Reconstructed precipitation for the north-central China over the past 380 years and its linkages to East Asian summer monsoon variability

Abstract

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in north-central China. Long-term information about the history of drought is still limited because the instrumental records for many areas in north-central China go back only a few decades at best. This paper presents an earlywood width (EWW) chronology of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) in the Shimen Mountains, Tianshui, eastern Gansu, north-central China. The climate-response analysis shows that April–July precipitation is the main factor limiting the earlywood growth of Chinese pines in the Shimen Mountains, Tianshui. Based on the EWW chronology, an April–July precipitation reconstruction for the period A.D. 1629–2008 was developed for Tianshui. The climate/tree-growth model accounts for 41.6% of the observed precipitation variance during the period 1953–2008. Spatial analysis shows that the precipitation reconstruction contains a strong common drought signal for north-central China. Reconstructed drought events are compared to a precipitation reconstruction of Huashan and historical archives for north-central China. The results reveal common climatic extremes over much of north-central China. Moreover, some dry periods coincided with solar minima or volcanic eruptions over the past several hundred years. Multi-taper spectral analysis reveals the existence of significant 3.8-year (90%), 3.1-year (95%), 2.7-year (99%), 2.4-year (99%) and 2.0-year (99%) periods of variability. The linkages to the Asian-Pacific Oscillation Index suggest regional precipitation variations may be linked to the East Asian summer monsoon circulations.