Asian Economic Crisis Research Articles

The Transformation of International Relations in East Asia at the End of the XX – Early XXI Centuries

The author examines the role of various institutions and countries in the transformation of the world order in East Asia during the period of the late XX – early XXI centuries. The work notes that at the end of the XX century, the American model of the regionalization process, carried out within the framework of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), dominated. However, due to the changes in the US foreign policy doctrine and the Asian economic crisis of 1997–1998, APEC, in the early 2000s, began to give way to ASEAN+, where Japan occupied the leading position. Since the mid-2000s, China has been strengthening due to successfully carried out economic reforms and the use of various integration platforms. As a result, China began to promote its own model of globalization and regionalization in the region, which challenged the American order not only in East Asia, but also in the Asia-Pacific region. In the late 2000s, Washington sought to regain lost positions in the region by promoting the Trans-Pacific Partnership integration project, which intensified the struggle between the leading powers for dominance in the region. As a result, in the 2010s. ASEAN+ and Japan are developing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) project, China is beginning to promote the Belt and Road international cooperation organization. As a result of the transformation of international relations caused by the movement of the world from unipolar to multipolar, there is a change in the transformation of the geopolitical situation in East Asia. The United States returned to the «traditional» methods of confrontation, increasing tension in the region and the world

Architecture of the Indonesia Welfare State: The reflection of 20 years of Indonesia Reformation Era

After Asian Economic Crisis (AEC) hit many of Asian countries in 1997, Indonesia and Asian countries are experiencing crisis and change, Indonesia had transformed its economic and political structured. From centralistic to be more decentralised. Indonesia has produced various economic policy to recover the destructive of the crisis which has impacted not only on economic dimension but also other dimensions. Alongside of massive economic and political changing, Indonesia also realised to reform its social policy system to protect people especially the lower middle class during the crisis. During 20 years from 1998-2018 Indonesia has a massive transformation in terms of social policy and strengthening their architecture of welfare state. Using several data from various journal articles and research reports which has been analysed through qualitative content analysis this paper is aimed to understand how Indonesia has been committing to address absolute poverty and income inequality. The results of the study found that Indonesia has transforming their social policy to be more institutionalised to tackle poverty and income inequality.

Juridical Analysis Of The Commissioners Of Limited Liability Companies Who Exercise The Authority Of The Executive Board Of Directors In Terms Of Good Corporate Governance Aspects

This study aims to explain the legal basis and functions of organs in a Limited Liability Company (PT) and identify the legal impact on PT organs that carry out the duties and authorities of other organs. In the global context, Good Corporate Governance (GCG) is the key to the company's success for long-term growth and business continuity. The economic crisis in Asia and Latin America in 1999 was attributed to the failure of GCG implementation. The research method used is normative juridical with an analytical descriptive approach. The two main approaches used are the statutory approach and the conceptual approach. The results showed that the executive actions of Commissioners in PT require approval from the Board of Directors with a power of attorney, maintain legality and implement the principles of Good Corporate Governance. The Bank as a third party also requests a power of attorney to ensure the legality of the applicant who is a Commissioner. Research reveals the legal basis for the establishment of a PT stipulated in Articles 36-56 of the Criminal Code and Articles 1233-1652 of the Civil Code. This research contributes to understanding the importance of GCG implementation and the legality of the Commissioners' executive actions in maintaining the integrity of the company. The results of the research are expected to be the basis for companies and regulators in improving good corporate governance.

Addressing Public Interest Violation Through Independent Anti-Corruption Bodies -A Case Study of the Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission in South Korea

South Korea is a young, experimental democracy with a relatively effective government, often praised as a model of state-led economic development. Although civil liberties have been bolstered since the successful transition from an authoritarian state to a consolidated democracy, corruption remains a persistent concern as hierarchical and authoritarian thinking are profoundly ingrained in society. Since the 1997 Asian economic crisis spurred the emergence of a liberal consensus on government corruption, diverse public institutions and civil society organizations have been actively involved in the fight for transparency and accountability. The creation of an independent anti-corruption agency, the Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission (ACRC), sent a strong message that the government is committed to preventing abuse of power and preserving the public interest. This paper aims to identify and understand the driving factors that led to the committees success in bringing transparency and accountability to the South Korean public sector, so that it may be replicated in other countries. It takes a descriptive approach to examine the strengths and weaknesses of ACRC and analyze its impact through various indirect indicators. The study reveals that the ACRCs all-encompassing strategy for anti-corruption reform has improved the level of integrity and public awareness. However, its autonomy and power are still called into question, suggesting future improvements are needed to realize its full potential, thereby bringing about more profound changes.

The progress of Indonesian law enforcement reform after 25 years of the reform movement

This study aims to examine the development of law enforcement reform in Indonesia, which has become very relevant after the economic crisis in Asia in 1997, which led to political turmoil and legal reform in Indonesia. This research is normative legal research, with primary data sourced from decisions of the Supreme Court and courts under the Supreme Court, regulations from the Attorney General’s Office and the National Police Chief, and decisions on case settlements by law enforcement officials; Secondary data obtained from books, journals, and the Internet. The study found that investigators and public prosecutors often settle cases out of court in criminal law enforcement with a restorative justice approach through peace and reconciliation. Judges sometimes act in violation of the rules of procedural law to achieve substantive justice. In enforcing civil law, courts only intervene when the parties involved fail to settle their disputes outside of court. This finding also indicates a high degree of acceptability of court decisions. In conclusion, law enforcement agencies and officials in Indonesia have made significant progress in implementing progressive law, as evidenced by the settlement of cases through mediation using a restorative justice approach.

Capitalism Effects through Asian Crisis: An Analysis of South Korea's Economic Policy in the Welfare State Perspective

The Asian financial crisis with a marked fall in the value of the Thai currency (Bath), initially a currency crisis was followed by a financial crisis in non-bank financial institutions which had to be closed due to bankruptcy. The economic crisis was followed and spread to South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and other Asian countries. International institutions reacted to help with the Asian crisis, initially The International Monetary Fund (IMF) after being asked for assistance by Asian countries provided assistance. Many analyzes have been given by financial, economic and political experts, one of which is Weiss and Hobson who analyzed that the Asian economic crisis appeared to have two faces namely; the external face is in the Deep Crisis area and the external face is in the ordinary crisis area, while the crisis occurs from the role of international actors, both state and non-state actors. The social policy approach that is applied takes welfare state steps, with welfare programs implemented by South Korea including reforms in the fields of labor, market and finance, BUMN and active social policies to provide social security for the unemployed or for those who become poor in the period of national economic reform. Weiss and Hobson concluded that state guided capitalism was one of the causes of the Asian crisis.

Malaysia. Characteristics of the Economy in the Context of the Transition to a Knowledge-Based Model

For more than 6 decades of independent history, Malaysia has gone through a complex and abrupt path of economic development. A competent management system, quick response to external and internal changes and a planning economic strategy, based on interconnected medium- and long-term plans that were drawn up based on the real state of the economy, and a strategic vision of development, contributed to the modernization and industrialization of the economy and helped to overcome unstable periods, including the Asian economic crisis of 1997–1998, the global economic crisis of 2008, which supported the restructuring of the one-sided agrarian and raw material structure of Malaysian economy and enabled it to become one of the new industrial countries. Entering the XXI century, Malaysia continues to focus both on the world’s best practices and to consider its national socio-economic characteristics to further transform the economic system, the main goal of which is the transition to a knowledge-based economy. The implementation of the innovative scenario means the large-scale institutional transformations, the development of new approaches to industrial and technological cooperation, the creation of innovative infrastructure, and qualitatively new requirements for human capital. Under these conditions, the study of economic situation of this country helps not only to identify several qualitative characteristics of the economy, but also to better understand the direction of its transition to a new stage of development.

The East Timor Action Networkand Transnational Advocacy:Domestic Lobbying and International Pressure for Self-determinationin Timor-Leste

Many factors contributed to the timing, in August 1999, of the referendum in Timor-Leste that led to the country’s independence; among them: Suharto’s abdication, Indonesia’s vulnerability to pressure after the East Asian economic crisis, Indonesia’s confidence that it will prevail using its usual methods of intimidation and manipulation, and, of course, the political and armed struggle of who supported and died for independence in Timor-Leste. Another element was the solidarity networks that emerged among activists from various countries who exerted internal pressure on their governments to force them to change their policy towards Indonesia. This article examines the East Timor Action Network, founded in 1991 in the United States, and its lobbying and internal pressure strategy. Building on Sikkink and Keck’s model of principle-based issue networks and their ability to exert domestic pressure for international results, this article shows how the Network successfully lobbied for change in US foreign policy toward Indonesia and contributed to the selfdetermination in Timor-Leste.

Malaysia's Trade and Economy Transition between the Era of Tunku Abdul Rahman and Tun Mahathir, 1960s -1990s

This article will focus on the main factors of change and development of economic modernization in trade. Since Malaysia gained independence, the agricultural sector has been a significant contributor to the country's financial income. However, in the 1980s, the industrial sector became essential to the national economy through gas and petroleum production. This situation changed the country's economic system and policies from the agricultural industry to the industrial sector in the early 1980s. The study examines the critical factors in Malaysia's economic development and trade changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. The study will also discuss changes and developments in the country's significant financial and trade policies. This research is using qualitative method by analyzing primary documents or materials from archives and secondary sources such as journal articles related to this research. The study began in the 1960s to take the year of Malaysia's independence in 1957 and ended before the Asian economic crisis in 1997. The findings show that internal factors such as government policy approaches and the country's vital financial resources were determinants of trade sector change. In addition, external factors of changes in the world economic environment and economic blocs also affect the modernization of the world economy. Therefore, internal and external factors play an essential role in developing the modernization of the trade economy.

Water Transmission Increases the Intensity of COVID-19 Outbreaks.

India suffered from a devastating 2021 spring outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), surpassing any other outbreaks before. However, the reason for the acceleration of the outbreak in India is still unknown. We describe the statistical characteristics of infected patients from the first case in India to June 2021, and trace the causes of the two outbreaks in a complete way, combined with data on natural disasters, environmental pollution and population movements etc. We found that water-to-human transmission accelerates COVID-19 spreading. The transmission rate is 382% higher than the human-to-human transmission rate during the 2020 summer outbreak in India. When syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) enters the human body directly through the water-oral transmission pathway, virus particles and nitrogen salt in the water accelerate viral infection and mutation rates in the gastrointestinal tract. Based on the results of the attribution analysis, without the current effective interventions, India could have experienced a third outbreak during the monsoon season this year, which would have increased the severity of the disaster and led to a South Asian economic crisis.

Analysis of Causality among Tax Revenue, State Expenditure, Inflation, and Economic Growth in Indonesia between 1973 and 2019

This study aims to analyze the causality between tax revenue, state expenditure, inflation and economic growth in Indonesia during the 1973-2019 period to provide policy advice to the Indonesian government. This country was selected as an object with consideration that its economy has grown impressively and has been able to rise from the Asian economic crisis. A brief overview of the policies developed during the research period is presented to provide insight into the policies taken by the government. The use of quantitative methods through the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality test was carried out to provide an in-depth analysis. The result showed a positive long-term two-way causality relationship between tax revenues and state expenditures as well as tax revenues and economic growth. This indicates that the government's efforts to implement state expenditure have succeeded in increasing tax revenues. Conversely, an increase in tax revenue allows the government to make state expenditures, both in development and other activities, to improve people’s economy, leading to increased economic growth. The government must maintain an economic policy strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic to restore the national economy by considering potential sectors that are suitable for the climate, such as the agriculture or livestock sector. The result of tests on inflation show that this variable is caused by economic growth and does not apply the other way around, but this variable is has a negative effect on tax revenue, state expenditure and economic growth so its needs to be suppressed to ensure the stable economic growth.

Solution Idea of MSMEs Based on Cluster in East Java During the Covid-19 Crisis: Can Survive or Not?

Based on history, MSMEs were able to survive the Asian economic crisis. With the COVID-19 pandemic crisis that is currently happening in the world and in the State of Indonesia, especially East Java, it is also affected. This study will explain whether MSMEs will continue to be hero in restoring the economic conditions of the East Java Region. Solutions and strategic ideas that may be carried out by East Java MSMEs in order to be able to survive on COVID-19 pandemic, one of which is a cluster based approach. Solution ideas related to the development and growth of MSMEs clusters in East Java need to be supported by innovation business based on incubation proces. Activities with incubators system for MSMEs that are still premature. Strategic ideas in the context of sustainable economic recovery due to the pandemic depend on the ability of East Java MSMEs to increase innovation. It was concluded that East Java MSMEs could implement a cluster based system to strengthen the network and supply of resources needed in the business. By forming clusters and implementing a marketing strategy expansion, geographic coverage, wide distribution and cost products efficiency strategies. So, it can be maintaining production and increasing productivity to optimization resource channels as to expand domestic and international markets.

Mangrove deforestation and CO2 emissions in Indonesia

Mangroves are unique intertidal ecosystems that are experiencing high rates of deforestation throughout the world. Indonesia that has the highest mangrove cover in the world has lost its mangroves significantly in 1980s with the expansion of aquaculture development due to the increased shrimp price during the Asian economic crisis. Mangrove loss emits a significant amount of greenhouse gas to the atmosphere that contributes to the global warming. This study aims to estimate the extent of mangrove deforestation in Indonesia and the potential greenhouse gas emissions generated from mangrove deforestation in the last decade. We analyzed the land cover maps produced by the Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry from 2009 to 2019 to calculate mangrove deforested areas as activity data. The average emission factor from mangrove deforestation is 136.9 MgCO2e ha-1yr-1, based on a meta-analysis from mangrove studies in Indonesia. Our result shows the total mangrove loss in the period of 2009 – 2019 covers an estimated area of 182,091 ha. The spatial analysis suggests that the main drivers of mangrove deforestation were derived from conversion of mangroves to low vegetated areas, aquaculture and agriculture practices. Mangrove deforestation potentially generates a significant amount of 182.6 MtonCO2e to the atmosphere within 10 years. If mangrove loss continues, a significant amount of greenhouse gases will be accumulated in the atmosphere and negatively affect their unique biodiversity. Halting mangrove deforestation and conserving the remaining mangrove forests is the most cost effective and efficient measure to reduce CO2 emissions and mitigate climate change.

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment and External Debt on Economic Growth in Indonesia

Indonesia as a development country, has a good economic growth in the 1990's. It shows by increasing of GDP year by year, stabilization of inflation, etc. But since 1997's economic crisis in Asia's countries, Indonesia's economic growth has been declining. It effected the monetary sector and real sector, and add again with progressively the amount of foreign debt of Indonesia, so that effect of Rupiah rate wich progressively weakening. This paper will analyze the foreign direct investment also foreign debt, on the economic growth of Indonesia. By using the OLS model on Indonesia yearly data from 1975-2009 and the confirm the significant of these independent variables as the factors that effected the economic growth of Indonesia. Foreign direct investment and foreing debt represent the way able to be gone through by government in overcoming deficit of national saving utilize to push the national development to get the good economic growth. Pursuant to things told above, writer try to study the problem of economic growth in Indonesia in its relation with the foreign direct investment and foreign debt by lifting title “Influence on The Foreign Direct Investment and The Foreign Debt to Economic Growth of Indonesia”.

Economic Crisis as a Supervening Event: Legal and Economic Perspectives on Impossibility Doctrine

The article attempts to examine the application of the impossibility doctrine toward economic crisis from the legal and economic point of view using the Asian economic crisis case. From a legal perspective, the economic crisis occurs after the conclusion of the contract, unforeseeable at the time of the conclusion of the contract, beyond the control of the promisor, and the risk of the event was not assumed by the promisor may constitute impossibility. From the economic analysis, it is evident that the foreign lenders should bear the risk as they have relatively better ability in predicting the event’s occurrence, are in a better position to diversify risks by pooling a self-insurance, engage in risky investment (mismatch maturity investment) while international environment makes borrowers less likely to hedge their loans. It also found that foreign banks do not expose to the Indonesia economic crisis, are better position to pooling a risk, have multiple cushions from being deprived out of the market. While another justification to apply the impossibility doctrine, in this case, is to avoid bankruptcy cost. It is suggested to use tools of analysis in applying impossibility doctrine: (i) the promisor (borrower) asking to discharged could not reasonably have prevented the event rendering his performance uneconomical, (ii) the promisee (lender) is in a better position to predict the probability of the occurrence of the event occurrence and the magnitude of the loss if it occurred, (iii) the promisee (lender) is in a better position to pooling risk, (iv) the promisor (borrower) does not have its wealth more positively correlated with the event (i.e. depreciation), and (v) he promisor (borrower) does not make a profit out of the market movement as a whole.

Impacts of COVID-19 on Airline Business: An Overview

Corona Virus Disease 2019 or COVID-19 has spread globally and been concerned as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO, 2020a). The virus has an enormous social and economic impact. United Nations Industrial Development Organization (2020) expects that the 2020 global GDP shall range between -8% to 1% depended on the situation during the last six months of 2020. Various businesses – tourism, hospitality, restaurant and transportation get affected by this pandemic. The airline business is one of the most vulnerable business since it is highly sensitive to change in the market environment and socio-economic factors (Wittmer et al., 2011). Airlines business has always dramatically affected during crisis circumstances, e.g., the Asian economic crisis in 1998, the USA terrorist attack in 2001, and the SARS virus spreading in 2003. The airlines lost 7 billion USD in terms of revenue solely because of SARS in 2003 (IATA, 2006). It is possible to expect a much more noticeable impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic comparing to the impact of SARS in 2003 because of the difference in the market environment, especially the difference in market size. The number of passengers per year has increased from 2 billion passengers in 2003 to 4.5 billion passengers in 2018 (IATA, 2019). The International Air Transport Association (IATA, 2020a) forecasts that the airline industry will need at least three to four years for recovering. An overview investigation of the impacts of COVID-19 on airlines can contribute to both academic study and management practice of the airlines. Keywords: COVID-19, Airline, Air transportation

Neo-Liberalism, the Rise of the Unelected and Policymaking in Thailand: The Case of the Medical Tourism Industry

ABSTRACT This article discusses how neo-liberal ideas about development take root when they encounter the very different political and economic context of a developing economy. It analyses Thailand’s medical tourism industry, earmarked by Thailand’s government as one of several priority industries to boost the economy in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Economic Crisis, which ravaged Thailand and ushered in a group of unelected actors – “reign-seekers” – intent on disbursing supposedly de-politicised neo-liberal governance reform. This article makes three inter-related arguments. First, these unconventional actors function as a fluid intermediary linking various public agencies, private sector players and civil society actors, fostering dialogue and reconciling diverging interests. Second, the influence of neo-liberalism on the workings of the state has been relatively modest as the “reign-seekers” have primarily promoted welfare-oriented policies over pro-business ones. Third, the “reign-seeking” elites’ welfare-oriented stance underlines the fracture and heterogeneity within a group of supposedly neo-liberal proponents.

Managing Ethnicity and Constructing the Bangsa Malaysia (A United Malaysian Nation)*

The question of nation-building has always been a central issue in Malaysian politics. Whilst the coun try has been able to sustain stable politics since the 1969 racial tragedy, spawning two decades rapid socio-economic development until the 1997 Asian economic crisis, the project of nation-building remained a basic national agenda yet to be filly resolved. This short paper investigates the delicate process of nation-building in Malaysia in the post 1970s. especially in the context of the vision of constructing the Bangsa Malaysia or united Malaysian nation enshrined in Mahathir's Vision 2020 project which was introduced in 1991. The aim of the paper is firstly to highlight the underlying socio-political parameters that shaped and influenced the politics of nation-building in the country, and secondly to explore the viability of the project of Bangsa Malaysia in the context of the daunting challenges involved in the process of nation- building The paper contends that, based on the Malaysian experience, the potent interplay between the forces of ethnicity and nationalism constitute the crux of the problem in the politics of nation-building in Malaysia. This dialectic it is argued, stems from the prevalence of the varying 'nationalisms' within and across ethnic groups. These phenomena have not only shaped the pattern of ethnic political mobilization in the country, but above all, laid the most complex set of obstacles in the path of the project of nation-building. The paper argues that the project of constructing the Bangsa Malaysia therefore, can be seen as significant attempt by the state to reconcile the competing 'nationalism'. It can also be considered as an attempt to consolidate Malay nationalism and cultural pluralism, thus promoting the development of 'civic nationalism 'or creation of 'a supra-ethnic ' national identity. The 'nation', therefore, is depicted as a 'mosaic of cultures but with a strong fervour of Malay nationalism. However, the viability of the envisaged project is yet to be tested. The concept itself is still vague to many people and the challenges ahead are enormous, involving political, economic, socio-cultural and religious issues. Indeed the project risks becoming the 'latest ' in the series of competing notions of 'nation-of- intent' circulating in Malaysia. The paper contends that whilst, to some extent, the socio-political landscape of Malaysian society has been rapidly changing, especially in the past two decades of Mahathir’s reign, ethnicity still pervades Malaysian political life. The paper probably differs from many previous studies on nation-building in Malaysia, thus, deepening the understanding of Malaysia politics and society.

Economic Policy in Indonesia and Prospects of Russian-Indonesian Trade and Economic Cooperation

The article is devoted to the analysis of the current economic situation in Indonesia and the prospects for RussianIndonesian economic cooperation. The author covers the economic development of Indonesia since 1998 Asian economic crisis, the domestic economic agenda and the policy of new President D. Widodo, as well as the history and potential for the further development of trade and economic relations between Russia and Indonesia. The relevance of the research is determined by the increasing role of Indonesia in international politics in the 21st century. Indonesia is the fourth largest country in terms of population, after China, India and the United States. Its economy is 16th in the world and first in ASEAN. It is a member of G20. It is expected that Indonesia will enter the top five largest world economies by 2030. For Russia, the development of relations with the rapidly developing Asian countries is an important element in of its foreign policy strategy of diversifying trading partners and entering the promising markets of developing countries. The main purpose of the article is to analyze current challenges faced by the Indonesian government in implementing new economic policy, to identify promising areas of bilateral cooperation of Russia and Indonesia in the context of anti-Russian sanctions. The article points out the potential of these relations and the mutual benefits for the Russian and Indonesian economy. The author used mainly the historical method, which allows tracing the history of the development of the economic situation in Indonesia and the evolution of Russian-Indonesian relations. While analyzing Indonesia’s domestic economic policy, the key research method has been a comparative analysis, which contributed to summarizing the achievements of Indonesian politics. In conclusion, the author identifies promising areas for further development of Russian-Indonesian trade and economic relations taken into account modern Indonesian economic policy’s need agenda.

Age, period, and cohort effects on infectious disease mortality in Korea, 1983-2017

Abstract Background Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death worldwide, and constitute a significant burden of disease, even in developed countries including Korea. Although different ages, periods, and cohorts may affect mortality, few studies analyzed the epidemiologic pattern of infectious disease mortality considering these effects. This study aimed to estimate the age-period-cohort effects on infectious disease mortality in Korea. Methods The national death certificate and census mid-year population estimates data from 1983 to 2017 were categorized into 5-year age groups and 5-year periods. Infant deaths were excluded due to incomplete data. Intrinsic estimator regression models were fitted to estimate age-period-cohort effects on infectious disease mortality. Results A J-shaped age effect declined from age 1-4 years (intrinsic estimator coefficient [IEC] 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52, 0.85), the lowest at age 20-24 years (IEC -1.68; 95% CI -1.85, -1.51), and then increased with age. The declining trend of period effects was slowed down in 1998-2002 (after the 1997-1998 Asian economic crisis), and turned to an upward trend from 2008-2012 (after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis). The cohort effect increased from the earliest cohort born before 1905 (IEC -1.17, 95% CI -1.35, -0.98), peaked in the 1941-1945 cohort (IEC 1.20, 95% CI 1.10, 1.29), then plateaued out (IEC ranged from 0.93 to 1.10), and has continued to decline since the 1966-1970 cohort in which rapid economic growth began. Conclusions There were clear age, period, and cohort effects on infectious disease mortality in Korea. Through the period and cohort effects, the economic downturn and upturn might have increased or reduced infectious disease mortality, respectively. Recent upward trend in infectious disease mortality after the 2008-2009 financial crisis suggests a need to strengthen prevention and control of infectious diseases. Key messages It is important to consider age-period-cohort effects in identifying the epidemiologic pattern of infectious disease mortality trend and finding its underlying drivers. Economic cycle might have influenced infectious disease mortality through period and cohort effects.