This study investigates which local area characteristics, included in the Healthy Ageing/Vulnerable ENvironment (HAVEN) Index, are the strongest factors predicting transition into permanent residential aged care (PRAC) and mortality, and the geographic distribution of these factors. A retrospective cohort study of older individuals living in the community in Adelaide who received their first eligibility assessment for age care services between 2013 and 2015 (n = 16,939) was conducted. The study cohort, from the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA), was linked by postcode to HAVEN Index items, selected following item response theory (IRT) analysis to determine the strongest local area factors associated with PRAC and mortality. Geospatial mapping of the factors determined the geographic distribution of these significant factors. Fourteen HAVEN Index items were associated with entry into PRAC and mortality. Three area-level items, lower educational attainment, financial housing stress and low levels of volunteering by older people, were risk factors for entry into PRAC and mortality while the remainder of the items identified were different for each outcome. The mapped local area risk factors for each outcome highlighted similar geographical areas of vulnerability. Local area characteristics are associated with entering PRAC and mortality. Our findings can inform area-level responses to make neighbourhoods more age-friendly, potentially allowing more people to age longer in place. Similar analyses, conducted for other areas, could provide evidence to support the widespread development of age-friendly neighbourhoods reducing area-level inequalities in ageing.
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