Asian-Pacific Oscillation Index Research Articles

Interdecadal variability of summer extreme rainfall in the Huai River basin of China associated with the Asian‐Pacific Oscillation

AbstractUsing the rainfall data at rain gauge stations in China and the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis, the daily Asian‐Pacific Oscillation (APO) index, a tropospheric temperature thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific, is constructed to investigate an interdecadal relationship between summer (June–July) APO and rainfall in the Huai River basin (HRB) of central‐eastern China. The daily APO index averaged over June 22–July 12 shows an interdecadal shift around the late 1990s. This shift is characterized by a negative phase of the daily APO index during 1987–1996 and a subsequent positive phase during 1997–2006. Accompanying this shift, the occurrence frequency, intensity and amount of extreme rainfall events remarkably increase in the HRB region. The increased rainfall can be reasonably explained by the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Corresponding to the decadal change in the summer daily APO from the negative phase to the positive one, the subtropical high pressure over the western North Pacific moves toward the north and easterly wind anomalies in the middle and lower layers of the troposphere prevail over extratropical East Asia, which strengthens water vapour convergence, the instability of atmospheric stratification and upward motion anomalies in the HRB region.

The Asian–Pacific oscillation over the past millennium in PMIP3 and PMIP4

Atmospheric oscillations in the upper troposphere can exert considerable impacts on regional and global climate change. The Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO), a recently identified upper-tropospheric teleconnection is not yet well documented during the last millennium. Here we use 13 models from Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 3 and 4 (PMIP3 and PMIP4, respectively) to first assess their ability in simulating the climatology and interannual variability of the APO in recent decades, and then examine the changes in APO over the last millennium and attribute the associated sources. The evaluation indicates that the models show high fidelity to the observed climatological horizontal and vertical distributions of the boreal summer APO, with the PMIP4 models outperforming the PMIP3 ones. And the majority of the models can reasonably reproduce the out-of-phase teleconnection pattern over the Asia–North Pacific sector and the interannual variability of the APO index (APOI). During the last millennium, the APOI exhibits a remarkable decreasing trend, and the indices averaged in the MCA (LIA) are significantly larger (smaller) referring to the whole millennium. In warm/cold periods, APO changes over East Asia can be attributed to the Tibetan Plateau heating-induced condensation latent heat and the northern part of the East Asian summer monsoon-associated latent heat, whereas the changes over the North Pacific originate from dry adiabatic heat and the superposed weak offsetting latent heat. Additionally, the APOI reveals a notable interannual scale cycle at around five years.

Reconstruction of maximum temperature on Zhegu Mountain, western Sichuan Plateau (China)

Historical temperature reconstructions at high altitudes are still insufficient in southwestern China, which is considered one of the most sensitive areas to climate change in the world. Here we developed a tree ring-width chronology of Faxon firAbies fargesiivar.faxonianaat the upper timber line on Zhegu Mountain, Miyaluo Scenic Area, western Sichuan, China. The climate-tree growth relationship analysis indicated temperature as the dominant regulator on radial tree growth in this region. The reconstruction of aggregated maximum temperature (TMX) of autumn and winter for the period 1856-2016 was achieved with a linear regression model that accounted for 43.6% of the actual variability in the common time series (1954-2016). The reconstruction identified 4 warm periods and 3 cold periods. Similarities of warm and cold periods with previously published reconstructions from nearby sites indicated the reliability of our reconstruction. The significant positive correlation between TMX reconstruction and the Asian-Pacific Oscillation index and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index suggested a linkage between large-scale climate circulations and the thermal variability at a multi-decadal scale on the western Sichuan Plateau. We also found that solar activity exerted a strong influence on decadal temperature variability in this region. The cold periods were matched well with historical large volcanic eruptions. Our results strengthen the historical climatic information in southwestern China and contribute to further understanding the regional thermal variability as well as its driving mechanism.

Influence of Asian-Pacific Oscillation on Precipitation in Central Eastern China during Autumn (1960–2016)

The Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) plays an important role in precipitation in Central Eastern China (CEC). This study analyzed observational and reanalysis data to investigate CEC precipitation during autumn (1960–2016) and its association with the APO. The APO index (APOI) was redefined, and an autumn CEC precipitation index (CECPI) was calculated to elucidate the relationship between the APO and CEC precipitation. Significant positive correlation (correlation coefficient: 0.60) was found between the APOI and CECPI. Further analysis revealed anomalous southerly winds at 850 hPa over CEC when the APO was strong, which corresponded to anomalous strengthened (weakened) sea level pressure and increased 500-hPa geopotential height over Asia (the Pacific), together with strong meridional shear of the East Asian jet. This configuration is conducive to transportation of warm moist air to CEC during strong APOI years (SAY), but the effect is much diminished during weak APOI years. Moreover, strengthening of both the Walker Circulation of the tropical Pacific and the anomalous upward movement (and convergence) over the Western Pacific (WP) observed during SAY is also conducive to the formation of precipitation in CEC. A possible physical explanation for the close association of the APO with tropical circulation changes is that decreased (increased) sea surface temperature in the tropical eastern Pacific (WP and extratropical Pacific) is beneficial for stimulating a strong APO teleconnection pattern, which further affects precipitation in CEC by strengthening the connection between tropical and subtropical regions.

Characteristics of the Asian–Pacific oscillation in boreal summer simulated by BCC_CSM with different horizontal resolutions

The summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) is a major teleconnection pattern that reflects the zonal thermal contrast between East Asia and the North Pacific in the upper troposphere. The performance of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Models (BCC_CSMs) with different horizontal resolutions, i.e., BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1(m), in reproducing APO interannual variability, APO-related precipitation anomalies, and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies, is evaluated. The results show that BCC_CSM1.1(m) can successfully capture the interannual variability of the summer APO index. It is also more capable in reproducing the APO’s spatial pattern, compared to BCC_CSM1.1, due to its higher horizontal resolution. Associated with a positive APO index, the northward-shifted and intensified South Asian high, strengthened extratropical westerly jet, and tropical easterly jet in the upper troposphere, as well as the southwesterly monsoonal flow over North Africa and the Indian Ocean in the lower troposphere, are realistically represented by BCC_CSM1.1(m), leading to an improvement in reproducing the increased precipitation over tropical North Africa, South Asia, and East Asia, as well as the decreased precipitation over subtropical North Africa, Japan, and North America. In contrast, these features are less consistent with observations when simulated by BCC_CSM1.1. Regression analysis further indicates that surface temperature anomalies over the North Pacific and the southern and western flanks of the Tibetan Plateau are reasonably reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1(m), which contributes to the substantial improvement in the simulation of the characteristics of summer APO compared to that of BCC_CSM1.1.

Anomalies of Northern Hemisphere ozone associated with a tropopause‐lower stratosphere teleconnection during summer

ABSTRACTUsing the ozone data set from the satellite observations and the atmospheric reanalysis data sets during 1979–2005, we examine the variability of a tropopause‐lower stratosphere (TS) teleconnection a and its relationship with the ozone change over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during summer. The TS teleconnection has an approximate opposite phase to that in the upper‐troposphere Asian‐Pacific Oscillation (APO), and the TS teleconnection index (the TS index) is also related well to the APO index. Corresponding to a higher TS index, the ozone generally decreases in the NH mid‐high latitudes (near 40°N and the Far East of Russia). This link between the TS teleconnection and the ozone is physically supported by the changes of the background atmospheric circulation. When the TS index is higher, the decrease of the ozone is closely associated with an increase of the local tropopause height. The upward and downward motion variations in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere in the east and west parts of the anomalous anticyclones associated with the TS index strengthen the exchanges of the ozone between the troposphere and the lower stratosphere, which may cause a decrease of the ozone. The horizontal advection of the ozone could also contribute to the ozone decreases over these regions.

Asian–Pacific Oscillation signal from a Qomolangma (Mount Everest) ice-core chemical record

AbstractThe Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) is a climate pattern related to the thermal differences between the Asian continent and the north Pacific. We present a 1000 year record of the major ions in a 108.83 m ice core from east Rongbuk glacier (28°01′ N, 86°58′ E; 6518ma.s.l.) on the northeast slope of Qomolangma (Mount Everest), and discuss its relationship with a 993 year time series of the summer APO index that has been reconstructed from Beijing’s summer temperature (recorded by a stalagmite) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that crustal major ions (Mg2+, Ca2+, SO42– and NO3–) are highly loaded on EOF1, whereas marine major ions (Cl– and Na+) are highly loaded on EOF2. Higher EOF1 is associated with lower upper-troposphere temperature (UTT) over Mongolia, corresponding to a lower APO index and higher surface pressure. Higher EOF2 is associated with higher UTT over Mongolia, corresponding to a higher APO index and lower surface pressure. The higher burden of major ions and higher summer APO index during the period AD 1000–1323 may be due to drought and warm climate of the major-ion source regions. From AD1323 to 1900, EOF1 and EOF2 do not show a consistent correlation with summer APO index, indicating the complex mechanisms of ion transport over the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP) during this period. After AD 1900, the summer APO index is correlated negatively with EOF1 and positively with EOF2, indicating that ion transport over the southern TP during this period is influenced significantly by the APO. Our examinations of the PDO index and major-ion record show that higher PDO corresponds to higher EOF1 and lower EOF2. This suggests that the correlation between the recorded major-ion concentration and the APO index originates in the seesaw relationship in temperature between the Asian continent and the north Pacific.

A reconstruction of the Asia‐Pacific Oscillation Index for the past 1500 years and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

ABSTRACTThere is a need to understand the long‐term variability Asian‐Pacific Oscillation (APO) due to its close linkages with large‐scale ocean–atmosphere anomalies. The first principal component (PC) of a network of 130 temperature proxies covering East Asia and the northeastern Pacific Ocean was employed to reconstruct the instrumental APO index from 500 to 2006. It explains 46.7% of the instrumental APO variance and correlates significantly with middle to upper tropospheric temperatures. The reconstructed APO reaches its peak in the Little Ice Age (LIA) and is low during the Medieval Climate Anomalies (MCA) period and since the 1850. The APO variations are caused by the temperature difference between East Asia and north Central Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDOs) and tropical ocean‐atmospheric features [the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)] are reversely connected to APO variations particularly on long timescale (e.g. centennial timescale) and short timescale (e.g. interannual), respectively, possibly via modulating the strength of the Asian summer monsoon. However, the relationship between the APO and both external forcings (e.g. solar irradiation) and the PDO are quite variable, which is significant only when the influences of the coupled ocean‐atmosphere patterns are weakened. The APO is positively correlated with indices of the hydroclimate of Monsoonal Asia, and is negatively associated with climatic indices for western North America.

Is the Interannual Variability of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation Predictable?

Abstract The summer (June–August) Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) measures the interannual variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Asian–North Pacific Ocean sector. In this study, the authors assess the predictability of the summer APO index interannual variability and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies using the 1959–2001 hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), and the Met Office (UKMO) general circulation models from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. The results show that these models predict the summer APO index interannual variability well and have higher skill for the North Pacific than for the Asian upper-tropospheric temperature. Meanwhile, the observed APO-related atmospheric circulation anomalies in the South Asian high, the tropical easterly wind jet over the Asian monsoon region in the upper troposphere, the subtropical anticyclone over the North Pacific, and the summer southwest monsoon over Asia in the lower troposphere are reasonably well predicted in their spatial patterns and intensities. Compared with the observations, however, these models display low skill in predicting the long-term varying trends of the upper-tropospheric temperature over the Asian–North Pacific sector or the APO index during 1959–2001.

Reconstructed precipitation for the north-central China over the past 380 years and its linkages to East Asian summer monsoon variability

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in north-central China. Long-term information about the history of drought is still limited because the instrumental records for many areas in north-central China go back only a few decades at best. This paper presents an earlywood width (EWW) chronology of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) in the Shimen Mountains, Tianshui, eastern Gansu, north-central China. The climate-response analysis shows that April–July precipitation is the main factor limiting the earlywood growth of Chinese pines in the Shimen Mountains, Tianshui. Based on the EWW chronology, an April–July precipitation reconstruction for the period A.D. 1629–2008 was developed for Tianshui. The climate/tree-growth model accounts for 41.6% of the observed precipitation variance during the period 1953–2008. Spatial analysis shows that the precipitation reconstruction contains a strong common drought signal for north-central China. Reconstructed drought events are compared to a precipitation reconstruction of Huashan and historical archives for north-central China. The results reveal common climatic extremes over much of north-central China. Moreover, some dry periods coincided with solar minima or volcanic eruptions over the past several hundred years. Multi-taper spectral analysis reveals the existence of significant 3.8-year (90%), 3.1-year (95%), 2.7-year (99%), 2.4-year (99%) and 2.0-year (99%) periods of variability. The linkages to the Asian-Pacific Oscillation Index suggest regional precipitation variations may be linked to the East Asian summer monsoon circulations.

Boreal summer continental monsoon rainfall and hydroclimate anomalies associated with the Asian-Pacific Oscillation

With the twentieth century analysis data (1901–2002) for atmospheric circulation, precipitation, Palmer drought severity index, and sea surface temperature (SST), we show that the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) during boreal summer is a major mode of the earth climate variation linking to global atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate anomalies, especially the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer land monsoon. Associated with a positive APO phase are the warm troposphere over the Eurasian land and the relatively cool troposphere over the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean. Such an amplified land–ocean thermal contrast between the Eurasian land and its adjacent oceans signifies a stronger than normal NH summer monsoon, with the strengthened southerly or southwesterly monsoon prevailing over tropical Africa, South Asia, and East Asia. A positive APO implies an enhanced summer monsoon rainfall over all major NH land monsoon regions: West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Mexico. Thus, APO is a sensible measure of the NH land monsoon rainfall intensity. Meanwhile, reduced precipitation appears over the arid and semiarid regions of northern Africa, the Middle East, and West Asia, manifesting the monsoon-desert coupling. On the other hand, surrounded by the cool troposphere over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, the extratropical North America has weakened low-level continental low and upper-level ridge, hence a deficient summer rainfall. Corresponding to a high APO index, the African and South Asian monsoon regions are wet and cool, the East Asian monsoon region is wet and hot, and the extratropical North America is dry and hot. Wet and dry climates correspond to wet and dry soil conditions, respectively. The APO is also associated with significant variations of SST in the entire Pacific and the extratropical North Atlantic during boreal summer, which resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in SST. Of note is that the Pacific SST anomalies are not present throughout the year, rather, mainly occur in late spring, peak at late summer, and are nearly absent during boreal winter. The season-dependent APO–SST relationship and the origin of the APO remain elusive.

Decadal-centennial-scale change in Asian-Pacific summer thermal contrast and solar activity

To study the temporally varying features of summer thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent ocean on decadal-centennial time scales and the links between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, we used a time series of the reconstructed Asian-Pacific oscillation index and solar irradiance over the past millennium. The results showed that thermal contrast in the Asian monsoon region has quasi-90-year, 10–13-year, and 3–7-year periods. On the centennial time scale, thermal contrast showed three abrupt changes, occurring in 1305–1315, 1420–1430, and 1625–1635. There is a significant positive correlation between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, which is particularly strong at 250-year, 120–160-year, 60–70-year, and quasi-15-year periods. The three abrupt changes in thermal contrast corresponded to a significantly weakening or strengthening of solar irradiance, lagging 12–22 years behind the solar irradiance, which possibly reflects an effect of solar irradiance on the abrupt change in Asian monsoon climate on the centennial time scale. On the decadal time scale, the abrupt change in the thermal contrast was not closely associated with solar irradiance, which implies that solar activity may not be a major factor affecting the decadal abrupt change in Asian-Pacific thermal contrast. Relative to thermal contrast, the decadal abrupt change in Northern Hemispheric annual mean surface temperature is more closely associated with solar activity, while its centennial abrupt change has a weaker relationship with solar activity.

A 150-year reconstructed summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation index and its association with precipitation over eastern China

Reconstructing the long-term series of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indices may help understand long-term variability of EASM and its associations with precipitation. In this study, the summer middle–upper tropospheric temperature over the Asian–North Pacific sector is reconstructed from sea level pressure during the past 150 years, and then an atmospheric thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific, called the Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) index, is calculated from the reconstructed temperature. The results show that the APO phenomenon may occur in the reconstructed temperature fields, and its index has a significant positive/negative correlation with SST over the extratropical North Pacific/the tropical central–eastern Pacific in the past 150 years. The reconstructed summer APO index shows inter-decadal variability, with a positive phase in the 1870–1890s, the 1920s, and the 1940–1970s, indicating a stronger thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific, and with a negative phase in the 1860s, the 1900–1910s, and the 1980–1990s, indicating a weaker thermal contrast. Corresponding to a higher APO index in earlier decades of the twentieth century, there are more rainfall to the south of the Yangtze River and over North China and less rainfall over the Huaihe River valley. In the recent decades, however, more- and less-rain belts shifted southwards when the APO index is higher. During 1850–1900, the reconstructed APO index also showed a significant positive correlation with precipitation in some regions of North China.

A summer teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and associated mechanisms

Using monthly data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year reanalysis (ERA-40), we have revealed a teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere through the empirical orthogonal function analysis of summer upper-tropospheric eddy temperature. When temperature is higher (lower) over the Eastern Hemisphere (EH), it is lower (higher) over the Western Hemisphere (WH). The teleconnection manifested by this out-of-phase relationship is referred to as the Asian–Pacific oscillation (APO). The values of an index measuring the teleconnection are high before 1976 and low afterwards, showing a downward trend of the stationary wave at a rate of 4% per year during 1958–2001. The index also exhibits apparent interannual variations. When the APO index is high, anomalous upper-tropospheric highs (lows) appear over EH (WH). The formation of APO is likely associated with a zonal vertical circulation in the troposphere. Unforced control runs of both the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 3 and the Community Climate System Model version 3 capture the major characteristics of the teleconnection pattern and its associated vertical structure. The APO variability is closely associated with sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific, with a significantly positive correlation between APO and SST in the extratropical North Pacific and a significantly negative correlation in the tropical eastern Pacific. Sensitivity experiments show that the anomalies of SST over these two regions influence the APO intensity, but their effects are opposite to each other. Compared to the observation, the positive and negative anomalous centers of the extratropical tropospheric temperature triggered by the SST anomalies have a smaller spatial scale.

Asian-Pacific Oscillation index and variation of East Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium

To study the long-term variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), the Asian-Pacific Oscillation index (IAPO), representing a zonal thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific, is reconstructed over the past millennium. During the Little Ice Age (LIA), the variability of the reconstructed IAPO is closely linked to dry-wet anomalies in eastern China on the centennial scale. This correlation pattern is consistent with the observation during the current period, which suggests that the reconstructed IAPO may generally represent the centennial-scale variation of the EASM and rainfall anomalies over eastern China during the LIA.

An Asian–Pacific teleconnection in summer tropospheric temperature and associated Asian climate variability

We identified the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and its associated index, a zonal teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Asian-Pacific region. This was done through the correlation and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on the summer mean tropospheric eddy temperature from the monthly European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis. The APO reflects an out-of-phase relationship in variability of the eddy temperature between Asia and the North Pacific and is associated with the out-of-phase relationship in atmospheric heating. The APO index shows a decadal variation, tending to a high-index polarity before 1975 and afterward to a low-index polarity. Moreover, the APO index has a quasi-5-year period. With higher APO-index conditions in the upper troposphere, the summer South Asian high and the North Pacific trough are stronger, while the westerly jet stream over Asia and the easterly jet stream over South Asia strengthen. Also, the Asian low and the North Pacific subtropical high are stronger in the lower troposphere. The anomalous southerlies prevail at the midlatitudes of East Asia, accompanied by a more northward Mei-yu front, and the anomalous westerlies prevail over South Asia. Summer rainfall increases in North China, South China, and South Asia, while it decreases from the valley of the Yangtze River to southern Japan, and near the Philippines.