Wildfire Area Research Articles

Introducing Spatially Distributed Fire Danger from Earth Observations (FDEO) Using Satellite-Based Data in the Contiguous United States

Wildfire danger assessment is essential for operational allocation of fire management resources; with longer lead prediction, the more efficiently can resources be allocated regionally. Traditional studies focus on meteorological forecasts and fire danger index models (e.g., National Fire Danger Rating System—NFDRS) for predicting fire danger. Meteorological forecasts, however, lose accuracy beyond ~10 days; as such, there is no quantifiable method for predicting fire danger beyond 10 days. While some recent studies have statistically related hydrologic parameters and past wildfire area burned or occurrence to fire, no study has used these parameters to develop a monthly spatially distributed predictive model in the contiguous United States. Thus, the objective of this study is to introduce Fire Danger from Earth Observations (FDEO), which uses satellite data over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to enable two-month lead time prediction of wildfire danger, a sufficient lead time for planning purposes and relocating resources. In this study, we use satellite observations of land cover type, vapor pressure deficit, surface soil moisture, and the enhanced vegetation index, together with the United States Forest Service (USFS) verified and validated fire database (FPA) to develop spatially gridded probabilistic predictions of fire danger, defined as expected area burned as a deviation from “normal”. The results show that the model predicts spatial patterns of fire danger with 52% overall accuracy over the 2004–2013 record, and up to 75% overall accuracy during the fire season. Overall accuracy is defined as number of pixels with correctly predicted fire probability classes divided by the total number of the studied pixels. This overall accuracy is the first quantified result of two-month lead prediction of fire danger and demonstrates the potential utility of using diverse observational data sets for use in operational fire management resource allocation in the CONUS.

Impact of wildfire on particulate matter in the southeastern United States in November 2016

In November 2016, a large area of wildfire occurred in the southeastern United States, concomitant with the occurrence of severe drought during the same period. Whereas the previous studies on biomass burning over this region mainly focused on the prescribed fire, this study investigated the impact of wildfire using the two-way-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model. Two episodic wildfire burning events (November 6 to 9 and November 13 to 16, 2016) were selected, and the mean contribution to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the southeastern United States from wildfires reached 9.6 to 42.5 μg m−3 and 10.9 to 26.1 μg m−3, with mean relative contributions of 41% and 49%, respectively, during these two events. The effect of wildfire propagates along the path of the smoke plume, which is determined by the wind speed and direction. For instance, during the first event, the dominant low-altitude wind vector displayed an anticyclonic-type flow with low wind speed, resulting in relatively localized influence and high intensity. In contrast, during the second event, relatively fast eastward wind, particularly over the latter part of the event, strengthened the diffusion and affected larger areas in comparison with the first event. Moreover, differently from the previous studies, this study took a further step to reveal the mechanism of the aerosol direct effect on the deterioration of air quality during wildfire, mainly through the modulation of reduction in surface downward shortwave radiation, planetary boundary layer height and wind speed, subsequently, facilitating pollution accumulation. Quantification analysis showed an average of 10% to 14% extra enhancement of PM2.5 during the November 6 to 8 episode. Considering that more frequent drought is projected to occur in the southeastern United States, wildfire may play an even more important role in modulating the air quality in this region.

Fewer butterflies and a different composition of bees, wasps and hoverflies on recently burned compared to unburned clear-cuts, regardless of burn severity

Insect pollinators are declining, which often is related to intensified agriculture. Less focus has been on the effect of forestry. In many boreal forests, clear-cutting has replaced fire as the main disturbance agent, which has been negative for many species. Therefore, prescribed burning is performed, often on clear-cuts. Knowledge on the effect of fire on pollinators is, however, scarce. We sampled pollinators and their resources in 22 burned and 15 unburned clear-cuts in and around a large wildfire area in Sweden, three years after fire. We compared potential pollinator resources as well as richness, abundance and community composition of four groups of pollinators: bees (totaling 583 individuals), wasps (1226), hoverflies (416), and butterflies (7 2 8) between burned and unburned clear-cuts. Moreover, we analyzed the effect of burn severity (depth of remaining humus). We show that the diversity and cover of potential nectar/pollen plants were clearly lower in burned clear-cuts, while potential nesting resources were higher. Butterfly richness was 67% lower and abundance 89% lower in burned clear-cuts. Differences in richness and abundance were smaller for bees, wasps, and hoverflies, but their species composition differed. We found no effect of burn severity on pollinators or their resources. We conclude that burned clear-cuts have fewer pollinators three years after fire, which is driven by a loss of butterflies. However, changes in species composition from clear-cut fires could complement the fauna of unburned sites when mixed at landscape level. Future studies should follow vegetation and pollinator communities over longer time periods following clear-cut burning.

Drivers of long-distance spotting during wildfires in south-eastern Australia

We analysed the influence of wildfire area, topography, fuel, surface weather and upper-level weather conditions on long-distance spotting during wildfires. The analysis was based on a large dataset of 338 observations, from aircraft-acquired optical line scans, of spotting wildfires in south-east Australia between 2002 and 2018. Source fire area (a measure of fire activity) was the most important predictor of maximum spotting distance and the number of long-distance spot fires produced (i.e. >500m from a source fire). Weather (surface and upper-level), vegetation and topographic variables had important secondary effects. Spotting distance and number of long-distance spot fires increased strongly with increasing source fire area, particularly under strong winds and in areas containing dense forest and steep slopes. General vegetation descriptors better predicted spotting compared with bark hazard and presence variables, suggesting systems that measure and map bark spotting potential need improvement. The results from this study have important implications for the development of predictive spotting and wildfire behaviour models.

The effects of wildfire severity and pyrodiversity on bat occupancy and diversity in fire-suppressed forests

Wildfire is an important ecological process that influences species’ occurrence and biodiversity generally. Its effect on bats is understudied, creating challenges for habitat management and species conservation as threats to the taxa worsen globally and within fire-prone ecosystems. We conducted acoustic surveys of wildfire areas during 2014–2017 in conifer forests of California’s Sierra Nevada Mountains. We tested effects of burn severity and its variation, or pyrodiversity, on occupancy and diversity for the 17-species bat community while accounting for imperfect detection. Occupancy rates increased with severity for at least 6 species and with pyrodiversity for at least 3. Two other species responded negatively to pyrodiversity. Individual species models predicted maximum occupancy rates across burn severity levels but only one species occurred most often in undisturbed areas. Species richness increased from approximately 8 species in unburned forests to 11 in pyrodiverse areas with moderate- to high-severity. Greater accessibility of foraging habitats, as well as increased habitat heterogeneity may explain positive responses to wildfire. Many bat species appear well adapted to wildfire, while a century of fire suppression and forest densification likely reduced habitat quality for the community generally. Relative to other taxa, bats may be somewhat resilient to increases in fire severity and size; trends which are expected to continue with accelerating climate change.

О мнимой и реальной экономической эффективности борьбы с лесными пожарами в Сибири

<span>Дана критическая оценка существующего подхода к экономической оценке последствий лесных пожаров, в результате которого сильно недооцениваются риски и ущерб для здоровья и жизни людей. Применение этого подхода при организации тушения лесных пожаров в Сибири летом 2019 г. привело к отказу от тушения огня на большой территории так называемых зон контроля. Исходя из (а) приоритетов угроз для здоровья и жизни населения (из них главную опасность представляет не огонь, а содержащий вредные и токсичные вещества дым), (б) принятых ВОЗ критериев эффективности мер спасения жизни, автор доказывает, что затраты на тушение лесных пожаров являются эффективными с социально-экономической точки зрения; а затраты, связанные с локализацией очагов лесных пожаров на доступных участках зон контроля</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceBefore"> </span><span>–</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceAfter"> </span><span>высокоэффективными. Обосновано, что проблема лесных пожаров по своей значимости относится к категории задач обеспечения национальной безопасности, и ее решение требует комплексного подхода, отрицающего используемый до сих пор сугубо фискальный способ оценки эффективности затрат на меры пожаротушения.</span>

Evaluation of hydrological and erosive effects at the basin scale in relation to the severity of forest fires

This study aimed to assess the hydrological and erosive effects of different levels of the fire severity in the drainage basin of the Trionto River (Calabria, southern Italy), which was partially burned by intense fires during the summer 2017. The analysis focused on the identification of wildfire areas using a supervised classification of remote sensing images with the minimum distance algorithm. The level of severity of each fire was then discriminated based on a procedure proposed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and adapted to the study area. To evaluate how wildfire occurrence affects the hydrological behaviour at the basin scale, the SCS-Curve Number model was used to document pre- and post-fire conditions in relation with the level of fire severity. Finally, the influence on erosion was analysed for analogous conditions at the basin scale using the RUSLE equation. The effects on hydrological balance and soil loss were evaluated by comparing the pre-fire value with three different post-fire scenarios: (a) different levels of severity on the surface covered by the fire (real case); (b) maximum level of severity on the surface covered by the fire; (c) total loss of the canopy and formation of a hydrophobic layer on the surface soil. The results confirmed that the level of severity of the forest fires, combined with climatic factors, morphological conditions, and the pedological characteristics of the basin, significantly influence changes to the hydrology and rates of erosion. Moreover, these impacts proved to be mainly dependent on the consequent, often notable, heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of burned areas with different severity.

Near zero mortality in juvenile Pinus hartwegii Lindl. after a prescribed burn and comparison with mortality after a wildfire

Abstract: Fire is considered a relevant ecological factor, however, human alterations of fire regime facilitate more destructive wildfires. The aims of this work were to model probability of tree mortality and to identify the factors associated with leader shoot growth in a prescribed burn area and in a nearby wildfire area in a juvenile Pinus hartwegii Lindl. stand in central Mexico. A prescribed burn was carried out in 10-ha stand in March 2012, and compared with a close area affected by a wildfire occurred one week later, as well as with a nearby unburned area taken as control. A logistic model was used to estimate the probability of mortality, and a linear regression model was employed to investigate factors related to leader shoot growth. No tree mortality was recorded in the unburned control. In contrast, mortality was 6% in the prescribed burn and 66.9% in the wildfire area. The probability of mortality was influenced by stem char height (positively, p<0.0001), tree height (negatively, p=0.0443), and diameter at breast height (negatively, p<0.0001). The variables that had more influence on leader shoot growth were stem char height (negatively, p<0.0001) and tree height (positively, p<0.0001). This work supports evidence of the feasibility of using low intensity prescribed burns in this ecosystem with minimum effects on young tree mortality.

Irregular variability of spatiotemporal distributions of wildfires and emissions of harmful trace gases in Europe based on satellite monitoring data

Based on the results of satellite monitoring, the anomalies of spatiotemporal distributions of wildfire areas, as well as the volumes of caused emissions of carbon-containing trace gases (CO, CO2) and aerosols (PM2.5), for the territory of European Russia and Eastern and Central Europe from 2005 to 2018 are detected. It is found that, for 2005-2013, the annual areas of wildfires shrank for the territory of European Russia by almost a factor of 10, and the volumes of emissions of harmful gas traces into the atmosphere decreased by a factor of 7. However, starting from 2014, they were recorded to increase. The seasonal (spring and summer) maxima occurred in the distributions of the burned areas and the emission volumes in the time period under study. An anomalously large number of fire sources was recorded on the territory of Ukraine in 2014-2018 (70% of all fires in Eastern and Central Europe) where the specific density of fire sources, their relative areas, and the relative volumes of emissions increased by a factor of 3-5.7 compared to 2010-2013 and grew by a factor of 5-7.5 in August 2014-2018 compared to other territories of Eastern, Central Europe, and European Russia.

Monitoring wildfire using high-resolution compact X-band dual-polarization radar: A case study in southern China

Weather radar has demonstrated the ability to monitor wildfires and associated smoke plumes. However, the long-range, S-band operational radar network has severe limitations in providing high-resolution observations in the lower atmosphere due to the earth curvature. This paper presents an innovative technique of using shorter-range, low-power, fast scanning X-band radar for monitoring wildfires. Sample observations from wildfire events in southern China show that the polarimetric radar correlation coefficient of wildfire echoes varies from 0.55 to 0.75, with an average value of 0.61; the differential reflectivity varies from 2.28 to 5.08 dB with an average value of 3.99 dB; the differential propagation phase varies from 40.27° to 69.27°, with an average value of 56.66°; and all observables exhibit subtle changes at different scanning elevation angles. In addition, changes in echo intensity observed by higher elevation scans lag behind those observed by lower elevation scans, and the change of wildfire area lags behind the variation of echo intensity. Given the emerging interest in deploying such compact, cheaper X-band systems for urban hydrometeorological applications, it is expected that these radars, customized with flexible scan strategy, will provide new opportunities and advantages in wildfire detection and mitigation.

Irregular Variability of Spatiotemporal Distributions of Wildfires and Emissions of Harmful Trace Gases in Europe Based on Satellite Monitoring Data

Based on the results of satellite monitoring, the anomalies of spatiotemporal distributions of wildfire areas, as well as the volumes of caused emissions of carbon-containing trace gases (CO, CO2) and aerosols (PM2.5), for the territory of European Russia and Eastern and Central Europe from 2005 to 2018 are detected. It is found that, for 2005–2013, the annual areas of wildfires shrank for the territory of European Russia by almost a factor of 10, and the volumes of emissions of harmful gas traces into the atmosphere decreased by a factor of 7. However, starting from 2014, they were recorded to increase. The seasonal (spring and summer) maxima occurred in the distributions of the burned areas and the emission volumes in the time period under study. An anomalously large number of fire sources was recorded on the territory of Ukraine in 2014–2018 (70% of all fires in Eastern and Central Europe) where the specific density of fire sources, their relative areas, and the relative volumes of emissions increased by a factor of 3–5.7 compared to 2010–2013 and grew by a factor of 5–7.5 in August 2014–2018 compared to other territories of Eastern, Central Europe, and European Russia.

Wildfire alters belowground and surface wood decomposition on two national forests in Montana, USA

Wildfires can drastically alter belowground processes such as organic matter (OM) decomposition. We used wood stakes of two different tree species, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.), placed at three soil locations (soil surface, forest floor–mineral soil interface, mineral soil), as an index of the long-term (5-year) effects of wildfire on OM decomposition in two forest stands after high-severity wildfire and in an unburned control. Wood stake mass loss was generally higher for aspen, especially in the mineral soil of burned plots, than in control plots after 5 years. Soil surface and interface (unburned stands only) stakes showed few significant differences for either species on the Bitterroot National Forest. On the Gallatin National Forest, both pine and aspen stakes had significantly greater mass loss at the interface (unburned stand) at the end of 5 years, and also decayed significantly faster at the 10–20-cm depth in the wildfire area. Using wood stakes as an index of soil microsite properties in burned and unburned plots, we show that fire increased both OM decomposition and mineral soil microsite variability. These results strengthen our understanding of soil-surface and belowground ecosystem responses to wildfire.

Causal, temporal and spatial statistics of wildfires in areas of planted forests in Brazil

Wildfires are the result of a complex interaction between climate, vegetation, topography and socioeconomic factors (BEDIA et al., 2012). The present study aims at analyzing how the relations between the meteorological and physical variables of the terrain correlate with the parameters of occurrence of wildfires in areas of planted forests in Brazil. The analysis of the wildfire regime in the study area was divided into three important aspects: temporal, spatial and causal. There are two periods of wildfire occurrence in the studied area, and for the first season, subzone 1 is from December to March; for the subzone 2 is from January to March; and, for subzone 3, is in the months of January and February. The second season, for all subzones, is between the months of August and October. Most climatic variables, isolated, do not present a direct relation with the occurrence of wildfires for both subzones, excepting some variables in some subzones. Considering both subzones, approximately 80% of the fires analyzed correspond to areas smaller than 4 ha.

Determination of the Energy Properties of Wildfires in Siberia by Remote Sensing

As applied to the conditions of wildfires in Siberia, remote sensing is adapted to record the radiation power from the active fire zone in the range of 3.929–3.989 μm (Terra/MODIS data). The limits of variation of the detected values ​​of heat radiation are evaluated. Sporadic peaks that exceed the mean value of heat radiation in the fire field by a value of 2.5σ were correlated with high-intensity fires, including crown fires. The probability of remote fire detection in crown stage was no less than 65%. The quantitative dependence of the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) on the area of ​​the active zone was determined using a subpixel analysis. The fraction of forest fires in Siberia with areas of extreme heat radiation is shown to be 5.5 ± 1.2% of the total wildfires. The total area of ​​high-intensity wildfires including crown fires is at least 8.5% of the average annual wildfire area and reaches values ​​of 15–25% during extreme fire seasons.

Satellite Monitoring of Burnt-out Areas and Emissions of Harmful Contaminants Due to Forest and Other Wildfires in Russia

In this paper we summarize the results of the satellite monitoring of various types of wildfires, as well as emissions of carbon-containing the CO and CO2 gases and the fine PM2.5 aerosol into the atmosphere due to wildfires, throughout the Russian Federation and several of its regions in 2005–2017. The methodology and features of the satellite system used for the monitoring are described. An analysis of the overall estimations of the total wildfire areas, areas of burnt-out forests, as well as the volumes of harmful contaminant emissions due to them, is given. It is shown that between 2005 and 2017 the total areas of all types of wildfires in Russia, including forest fires, more than halved due to the measures taken on urgent fire detection and well-timed actions to extinguish them. The burnt-out areas reached a peak of 234 700 km2 in 2006 were minimal (74 000 km2) in 2013. The largest areas of burnt-out forest were in the Siberian Federal District. Fires spread to a maximum of 53 600 km2 in this region in 2012, while the total burnt-out areas covered 65 000 km2.

Beyond the 1984 Perspective: Narrow Focus on Modern Wildfire Trends Underestimates Future Risks to Water Security

AbstractThe western United States remains well below historical wildfire activity, yet misconceptions abound in the public and news media that the area burning by wildfire each year in the American West is unprecedented. We submit that short‐term records of wildfire and a disproportionate focus on recent fire trends within high‐profile science stoke these misconceptions. Furthermore, we highlight serious risks to long‐term water security (encompassing water supply, storage, and quality) that have only recently been recognized and are underestimated as the result of skewed perspectives of wildfire. Compiling several data sets, we illustrate a comprehensive history of western wildfire, demonstrate that the majority of western settlement occurred during an artificially and anomalously low period of wildfire in the twentieth century, and discuss the troubling implications the misalignment of wildfire activity and human development may have for the long‐term projections of water security. A crucial first step toward realigning public perspectives will require scientists and journalists to present recent increases in wildfire area within the context and scale of longer‐term trends. Second, proper housing development and resource management will require an appreciation for the differing western ecosystems and the flexibility to adopt varied approaches. These actions are critical for realigning public understanding of both the direct and indirect risks associated with wildfire and ensuring adequate and appropriate measures are taken as we navigate a future of increasing fire in the West.

Evaluation of Spectral Indices for Assessing Fire Severity in Australian Temperate Forests

Spectral indices derived from optical remote sensing data have been widely used for fire-severity classification in forests from local to global scales. However, comparative analyses of multiple indices across diverse forest types are few. This represents an information gap for fire management agencies in areas like temperate south-eastern Australia, which is characterised by a diversity of natural forests that vary in structure, and in the fire-regeneration strategies of the dominant trees. We evaluate 10 spectral indices across eight areas burnt by wildfires in 1998, 2006, 2007, and 2009 in south-eastern Australia. These wildfire areas encompass 13 forest types, which represent 86% of the 7.9M ha region’s forest area. Forest types were aggregated into six forest groups based on their fire-regeneration strategies (seeders, resprouters) and structure (tree height and canopy cover). Index performance was evaluated for each forest type and forest group by examining its sensitivity to four fire-severity classes (unburnt, low, moderate, high) using three independent methods (anova, separability, and optimality). For the best-performing indices, we calculated index-specific thresholds (by forest types and groups) to separate between the four severity classes, and evaluated the accuracy of fire-severity classification on independent samples. Our results indicated that the best-performing indices of fire severity varied with forest type and group. Overall accuracy for the best-performing indices ranged from 0.50 to 0.78, and kappa values ranged from 0.33 (fair agreement) to 0.77 (substantial agreement), depending on the forest group and index. Fire severity in resprouter open forests and woodlands was most accurately mapped using the delta Normalised Burnt ratio (dNBR). In contrast, dNDVI (delta Normalised difference vegetation index) performed best for open forests with mixed fire responses (resprouters and seeders), and dNDWI (delta Normalised difference water index) was the most accurate for obligate seeder closed forests. Our analysis highlighted the low sensitivity of all indices to fire impacts in Rainforest. We conclude that the optimal spectral index for quantifying fire severity varies with forest type, but that there is scope to group forests by structure and fire-regeneration strategy to simplify fire-severity classification in heterogeneous forest landscapes.

POSTFIRE CONDITION AND RENEWAL OF FOREST PHYTOCENOSES ON THE TERRITORY OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

Results of long-term stationary research on influence of the pyrogenic factor on the efficiency and the postfire condition of forest phytocenoses of Belarus are presented. It has been found out that the size of the postfire falling off of trees and their radial gain in plantations of the main forest forming breeds are determined by the type and intensity of a fire, the forest and taxation characteristics of forest stands as well as biological features of tree species. Dependence of the size of the postfire falling off by the quantity of trees and a stock in pine, spruce, birch and black alder plantations on their average diameter and average height of deposit on trunks are revealed at the ground fires, depths of burn-out of organic horizons of the soil and damage rate of root systems of trees – at the soil fires. The description of scales for identification of damage rate in plantations of the main forest forming breeds from fires and their fire resistance is given. The reforestation methods in the burnt-out places in various forest vegetation conditions which provide formation of biologically steady and highly productive plantations of economic valuable tree species are presented. There is a card of forest fire division into districts of the territory of Belarus on the basis of which types and volumes of actions for fire-prevention arrangement of the forest fund of the legal entities which conduct forestry for the purpose of minimization of the area of wildfires and their consequences are differentiated.

Decreasing fire season precipitation increased recent western US forest wildfire activity

Western United States wildfire increases have been generally attributed to warming temperatures, either through effects on winter snowpack or summer evaporation. However, near-surface air temperature and evaporative demand are strongly influenced by moisture availability and these interactions and their role in regulating fire activity have never been fully explored. Here we show that previously unnoted declines in summer precipitation from 1979 to 2016 across 31-45% of the forested areas in the western United States are strongly associated with burned area variations. The number of wetting rain days (WRD; days with precipitation ≥2.54 mm) during the fire season partially regulated the temperature and subsequent vapor pressure deficit (VPD) previously implicated as a primary driver of annual wildfire area burned. We use path analysis to decompose the relative influence of declining snowpack, rising temperatures, and declining precipitation on observed fire activity increases. After accounting for interactions, the net effect of WRD anomalies on wildfire area burned was more than 2.5 times greater than the net effect of VPD, and both the WRD and VPD effects were substantially greater than the influence of winter snowpack. These results suggest that precipitation during the fire season exerts the strongest control on burned area either directly through its wetting effects or indirectly through feedbacks to VPD. If these trends persist, decreases in summer precipitation and the associated summertime aridity increases would lead to more burned area across the western United States with far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic impacts.

Climate Change and Future Wildfire in the Western United States: An Ecological Approach to Nonstationarity

AbstractWe developed ecologically based climate‐fire projections for the western United States. Using a finer ecological classification and fire‐relevant climate predictors, we created statistical models linking climate and wildfire area burned for ecosections, which are geographic delineations based on biophysical variables. The results indicate a gradient from purely fuel‐limited (antecedent positive water balance anomalies or negative energy balance anomalies) to purely flammability‐limited (negative water balance anomalies or positive energy balance anomalies) fire regimes across ecosections. Although there are other influences (such as human ignitions and management) on fire occurrence and area burned, seasonal climate significantly explains interannual fire area burned. Differences in the role of climate across ecosections are not random, and the relative dominance of climate predictors allows objective classification of ecosection climate‐fire relationships. Expected future trends in area burned range from massive increases, primarily in flammability limited systems near the middle of the water balance deficit distribution, to substantial decreases, in fuel‐limited nonforested systems. We predict increasing area burned in most flammability‐limited systems but predict decreasing area burned in primarily fuel‐limited systems with a flammability‐limited (“hybrid”) component. Compared to 2030–2059 (2040s), projected area burned for 2070–2099 (2080s) increases much more in the flammability and flammability‐dominated hybrid systems than those with equal control and continues to decrease in fuel‐limited hybrid systems. Exceedance probabilities for historical 95th percentile fire years are larger in exclusively flammability‐limited ecosections than in those with fuel controls. Filtering the projected results using a fire‐rotation constraint minimizes overprojection due to static vegetation assumptions, making projections more conservative.