ARDL Bounds Testing Approach Research Articles

Cointegration Relationship between Growth, Inequality and Poverty In Tunisia

The aim of this paper is to investigate the direction of causality between poverty, inequality and economic growth in Tunisia using time series data covering the period 1970-2013. We use in this paper the ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) modification of the Granger causality test. The result of bound testing reveals that there is an evidence of long-run relationship among the variables. In long term, we conclude that there is a positive relationship between income inequality and poverty. However, in the short-run there is a positive relation between inequality and growth to poverty. The results of Toda and Yamamoto indicate that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from economic growth to poverty. We, therefore, recommend that governments should intense efforts in reinforcement the economic growth and should pay attention on its sustainability. In addition, we found unidirectional causality between poverty and inequality. However, on the other hand, the results of this paper indicate a bidirectional causality between inequality and economic growth. Therefore, the political leaders should focus their efforts on the middle class and poorest to reduce inequality and, therefore, support the growth that can reduce poverty.

The Impact of Air Transportation on Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide Emissions in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Modelling Approach

No one can deny the progression and innovation in the aviation transportation collected at national and international level. But the accountancy of the impact of air transportation on environmental degradation is naive and emerging trend of the current era. The air transportation versus environment is the key contribution to the literature that is solely conducted for Pakistan first time in this context. The objective of this research is to compute the impact of air transportation on carbon dioxide emissions, nitrous emissions and methane emissions separately in the three models by applying ARDL bound test approach during 1990 to 2017. The result depicts significant and positive relation of air transportation (carriage) to carbon dioxide emissions (0.77), nitrous emissions (0.20) and methane emissions (0.38) in long-run. The short-run results infer that the air transportation (passenger) has significantly positive relation to carbon dioxide emissions (0.278), nitrous emissions (0.207), and methane emissions (0.080). The econometric outcomes show the significant and direct relation to transportation (both passenger and cargo) to carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions in short and long-run. Moreover, per capita GDP, population density, and energy demand also significantly affect the environment showing significant and positive coefficients to all three categories (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) of emission. In case of Pakistan, FDI and trade for this duration didn’t significantly contribute to the CO2, NO2, and methane emissions. Since the last decade the economic issues of Pakistan like terrorism, political instability, energy crises, and poor management along with the worst performance by tertiary sectors have severely hit the economy, and as a result, the FDI and trade sector has tormented in a substantial proportion. Finally, pairwise Granger causation also supports the short and long-run consequences. The outcomes suggested that the fuel-efficient energy use and technological diversification in the transportation sector are essential to mitigate the degrading environmental emissions.

The Nexus Between Carbon Emission, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth And Changing Economic Structure In India: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach

India, one of the fastest growing economies of the world is also one of the largest CO2 emitters in the world. Challenge before the country is to reduce this alarming emission levels without hindering its growth prospects. Against this backdrop, the present paper studies the dynamic causal relationships between India's CO2 emission, energy consumption, GDP growth and changing economic structure. The study uses cointegration and causality analysis for the same. ARDL bound testing approach along with Johansen-Juselius maximum likelihood procedure is applied to examine the existence of long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Causal linkages between the variables are studied using Granger causality test in Vector Error Correction model framework. For this the study uses data on India for-CO2 emissions, primary energy consumption, GDP per capita and structural variables like, agriculture and service value added, urbanization, production of capital and intermediate goods and employment. Primary energy consumption, per capita GDP and trade openness explain variations in CO2 emissions over long run. Elasticity of CO2 emission with respect to energy consumption is 2 percent in long run and 1.8 per cent in short run. CO2 emissions are less responsive to changes in per capita GDP (0.52) and trade openness (0.10). Both trade openness and GDP per capita growth lower emissions by producing and exporting more labor-intensive environment friendly goods. Causality analysis shows that trade openness Granger causes CO2 emission both in short run and in long run while CO2 emission Granger causes service value added and production of capital and intermediate goods in the short run. Output in these sectors in turn Granger cause employment in the long run. Given the nature of causality, there is no way that India can reduce energy consumption in service sector or in capital and intermediate goods sector. Thus, faced with growing concern over rising emission levels and requirements to meet its growth potentials, India should take policies aiming at greater investment in and usage of cleaner energy, conservation of energy and improving energy efficiency. This way it can strike a balance between reducing its emission levels while maintaining its current growth momentum.

TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH LINKAGES IN MALAYSIA

This study attempts to test a hypothesis of the relationship between the tourism sector and economic growth in Malaysia. Although a large number of literatures indicate that there is strong correlation between the tourism industry and economic growth, not much is known on the dynamic inter-relationship between these variables. This study employs recently developed ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration. The estimated result based on the long run time series behaviour for the number of tourist arrival and economic growth indicator shows that these variables are not cointegrated. In the short run analysis, we found that economic growth has unidirectional Granger caused to the tourism activities. Recognition of the existence of a causal relationship between international tourism and economic growth has important implications for the development of different tourism activities and policy decisions. In order to attract tourism activities, effort must be taken to promote stability as well as sustainability of the economy of this country.

Does female human capital contribute to economic growth in India?: an empirical investigation

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of female human capital on economic growth in the Indian economy during 1970-2014.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs Ng-Perron unit root test to check the order of integration of the variables. The study also used ARDL-bounds testing approach and the unrestricted error-correction model to investigate co-integration in the long run and short run; Granger’s causality test to investigate the direction of the causality; and variance decomposition test to capture the influence of each variable on economic growth.FindingsThe study constructed a composite index for both male and female human capitals by taking education and health as a proxy for human capital. The empirical findings reveal that female human capital is significant and positively related to economic growth in both short run and long run, while male human capital is positive but insignificant to the economic growth; same is the case for physical capital, it implies that such investment regarding female human capital needs to be reinforced. Further, there is an evidence of a long-run causal relationship from female human capital, male human capital and physical capital to economic growth variable. The results of variance decomposition show the importance of the female human capital variable is increasing over the time and it exerts the largest influence in change in economic growth.Research limitations/implicationsThe empirical findings suggest that the Indian economy has to pay attention equally on the development of female human capital for short-run as well as long-run growth of the economy. This implies that the policy makers should divert more expenditure for developing support for female education and health.Originality/valueTo the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the relationship between female human capital and economic growth in the context of the Indian economy.

Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Producer price index and consumer price index are used instead of each other for calculating inflation rate and various economic indicators. However, if there is a long-run relationship between the variables, this process can provide effective results. Otherwise, the results vary according to the price index. Therefore, in this study, long and short-run relationships between producer and consumer price index was investigated. As a result of analysis performed with ARDL, bounds test for the period of 2010:m5-2016:m4 in Turkey, bi-directional and statistically significant causality has been found between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both in the short and long run.

Linkages between Inflation and Economic Growth in Serbia: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

In the context of measuring the effects of structural policy, the analysis of the relation of economic growth and inflation is essential for the economy of the Republic of Serbia. The high inflation rate has caused for years macroeconomic instability in the Serbian economy. Consequently, the main objective of this study is to examine the potential relation and impact between inflation and economic growth, with the variable of unemployment treated as a control variable. As an appropriate methodological framework for establishing the long run relationship (cointegration) between variables, we used ARDL model, while Toda-Yamamoto procedure was used for testing the short run causality. The period of observation was from Q1 2007 to Q3 2014. The results showed the presence of the cointegration between variables in the long run, and that in the short run, a unidirectional causality from inflation to economic growth was present. According to the results of the conducted empirical study, it can be noted that the growth in the Serbian economy has been linked to a moderate increase of inflation in the short run. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.28.4.14003

Assessing the Impact of Skilled Labour on Output Growth in South Africa: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Economic theory emphasized the necessity of skill acquisition and conservation as a precondition for growth. This paper investigates the extent to which skilled labour can contribute to output growth in South Africa in the long run. The theoretical framework employed was based on Hicks neutral augmented Cobb-Douglas production function to account for the impact of technological progress on labour and capital. Skilled labour was measured with three parameters of experience (learning-by-doing), special training and educational attainments. The methodology employed the ARDL bounds testing approach and found that whereas there is no short-run causality running from the independent variables to the dependent variable, there was a long run causality running from the measures of skilled labour to growth. The coefficient of the ECT was both significant and negative; therefore the system gets adjusted towards their long-run equilibrium steady state at the speed of 23 percent annually. This means that the measures of skilled labour contribute to growth in the long run to the tune of 23 percent annually. The study, therefore, recommends investments in human capital through education and special trainings as well as to encourage knowledge transfer through globalization and from one generation to another to conserve skills.

Economic freedom and effects on economic growth: A time series analysis for Turkey

Abstract. Economic freedom represents personally free economic activity level. Thus such as Fraser Insitute or Heritage Foundation the level of economic freedom in Turkey for a compound period of before and after 1980 has been constituted originally. Freedom index referred to internationally measures of organization composed of different indicators. These indicators are derived from the point of view of market economy, liberal perspective. Level of economic freedom indicated by index values are to be analyzed econometrically with another economic indicators. Other variables are human capital, income per labor stemmed from MRW Model of economic growth, physical capital etc. Results of time series analysis with ARDL Model, Cointegration Methods found out significant relationship between economic freedom and growth. Findings are differently and specifically evaluated for Turkish economy and political economy. Keywords. Economic freedom, Economic growth, Turkish economic freedom index, ARDL bound test approach, Johansen cointegration analysis. JEL. F43, N10, O10.

The Economic Effect of Refugee Crises on Neighbouring Host Countries: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

AbstractThere is a considerable debate in terms of opportunities and challenges about the presence of refugees in the neighbouring host countries. Most of the existing discourse has focused only on their humanitarian and security implications. This article, on the other hand, seeks to uncover this issue through a purely economic lens, focusing on the economic impact of more than three million Afghan refugees in Pakistan. Utilizing data for the period 1979–2014 and the ARDL bounds testing approach, we arrive at few important conclusions. The empirical results indicate that Afghan refugees have a strong negative impact on economic growth in Pakistan. The effect holds in both the short run and the long run, suggesting that the influx of refugees lowers real economic activity in the country. Ultimately, the study implies that hosting refugees can never be a boon to Pakistan's economy.

Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Selected African Countries

This paper examines the relationship between financial development, economic growth and poverty reduction in nine African countries for the period 1970-2013. It uses the ARDL bounds testing approach. The results show evidence of long-run relationship among the variables in height countries with GDP and financial deepening having a positive effect on poverty reduction in five countries (Benin, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon and South Africa), and poverty reduction having a positive effect on economic growth in three countries (Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal). The study also reveals bidirectional long-run causality between economic growth and poverty reduction in Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon and South Africa, and bidirectional long-run causality between finance and poverty reduction in Benin, Cameroon and South Africa. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing economic growth and improving access to credit would reduce poverty but also that measures of poverty reduction would lead to economic growth and financial deepening in these countries.

Remittance, Exchange Rate and Dutch Disease: The Case of Bangladesh

Bangladesh had historically relished the fortune of being a labor surplus nation and therefore had accumulated remittances in large volumes over the last four decades. Thus, the concept of remittance-effectiveness in shaping the economy of Bangladesh emerges with utmost significance and importance amidst researchers and policy makers all around the globe. The aim of this paper is to identify the dynamics of real exchange rate movements following inflow of remittances in Bangladesh over the period of 1980 to 2013 and whether such movements caused Dutch disease problem in the country. This paper fills the gap in the empirical literature using the ARDL bounds testing approach to investigate the causal relationship between foreign remittance and real exchange rate exclusively in the context of Bangladesh. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, ARDL cointegration test, ARDL Error Correction Model (ECM) approach and ARDL Engle-Granger causality test are used in the paper. The results confirm that there is a negative correlation between remittance and real exchange rate which implies that a rise in the volume of remittance inflows exert appreciative pressures on Bangladesh’s real exchange rate. However, such real exchange rate movements were not translated into Dutch disease problems.

Causal relationship between crude oil price, energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Ecuador

AbstractThis study examines the causal relationship between crude oil price, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Ecuador over the period 1971–2013 incorporating indicators of economic performance. ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration provides evidence of cointegration between the variables in the presence of structural break in the series. The long‐run effect of energy consumption on CO2 emissions in the oil‐dependent economy is found to be positive and statistically significant. The long‐run and short‐run causal effects of crude oil price on energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the economy are found positive and statistically significant, suggesting that higher crude oil prices create economic conditions that generate more energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the Ecuadorean economy. The direction of causality among the variables examined using Toda‐Yamamoto Granger causality test procedure suggests that a unidirectional causality runs from crude oil price to energy consumption and economic growth, and bidirectional causality between energy consumption and CO2 emissions. A unidirectional causality that flows from CO2 emissions to economic growth through financial development is also observed in the economy.

What Determines Health Status of Population in Pakistan?

This paper empirically examines factors related to social, economic, demographic and health care services that affect health status in Pakistan. The analysis is conducted using ARDL bound testing approach on annual data ranging from 1960 to 2014. It is estimated that health spending has a significant impact on health status, specifically, development health spending and income are robust predictors of health status for the population in Pakistan and is seen to affect female life expectancy positively in both the short and in long run, however, it is important to note that the impact of income per capita is relatively stronger than that of public health spending. Total fertility rate (fr) appears to have a significant effect on child mortality rate (cmr) with a negative sign both in the short and in long-run. This result is especially important for developing countries like Pakistan where population growth is high and infant deaths are frequent. Bidirectional causality exists between infant and child mortality and fertility rate; these results are supported by the modern economic theory of population. The effect of medical personnel availability on health status, particularly in reducing infant and child mortality, remains statistically non-significant despite the bidirectional causal relationship between this variable and the infant and child mortality. Nutrition appears to be causally related to life expectancy and child mortality. Thus, it is important for the Government of Pakistan to design its policies based on the development targets in addition to the growth targets that have been set in place for the country.

Financial Development, Savings and Investment in South Africa: A Dynamic Causality Test

This study investigates the causal relationship between financial development and investment in South Africa during the period from 1976 to 2014. The study incorporates both bank-based and market-based segments of financial sector development. In addition, composite indices for bank-based and market-based financial development indicators are used as explanatory variables. The study incorporates savings as an intermittent variable – thereby creating a simple trivariate Granger-causality model. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and the ECM-based Granger-causality test, the study finds a unidirectional causal flow from investment to financial development, but only in the short run. In the long run, the study fails to find any causal relationship between financial development and investment. These results apply irrespective of whether bank-based or market-based financial development is used as a proxy for financial sector development. The findings of this study have important policy implications.

Does Okun’s Law Exist in Nigeria? Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Does Okun’s Law Exist in Nigeria? Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

The Impact on Unemployment of Social Security Contributions: the Empiricial Analysis in Turkey

Social security contributions are important public incomes after taxes in OECD countries. Beside, social security contributions as a mean of the finance of social security system is a determiner on the main macroeconomic factors such as savings, employment, the cost of employment, the level of shadow economy, economic growth, competitiveness and income inequality. Employment has been important policy goals in Turkey like many OECD countries during recent decades. High unemployment rate is a serious problem for countries. Effecting negatively labor market, high burden of social security contributions causes low level of employment. The aim of this study is to find the relationship between social security contributions and unemployment for Turkey. Therefore, we can evaluate whether reducing social security contributions is a way reducing of unemployment or not. We use time series data during period 1965-2015. The research methodology is based on an analysis of indicators as unemployment rate, social security contributions as percentage of GDPs, the percentage of total tax revenues. Unit root test is non-stationary for social security contributions. On the other hand, unemployment is stationary for related period. The long run relationship between variables was tested by ARDL bound test approach. Based on the sample results, there is a long run cointegration between social security contributions and unemployment rate (both as percentage of GDP and percentage of taxation).

Evaluating the Importance of Exports in Economic Growth of Pakistan; Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Abstract This study attempts to empirically evaluate the importance of exports growth in economic growth of Pakistan from 1972–2015, as exports growth plays as an engine in growth of economies. For that purpose this study applied Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model Approach to regress the included variables and the empirical results obtained from regression analysis of the variables shows that exports growth plays an encouraging and noteworthy role in economic growth of Pakistan. The study also recommends that an effective socio, economic political change is required to bring a fruitful increase in exports growth of Pakistan.

Foreign direct investment, exports and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa

The article empirically investigated economic growth as a function of foreign direct investment and exports in South Africa. The article applied the autoregressive distributed lag model, known as the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long run relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The error correction model was used to examine the short run dynamics; and the VECM Granger causality approach was used to investigate the direction of causality. The article confirmed cointegration between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The article indicates that both foreign direct investment and exports spur economic growth contrary to some studies, which found that FDI does not cause economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis found unidirectional causality between economic growth and foreign direct investment running from foreign direct investment to economic growth, unidirectional causality between foreign direct investment and exports running from foreign direct investment to exports and bidirectional causality between economic growth and exports. The article confirms the FDI-led growth hypothesis for South Africa. On the policy front, the government could stimulate foreign direct investment through incentives to investors, creation of a good macroeconomic environment and a careful utilisation of loose monetary policy to grow the economy.

A note on the electricity-growth nexus in Lao PDR

This paper investigates the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Laos by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and Granger causality tests. Our results confirm the existence of a long run relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. In addition, we found unidirectional causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption in the long run supporting the ‘Conservation hypothesis’.