Arms Exports Research Articles

Позиции Республики Корея и Японии по институционализации военно-политического сотрудничества в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе

The article analyzes the current stance of the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan on the institutionalization of defense cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, provides the assessment of the prospects for the US-ROK-Japan triangle institutionalization, as well as the assessment of the prospects for the possible accession of Japan and South Korea to the AUKUS agreement. Drawing from the strategic documents of Tokyo and Seoul in the field of security, as well as joint statements and other official information materials of the United States and its partners in the Asia-Pacific region, the author comes to the conclusion that the announced "Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework" of the United States – South Korea – Japan will be poorly formalized, and the main area of cooperation within this framework will be the exchange of intelligence data and monitoring of the military activity of the DPRK. The Memorandum of Cooperation concluded in July 2024 has primarily an ideological significance and is intended to create a precedent for formalizing military cooperation in a trilateral format. The potential entry of the ROK and Japan into AUKUS also has its problems. Through the license-free AUKUS arms trade ecosystem, Japan potentially can be able to develop its own defense industry and gain a foothold as an arms exporter. On the contrary, for South Korea, which is already an established exporter of military equipment and weapons, this would be a potential risk and the possibility of losing its acquired positions in Australia and other markets. Nevertheless, the prospect for both parties joining AUKUS is real, and cooperation within this multilateral format can also be of a weakly formalized nature, reduced to work on a number of joint projects, mainly in high-tech areas with the ultimate goal of developing common technological and legal standards.

Russia in the system of functioning models of the modern world market for arms and military equipment

In the context of modern geopolitical conflicts, which have led to complications in the international trade and investment cooperation between countries, there are serious changes in the positions of states in the global export of arms and military equipment (hereinafter referred to as AME). Structural transformations in the international exchange of the AME are also conditioned by the clash of economic interests of individual countries due to globalisation of recent decades as well as by the use of various models of production and export of the AME at the national level. As shown in our article, states of the world are seriously differentiated in their own production of the AME according to the degree of their dependence on imports and foreign suppliers of components and technologies. The fact that countries can be advanced participants in the technological chain or be niche suppliers determines new directions for their international specialisation and, largely, the rules and nature of competition in the modern AME market. As part of the presented analysis of the national specialisation models of states, the competitive advantages and weaknesses of Russia as one of the leading arms exporters in the world are shown. At the same time, the foreign policy and economic risks of strengthening its position in the global AME trade have been assessed. Based on the results of the study, directions for reinforcing the potential of the Russian military-industrial complex in the world AME market have been formulated.

Like knows like? Arms trade between South Korea and Poland

South Korea has drastically increased its arms exports to Poland against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although economic factors help explain this increase, we need to enquire deeply into the upsurge of interest since the arms trade is also dictated by ideological and geopolitical considerations. This article investigates the seemingly arbitrary export of arms from South Korea to Poland by employing the concept of middle power. Although arms trade between middle powers is not rare, it is rare that South Korea has increased its volume to Poland by more than tenfold in a single year. In East Asian countries’ race to increase their military presence in Europe, China has strengthened its military cooperation with Serbia, while Japan has joined with Italy and the UK to develop the next generation of combat aircraft. South Korea, instead, has made its foray into Poland, continuously exploiting the potential there and exploring the possibility of middle-power alliance.

АНАЛИЗ УЧАСТИЯ РОССИЙСКОГО ОБОРОННО-ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА НА МИРОВОМ РЫНКЕ ВООРУ-ЖЕНИЯ И ВОЕННОЙ ТЕХНИКИ

The article explores and outlines the participation of the Russian military-industrial complex (DIC) in expanding the range of foreign trade activities and developing the economy of the Russian Federation by producing and releasing for these purposes various types of modern, in-demand and competitive military, civil and dual products on the world and domestic commodity markets. appointments. A definition of the global market for military products (MP) is given, its geography, characteristics, trends and operating features, the implementation of international legal regulation, the value of annual trade turnover, the presence of official and illegal schemes for the sale of weapons and military equipment, and the reasons for the emergence of the latter are revealed. The geography and indicators of the participation of the Russian Federation in this market for the period 2015–2022 are given, its rating among the states that are the main exporters of weapons and military equipment, as well as comparison with the USA and EU countries - the main exporters to the world market of weapons, military equipment and others types of military products, the ratio of their exports to military expenditures and to the gross domestic product. The authors present a correlation regression analysis of the main factors influencing Russia's posi-tion in the world market for weapons, military equipment and other types of military products, including an analysis of the Russian share in global arms exports, as well as an analysis of the share of arms and military equipment exports in Russia's total ex-ports. The conclusions summarize the results of the study, indicating the real, signifi-cant contribution of the Russian defense industry to the development of foreign trade activities and the country's economy in the context of sanctions restrictions and in-creasing global risks.

Strategy of Russian Military Cooperation with the Countries of the Arab Region

The article undertakes an analysis of the prospective domains of Russian military collaboration with Arab countries against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties. Despite maintaining its position as the second-largest arms exporter globally, Russia has experienced a proportional decline in its share of the global arms market. Nevertheless, a discernible uptick in the trade volume of conventional weaponry, coupled with cyclical enhancements in the tactical and technical attributes of military assets, reflects positive momentum in this sector. Amid prevailing external constraints and a noticeable scarcity of contemporary Russian weaponry in burgeoning segments of the arms market, Russia necessitates resolute and equitable measures to uphold and fortify collaborative ties with partner nations. Within this context, particular emphasis is placed on Russia's strategic military cooperation with Arab states, given the region's status as a focal point of geopolitical interests for major economies and a primary destination for arms imports.The article scrutinizes Russia's competitive standing in the arms and military equipment markets of the Arab world, acknowledging the region's significance as a pivotal importer of such goods. Employing a multifaceted evaluation encompassing absolute and relative statistical metrics and derived indices, the study assesses the region's role in global arms procurement. Moreover, it offers an appraisal of the existing state and potential avenues for enhancing the efficacy of the Russian-Arab military-technical collaboration framework. The discourse delves into the transformative prospects of this partnership within the framework of networkcentric warfare concepts. Furthermore, the article elucidates the principal risks inherent in military cooperation among nations at present, highlighting concerns regarding the possible manipulation of military-technical cooperation mechanisms to serve as leverage in furthering the geopolitical aspirations of specific stakeholders.In conclusion, the study posits forward-looking trajectories for bolstering bilateral relations, both sectorally and geographically. These include initiatives such as expanding licensing, leasing, offset transactions, and technology transfer initiatives; advocating for fifth-generation fighter aircraft and long-range radar detection and control systems, leveraging Industry 4.0 technologies; and prioritizing the training of foreign specialists.

China–North Korea Arms Trade from the Perspective of Chinese Scholars

executive summary: This article examines the historical context and evolving dynamics of China–North Korea arms trade and its future scenarios, shedding light on the motivations, methods, and implications of this strategic partnership. main argument An assessment of open-source materials authored by Chinese scholars and experts indicates that, despite international sanctions on weapon sales to North Korea, arms exports play a significant role in enhancing China's geopolitical influence, countering the U.S., and securing a Chinese presence on the Korean Peninsula. Arms exports from China to North Korea are likely to shift from individual products to integrated systems, influenced by the adoption of systems thinking in both the Chinese and the North Korean defense sectors. Additionally, arms trade may evolve toward taking place within China's expanding multilateral frameworks, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Belt and Road Initiative. China may also see a role for North Korea as an intermediary for arms sales to other sanctioned states, mirroring its historical role as an intermediary for North Korea. policy implications • If arms sales from China to North Korea transform into system-based packages, then policymakers should anticipate changes in the nature and coordination of North Korean weaponry, necessitating a reassessment of defense strategies. • If China integrates arms trade into multilateral frameworks, then it is recommended that the U.S. monitor and assess the impact of these organizations on regional security dynamics and consider diplomatic measures to mitigate their securitization. • If North Korea acts as an intermediary for Chinese arms sales to sanctioned states, then robust intelligence efforts and international collaboration should be prioritized to enforce arms control regimes and curb illicit activities. • If Chinese assistance enhances North Korea's military capabilities, then counterstrategies for North Korean systems warfare and advanced technologies will be important for the U.S. so that it can continue to operate effectively in networked environments on the Korean Peninsula.

Tracking IHL Violations Through Arms Export in the Context of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine

The paper tracks challenges to litigating (direct and indirect) imports of military equipment to Russia and Russia’s subsequent international humanitarian law of armed conflicts (IHL) violations committed in indiscriminate attacks in Ukraine. It asks whether arms export control is capable of preventing or mitigating the results of indiscriminate attacks in Ukraine. It is assumed that IHL compliance can be complemented by preventing military equipment from being delivered to recipients when there is a risk of serious IHL violations being committed with that equipment. By comparing arms transfers from Iran with other controversial arms exports, the paper examines if increased protection for IHL ensued by arms export control laws can remedy deficiencies in arms transfer decisions that do not account for IHL. If an answer is negative, corporate due diligence will perform a complementary role in respecting IHL when state authorisation for arms transfer fails to account for IHL.

Did CIA interventions increase US arms exports? Evidence from the Cold War (1962–1989)

This letter explores the impact of CIA interventions on US arms exports during the Cold War. Analyzing data from 1962 to 1989, our findings reveal three key insights: (i) CIA interventions significantly increase US exports of both small arms (SALW) and major conventional weapons (MCW) to intervened countries; (ii) The duration of CIA influence is also positively correlated with arms exports; (iii) the impact of CIA interventions on arms exports of other NATO states to intervened countries differs based on the type of weapons.

Key Aspects of India’s Arms Export Policy amid Military-Industrial Complex Reform

The study examines the key features and areas of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government’s policy aimed at boosting the export of weapons, military and special equipment (WMSE) within the broader strategy of reforming the Indian military-industrial complex (MIC). The long-term goal of the Indian government is to achieve “strategic autonomy” in the defence sector. In the short term, Indian arms exports serve as the driving force behind the “Make in India” and “Self-reliant India” programmes - pivotal components of Prime Minister Modi’s political agenda. The significant amplification factor for India’s export ambitions has been conditioned in part by the escalating border tensions with China since 2017. The export of WMSE is emerging as a crucial tool to strengthen India’s bilateral relations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region to counterbalance China. Nonetheless, to propel India into the group of the world’s leading arms exporters, as well as to gain full “strategic independence,” may be hard to achieve even in the long run. Despite systemic reforms in the military-industrial complex, efforts to engage private businesses and attract foreign capital, a number of challenges impede the growth of the defence industry and the export potential of the Indian military-industrial complex. These include the inadequate development of India’s manufacturing sector, dependency on foreign technologies, and insufficient funding for military-technical advancements. At the same time, the policy of supporting defence exports and reforming the MIC has been a stable trend in the strategy of the BJP government, playing a crucial role in the fulfillment of its short, medium and long term goals.

Developments in South Korea’s defence industry

South Korean arms exports have risen significantly since the late 2010s, with the largest share of sales going to the Philippines, India, Thailand and Poland. The ability of the country’s defence industry to produce quality arms on time and at scale has been a major strength, but it will become more difficult to maintain cost-effectiveness and enhance products as labour and production costs increase, and with the possibility that more arms may be retained domestically in the future to protect against threats from North Korea.

Syria's turnover of Russian arms exports

Subject. This article discusses the issues of Russia's policy in the Middle East and support for the country's military-industrial complex. Objectives. The article aims to identify the factors influencing the consolidation of Russia's position in the world arms market. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of comparative, structural, and statistical analyses. Results. The article finds that the export of Russian-made weapons has increased since the start of the military operation in Syria. Of all the types of equipment, military aircraft are in the greatest demand abroad. Conclusions. Russia's participation in the civil war in Syria on the side of the central government has contributed to the consolidation of our country's position in the global arms market.

Should we sell arms to human rights violators? What the public thinks

ABSTRACT Arms-exporting countries – even those that are liberal democracies – sell weapons to governments that violate human rights. Does the public support the provision of weapons to human rights violators? We examine public attitudes on arms exports through a survey experiment in Israel – a major arms exporter that is often criticized for arming repressive governments. Our analysis finds that human rights violations substantially increase the public’s opposition to the sale of arms – by 21 percentage points. Furthermore, opposition to the arms sale arises even when the recipient country carries economic or strategic importance. Overall, we find a public preference for arms exports constrained by ethical concerns – a preference that is often at odds with governments’ export practice. This study enhances our understanding of the domestic politics of the arms trade, which has received little scholarly attention, but increases in importance with rising public scrutiny and criticism of arms sales.

Ensuring Security in Economic Freedom: A Cross Case Between Indonesia's Border Neighbors

An open economy allows for partnerships between countries. The urgency of this paper is to dedicate the government's concern to revitalizing weapons in finance, export–import, and empowering the military sector to maintain economic freedom in 8 countries. The objectivity of the study focuses on Indonesia's cross–border countries. Annual published data sourced from the Global Economy is compiled for 6 periods. Then, the comparative linear regression technique serves to articulate the analysis funds. Since 2016–2021, there are indications that there is a strong determination of arms imports, arms exports, GDP of the military, armed forces personnel, and military spending on economic freedom. Interestingly, it was found that variables that influence economic freedom include arms imports in Australia, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines, then arms exports in Indonesia, Australia and Papua New Guinea. In line with the GDP of the military which also affects economic freedom for Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Singapore and Thailand. Furthermore, only armed forces personnel have a systematic effect on Australia and Vietnam and military spending on Papua New Guinea and Malaysia. Therefore, the research output guides future studies to consider protective national military policy interventions as an alternative to driving national economic independence.

Deontological and consequentialist preferences towards arms exports: A comparative conjoint experiment in France and Germany

AbstractDespite fierce politicization in arms‐exporting democracies, we lack systematic research on mass public preferences on arms transfers. We propose that citizens either apply a deontologist (rejecting transfers categorically) or consequentialist (trading‐off economic, strategic and normative aspects) calculus of preference formation. Conducting population‐representative survey experiments () in Germany and France, two global top‐five major arms exporters, we find that 10–15 per cent of respondents follow deontologist considerations, a preference structure potentially relevant for all foreign policies involving the use of military force. Still, a majority shows differentiated preferences, giving largest weight to normative considerations, with assessments affected by moderating features (e.g., scenarios of just war). Principled rejection of arms trade and a large consequentialist weight for normative factors are more pronounced in Germany compared to France, indicating that public opinion might pose a stronger constraint for government policy in this country. Respondents' preferences match opinion polls on post‐Russian invasion Ukraine armament, indicating high external validity of our experiments.

No Strings Attached: Understanding Turkey’s Arms Exports to Africa

ABSTRACT Turkey’s defence industries have shown significant development in recent years. But the limited domestic market and the financial crisis created sustainability problems for the industry. To increase its arms sales, Turkey began to search for potential markets to expand, and Africa emerged as an excellent market to enter. Turkey had already invested in Africa through its multi-track diplomacy, a necessary condition for arms sales. While the multi-track diplomacy and increased engagement helped Turkey’s arms exports, they are insufficient to explain the recent rise of Turkish arms exports, which have been showing an upward trend since 2021. This paper argues that the increase in arms exports is the function of multi-track diplomacy, no-strings-attached arms export policy and the demonstration effect.

Branding ‘progressive’ security: The case of Sweden

Contemporary research on so-called Nordic branding has provided crucial insights into the social power of states and how various actors use and circulate ‘progressive’ nation brand tropes for political and commercial goals. Hitherto, the literature on Nordic branding has focused on a wide range of substantive issues, among other things, human rights, gender equality, social welfare and foreign aid, but considerably less attention has been paid to the topic of security. The present article adds to a small but established literature on how the security sphere is increasingly entangled with nation branding. In the Nordic region, we argue, the latter is particularly evident in the case of Sweden – one of the world’s largest per-capita arms exporters in the post-Cold War era but also a country known and often revered for its peaceful and progressive image. Focusing on the case of Sweden, the article contributes to knowledge of how defence industry-related actors (both public and private) draw on and frame nation branding tropes to sell and legitimise their products and services to both insiders (domestic constituents) and outsiders (the global security market).

Symmetric and Asymmetric Relationships Between Renewable Energy, Oil Imports, Arms Exports, Military Spending, and Economic Growth in China

This paper evaluates the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between military spending (MS) and oil imports (OIM) in China. In the long run, MS increases OIM, renewable energy (RE) consumption, and gross domestic product. OIM seem to have a non-linear and asymmetric impact on MS, both in the short run and the long run. It appears that China is prompt to reduce its MS considerably whenever it is assured of its energy security. This could be partially achieved by increasing its RE consumption, and the military sector is invited to contribute, especially through its R&D activities.

THE LATEST TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENATIONAL TRADE IN ARMS AND MILITARY EQUIPMENT

At the present stage of the development of the world economy, a number of fundamental changes are taking place in the international trade in arms and military equipment (AME), which are mainly associated with the increasing global crisis and increased geopolitical tensions in the world. Within the framework of study, we summarized the main trends and problems in the development of the world arms and military equipment market, which are formed as a result of the aggravation of relations between individual countries and groups of countries. In this regard, this article analyzes changes in the mechanisms, dynamics and structure of AME exports. As a separate aspect of analysis, an assessment of the opportunities for strengthening the positions of new player countries in the market is presented. The changes observed in recent years in the commodity and geographic structure of AME imports are revealed. It was found that due to modern military conflicts, the previously established structures of international arms and military equipment trade are becoming more complex and transforming, and disruptions in global supply chains are causing the formation of a new system of relations between arms exporters and importers

European Defence Industries’ Sales Performance: A Benefit-Of-The-Doubt Based Comparative Analysis

ABSTRACT The Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated a new impetus towards an enhanced European defence pillar, while many EU members have announced significant increases in their respective defence budgets over the coming years. Expectedly, a large percentage of the capital and technological inputs required to support the efforts towards a common European defence and the increased defence needs of many EU members will be procured from the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). The European defence companies are among the major suppliers of conventional arms in the world. Their cumulative share of world arms exports is the second largest globally. This paper uses a Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BoD) model via Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to comparatively evaluate the sales performance of major European defence industries vis-à-vis other major international arms producers. The sample used in the analysis contains 72 firms and spans the period 2016–2020. The findings indicate that on the whole US defence manufacturers have a dominant presence among the biggest global producers and outrank many major European companies. These findings offer valuable policy recommendations.

Globalization of Arms Production And Hierarchical Market Economies: Explaining the Transformation of the South Korean Defense Industry

The global arms industry has experienced a major transformation in the post-Cold War era, with production becoming increasingly transnational and larger in scale. While many scholars and policymakers predicted the widespread adoption of market-enhancing reforms aimed at increasing domestic competition and attracting FDI, globalization of arms production has not led to a convergence of national defense industries into a liberal- market model. Drawing on the varieties of capitalism (VoC) literature, recent scholarship has demonstrated how an interdependent web of economic institutions has shaped each country's response in varied ways. This paper builds on the VoC literature and argues that the hierarchical market economy (HME) as a distinct variety serves as a better model for understanding the trajectory of defense industries in many second-tier producers that do not fit the existing categories of VoC. We conduct an in-depth case study of South Korea's defense-industry reform initiated in 2008 and the subsequent threefold increase in its arms exports. We show that the trajectory of South Korea's defense-industry reform can be seen as the result of an HME's attempt to adapt to the globalization of arms production in ways that preserve its distinct comparative advantage. As the HME model has broad applicability for many countries in Asia and Latin America, our findings have important implications for future developments in the global arms industry.