Residential water demands vary with a diurnal pattern, and peak hour demands lead to inefficiencies in the operation and management of urban water distribution systems. Peak hourly demands generate significant costs due to the energy requirements of producing and pumping large volumes of potable water. High peak demands also require large investments in infrastructure expansion to support urban growth and economic development. This research develops an agent-based model to assess a demand-side management strategy that shifts high hourly demands. This research envisions a gamification system that rewards players through a leaderboard for shifting water end uses for laundry, irrigation, and bathing from on-peak to off-peak periods. Gamification of demand shifting behaviors is enabled through advanced metering infrastructure, which measures hourly or sub-hourly demands at the account level, and can be analyzed to assess water use behaviors. This research develops an Agent-based Modeling approach based on the Opinion Dynamics theory to calculate the changing opinion of household agents toward shifting water demands, based on utility broadcasts, observations of neighbor water use, social media, and participation in a leaderboard. The model is applied for eight months of hourly demand data collected through smart meters at a participating utility. Results show that a high level of participation in the leaderboard increases the adoption rate of customers shifting the time of specific end uses and may account for up to a 37 % reduction of the peak volume. The diurnal curve is flattened as consumers shift water use from on-peak to off-peak hours. The Agent-Based Model - Opinion Dynamics approach can assist water utilities in designing and evaluating gamification approaches that mitigate peak demands to support water infrastructure management.
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