Arizona Area Research Articles

Voluntary uptake of flood insurance in post-fire landscapes: insights from household surveys after two wildfires in northern Arizona

Wildfires can rapidly generate post-fire flood risk for downslope communities, complicating recovery and necessitating accelerated cross-boundary responses on both public and private lands. Flood insurance is one of a suite of efforts to minimize the social and financial impacts associated with post-fire flood events, but little is known about who purchases coverage after wildfires or their experiences with insurance claims. We provide an opportunistic contribution to this research gap by comparing data gathered via three mixed-mode household surveys conducted in areas with modeled flood risk after two wildfires in the greater Flagstaff, Arizona area. Two surveys were administered—one in 2011 and one in 2020—after the 2010 Schultz Fire, which resulted in significant flooding, providing a longitudinal insight into insurance experiences. A third survey was administered in 2022 following flooding adjacent to the 2019 Museum Fire. Together, these surveys resulted in a total of 1,351 usable responses. We find that several groups are significantly less likely to purchase flood insurance, including residents who moved to their property after the studied fire event and renters. The reported cost of flood insurance among households affected by the Schultz Fire doubled over a 10-year period; those who no longer maintained coverage typically reported that they stopped renewing between 2–5 years after the fire. Second homeowners were more likely to report damages that were not covered by insurance. We provide recommendations for engaging residents in uptake, renewal, and use of flood insurance and conclude that there is an urgent need to better understand decision-making surrounding post-fire flood insurance to support more equitable recovery.

Nest survival and productivity of translocated and resident burrowing owls in Arizona

AbstractDevelopment activities associated with urbanization can directly displace animals, causing high mortality and dispersal rates. Wildlife managers have attempted to mitigate the impacts of development on burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia), a species susceptible to ground‐disturbing activities, by translocating them away from areas slated for development. In this study, we evaluated the effects of translocation on burrowing owl reproduction by comparing nest survival and productivity of owls involved in an ongoing translocation program in Arizona, USA, with that of resident owls. We used nest survival models to evaluate differences in nest survival and generalized linear models with Poisson error to assess differences in productivity. In 2017, cumulative nest survival (CNS) was lower among current‐year translocated owls (i.e., owls translocated within the last year; CNS = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.18, 0.51) compared to non‐translocated resident owls (0.83, 95% CI = 0.71, 0.94), but CNS was similar between previously translocated owls (i.e., those translocated >1 yr ago, CNS = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.64, 0.98) and residents. Likewise, in 2018, CNS was lower for current‐year translocated owls (CNS = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.00, 0.24) compared to residents (CNS = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.50, 0.87) and previously translocated owls (CNS = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.40, 0.90). Productivity was significantly lower for current‐year translocated owls ( = 0.5 fledglings/nest) compared to residents ( = 2.4 fledglings/nest) and previously translocated owls ( = 1.5 fledglings/nest) across sites and years. With the current methods of translocation, owls had poor reproductive success in the first year after release, but if they survived 2 years after release, they had similar nest survival and productivity compared to residents. Our results demonstrate that the current practice of releasing translocated burrowing owls in the Phoenix, Arizona area during the breeding season depresses reproduction and should be substantially changed. Nest survival was low and this was mainly attributed to nest establishment of translocated owls within release tents (acclimation structures used in translocations that involve soft release) where 85% of nests failed following tent removal. Translocation approaches that reflect a closer fit to the timing and behavior of the species should be tested to determine whether they result in better success. In particular, future studies should examine the translocation results of releasing owls as male‐female pairs or single birds during the nonbreeding period.

Rejuvenation Mechanism of Asphalt Mixtures Modified with Crumb Rubber

Asphalt aging is one of the main factors causing asphalt pavements deterioration. Previous studies reported on some aging benefits of asphalt rubber mixtures through laboratory evaluation. A field observation of various pavement sections of crumb rubber modified asphalt friction courses (ARFC) in the Phoenix, Arizona area indicated an interesting pattern of transverse/reflective cracking. These ARFC courses were placed several years ago on existing jointed plain concrete pavements for highway noise mitigation. Over the years, the shoulders had very noticeable and extensive cracking over the joints; however, the driving lanes of the pavement showed less cracking formation in severity and extent. The issue with this phenomenon is that widely adopted theories that stem from continuum mechanics of materials and layered mechanics of pavement systems cannot directly explain this phenomenon. One hypothesis could be that traffic loads continually manipulate the pavement over time, which causes some maltenes (oils and resins) compounds absorbed in the crumb rubber particles to migrate out leading to rejuvenation of the mastic in the asphalt mixture. To investigate the validity of such a hypothesis, an experimental laboratory testing was undertaken to condition samples with and without dynamic loads at high temperatures. This was followed by creep compliance and indirect tensile strength testing. The results showed the higher creep for samples aged with dynamic loading compared to those aged without loading. Higher creep compliance was attributed to higher flexibility of samples due to the rejuvenation of the maltenes. This was also supported by the higher fracture energy results obtained for samples conditioned with dynamic loading from indirect tensile strength testing.

Understanding Past Climate-Related Migration for Our Warming World

As anthropogenic climate warming and associated climate extremes increase, insights from a century of effort in the US Southwest to understand climate-related migration should be shared to assist with modern drought planning efforts. Toward this end, we make two parallel contributions. First, we contribute a surprising finding from our work in the Mimbres area of the AD 1100s and the central Arizona area during the AD 1200–1450 period. We find people with access to the most water in this arid landscape were also the most likely to migrate when confronted with dry conditions. Second, we use these results to demonstrate how the past can be helpful to modern drought planners and others preparing for a warming climate. Millions of smallholder farmers today practice agricultural strategies similar to those in the past. We aim to stimulate archaeological efforts to address the challenges of a warming world.

The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in a rural southwest community.

The true prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been difficult to determine due to limited testing, inconsistent symptom severity, and asymptomatic infections. Systematic investigation of the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 has been limited to urban environments and large academic centers. Limited data on the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is available for those who live in a rural community setting, leaving rural practitioners to extrapolate the epidemiology of COVID-19 to a nonhomogeneous population. To determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in a community setting. The secondary objective of this study was to describe the difference in infection rate and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing in the same rural community. A prospective convenience sample of community members and healthcare workers from the Kingman, Arizona area were tested for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies using a lateral flow immunoassay with theVITROS Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG test (Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, Inc.) from September 28, 2020 to October 09, 2020. Upon recruitment, participants were asked to complete a demographic survey assessing socioeconomic status, comorbidities, and COVID-19 symptoms in the preceding twomonths. Following enrollment, a retrospective chart review was completed to determine the percentage of patients who had undergone previous SARS-CoV-RT-PCR testing. A total of 566 participants were included in the final analysis: 380 (67.1%) were women, 186 (32.9%) were men, a majority (458; 80.9%) self-identified as White, and 303 (53.5%) were employed as healthcare professionals. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was found to be 8.0% (45 of 566) across the sample and 9.9% (30 of 303) in healthcare workers. No statistical difference in seroprevalence was found between men and women, healthcare workers andother participants, amongst racial groups, by socioeconomic status, by comorbid conditions, or by education level. Among the participants, 108 (19.1%) underwent previous RT-PCR testing. Of the 45 patients who were antibody positive, 27 (60%) had received a previous RT-PCR test, with 20 (44.4%) testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Participants with symptoms of anosmia/ageusia (p<0.001), chest congestion (p=0.047), fever (p=0.007), and shortness of breath (p=0.002) within the past twomonths were more likely to have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Only 8% of 566 participants in this rural community setting were found to have antibodies for SARS-CoV-2. A large minority (18; 40%) of patients testing seropositive for SARs-CoV-2 had never received a prior test, suggesting that the actual rates of infection are higher than publicly available data suggest. Further large-scale antibody testing is needed to determine the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the rural setting.

Pan-Enterovirus Amplicon-Based High-Throughput Sequencing Detects the Complete Capsid of a EVA71 Genotype C1 Variant via Wastewater-Based Epidemiology in Arizona.

We describe the complete capsid of a genotype C1-like Enterovirus A71 variant recovered from wastewater in a neighborhood in the greater Tempe, Arizona area (Southwest United States) in May 2020 using a pan-enterovirus amplicon-based high-throughput sequencing strategy. The variant seems to have been circulating for over two years, but its sequence has not been documented in that period. As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has resulted in changes in health-seeking behavior and overwhelmed pathogen diagnostics, our findings highlight the importance of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE ) as an early warning system for virus surveillance.

Short communication: Levels of land use and land cover in Phoenix, Arizona are associated with elevated plasma triglycerides in the Gambel's Quail, Callipepla gambelii

Gambel's Quail, Callipepla gambelii, are gregarious birds commonly found in the southwestern deserts of the United States and Northwestern Mexico. With expanding urbanization, these birds are often found in exurban and suburban areas where they have access to food sources that may differ from those used by birds living in rural habitats and, as a result, also differ morphologically and physiologically. To investigate this hypothesis, we compared the morphology and nutritional physiology of quail sampled at sites varying with respect to land use and cover. We hypothesized that quail living in more developed areas have access to a greater variety of and to more stable food resources, and predicted that morphology and nutritional physiology would be associated with degree of urbanization. We sampled adult birds at locations in the greater Phoenix metropolitan, Arizona (USA) area that vary with respect to land use and cover types. At the time of capture, birds were weighed and chest circumference was recorded. We also collected a blood sample from the jugular vein of each individual for analysis of plasma glucose, total proteins, triglycerides, and free glycerol. Consistent with the hypothesis, birds living in more developed environments had larger chest circumferences and higher circulating lipid concentrations than birds living in less developed areas, suggesting greater access to lipid-rich foods. In addition, the areal proportion of grass and lakes was negatively correlated to plasma free glycerol (r = −0.46, p = .031), and positively, but not significantly, correlated to plasma protein concentrations (r = 0.388, p = .073). These results suggest that quail living in areas with more grass have access to less dietary fats than urban birds. The findings are the first to indicate an association between urbanization and the morphology and nutritional physiology of Gambel's Quail, but further study using more and larger samples is needed before these findings can be generalized.

Mapping Presence and Predicting Phenological Status of Invasive Buffelgrass in Southern Arizona Using MODIS, Climate and Citizen Science Observation Data

The increasing spread and abundance of an invasive perennial grass, buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), represents a critical threat to the native vegetation communities of the Sonoran desert in southern Arizona, USA, where buffelgrass eradication is a high priority for resource managers. Herbicidal treatment of buffelgrass is most effective when the vegetation is actively growing, but the remoteness of infestations and the erratic timing and length of the species’ growth periods confound effective treatment. The goal of our research is to promote buffelgrass management by using remote sensing data to detect where the invasive plants are located and when they are photosynthetically active. We integrated citizen scientist observations of buffelgrass phenology in the Tucson, Arizona area with PRISM precipitation data, eight-day composites of 250-m Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery, and aerially-mapped polygons of buffelgrass presence to understand dynamics and relationships between precipitation and the timing and amount of buffelgrass greenness from 2011 to 2013. Our results show that buffelgrass responds quickly to antecedent rainfall: in pixels containing buffelgrass, higher correlations (R2 &gt; 0.5) typically occur after two cumulative eight-day periods of rain, whereas in pixels dominated by native vegetation, four prior 8-day periods are required to reach that threshold. Using the new suite of phenometrics introduced here—Climate Landscape Response metrics—we accurately predicted the location of 49% to 55% of buffelgrass patches in Saguaro National Park. These metrics and the suggested guidelines for their use can be employed by resource managers to treat buffelgrass during optimal time periods.

Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis With Generation Dispatch Including Photovoltaic Resources

This paper proposes a novel probabilistic power flow (PPF) algorithm considering generation dispatch. The intent is to examine the influence of uncertainty due to photovoltaic (PV) generation resources and loads. PV generation uncertainty may have a significant impact on transmission systems since this resource is easily influenced by changing environmental conditions. However, it is prudent to include generation dispatch in the PPF algorithm since the dispatching strategy compensates for PV generation injections and influences the uncertainty in the results. The proposed PPF algorithm is based on the cumulant method. The Gram-Charlier expansion is applied to approximate the distribution of probabilistic variables. Furthermore, this paper also proposes a probabilistic optimal power dispatching strategy which considers uncertainty problems in the economic dispatch and optimizes the expected value of the total cost with the overload probability as a constraint. The Arizona area of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system is used to test the proposed PPF algorithm and compare results with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).

Probabilistic Power Flow Studies for Transmission Systems With Photovoltaic Generation Using Cumulants

This paper applies a probabilistic power flow (PPF) algorithm to evaluate the influence of photovoltaic (PV) generation uncertainty on transmission system performance. PV generation has the potential to cause a significant impact on power system reliability in the near future. A cumulant-based PPF algorithm suitable for large systems is used to avoid convolution calculations. Correlation among input random variables is considered. Specifically correlation between adjacent PV resources are considered. Three types of approximation expansions based on cumulants, namely the Gram-Charlier expansion, the Edgeworth expansion, and the Cornish-Fisher expansion, are compared, and their properties, advantages, and deficiencies are discussed. Additionally, a novel probabilistic model of PV generation is developed to obtain the probability density function (PDF) of the PV generation production based on the environmental conditions. The proposed approaches with the three expansions are compared with Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) with results for a 2497-bus representation of the Arizona area of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system.

The Impact of Religious Studies Courses: Measuring Change in College Students' Attitudes

This study explores a variety of educational outcomes on undergraduate student attitudes as a result of religious studies curriculum. Based on data collected from pre- and post-course surveys of a combined 1,116 students enrolled at Arizona State University and 2 Phoenix, Arizona area community colleges, the research examines student change across 5 outcomes: religiosity, attributional complexity, multi-religious awareness, commitment to social justice, and the first to be developed, neo-colonial measures. The sample was taken in the fall of 2009 from courses including Religions of the World, introductory Islamic studies courses, and a control group consisting of engineering and political science students. The findings were mixed. Select within-group changes showed a statistically significant positive shift, but when comparing across-groups and the control group, analysis of covariance did not reveal statistically significant findings after controlling for key variables. The students’ pre-course survey score was the best predictor of their post-course survey score. In response to the neo-colonial critiques, the non-findings suggest the critiques have been overstated in terms of their impact pedagogically or in the classroom.

Heavy metal contaminants in yerberia shop products.

Complementary and alternative medications, including the use of herbal medications, have become quite popular in the USA. Yerberias are found throughout the southwest and specialize in selling Hispanic herbal products. The products sold in these stores are not regulated by any governmental agency. Previous reports have found Ayurvedic medications contain high levels of lead, mercury, and arsenic. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the prevalence of heavy metal contaminants sold at Yerberia stores in the southwest. Yerberias in the Phoenix, Arizona area were identified via search of an on-line search engine using the words "Yerberia Phoenix." Every second store was selected, and products were purchased using a standard script. The products were subsequently analyzed for mercury, lead, and arsenic. The main outcome is the prevalence of heavy metal content in over-the-counter "cold" medications purchased at a Yerberia. Twenty-two samples were purchased. One product contained pure camphor (2-camphone) and was subsequently not further analyzed. Of the 21 samples analyzed, lead was found in 4/21 (19.4 %). Arsenic and mercury were in 1/21 (4.8 %) each. Because two samples contained two heavy metals, the total prevalence of heavy metals was 4/21 (19.4). Heavy metal contaminants are commonly encountered in over-the-counter herbal "cold" medications purchased at Yerberias in the southwest.

Carbon Emissions Based on Transportation for Post-Tensioned Slab Foundation Construction: A Production Home Building Study in the Greater Phoenix Arizona Area

There is significant focus on sustainable development of the built environment. Previous studies on sustainable construction have focused primarily upon improving the energy efficiency of buildings during the operational phase, recycling/reuse of building materials, and minimizing wastes. The environmental performance of onsite construction processes is not currently measured or reported as an industry standard practice. Measurement of carbon emissions is one way to understand and improve the environmental performance of onsite construction processes. This study provides an estimation of carbon emissions for transportation in post-tensioned slab foundation construction. Data were collected from a concrete trade contractor and sub-trade contractors in the Greater Phoenix Arizona area. First, carbon emissions are quantified for a typical production home using regional average data. Second, the influence of material and equipment transportation on the relative contribution of trades toward total carbon emissions is quantified. Ready-mix concrete transportation is found to be one of the most significant components and accounts anywhere from 25% to 63% of the total carbon emissions. Third, what-if scenario analysis is presented to study the influence of floor slab size and the travel distance on carbon emissions based on ready-mix concrete supply. Finally, an example is presented to demonstrate the aggregate level impacts.

A model for assessing wildlife habitats in urban landscapes of eastern Pima County, Arizona (USA)

The loss of large natural areas due to development has increased interest for and use of vegetated areas in urban and suburban areas for wildlife habitats. The goal of this study was to quantify vegetation characteristics for each type of land cover found in the greater Tucson, Arizona area, thereby providing a predictive tool for wildlife management and other land management issues. This research was based on and is a continuation of a pilot study that developed a method associating land cover categories to aerial photographs in eastern Pima County, including the City of Tucson. Aggregation of land cover categories used by Tucson and Pima County and verifications of any uncertain classifications of land cover with field evaluations produced a consistent land cover classification system and database. Natural open space was the largest land cover category within our study area, comprising 52% of the total land cover. Riparian areas, low-density housing and natural open space areas had the highest percentage of native vegetation and escape cover. Golf and neighborhood parks ranked much lower than these land covers relative to native vegetation and escape cover (vegetation with foliage/stems at ground level). The most structurally diverse plant communities were associated with medium density residential areas and zoos that contain a relatively high number of exotic species. Results from the wildlife habitats index indicated riparian areas as the most valuable habitats in eastern Pima County (the county where Tucson is located), followed by low-density housing (≤1 residence/acre), natural open space, and federal/state parks and forests.

Exposure of Children to Pesticide in Yuma Co

Arizona Prevention Center, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ. *Western Arizona Area Health Education Center, Yuma, AZ.

Analysis of Leporid Remains from Prehistoric Sinagua Sites, Northern Arizona

The Sinagua inhabited the San Francisco Peaks region of northern Arizona fromad625–1400. Analysis of leporid remains from 14 Padre (ad1070–1150) and Elden (ad1150–1220) phase sites indicates that the prehistoric inhabitants of the region relied heavily on both jackrabbits and cottontails. The bones are well preserved, and tend to be relatively complete and unfragmented. Body part frequencies and bone damage in the Sinagua assemblages are very different from patterns observed in samples from sites in the Great Basin and the Hohokam area of central and southern Arizona. Both of these latter areas seem to have witnessed much more intensive processing of leporids. The less intensive processing of the bones suggests that the Sinagua did not suffer from the extreme dietary stress that has been proposed for the Hohokam. The leporid index, which measures the relative proportions of cottontails and jackrabbits, indicates that the Sinagua assemblages tend to be dominated by jackrabbits. This contrasts with findings from other sites excavated in the northern Arizona area. The predominance of jackrabbits does not seem to be solely a function of environmental factors, and may reflect a garden hunting strategy.

Regional Source Profiles of Sources of SOx at the Grand Canyon During Project Mohave

Total fluoride (gas plus fine particle), spherical alumino silicate particles, particulate selenium, arsenic, lead, bromine, and absorption of light by fine particles have been used to characterize chemical profiles for sources of sulfur oxides impacting the Grand Canyon National Park Class I Visibility Region. During the Project MOHAVE (Measurement of Haze and Visual Effects) winter and summer intensive studies in 1992, these various species were determined at seven sampling sites in and around the Grand Canyon. Extensive upper air and surface-based meteorological measurements were examined to determine probable geographical origins of the air mass present during a given sampling period for each sampling site. Samples corresponding to air masses dominated by transport from a single major source region were used to determine a source profile for each region. Source regions which have been characterized by this analysis include the San Joaquin Valley area, the southern California coastal urban area, the Baja, California- Imperial Valley area, the Arizona and Mexico area (including major smelters) south of the Grand Canyon, the area southeast of the Grand Canyon, the Colorado Plateau area, the Wasatch Front in Utah, and the area in Nevada to the west and northwest of the Grand Canyon. Source profiles giving the ratio of each endemic marker to SOx for each identified regional source in these areas have been determined. The source profiles for the various regional sources are all statistically different and distinguishable from those for other geographically adjoining sources.

Use of a Numerical Model for Management of Shallow Ground‐Water Levels in the Yuma, Arizona Area

AbstractThe Yuma area has experienced agricultural development since the late 1890s and ground‐water levels have risen over 70 feet due to recharge from heavy application of irrigation water, unlined canals and flooding along the Colorado and Gila Rivers. The resulting shallow water levels have seriously impacted residential areas and prime agricultural land.The Arizona Department of Water Resources in conjunction with Yuma County Flood Control District developed a regional three‐dimensional ground‐water flow model of the Yuma area. The purpose of the model is to assist local agencies in evaluating remedial water management alternatives to mitigate the shallow ground‐water level problems.The model domain incorporates over 900 mi2 of Arizona, California, and Mexico and simulates ground‐water pumpage, deep percolation from agricultural irrigation, evapotranspiration from phreatophytes and flow in 12 canals, 16 drains, and the Colorado and Gila Rivers. The model contains four layers with over 30,000 model cells ranging in size from 40 acres to 640 acres.Different model scenario simulations were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed water management alternatives on lowering ground‐water levels within the northern portion of Yuma Valley. These scenarios include lining a portion of the East Main canal and pumping two drainage wells, lining the All‐American canal, and simulating a decrease in deep percolation from agricultural irrigation on the Yuma Mesa and northern portion of Yuma Valley.

Seasonal Migration as a Substitute for, or Precursor to, Permanent Migration

Seasonal migration to national amenity areas is a major form of cyclical migration in the United States. This article examines conditions under which seasonal movement serves as a substitute for, or precursor to, permanent migration among winter visitors to recreational vehicle (RV) parks in the Phoenix, Arizona area. Ties to the home community, ties to the seasonal residence, demographic characteristics, and commitment to a mobile lifestyle are specified as determinants of expectations of moving to Phoenix on a permanent basis. The model is tested using survey data for a sample of 1,001 winter visitors in Phoenix RV parks. Results of a discriminant analysis indicate that place ties and position in the life cycle condition expectations of permanently migrating to a seasonal residence.

What happens after restructuring?

In 1989, the Salt River Project (SRP), a utility that serves customers in and around the Phoenix, Arizona area, made significant changes in its organizational structure. The company started the process of revising its corporate culture to reflect changes in the business and marketing environment of the utility industry.