Leak Area Research Articles

Pipeline Leak Identification and Prediction of Urban Water Supply Network System with Deep Learning Artificial Neural Network

Pipeline leakage, which leads to water wastage, financial losses, and contamination, is a significant challenge in urban water supply networks. Leak detection and prediction is urgent to secure the safety of the water supply system. Relaying on deep learning artificial neural networks and a specific optimization algorithm, an intelligential detection approach in identifying the pipeline leaks is proposed. A hydraulic model is initially constructed on the simplified Net2 benchmark pipe network. The District Metering Area (DMA) algorithm and the Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm are integrated as the DMA-CS algorithm, which is employed for the hydraulic model optimization. Attributing to the suspected leak area identification and the exact leak location, the DMA-CS algorithm possess higher accuracy for pipeline leakage (97.43%) than that of the DMA algorithm (92.67%). The identification pattern of leakage nodes is correlated to the maximum number of leakage points set with the participation of the DMA-CS algorithm, which provide a more accurate pathway for identifying and predicting the specific pipeline leaks.

Anastomotic Leak and its Implications: A Multicenter Analysis of “Type C” Esophageal Atresia / Tracheo-esophageal fistula (EA/TEF)

PurposeRepair of type C esophageal atresia with tracheo-esophageal fistula (EA/TEF) may be complicated by esophageal anastomotic leak. Risk factors associated with leak and the impact of leak on inpatient outcomes remains uncertain. Our objectives are to estimate the associations between clinical factors and esophageal anastomotic leak and quantify the association of leak with length of stay (LOS) in infants who underwent repair of type C EA/TEF. MethodsUsing the Children’s Hospitals Neonatal Database (CHND), we identified infants with type C EA/TEF from 2021-2023. The main outcomes were anastomotic leak and LOS. Multivariable associations between patient and clinical factors and these outcomes were quantified using logistic regression (leak) and Cox proportional hazards modelling (LOS). ResultsAmong 365 infants at 36 centers, anastomotic leak occurred in 55 (15.1%) infants, and thoracoscopic approach, lower birthweight, small for gestational age less than 10th percentile, male sex, staged repair, ventricular septal defect, and center were independently associated with leak (area under receiver operating curve = 0.853). Also, LOS was increased in infants with leak compared to those without [hazard ratio (HR): 0.655, 95% CI = 0.431 – 0.996, p=0.044], independent of birth weight, surgical approach, male sex, or VSD. The adjusted LOS demonstrated a 11-fold inter-center variation (p=0.034). ConclusionsSeveral clinical and operative factors are associated with esophageal anastomotic leak in infants after type C EA/TEF repair. Leak significantly prolongs LOS. The magnitude of inter-center variability in LOS also suggests that identifying best practices could aid in improving patient care in this patient population. Type of StudyRetrospective Comparative Study Level of EvidenceIII

Detection of Leak Areas in Vineyard Irrigation Systems Using UAV-Based Data

Water is essential for maintaining plant health and optimal growth in agriculture. While some crops depend on irrigation, others can rely on rainfed water, depending on regional climatic conditions. This is exemplified by grapevines, which have specific water level requirements, and irrigation systems are needed. However, these systems can be susceptible to damage or leaks, which are not always easy to detect, requiring meticulous and time-consuming inspection. This study presents a methodology for identifying potential damage or leaks in vineyard irrigation systems using RGB and thermal infrared (TIR) imagery acquired by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The RGB imagery was used to distinguish between grapevine and non-grapevine pixels, enabling the division of TIR data into three raster products: temperature from grapevines, from non-grapevine areas, and from the entire evaluated vineyard plot. By analyzing the mean temperature values from equally spaced row sections, different threshold values were calculated to estimate and map potential leaks. These thresholds included the lower quintile value, the mean temperature minus the standard deviation (Tmean−σ), and the mean temperature minus two times the standard deviation (Tmean−2σ). The lower quintile threshold showed the best performance in identifying known leak areas and highlighting the closest rows that need inspection in the field. This approach presents a promising solution for inspecting vineyard irrigation systems. By using UAVs, larger areas can be covered on-demand, improving the efficiency and scope of the inspection process. This not only reduces water wastage in viticulture and eases grapevine water stress but also optimizes viticulture practices.

Fluorescence-guided thoracoscopic surgery for postoperative chylothorax: A technical note with video vignette

TechniqueThe surgical management for high-output postoperative chylothorax typically necessitates ligation of the thoracic duct (TD) above the leak site and/or sealing the leak with a clip. However, pinpointing these structures during subsequent surgeries can be challenging due to their variable course and the presence of traumatized tissues surrounding the leak area. In response to this, we have developed a novel, fluorescence-guided technique that significantly enhances intraoperative identification of the leak point and the TD. This method was applied in the case of a 52-year-old man suffering from refractory chylothorax following a previous lung cancer surgery. This study documents the surgical procedure and includes a video vignette for a comprehensive understanding. ResultsA bilateral inguinal lymph node injection of saline (10 mL), guided by ultrasound and containing 2.5 mg/mL indocyanine green (ICG), was administered 20 min prior to surgery. During thoracoscopic exploration, the leak point was precisely pinpointed in the right paratracheal area by transitioning from bright light to fluorescent mode. The TD was clearly identified, and upon ligation, there was no further leakage of fluorescent lymph, indicating a successful closure of the lymphatic structure. The surgery proceeded uneventfully, and the patient was able to resume oral intake on the third postoperative day. There was no evidence of recurring symptoms, leading to his discharge. ConclusionThe intralymphatic injection of ICG offers a rapid visualization of the TD's anatomy and can effectively pinpoint the leak point, even amidst traumatized tissues. Moreover, it provides prompt feedback on the efficacy of ligation.

Joint 3D coordinate and wave-speed estimation with nonuniform planar array: Multi-leak localization in gas pipe buried in sandy soil

The acoustic-based methods enable remote detection of gas pipeline leaks and provide the leak area. However, accurate localization of buried leaks within the leak area requires further investigation. In this scenario, the unknown wave speed in soils and the computational complexity associated with three-dimensional (3D) localization in underground spaces pose challenges. Therefore, a joint estimation method based on a specially-designed nonuniform planar array is proposed to determine both the leak position and wave-speed. Specifically, a small-aperture uniform subarray is embedded into the large-aperture nonuniform array. By utilizing the small-aperture subarray, we can solve for the relationship between wave-speed and direction of arrival (DOA) of far-field waves. Subsequently, two-dimensional spectrum estimation is performed using the large-aperture array to obtain estimates for both wave-speed and near-field source distance. Finally, without resorting to 3D spectrum estimation, the 3D coordinates of the leak are determined. Experimental results conducted on buried pipes demonstrate that the proposed method effectively works across three soil types at varying burial depths. Notably high accuracy is achieved using a large-aperture array expended from the uniform L-shaped array with RMSE less than 0.1 m at SNR of 15 dB. Both experimental validations and simulations confirm that the novel approach can be successfully applied in various scenarios.

Effect of the leak port area and tube length on suppression of spontaneous ignition of high-pressure hydrogen

Suppression of high-pressure hydrogen spontaneous combustion is essential for the sustainable development of hydrogen energy. Previous studies have shown that suppressing hydrogen spontaneous combustion by reducing the area of the leak port is a feasible method. However, the effect of some factors, such as tube length, on this suppression method has not received attention. Therefore, the effect of leakage port areas of 10 mm, 8 mm, 6.6 mm, and 4.5 mm on the suppression of hydrogen spontaneous combustion was investigated experimentally and simulated for different pipe lengths. The results show that reducing the leak port area increases the hydrogen-air mixing path, which raises the combustible concentration. However, by reducing the leak port area, the intensity of shock waves and the maximum temperature in the tube decreased significantly, and the possibility of hydrogen spontaneous combustion decreased. This indicates that reducing the leak port area can inhibit hydrogen spontaneous combustion. In addition, within a certain leak area, increasing the tube length weakens the performance of this inhibition method. However, the effect of tube length on this method disappears as the leak area decreases. Finally, the leakage port area is reduced, changing the flow field at the nozzle, so that the spontaneous combustion flame in the near field of the nozzle undergoes extinguishment and re-ignition. The results show that reducing the area of the leakage port can effectively inhibit hydrogen self-ignition and is not affected by the length of the tube, providing a way to inhibit hydrogen self-ignition.

Experimental evaluation of the effect of leakage in scroll compressor

This research gives an experimental investigation of the scroll compressor, with an emphasis on the effect of leakage on performance enhancement. The effect of gas leakage losses on com-pressor performance is studied both experimentally and conceptually. In the present study, we have modified the scroll compressor to bypass the refrigerant through an orifice called leakage and experimentally investigate the effect of valve opening area and angle to observe the effect of leak gas on compressor performance, compressor capacity loss, discharge line temperature rise, and discharge gas temperature. Experimental results indicated that the maximum per-centage rise in suction superheat is observed to be 7.13% at a maximum effective valve open-ing area of 0.33 m2, whereas the rise in discharge line temperature lies in the range of 0.8% to 2.75% over the entire range of effective leak area. In addition, based on experimentation the 8.9 % maximum compressor capacity loss is observed.

Trans-Nasal Endoscopic Repair of CSF Rhinorrhea: An Institutional Experience.

Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF) rhinorrhea results from breakdown in the integrity of structures separating the subarachnoid space and nasal cavity, namely subarachnoid space and dura mater, the bony skull base and periostea alongside the upper aerodigestive tract mucosa. Endoscopic repair is considered the treatment of choice for CSF rhinorrhea. Our aim of study was to analyze the etiopathogenesis and outcomes of treatment. A retrospective study review of patients treated with endoscopic repair of CSF rhinorrhea at tertiary care hospital in ENT Department Benazir Bhutto hospital Rawalpindi from august 2013 to September 2017 identified 25 patients. Majority of them were male. The defects were closed in three layers using fat, fascia lata and nasal mucosa along with fibrin sealant in majority of patients. Pre operatively subarachnoid drain was placed in all patients. Patients were followed up to 3 months. Forty-four patients underwent endoscopic repair of CSF rhinorrhea. The age group ranged from 16 to 55 years. Of the total of 44 patients 26 (59%) were males and 18(41%) females. The mean age of the patients in our study was 32.8 ± 9.7. Post trauma CSF leak was seen up to 52.3% of the patients. The most common site of leakage was identified Cribriform plate area. Our success rate of endoscopic repair was 88.6%. The most commonly observed complication was meningitis that was observed in 2 (4.5%) of the patients that too were managed conservatively. Accurate localization of site of leakage appears to be essential for successful endoscopic repair of CSF rhinorrhea. In our study cribriform plate area was commonly observed area of CSF leak. In our study, the success rate was 88.6% and low complication rate 4.5%.

Utilizing Ground-Penetrating Radar for Water Leak Detection and Pipe Material Characterization in Environmental Studies: A Case Study

Detecting and mapping subsurface utilities in urban areas is crucial for identifying defects or damages in drinking and sewage pipes that can cause leaks. These leaks make it difficult to accurately characterize the pipes due to changes in their reflective properties. This study focused on detecting leaks originating from underground pipes and distinguishing between these various types of pipes. It also aimed to create a visual fingerprint model that displays the reflection characteristics of these pipes during different leak conditions, enabling efficient maintenance and handling procedures on the pipes. To achieve this, a finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method was used to simulate two types of pipe materials with and without leak areas to construct different scenarios. Additionally, a ground-penetrating radar (GPR) field survey was conducted using a 600 MHz antenna in a part of the El Hammam area on Egypt’s northwest coast. The simulated images produced with numerical modeling were compared with the radar profiles obtained using GPR at particular locations. The numerical simulations and radar profiles demonstrated the noticeable influence of water leaks from the different pipes, wherein the reflection of saturated soil waves was interrupted due to the presence of saturated soil. Envelope and migration techniques were employed in a new application to accurately distinguish between different pipe types, specifically focusing on leak areas. The strong correlation between the real radar profile and the specific signal of a water pipe leak in the simulated models suggests that GPR is a reliable non-destructive geophysical method for detecting water pipe leaks and distinguishing between the different pipe materials in various field conditions. The simulated models, which serve as image-matching fingerprints to identify and map water pipe leaks, help us to comprehend reality better.

Vascular senescence and leak are features of the early breakdown of the blood–brain barrier in Alzheimer’s disease models

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an age-related disease, with loss of integrity of the blood–brain barrier (BBB) being an early feature. Cellular senescence is one of the reported nine hallmarks of aging. Here, we show for the first time the presence of senescent cells in the vasculature in AD patients and mouse models of AD. Senescent endothelial cells and pericytes are present in APP/PS1 transgenic mice but not in wild-type littermates at the time of amyloid deposition. In vitro, senescent endothelial cells display altered VE-cadherin expression and loss of cell junction formation and increased permeability. Consistent with this, senescent endothelial cells in APP/PS1 mice are present at areas of vascular leak that have decreased claudin-5 and VE-cadherin expression confirming BBB breakdown. Furthermore, single cell sequencing of endothelial cells from APP/PS1 transgenic mice confirms that adhesion molecule pathways are among the most highly altered pathways in these cells. At the pre-plaque stage, the vasculature shows significant signs of breakdown, with a general loss of VE-cadherin, leakage within the microcirculation, and obvious pericyte perturbation. Although senescent vascular cells were not directly observed at sites of vascular leak, senescent cells were close to the leak area. Thus, we would suggest in AD that there is a progressive induction of senescence in constituents of the neurovascular unit contributing to an increasing loss of vascular integrity. Targeting the vasculature early in AD, either with senolytics or with drugs that improve the integrity of the BBB may be valid therapeutic strategies.

Significance of the Goddard Score in Predicting Complications Related to Air Leak After Lobectomy

BackgroundPostoperative air leakage is a frequent complication after lung resection, and emphysema is a risk factor. However, no study has investigated the relationship between emphysema severity and postoperative complications related to air leak by the Goddard score (GS), a visual evaluation method of radiologic emphysema using computed tomography. MethodsThis study included patients who underwent lobectomy for non-small cell lung cancer between April 2009 and March 2022. The utility of GS in predicting complications related to air leak (air leak prolonged for ≥5 days, pleurodesis, and reoperation for air leak) was investigated by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and multivariable analysis with a logistic regression model. ResultsThis study included 477 patients. The GS was a significant predictor of complications related to air leak (area under the curve, 0.696; P < .001). Based on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, GS of 6 points was used as the cutoff point for multivariable analysis. In the multivariable analysis, GS of ≥6 points was a significant predictor of complications related to air leak (odds ratio, 2.719; P = .007). In the subgroup analysis of patients with emphysema, GS of ≥6 points was a significant predictor of complications related to air leak (P = .014). ConclusionsThe GS was useful in predicting complications related to air leak. Patients with radiologic findings of emphysema with GS of ≥6 points should be recognized as a high-risk group for complications related to air leak.

Validation of the fire dynamics simulator (FDS) model for fire scenarios with two liquid pool fires in multiple compartments

A validation study on the fire dynamics simulator (FDS) model for fire scenarios with multiple liquid pool fires occurring in multiple compartments was performed. For fire growth in the open simulation, the mass loss rate per unit area (MLRPUA) time curve obtained experimentally was used as the input. In the blind simulation, the pyrolysis model was used. For the ventilation flow rate curve, the supply/exhaust flow rate curve measured in the experiment was used as the input for the open simulation, whereas the quadratic fan curve model was used for the blind simulation. The time-averaged datasets of the output parameters from the FDS model and experiment were plotted as data points on scatter plots. In terms of bias factor and model standard deviation of output parameters, the scatter plots under the open simulation conditions were compared with those of NUREG-1824. Under blind simulation conditions, the bias factor and model standard deviation of output parameters increased significantly. A sensitivity analysis was performed on input parameters, such as the MLRPUA time curve, supply/exhaust flow time curve, compartment leak area, and maximum differential pressure in the compartment. Within the given ranges of the sensitivity input parameter values, only changing the MLRPAU time curve significantly affected the bias factor and model standard deviation of the output parameters.

Failure analysis of pulverizer pipe elbow in PLTU boiler

Erosion occurs due to several different mechanisms, depending on the composition, size, shape of the eroding particles, speed, angle of impact, and surface composition of the eroded components. The pulverizer pipe elbow has become worn out due to the pulverized coal fluid abrasion flowing on the pipe, which the type is AISI Grade 1026. This study was carried out on the causes of this damage case. Damage to the elbow in the boiler needs to be analyzed for the failure of the elbow so that the damage's cause is known and it becomes a lesson so that the same damage does not occur again. The research aims to: 1. Find out the cause of damage to the pulverizer elbow on the boiler; 2. Know the correct maintenance strategy to increase the reliability of pulverizer pipes in boilers; 3. Simulate erosion due to coal particles in the pulverizer pipe using the Autodesk Simulation Computational Fluid Dynamics software program; 4. Analytical calculations of the erosion rate that occurs at the bend of the pulverizer pipe (elbow) in the boiler. The analysis was done by visual observation, hardness testing, metallographic observation, simulation of the ANSYS CFD program, and analytical calculation. The result of the ANSYS simulation showed that the main factor causing the leakage was erosion-corrosion. In the leaking area, the corrosion concentration was higher than in other areas, indicated by the red color in that area. From the calculation results, it was concluded that the largest erosion rate occurs at the angle of 200 with the value is 4.9548 x 10- 11 m3 / s, the smaller the pulverized coal’s angle of impact crashed the pulverizer pipe elbow, the greater the erosion.

First results from the ACURATE Prime XL human feasibility study

Background/purposeThis prospective, open-label, single-arm study evaluated transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in patients with severe aortic stenosis with ACURATE Prime XL, an iteration of the ACURATE neo2 device designed with improved radial force and adaptations for compatibility with a larger annulus diameter (≥ 26.5 mm and ≤ 29 mm based on pre-procedure diagnostic imaging). MethodsThe composite primary device success endpoint was based on Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC)-2 criteria. The primary safety endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality and all stroke at 30 days. Aortic valve (AV) performance, including mean AV gradient, AV area, and grade of paravalvular leak (PVL), was assessed by an independent core laboratory. Results13 male patients were enrolled at 3 Australian centers (mean age: 83.1 years; 10 of 13 were considered high/extreme operative risk). 61.5 % of patients met the primary device success endpoint. At 30 days, no patients experienced death or stroke; one patient received a permanent pacemaker. Mean AV gradient improved from baseline (42.7 ± 11.0 mmHg) to discharge (7.7 ± 2.5 mmHg) and through 30 days (7.2 ± 2.3 mmHg). Mean AV area was 0.8 ± 0.1 cm2 at baseline, 1.9 ± 0.3 cm2 at discharge, and 1.7 ± 0.3 cm2 at 30 days. Per core-laboratory adjudication, no patient had moderate or severe PVL at 30 days; 91.7 % had no/trace PVL and 8.3 % had mild PVL. Conclusions and relevanceIn this first-in-human feasibility study of the ACURATE Prime XL valve, there were no safety concerns, and no deaths or strokes within 30 days. Valve hemodynamics were favorable, and no patient had >mild PVL.

Preliminary analysis focusing on in-vessel thermal hydraulics in loss-of-heat removal systems in a sodium-cooled fast reactor

Accident scenarios for the safety evaluation of sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) are categorized into two groups: Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) and Loss-of-Heat Removal System (LOHRS). The latter is subdivided into two scenarios—Loss-of-Heat Sink (LOHS) and Loss-of-Reactor Level (LORL)—depending on the initiating event. With the development of SFRs, research on ATWS has been paid much attention to due to its rapid accident progression, which could lead to significant radioactive release. Conversely, the significance of LOHRS has increased in recent decades due to lessons learned from accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant of Tokyo Electric Power Company. However, compared with ATWS, finding and evaluation tools for LOHRS have been limited. Hence, code development is initiated to enhance the severe accident analysis code AZORES, which the Nuclear Regulation Authority developed for the safety evaluation of SFR accidents. This enhancement is achieved by coupling AZORES with plant dynamics code ADYTUM in order to deal with more detailed thermal hydraulics behavior in reactor cooling system. The paper describes the coupling methodology, focusing on the thermal–hydraulic model as the first step of code development and its application. The coupling has been confirmed to be well achieved through a preliminary analysis of LOHS, comparing the results of coupled and single AZORES. The comparison of the analysis results between LOHS and LORL by the AZORES coupled with ADYTUM has been conducted to identify the key phenomena in accident progression. The comparison shows that the coolant leak area and the pressure drop at the piping of the reactor cooling system affect accident progression in LOHS. Consequently, the coupled AZORES is capable of predicting in-vessel thermal–hydraulic behavior in LOHRS successfully, reflecting accident conditions and plant design appropriately.

Incidence of Post-Operative Cerebrospinal Fluid Leak in Patients Operated for Spinal Dysraphism

for spinal dysraphism. Materials and Methods: 80 patients who underwent surgery for spinal dysraphism were enrolled in this study. This study was conducted at Neurosurgery Unit, JPMC, Karachi. Patients from 1 month to 3 years of age were included in the study. Patients were followed for 2 months post-surgery. The incidence of cerebrospinal fluid leak among patients operated for spina bifida was determined. Results: Mean age was 1.5 years ± 5 months. There were 68.7% males and 31.3% females. 47.5% of patients had myelomeningocele, 41.3% of patients had meningocele, and 11.25% of patients had Tethered cords. Among 80 patients, 16.3% developed CSF leaks. 6.3% of patients were those who developed postoperative hydrocephalus and their CSF leak resolved after the VP shunt. In 8.8% of patients, CSF leaks resolved after suturing the leak area. 1.3% of patients with CSF leak developed meningitis; he was kept on antibiotics and was discharged on the 10th day of readmission. 5% of patients developed wound infections, they were kept on antibiotics, and daily dressings and were discharged within a week. Conclusion: Most common location for myelomeningocele and meningocele is the lumbosacral area followed by the thoracic and cervical regions. Overall, 28.6% developed complications. 16.3% of patients developed CSF leaks.CSF leak was seen more in myelomeningocele repair patients as compared to meningocele and tethered cord. Most of the leaks can be managed with simple suturing and VP shunts in patients complicated by postoperative hydrocephalus. Keywords: Myelomeningocele (MMC), Meningocele, Cerebrospinal fluid leak (CSF), VP Shunt.

Pitfalls of EUS-guided gastrojejunostomy in a patient with history of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and a frozen abdomen.

Video 1Case of EUS-guided gastrojejunostomy in a patient with a history of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and a frozen abdomen.

Water distribution network leak localization with histogram-based gradient boosting

Abstract Accurate and rapid leak localization in water distribution networks is extremely important as it prevents further loss of water and reduces water scarcity. A framework for identifying relevant leak event parameters such as the leak location, leakage area, and start time is presented in this paper. Firstly, the proposed data-driven methodology consists of acquiring pressure data at nodes in the network through hydraulic simulations by randomly changing the leak event initial conditions (leak location, area, and start time). Pressure uncertainties are added to the sensor measurements in order to make the problem more realistic. Secondly, the acquired data are then used to train, test, and validate a machine learning model in order to predict the relevant parameters. The random forest and the histogram-based gradient boosting machine learning algorithms are investigated and compared for the leak detection problem. The proposed approach with the histogram-based gradient boosting algorithm shows high accuracy in predicting the true leak location.

Management of Anastomotic Leaks in Ileal Pouch Anal Anastomosis for Ulcerative Colitis.

Anastomotic leaks remain a dreaded complication after ileal pouch anal anastomosis (IPAA). Their impacts can be devastating, ranging from an acute leak leading to postoperative sepsis to chronic leaks and sinus tracts resulting in long-term pouch dysfunction and subsequent pouch failure. The management of acute leaks is intricate. Initial management is important to resolve acute sepsis, but the type of acute intervention impacts long-term pouch function. Aggressive management in the postoperative period, including the use of IV fluids, broad-spectrum antibiotics, and operative interventions may be necessary to preserve pouch structure and function. Early identification and knowledge of the most common areas of leak, such as at the IPAA anastomosis, are important for guiding management. Long-term complications, such as pouch sinuses, pouch-vaginal fistulas, and diminished IPAA function complicate the overall survival and functionality of the pouch. Knowledge and awareness of the identification and management of leaks is crucial for optimizing IPAA success.

Fire hazard identification on the flight deck of a short-take-off/vertical-landing type aircraft carrier: fire scenarios selection

ABSTRACT The flight deck of aircraft carriers in operation is exposed to fire risks which must be mitigated by fire safety measures such as firefighting and suppression systems. To develop advanced fire safety measures, the quantitative risk assessment and management is essential, where fire hazards must be identified in a probabilistic manner considering operational conditions (e.g. sortie generation rates) and site-specific ocean environmental conditions (e.g. humidity, wave and wind profiles). In this paper, a set of realistic fire scenarios on the flight deck of a hypothetical short take-off/vertical landing (STOVL) type aircraft carrier are selected, which shall be used for the quantitative fire risk assessment and management. Potential fire hazards are formulated as a function of random parameters associated with operational and ocean environmental conditions, and probabilistic sampling technique is used to select hundred fire scenarios. Fire exceedance diagrams are established in association with fire-impacted (leak) area through the selected fire scenarios.