Quantifying the dynamical and radiative processes of the drastically weak South Asian summer monsoon circulation in 2015

Abstract

The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation in 2015 is the weakest since 2000s, which results in severe drought over broad regions of the Indian peninsula. The 2015 SASM is closely related to the weakened summer meridional thermal contrast between southern Eurasia (SE) and the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) at the mid–upper troposphere. Based on an updated climate feedback-response analysis method, this study conducts a quantitative attribution analysis of the thermal contrast anomalies associated with the 2015 SASM to multiple dynamical and radiative processes, particular for aerosol process. Result shows that the 2015 weak SASM is mainly attributed to the effect of water vapor (58%), followed by the effects of atmospheric dynamics (18%), clouds (15%), and aerosols (15%), respectively. These positive effects are partially offset by the negative contribution from surface dynamic process (-14%). As the most pronounced factor, the water vapor process weakens the SASM circulation via inducing SE cooling and TIO warming, which is closely linked to the decreased (increased) specific humidity over SE (TIO). Further analysis indicates that the total effect of aerosols is dominated by the changes in black carbon and sea salt. As two important components, the SE cooling and TIO warming separately account for about 51% and 49% to the 2015 SASM. The former is mainly attributed to the cooling effect of clouds, while the latter is mainly induced by the warming effect of atmospheric dynamics. Our result provides a new insight into the 2015 weak SASM from a quantitative perspective.