Regional Seismic Hazard Assessment Research Articles

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations

In this study, a multi-source data fusion method was proposed for the development of a Hybrid seismic hazard model (HSHM) in China by using publicly available data of the 5th Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map (NSGM) and historical seismic catalogues and integrating with modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). This model incorporates the characteristics of smoothed seismicity and areal sources for regional seismic hazard assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard for the North China Plain earthquake belt was investigated through sensitivity analysis related to the seismicity model and GMPEs. The analysis results indicate that the Hybrid model can produce a consistent result with the NSGM model in many cases. However, the NSGM model tends to overestimate hazard values in locations where no major events have occurred and underestimate hazard values in locations where major events have occurred. The Hybrid model can mitigate the degree of such biases. Compared to the modern GMPEs, the GMPE with epicentral distance measures significantly underestimate the seismic hazard under near-field and large-magnitude scenarios. In addition, a comparison of the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) obtained by the models, with China’s design spectrum, shows that the current design spectrum is more conservative than the calculated UHS.

Heterogeneous Seasonal Deformation and Strain Budget in Himachal, NW Himalaya from new cGPS measurements: Hydrological and Seismic Hazard Implications

GPS measurements from 10 new permanent sites installed in Himachal, NW Himalaya are analysed with the primary objective to decipher the seasonal crustal deformation characteristics, its origins and hydrological implications. Additionally, we focus on the seismic hazard implications of the seasonal transients as well as of the long-term secular motion of GPS sites. Our findings suggest that the global hydrological loading models can relatively well explain the temporal surface displacements resulting from the monsoon rainfall in the Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP) but poorly account for the winter snowfall in Higher Himalaya. The approximately elliptical horizontal seasonal motion of GPS sites seems to be controlled by the spatio-temporal variations in the monsoonal hydrological load over the IGP. The hydrological process derived from the GPS data suggests slow and steady recovery in the water storage in Himachal Himalaya. The more intriguing phenomena is reflected in the unusually high seasonal site uplift and the yearlong (mid-2020 – mid-2021) plunge in the water storage corresponding to the time-period of COVID-19 lockdown phases, which could be speculated as its indirect impact on the crustal deformation history. The seasonal strain analysis revealed significant spatial heterogeneity. The arc-normal and arc-parallel seasonal strain resulting from differential seasonal motion between GPS sites seems to be primarily localized in the vicinity of locking transition zone, while the locked segment is being largely translated without experiencing significant strain. The localized seasonal strain showed positive correlation with the background seismicity rate suggesting possible modulation of the earthquake nucleation process. The regional seismic hazard assessment suggests susceptibility to a future great earthquake of ∼Mw8.4. The additional observed equivalency between the updated strain budget (∼9.3 m) and the previously reported co-seismic displacement (∼9.3 m) during the last great earthquake around ∼1400–1500 CE, suggests a recurrence interval of ∼600 years for great earthquake events in Himachal Himalaya with significant reliability.

Spatial correlation assessment of multiple earthquake intensity measures using physics-based simulated ground motions

Predictive models for spatial correlation play an effective role in the assessment of seismic risk associated with distributed infrastructure and building portfolios. However, existing models often rely on simplified approaches, assuming isotropy and stationarity. This paper verifies these assumptions by presenting a comprehensive study using a database of 3D physics-based simulated broadband ground motions for Istanbul, generated by the SPEED software. The results reveal significant event-to-event variability and nonstationary and anisotropic characteristics of spatial correlation influenced by source, path, and site effects. The development of nonstationary correlation models requires exploring influential metrics beyond spatial proximity and gaining a deep understanding of their impact, which is the focus of this study. Analysis of the spatial correlations of peak ground displacement, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and response spectral accelerations at different periods, employing both stationary and nonstationary correlation modelling methods and considering the finite fault model, indicates that the slip distribution pattern, direction and distance of station pairs relative to earthquake rupture, soil softness, and homogeneity of soil properties significantly influence the spatial correlations of near-field earthquake ground motions. Implementation of the introduced parameters in predictive spatial correlation models enhances the precision of regional seismic hazard assessments.

Nationwide frequency-dependent seismic site amplification models for Iceland

Seismic wave amplification due to localized site conditions or site-effects, is an important aspect of regional seismic hazard assessment. In the absence of systematic studies of frequency-dependent site-effects during strong Icelandic earthquakes, various local site proxies of large-scale studies in other seismic regions have been used and/or proposed for application in Iceland. Recently, however, earthquake site-effects were rigorously quantified for 34 strong-motion stations in Southwest Iceland for the first time and correlated to distinct Icelandic geological units of hard rock, rock, lava rock, and sedimentary soil. These units are prevalent throughout Iceland and in this study therefore, we present 1) nationwide maps of proxies (e.g. slope, Vs30, geological units) that may contribute to a better estimation of site effects and associated, 2) frequency-dependent site-amplification maps of Iceland relative to the median ground-motion prediction of Rahpeyma et al. (2023) [55]. We particularly focus on the two transform zones of the country, on the basis of digital elevation models and detailed geological maps. Specifically, the frequency-dependent site factors for each geological unit are presented at 1, 2, 5, 7, 10–30 Hz, and PGA. Finally, for comparison, we generate site amplification maps based on recent large-scale models developed in other seismic regions and/or applied in other studies (e.g., ESRM20) as well as various site proxies they are based on (e.g., geology- and slope-based inferred VS30, geomorphological sedimentary thickness). We compare site-proxy maps and amplification maps from both Icelandic and large-scale, non-Icelandic, models. Specifically, neither spatial patterns nor amplification levels in either proxy or amplification maps from large-scale non-Icelandic studies resemble those observed from local quantitative strong-motion research as presented in this study. We attribute the discrepancy primarily to the young geology of Iceland and its formation history. Additionally, this study compares model performance across frequencies by assessing the bias of model predictions against empirical site amplifications in the South Iceland Seismic Zone, accounting for site-to-site variability of residuals indicating the superior performance of the local amplification model. The results presented in this study now allow a more informed estimation of earthquake ground motion amplitudes on various geological units that are expected to result in more reliable and information-based seismic hazard estimates in Iceland.

Advancing the Limits of InSAR to Detect Crustal Displacement from Low-Magnitude Earthquakes through Deep Learning

Detecting surface deformation associated with low-magnitude (Mw≤5) seismicity using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is challenging due to the subtlety of the signal and the often challenging imaging environments. However, low-magnitude earthquakes are potential precursors to larger seismic events, and thus characterizing the crustal displacement associated with them is crucial for regional seismic hazard assessment. We combine InSAR time-series techniques with a Deep Learning (DL) autoencoder denoiser to detect the magnitude and extent of crustal deformation from the Mw=3.4 Gallina, New Mexico earthquake that occurred on 30 July 2020. Although InSAR alone cannot detect event-related deformation from such a low-magnitude seismic event, application of the DL method reveals maximum displacements as small as (±2.5 mm) in the vicinity of both the fault and earthquake epicenter without prior knowledge of the fault system. This finding improves small-scale displacement discernment with InSAR by an order of magnitude relative to previous studies. We additionally estimate best-fitting fault parameters associated with the observed deformation. The application of the DL technique unlocks the potential for low-magnitude earthquake studies, providing new insights into local fault geometries and potential risks from higher-magnitude earthquakes. This technique also permits low-magnitude event monitoring in areas where seismic networks are sparse, allowing for the possibility of global fault deformation monitoring.

The effects of precursory velocity changes on earthquake nucleation and stress evolution in dynamic earthquake cycle simulations

Seismic velocity changes in earthquake cycles have been observed over a wide range of timescales and may be a good indicator of the onset of future earthquakes. Understanding the effects of precursory velocity changes right before seismic and slow-slip events could potentially elucidate the onset and timing of fault failure. We use numerical models to simulate fully dynamic earthquake cycles in 2D strike-slip fault systems with antiplane geometry, surrounded by a narrow fault-parallel damage zone. By imposing S-wave velocity changes inside fault damage zones, we investigate the effects of these precursors on multiple stages of the seismic cycle, including nucleation, coseismic, postseismic, and interseismic stages. Our modeling results show a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors including fast earthquakes, slow-slip events, and variable creep. One primary effect of the imposed velocity precursor is on the earthquake nucleation phase, and earlier onset of precursors causes earthquakes to nucleate sooner with a smaller nucleation size that is not predicted by theoretical equations. Furthermore, such precursors affect the nucleation of dynamic earthquakes and slow-slip events. Our results highlight the importance of short- and long-term monitoring of fault zone structures for better assessment of regional seismic hazard.

Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye

Abstract. To test whether a globally inferred sediment thickness value from geomorphological studies can be used as a proxy to predict earthquake site amplification, we derive site-amplification models from the relation between empirical amplification for sites in Europe and Türkiye and the geomorphological sediment thickness. The new site-amplification predictions are then compared to predictions from site-amplification models derived using the traditional site proxies, VS30 inferred from slope, slope itself, and geological era and slope combined. The ability of each proxy to capture the site amplification is evaluated based on the reduction in site-to-site variability caused by each proxy. The results show that the highest reduction is caused by geological era and slope combined, while the geomorphological sediment thickness shows a slightly larger or equal reduction in site-to-site variability as inferred VS30 and slope. We therefore argue that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification modelling on regional scale can give an important added value and that globally or regionally inferred models for soil and sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology can have a great potential in regional seismic hazard and risk assessments. Furthermore, the differences between the site-amplification maps derived from different proxies capture the epistemic uncertainty of site-amplification modelling. While the different proxies predict similar features on a large scale, local differences can be large. This shows that using only one proxy when predicting site amplification does not capture the full epistemic uncertainty, which is demonstrated by looking into detail on the site-amplification maps predicted for eastern Türkiye and Syria, where the devastating Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence occurred in February 2023.

Paleoseismology of the Sawtooth Fault and Implications for Fault Behavior in the Epicentral Region of the 2020 Mw 6.5 Stanley, Idaho, Earthquake

Abstract The 2020 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.5 Stanley, Idaho, earthquake raised questions about the history and extent of complex faulting in the northwestern Centennial Tectonic Belt (CTB) and its relation to the Sawtooth normal fault and Eocene Trans-Challis fault system (TCFS). To explore faulting in this area, we excavated a paleoseismic trench across the Sawtooth fault along the western margin of the CTB, and compared an early Holocene (9.1 ± 2.1 ka, 1σ) rupture at the site with lacustrine paleoseismic data and fault mapping in the 2020 epicentral region. We find: (1) a history of partial to full rupture of the Sawtooth fault (Mw 6.8–7.4), (2) that shorter ruptures (Mw≤6.9) are likely along distributed and discontinuous faults in the epicentral region, (3) that this complex system that hosted the 2020 earthquake is not directly linked to the Sawtooth fault, (4) that the northeast-trending TCFS likely plays a role in controlling fault length and rupture continuity for adjacent faults, and (5) that parts of the TCFS may facilitate displacement transfer between normal faults that accommodate crustal extension and rotation. Our results help unravel complex faulting in the CTB and imply that relict structures can help inform regional seismic hazard assessments.

Seismicity Based Maximum Magnitude Estimation of Subduction Earthquakes in Peru

In seismic design, intensity parameters that represent seismic demand are commonly used. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is an accurate way of assessing seismic demand, based on a set of parameters that represent the seismicity of a region. However, because some regions lack sufficient information, the selection of these parameters can be controversial. In Peru, selecting a maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax) for regional seismic hazard assessments has proven to be a challenging task due to the limited available information concerning of large-magnitude events. This study evaluated the Mmax for subduction earthquakes using scaling relationships, empirical evidence, and the extreme value statistics (Kijko and Bayesian) approach. The seismic catalog was updated to February 2022 and divided into 19 subduction seismic sources (5 interface and 14 intraslab). The results showed that the obtained Mmax are within the range of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the interface and Mw 7.6–8.1 for the intraslab sources, which unlike the Mmax values established in previous regional seismic hazard assessments, are more consistent with the historical and instrumental seismicity and rupture models.

Tectonic framework of surface and blind structures from neotectonic and geophysical (gravimetry) analyses, Central Andes of Argentina

This work describes new evidence of N–S and oblique trending surface and blind structures in the La Cantera-Gualilán tectonic depression in the Central Precordillera, San Juan Province, Argentina. Two main N–S Quaternary thrusts cross longitudinally the valley located ∼60 km west of San Juan city (30° 50′- 31° 17′ S and 68° 55′- 69° 05′ W). One of them is located in the eastern piedmont of the Sierra de La Invernada (San Juan Fault) and the other in the western piedmont of the Sierra de La Cantera (La Cantera Fault System), although the northward continuation of this structure has not yet been confirmed.Besides, a smooth water divide or “portezuelo” controlled by an oblique transpressive structure (Divisadero Coba Rubia Fault) separates two N–S elongated river basins with opposite water flow directions. One of these is the Gualilán River, which flows from south to north, and the other corresponds to the La Cantera River, running from north to south.In the present work, we describe some new natural exposures and subtle geomorphological evidence of Quaternary structures identified in the Gualilán-La Cantera tectonic depression. We also use regional and local gravity data to analyze and interpret gravity anomalies related to these surface or blind active structures. Then, based on our geologic and geophysical interpretations, we infer the presence of several, buried cross-strike structures with NW and NE trends, one of them coincident with the drainage divide between the Gualilán and La Cantera opposite river basins, possibly related to the Coba Rubia Fault. Also, we suggest the northward continuation of the La Cantera Fault System (LCFS) as a buried structure in coincidence with the Gualilán River alluvial plain. In this sense, the gravity response of the basement and these river sub-basins shows a close relationship with the surface and subsurface structures. We propose that the oblique structures could represent pre-existing crustal fabrics reactivated during the Andean orogeny, segmenting the N–S Precordillera fold and thrust belt system. Finally, according to the analyzed neotectonic and gravimetric features, we consider the La Cantera-Gualilán Valley as a potentially seismogenic source in this intraplate portion of the Andean Precordillera, crossed by several N–S and oblique surficial and buried/blind active structures. These tectonic features could play a significant role in a regional seismic hazard assessment.

Regional seismic risk and resilience assessment: Methodological development, applicability, and future research needs – An earthquake engineering perspective

Given the devastating losses incurred by past major earthquake events together with the ever-increasing global seismic exposures due to population growth and urbanization, strategic decision-support tools are required to help stakeholders make more contemplated decisions that promote seismic resilience of the built environment. Such decision-support is enabled by regional seismic risk and resilience assessment, which holistically incorporates the various underlying physics processes and uncertainties for quantitative and probabilistic assessment of regional seismic hazard impacts, and has thereby attracted increasing research focus over the past twenty years. As a significant departure from the traditional site-specific assessment, where only an individual structure and site-specific seismic hazard are of interest, such regional-level assessment introduces additional dimensions and complexity. To date, there is a lack of review studies summarizing the related research advancements in seismic risk and resilience assessment from a regional-level perspective in the context of earthquake engineering. This study fills this gap by conducting a systematic review covering: the methodological development of regional seismic risk assessment (RSRiA) across its key modules, including hazard analysis, exposure modeling, fragility assessment, and consequence evaluation, as well as the associated uncertainty quantification and propagation; the development of resilience metrics, restoration modeling and planning in regional seismic resilience assessment (RSReA); and the applicability of existing computational workflows. Insights into the features, applicability, compatibility, and limitations of existing models and tools are provided. This study also highlights the challenges and future directions toward further advancing the research frontiers of RSRiA and RSReA.

Present‐Day Caribbean‐North American Oblique Convergence Through the Ocoa‐Bonao‐La Guacara Fault Zone, Southern Central Hispaniola: A Transition Zone Between Oceanic Subduction and Arc‐Oceanic Plateau Collision

AbstractAccording to GPS measurements, the Caribbean plate is moving east‐northeastward relative to the North American plate at a rate of ∼20 mm/a. This oblique motion is partly accommodated in southern Hispaniola by northward underthrusting/subduction bellow the Muertos submerged accretionary prism and the Peralta fold‐and‐thrust belt. This work investigates the active transition zone that connects Muertos and Peralta: the Ocoa‐Bonao‐La Guacara fault zone (OBFZ). Combined detailed structural analysis at macroscopic and mesoscopic scales, regional magnetic data and seismicity analysis, geomorphic observations, fault‐slip data inversion and geochronology of Quaternary deposits allow to establish the deformation pattern for the OBFZ along southern central Hispaniola. Distinct tectonic regimes have occurred successively in the Neogene, within a consistent regional NE‐trending horizontal shortening: (a) a lower Miocene to Early Pleistocene D1 regime characterized by SW‐directed thrusting that homogeneously affects the region; and (b) an Early/Middle Pleistocene to Holocene D2 regime of strike‐slip to transpressional faulting mainly located along the OBFZ. The change is coeval with the tectonic indentation of the Beata Ridge in the back‐arc region of the Hispaniola microplate. Finally, a Late Pleistocene to Holocene D3 extensional regime has a local development around the Ocoa Bay. Part of the present‐day stress‐field induced by the Beata Ridge collision is accommodated by the OBFZ within the Hispaniola microplate. This fault zone defines the onland transition between oceanic subduction and arc‐oceanic plateau collision. Due to its length and potential to generate large earthquakes, the OBFZ must be considered in the regional seismic hazard assessment.

The 1673 Tianzhen Earthquake and Rupture Behavior of the Yanggao‐Tianzhen Fault in the Northern Shanxi Graben, China

AbstractStudying the causative structure, extent, and magnitude of historical earthquakes is essential for regional seismic hazard assessment. There has been some debate in the literature regarding the epicenter, magnitude, and seismogenic source of the 1673 Tianzhen earthquake, one of the few documented strong earthquakes that occurred in northern Shanxi Graben, China. The Yanggao‐Tianzhen Fault (YTF) has long been recognized as a seismogenic fault; however, previous studies have suggested that the fault has not ruptured at the surface for several thousand years. In this work, we investigate fresh surface ruptures along the YTF based on field investigations, unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, and ground‐penetrating radar surveys. Scarp formation at Yanjiabu is bracketed to the last 1.4 ± 0.6 kyr using optically stimulated luminescence dating. More importantly, we found that the Great Wall at Li'erkou (dated from 1546 CE) was likely faulted, which led us to conclude that the YTF is the causative fault of the 1673 event. Based on our measured fault parameters, the magnitude of the 1673 event was re‐estimated to Mw 6.8–7.2, suggesting that previous magnitudes were underestimated. Four trenches were excavated to investigate paleoearthquakes on the fault. Together with previous paleoseismic data, we suggest a bimodal rupture model in which the fault can produce multi‐segment rupturing events with large magnitudes, such as the 1673 event, and smaller partial or single‐segment rupturing events. Our results shed light on the reassessment of seismic hazards in the densely populated Yangao‐Tianzhen Basin and its nearby regions.

Natural Time Analysis and Nowcasting of Quasi‐Periodic Collapse Events During the 2018 Kīlauea Volcano Eruptive Sequence

AbstractThe period of heightened volcanic and seismic activity at Kīlauea volcano on the island of Hawai’i, USA from late spring through summer 2018 included a remarkable quasi‐periodic sequence of caldera collapse events. From mid‐May to early‐August, 62 collapse events, each releasing the seismic energy equivalent of a Mw 5.0 ± 0.4 earthquake, occurred about every 1–2 days with over 300 M ≥ 2.5 earthquakes between sequential collapses. This region, experiencing very high rates of seismicity and frequent large magnitude events, is a good candidate to apply a regional seismic hazard assessment. Nowcasting is a type of statistical analysis that uses small magnitude events to estimate the occurrence of large magnitude events. This is done utilizing the concept of natural time in which time is counted by small magnitude event occurrences between large magnitude events, not in clock time (days passed). This method has produced a “nowcasted” set of large earthquakes that are in good agreement with the actual cataloged events in prior studies analyzing non‐volcanic regions. Previously applied to tectonic earthquakes and induced seismicity over longer time frames, this is the first test of nowcasting large caldera collapse events in volcanic associated seismicity and on a relatively short time scale. The technique produced limited “success” nowcasting 37 collapse events that agreed with the catalog of actual events. A temporal dependence of successful nowcasting during the sequence was found that may correlate to previously identified and analyzed physical changes in the volcanic system.

A heuristic features selection approach for scenario analysis in a regional seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment

Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) is aimed at estimating the annual rate of exceedance of an earthquake-induced tsunami wave of a certain location with reference to a predefined height threshold. The analysis relies on computationally demanding numerical simulations of seismic-induced tsunami wave generation and propagation. A large number of scenarios needs to be simulated to account for uncertainties. However, the exceedance of tsunami wave threshold height is a rare event so that most of the simulated scenarios bring little statistical contribution to the estimation of the annual rate yet increasing the computational burden. To efficiently address this issue, we propose a wrapper-based heuristic approach to select the set of most relevant features of the seismic model, for deciding a priori the seismic scenarios to be simulated. The proposed approach is based on a Multi-Objective Differential Evolution Algorithm (MODEA) and is developed with reference to a case study whose objective is calculating the annual rate of threshold exceedance of the height of tsunami waves caused by subduction earthquakes that might be generated on a section of the Hellenic Arc, and propagated to a set of target sites: Siracusa, on the eastern coast of Sicily, Crotone, on the southern coast of Calabria, and Santa Maria di Leuca, on the southern coast of Puglia. The results show that, in all cases, the proposed approach allows a reduction of 95% of the number of scenarios with half of the features to be considered, and with no appreciable loss of accuracy.

Similarities in the rupture process and cascading asperities between neighboring fault patches and seismic implications: The 2002–2009 Sumbawa (Indonesia) earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 6.2–6.6

The Flores Thrust is a southward-dipping, low-to-moderate angle submarine active fault in the eastern Sunda-Banda back-arc (Indonesia). Significant shallow-depth destructive earthquakes have been reported along this fault zone. From 2002 to 2009, one of its fault segments, called the Sumbawa segment, experienced five earthquakes with moment magnitude (MW) values of 6.2–6.6. In this study, we performed finite-fault rupture inversions for these earthquakes, constrained with teleseismic body and surface waveforms, to investigate the characteristics of earthquake ruptures along this fault zone. We obtained the source-time-functions and finite-fault rupture models for these five earthquakes. Results indicated that ruptures often propagated along-strike or down-dip. The ruptures were initiated from the middle crust (depth of approximately 12–17 km) and exhibited a comparable initiation behavior to their entire rupture. The rupture speeds and stress drops were approximately 2.0–2.5 km/s and 1.0–2.0 MPa, respectively. Five cascading asperities ruptured neighboring fault patches and did not overlap each other. The characteristics of earthquake source parameters and rupture processes obtained in this study are robust and helpful for future regional seismic hazard assessment and earthquake early warning studies. These cascading asperities might be related to the fault immaturity of the western Flores Thrust. Alternatively, these earthquakes may act as asperities located at the down-dip patches of the Sumbawa segment, and its shallower section still has a potential of ruptures with MW > 7.0.

Toward Fully Autonomous Seismic Networks: Backprojecting Deep Learning-Based Phase Time Functions for Earthquake Monitoring on Continuous Recordings

Abstract Accurate and (near) real-time earthquake monitoring provides the spatial and temporal behaviors of earthquakes for understanding the nature of earthquakes, and also helps in regional seismic hazard assessments and mitigations. Because of the increase in both the quality and quantity of seismic data, an automated earthquake monitoring system is needed. Most of the traditional methods for detecting earthquake signals and picking phases are based on analyses of features in recordings of an individual earthquake and/or their differences from background noises. When seismicity is high, the seismograms are complicated, and, therefore, traditional analysis methods often fail. With the development of machine learning algorithms, earthquake signal detection and seismic phase picking can be more accurate using the features obtained from a large amount of earthquake recordings. We have developed an attention recurrent residual U-Net algorithm, and used data augmentation techniques to improve the accuracy of earthquake detection and seismic phase picking on complex seismograms that record multiple earthquakes. The use of probability functions of P and S arrivals and potential P and S arrival pairs of earthquakes can increase the computational efficiency and accuracy of backprojection for earthquake monitoring in large areas. We applied our workflow to monitor the earthquake activity in southern California during the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence. The distribution of earthquakes determined by our method is consistent with that in the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) catalog. In addition, the number of earthquakes in our catalog is more than three times that of the SCEDC catalog. Our method identifies additional earthquakes that are close in origin times and/or locations, and are not included in the SCEDC catalog. Our algorithm avoids misidentification of seismic phases for earthquake location. In general, our algorithm can provide reliable earthquake monitoring on a large area, even during a high seismicity period.

Modelling of Critical Acceleration for Regional Seismic Landslide Hazard Assessments by Finite Element Limit Analysis

The critical acceleration model plays an important role in seismic slope stability and determines the predictive accuracy of regional seismic landslide hazard assessments. Recently, the critical acceleration model based on the limit equilibrium method has been used to evaluate the seismic stability of regional slopes. However, when the Hoek-Brown failure criterion is used to evaluate the seismic stability of slopes with angles greater than 60°, the results obtained is unconservative by limit equilibrium method. Therefore, based on the simulation of a typical slope model with finite element limit analysis, prediction equations of the critical acceleration are established. The corresponding results are compared with the prediction results from the limit equilibrium method. This comparison shows that the proposed critical acceleration model has higher predictive accuracy than the limit equilibrium method, especially when the Hoek-Brown failure criterion is used to evaluate the slopes with angles greater than 60°. The proposed model is applicable to the global scope and can be effectively applied to regional seismic landslide hazard assessments.

Mapping Fundamental-Mode Site Periods and Amplifications from Thick Sediments: An Example from the Jackson Purchase Region of Western Kentucky, Central United States

ABSTRACTV S 30 is currently used as a key proxy to parameterize site response in engineering design and other applications. However, it has been found that VS30 is not an appropriate proxy, because it does not reliably correlate with site response. Therefore, the VS30-based National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program site maps may not capture regional site responses. In earthquake engineering, site resonance, which can be characterized by the fundamental mode with a site period (Tf) and its associated peak amplification (A0), is the primary site-response concern. Mapping Tf and A0 is thus essential for accurate regional seismic hazard assessment. We developed a 3D shear-wave velocity model for the Jackson Purchase Region of western Kentucky, based on shear-wave velocity profiles interpreted from seismic reflections and refractions, mapped geologic units, and digital-elevation-model datasets. We generated shear-wave velocity profiles at grid points with 500 m spacing from the 3D model and performed 1D linear site-response analyses to obtain Tf and A0, which we then used to construct contour maps for the study area. Our results show that Tf and A0 maps correlate with the characteristics of regional geology in terms of sediment thicknesses and their average shear-wave velocities. We also observed a strong dependency of A0 on bedrock shear-wave velocities. The mapped Tf and A0 are consistent with those estimated from borehole transfer functions and horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio analyses at broadband and strong-motion stations in the study area. Our analyses also demonstrate that the depth to bedrock (Zb) is correlated to Tf, and the average sediment shear-wave velocity (VS-avg) is correlated to A0. This implies that Zb and VS-avg may be considered as paired proxies to parameterize site resonance in the linear-elastic regime.

Earthquake history of the Yatağan Fault (Muğla, SW Turkey): implications for regional seismic hazard assessment and paleoseismology in extensional provinces

The southern part of the Western Anatolia Extensional Province is governed by E-W-trending horst-graben systems and NW-SE-oriented active faults. The NW-striking Yatağan Fault is characterised by an almost pure normal sense of motion with a minor dextral strike slip component. Although the settlements within the area have been affected by several earthquake events since ancient times (~2000 BCE), the earthquake potential and history of the Yatağan Fault has remained unknown until a few years ago. Considering the growing dense population within the area, paleoseismology studies were conducted in order to illuminate the historical earthquake activity on the Yatağan Fault. Two trenches were excavated on the fault. Structural and stratigraphic evidence from the both trenches indicated an event horizon of a paleo-earthquake that was dated between 366 and 160 BCE and 342 ± 131 CE. This event horizon most probably reflected the evidence of the latest large earthquake rupture on the Yatağan Fault.