Asian Demand Research Articles

Oil Security Issues in Asia and the Pacific

By 2010, demand for oil in developing Asia substantially exceeded that of North America and Europe combined, but demand for natural gas has been expanding rapidly and countries with large coal resources have used them instead of oil wherever possible. The goal of oil security is to make domestic economies and the international market adaptable to changes in availability and price. Increasing oil production and decreasing demand; producing more alternatives; and increasing stocks, fungibility, and market responsiveness augment security while subsidies diminish it. The threat today is not targeted cutoffs; it is price spikes, and strategic reserves can help counter them. Lack of specification restricts the free flow of petroleum products and therefore decreases regional energy security; fungibility would be greatly increased if there were some degree of standardization. In 2010, 76% of all Middle East exports went to Asia, but oil from the Middle East and Africa will not satisfy the growing Asian demand. Asian refining capacity cannot, however, cope with the large undeveloped resources in the Americas from super-heavy deposits or tar sands. A flourishing benchmark futures market east of Suez would help to ensure fair pricing and to moderate long-term price fluctuations.

A growing Asian demand quality

A growing Asian demand quality

New Caledonia

New Caledonia David Chappell (bio) With two years left before a possible referendum on independence, as stipulated in the Noumea Accord of 1998, local leaders struggled to position themselves for an “exit” from that transitional agreement. The provincial elections of 2014 may decide whether a referendum will be held or perhaps another accord will be negotiated. Fluctuations in metropolitan politics have had a significant impact on New Caledonia, notably in 1958 (when nationalist Charles de Gaulle regained power) and 1981 (when Socialist Fran-çois Mitterrand became president). French presidential elections in May 2012 saw the fall of Gaullist President Nicholas Sarkozy after only one term and the return to power of the Socialists for the first time since 1995, this time under François Hollande. Locally, the year-old alliance between the loyalist Rassemblement-ump (or rump, tied to Sarkozy’s Union pour un Mouvement Populaire) and the pro-sovereignty Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (flnks) suffered a setback in the June elections to the French parliament. Former territorial President Philippe Gomès’s loyalist Calédonie Ensemble (ce, Caledonia Together) won both New Caledonian deputy seats in Paris. In regional relations, the ce objected to a visit to New Caledonia by Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama of Fiji, the head of the Melanesian Spearhead Group, arguing that he has been a military dictator since his 2006 coup. Labor unions remained active, as the cost of living remained high while world nickel prices plummeted due to a slowdown in middle-class Asian demand for stainless steel. But French development aid continued to flow amid local concerns over lingering social and ethnic inequalities. Sarkozy had proclaimed to French voters that he would strongly defend the “eternal France” of Molière, Napoleon, and Charles de Gaulle, but Hollande reminded listeners that Louis XVI lost his head to the guillotine during the French Revolution and it was the left’s turn to govern the country. Hollande opposed austerity budget cuts during the European Union’s financial crisis and instead wanted to raise taxes on the rich (bbc, 20 April, 28 Sept 2012). Sarkozy had inherited the commitment of his predecessor, Jacques Chirac, to the Noumea Accord, so transfers of self-governing powers to New Caledonia continued, most recently in civil and commercial law and civil security. But Sarkozy had also voiced his personal preference that the country should remain in the French republic, whereas Hollande remained neutral and supported an open public debate among all New Caledonians to decide their future status. Hollande and Sarkozy both wanted to promote more competition [End Page 382] among importers who kept the cost of living so high in New Caledonia, but neither wanted to end the “indexation” that paid French civil servants and retirees almost twice what they would earn in France (nc, 21 April 2012). In the second-round runoff, Sarkozy won 63 percent of the ballots in New Caledonia and 53 percent in French Polynesia, but Hollande won the French presidency; he also won clear majorities in the two Kanak-ruled provinces of New Caledonia and in Wallis and Futuna (pir, 7 May 2012; nc, 23 April 2012). Hollande appointed Victorin Lurel of Guadeloupe as overseas minister, replacing a Gaullist predecessor, also from Guadeloupe. The flnks praised Lurel as a fellow “islander,” while loyalists said he knew nothing about the Pacific (nc, 18 May 2012). In the June elections, the rump lost its long monopoly over local representation in Paris when Gomès and Sonia Lagarde of the ce won in the second-round runoff. At first, it had looked as if the flnks might win the deputy seat for the interior of the main island, Grande Terre, because its two main parties, the Union Calédonienne (uc) and Palika (Parti de Libération Kanak), ran on the same list for once. After receiving a plurality in the first round of voting, Jean-Pierre Djaiwé of Palika was interviewed by the local newspaper before the second round, as was Gomès, who came in second in the interior in the first round, having been mayor of La Foa for twenty years. Djaiwé was pleased that the reunited flnks had clearly beaten the Rassemblement...

Indigenous Agency: Customary Rights and Tribal Protection in Eastern India, 1830-1930

reserves of iron, bauxite and water, all crucially contested in the spiralling Asian demand for minerals and metals. The rural population of these heav- ily forested regions consists mainly of indigenous (adivasi) people, very vul- nerable to the processes of modernization and land alienation that accompany the huge pressures for mineral extraction and dam-building. Since the onset of colonization, and especially as the forces of globalization have speeded up, increasingly vigorous contestations for space and resources have taken place between adivasis, peasants, the state, and mining and other commercial companies. The environmental terrain of contemporary eastern Indian states such as Orissa and Jharkhand can be captured in opposed dualities: tribal versus caste Hindus; hill versus plain, mining versus dis- placement, submergence versus flood control. The history of this polariza- tion lies in the chequered set of developments which existed under colonial rule but rapidly accelerated following independence. More recently, since 1991, as the last pretence of tribal protection has been given up, eastern India has become subject to new kinds of internal and external colonization, far more traumatic in impact than pre-1947 colonization. 2 The history of globalization and state intervention in the period immediately after inde- pendence and since reveals these new and disturbing trends, along with continuities and discontinuities from the earlier period. In this article I docu- ment the colonial response to indigenous resistance and the emergence from about the 1830s of a protectionist discourse in relation to tribal areas that put a partial brake on the wholesale exploitation of the tribes and their forested landscapes. The current revisionist position in history and anthropology has focused on dismantling terms such as 'tribe', 'forest' and 'indigenous', used

Sustainable Energy Growth Tops Middle East Conference Agenda

Conference review The 15th annual Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC), organized in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, attracted major national and international oil and gas companies from around the world to discuss common challenges and the opportunities in the region. Involvement from Middle Eastern countries was higher than ever at the conference, with delegations from Saudi Aramco, Qatar Petroleum, Kuwait Petroleum, Sonatrach, and many other international companies discussing their strategies and technologies. The largest oil and gas show outside North America were held under the theme “Sustainable Energy Growth: People, Responsibility and Innovation.” More than 50,000 people from 91 countries attended. SPE organized the conference and technical sessions, which covered a number of topics that influence the industry including technical, economic, personal skills, and capability issues. More than 50 technical sessions presented by 300 industry experts were delivered during the event. Mohamed Bin Dha’en Al Hamli, UAE minister of energy, opened the ADIPEC conference. He said the scale of ADI-PEC and its setting in Abu Dhabi made it an ideal platform to address the complex technical and logistical challenges of exploring for and producing oil and gas at a time of increasing global energy demand. Formally introducing the conference, Ali Rashid Al Jarwan, chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company (Adma-Opco) and chairman of the ADIPEC 2012 conference, said the itinerary was the most comprehensive to date. “This year, the event offered more depth and scope than ever before. ADIPEC was founded on the principle of sharing knowledge and experience. This principle is as relevant now as it was 25 years ago when ADIPEC was established,” he said. Speaking on the challenges of growing global energy demand, Christophe de Margerie, chief executive officer of Total, said that demand for oil and gas from non-OECD countries has increased and this creates a challenge. “Meeting the increasing demand is a bit challenging due to projects’ complexity, access to finance, and geopolitical constraints,” de Margerie said. “To meet this soaring demand, new LNG (liquefied natural gas) projects are needed to satisfy European and Asian demand, even with potential additional supply from shale gas.” To address the new challenges facing the industry, companies should focus on leveraging technology, he said. “This will help unlock resources and improve recovery, optimal development through innovation, as well as operational excellence,” he said. Sami Al Rushaid, chairman and managing director of Kuwait Oil Company, said that his company is strongly focusing on optimizing recovery through primary, secondary, unconventional, enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and development of heavy oil. “Significant oil is also expected to come from exploration activities,” he said.

Polycarbonate Shifts To China

The world’s main producers of polycarbonate resin are building up their capabilities in China. Facing almost no competition from Chinese companies, they are methodically investing in plants and R&D facilities. They are also placing in China senior executives who are prepared to do business in the fast-paced Chinese style. At a press conference at the plastics trade show Chinaplas in Shanghai last month, Michael Koenig, head of polycarbonates at Bayer MaterialScience, highlighted the importance of the Chinese market. Asia accounts for 60% of world demand for polycarbonate, which the consulting firm IHS Chemical estimates at 3.7 million metric tons this year. China by itself represents half of Asian demand, Koenig said. “The main growth driver has shifted to Asia-Pacific, especially China,” he said. Koenig is based in Shanghai, where Bayer’s global polycarbonate business headquarters has been since last year. Bayer invented polycarbonate resins 40 years ago, Koenig noted, and the ...

How Elastic is East Asian Demand for Consumption Goods?

This paper investigates import demand in East Asia. Estimating exchange rate elasticities for countries in the region is difficult because many imports are used to produce goods for re-export. An exchange rate appreciation that reduces East Asian exports will also reduce the demand for imported inputs that are used to produce exports. To correct for this bias this paper examines consumption imports, since these goods are intended primarily for the domestic market. Results from several specifications indicate that currency appreciations and increases in income in East Asian countries would significantly increase imports into the region.

Sustainable development threats, inter‐sector conflicts and environmental policy requirements in the arid, mining rich, northern Chile territory

AbstractNorthern Chile has been an N–S arid to semiarid belt for more than 100 million years. Also, it is one of the world's most richly endowed territories in terms of Cu(Mo) porphyric deposits. Its mining output has steadily grown since the 1980s and has recently benefited from increased Asian demand and high Cu prices. The scarce water resources are allocated according to the 1981 act that emphasizes economic efficiency based on free transference between water‐right owners. As a result, water rights have attained peak market prices, at the US$200 000 level per l/s. Besides the consequences of the uneven mining–agricultural competition for water rights and the environmental effects of accelerated groundwater withdrawal, social unrest has locally attained serious levels, in particular in the Atacama Region. Therefore, the central government is considering significant changes to the present legislation, allowing a stronger participation of the state in water management issues. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Global Seaborne Hard Coal Market: Are there Implications for the Future?

The global financial crisis in 2008 sent commodity markets spinning which caused demand to erode, price levels to quickly plummet and project financing costs to rise. In this paper, the authors examine the impacts the economic slowdown has had on the global seaborne hard coal market looking at the impacts for both coking (metallurgical) and thermal (steam) coals including pricing, supply availability, demand and aggregated mine level production costs. The hard coal market experienced a significant slow down; the commodity has bounced back strongly in 2010 driven by strong Asian demand at growth rates above historic levels and strong projections for the future.

How Elastic is East Asian Demand for Consumption Goods?

This paper investigates import demand in East Asia. Estimating exchange rate elasticities for countries in the region is difficult because many imports are used to produce goods for re-export. An exchange rate appreciation that reduces East Asian exports will also reduce the demand for imported inputs that are used to produce exports. To correct for this bias this paper examines the imports of consumption goods, since these are intended primarily for the domestic market. Results from several specifications indicate that currency appreciations and increases in income in East Asian countries would significantly increase consumption imports.

Malaysia - Malaysian healthcare ready to meet West Asian demand

Malaysia - Malaysian healthcare ready to meet West Asian demand

Is LNG the panacea for Australia's natural gas?

Australia already has abundant natural gas reserves. To what extent will LNG exports grow? What is the potential for future conventional gas discoveries? Is there a potential round of additional CBM-sourced LNG projects? Could shale gas contribute to supply? There are already a significant number of proposed LNG projects in Australia. How many more projects might emerge to add to the current tally? In the longer term, Australia has the potential to surpass Qatar as the world’s leading LNG exporter but which markets can help Australia realise that potential? With growing Asian demand for LNG, and buyers historically accustomed to oil-linked long term contracts, the prospects for LNG appear good. But are they? To what extent can growth in Asian gas demand absorb Australian LNG, which itself has to compete with other LNG projects? If Asian demand is satiated, what are the alternative markets? North America provides another potential outlet for Australian LNG exports, but how do the project economics stack up relative to Asia? Does South America offer market opportunities and if so can countries there absorb a meaningful volume of Australian LNG? A detailed consideration of project costs and the outlook for gas prices in Asia and the Americas can help shed light on this question. It can also set Australia’s LNG projects in context relative to its competitors. If LNG is not the panacea for Australia’s natural gas, will alternative monetisation options emerge, and what might they be?

China and World Trade

The revival in global growth in the second quarter of last year can be traced to a sharp rise in domestic demand in mainland China, as well as Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea. While GDP increased in Germany, France and Japan as well, growth in these economies relied on a rise in external demand, whereas domestic demand in these countries continued to decline. The rise in Asian domestic demand has been strongly supported by a series of fiscal packages. The scope of stimulus packages introduced in the larger Asian economies dwarfs the size of packages introduced in most European economies, averaging 4–5 per cent of GDP.

Linkages among US Interest Rates and East Asian Purchases of US Treasury Securities

Recent increases in East Asian purchases of US treasury securities has led to growing concern over its impact on the US economy, particularly on the US long-term and short-term interest rates. The vector error-correction model results revealed the presence of long-run causal relations among the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury rate and the East Asian demand in addition to a unidirectional short-run causal relation from the 10-year rate to the Federal funds rate. The variance decomposition and impulse response findings indicated that the Asian demand for US assets has a limited but negative impact on the 10-year US Treasury interest rate. The transmission of the East Asian demand shock on both interest rates was almost immediate. The Federal funds rate is found to have a significant negative impact on the long-term rate.

Canada's Commercial Relationship with Asia

Since the heyday of consciousness in Canada during the of the Asia in 1997, when Canada served as chair of Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation, there has been a sense that Canada's economic relationship with Asia has languished, or at least has not lived up to its potential. This perspective has taken root even as the people-to-people linkages between Canada and Asia have widened and deepened through immigration, academic and student exchanges, tourism, and most recently through all manner of internet networks. The question of the strength of Canada's presence in Asia, and an examination of the causes of under-performance, if such is demonstrated, takes on added significance and urgency as we contemplate the global economy that will emerge from the current period of turbulence.Since the onset of the global economic crisis in 2008, both exports and imports have plummeted worldwide at rates not seen since the disasters of the first half of the 20th century. For the most part, protectionism is not playing a significant role (although the buy American provision in the Obama administration's stimulus package has opened that door at least a crack and, in fact, the World Bank has reported that 17 of the G20 countries have engaged in protectionist measures, after making a commitment not to do so in their meeting in Washington in November 2008). The problem is the extent to which global trade and investment had previously succeeded in integrating production systems worldwide. Plunging demand for exports translated automatically into plunging demand for imported inputs. For example, in the case of China, which has been the linchpin of global integrative trade because of the exaggerated skew in its comparative advantage (size of workforce with basic skills at extremely low relative wages), both imports and exports in February 2009 plunged by around 25 percent year over year - even though China's domestic investment rose by about the same amount. What has happened to trade in the course of the crisis is in some sense the equivalent of the massive deleveraging process and the unwinding of carry trades that has shrunk financial balance sheets worldwide and rocked global financial systems.As the global economy recovers and international financial and industrial linkages are restitched, the overarching strategic issue posed for Canada concerns the pattern of global demand that will take shape in the ensuing recovery. If it involves, as it seems it must, a substantially greater amount of Asian demand and greater savings in the industrialized west, a solid foothold in Asian markets will be of vital importance.ASSESSING CANADA'S TRADE RELATIONSHIP WITH ASIA: A COMPARATIVE APPROACHThe general perception in Canada of the economic relationship with Asia prior to the onset of the global economic crisis is shaped heavily by Canada's trade statistics, which show imports from the major Asian economies rising steeply (up 170 percent in 2008 in Canadian dollar terms from their level in 1995), but exports lagging with a comparable cumulative growth of only 44 percent. Indeed, the ground lost during the Asian economic and financial crisis of 1997-98, when Canada's exports to these economies slumped by 28 percent, has only recently been recovered.However, a number of considerations suggest that a closer look is required before passing judgement on the strength and vitality of Canada's commercial relationship with Asia on this basis. First, the difference between export and import flows is amplified by the use of Canada's export statistics. Export statistics are less reliable than import statistics, in general, and often understate particular flows because of transhipment through third countries. More importantly, the size and intensity of bilateral trade flows are determined by a wide range of factors, including the supply capacities of the economies in question, which shape their comparative advantage in the international division of labour; the size of their markets, which determines overall demand levels; the relative prices and qualities of their factors of production; firm-level specific advantages (e. …

In hot soup: sharks captured in Ecuador's waters

Sharks never stop growing and neither does the Asian demand for sharkfin soup. Ecuador is one nation of many that feeds the demand for fins, and fishers there catch more than 40 different shark species. But shark catches have been considerably underreported worldwide. Until the 2005 update of fisheries data, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) did not report elasmobranches for Ecuador, indicating that the Ecuadorian government did not report on these species. This study reconstructs Ecuador's mainland shark landings from the bottom up from 1979 to 2004. Over this period, shark landings for the Ecuadorian mainland were an estimated 7000 tonnes per year, or nearly half a million sharks. Reconstructed shark landings were about 3.6 times greater than those retroactively reported by FAO from 1991 to 2004. The discrepancies in data require immediate implementation of the measures Ecuadorian law mandates: eliminating targeted shark captures, finning and transshipments, as well as adoption of measures to minimise incidental capture. Most of all, a serious shark landings monitoring system and effective chain of custody standards are needed.

The Run on Rice

This year has brought vivid television images of food riots in poor countries and unpleasant surprises at the supermarket checkout counter in rich ones. Is the era of cheap food really over? By mid 2008, U.S. dollar prices for food grains had more than doubled compared with just two years ago. Over half of the increase occurred in the first six months of this year. The price of rice a staple food for half the world s population jumped to $907 per ton in April, almost triple November 2007 levels. In response, major grain exporting countries introduced export bans, sending importers nervously searching world markets to secure supplies. Food prices are still only around half what they were during the worst of the great world food crisis of 1973-74 in inflation-adjusted terms, and no more than their average during the 1960s (according to our calculations that measure food prices relative to an index of global manufactured export prices). But this will hardly be of comfort to the hundreds of millions of poor people with less to eat today, who are experiencing a sharp fall in their already meager living standards. So what are the causes of the present surge in world food prices, in particular for rice? And what can be done about it? Many explanations have been put forward for the hike in food prices, some better supported than others. One popular notion is that prices are rising because of rapid income growth and rising food demand in Asia, particularly in China and India. But this idea which, incidentally, neatly puts the blame for rising prices on developing countries does not square too well with the facts. Growth in Asian rice consumption has been slowing for decades despite rapid economic growth, falling from 2-3 percent a year in the 1970s and 1980s to only 0.9 percent a year so far in the 2000s. (Annual growth in overall world consumption so far this decade is roughly 1 percent.) A variant of this argument is that Asians are upgrading their diets and eating more meat, which is indirectly boosting demand for animal feed. This certainly appears to be true for oilseeds like soybean meal, demand for which has been rising rapidly in China's poultry and livestock industry. But it is much less clear that it has been boosting grain demand. Rice is not widely used for this purpose. And growth in Asian demand for other grains for feedstuff has been falling not rising due to improved efficiency in use. Such growth fell from a staggering 12-13 percent a year in the

The Macro Management of Commodity Booms: Africa and Latin America's Response to Asian Demand

Strong growth in China and India has led to improvements in raw-material exporting countries' terms of trade and attracted complementary finance. The long-term challenge for these countries, where institutions are often fragile, is to avoid the so-called resource curse. This paper aims to provide a comparative perspective between policy choices in commodity exporting countries, contrasting the experiences of Africa and Latin America. First, it highlights global macroeconomic links between the Asian Drivers (China and India) and these regions. Second, it discusses optimal policy responses from a macroeconomic and institutional perspective. Third, it presents empirical evidence on macroeconomic, particularly fiscal responses to Dutch disease and the specialization effects caused by Asian Drivers' demand and assesses the benefits and challenges offered by the Asian Drivers from a macro perspective for both Africa and Latin America.

Still more records, Iraqi violence and Caspian exports

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'. Oil prices set further records at the start of May before falling back. December WTI hit an all‐time high of $78.00/bbl on Nymex on 3rd May. IPE November Brent went up to a record $76.45/bbl. Both contracts eventually settled lower and prices in general weakened before staging a minor rally at the end of the month. Other price records were broken early in the month. In Asia, the Indonesian marker grade, Minas, was recorded at $74.04/bbl on 2nd May, whilst Malaysia's Tapis went above $76.70/bbl. Strong Asian demand also boosted the prices of West African crudes. The markets appeared to be reacting to growing tensions in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria. These considerations returned to haunt the markets later in the month. All crude oil loadings at Iraq's Persian Gulf marine terminal were suspended following a fire, though the main Gulf terminal at Basrah continued to operate. The Ceyhan terminal remained out of action. Tensions between the US and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme gave rise to fears of an embargo on Iranian oil exports. Several foreign oil workers were kidnapped following an armed attack on oil installations in Nigeria. OPEC ministers kept their production ceiling unchanged at 28 mn bpd at a meeting in Caracas.

Asia's Demand for Electricity Fuels a Regional Nuclear Boom

While Western governments debate the pros and cons of replacing old nuclear power plants, India, China, and Japan are investing rapidly in new systems.