Artificial Examples Research Articles

Abrupt change detection with One-Class Time-Adaptive Support Vector Machines

We recently introduced an algorithm for training a sequence of coupled Support Vector Machines which shows promising results in the field of non-stationary classification problems Grinblat, Uzal, Ceccatto, and Granitto (2011). In this paper we analyze its application to the abrupt change detection problem. With this goal, we first introduce and analyze an extension of it to deal with the One-Class Support Vector Machine (OC-SVM) problem, and then discuss its use as an improved abrupt change detection method. Finally, we apply the proposed procedure to artificial and real-world examples, and demonstrate that it is competitive by comparison against other abrupt change detection methods.

Posterior singular spectrum analysis

A method is proposed for finding interesting underlying features of a time series, such as trends, maxima, minima, and oscillations. A combination of singular spectrum analysis SSA and Bayesian modeling is used where the credibility of SSA signal components is analyzed via posterior simulation. The potential of the technique is demonstrated using artificial and real data examples. Our analysis of a Bayesian reconstruction of post-Ice Age temperature variation lends support for the presence of oscillations detected in previous studies of the paleoclimate. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining, 2013

Directional naive Bayes classifiers

Directional data are ubiquitous in science. These data have some special properties that rule out the use of classical statistics. Therefore, different distributions and statistics, such as the univariate von Mises and the multivariate von Mises---Fisher distributions, should be used to deal with this kind of information. We extend the naive Bayes classifier to the case where the conditional probability distributions of the predictive variables follow either of these distributions. We consider the simple scenario, where only directional predictive variables are used, and the hybrid case, where discrete, Gaussian and directional distributions are mixed. The classifier decision functions and their decision surfaces are studied at length. Artificial examples are used to illustrate the behavior of the classifiers. The proposed classifiers are then evaluated over eight datasets, showing competitive performances against other naive Bayes classifiers that use Gaussian distributions or discretization to manage directional data.

An Operator Splitting Finite Element Method for Eddy-Current Field Analysis in High-Speed Rotating Solid Conductors

Standard Galerkin finite element method (SGFEM) cannot solve eddy-current problems with dominated motional terms accurately and effectively. A numerical method for analyzing eddy-current magnetic field in high-speed rotating solid conductors using operator splitting finite element method (OSFEM) is presented. An artificial example and a benchmark transient eddy-current field problem, the problems 30A and 30B in testing electromagnetic analysis methods (TEAM) workshop, are used to test the accuracy and performance of the method. It is demonstrated that the numerical solution using the proposed method is nonoscillatory even for convection dominated cases. Besides, the calculated torque values are more accurate using the proposed OSFEM when compared with those obtained using SGFEM. It is concluded that the OSFEM can solve eddy-current problems with high-speed rotating conductors efficiently and accurately.

Exploiting strength, discounting weakness: combining information from multiple climate simulators

This paper presents and analyses a statistical framework for combining projections of future climate from different climate simulators. The framework recognizes explicitly that all currently available simulators are imperfect; that they do not span the full range of possible decisions on the part of the climate modelling community; and that individual simulators have strengths and weaknesses. Information from individual simulators is automatically weighted, alongside that from historical observations and from prior knowledge. The weights for a simulator depend on its internal variability, its expected consensus with other simulators, the internal variability of the real climate and the propensity of simulators collectively to deviate from reality. The framework demonstrates, moreover, that some subjective judgements are inevitable when interpreting multiple climate change projections: by clarifying precisely what those judgements are, it provides increased transparency in the ensuing analyses. Although the framework is straightforward to apply in practice by a user with some understanding of Bayesian methods, the emphasis here is on conceptual aspects illustrated with a simplified artificial example. A 'poor man's version' is also presented, which can be implemented straightforwardly in simple situations.

The general factor of personality: A general critique

Recently, it has been proposed that all non-cognitive measures of personality share a general factor of personality. A problem with many of these studies is a lack of clarity in defining a general factor. In this paper we address the multiple ways in which a general factor has been identified and argue that many of these approaches find factors that are not in fact general. Through the use of artificial examples, we show that a general factor is not:1.The first factor or component of a correlation or covariance matrix.2.The first factor resulting from a bifactor rotation or biquartimin transformation.3.Necessarily the result of a confirmatory factor analysis forcing a bifactor solution.We consider how the definition of what constitutes a general factor can lead to confusion, and we will demonstrate alternative ways of estimating the general factor saturation that are more appropriate.

Statistical analysis of manual segmentations of structures in medical images

The problem of extracting anatomical structures from medical images is both very important and difficult. In this paper we are motivated by a new paradigm in medical image segmentation, termed Citizen Science, which involves a volunteer effort from multiple, possibly non-expert, human participants. These contributors observe 2D images and generate their estimates of anatomical boundaries in the form of planar closed curves. The challenge, of course, is to combine these different estimates in a coherent fashion and to develop an overall estimate of the underlying structure. Treating these curves as random samples, we use statistical shape theory to generate joint inferences and analyze this data generated by the citizen scientists. The specific goals in this analysis are: (1) to find a robust estimate of the representative curve that provides an overall segmentation, (2) to quantify the level of agreement between segmentations, both globally (full contours) and locally (parts of contours), and (3) to automatically detect outliers and help reduce their influence in the estimation. We demonstrate these ideas using a number of artificial examples and real applications in medical imaging, and summarize their potential use in future scenarios.

In the Face of Austerity: The Puzzle of Museums and Universities

In the Face of Austerity: The Puzzle of Museums and Universities

A Decomposition Method for Exploiting Parallel Computing Including the Determination of an Optimal Number of Subsystems

Many practical design problems are multidisciplinary and typically involve the transfer of complex information between analysis modules. In solving such problems, the method for performing multidisciplinary analyses greatly affects the speed of the total design time. Thus, it is very important to group and order a multidisciplinary analysis (MDA) process so as to minimize the total computational time and cost by decomposing a large multidisciplinary problem into several subsystems and then processing them in parallel. This study proposes a decomposition method that exploits parallel computing, including the determination of an optimal number of subsystems by using a multi-objective optimization formulation and a messy genetic algorithm (GA) modified to handle discrete design variables. In the suggested method, an MDA process is decomposed and sequenced for simultaneously minimizing the feedback couplings within each subsystem, the total couplings between subsystems, the variation of computation times among subsystems, and the computation time of each subsystem. The proposed method is applied to the decomposition of an artificial complex system example and a multidisciplinary design problem of a rotorcraft with 17 analysis modules; promising results are presented using this proposed method.

Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts: Proper Scoring Rules and Moments

The paper provides an overview of probabilistic forecasting and discusses a theoretical framework for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts which is based on proper scoring rules and moments. An artificial example of predicting second-order autoregression and an example of predicting the RTSI stock index are used as illustrations.

Comparing the spatial structure of variability in two datasets against each other on the basis of EOF-modes

In analysis of climate variability or change it is often of interest how the spatial structure in modes of variability in two datasets differ from each other, e.g. between past and future climate or between models and observations. Often such analysis is based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis or other simple indices of large-scale spatial structures. The present analysis lays out a concept on how two datasets of multivariate climate variability can be compared against each other on basis of EOF analysis and how the differences in the multivariate spatial structure between the two datasets can be quantified in terms of explained variance in the leading spatial patterns. It is also illustrated how the patterns of largest differences between the two datasets can be defined and interpreted. We illustrate this method on the basis of several well-defined artificial examples and by comparing our approach with examples of climate change studies from the literature. These literature examples include analysis of changes in the modes of variability under climate change for the sea level pressure (SLP) of the North Atlantic and Europe, the SLP of the Southern Hemisphere, the surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere, the sea surface temperature of the North Pacific and for precipitation in the tropical Indo-Pacific.

An assessment of the effectiveness of a rotation forest ensemble for land-use and land-cover mapping

Increasing the accuracy of thematic maps produced through the process of image classification has been a hot topic in remote sensing. For this aim, various strategies, classifiers, improvements, and their combinations have been suggested in the literature. Ensembles that combine the prediction of individual classifiers with weights based on the estimated prediction accuracies are strategies aiming to improve the classifier performances. One of the recently introduced ensembles is the rotation forest, which is based on the idea of building accurate and diverse classifiers by applying feature extraction to the training sets and then reconstructing new training sets for each classifier. In this study, the effectiveness of the rotation forest was investigated for decision trees in land-use and land-cover (LULC) mapping, and its performance was compared with performances of the six most widely used ensemble methods. The results were verified for the effectiveness of the rotation forest ensemble as it produced the highest classification accuracies for the selected satellite data. When the statistical significance of differences in performances was analysed using McNemar's tests based on normal and chi-squared distributions, it was found that the rotation forest method outperformed the bagging, Diverse Ensemble Creation by Oppositional Relabelling of Artificial Training Examples (DECORATE), and random subspace methods, whereas the performance differences with the other ensembles were statistically insignificant.

A Class of Sampling Two Units with Probability Proportional to Size

A class of sampling two units without replacement with inclusion probability proportional to size is proposed in this article. Many different well known probability proportional to size sampling designs are special cases from this class. The first and second inclusion probabilities of this class satisfy important properties and provide a non-negative variance estimator of the Horvitz and Thompson estimator for the population total. Suitable choice for the first and second inclusion probabilities from this class can be used to reduce the variance estimator of the Horvitz and Thompson estimator. Comparisons between different proportional to size sampling designs through real data and artificial examples are given. Examples show that the minimum variance of the Horvitz and Thompson estimator obtained from the proposed design is not attainable for the most cases at any of the well known designs.

A continuous-time adaptive particle filter for estimations under measurement time uncertainties with an application to a plasma-leucine mixed effects model

BackgroundWhen mathematical modelling is applied to many different application areas, a common task is the estimation of states and parameters based on measurements. With this kind of inference making, uncertainties in the time when the measurements have been taken are often neglected, but especially in applications taken from the life sciences, this kind of errors can considerably influence the estimation results. As an example in the context of personalized medicine, the model-based assessment of the effectiveness of drugs is becoming to play an important role. Systems biology may help here by providing good pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models. Inference on these systems based on data gained from clinical studies with several patient groups becomes a major challenge. Particle filters are a promising approach to tackle these difficulties but are by itself not ready to handle uncertainties in measurement times.ResultsIn this article, we describe a variant of the standard particle filter (PF) algorithm which allows state and parameter estimation with the inclusion of measurement time uncertainties (MTU). The modified particle filter, which we call MTU-PF, also allows the application of an adaptive stepsize choice in the time-continuous case to avoid degeneracy problems. The modification is based on the model assumption of uncertain measurement times. While the assumption of randomness in the measurements themselves is common, the corresponding measurement times are generally taken as deterministic and exactly known. Especially in cases where the data are gained from measurements on blood or tissue samples, a relatively high uncertainty in the true measurement time seems to be a natural assumption. Our method is appropriate in cases where relatively few data are used from a relatively large number of groups or individuals, which introduce mixed effects in the model. This is a typical setting of clinical studies. We demonstrate the method on a small artificial example and apply it to a mixed effects model of plasma-leucine kinetics with data from a clinical study which included 34 patients.ConclusionsComparisons of our MTU-PF with the standard PF and with an alternative Maximum Likelihood estimation method on the small artificial example clearly show that the MTU-PF obtains better estimations. Considering the application to the data from the clinical study, the MTU-PF shows a similar performance with respect to the quality of estimated parameters compared with the standard particle filter, but besides that, the MTU algorithm shows to be less prone to degeneration than the standard particle filter.

Approximate Reasoning in Fuzzy Resolution

Resolution is an useful tool for mechanical theorem proving in modelling the refutation proof procedure, which is mostly used in constructing a “proof” of a “theorem”. An attempt is made to utilize approximate reasoning methodology in fuzzy resolution. Approximate reasoning is a methodology which can deduce a specific information from general knowledge and specific observation. It is dependent on the form of general knowledge and the corresponding deductive mechanism. In ordinary approximate reasoning, we derive from A→B and by some mechanism. In inverse approximate reasoning, we conclude from A→B and using an altogether different mechanism. An important observation is that similarity is inherent in fuzzy set theory. In approximate reasoning methodology-similarity relation is used in fuzzification while, similarity measure is used in fuzzy inference mechanism. This research proposes that similarity based approximate reasoning-modelling generalised modus ponens/generalised modus tollens—can be used to derive a resolution—like inference pattern in fuzzy logic. The proposal is well-illustrated with artificial examples.

The Depth Problem: Identifying the Most Representative Units in a Data Group

This paper presents a solution to the problem of how to identify the units in groups or clusters that have the greatest degree of centrality and best characterize each group. This problem frequently arises in the classification of data such as types of tumor, gene expression profiles or general biomedical data. It is particularly important in the common context that many units do not properly belong to any cluster. Furthermore, in gene expression data classification, good identification of the most central units in a cluster enables recognition of the most important samples in a particular pathological process. We propose a new depth function that allows us to identify central units. As our approach is based on a measure of distance or dissimilarity between any pair of units, it can be applied to any kind of multivariate data (continuous, binary or multiattribute data). Therefore, it is very valuable in many biomedical applications, which usually involve noncontinuous data, such as clinical, pathological, or biological data sources. We validate the approach using artificial examples and apply it to empirical data. The results show the good performance of our statistical approach.

Ranking hubs and authorities using matrix functions

The notions of subgraph centrality and communicability, based on the exponential of the adjacency matrix of the underlying graph, have been effectively used in the analysis of undirected networks. In this paper we propose an extension of these measures to directed networks, and we apply them to the problem of ranking hubs and authorities. The extension is achieved by bipartization, i.e., the directed network is mapped onto a bipartite undirected network with twice as many nodes in order to obtain a network with a symmetric adjacency matrix. We explicitly determine the exponential of this adjacency matrix in terms of the adjacency matrix of the original, directed network, and we give an interpretation of centrality and communicability in this new context, leading to a technique for ranking hubs and authorities. The matrix exponential method for computing hubs and authorities is compared to the well known HITS algorithm, both on small artificial examples and on more realistic real-world networks. A few other ranking algorithms are also discussed and compared with our technique. The use of Gaussian quadrature rules for calculating hub and authority scores is discussed.

A Kernel Approach to Multi-Task Learning with Task-Specific Kernels

Several kernel-based methods for multi-task learning have been proposed, which leverage relations among tasks as regularization to enhance the overall learning accuracies. These methods assume that the tasks share the same kernel, which could limit their applications because in practice different tasks may need different kernels. The main challenge of introducing multiple kernels into multiple tasks is that models from different reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) are not comparable, making it difficult to exploit relations among tasks. This paper addresses the challenge by formalizing the problem in the square integrable space (SIS). Specially, it proposes a kernel-based method which makes use of a regularization term defined in SIS to represent task relations. We prove a new representer theorem for the proposed approach in SIS. We further derive a practical method for solving the learning problem and conduct consistency analysis of the method. We discuss the relationship between our method and an existing method. We also give an SVM (support vector machine)-based implementation of our method for multi-label classification. Experiments on an artificial example and two real-world datasets show that the proposed method performs better than the existing method.

Cross-Wavelet Bias Corrected by Normalizing Scales

Abstract The cross-wavelet transform (XWT) is a powerful tool for testing the proposed connections between two time series. Because of XWT’s skeletal structure, which is based on the wavelet transform, it is suitable for the analysis of nonstationary periodic signals. Recent work has shown that the power spectrum based on the wavelet transform can produce a deviation, which can be corrected by choosing a proper rectification scale. In this study, it is shown that the standard application of the XWT can also lead to a biased result. A corrected version of the standard XWT was constructed using the scale of each series as normalizing factors. This correction was first tested with an artificial example involving two series built from combinations of two harmonic series with different amplitudes and frequencies. The standard XWT applied to this example produces a biased result, whereas the correct result is obtained with the use of the proposed normalization. This analysis was then applied to a real geophysical situation with important implications to climate modulation on the northwestern Brazilian coast. The linkage between the relative humidity and the shortwave radiation measurements, obtained from the 8°S, 30°W Autonomous Temperature Line Acquisition System (ATLAS) buoy of the Southwestern Extension of the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA-SWE), was explored. The analysis revealed the importance of including the correction in order to not overlook any possible connections. The requirements of incorporating this correction in the XWT calculations are emphasized.

Clustering of functional data in a low-dimensional subspace

To find optimal clusters of functional objects in a lower-dimensional subspace of data, a sequential method called tandem analysis, is often used, though such a method is problematic. A new procedure is developed to find optimal clusters of functional objects and also find an optimal subspace for clustering, simultaneously. The method is based on the k-means criterion for functional data and seeks the subspace that is maximally informative about the clustering structure in the data. An efficient alternating least-squares algorithm is described, and the proposed method is extended to a regularized method. Analyses of artificial and real data examples demonstrate that the proposed method gives correct and interpretable results.