Situation Assessment Research Articles

Enhancing satellite-based emergency mapping: Identifying wildfires through geo-social media analysis

ABSTRACT When a disaster emerges, timely acquisition of information is crucial for a rapid situation assessment. Although automation in the standard satellite-based emergency mapping workflow has been advanced, delays still occur at crucial steps. In order to speed up the provision of satellite-based crisis products to emergency managers, this paper proposes a geo-social media-based approach that detects disaster events based on the spatio-temporal analysis of georeferenced, disaster-related Tweets. The proposed methodology is validated on the basis of two use cases: wildfires in Chile and British Columbia. The results show the general ability of Twitter to forecast events several days in advance, at least for the Chile use case. However, there are large spatial differences, as there is a correlation between population density and the reliability of Twitter data. Consequently, only few meaningful alerts could be generated for British Columbia, an area with very low population numbers.

A retrospective analysis of the increase in syphilis incidence in the Russian Federation in 2009-2023 and trends in dynamic development of epidemiological processes

The problem of syphilis incidence has been relevant throughout all times and remains so to this day. The level of incidence is a key indicator of the epidemiological situation regarding the spread of syphilis among the population. Over the past five years, the Russian Federation has experienced variability in syphilis incidence rates after a prolonged decline from 2009 to 2020. The assessment of the epidemiological situation regarding syphilis allows us to state that, overall, there is a stabilization of the epidemiological process in the country, characterized by a regression in incidence rates and a restoration of the trend towards further reduction. It is also evident that the observed increase in syphilis incidence in the Russian Federation was associated with a rise in the number of foreign nationals, including migrants, infected with syphilis, against the backdrop of a decrease in syphilis incidence among Russian citizens.

A Real-Time Flame Detection and Situation Assessment Algorithm for Firefighting Robots

A Real-Time Flame Detection and Situation Assessment Algorithm for Firefighting Robots

Creation of a Collaborative “School–University” Environment to Support Research Activities in Schools

This study identifies the issue of insufficient scientific and methodological support for school research projects. To address this, the study proposes the creation of a collaborative “school–university” environment, enabling schoolteachers and students to receive necessary guidance and methodological assistance in preparing and implementing school research projects in the humanities. The study suggests leveraging the Digital Humanities field to incorporate modern digital tools for creating competitive research projects that meet not only the requirements of the Ministry of Education, but also global scientific and economic trends. The assessment of the current situation in the preparation and implementation of school projects involved a survey of more than 600 teachers from the southern region of Kazakhstan. The survey results reveal that over 80% of teachers require scientific and methodological support in preparing school research projects. Based on the survey findings and the expressed demand for methodological assistance, the development of a pilot digital platform is planned. This platform will facilitate collaborative work among schoolteachers, students, university professors, and gifted students to create research projects in Digital Humanities. Such collaborative efforts aim to address the lack of adequate preparation for school research projects.

WASTE MANAGEMENT AS AN ELEMENT OF REVERSE LOGISTICS IN THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY

This article examines waste management and recycling as an element of reverse logistics in a circular economy. The concept of circular economy can be found very often in scientific and social environment. The aim of the article is to analyze the trends of waste management and recycling as a reverse logistics element in the conditions of circular economy in Europe and Lithuania. To achieve the goal were done: an analysis of theoretical sources to reveal the essence and connections of reverse logistics and circular economy, analysis of LR and EU legislation, development strategies of the environmental protection and waste management sector, analysis of EUROSTAT statistical data, monitoring, situation assessment and questionnaire survey. The main goals of the circular economy model are less raw materials, less waste, less emissions, managing such elements as raw materials, sustainable design, production, distribution, consumption, reuse, repair, collection, waste management, and residual waste. Direct logistics processes and reverse logistics play really important role in this concept. Logistics examines the movement of material, financial and information flows from the source of raw materials to the end user, reverse logistics examines the same flows, only in the opposite direction. Reuse, repair, collection, waste management are on responsibility of reverse logistics. For this reason, waste management in the terms of a circular economy cannot be seen only as the responsibility of the government and the end user (the resident sorting the waste). All participants in the supply chain, who were interested in bringing the material flow to the end user, and who created added value in the supply chain, according to the "polluter pays" principle, should take responsibility for the waste generated in the country, waste management and sorting, recycling. Because, for example, prevention of waste generation is a priority, and the cheapest solution is to avoid waste management and recycling. Thus, all participants in the supply chain must be interested and cooperate in the implementation of the circular economy. The general trends in the collection of the main sorted waste in Europe and Lithuania are not unambiguous, since waste management is regulated by different local laws of the countries. A general increase in the amount of sorted and collected waste is recorded, but not all countries demonstrate an increase, this may be related to the elements of the circular economy that have already been implemented, public awareness, declining consumerism, the economic situation in the country and other factors that lead to a generally more responsible approach to ecological aspects. EU newcomer countries are characterized by large increase in waste collection, regardless of waste types. Consumer opinion is quite favorable to the implementation of circular economy principles, but the main idea is that most of the responsibility for waste collection and management must be transferred to commercial participants in the supply chain.

Sustainability assessment of low-impact development methods for urban stormwater management: A multi-criteria decision-making approach

Low-impact development (LID) methods are used in urban areas as sustainable stormwater management solutions. However, previous studies often lack situational scenario-based assessments and cover a limited range of criteria and indices, overlooking key factors, especially in developing countries facing significant sustainability challenges. This study addresses these gaps by assessing the sustainability of four LID alternatives, including novel combinations of rain barrels (RBs), rain gardens (RGs), permeable pavements (PPs), infiltration trenches (ITs), and vegetative swales (VSs), for inside and outside the house in a case study located in Tehran, Iran. In addition, 22 quantitative/qualitative indices were selected across environmental, social, economic, and technical criteria. The three-phase indices evaluation involved 1) simulating the study area by the stormwater management model (SWMM), 2) collecting quantitative data, and 3) scoring qualitative indices through questionnaires. A modified analytical hierarchy process model was employed to rank LID alternatives in difficult, poor, transition, satisfied, and ideal scenarios. Considering situational scenarios, the results showed that IT and VS for outside the house consistently performed best, adding novel contributions. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of this finding despite changing criteria weights. This study provides a new framework for urban decision-makers in developing countries to adopt resilient stormwater solutions.

Ship collision situation assessment based on GA-BP and HMM

Ship collision situation assessment based on GA-BP and HMM

Factors influencing paddy farmers' choice of marketing channels: study of a nationally representative survey from India

PurposeThis study aims to examine the factors that impact the choice of paddy marketing channels in India at the farm level and household contingencies.Design/methodology/approachEmploying multinomial logistic regression, the analysis utilizes the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) 77th round Situation Assessment Survey (SAS) data from the 2018 to 2019 period, specifically for the paddy Kharif season, to determine the factors determining the choice of marketing channels. The significant independent variables include minimum support price (MSP) awareness, access to and adoption of technical advice, input agency, social group, farm size of farmers, region, age and education of the household head.FindingsAwareness of MSP and adoption of technical advice from experts can enhance the probability of selecting government channels for paddy. The reliance on government input agencies has a favourable impact on the choice of government channels. Government channels are more likely preferred by higher social groups and those with higher land-holdings. There has been a state-wise variation in access to regulated marketing channels for paddy.Research limitations/implicationsTransaction cost associated with marketing channel choice is an important factor, not incorporated in this study due to the unavailability in the NSS data.Originality/valueThe research uses the latest unit-level data of the NSSO 77th round, published by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), the Government of India.

Control of Production Process Material Flows

The article considers mathematical models and algorithms for material flowcontrolin production. Production of bakery goods and downhole equipment are taken as areas of application. Limitations, associated with the specifics of production entities in each area are described, in particular, effective utilization of enterprise warehouse reserves to ensure production process alterations to adapt the plan to market variability in terms of the supply cost and price levels of the manufactured products. It is proposed to automate the enterpriseactivities related to delivery orderplacement for interaction with suppliers, taking into account various factor alterations, as well as a reporting module applicationfor situation assessment and making out reports, simplifying the work of enterprise and departmentmanagers related to decision-making. The operational control of material flows during production is considered. The concept of production material flowcontrol is introduced as a comparison of raw materialamount intended for the productmanufacturing, the amount of raw materialstandard costs in productproduction within the framework of the main production plan and the available corresponding raw material reserves. The problem of material resource control is solved. The conclusions obtained during the study will serve as the basis for the information system development, that includes the compiling a list of materials, accounting of finished product in the warehouse, as well as accounting for ingredients unutilized during the production and remaining in warehouses, creation of a consumed material register and accounting of documents, the system will allow entering data in real time mode.

Participatory Budgeting in the EAEU Countries: Regulatory Framework and Practical Experience

Aim. The article defines the common features and specifics of the policy and practical experience of participatory budgeting in five post-Soviet member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan).Tasks. The assessment of the current situation in these countries by international organizations is used.The effectiveness of the legal framework for open budget and participatory budgeting in each analyzed country is revealed. Participatory budgeting models specific to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union are analyzed.Methods. First of all, we analyze the legislation and strategic documents, as well as the responsible bodies. Secondly, we provide an assessment of the practice of the EAEU countries by international organizations. Thirdly, we analyze the participatory budgeting models specific to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. Finally, we draw conclusions on similar problems in the EAEU countriesResults. It was revealed that the model of convergence democracy is more typical for Russia and Kazakhstan, multilateral participation is more or less specific for Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, participatory modernization is suitable for Belarus. Moreover, we see that there is no model of participatory budgeting that is specific to all EAEU countries.Conclusions. It can be concluded that the EAEU countries differ significantly in their participatory budgeting policies and practices, as well as in the ratings of international organizations. At the same time, a number of common points are noted.

Войны памяти и война с памятью, мемориальный суверенитет: подходы, концепции, разработки

The purpose of this article is to generalize the problems of socio-historical memory based on the material of social philosophy, as well as to attempt a balanced assessment of the current situation and strategies for preserving the genetic foundations of Russian culture. The research methodology is based on the idea of the complexity of open social systems and on a theoretical analysis of politico-sociological and socio-philosophical literature. A socio-philosophical interpretation of the conceptual distinction between social and historical memory is provided. Further, the paper describes the fundamental features of sociohistorical memory, which originates in the mechanism of reproduction of the genetic foundations of culture on the one hand, and in the specifics of the social structure of society on the other. The results of the study demonstrate that historical and social memory are inextricably linked, acting in relation to each other, firstly, as the content of memory, and secondly, as a way of organizing it, i.e. storing and broadcasting its content. In addition, the paper presents a brief overview of the current socio-philosophical issues of various aspects of sociohistorical memory and identifies the key modern actors of social memory and the problems of their interaction: memorial groups, memorial legislation, memory wars and the war on memory, as well as dilemmas about the understanding of the nature of conflict between various memory systems based on different value foundations. The authors note that historical memory is faced with challenges, overcoming which it undergoes a significant transformation by getting involved in the agenda of modern digital communication associated with a variety of new information phenomena that emerge due to the nature of the Internet. Taking into account the new conditions for socio-historical memory in Russia, the authors point out the vulnerability of classical methods of preserving and broadcasting memory. Thus, studying the experience of memory preservation and its adaptation to the new conditions of disseminating information becomes relevant. The authors conclude by outlining ways to solve the aforementioned problems.

Assessment of the Radiation Dose to Biota and Humans During the Discharge of Iodine by Radiopharmaceutical Production

During the production activities of radiopharmaceutical enterprises, the discharge of technogenic ¹³¹I is carried out. On the example L.Ya. Karpov Scientific Research Institute of Physics and Chemistry (Obninsk), a method for assessing the radioecological situation around the enterprise in long-term dynamics is shown by determining the content of radionuclide in the components of the natural environment, as well as dose loads on biota and humans. A model assessment of the average annual volume activity of a radionuclide based on a Gaussian model of scattering and transport of impurities in the atmosphere, allowing to determine it at any point of the terrain, has been performed. It was determined that the dose loads on biota varied from 0.5 µGy/d (for bees) to 8.7 µGy/d (for earthworms) and were significantly lower than environmentally safe exposure levels (100000 and 10000 µGy/d, respectively). Adult radiation doses ranged from 0.5 µSv/year to 1.3 µSv/year, which doesn’t exceed the quota of the Karpov Scientific Research Institute dose limit 300 µSv/year. The necessity of taking into account both the molecular and aerosol forms of ¹³¹I in the assessment of the radioecological situation in order to prevent underestimation of the dose load by up to two times is emphasized. The obtained assessments of the radioecological situation around the Karpov Scientific Research Institute in 2015-2021 indicate the absence of negative radiation and environmental effects on humans and their environment. The assessment algorithm can be applied to other enterprises producing radioactive iodine discharges.

Toward optimal disease surveillance with graph-based active learning

Tracking the spread of emerging pathogens is critical to the design of timely and effective public health responses. Policymakers face the challenge of allocating finite resources for testing and surveillance across locations, with the goal of maximizing the information obtained about the underlying trends in prevalence and incidence. We model this decision-making process as an iterative node classification problem on an undirected and unweighted graph, in which nodes represent locations and edges represent movement of infectious agents among them. To begin, a single node is randomly selected for testing and determined to be either infected or uninfected. Test feedback is then used to update estimates of the probability of unobserved nodes being infected and to inform the selection of nodes for testing at the next iterations, until certain test budget is exhausted. Using this framework, we evaluate and compare the performance of previously developed active learning policies for node selection, including Node Entropy and Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement. We explore the performance of these policies under different outbreak scenarios using simulated outbreaks on both synthetic and empirical networks. Further, we propose a policy that considers the distance-weighted average entropy of infection predictions among neighbors of each candidate node. Our proposed policy outperforms existing ones in most outbreak scenarios given small test budgets, highlighting the need to consider an exploration-exploitation trade-off in policy design. Our findings could inform the design of cost-effective surveillance strategies for emerging and endemic pathogens and reduce uncertainties associated with early risk assessments in resource-constrained situations.

To the issue of ensuring equal rights and opportunities for women and men in the field of business in Ukraine

The article is devoted to the formulation of proposals on ways to ensure equal rights and opportunities for women and men in the field of business as a sphere that provides a foundation for the functioning of the economic system of Ukraine. Based on the results of the conducted research, it was concluded that without defining a common basis for the business environment, society, and the state in the issue of ensuring equal rights and opportunities for women and men, gender gaps in the field of business will remain insurmountable. In this context, the full implementation of the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights, considering the gender perspective, has significant potential to become a universal common platform and conceptual framework for achieving positive transformational changes in Ukraine. It is noted that special attention should be paid to developing and implementing human rights due diligence tools, taking into account a gender-oriented approach and following legislative documents and guidelines that are respectively approved and being developed in the European Union. It was concluded that the UN Guiding Principles can become a guide for further modernization of legislation, including economic legislation, which will allow a more comprehensive approach to solving existing problems and involving the maximum number of stakeholders. It was also emphasized on the expediency of ensuring the effective collection of sex-disaggregated data that would enable the assessment of the actual situation in the business sector in Ukraine, including towards ownership aspects and decisive influence on the activities of business entities and other legal entities. Also, it was proposed to amend the current legislation and add gender data to the list of mandatory information entered into the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, Individual Entrepreneurs and Public Organizations, regarding individual entrepreneurs, managers, founders (participants), ultimate beneficial owners of legal entities, and managers of separate divisions.

Analysis and assessment of the demographic situation in perm region in 2012–2023

Objective. To analyze the demographic situation in Perm region in the period from 2012 to 2023, to determine the main trends, features and problems. Materials and methods. The method of statistical analysis of the demographic situation’s indicators in Perm region, Privolzhsky federal district, and the Russian Federation was applied. The data of the resources of the Federal State Statistics Service which includes the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (UIISS), Rosstat and Permstat served as the raw data. Results. The following features of the demographic situation in Perm Region in the period from 2012–2023 have been identified: population decline is proceeding faster than on average in Russia due to higher mortality rate, especially among men of working age; the structure of mortality rate, depending on the causes differs significantly from that of the population on the whole; gender and age structural deformity is marked ; life expectancy is reduced and healthy life expectancy is lower. Conclusions. The demographic situation in Perm region in the period 2012-2023 corresponds to an obvious phase of the demographic crisis, characterized by a direct natural population decline. When planning a demographic policy in the region, it is necessary to focus on reducing the preventable mortality rate of the working-age population, especially in the male; on reproductive health improvement and young people`s reproductive behavior, on continuation of the family institution development, on improving the elderly population’s quality of life, including health care delivery.

The Anatomy of Foreign Policy Crises

Reviewed edition: H. Kissinger. "Crisis". Moscow: AST, 2023. 512 p. The book presents a retrospective analysis of the international situation and the specifics of the political decision-making process in the context of escalating military-political tensions. The publication includes declassified transcripts of telephone conversations of US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger during two crises – the 1973 Arab-Israeli War (the Yom Kippur War) and the final US withdrawal from Vietnam in 1975. A distinctive feature of the collection is its documentary-memoir character, combining the memories of a direct participant in the events described by H. Kissinger, a documentary account of what happened, illustrating the vicissitudes of two crises and an expert political assessment of the international situation and actions of the parties to the conflicts under consideration. This comprehensive approach is particularly interesting due to the fact that the author considers the events of the Arab-Israeli and Vietnamese crises in the broad context of domestic and foreign policy circumstances, as well as in the context of the global geopolitical confrontation between the United States and the USSR.

Fakeization Processes in the U.S. Information Space: Problems and Solutions

The modern world is facing an unprecedented growth of fake content, facilitated by several factors. First, social networks and messengers are becoming a key source of information for audiences. Second, the shift away from traditional media consumption leads to the inability to distinguish primary from secondary information. Third, artificial intelligence (AI) technologies make it possible to create extremely convincing fakes. Finally, the substitution of facts with opinions prevents people from obtaining objective assessment of situations. The mentioned reasons confirm the need for a scientific understanding of the current situation. The article considers approaches to the concept and typology of fake content, the influence of fakes on shaping the information landscape of the American world, post-truth as a phenomenon of modern reality, strategies to combat fakes at the audience, media and state levels.

Cognition in elite soccer players: a general model.

This paper presents a general model of the cognitive processes involved in each play situation of soccer at the elite level. Theoretically the model draws on general frameworks from cognitive psychology and neuroscience, in particular the affordance competition hypothesis and the reward prediction error theory. The model includes three functional stages: situational assessment, action selection and execution, and outcome assessment. The three stages form a perception-action cycle that corresponds to a single play situation. The cognitive processes operating at each functional stage are described and related to soccer research by a review of 52 empirical studies. The review covers the main cognitive processes that have been studied in soccer research: visual orientation and attention, pattern recognition, anticipation, working memory, action selection and decision making, executive control processes, as well as behavioral and cognitive learning. The model accommodates the wide variety of findings in the empirical literature and provides a general organizing frame for cognitive soccer research at the elite level. The influence of emotional and stress-related factors on cognition are also discussed. Four general limitations of the existing soccer research are identified, and suggestions for future studies include development of more naturalistic and interventional study designs. By specifying the different cognitive processes in soccer and their dynamic interactions the model has many applied perspectives for soccer training at the professional level. Overall, the paper presents the first integrated process model of cognition in elite soccer players with implications for both research and practice.

Future armed conflicts - A new point of view

This article focusses on future wars and the resulting consequences for the development of the armed forces. The purpose of this study is to indicate the course of future armed conflicts on the base of the forecasts presented by the largest research centres as well as to signal the need to look at them from a new point of view, disregarding the current tense situation in the world. The subjects of the research are armed conflicts, and above all, the possible ways of conducting them in the future, as well as the domains in which they will be fought. The authors assume that the causes and forms of future armed conflicts will evolve. Changes will depend on the time and place of the outbreak of conflicts, the technology used, as well as the scale of their play. It is also assumed that future armed conflicts will take place in all domains, between equal opponents or between great powers and smaller states or organizations, which are weaker to them in every respect. In the paper, the authors took an attempt to answer the following questions: How will the geopolitical and economic situation in the world change, also in the context of progressing climate change? How will armed conflicts evolve in a changing world? How will future wars play out and what capabilities should military forces have to fight them? According to the analysis, the authors claim that future armed conflicts will: take place in all domains; require a rapid situation assessment and decisions; conducted in a complex environment; include hybrid strategies; increasingly difficult to resolve; non-linear; took the form of asymmetric activities; periodically conducted without electronic devices (an opponent can disable devices or track them); implemented by modular units capable of conducting independent activities at the lowest levels; saturated with robots and drones.

Resiliência cognitiva em ação: avaliação e aplicação de protocolos mentais no método Bricpol para a defesa policial

This article analyzes the importance of automated behaviors in police defense and their impact on police officers’ operational efficiency. Based on the Bricpol intervention model, we highlight how automating certain behavioral responses can enhance police officers’ cognitive skills by reducing decision-making noise. The Bricpol model, known for its structured and systematic approach to officer training, emphasizes the repetition and constant practice of specific techniques until they become automatic. This process enables officers to respond efficiently and effectively under high-pressure situations, improving the accuracy and speed of their actions.Additionally, the article addresses how reducing cognitive effort in executing automated movements frees mental resources, allowing for better situational assessment and more accurate decision-making. Findings suggest that implementing automated behaviors not only optimizes physical defense but also enhances officers’ overall capacity to manage critical incidents, contributing to more effective and safer policing