Grassland Areas Research Articles

Association of Built Environment with Well-Being: An Experience Sampling Method

Abstract Background Well-being (WB) is important because it extends beyond physical health, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). From a temporal perspective, WB encompasses two aspects: long-term WB (LWB), such as overall life satisfaction, and momentary WB (MWB), such as immediate mood. While research has demonstrated a positive association between built environments such as urban land, grassland areas, and LWB, there is limited research exploring the association between the characteristics of built environments and MWB. Methods We applied the Experience Sampling Method (ESM) to collect data on the location, detailed environmental characteristics, and the MWB and LWB of adult participants living in Kashiwa City, Japan. Structural equation modeling was used to calculate the correlation coefficients between different built environments and both MWB and LWB. Results Nine hundred reports from 273 valid participants were obtained. In terms of types of locations, it was shown that cafes/restaurants/bars (coefficients = 0.85), culture/sport/education facilities (0.45), and public spaces (0.62) have a positive association with MWB. Additionally, environments perceived as natural (0.43), relaxing, and clean (2.31) have a positive association with MWB. Conversely, being on the move (-0.88) and vibrant environments (-0.58) have a negative association with MWB. Moreover, higher LWB levels were associated with higher MWB (0.64). Conclusions This study used the ESM to measure MWB and confirmed an association with various built environments. These findings provide guidance for city planning and policies that focus on enhancing urban well-being. This study highlights the benefits of places such as parks and cafes that promote happiness and the need for well-designed transportation and roads. These elements are important for developing urban areas that not only meet residents’ physical requirements but also support their emotional and psychological well-being. Key messages • Our findings show that public spaces, cafes, and cultural facilities are significantly associated with MWB, highlighting their role in urban planning as places that promote happiness. • ‘Being on the move’ is associated with lower MWB, indicating the need for well-designed transportation and road environments.

Impact of land-use change on coupling coordination degree of regional water–food–carbon system

IntroductionThe objective of this study is to investigate the impact of land use changes on the coupling coordination of the regional water-food-carbon system in Hebei Province. Moreover, the findings aim to offer insights for achieving comprehensive and coordinated development of regional resources.MethodsBy constructing an evaluation index system of the coupled coordinated development of the water-food-carbon system, using the coupled coordination model to study the coupled coordination of the water-food-carbon (WFC) system in Hebei Province from 2010 to 2020, and applying the Pearson correlation coefficient and ArcGIS to analyze the impacts of land-use changes on the degree of coupled coordination.ResultsThe results show that: (1) The most notable characteristics of land type changes include a decrease in cropland and an increase in construction land, primarily driven by the conversion of cropland to construction sites. The total area converted amounts to 8207.20 km2. (2) The degree of coupled coordination of the water-food-carbon system in the study area as a whole shows an upward and then downward trend, and shows a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the north-east and low in the south-west”; (3) In Hebei Province, the degree of coupling coordination within the water-food-carbon system exhibits a stable positive correlation with forest land, grassland, and water area. Additionally, the transfer of forest land and grassland are significant factors influencing the delineation of cold and hot spots within the region.DiscussionTherefore, in addressing the coordinated development of the water-food-carbon system, it is essential to consider the influence of land. Resources should be allocated judiciously based on regional advantages to promote sustainable development effectively.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Soil Erosion in the Pisha Sandstone Region: Influences of Precipitation and Vegetation

The Pisha sandstone area, situated in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River in China, is characterized by severe soil and water erosion, making it one of the most critical regions on the Loess Plateau. The rugged terrain and exposed bedrock complicate management efforts for this area, posing challenges for accurate forecasting using soil erosion models. Through an analysis of terrain, vegetation, and precipitation impacts on soil erosion, this study offers theoretical support for predicting soil erosion within the exposed Pisha sandstone area of the Loess Plateau. This has substantial implications for guiding water and soil conservation measures in this region. Focusing on China’s exposed sandstone area within the Geqiugou watershed, temporal and spatial changes in vegetation cover and land use from 1990 to 2020 were analyzed. The result shows that, from 1990 to 2020, the grassland area has exhibited a consistent downward trend, with successive reductions of 64.86% to 59.46%. The area of low vegetation cover witnessed a significant decline of 59.29% in 2020 compared to that in 1990. The moderate erosion area decreased from 84.52 to 57.17 km2. The significant reduction in soil and water loss can be attributed to the expansion of forest and grassland areas, with the implementation of the Grain for Green project serving as a key policy driver for facilitating this expansion. This study provided a good example of combining rainfall with vegetation coverage to fast estimation soil erosion. A mathematical relationship between the vegetation rainfall coupling index (RV) and soil erosion was established with strong fitting effects, enabling estimation of the soil erosion volume under varying slope conditions within Pisha sandstone areas. The main focus of future soil and water conservation in the Pisha sandstone area should be on effectively managing the channel slope and minimizing exposed bedrock areas through a combination of slope cutting, the application of anticorrosive materials, and the implementation of artificial vegetation planting.

Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and driving mechanism of ecosystem water use efficiency in the Loess Plateau, China

Study regionThe Loess Plateau, China Study focusThe trade-off between carbon uptake and water loss, characterized by ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE), deeply influences ecosystem sustainability. In this study, WUE was estimated based on GPP from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product and ET simulated by the Priestley Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model. The emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) was used to comprehensively examine the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of WUE. Additionally, the Geodetector model was employed to identify the main drivers of WUE and quantify the interactive effects of drivers on WUE, focusing on different vegetation types. New hydrological insights for the regionResults indicated obvious spatial heterogeneity of WUE under different vegetation and hydro-climatic conditions. Significant increases in WUE occurred in sub-humid cropland and grassland areas that have experienced large-scale ecological restoration and agricultural intensification. By contrast, slight decreases in WUE were observed in semi-arid grassland areas, some of which were accompanied by intensifying cold spots. It was noteworthy that WUE in some hot spots with excessive vegetation coverage also showed a slight downward trend. Further, the WUE pattern in cropland/forests/grassland was dominated by the interaction of vegetation coverage (characterized by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) and precipitation/air temperature/vapor pressure deficit, with NDVI playing a leading role and hydro-climatic drivers playing a supporting role.

Evaluation of Groundwater Potential Zones Using GIS‐Based Machine Learning Ensemble Models in the Gidabo Watershed, Ethiopia

AbstractThe main objective of this study is to map and evaluate groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) using advanced ensemble machine learning (ML) models, notably Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). GWPZs are identified by considering essential factors such as geology, drainage density, slope, land use/land cover (LULC), rainfall, soil, and lineament density. This is combined with datasets used for training and validating the RF and SVM models, which consisted of 75 potential sites (boreholes and springs), 22 non‐potential sites (bare lands and settlement areas), and 20 potential sites (water bodies). Each dataset is randomly partitioned into two sets: training (70%) and validation (30%). The model's performance is evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC‐ROC). The AUC of the RF model is 0.91, compared to 0.88 for the SVM model. Both models classified GWPZs effectively, but the RF model performed slightly better. The classified GWPZ map shows that high GWPZs are typically located within water bodies, natural springs, low‐lying regions, and forested areas. In contrast, low GWPZs are primarily found in shrubland and grassland areas. This study is vital for decision‐makers as it promotes sustainable groundwater use and ensures water security in the studied area.

Detecting Drought-Related Temporal Effects on Global Net Primary Productivity

Drought has extensive, far-reaching, and long-lasting asymmetric effects on vegetation growth worldwide in the context of global warming. However, to date, few scholars have attempted the systematic quantification of the temporal effects of drought on global vegetation across various vegetation types and diverse climate zones. Addressing this gap, we quantitatively investigated the effects of drought on global vegetation growth under various scenarios, considering lagged and cumulative effects as well as combined effects in the 1982–2018 period. Our investigation was based on long-term net primary productivity (NPP) and two multiple-timescale drought indices: the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and the standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Our main findings were the following: (1) SPI and SPEI exhibited lagged effects on 52.08% and 37.05% of global vegetation, leading to average time lags of 2.48 months and 1.76 months, respectively. The cumulative effects of SPI and SPEI were observed in 80.01% and 72.16% of global vegetated areas, respectively, being associated with relatively longer cumulative timescales of 5.60 months and 5.16 months, respectively. (2) Compared to the scenario excluding temporal effects, there were increases in the explanatory powers of SPI and SPEI for variations in vegetation NPP based on the lagged, cumulative, and combined effects of drought: SPI increased by 0.82%, 6.65%, and 6.92%, respectively, whereas SPEI increased by 0.67%, 5.73%, and 6.07%, respectively. The cumulative effects of drought on global vegetation NPP were stronger than the lagged effects in approximately two-thirds (64.95% and 63.52% for SPI and SPEI, respectively) of global vegetated areas. (3) The effects of drought on vegetation NPP varied according to climate zones and vegetation types. Interestingly, vegetation in arid zones was the most sensitive and resilient to drought, as indicated by its rapid response to drought and the longest cumulative timescales. The vegetation NPP in tropical and temperate zones exhibited a relatively stronger response to drought than that in cold and polar zones. The strongest correlation of vegetation NPP with drought occurred in shrubland areas, followed by grassland, cropland, forest, and tundra areas. Moreover, for each vegetation type, the correlations between vegetation NPP and drought differed significantly among most climate zones. (4) The vegetation NPP in warming-induced drought regions displayed a higher correlation to drought than that in non-warming-induced drought regions, with shorter lagged and longer cumulative timescales. Our findings highlight the heterogeneity of the lagged, cumulative, and combined effects of drought across various climate zones and vegetation types; this could enhance our understanding of the coupling relationship between drought and global vegetation.

Comparative Study of Potential Habitats for Two Endemic Grassland Caterpillars on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on BIOMOD2 and Land Use Data.

This study has systematically investigated and compared the geographical distribution patterns and population density of G. menyuanensis (Gm) and G. qinghaiensis (Gq), which are endemic to the QTP region and inflict severe damage. Using a method combining the BIOMOD2 integration model (incorporating nine ecological niche models) and current species distribution data, this study has compared changes in potential habitats and distribution centers of these two species during ancient, present, and future climate periods and conducted a correlation test on the prediction results with land use types. The study results indicate that there are differences in geographical distribution patterns, distribution elevations, and population density of these two species. Compared with single models, the integration model exhibits prominent accuracy and stability with higher KAPPA, TSS, and AUC values. The distribution of suitable habitats for these two species is significantly affected by climatic temperature and precipitation. There is a significant difference between the potential habitats of these two species. Gm and Gq are distributed in the northeastern boundary area and the central and eastern areas of the QTP, respectively. The areas of their suitable habitats are significantly and positively correlated with the area of grassland among all land use types of QTP, with no correlations with the areas of other land use types of QTP. The potential habitats of both species during the paleoclimate period were located in the eastern and southeastern boundary areas of the QTP. During the paleoclimate period, their potential habitats expanded towards the Hengduan Mountains (low-latitude regions) in the south compared with their current suitable habitats. With the subsequent temperature rising, their distribution centers shifted towards the northeast (high-latitude) regions, which could validate the hypothesis that the Hengduan Mountains were refuges for these species during the glacial period. In the future, there will be more potential suitable habitats for these two species in the QTP. This study elucidates the ecological factors affecting the current distribution of these grass caterpillars, provides an important reference for designating the prevention and control areas for Gm and Gq, and helps protect the alpine meadow ecosystem in the region.

Remote Sensing Mapping and Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land Use and Cover Change in the Helong Region of the Loess Plateau Region (1986–2020)

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is directly linked to the sustainability of ecosystems and the long-term well-being of human society. The Helong Region in the Loess Plateau has become one of the areas most severely affected by soil and water erosion in China due to its unique geographical location and ecological environment. The long-term construction of terraces and orchards is one of the important measures for this region to combat soil erosion. Despite the important role that terraces and orchards play in this region, current studies on their extraction and understanding remain limited. For this reason, this study designed a land use classification system, including terraces and orchards, to reveal the patterns of LUCC and the effectiveness of ecological restoration projects in the area. Based on this system, this study utilized the Random Forest classification algorithm to create an annual land use and cover (LUC) dataset for the Helong Region that covers eight periods from 1986 to 2020, with a spatial resolution of 30 m. The validation results showed that the maps achieved an average overall accuracy of 87.54% and an average Kappa coefficient of 76.94%. This demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed design and land coverage mapping method in the study area. This study found that, from 1986 to 2020, there was a continuous increase in forest and grassland areas, a significant reduction in cropland and bare land areas, and a notable rise in impervious surface areas. We emphasized that the continuous growth of terraces and orchards was an important LUCC trend in the region. This growth was primarily attributed to the conversion of grasslands, croplands, and forests. This transformation not only reduced soil erosion but also enhanced economic efficiency. The products and insights provided in this study help us better understand the complexities of ecological recovery and land management.

Spatiotemporal Eolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Taihang Mountains Based on MCCA Land Use Scenario Simulation

Ecosystem service value （ESV） is an important indicator related to regional ecological well-being, and understanding its evolution can provide references for regional ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. The Taihang Mountains, an important ecological security barrier in North China, were taken as an example. Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020, this study revealed the changes in land use and ecosystem service value in the Taihang Mountains and conducted multi-scenario simulations of ESV in 2035. Additionally, the land use transfer matrix, improved equivalent factor method, and mixed-cell cellular automata model were used. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land use types in the Taihang Mountains were cropland, forest land, and grassland. The area of cropland and grassland significantly decreased, whereas the area of forest land and construction land remained stable. The scale of land use transfer was 2.06×104 km2, with a high intensity of transfer from cropland and grassland to other areas, mainly guided by ecological construction. ② The ecosystem service functions in the Taihang Mountains were mainly dominated by regulation services, and the overall ESV showed a stable upward trend, increasing by 1.51×1010 RMB from 2000 to 2020. The spatial distribution of ESV was uneven, and the polarization phenomenon was evident, with high-value areas concentrated in the high-altitude areas in the northern and central-southern parts and low-value areas mostly located in the flat foothills and central plateaus on both sides. They were greatly influenced by human activities. ③ By 2035, compared with that in 2020, the ESV in the Taihang Mountains was projected to increase by 5.37 billion RMB in the natural growth scenario, 4.34 billion RMB in the urban development scenario, and 7.64 billion RMB in the ecological tourism scenario, mainly due to the conversion from cropland and grassland to forest land. The natural growth scenario showed a high intensity of spatial transformation of ESV, the urban development scenario experienced severe ESV loss in cropland, and the ecological tourism scenario showed a significant increase in ESV, which was an effective path for promoting green development in the Taihang Mountains. The research results can provide scientific references for the healthy management and sustainable development of the ecosystem in the Taihang Mountains.

Exploring environmental and climate features associated with yellow fever across space and time in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome.

The Atlantic Forest Biome (AFB) creates an ideal environment for the proliferation of vector mosquitoes, such as Haemagogus and Sabethes species, which transmit the Yellow Fever virus (YFV) to both human and non-human primates (NHP) (particularly Alouatta sp. and Callithrix sp.). From 2016 to 2020, 748 fatal cases of YF in humans and 1,763 in NHPs were reported in this biome, following several years free from the disease. This underscores the imminent risk posed by the YFV. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of YF cases in both NHPs and humans across the entire AFB during the outbreak period, using a generalized linear mixed regression model (GLMM) at the municipal level. Our analysis examined factors associated with the spread of YFV, including environmental characteristics, climate conditions, human vaccination coverage, and the presence of two additional YFV-affected NHP species. The occurrence of epizootics has been directly associated with natural forest formations and the presence of species within the Callithrix genus. Additionally, epizootics have been shown to be directly associated with human prevalence. Furthermore, human prevalence showed an inverse correlation with urban areas, temporary croplands, and savannah and grassland areas. Further analyses using Moran's Index to incorporate the neighborhoods of municipalities with cases in each studied host revealed additional variables, such as altitude, which showed a positive correlation. Additionally, the occurrence of the disease in both hosts exhibited a spatio-temporal distribution pattern. To effectively mitigate the spread of the virus, it is necessary to proactively expand vaccination coverage, refine NHP surveillance strategies, and enhance entomological surveillance in both natural and modified environments.

Changes in the Phylogenetic Structure of Alpine Grassland Plant Communities on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau with Long-Term Nitrogen Deposition.

Nitrogen (N) deposition rates have notably increased around the world, especially in high-altitude regions like the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). We conducted a six-year comprehensive experiment to simulate nitrogen deposition in an alpine grassland area near Qinghai Lake. Four levels of nitrogen depositions, i.e., 0 (CK), 8 kg N ha-1year-1 (N1), 40 kg N ha-1year-1 (N2), and 72 kg N ha-1year-1 (N3), with three replicates for each N treatment, were tested annually in early May and early July, with the meticulous collection of plant and soil samples during the peak growth period from 15 July to 15 August. We used the null model to evaluate the impact of environmental filtration and interspecific competition on the dynamics of the plant community was assessed based on the level of discrete species affinities within the plant community by constructing a phylogenetic tree. The results showed that the environmental filter was the predominant driver for the change of community's genealogical fabric. The N2 and N3 treatments increased the influence of soil factors on the change of plant community structure. Climatic factors played a crucial role on the change of plant community in the CK grassland area, while soil factors were dominant in the N1- and N3-treated grasslands.

Urban Planning Perspective on Food Resilience Assessment and Practice in the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area, China

This study aims to assess and analyze the urban food resilience of the Zhengzhou metropolitan area, proposing innovative assessment frameworks and methodologies. Utilizing a dual-level analysis approach that combines long-term planning impact analysis (2000–2020) with short-term resilience assessment (2018–2022), the study integrates public government data and Geographic Information System (GIS) data, employing spatial analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation techniques. Findings from 2000 to 2020 indicate that urban planning within the metropolitan area has significantly impacted the food system. Urbanization has led to reduced agricultural land, but improvements in infrastructure have enhanced the efficiency of the food supply chain. Woodland and grassland areas have remained relatively stable, providing an ecological buffer for the food system. Building on this, the short-term assessment from 2018 to 2022 reveals significant dynamic changes and a continuous improvement trend in food resilience, though there is still room for enhancement. Food supply chain management and emergency preparedness and management contributed the most to overall resilience. Notably, extreme events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the “7.20 Flood Disaster” prompted the adoption of innovative measures to enhance food resilience. The study develops a multidimensional theoretical framework and assessment system for urban food resilience, offering new perspectives and methods for understanding and enhancing urban food resilience. The results highlight the critical role of urban planning in enhancing food resilience, recommending the integration of the food system into comprehensive urban planning, strengthening regional collaboration, and enhancing public engagement. These findings provide an important basis for policymaking and practice aimed at improving the long-term adaptability and short-term recovery capabilities of urban food systems.

Spatio-temporal pattern change of LULC and its response to climate in the Loess Plateau, China

Exploring land use/cover (LULC) change is essential for the sustainable development of ecologically fragile areas. The main objective of this study was to clarify the characteristics and differences in the spatiotemporal changes of LULC on the Loess Plateau (LP) based on the transfer matrix and land use dynamics and to quantitatively describe the impact of natural factors on LULC using a geodetector. The results indicated that the overall LULC change in the LP was characterized by a decrease in the area of cropland, grassland, and bare land, and an increase in the area of woodland and built-up land. This trend shows a clear phase-change characteristic around 2000. LULC changes were primarily affected by human activities in the southeastern agricultural region. The project of returning farmland to forest and grassland had a great impact on LULC change in the central region. Vegetation was sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and the impact of LULC change was significantly higher than that in the humid region in the northwest arid region. NDVI, PRE, and TEM were determined to be the main contributors to LULC changes in the LP. These results provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of LP.

Assessment of the spatial-temporal impact of the Longhai Railway transportation corridor on land cover changes and landscape patterns

IntroductionTransportation corridors, as special economic corridors, have a greater impact on land cover and landscape pattern changes.MethodsTherefore, 10 buffer zones were established at 1 km intervals on both sides of the Longhai Railway as the centerline to trace the impact of the railroad corridor on the land use change and regional landscape pattern change of the cities along the line from 1985 to 2020.ResultThe results show that: (1) The land cover changes along the railroad corridor during the 35 years are mainly characterized by the conversion between cropland, grassland, and construction land. Compared with 1985, in 2020, the construction land increased by 161.96%, the grassland area decreased by 11.83%, and the cropland area decreased by 15.83%. (2) The fragmentation of land patches and vegetation coverage is negatively and positively correlated with the buffer zone distance, respectively. In the same year, the comprehensive land-use dynamic degree is smaller as it is further away from the railway. The nighttime light index in the buffer zone is significantly correlated with the land aggregation index and average patch area, and the closer to the railroad, the higher the land aggregation index of construction land. (3) In terms of zoning, the intensity of land cover and landscape pattern changes in the eastern section is higher than that in the western section, with a higher degree of land fragmentation and more agglomeration of construction land, and the transportation corridor has a greater impact on the change of integrated land use motives in this region. The results of the study can provide a scientific basis for optimising the spatial pattern of land and improving the ecological environment in the construction of cross-regional transport corridors.

Herpetofauna Diversity And Distribution Pattern Of Selected Ecological Sites Of Girei Local Government Area, Adamawa State – Nigeria

Background: This study aimed at understanding the diversity and distribution of herpetofauna resources with the specific objectives to: determine the relative abundance of herpetofauna resources; ascertain the distribution pattern of herpetofauna resources in relation to the ecological sites; and determine herpetofauna resource diversity in Girei Local Government Area of Adamawa State - Nigeria. Materials and Methods: The study area was divided into seven ecological sites: home area, open land area, farmland area, rocky area, grassland area, shrubby area and woodland area. Direct observation method involving an intensive search for the presence of herpetofauna resources was employed for the census. Cluster analysis was used to determine the pattern of distribution of herpetofauna resources while diversity indices were calculated using Simpson’s diversity index. Results: The results obtained showed that herpetofauna resources belonging to seven families were inventoried: Bufonidae, Ranidae, Agamidae, Lacertidae, Scincidae, Ophidae and Chamaeleonidae. The single –linkage cluster analysis showed only one cluster, indicating similar herpetofauna resources distribution in all the ecological sites. The Simpson’s diversity index of the herpetofauna resources was 0.2870. The results therefore suggest high diversity of herpetofauna resources, irrespective of ecological sites in the study area. It was concluded that there should be creation of herpetofauna refuge by encouraging people to establish hedgerows, fencerows, wood piles and preserve forest thickets between farmlands in the study area

Impacts of LULC changes on runoff from rivers through a coupled SWAT and BiLSTM model: A case study in Zhanghe River Basin, China

Changes in river runoff have a significant impact on the sustainable use of water resources in a watershed, and these changes are closely linked to variations in land use/land cover (LULC). This research explores an innovative approach in the Zhang River Basin (ZRB), China, by coupling a concept-based hydrological model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with a deep-learning model, the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network (Bi-LSTM), to improve the accuracy of river runoff simulations. By analyzing LULC changes in 2002, 2012, and 2022, this study developed three SWAT models and three coupled SWAT-BiLSTM models to quantitatively assess the impacts of these changes on river runoff through eight LULC scenarios. The findings revealed significant LULC changes from 2002 to 2022, with cropland and grassland areas decreasing while forest and urban land areas increased. The total area of grassland, forest, and cropland made up over 93 % of the basin, indicating active land type conversions. Calibration and validation results demonstrated that the SWAT-BiLSTM model outperformed the conventional SWAT model, yielding higher accuracy in runoff simulations. Specifically, the SWAT-BiLSTM model achieved R2 values of 0.89 and 0.90 during calibration and validation, compared to the SWAT model's R2 values of 0.76 and 0.79. Scenario analyses indicated that expansions in farmland, grassland, and urban areas were correlated with increased river runoff, while an expansion in forested areas led to reduced runoff. Notably, urban land changes had the most pronounced impact on runoff, emphasizing the need for careful runoff management and flood risk mitigation in urban planning. By combining SWAT and Bi-LSTM models, this study provides an innovative assessment of the impact of LULC changes on water resources in the ZRB. The results offer valuable insights for water resource management, LULC optimization, and flood risk management, highlighting the potential application of deep learning techniques in hydrological simulation. This research serves as a scientific basis for policy-making and sustainable land use planning in the ZRB and similar regions.

Drought risk assessment on arid region under different socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Loess Plateau, China

Quantitative understanding of drought risks on arid region is vital in drought risk mitigation and ecological restoration. However, no study has been conducted on the drought risk variance between different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and China’s dual carbon goals scenario on arid region. This study evaluates drought risks of Loess Plateau between the year of 1980–2100 based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 data sets and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction drought risk assessment framework. The average values of the drought risk index in four scenarios during the projection period (2030–2100) are 0.29 (±0.026) for the low carbon emission scenario, 0.257 (±0.019) for the China’s dual carbon target scenario, 0.232 (±0.057) for the medium carbon emission scenario, and 0.248 (±0.059) for the high carbon emission scenario, which are higher than the historical period (i.e. 1980: 0.210; 2020: 0.215). Accordingly, the Loess Plateau will have severe drought risks in the future. In the zone of increased drought risk indices on the Loess Plateau, the areas of woodland and croplands increased, whereas the area of grasslands increased in the zone of decreased drought risk indices. China’s dual carbon goals (i.e. SSP1-2.6) scenario has the smallest degree of variability in drought risk, which is the most reliable pathway of across the four scenarios. We emphasize the potential of spatial planning based on regional characteristics and creating ecological buffer zones for endemic biome habitats to address the uncertainty of drought risk in arid and semi-arid regions like the Loess Plateau.

Future climate risks to world cultural heritage sites in Spain: A systematic analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways

Rapidly advancing anthropogenic climate change is a severe threat to cultural heritage worldwide. World cultural heritage sites (WCHS) are recognized by UNESCO as having outstanding international importance. Identifying and quantifying the impacts of climate change on the WCHS is therefore crucial for the development of long-term protection policies. Spain, the subject of the present study, is one of the most important world heritage countries in terms of the number of sites and is highly vulnerable to climate change under global scenarios.This study identified the main climate risks faced by Spain's WCHS on the basis of future climate data from four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios under the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the most up-to-date global climate model available. Risks include sea level rise and coastal flooding, fire risk and drought risk, hydrodynamic scouring and corrosion, and biodegradation. Some WCHS are located in regions that are projected to experience surface warming exceeding the global average by 2100 under the SSP5--8.5 scenario, with a doubling of extreme climate risk (a gradient from scenarios SSP1--2.6, SSP2--4.5, SSP3--7.0 to SSP5--8.5). Under this shared socioeconomic pathway, three Spanish WCHS are at risk of being submerged by seawater by 2100. On the basis of historical data, we identified greater potential fire risk in regions where Spain's WCHS is located than in other regions in Europe, with eight WCHS experiencing weather-induced fire hazards exceeding 95 %. Considering the combination of LUC types within the Spanish WCHS, we identified two WCHS that exemplify this risk: 1) the archaeological site of Atapuerca, which is primarily occupied by broad-leaved forest, and 2) the Caliphate city of Medina Azahara, which is surrounded by natural grasslands, emphasizing the need for fire prevention in woodland and grassland areas. Furthermore, we quantified the hydrodynamic scouring risk, corrosion and biodegradation risk, and drought risk in the entire region where Spain's WCHS are located from 2081 to 2100 and clustered them on the basis of risk characteristics. We found that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the overall pattern of climate risk faced by Spain's WCHS did not change significantly from the present, but there were clear changes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We also identified that Spain's WCHS listings are at greater risk from different climate risks. This study predicts the potential impact of climate change on Spain's WCHS, emphasizing the crucial role of “carbon neutrality” in reducing various climate risks to Spain's WCHS and providing guidance for the development of future long-term protection policies.

Spatio-temporal variations and multi-scenario simulation of landscape ecological risk in the drylands of the Yellow River Basin.

Over the past decades, the drylands of the Yellow River Basin (YRBD) have undergone profound changes in landscape patterns and ecological dynamics, significantly impacting regional sustainable development. To assess the spatio-temporal variations of ecological risk in the YRBD and provide guidance for sustainable regional development, we constructed a coupled Land Use-Landscape Ecological Risk Model-Geographical Detector-PLUS framework for the assessment, analysis, and simulation of dryland landscape ecological risk (LER). The main findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the area of built-up land, forest, grassland, and water in the YRBD increased, while the area of unused land and cropland decreased. (2) LER exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, dominated by Sub-low and Low risks. High risk areas were primarily located in the western Inner Mongolia Plateau, whereas Low risk areas were prevalent in the Loess Plateau, with an overall decline in risk levels over the 20years. (3) Water resources, ecological status, and human activities are the main driving factors affecting LER, with the impact of human activities becoming increasingly significant over the past 20years. (4) Under three development scenarios in 2030, the LER is projected to further decrease, although the impact of these scenarios varies across different research sub-regions. Notably, the Ecological Priority Scenario emerges as more effective in mitigating regional LER. (5) Developing precise land use policies tailored to regional characteristics, continuously implementing ecological restoration projects, strengthening water resource management, and enhancing monitoring capabilities are effective ways to reduce LER in the YRBD. This study systematically quantified the impact of different development scenarios on LER in the YRBD, revealing its spatio-temporal characteristics, and emphasized the importance of planning guidance, ecological restoration, and risk monitoring to align regional development with ecological protection. The findings provide scientific evidence for ecological protection and sustainable development in the YRBD and other drylands, offering valuable insights for global dryland ecological risk management.

Spatial pattern and landscape change prediction of blowouts in sandy grassland

Blowouts are a common type of wind-eroded landform found in sandy and desertified areas. They also represent a major degradative surface process affecting grassland ecosystems. Blowouts exacerbate changes in surface morphology through their effects on other surface phenomena including vegetation. In this paper, Xilingol League sandy grassland blowouts are taken as the research object, and the U.S. Keyhole satellite data and China’s Gaofen-1 satellite data are used as the data source, and the blowouts are extracted based on the 3 S technology for a total of six periods of high-resolution remote sensing image data in the study area from 1962 to 2023. The Landscape Pattern Index method and Fuzzy Land Use Simulation (FLUS) modelling applied to changes over the last six decades provided spatial evolution parameters for predicting future blowout distributions. Results showed that blowouts affecting the Xilingol grassland area increased by 16.81% over the past 60 years. The patch density (PD) increased by 0.9 per hectare. The mean proximity index (PROX_MN) and mean Euclidean nearest neighbour distance (ENN_MN) showed a tendency to decrease and then increase indicating initial expansion and then merging of adjacent blowouts to create the present landscape. The FLUS model used ten factors to predict changes in blowout distributions from 2023 to 2033. Factors included digital elevation model (DEM), slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, population density, real GDP, distance to water, and distance to impervious surfaces. It was found that grassland area decreased by 6217.12 hm2 and blowout area decreased by 102.91 hm2. Results of this study can expand understanding of blowout morphodynamics in ecologically sensitive areas.