021. Two hundred and ninety-six patient files were reviewed, and the Caprini risk assessment model was used to stratify patients into DVT risk categories. Multilinear regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with DVT prophylaxis.Results: Of the 296 patient files that were sampled from ICU, medical, and surgical wards, 198 (66.9%) (&gt;2 caprini score) were eligible for DVT prophylaxis, but only 77 (38.9%) of these eligible patients received prophylaxis. The number of eligible patients for DVT prophylaxis per department was as follows; ICU 50 (100%), Medical 71 (57.7%) and Surgery 77 (62.6%) wards. However, DVT prophylaxis was given to 21 (42%), 33 (46.5%), and 23 (29.9%) patients from the ICU, medical, and surgery, respectively. Enoxaparin was the most commonly used anticoagulant for Venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis with a mean dose of 60mg (SD±5). Across all departments, the most common predisposing risk factors for DVT were bed confinement for &gt;72 hours (167, 56.4%) and age of 41-60 years (118, 39.8%). In the adjusted model, swollen legs (AOR: 3.6, CI: 1.97, 6.57) and history of VTE (AOR: 21.3, CI: 9.87, 46.08) were significantly associated with a higher likelihood of DVT prophylaxis.Conclusions: Pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis is underutilized in patients in ICU, medical and surgical wards at the university teaching hospitals in Lusaka, Zambia. This study underscores the importance of implementing a DVT risk assessment technique for patients in ICU, medical and surgical wards and administering prophylaxis unless contraindicated.

Cancer Risk Assessment Tools in Primary Care Settings: An Integrative Review

Background: There are currently numerous risk instruments available to aid in predicting the present or future chance of getting a cancer diagnosis. It aids in determining a person's likelihood of developing certain cancers by looking at various risk factors, including environmental, behavioral, and genetic. Aim: To analyze the effectiveness of cancer risk assessment techniques utilized in primary care settings. Methods: An integrative review of literature Results: Five (5) studies were met the criteria based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. These tools demonstrated effectiveness in improving patient outcomes and serving as useful therapeutic tools in the primary care setting. Conclusion: Advantages that may aid clinicians in the primary care setting in validating the diagnosis and assisting patients in determining the early signs and symptoms in the diagnosis of cancer. The role of assessment tools can enhance the reliability and caliber of clinical judgment, which can enhance patient outcomes. Implications: The role of healthcare professionals, such as oncologists, nurses, and the healthcare team, on cancer risk assessment in the primary care setting across the lifespan is crucial to ensure a care plan tailored to each patient’s needs.

Exploring a cobot risk assessment approach combining FMEA and PRAT

AbstractCollaborative robots are an emerging technology falling within the scope of Industry 4.0 and based on the concept of Human‐Robot Collaboration (HRC). Unlike traditional industrial robots, collaborative robots are used in shared workspaces with no safety fences. Hence, prospective hazardous contacts need to be avoided or mitigated through a risk assessment. The normative standards such as ISO TS 15066 suggest a list of common hazards, but do not guide the robot system user through the risk assessment process. To address this shortcoming, this paper proposes a practical eight steps risk assessment approach, resulting in a risk priority list. In order to provide an accurate, practical, quantitative and supportive tool for HRC environments, the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and the Proportional Risk Assessment technique (PRAT) techniques are proposed for risk assessment. The two techniques mentioned above are combined in the suggested new methodology, highlighting both their benefits and disadvantages. The proposed methodology is applied with positive results to a collaborative brick‐lifter case study.

Cutting-edge public policy proposal to maximize the long-term benefits of distributed energy resources

In the context of increasing integration and relevance of distributed energy resources, this paper proposes an advanced public policy to maximize their long-term benefits through optimal regulated electricity market management. More specifically, the focus is on renewable distributed generation and energy storage systems. The proposed policy arises from three models or techniques, i.e., the optimized tariff model (regulated electricity market model), Bass diffusion model (long-term forecasting of the integration of distributed energy resources), and random walk (risk assessment technique), along with a stochastic optimization problem. The policy leads to socioeconomic welfare maximization while ensuring fairness for all the market players and enhanced control by the regulatory agency on the integration of distributed energy resources. By applying the policy to a concession area located in northeastern Brazil, where photovoltaic distributed generation systems dominate the market share, results demonstrate that it is highly valuable as a 156 (MR$) mean socioeconomic welfare gain was achieved when optimizing the design variables (compared to a non-optimal solution).