Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation Research Articles

Strong coupling between the East Asian summer monsoon and regional hydrological conditions as evidenced by multiproxy stalagmite records for the last deglaciation

Millennial-to centennial-scale abrupt climate events during the last glacial‒interglacial transition have significant relevance to modern-day extreme climate changes, which are occurring more frequently in the context of global warming. However, the regional expression of humidity conditions during the last deglaciation and their possible forcing mechanism in northern China are controversial. Here, combined with published δ18O data, we report 35-year-resolved δ13C and 76-year-resolved Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca records from a stalagmite from 15.3 to 10.9 ka BP from Lianhua Cave, northern China. The LH4 stalagmite δ18O record clearly records a weak monsoon event during the Younger Dryas (YD) from 12.8 to 11.6 ka BP and a strong monsoon event during the Bølling-Allerød (BA) from 14.6 to 12.8 ka BP. In addition, the δ13C and trace element ratio records, which represent local hydroclimatic changes, indicate wetter conditions during the BA and drier conditions during the YD, which appear to match well with the δ18O variations on the millennial timescale. A comparison of 28 records from 17 sites along the modern margin of the China summer monsoon revealed that the BA was characterized by wet conditions; inversely, the YD was characterized by dry conditions throughout northern China, which is obviously different from the consensus of the wet YD and the dry BA in northern northeastern China. The covariance in northern China suggests that the hydrological variation may be modulated by the advance and retreat of the large-scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation. Further comparison revealed an anticorrelated relationship between millennial-scale precipitation changes in northern China and the middle‒lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley during the last deglaciation. This correlation is analogous to the dipole precipitation mode at present, which is likely associated with the strength and position of the westerly jet and/or the western Pacific subtropical high, both of which play important roles in the spatial distribution of precipitation over eastern China.

Distinct response of Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation to orbital forcing during six Heinrich events

Climatic fingerprint of Heinrich (H) events was characterized by widespread megadroughts over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region accompanied by systemic weakening of the ASM. However, recent studies of hydroclimate proxies suggest huge spatial discrepancies in precipitation over the ASM region during some H events, characterized by increased precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley contrasting with the prevalent megadroughts across the whole ASM region. The mechanism responsible for the spatial discrepancies in precipitation and the relationship between local precipitation and the ASM intensity remain elusive. In this study, we investigate the response of the ASM circulation and precipitation to orbital forcing during six H events based on simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The results show that changes in insolation alone can induce spatial discrepancies in precipitation over the ASM region during the H events. During the H1, 3, 4, 5, 6 events, the amplification of the land-sea pressure contrast in response to a positive interhemispheric insolation gradient (30°N-30°S) during boreal summer intensifies moisture transport from the adjacent oceans to the ASM region. The ensuing moisture divergence, combined with anomalous downdrafts, results in decreased precipitation in the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) region, but converse scenario for the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) region. During the H2 event, the increased precipitation across the Yangtze River Valley sharply contrasts the widespread drought over the ASM region, attributing to an anticyclone anomaly over the subtropical Western North Pacific and a cyclone anomaly over Japan and Korea. Moisture budget analysis shows that the dynamic effect, especially the vertical term, rather than the thermodynamic effect, is the dominant control of precipitation changes over the ASM region. Our results also suggest that despite the synchronous variation in the strength of the EASM and SASM in response to orbital forcing, the EASM should not be regarded as an eastward and northward extension of the SASM. Furthermore, our model simulates a weak correlation between the monsoon intensity and precipitation in the SASM region in response to orbital forcing, calling for caution in employing precipitation to reconstruct SASM intensity on orbital time scale.

Influence of Equatorial Spring Insolation on Abrupt Asian Summer Monsoon Decline at Orbital Scale

AbstractThe dominant influence of precession‐induced changes in summer insolation on orbital‐scale variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during the Holocene has been widely proposed; however, it remains unclear why the decline of the ASM started several thousand years after the peak summer insolation. Through comparisons of climate simulations and proxy records, our study reveals that the abrupt decline in the ASM coincided with an increase in spring insolation at the equator. The reduced spring insolation resulted in a cooler tropical Indian Ocean, which weakened and shifted northward the westerly jet due to decreased meridional thermal gradient. The South Asian high moved northward in conjunction with the westerly jet, causing anomalous upwards over northern South Asia, the Tibetan Plateau, as well as southwestern and northern China. The associated anomalous cyclone over the Tibetan Plateau enhanced the monsoonal moisture transport, subsequently intensifying the ASM circulation and precipitation. The ASM was enhanced by the decrease in spring insolation and was weakened by the opposite. The abrupt decline of the ASM was associated with an increase in spring insolation superimposed on a decrease in summer insolation. Consequently, orbital‐scale ASM variability is dominated by the precession not only via insolation changes in summer but also changes in spring.

Asian summer monsoon responses under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in CESM large ensemble simulations

The response of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) circulation to the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) forcing scenarios is examined using the CESM1 state-of-the-art global circulation model from 2021 to 2050. The projections show that monsoon precipitation will increase over East Asia, the North Pacific Ocean, the Indian Peninsula, and the Bay of Bengal under the RCP4.5 scenario. Conversely, the South Indian Ocean, West Asia, the Middle East, and the Central Pacific Ocean exhibit a decreasing trend in precipitation. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, precipitation is projected to increase over a wider swath of the Indian Ocean and the Middle East Asia. In the RCP4.5 scenario, the low-level wind circulation is likely to strengthen over the entire northern Indian Ocean, extending to the South China Sea, thereby increasing moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to peninsular India and the South China Sea. Conversely, in the RCP8.5 scenario, easterly winds strengthen over the South Indian Ocean, leading to an increase in moisture transport from the equatorial West Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. A weak (strong) cyclonic circulation in response to the east-centered (west-centered) low sea level pressure trend over the North Pacific in RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario is projected to help maintaining a strong (weak) ASM circulation from the India to east Asia. Internal climate variability is also calculated, revealing that the North Pacific Ocean near the Bering Sea is likely to play a dominating role and contribute significantly to the future ASM dynamics. In both scenarios, internal variability is found to substantially contribute to changes in monsoon circulation over the Indian Ocean.

Future changes in South Asian summer monsoon circulation under global warming: role of the Tibetan Plateau latent heating

The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is a significant monsoon system that exerts a profound impact on climate and human livelihoods. According to 38 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, the SASM circulation is projected to weaken significantly under global warming as seen in the weakened low-level westerly wind over the northern tropical Indian Ocean; however, the associated climate dynamics is still under debate. Here, we identify that the weakened low-level westerly wind is closely related to the enhanced latent heating over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which corresponds with increased summer precipitation in the future. The intensified TP latent heating triggers an anomalous meridional circulation with ascending motions over the plateau and descending motions to the south, leading to an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the northern tropical Indian Ocean. This anticyclone greatly weakens the prevailing low-level westerlies of the SASM through easterly anomalies at the anticyclone’s southern flank. Moisture budget analysis further reveals that increased atmospheric water vapor, rather than the vertical dynamic component, makes the largest contribution to the increased precipitation over the TP. This result confirms that the enhanced TP latent heating is a driver of atmospheric circulation change and contributes to weakening the SASM circulation.

Using regional relaxation experiments to understand the development of errors in the Asian summer monsoon

Abstract. We describe the use of regional relaxation (“nudging”) experiments carried out in initialised hindcasts to shed light on the contribution from particular regions to the errors developing in the Asian summer monsoon. Results so far confirm previous hypotheses that errors in the Maritime Continent region contribute substantially to the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) circulation errors through their effects on the western North Pacific subtropical high. Locally forced errors over the Indian region also contribute to the EASM errors. Errors arising over the Maritime Continent region also affect the circulation and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Indian Ocean region, contributing to a persistent error pattern resembling a positive Indian Ocean dipole phase. This is associated with circulation errors over India and the strengthening and extension of the westerly jet across southeast Asia and the South China Sea into the western Pacific, thereby affecting the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulation and rainfall patterns as a whole. However, errors developing rapidly in the deeper equatorial Indian Ocean, apparently independently of the atmosphere errors, are also contributing to this bias pattern. Preliminary analysis of nudging increments over the Maritime Continent region suggests that these errors may at least partly be related to deficiencies in the convection and boundary layer parameterisations.

Quantifying the dynamical and radiative processes of the drastically weak South Asian summer monsoon circulation in 2015

The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation in 2015 is the weakest since 2000s, which results in severe drought over broad regions of the Indian peninsula. The 2015 SASM is closely related to the weakened summer meridional thermal contrast between southern Eurasia (SE) and the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) at the mid–upper troposphere. Based on an updated climate feedback-response analysis method, this study conducts a quantitative attribution analysis of the thermal contrast anomalies associated with the 2015 SASM to multiple dynamical and radiative processes, particular for aerosol process. Result shows that the 2015 weak SASM is mainly attributed to the effect of water vapor (58%), followed by the effects of atmospheric dynamics (18%), clouds (15%), and aerosols (15%), respectively. These positive effects are partially offset by the negative contribution from surface dynamic process (-14%). As the most pronounced factor, the water vapor process weakens the SASM circulation via inducing SE cooling and TIO warming, which is closely linked to the decreased (increased) specific humidity over SE (TIO). Further analysis indicates that the total effect of aerosols is dominated by the changes in black carbon and sea salt. As two important components, the SE cooling and TIO warming separately account for about 51% and 49% to the 2015 SASM. The former is mainly attributed to the cooling effect of clouds, while the latter is mainly induced by the warming effect of atmospheric dynamics. Our result provides a new insight into the 2015 weak SASM from a quantitative perspective.

The changes in south Asian summer monsoon circulation during the mid-Piacenzian warm period

The changes in south Asian summer monsoon circulation during the mid-Piacenzian warm period

Interaction between the Westerlies and Asian Monsoons in the Middle Latitudes of China: Review and Prospect

The westerly circulation and the monsoon circulation are the two major atmospheric circulation systems affecting the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which have significant impacts on climate and environmental changes in the middle latitudes. However, until now, people’s understanding of the long-term paleoenvironmental changes in the westerly- and monsoon-controlled areas in China’s middle latitudes is not uniform, and the phase relationship between the two at different time scales is also controversial, especially the exception to the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” paradigm in global warming between the two. Based on the existing literature data published, integrated paleoenvironmental records, and comprehensive simulation results in recent years, this study systematically reviews the climate and environmental changes in the two major circulation regions in the mid-latitudes of China since the Middle Pleistocene, with a focus on exploring the phase relationship between the two systems at different time scales and its influencing mechanism. Through the reanalysis and comparative analysis of the existing data, we conclude that the interaction and relationship between the two circulation systems are relatively strong and close during the warm periods, but relatively weak during the cold periods. From the perspective of orbital, suborbital, and millennium time scales, the phase relationship between the westerly and Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulations shows roughly in-phase, out-of-phase, and anti-phase transitions, respectively. There are significant differences between the impacts of the westerly and ASM circulations on the middle-latitude regions of northwest China, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and eastern China. However, under the combined influence of varied environmental factors such as BHLSR (boreal high-latitude solar radiation), SST (sea surface temperature), AMOC (north Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), NHI (Northern Hemisphere ice volume), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone), WPSH (western Pacific subtropical high), TIOA (tropical Indian Ocean anomaly), ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), CGT/SRP (global teleconnection/Silk Road pattern), etc., there is a complex and close coupling relationship between the two, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider their “multi-factor’s joint-action” mechanism and impact, while, in general, the dynamic mechanisms driving the changes of the westerly and ASM circulations are not the same at different time scales, such as orbital, suborbital, centennial to millennium, and decadal to interannual, which also leads to the formation of different types of phase relationships between the two at different time scales. Future studies need to focus on the impact of this “multi-factor linkage mechanism” and “multi-phase relationship” in distinguishing the interaction between the westerly and ASM circulation systems in terms of orbital, suborbital, millennium, and sub-millennium time scales.

Impact of spring land-surface conditions over the Tibetan Plateau on the early summer Asian monsoon using an AGCM large ensemble

Influence of land-surface memory effects over the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian summer monsoon has long been studied, but not quantified because of the difficulty of extracting only these effects from observational data. This study examines the impact of spring land-surface conditions, including surface air temperature (SAT) and snow cover, over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding regions on the early stage of the Asian summer monsoon using large-ensemble experiments produced by an atmospheric global climate model (AGCM). The results show that the above-normal SAT over and around the Tibetan Plateau in May can enhance June monsoon circulation without the sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. The physical mechanism behind this involves warmed surface air over the plateau enhancing the north–south SAT gradient, leading to strengthening the Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation. Inter-ensemble correlation analysis indicated that SAT warming over the plateau is clearly associated with upper-tropospheric anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies in May. Also, although winter land-surface signals do not persist until late spring, SAT anomalies in March tend to persist until May, explaining 10–20% of the total SAT variance in May. Interestingly, the spring SAT impacts on June monsoon circulations vary interannually, indicating that the contribution of the land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling process to interannual monsoon variability differs from year to year. Active L–A coupling years tend to coincide with cooler SSTs with anomalous low-level divergence and upper-level convergence over and around the Maritime continent, implying that SST forcing is associated with the L–A coupling strength. Specifically, in May of the developing stage of monsoon circulation, the weak Walker circulation over the equatorial and northern Indian Ocean and undeveloped monsoon circulation are suitable for the L–A coupling to influence the development of the monsoon circulation effectively. However, the well-known oceanic events, such as El Nin~\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\widetilde{n}}$$\\end{document}o, are found to be less connected with the interannual L–A coupling variations.

The offshore wind speed changes in China: an insight into CMIP6 model simulation and future projections

Offshore wind speed in China plays a key role in affecting air–sea interactions, coastal tides, and wind energy, but its changes in a warming climate and the associated causes remain unclear. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, this study evaluates the past and future variations of wind speed at 10 m (WS10) over China’s offshore seas in summer and winter. The results show that the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs well in simulating the climatological patterns (1981–2010) of WS10 for both seasons. The trends and leading variabilities in WS10 are also reasonably reproduced in the South China Sea (SCS). In the northern SCS, WS10 has strengthened during both seasons in the recent decades. In contrast, in the East China Sea (ECS), WS10 has increased (decreased) during summer (winter). Further attribution analysis suggests that the forcing of greenhouse gasses (aerosols) may make WS10 stronger (weaker) in the two seas and for both seasons, while natural variability tends to slow down (speed up) WS10 in the SCS and ECS during summer (winter). In addition, according to the CMIP6 model projections under various warming scenarios, WS10 is likely to increase over both the northern SCS and the ECS in summer, while WS10 will increase over the northern SCS but decrease over the ECS in winter. Differences in the projected WS10 changes in the ECS during summer and winter are attributed to the projected intensification (weakening) of the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation.

Warming-induced hydrothermal anomaly over the Earth’s three Poles amplifies concurrent extremes in 2022

Climate warming is causing an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves and extreme precipitation events, posing a threat to both socioeconomic stability and human lives. In 2022, five record-breaking heatwaves and floods occurred, it is suggested a new concurrent extreme feature in the study, which is linked to the three Poles warming and ice/snow melting. The independent and synergistic effect of the three Poles warming has led to the poleward movement of westerly jet streams and amplified Rossby waves, as well as the expansion of subtropical highs in both poleward and zonal directions. Consequently, these have intensified heatwaves in the mid-high latitudes and extreme precipitation events in the Asian regions, combined with a southward displacement and weakening of the inter-hemispheric Asian summer monsoon circulations, which are response to poleward of the mid-latitude and subtropical circulations and the hydrothermal effects of the three Poles. This study highlights the significance of three Poles warming in driving amplified concurrent extremes across tropical and extratropical regions, particularly in 2022. These findings provide valuable insights into the role of snow/ice melting and related hydrothermal factors in global climate predictions and disaster prevention efforts.

Precipitation variability related to atmospheric circulation patterns over the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractPrecipitation is affected by intricate atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic processes. Horizontal winds are frequently used to represent the dynamic component as winds play a critical role in transporting moisture. Previous studies on precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) focused on the influence of summer monsoons and westerlies in isolation. However, the collective seasonal dynamics and their combined effects on the precipitation distribution remain less explored. This study aims to determine the seasonal evolutions of the wind patterns and the associated regional precipitation patterns over the TP using a neural network approach and focuses on their interannual variability and long‐term trends. A self‐organizing map (SOM) was used to classify the wind patterns based on 500 hPa winds and related precipitation from the ERA5 reanalysis. The classified wind patterns show seasonal shifts between the Asian summer monsoon circulations and the westerlies along with the westerly jets migrating between the north and south of the TP from summer to winter. The locations of abundant precipitation during the winter and transition seasons are mainly associated with variations in the intensity and locations of the strong westerlies. There is a significant positive trend in the occurrences of the summer‐type wind pattern, which has likely led to a wetter TP, and an earlier‐ended winter and advanced spring wind patterns. The interannual variability of westerlies is highly related to the variability of precipitation in the western TP during its wet season (January–April). In the eastern TP, the interannual variability of the precipitation is linked to the wind patterns associated with the westerly jets to the south of the TP, while precipitation variability in the central TP is controlled by thermodynamic components. This study reveals the spatial precipitation distributions according to the different wind patterns and identifies the contributions from atmospheric components to the regional precipitation over the TP.

Characteristics of warming and humidification in the Yellow River's upper reaches and their impact on surface water resources

AbstractBased on multi‐source data, including observation, analysis, model calculation, satellite remote sensing, and scenario estimation data, this study has systematically analysed the warming and dry–wet change characteristics of the Yellow River's upper reaches in the last 60 years. The causes and features of the current warming and humidification and their impact on surface water resources are also discussed. This study found that since 1961, the average temperature in the Yellow River's upper reaches has increased at a rate of 0.37°C/10a, which is more significant than the increases observed for the world, China, and even northwest China in the same period. At the beginning of this century, the rate of change in precipitation in the Yellow River's upper reaches reversed direction from decreasing to increasing, with a significant increase (35 mm/10a) since 2000. Therefore, climate change has shown a significant warming and humidification trend in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. From the dynamic change perspective, the Yellow River's upper reaches were warming and drying in each climatic period from 1961 to 2010; however, the tendency towards dryness slowed period by period. In contrast, the region showed consistent warming and humidification from 1991 to 2020. From the perspective of multiple time scales, the change in average temperature is mainly dominated by the multi‐decadal scale. In contrast, precipitation is dominated by interannual change. The increase in the multi‐decadal component in average temperature and precipitation explains the current warming and humidification. Precipitation changes in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin are mainly affected by the westerly circulation, the East Asian summer monsoon, and the South Asian summer monsoon circulation systems. However, precipitation was affected by different circulation factors on different time scales. On an interannual scale, it was mainly affected by the South Asian summer monsoon circulation. On an interdecadal scale, it was mainly affected by the westerly wind and the East Asian summer monsoon circulation. On a multi‐decadal scale, it was jointly influenced by the westerly wind, the East Asian summer monsoon, and the South Asian summer monsoon circulation. Under the control of multi‐decadal synergistic enhancement of the westerly, the East Asian summer monsoon, and the South Asian summer monsoon circulations, the vertical field shows an abnormal upward movement. There has been a significant abnormal easterly and southerly airflow that transports water vapour, and cold air is transported along the northwest airflow at the back of the Mongolian cyclone, which makes the climate in the upper reaches of the Yellow River more humid. The warming and humidifying of the upper reaches of the Yellow River has significantly increased runoff and lake area and significantly degraded the frozen soil. The surface water budget in the Yellow River's upper reaches has significantly responded to the current warming and humidification. The actual surface evapotranspiration and surface runoff increased significantly, but the net surface water budget still showed a decreasing trend. The increase in precipitation did not change the surface water deficit.

Spatial influence of the Asian Summer Monsoon on pollen assemblages of the Tibetan Plateau and its potential implication for the interpretation of fossil pollen records

The direction and intensity of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) circulation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region strongly influence pollen dispersal patterns; however, this spatial effect has been rarely quantified. In this paper, we explore the relative importance of this directional spatial effect. Specifically, we construct a wind connectivity diagram for modern pollen sample sites according to the prevailing monsoon direction, and extract latent spatial variables representing the directional process of the ASM, using the method of asymmetric eigenvector maps. We fit redundancy analysis models using both spatial variables and local climate factors, and conduct variation partitioning to quantify the effect of directional spatial effect by the ASM. Taking into account the joint effect with local climate, the directional spatial process induced by the ASM significantly explains the variation of pollen assemblages on the TP. The effect is detected in pollen groups with contrasting functional types and dispersal modes; for example, the composition of arboreal pollen and non-arboreal pollen are both significantly affected by the ASM, yet best explained by models assuming different monsoon directions. Anemophilous pollen shows a higher percentage of variation explained by the ASM than non-anemophilous pollen. Our results indicate that directional processes induced by the monsoon is an important influence on pollen assemblages in the TP and support the idea that deposition patterns of pollen, especially arboreal pollen is a useful proxy for studying monsoon evolution. A similar approach can also be applied to paleomonsoon simulations using fossil pollen records. The role of directional dispersal in affecting fossil pollen composition and abundance by prevailing winds deserves further investigation when undertaking Quaternary paleoenvironmental reconstructions using pollen.

Holocene climatic controls on flooding regime along the Ussuri River in Northeast Asia

Knowledge of the long-term flooding response to climatic changes is critical for probing the flooding future in an oncoming warmer world. In this paper, three well-dated wetland sedimentary cores with high-resolution grain-size records were employed to reconstruct the historical flooding regime along the Ussuri River during the past 7000 years. The results show that five flooding-prone intervals marked by increased mean rates of sand-fraction accumulation occurred at 6.4–5.9 ka BP, 5.5–5.1 ka BP, 4.6–3.1 ka BP, 2.3–1.8 ka BP, and 0.5–0 ka BP, respectively. These intervals are generally consistent with the higher mean annual precipitation controlled by the strengthened East Asian summer monsoon which has been widely documented in geological records across the monsoonal regions of East Asia. Considering the prevalent monsoonal climate along the modern Ussuri River, we suggest that the regional flooding evolution during the Holocene Epoch should be generally controlled by the East Asian summer monsoon circulation which was initially linked to the ENSO activities in the tropical Pacific Ocean. While for the last interval spanning 0.5–0 ka BP, human influence, compared with the long-serving climatic controls, has played a more critical role in driving the regional flooding regime.

Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983-2020.

Observed synoptic anomalies in connection with China's extreme precipitation events/floods in the summers of 1982/83, 1997/98, 2010, 2014, 2015/16, and 2020 are studied. These events mainly occur within the middle and lower Yangtze basins. The dominant moisture source is the Northern Indian Ocean and the Southwestern Pacific Ocean of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Both of these bodies of water have warmed since 1979. In East Asia, the strong land-sea thermal contrast driven by global warming drives the increased East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation, which develops deep convective precipitation. The total precipitable water in the Indo-Pacific region has also been increasing since 1979. The intense southwest Indian monsoon transports moist air to the Yangtze basin in mid-June and forms the Meiyu (plum rain) front. Strengthened Okhotsk/Ural blocking highs in East and West Asia, as well as the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the South Asian high (SAH) over south Eurasia, remain stationary for long periods and interact to exacerbate the precipitation. The western edge of the WPSH expands westward towards East Asia to transport moisture. To the north, the WPSH combines with the two blocking highs to trigger more rain. The intensified SAH expands eastward and merges with the extended WPSH to add rain. On the other hand, rainfall is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), notably in relation to the super El Niño events in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2020. The research described in this paper highlights changes in the weather systems with warming and, in particular, the enormous and dominating impact of the warming and expanding IPWP on rainfall extremes. Improved seasonal forecasts and planning ahead will protect lives and livelihoods.

Link between the Land–Sea Thermal Contrast and the Asian Summer Monsoon

Abstract The land–sea thermal contrast is the foundation of the occurrences of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). Using multiobservational datasets and model simulations covering the period 1960–2018, this study investigates the relationship that links the thermal contrast between the Asian landmass and the Indian Ocean (TCAI) to the ASM and evaluates the effects of the various driving factors that influence the TCAI in the climate models. The tropospheric TCAI is highly consistent with the ASM circulation, with a stronger ASM circulation and larger tropospheric TCAI before the 1970s and after the late 1990s than those seen from the 1970s to the late 1990s. The tropospheric TCAI is also closely related to rainfall over the Indian landmass and the south-flood–north-drought pattern over eastern China. Thus, the tropospheric TCAI reliably reflects the state of the ASM system and could be used as a new ASM index that directly describes the land–sea thermal contrast. The variation of the surface TCAI is highly consistent with that of the tropospheric TCAI. The model simulation suggests that the main drivers of the surface TCAI are anthropogenic forcing and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Anthropogenic forcing dominates SAT variations over the Indian Ocean, whereas the AMO plays a major role in SAT variations over the Asian landmass, which introduces a large uncertainty into the projections of the ASM.

Formation and evolution of the Asian landscape during the Cenozoic

<p>Asia has a unique set of landscapes, notably characterized by the highest plateau in the world, the strongest monsoon circulation, and an immense arid region. When and how this landscape was formed have long been investigated, but explanations remain elusive. In this paper, through a synthesis of both terrestrial and marginal marine sedimentary records and numerical simulation analyses, we propose that tectonic uplift/deformation and global cooling during the Cenozoic have controlled the evolution of Asian topography and climate, respectively, and, the Asian landscape. The Asian landscape has undergone three main stages of evolution, <i>viz</i>: development of low-relief topography and warm-dry climate during the Eocene (~50-34 Ma); emergence of high relief topography in the southwest, along with a diverse range of landforms elsewhere, associated with a warm monsoon-arid climate coupling system during the Oligocene to early Pliocene (34-3.0 Ma); and development of the typical Asian summer and winter monsoon circulation and present landscape since the late Pliocene, accompanied by significant global cooling. Our analyses reveal that the distribution of river catchments, flora, fauna and soils are controlled by tectonic uplift/deformation and palaeoclimate changes. Stepwise evolution of the Asian landscape since ~50 Ma was driven by tectonic deformation and global temperature changes, each of which may play different role(s) in landscape evolution. For instance, the India-Asia collision played a vital role in the formation of the Asian topographic configuration in the middle Eocene, which generated regional atmospheric circulation. On the other hand, global cooling during the late Pliocene played an important role in generating the modern-like Asian landscape including the rapid accumulation of loess deposits, strengthening of the Asian monsoon circulation, and the evolution of modern topography. To summarize, we broadly propose a three-stage history of landscape evolution in Asia during the Cenozoic. The detailed processes of Asian landscape evolution and the specific roles of tectonism and global temperature in controlling Asian landscapes and palaeoclimate evolution need to be further investigated.</p>

A Multimodel Investigation of Asian Summer Monsoon UTLS Transport Over the Western Pacific

AbstractThe Asian summer monsoon (ASM) as a chemical transport system is investigated using a suite of models in preparation for an airborne field campaign over the Western Pacific. Results show that the dynamical process of anticyclone eddy shedding in the upper troposphere rapidly transports convectively uplifted Asian boundary layer air masses to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Western Pacific. The models show that the transported air masses contain significantly enhanced aerosol loading and a complex chemical mixture of trace gases that are relevant to ozone chemistry. The chemical forecast models consistently predict the occurrence of the shedding events, but the predicted concentrations of transported trace gases and aerosols often differ between models. The airborne measurements to be obtained in the field campaign are expected to help reduce the model uncertainties. Furthermore, the large‐scale seasonal chemical structure of the monsoon system is obtained from modeled carbon monoxide, a tracer of the convective transport of pollutants, which provides a new perspective of the ASM circulation, complementing the dynamical characterization of the monsoon.