Arges County Research Articles

Cropland change in southern Romania: a comparison of logistic regressions and artificial neural networks

Changes in cropland have been the dominating land use changes in Central and Eastern Europe, with cropland abandonment frequently exceeding cropland expansion. However, surprisingly little is known about the rates, spatial patterns, and determinants of cropland change in Eastern Europe. We study cropland changes between 1995 and 2005 in Arges County in Southern Romania with two distinct modeling techniques. We apply and compare spatially explicit logistic regressions with artificial neural networks (ANN) using an integrated socioeconomic and environmental dataset. The logistic regressions allow identifying the determinants of cropland changes, but cannot deal with non-linear and complex functional relationships nor with collinearity between variables. ANNs relax some of these rigorous assumptions inherent in conventional statistical modeling, but likewise have drawbacks such as the unknown contribution of the parameters to the outcome of interest. We compare the outcomes of both modeling techniques quantitatively using several goodness-of-fit statistics. The resulting spatial predictions serve to delineate hotspots of change that indicate areas that are under more eminent threat of future abandonment. The two modeling techniques address two controversial issues of concern for land-change scientists: (1) to identify the spatial determinants that conditioned the observed changes and (2) to deal with complex functional relationships between influencing variables and land use processes. The spatially explicit insights into patterns of cropland change and in particular into hotspots of change derived from multiple methods provide useful information for decision-makers.

Corporate Social Responsibility in Romanian SMEs: A Research Note on the Case of the Arges County

Corporate Social Responsibility in Romanian SMEs: A Research Note on the Case of the Arges County

Land use change in Southern Romania after the collapse of socialism

The drastic socio-economic and political changes that occurred after the breakdown of socialism in Eastern Europe triggered widespread land use change, including cropland abandonment and forest cover changes. Yet the rates and spatial patterns of post-socialist land use change remain largely unclear. We used Landsat TM/ETM+ images to classify land cover maps and assess landscape pattern changes from 1990 to 2005 in Arges County, Southern Romania. Cropland abandonment was the most widespread change (21.1% abandonment rate), likely due to declining returns from farming, tenure insecurity, and demographic developments during transition. Forest cover and forest fragmentation remained remarkably stable during transition, despite widespread ownership transfers. Cropland abandonment provides opportunities for increased carbon sequestration, but threatens cultural landscapes and biodiversity. Continued monitoring is important for assessing whether abandoned croplands will eventually reforest or be put back into production and to better understand the consequences of post-socialist land use change for ecosystems and biodiversity.

Universal salt iodization effects on endemic goiter in Arges county, Romania

Universal salt iodization effects on endemic goiter in Arges county, Romania