Statistical Areas Research Articles

COVID-19 Infection: A Mozambican Case Study

In China, the country of COVID-19 origin, until February 23rd, 2020, more than 77000 cases of COVID-19 infection were reported, and 60% of confirmed cases were reported in the city of Wuhan. Mozambique declared a state of emergency in March 2020, different prevention measures were implemented to control and respond in a timely manner to the pandemic, including the early diagnosis of cases of the disease. The present work reports some details about a larger project with the main objective of computing models of analysis and visualization of COVID-19 data in Mozambique. The topic falls within the area of Statistics with the purpose of providing evidence that explains the stage of the country regarding the evolution of COVID-19 cases, (from the notification of the first case of COVID-19 in Mozambique on March 22nd, 2020, until May 31st, 2022) with the focus on the provinces of Maputo, Nampula, Cabo Delgado and Niassa. The work considered qualitative and quantitative data to allow decision-making in the health area on measures to prevent the pandemic and the trend of cases and deaths from the disease.

Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States.

To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. Estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data.

Subsidiary networks, connectivity, and urban-regional economic development

ABSTRACT This paper argues that urban-regional income development depends on a larger fabric of economic relations at the national and international levels. Focusing on Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) in the US, the paper identifies firms’ subsidiary networks across space and their changes over time. These networks form a basic architecture through which important growth impulses in production and innovation are transmitted that impact urban income levels. Using a balanced panel of U.S. CBSAs with LexisNexis Corporate Affiliations data from 1993 until 2017, we develop a model that examines the relationship between national and international connectivity and urban income levels, differentiated by origin/destination of ties, industrial sectors, and various interaction effects. Our results strongly support that linkages at both the national and international scale (particularly linkages with European locations) are significantly related to urban-regional income development.

A Typology of Micropolitan Areas in the United States

In 2003, the U.S. Census Bureau created a new census designation known as micropolitan statistical areas to better differentiate between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. This article uses hierarchical clustering and discriminate analysis to create a typology of micropolitan areas using U.S. census data on demographic, housing, and economic characteristics. The regional concentration ratio (RCR) is then used to determine whether a cluster type is over- or underrepresented at the census division. The analysis revealed a three-cluster solution with: (1) a middle- class cluster overrepresented in the East North Central and West North Central divisions; (2) a poor, minority cluster overrepresented in the South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, and Mountain divisions; and (3) a high human capital cluster overrepresented in the New England, Mountain, and Pacific divisions. Of micropolitan areas, 59.8 percent were considered middle-class; 28.1 percent were poor, minority; and 12.1 percent were high human capital. The nine-cluster solution further refined cluster categories.

Social inequalities in health within the City of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy): An ecological assessment.

to document existing geographical inequalities in health in the city of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy), examining the association between area socioeconomic disadvantage and health outcomes, with the aim to suggest policy action to tackle them. the analysis used an ecological framework; multiple health indicators were considered in the analysis; socioeconomic disadvantage was measured through indicators such as low education, unemployment, immigration status, and housing crowding. For each municipal statistical area, Bayesian Relative Risks of the outcomes (using the Besag-Yorkand-Mollié model) were plotted on the city map. To evaluate the association between social determinants and health outcomes, Spearman correlation coefficients were estimated. residents in the City of Milan aged between 30 and 75 years who were residing in Milan as of 01.01.2019, grouped in 88 statistical areas. all-cause mortality, type-2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, neoplasms, respiratory diseases, metabolic syndrome, antidepressants use, polypharmacy, and multimorbidity. the results consistently demonstrated a significant association between socioeconomic disadvantage and various health outcomes, with low education exhibiting the strongest correlations. Neoplasms displayed an inverse social gradient, while the relationship with antidepressant use varied. these findings provide valuable insights into the distribution of health inequalities in Milan and contribute to the existing literature on the social determinants of health. The study highlights the need for targeted interventions to address disparities and promote equitable health outcomes. The results can serve to inform the development of effective public health strategies and policies aimed at reducing health inequalities in the city.

Road Salt Legacies: Quantifying Fluxes of Chloride to Groundwater and Surface Water Across the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area

AbstractFreshwater chloride concentrations have been increasing in North American surface waters for decades, largely driven by increases in the use of road salt, which is commonly applied as a deicer. In Chicago, thousands of tons of road salt are applied to roadways each winter, and increases in surface water chloride concentrations have been noted across the region since the mid‐1960s. While much of the applied salt runs directly off to nearby waterways during snowmelt events, some percolates to groundwater, affecting public supply wells and increasing the amount of chloride released to streams as baseflow during the non‐salting season. In the present study we have developed a spatially distributed chloride mass balance across the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA) for a 30‐year period (1990–2020) to better our understanding of long‐term chloride fluxes and storage. Our results show that inputs of road salt to the region increased by 33% between 1990 and 2020. During this same period, riverine chloride loads across the region increased by 60%. Despite these increases in riverine chloride export, we find that chloride is accumulating in CMSA groundwater at a rate of ∼480 ktons year−1. We show that shallow aquifers, <30 m, exhibit only seasonal chloride storage, without long‐term accumulation. In contrast, at depths below 30 m, we find chloride concentrations to be increasing over time, indicating that legacy chloride is accumulating at deeper depths in CMSA groundwater. The present results highlight the importance of legacy chloride to long‐term water quality dynamics in North American cities.

Geospatial Analysis of the Proportion of Persons Defined as Underrepresented in Medicine for Each Medical School and Their Surrounding Core-Based Statistical Area.

The current approach to increasing diversity in medical education fails to consider local community demographics when determining medical school matriculation. We propose that medical schools better reflect their surrounding community, both because racially/ethnically concordant physicians have been shown to provide better care and to repair the historical and current racist impacts of these institutions that have criminalized, displaced, and excluded local Black and Brown communities. In this study, we used geospatial analysis to determine that medical school enrollments generally fail to reflect their surrounding community, represented as their core-based statistical area, within which the individual medical schools reside.

한국과 중국의 국가 수준 고등학교 수학영재 교육과정의 비교·분석

Objectives The purpose of this study is to find implications for Korean mathematics education by examining how gifted mathematics education is operated in Korea and China through a comparison and analysis of the basic direc-tions of gifted mathematics education in high schools in both countries. Methods We analyzed the contents and composition methods for mathematically gifted students in the education curriculum and textbooks in Korea’s 2022 and 2015 curricula and China’s 2017 revised mathematics and curricu-lum contents and textbooks. Results Korea adheres to standardized processes and contents in each area of algebra, analysis, geometry, proba-bility and statistics, and mathematical history and definitional areas, while China sometimes develops integrated processes that are not restricted to areas by focusing on specific topics. In the geometry area, Korea’s 2015 curric-ulum lacked content for mathematics gifted students compared to China, but this was sufficiently overcome in the advanced geometry newly established in the 2022 curriculum, and the parts that were lacking compared to China, such as mathematical history and definitional areas, were also expanded in mathematics and culture, AI mathe-matics, and other areas of the 2022 curriculum. Conclusions Both countries have advanced courses and textbooks being used in mathematics gifted education, but Korea is divided into general courses and elective courses and specialized courses used in special purpose high schools such as science high schools according to the content composition elements and difficulty, while China is only divided into required courses and elective courses. However, while Korea’s specialized course textbooks are a single book, China allows publishers to create level-based textbooks based on composition elements and difficulty, resulting in diverse content and levels.

Factors in Hand Surgery Access for Rheumatoid Arthritis Before vs After the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has severe functional and economic consequences. The implications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) and demographic factors for access to surgical treatment are unclear. To investigate factors associated with time to RA hand surgery, surgical incidence, and cost after implementation of the ACA. This cross-sectional study used insurance data from the IBM MarketScan Research Databases from 2009 through 2020 to compare time to surgery, surgical incidence, and treatment cost for RA of the hand before and after ACA implementations. Included patients were 18 years or older with a new diagnosis for RA of the hand and at least 1 procedural code for arthroplasty, arthrodesis, tenolysis, tendon repair, or tendon transfer. Patients with coexisting inflammatory arthritis diagnoses were excluded. Demographic variables analyzed included patient sex, age at index date, residence within or outside a metropolitan statistical area (MSA; hereafter urban or nonurban), insurance and health plan type, Social Deprivation Index, Elixhauser Comorbidity Index score, and Rheumatic Disease Comorbidity Index. Data analysis occurred from October 2022 to April 2023. Surgery for RA of the hand during the pre-ACA (before 2014) vs post-ACA (2014 or later) periods. Time to surgery, surgical incidence, and cost of treating RA in patients undergoing hand surgery for RA. Among 3643 patients (mean [SD] age, 57.6 [12.3] years) who underwent hand surgery for RA, 3046 (83.6%) were women. Post-ACA passage, 595 (86.2%) patients who resided in urban areas had a significantly lower time to surgery than those who did not (-70.5 [95% CI, -112.6 to -28.3] days; P < .001). Among urban patients, the least socially disadvantaged patients experienced the greatest decrease in time to surgery after ACA but the change was not statistically significant. For all patients, greater social disadvantage (ie, a higher SDI score) was associated with a longer time to surgery in the post-ACA period; for example, compared with the least socially disadvantaged group (SDI decile, 0-10), patients in SDI decile 10 to 20 waited an additional 254.0 days (95% CI, 65.2 to 442.9 days; P = .009) before undergoing surgery. Compared with the pre-ACA period, the mean surgical incidence in the post-ACA period was 83.4% lower (162.3 vs 26.9 surgeries per 1000 person-years; P < .001), and surgical incidence was 86.3% lower in nonurban populations (27.2 vs 3.7 surgeries per 1000 person-years; P < .001) but only 82.8% lower in urban populations (135.1 vs 23.2 surgeries per 1000 person-years; P < .001). Per capita total costs of all treatment related to RA of the hand decreased in the post-ACA period but the change was not statistically significant. Insurer-paid costs were lower in the post-ACA period but the change was not statistically significant. Out-of-pocket expenses did not change. Findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that after ACA passage, disparities exist in access to timely, cost-effective hand surgery for RA. Increased access to surgical hand specialists is needed for nonurban residents and those with greater social deprivation, along with insurance policy reforms to further decrease out-of-pocket spending for RA hand surgery.

Mobility networks in Greater Mexico City

Based on more than 11 billion geolocated cell phone records from 33 million different devices, daily mobility networks were constructed over a 15-month period for Greater Mexico City, one of the largest and most diverse metropolitan areas globally. The time frame considered spans the entire year of 2020 and the first three months of 2021, enabling the analysis of population movement dynamics before, during, and after the COVID-19 health contingency. The nodes within the 456 networks represent the basic statistical geographic areas (AGEBs) established by the National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics (INEGI) in Mexico. This framework facilitates the integration of mobility data with numerous indicators provided by INEGI. Edges connecting these nodes represent movement between AGEBs, with edge weights indicating the volume of trips from one AGEB to another. This extensive dataset allows researchers to uncover travel patterns, cross-reference data with socio-economic indicators, and conduct segregation studies, among other potential analyses.

COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS WITH MATLAB

The Definition of Computational Statistics Clearly, computational statistics has a connection to the field of statistics as a whole. Determining what we mean by the area of statistics is therefore necessary before wedefine computational statistics in its appropriate sense. At its most fundamental level, statistics deals with turning unprocessed data into knowledge [Wegman, 1988]. Any scientist who is faced with an application that calls for the analysis of raw data must consider issues like:•What data should be collected to answer the questions in the analysis?•How much information needs to be gathered?•What conclusions can be made based on the information?•How much of those conclusions can be believed? The science ofuncertainty is a topic that statistics addresses, and it can assist the scientist in answering these queries

Improving the Understanding of the U.S. Urban Racial Geography and Its Temporal Change Using the Racial Landscape Method

Racial landscape (RL) is an innovative methodology for studying racial geography that offers several advantages over current approaches. This article aims to highlight two key features of RL that have the potential to significantly impact the discipline. First, the RL approach introduces a fundamentally different method for assessing segregation compared to existing methods. The RL method allows us to calculate segregation for any arbitrary area without the need for subdivisions, diversity measures, reference regions, or reliance on census geography. Importantly, by using data from fifty-one Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) across the United States, we demonstrate that the RL’s segregation metric produces comparable rankings of segregation among MSAs when compared to existing segregation indexes. Thus, although the RL expands the scope of problems where segregation can be quantified, it remains compatible with current segregation assessment practices. Second, we use data from the core parts of four selected MSAs in 1990 and 2020 to showcase how high-resolution RL-based racial maps can be employed for spatially explicit visual analyses of racial change. We discuss the potential impact of RL on the field, particularly in relation to segregation assessment and the evaluation of spatially explicit models of racial dynamics.

Lasting Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Care and Prevention of Sexually Transmitted Infections in the Midwest.

The COVID-19 pandemic reduced the general accessibility of health services. Many sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing and treatment sites modified services (e.g., reduced hours, limited walk-in availability, decreased testing capacity), changes that may result in permanent change in STI service availability. At the same time, systems were driven to innovate in ways that could benefit patients. This study aimed to describe how the COVID-19 pandemic changed STI clinical services, with a focus on long-term impacts. In July 2022, a phone survey was designed to assess services for STIs at the 105 STI testing and treatment providers in the St. Louis metropolitan statistical area. Sexually transmitted infection testing providers included STI clinics, primary care clinics that cater to a broad population, and community-based organizations, and excluded emergency departments and urgent care centers. In most cases, the survey was completed by a clinic manager, medical director, or nursing staff member. Of the 75 locations that were interviewed, 12 (16%) had not returned to prepandemic capacity and operations as of July 2022. Five sites had closed completely since the pandemic began, 3 of which are in the northwestern region of the metropolitan statistical area. Most (58.6%) of the open clinics had added telehealth appointments. Sexually transmitted infection testing sites decreased during the pandemic with lasting impact in one area of the Midwest. Resources to support STI infrastructure should be expanded. Maintaining updated information on STI care providers in the region can aid future assessments.

Evidence of cloud and rainfall modification in a mid-sized urban area – A climatological analysis of Augusta, Georgia

Cloud and rainfall distributions in urban spaces have implications for planning, hydrological response, reservoir management, renewable energy generation, transportation, and agricultural productivity. Studies have confirmed that large urban areas can initiate or modify precipitation, but there are still questions about the role of city size and atmospheric interactions. The majority of case study approaches have focused on large cities or urban clusters and have largely ignored small to moderate sized cities. Herein, an analysis of the Augusta, Georgia metropolitan statistical area is conducted. Using a gridded, daily multi-sensor precipitation dataset and satellite-based cloud cover climatology, the warm seasons (June, July, and August) covering the period from 2002 to 2019 were analyzed using spatial comparisons within an upwind-downwind framework and z-score statistics. Such methodologies have been published for larger urban areas. We confirmed that a moderate-sized city like Augusta, Georgia and neighboring Aiken, South Carolina is associated with spatial patterns consistent with the “urban rainfall effect” (URE) and possibly an “urban cloud effect” (UCE). Contextual analysis of other local mesoscale signatures related to nearby water bodies are also provided as a sanity check on process identification.

Capital and Cohesion: A new perspective on the analysis of mortality differentials

Abstract: Social characteristics related to mortality, such as hierarchy or family structure, are generally represented as a unidimensional scale. This is inconsistent with much of sociological theory, which represents hierarchy as a multidimensional, or partially ordered, scale. We utilize Bourdieu’s tripartite concept of Capital – Economic, Cultural and Social – to conceptualize social hierarchy and construct appropriate scales. We combine these with measures of Household Structure to investigate their relation to male and female aggregate mortality. Using data for Australian small statistical areas (SA2) from the census of 2011, we regressed male and female standardized mortality (SMR) on the scales for Capital and Household Structure, with controls for State/Territory, Remoteness, and Indigeneity of the SA2. We find that Economic and Cultural Capital significantly reduce mortality, while Social Capital has a smaller effect, significant only for males; Family Structure is at least as important as Capital in explaining levels of mortality; Geographic location, namely State/Territory and degree of Remoteness, are significant determinants of mortality risk and Indigenous areas are at a heavy disadvantage, even when we account for all other social and situational characteristics. We conclude that social space, as measured by scales of social hierarchy and family structure, is multidimensional. To understand fully why mortality is higher in some areas than in others, we need to bring together theory and data.

Australian Youth Self-Harm Atlas: spatial modelling and mapping of self-harm prevalence and related risk and protective factors to inform youth suicide prevention strategies.

Suicide prevention strategies have shifted in many countries, from a national approach to one that is regionally tailored and responsive to local community needs. Previous Australian studies support this approach. However, most studies have focused on suicide deaths which may not fully capture a complete understanding of prevention needs, and few have focused on the priority population of youth. This was the first nationwide study to examine regional variability of self-harm prevalence and related factors in Australian young people. A random sample of Australian adolescents (12-17-year-olds) were recruited as part of the Young Minds Matter (YMM) survey. Participants completed self-report questions on self-harm (i.e., non-suicidal self-harm and suicide attempts) in the previous 12months. Using mixed effects regressions, an area-level model was built with YMM and Census data to produce out-of-sample small area predictions for self-harm prevalence. Spatial unit of analysis was Statistical Area Level 1 (average population 400 people), and all prevalence estimates were updated to 2019. Across Australia, there was large variability in youth self-harm prevalence estimates. Northern Territory, Western Australia, and South Australia had the highest estimated state prevalence. Psychological distress and depression were factors which best predicted self-harm at an individual level. At an area-level, the strongest predictor was a high percentage of single unemployed parents, while being in an area where ≥30% of parents were born overseas was associated with reduced odds of self-harm. This study identified characteristics of regions with lower and higher youth self-harm risk. These findings should assist governments and communities with developing and implementing regionally appropriate youth suicide prevention interventions and initiatives.

Актуальные проблемы развития регионов России: экономика и демография

The subject of the study is the relationship between Russian regions and the federal center based on the analysis of the degree of effectiveness of subsidies provided to them from the federal budget. The purpose of the work is to establish the expediency of expanding the legal framework of the subjects of the Russian Federation to solve their demographic and economic problems and ensure sustainable growth. The influence of partial financing of national projects on solving demographic and economic problems is considered, and the need to take into account the peculiarities of the region in conducting regional policy is shown. The concept of a "chronically lagging region" has been introduced. It is shown that by reducing the supermortality of men of working age, compensation for more than 80% of the population loss is possible. The reduction of male supermortality in Russia has been identified as a priority task of financial, budgetary and health policy. It is noted that the differentiation of the population by wealth in poor regions is greater than the national average. It is concluded that in Russian statistics it is necessary to identify metropolitan statistical areas that do not coincide with the existing metropolitan statistical area, on the basis of which the growth of large cities takes place. Initiatives have been put forward to hold annual negotiations between federal and regional governments on the size of transfers and to reconsider the consideration of a healthy environment as a national and territorial, and not only as a global public good.

The Uneven Depression: Michigan&amp;apos;s Economic Development at the City and Metropolitan Level (1960–2020)

The article is focused on the inner economic and geographic differences in the state of Michigan that emerged as its core automotive industry weakened from the late 1950s to the present. The study is based on data on the population of cities and the GDP of metropolitan statistical areas. Chronologically, the study is divided into three periods (1960–1970s, 1980–1990s, and 2000–2010s) that differed markedly in the overall dynamics of Michigan&amp;apos;s economic development. It is shown that pronounced growth was usually observed only in those centers whose economies were not based on traditional automobile production.

Assessment of freight accessibility in New York City: A spatial-temporal approach

Freight transportation is critical to metropolitan regions' economic competitiveness and long-term viability. However, it is one of the activities that produce the most negative externalities, including greenhouse gas emissions. The study of the relationship between freight transportation, land use, and demand management is critical for promoting enlightened policies that increase the social benefits of supply chains while avoiding their undesirable effects, such as climate change. Nonetheless, the tools available to public planners for incorporating freight transportation into their analyses are limited. In this context, this paper aims to highlight the impact that freight demand management strategies and freight-efficient land uses can have on increasing urban freight accessibility. In this study, the authors suggest a freight accessibility framework based on two measures of accessibility (an isochrone-based model and a gravity-based model) to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of freight accessibility in the New York City metropolitan statistical area for four sectors—retail trade, accommodation and food services, transportation and warehousing, and e-commerce. The results indicate that accessibility measures provide valuable insights towards policymaking, particularly to policies that target land use (e.g., location of warehouses), and policies that aim to shift the traffic of freight vehicles to periods with less traffic congestion.

Proximity and Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from the Introduction of New Airline Routes

This paper examines the causal relationship between proximity and knowledge diffusion by estimating the elasticity of core-based statistical area (CBSA) pair-level citations to variations in travel time induced by the introduction of new flight routes. The findings reveal that decreasing travel time between U.S. cities by 20% increases knowledge flow by 0.5%, which corresponds to an increase of over 15,000 citations at the aggregate level. Rather than boosting within-firm knowledge transfer, travel time reduction leads to a rise in knowledge spillovers primarily across firm boundaries, particularly among those that form joint ventures, have block holdings in each other, or form supply chain relationships. These effects are stronger among city pairs located farther away from each other, with higher absorptive capacity, in complex technology classes, and for newly developed technologies. Additional mechanism tests suggest that the most likely channel through which travel time reduction impacts knowledge spillover is by influencing the transfer of tacit knowledge via facilitating cross-CBSA inventor flow and information acquisition. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance. Funding: S. Zhou receives support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 71804155] and China Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [Grant 20720181047]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.01717 .