Arms Embargo Research Articles

“I Have Concluded That the US Government Will Adopt a New Focus in Its Policies Towards the Government of South Africa.” President Jimmy Carter and Apartheid South Africa

ABSTRACT This article examines the shift in the bilateral relationship between the United States and South Africa that occurred during the period of the Carter administration. The White House, guided primarily by Carter’s deep commitment to humanitarian principles made a progressive transformation of South African society and the ending of racial discrimination a major foreign policy objective. Both publicly and privately the Carter administration took a tough stance against Pretoria including supporting a mandatory UN arms embargo. Ultimately, however, Carter failed in his goal of dismantling apartheid and his opposition to commercial sanctions led to a deepening of economic ties between Washington and Pretoria. His administration was also unable to stop South Africa from joining the nuclear club.

Embargoes, Weapons, and Violence: The Conditional Effects of Arms Embargoes on Civilian Targeting

Abstract A primary goal of arms embargoes is to mitigate the humanitarian effects of conflict within target states by restricting access to foreign weaponry. Within this study, we investigate how embargoed governments adapt their violent strategies in response to restrictions on arms imports. We theorize that arms embargoes that undermine governments’ military strength may inadvertently increase their reliance on civilian repression as an alternative approach to countering domestic threats. However, we expect that targeted governments’ ability to acquire weapons from non-participating or non-compliant suppliers will have a mitigating effect. A global examination of the effects of arms embargoes between 1989 and 2004 supports our argument and also suggests that both the levels of arms received and who supplies them matter. Our findings suggest that policymakers who employ arms embargoes should consider increased violence against civilians as a potential unintended consequence and closely monitor target governments’ use of repression.

Can Arms Embargoes Stop the Weapon Transfers to Target States? An Exploratory Meta-Analysis

ABSTRACT This study performs a meta-regression analysis of studies examining the efficacy of arms embargoes in stopping weapons transfers to target countries. Based on the existing body of literature, the effectiveness of arms embargoes remains a subject of debate, contingent on both the rigorous enforcement of the embargo by the sender and the embargo-busting practices of exporting countries. Drawing upon a dataset comprising over 150 estimates, the findings of this analysis suggest that there is only a weak, yet statistically significant, negative impact of arms embargoes on arms transfers to target states. This result implies that, on average, arms embargoes are only successful to a limited extent in impeding or reducing the arms trade with these nations. However, the findings also demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity in the embargo effect reported across the primary studies, indicating that certain embargoes still exhibit strong efficacy. Specifically, comprehensive obligatory arms embargoes that are imposed by multiple senders substantially reduce the major conventional arms transfers to target states, particularly within the first year of their imposition.

External arms embargoes and their implications for government expenditure, democracy and internal conflict

We examine how arms imports reductions due to external arms embargoes affect military expenditure, democratic quality and internal conflict in a sample of 48 countries from 1990 to 2017. We construct a theoretical model of arms restrictions influencing probabilities of peaceful and conflictual states via actions and efforts undertaken by the government and rebels to promote peace. We postulate that the effect of external arms embargoes on internal conflict is conditional, requiring empirical investigation. Our empirical analysis, based on the Panel Vector Autoregressive methods, reveals that the responses of political system and different indices of democracy to decreases in arms imports are positive, and the impact on military expenditures is negative, while the responses of education expenditures, health expenditures are positive. Despite this, our findings show that arms transfer restrictions can intensify ethnic tensions and internal conflicts.

Res. 2664 (U.N.S.C.) and Res. 52/13 (U.N.H.R.C.)

Under Article 41 of the UN Charter, the Security Council has established 31 sanctions regimes since 1966. Sanctions measures encompass a broad range of enforcement actions not involving the use of armed force. The measures have ranged from comprehensive economic and trade sanctions to more targeted measures such as arms embargoes, travel bans, and financial or commodity restrictions. In recent years, there have been increasing numbers of complaints from humanitarian organizations that sanctions cause or exacerbate humanitarian crises. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has estimated that at least 222 million people were experiencing acute food insecurity at the end of 2022, the largest global food crisis in modern history. At the same time, the countries that need the most assistance are often subject to international sanctions regimes. As of March 2023, UN sanctions applied in nine of the top ten operations of the International Committee of the Red Cross.

What Drives the European Union's Contemporary Strategic Engagement with China?

Abstract: This article discusses the main determinants of the European Union's (EU) strategic engagement with China with reference to three theoretical viewpoints: an institutional perspective, a values-based approach and a realpolitik dimension. It examines the utility of each theoretical position and outlines complementary and divergent essential characteristics. This examination is conducted with the aid of empirical evidence from long-standing points of interaction between the EU and China over the last three decades. These include the EU's arms embargo of China, EU–China competition in Africa and the EU's position on designating market economy status to China. This analysis can reduce the misunderstandings and uncertainties embedded in the contemporary EU–China relationship.

Small Governing Coalition in Hong Kong and its Impact on Political Freedom

Small Governing Coalition in Hong Kong and its Impact on Political Freedom

‘Mauser Japonés’ & ‘Remington Ruso’: A History of the Arisaka and Mosin–Nagant Rifles in the Mexican Revolution

During periods of arms scarcity, the Mexican army imported several different patterns of bolt-action rifles to address shortages and maintain firepower. During the Mexican Revolution (ca. 1910–1920), the Mexican Army—facing multiple domestic rebellions, European reluctance to supply weapons, and a U.S. arms embargo—turned to Japan to fill the growing gaps in its rifle inventory. Once the U.S. arms embargo was lifted, Mexico purchased numerous bolt-action rifles from the United States, including U.S.-produced Mosin–Nagant rifles. This article seeks to elaborate the historical background of these two unconventional and intriguing arms deals, and examines how a country engulfed in continuous civil wars managed to utilise the purchase and disposition of foreign surplus arms as part of its diplomatic agenda in the 1930s. The author presents a narrative of a twenty-year period of Mexican history as viewed through the histories of two obscure, yet important, rifles.

The Unintended Consequences of Arms Embargoes

Abstract To what extent do arms embargoes curtail the embargoed state's ability to get conventional weapons? We argue that arms embargoes rarely prevent states from receiving conventional weapons, and are one of the few events that push states to switch their supplier base. Using a new dataset on the place of origin of conventional weapons, we provide a more full and complete picture of the effects of arms embargoes imposed by the United Nations and European Union. We show that middlemen, a previously obscured category of states who sell, but do not produce arms, are crucial to skirting embargoes. This article suggests that arms embargoes are a more complicated foreign policy tool than scholars have previously appreciated, and that policymakers need to be cautious in imposing them.

A Role to Play for Interest Groups in EU Foreign and Security Policy: The Case of Migration Focused EU - Libya Policies

Following the fall of Gaddafi, Libya has fallen apart, and this vast and resource-rich country with around 1,800 km coastline to the southern side of the central Mediterranean has become a failed state. The crisis stemming from Libya has significant impact on the EU: Not only for irregular migration but also due to its security, economic and geopolitical importance to EU. Despite this multifaceted significance, EU Libya poli- cies have been focusing on the migration dimension of the crisis and making use of non-functioning Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions as the primary policy tool. That is why the EU missed the oppor- tunity to solve the crisis from an early age and has been sidelined with the escalating conflict. In the absence of EU, rival international actors took over the Libya dossier and started to shape the developments per their interests. If the EU does not take lessons from previous mistakes, it will soon lose its influence over Libya, which might turn out to be quite detrimental for its interests. As this is a multifaceted and multi-dimensional web of relations, the policy paper at hand focuses explicitly on the “migration” dimension and makes infer- ences based on this narrower scope. Interest Groups (IGs) are prominent actors in the migration dimension of the Libya crisis. This policy paper depicts that there are at least 738 IGs concerned with European or global level migration & asylum policies, and they have had hundreds of interactions with members of the EU Commission and Parliament. IGs have been spending money, energy and other resources to influence the EU policies in this field. However, up to now, just like EU Libya policies, their efforts on migration-related problems stemming from Libya has failed. Following a comprehensive description of the current status of migration dimension of EU Libya policies together with the role of various IGs, this policy brief examines the causes of (in)effectiveness of IGs’ efforts in influencing EU policies. It argues that public salience, internal security concerns of the member states and highly politicised nature of the migration issue makes it difficult for IGs to be influence. Irregular migration is not a matter on its own; it is a consequence of a causal link. In solving the issue, the EU needs a multifaceted approach, which considers IGs an integral partner and utilises IGs soft power, knowledge and expertise to increase the EU’s leverage. The policy paper at hand recommends EU and IGs to develop a partnership model which requires coordi- nation and assistance in Libya matters, without damaging the neutral interlocutor position of the IGs. This new model foresees IG support in handling IDPs, refugees/irregular migrants, training and monitoring of the Libyan officials, or in reporting about the humanitarian aspects. Requires EU to utilise IGs in addressing the sources of grievances between local ethnic, tribal and religious groups, or facilitating the truth-seeking ven- tures and repairing the relations between rival groups. IGs can support EU policies by providing mentorship to sovereign economic, financial, auditing institutions or misfunctioning judiciary, public health or education institutions. EU should benefit from IGs in the prevention of radicalisation/extremism, as well. For the sake of preventing the emergence of several and conflicting member state Libya policies, EU su- pranational bodies should lead to the process vis á vis overall EU interests. To save IGs from the complex power-sharing structure, European External Action Service should undertake the one single coordinator role with IGs. EU officials should encourage or —if need be— stipulate Libyan authorities to cooperate with IGs in their operations for Libya. EU may consider using military CSDP operations or EU battlegroup to protect the peace process from spoilers or destructive foreign meddling or defend the governing institutions from the impact of various militia groups and enforce the arms embargo. EU should also activate a competent sanctions policy against the spoilers of the process. Another crucial task for the EU will be the construction of a unified and reliable security apparatus. IGs can build the support that the EU requires on the ground. EU requirements overlap with IGs interests; they both need to construct a thriving society, inclusive politics, and good governance, which will make Libya a hard-to-find neighbour/ally to the EU.

Diplomasi Koersif Amerika Serikat Terhadap Indonesia Melalui Embargo 1991-2005

This article aims to analyze the effectiveness of the coercive diplomacy carried out by the United States against Indonesia. These coercive diplomatic actions are in the form of embargoes, such as arms embargoes and IMET Ban. This study uses qualitative research methods using secondary data. The long duration of the IMET Ban and the arms embargo that occurred more than once made the United States' coercive diplomacy towards Indonesia look ineffective. Therefore, this study raises the research question "Why is the United States' coercive diplomacy towards Indonesia through the Arms Embargo and IMET Ban not effective?" and will be answered using the variables provided by Tom Sauer in the concept of the effectiveness of coercive diplomacy. Seeing the current conditions, if Indonesia buys military equipment from Russia, such as the Su-35, it will be subject to sanctions, so this research can conclude that the coercive diplomacy carried out by the United States against Indonesia is not effective.

PENJATUHAN SANKSI UNI EROPA ATAS TINDAKAN ANEKSASI RUSIA DI KRIMEA, UKRAINA

<div>This study raises the issue of the legality of the imposition of European Union sanctions for Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Ukraine based on international law and the forms of imposing these sanctions. The method used in this research is normative legal research and is prescriptive. The types and sources of research data used are primary legal materials and secondary legal materials collected by using library research legal materials collection techniques. The data analysis technique used is a deductive mindset technique. This research results that the legality of EU sanctions is Council Decision 2014/512/CFSP and Council Regulation (EU) No. 833/2014 with provisions for imposing sanctions based on the European Union Agreement adopted within the framework of the Common Foreign Security and Policy (CFSP). The form of sanctions imposed are; (1) Arms embargo; (2) Export of dual-use goods; (3) Financial sanctions; (4) Prohibition of fulfilling claims; (5) Restrictions on services and other items.</div>

How to sanction international wrongdoing? The design of EU restrictive measures

Sanctions are among the most widely used foreign policy tools of governments and international organizations in response to national or international wrongdoings. Beyond the dichotomous question of whether to adopt or not to adopt sanctions against a target, decision-makers develop different designs when they impose restrictions: targeted sanctions like asset freezes and travel bans, arms embargoes, or economic sanctions such as financial restrictions and commodity bans. What accounts for this variation in the design of sanctions regimes? This article investigates this question by developing a configurational explanation that combines domestic- and international-level factors for the choice of an economic versus a targeted sanctions design. I test these factors on original data mapping European Union (EU) autonomous sanctions against third countries in force in 2019 through set-theoretic methods. The analysis shows that a militarily strong target’s serious misbehavior through grave human rights violations triggers EU action in the form of economic sanctions, however, only in combination with two conditions: first, the EU reacts to a misbehavior through the adoption of an economic design when the United States imposes economic sanctions, too (path 1); second, the salience of a target’s conflict triggers an economic design of sanctions in case of grave human rights violations (path 2).

Arms imports in the wake of embargoes

Do states circumvent embargoes by supplying weapons across borders to sanctioned countries? We report evidence that arms imports systematically increase in the neighborhood of conflict states under an embargo. Using several alternative research-design specifications, we contend that this pattern is consistent with arms exporters shifting the arms trade to neighbors of conflict states under sanctions, where it is easier to move arms clandestinely across the border. Despite the lack of direct evidence of clandestine cross-border trafficking, this research contributes to the development of more sophisticated screening tools to identify potential non-compliers with arms embargoes for direct follow-up investigations.

Globalization, deglobalization and human security: the case of Myanmar

Abstract Increased nationalism, greater protectionism and a gradual move away from a rules-based international order by some members of the international community do not bode well for vulnerable populations around the globe. Human security is threatened by a host of non-traditional security challenges catalysed by the growth of physical technologies and require multifaceted responses from a variety of actors. Many of those actors look to transnational networks built on globalized liberal order's social norms—what we call social technologies—for protection. The dwindling interconnectedness of deglobalization is likely to further empower corrupt governments at the expense of vulnerable citizens. This results from a decreased willingness by states and international institutions to defend human security. Whether one looks at the plight of persecuted citizens during Burma's military junta, human slaves in the fisheries off the coast of Indonesia, or farmers uprooted from their land by palm oil plantations, without social technologies to counterbalance the negative implications of physical technology the international community will lack the political capacity (sanctions, arms embargoes, travel restrictions, etc.), to aid those most in need. Ultimately, the effects of deglobalization on human security will depend largely on the trajectory of social technology developing alongside advances in physical technology.

Human rights sanctions and the role of black knights: Evidence from the EU’s post-Soviet neighbours

ABSTRACT Respect for human rights is one of the main conditions for European Union (EU) cooperation with third countries. When human rights are gravely violated, the EU can apply a variety of restrictive measures ranging from issuing sanctions threats to imposing economic sanctions. However, can such measures impact the subsequent human rights situation in the target country, and under what conditions? Using time-series cross-sectional data accounting for eleven post-Soviet states over a period of twenty-six years (1991–2016), this article demonstrates that the impact of sanctions on the target’s human rights situation depends on two factors – the type of sanction applied and the extent of the target’s linkage with alternative regional powers. In the absence of regional alternative support, sanctions in the form of arms embargoes and aid suspension demonstrate a positive effect on the human rights situation.

A Farewell to Arms: Arms Embargo Busting and Arms Control in Europe and the European Union

A Farewell to Arms: Arms Embargo Busting and Arms Control in Europe and the European Union

The Supply of Small Arms and Light Weapons to Conflict Zones: The Bane of Onset, Intensity and Duration of Armed Conflict in Africa

Small arms fuel violence and intensify human suffering in conflict situations across the globe. The illicit trafficking, proliferation and misuse of small arms have grave impacts on human security, development and human rights. They hamper conflict resolution, peace-building and commercial activities in various parts of the world, affecting the lives of millions. In recent years, attention has come to focus on the ways in which the increased availability of low-cost small arms and light weapons contributes to the likelihood, intensity and duration of armed conflict. This paper has examined the full range of sources of small arms in Africa region. It recognizes the importance of large international transfers in weapons sourcing to conflict zones; at the same time, however, it reinforces lesser-known findings regarding the role of production, government stockpiles, and the so-called ant trade in the fuelling conflict. For more emphasis, the paper is anchored on the combination of three different theories; the theory of relative autonomy of state, conflict theory and failed state theory. In developing a more comprehensive approach to conflict sourcing, the role of politics must not be overlooked. Small arms proliferation is essentially a political issue, as the politically motivated leakages from military stockpiles and state-sponsored transfers in the region. The paper further reveled that government stockpiles is an important source of weapons in many conflict zones, through corruption, theft, seizure, distribution, and sales. In some conflicts, they are even the main source of small arms for all combatants. As observed, in the long run, persistent smaller shipments of small arms can be more significant in terms of volume than occasional large-scale trafficking of guns. Where the ant trade is important, policy responses become more complicated. Therefore, to control brokering, streamlining end-user certificates, and establishing arms embargoes, an effective policy also needs to tackle corruption and make the control of border regions and of the border itself more effective. In addition, policies must be tailored to individual states. While regional and international approaches are useful, their limitations must also be clearly understood. Keywords : Small Arms, Light Weapons, Proliferation, Arms supply, Armed Conflict, Africa DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/88-01 Publication date: November 30 th 2020

The Arab Spring and the International Defense Market

AbstractThe aim of this study is to analyze the impact of the political violence during the Arab Spring on the stock market return of international defense firms. The direction of this impact is not directly straightforward as the civil unrests influence the expectations of investors in two opposite ways. On the one hand, investors might expect that when the peaceful demonstrations were turned into violent events, the Arab governments involved will start acquiring more military-strategic goods to repress the protests or send a strong signal of power to ensure their stay in office. However, on the other hand, when the popular protests escalated, investors, perhaps, became more concerned about the possible imposition of international military sanctions against the Arab Spring countries to restore peace and protect human rights. The main empirical findings of a dynamic panel model clearly confirm this pattern and point out that when the Arab Spring originated, the abnormal return of international defense stocks starts to rise immediately. However, in the course of time, the concerns of the introduction of arms embargoes become stronger and eventually start to dominate, causing the abnormal return to fall again, while the idiosyncratic risk began to fall due to enhanced diversification. It turns out that firm-specific factors can explain a substantial part of the effect found. For instance, the reaction of investors to the Arab Spring is significantly larger for firms that produce predominantly military goods.

Will Blockchain Technologies Strengthen or Undermine the Effectiveness of Global Trade Control Regulations and Financial Sanctions?

Abstract Financial sanctions and trade control regulations are becoming increasingly relevant in the current global situation, characterized by multiple ongoing conflicts, sophisticated terrorist organizations, and serious tensions between international economic actors. The United Nations, under Article 41 of the UN Charter, the United States and Europe, in particular, regularly introduce and enforce a number of tools (e. g., financial restrictions, trade restrictions, arms embargoes, travel bans). Such tools can range from comprehensive, “territory-wide” sanctions against States to targeted sanctions on entities, including individuals, to obtain a change in policy or activity by the target country, part of the country, governments, entities, and individuals, with the ultimate aim of pursuing peace, human rights, democracy, and respect for the rule of law. Recent history proves that companies and financial institutions have adopted complex solutions to conceal transactions with sanctioned countries and entities. Blockchain technology, through the use of distributed digitalized ledgers, grants a high level of transparency, for instance providing real-time updates on the development of an export transaction, and the use of smart contracts can automatize payments, or the triggering of guarantees, etc. While blockchain technology continues to be an area of enormous promise, it is also one of risk, if not managed properly, especially in a transnational, multi-jurisdictional context. Not only might the use of blockchain-based solutions prove challenging for the enforcement of current international sanctions programs by competent authorities, but blockchain technologies developers will also need to set up solutions suitable to comply with the requirements imposed by the various sanctions in place. At the same time, businesses will need to determine which measures and due diligence practices are needed to protect against the risks of a sanctions violation, which can result in significant fines and even criminal penalties. This paper explores how blockchain solutions that may be implemented in the context of international financial and commercial transactions can interrelate (or interfere) with sanctions enforcement and sanctions compliance, highlighting the multiple legal issues that may arise in connection thereto.