Arctic Zone Of The Russian Federation Research Articles

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF SORBENTS BASED ON NATURAL MATERIALS FOR CLEANING OIL-POLLUTED SOILS IN THE KOLA NORTH

The article presents the results of using sorbents based on natural materials as soil reclamation agents in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation to reduce the negative impact of oil and oil product spills. It has been established that the most effective are composite sorbents based on sphagnum moss and peat in various combinations with excess activated sludge. The effectiveness of sorbents based on natural materials is compared with the commercial sorbent OilSorb. High dynamics of reducing the content of oil products in the first days in soil samples with the addition of composite sorbents, including natural sorption material and activated sludge, is noted.

Students’ subjective perceptions of extremism in the Russian Arctic

Young people are a traditional risk group for radicalization and involvement in protest and extremist activities. The relevance of this topic is due to the growing threat of youth radicalization, the expansion of the activities of extremist organizations, and the need to organize high-quality preventive work in educational organizations at various levels. The article provides an overview of research on the topic under consideration and also presents the results of a series of surveys in general educational institutions and organizations of secondary vocational education (n = 11,052), universities (n = 3966) located in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The results of the study on aspects of students’ ideas about extremism are presented in terms of assessing their own knowledge about extremism, the presence/absence of radically minded people around them, determining the degree of threat from the activities of extremist groups for themselves and their social environment, and identifying approaches to preventing the growth of extremism in society. Conclusions are drawn about the need to improve preventive work models in educational organizations towards a targeted (group) approach.

ЗАДАЧИ ПО ПРЕДОТВРАЩЕНИЮ ПРИРОДНЫХ ЧРЕЗВЫЧАЙНЫХ СИТУАЦИЙ НА АКВАТОРИИ МОРЕЙ РОССИЙСКОЙ АРКТИКИ (ПО МАТЕРИАЛАМ МОРСКОЙ ДОКТРИНЫ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ)

This article provides an overview of the main organizational and managerial tasks to ensure protection from natural emergencies during marine activities in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The main mechanism for ensuring the safety of maritime economic activity in the Arctic is called the prevention of emergency situations by forecasting them. The problems of natural (climatic extremes) emergencies are emphasized, the main directions of obtaining predictive information, scientific and scientific-technical activities, and the tasks of legal regulation are briefly outlined. The guideline for the presentation of the topic of the article is the Maritime doctrine of the Russian Federation – a strategic act of the Head of state, which contains the main provisions on the principles and mechanisms of maritime activities in the Russian Federation. The result of this study is the positioning of emergency forecasting as an inseparable segment of activity in the Arctic from the economy.

Models of energy development in the regions of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

Models of energy development in the regions of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation: Old Problems, New Solutions

The current Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 has not solved a number of tasks in this area. The level of differentiation of the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation, their budgetary and infrastructural security remains high. Citizens have not been provided with equal access to State-guaranteed services. The current mechanisms for the allocation of productive forces and the resettlement of the population are often non-systemic in nature. In addition, the external and internal conditions for the development of the country's economy and social sphere have changed significantly by now. The Russian Federation includes 4 new regions. The concentration of population and infrastructure facilities in the largest urban agglomerations hinders the overcoming of regional imbalances. The task of ensuring the unity of the legal, economic, financial, social, cultural and educational space remains urgent. The issue of the ongoing population decline in the territories of the North, Siberia and the Far East, as well as the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, is acute. Insufficient development of transport and energy infrastructure limits the potential of the regions, hinders the solution of tasks to increase the connectivity of the country's territory. In this regard, the task of smoothing out interregional imbalances by maximizing the full disclosure of the regions and municipalities’ own potential, and creating a comfortable living environment for citizens throughout the country is of strategic importance. This is the aim of the draft Strategy of spatial Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 with a forecast up to 2036. The article attempts to answer the question: how much is the new version of the Strategy able to solve the accumulated problems in this area?

An optimal set of criteria for the allocation of territories within the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation

The article examines the criteria for classifying regions in the Far North as part of the Arctic Zone within the Russian Federation. It evaluates a range of factors, including natural and climatic conditions, socio-economic aspects, and the medical and biological characteristics of the territories. Additionally, the article presents the outcomes of zoning the northern territories of the Russian Federation based on the natural and climatic conditions that impact human life. This analysis resulted in the identification of three criteria for determining the inclusion of territories in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation: the vegetation component of landscapes in its zonal distribution; the CAFF boundary, which proposed by the Arctic Council’s Arctic Flora and Fauna Conservation Working Group; and the level of ultraviolet deficiency, which reflects the direct impact of latitude on the natural environment and human health. These criteria are characterized by their clarity and ease of interpretation, and do not require the development or endorsement of supplementary methodological guidelines. They are easily grasped by both regional leaders and residents regarding the inclusion or exclusion of areas from the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation. Consequently, these criteria can be effectively integrated into federal legislation as directly applicable norms.

Деятельность российских нефтегазовых компаний в Арктике: теория и практика резильентности в эпоху декарбонизации

Addressing global climate change presents a shared challenge, particularly for the development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) and for industrial companies operating in the region, including oil and gas producers. Given the strategic role of hydrocarbon development in the AZRF for ensuring Russia’s energy security and the responsibility of oil and gas companies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is critical to examine their role in enhancing the resilience of the AZRF amidst global decarbonization efforts. This article aims to provide a theoretical and practical analysis of the relationship between organizational and territorial resilience in the context of climate change. It focuses on the measures taken by Russian oil and gas companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimize the anthropogenic impact of their operations in the AZRF. The empirical basis for this study is drawn from the corporate reports of the largest Russian oil and gas companies. Through a review of contemporary Russian and international research, key risks to the resilience of economic systems in the AZRF are identified. A conceptual framework is proposed, highlighting the role of oil and gas companies in supporting the resilience of the AZRF, particularly through decarbonization initiatives aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change, such as permafrost thawing. Content analysis has been used to categorize the environmental and industrial safety measures, as well as decarbonization efforts, undertaken by Russian oil and gas companies in the AZRF. The study concludes by outlining the various decarbonization scenarios and strategies implemented by these companies in the AZRF.

Экономическая динамика и эколого-экономическая устойчивость арктических регионов России

This paper explores the environmental and economic resilience of the regions within the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). We define a region's environmental and economic resilience as its capacity to withstand external shocks, independently restore the balance between its economy and environment, and transform while maintaining or improving the balance between its environmental and economic systems. The study's relevance stems from the rapid industrialization of the Russian Arctic in recent years and the constraints on investment in environmental technologies, green production, and management. The study discusses an analysis of macroeconomic, environmental, and economic indicators of the Russian Arctic regions, examining their interrelations during the pandemic crisis and under the pressure of Western sanctions. From 2018 to 2022, the anthropogenic impact on the environment in the Russian Arctic gradually declined, although the situation varied for individual indicators depending on trends in the regional sectors. Regions were identified that lead in environmental and economic resilience as well as those showing increased anthropogenic impact despite declining industrial production. A multidimensional classification of regions in the Russian Arctic was developed based on indicators characterizing the state of the environmental and economic spheres. Clusters of regions with high, low, and limited levels of environmental and economic resilience were identified. The study revealed that the macroeconomic situation in these regions is more dynamic than their environmental and economic conditions. Macroeconomic indicators in the Arctic regions demonstrate different trends during periods of external shocks. Overall, the Russian Arctic economy was sensitive to the 2020 crisis; the 2022 sanctions had a negative impact on economies focused on Western markets, and in 2023, macroeconomic dynamics slowed down across all regions of the Russian Arctic. Further research is necessary to understand the factors influencing the environmental and economic resilience of the Russian Arctic regions under current conditions.

Медико-демографическая ситуация в Арктической зоне Республики Саха (Якутия) за период 2000–2022 годы

Relevance. Scientific studies have revealed problems in health condition of the population of the Russian Federation, living in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, thus the state support of the Arctic regions of the country is needed. Such a support is based not only on economic interests but on the issues of development of human potential as well. Objective. Analysis of the dynamics of medical and demographic processes in the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the period of 2000–2022. Materials and methods. Initially, on the basis of data from the FSGS of the RS (Y) and YARMIAC, the situation for all administrative- territorial subjects (districts/uluses) of the republic was calculated by the percentile method. According to this method, the uluses with indicators of up to the 10 percintiles were related to territories with a low level of one or another indicator, from 10 to the 25th persentiles -with a level below the average, from 75 to 90th-above the average and over 90th and over 90 Persentiles - with a high level. Obviously, with indicators lying between the 25th to the 75th persentiles, the uluses belonged to the group with average values. Then the indicated uluses included in the Arctic zone were allocated in a separate group for further analysis. Results. It turned out that if there is no unequivocal final assessment in the group and EPN, then 5–6 uluses of mortality and infant mortality notes their relatively high levels as a whole for a 23-year period. Conclusions. If the fertility has uluses with both relatively high and relatively low levels of this indicator, then 5 uluses already have relatively high levels of mortality rate when compared with all uluses of the republic. In addition, 6 uluses have relatively high levels of infant mortality. According to EPN, the picture also seems ambiguous.

Institutional Bases for The Formation of the Subject of Aviation Infrastructure Management in the System of Ensuring the Sustainability of the Northern Sea Route

The development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) infrastructure is one of the priority areas of managerial thought in the development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Commercial use of high-latitude caravan routes in the waters of the NSR should significantly change the situation with the organization of logistical maritime flows around the Eurasian continent. Ensuring uninterrupted traffic along with fulfilment of the conditions of urgency of delivery and cargo safety form the category of stability of the NSR functioning. Its northern part runs exclusively in domestic seas, and ensuring regular vessel traffic is Russia’s priority task in the competition for transporting cargo from east to west (and back) by sea. The movement of ships along the NSR falls directly under the authority of the management of Rosatom State Corporation, while the management of the infrastructure that ensures the continuous movement of transport along the NSR is carried out collegially. At the same time, such an important aspect as the management of the infrastructure complex supporting the movement of container ships with transit cargo has been assigned to three components of a single management entity: the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of the Russian Federation for the Development of the Russian Far East and the Arctic, and Rosatom Corporation, without clearly defining the boundaries of responsibility for interdepartmental management decisions. To date, this approach has already caused a series of organizational and technical difficulties. The aim of the study is to identify the rational organization of the infrastructure of the management subject, allowing to ensure the sustainability of the movement of passenger and cargo ships throughout the water area of the NSR; it is based on such scientific methods as induction, systematization, grouping Key results of the work may be in demand both in the course of scientific research in the field of infrastructure development in the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, and in the framework of improving the existing management system of aviation infrastructure of these territories.

Analysis of the influence of living conditions, as a collection of social factors within the environment, on mortality rates among the rural and urban populations of the Nenets autonomous okrug from 2000 to 2019

BACKGROUND: Currently, in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF), there are evident indications of a deterioration in the medical and demographic situation amidst a lack of adequate social infrastructure development. For the first time, we attempted to analyze the impact of living conditions, which encompass various social factors within the habitat, shaped by the social infrastructure, on the mortality rates of the population of one of the regions within AZRF. AIM: To assess the impact of living conditions, as a set of social factors within the environment, on the mortality rates among the rural and urban populations of the Nenets autonomous okrug (NAO) in the period from 2000 to 2019. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The databases “Housing and communal services and social infrastructure in NAO in 2000-2019” and “Death cases in NAO in 2000–2019” including information on the population number and age and gender structure of the NAO population across individual settlements have been collected. Using the scoring system for assessing living conditions, a ranking with subsequent division into tertiles of all rural NAO settlements was carried out according to the value of the integral index of living conditions (IILC). A comparative analysis (tertiles with the city, and tertiles with each other) of average annual age-standardized rates of overall mortality, mortality from the main causes and structural components of external causes (EC) of mortality was performed. Relative risks were calculated as the ratio of mortality rates in each tertile to the corresponding indicator for the urban population. RESULTS: Average annual standardized rates and relative risks of mortality (total, EC, drowning, freezing, alcohol poisoning and transport accidents) of the NAO population demonstrated a “step by step” increase in the sequence “city — highest tertile — middle tertile — lowest tertile”, i.e. as living conditions worsen and as the IILC decreases. Statistically significant differences were identified between the city and tertiles, as well as between the highest (“favorable” living conditions) and lowest (“unfavorable” living conditions) tertiles in terms of total mortality, mortality from EC, drowning and freezing. Mortality rates from alcohol poisoning and transport accidents also increased as living conditions worsened, although the associations did reach the level of statistical significance. With the exception of suicides, the relative risks of mortality for individual EC reached maximum values in the lowest tertile of living conditions. CONCLUSION: Statistically significant inverse associations between total mortality, mortality from external causes and its main structural components, and the values of the integral index of living conditions have been identified among the rural population of NAO. A decrease in living conditions was significantly associated with an increase in mortality rates and relative risks.

Развитие инструментов государственной поддержки ESG-проектов в Арктической зоне РФ

The Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is one of the key and promising territorial units of our country, which is of strategic importance not only for the national socio-economic system, but also for the world economy as a whole. For this reason, regional and federal authorities are continuously working on the issues of improving the efficiency of management of socio-economic development of this territory. One of the urgent directions is socio-ecological-economic development of the Arctic zone, which is impossible without appropriate support of public authorities and involvement of business structures and population in these processes. Special attention should be paid to the issues of resource support, including the stimulation of investment processes, in order to implement the ESG-agenda. The purpose of this study is to formulate scientific and practical recommendations for the development of the system of state support for ESG-projects, which are the driver of investment and environmental climate formation in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The study proposes a toolkit of state support for ESG-projects, in which the key role is given to tax preferences for investors, as well as subsidizing the costs of residents at the expense of the regional and federal budgets and preferential conditions for attracting borrowed funds. The application of the proposed tools will not only allow business structures investing in the implementation of projects of socio-ecological-economic orientation in the Arctic zone to receive additional benefits, but will also become an incentive to reach full project capacity, which will achieve a synergistic effect in the form of profit for business entities and socio-economic effect for the authorities and the population in the form of new jobs, developed infrastructure and revenue to budgets at various levels.

Цифровая и логистическая инфраструктуры Арктической зоны: современное состояние исследований и пути развития

The subject of the article is the analysis of the current state of research and practice in the field of transport, logistics and digital infrastructures in the Russian Arctic. The authors consider logistic and digital infrastructures as key communication subsystems that ensure the movement of material values, people and information, and thus serve as a prerequisite for the development of the macro-region under consid-eration. The research methods used were literature review of scientific sources and analysis of the ob-tained material. A systematic literature mapping was carried out on Scopus, Google Scholar, Elibrary data-bases. Aspects of the Arctic region development, including the role of logistics and digital infrastructures in this process, are described by scientific schools of Russia, Canada, Norway, China, USA and other countries. The analysis has shown the highly variable state of the subsystems under consideration depending on the specific region, as well as the lack of a comprehensive approach to their joint development and integration. It was stated that there is no such problem statement about the development of communication subsystems of the Arctic zone. On the basis of the analysis, the key directions for the development of logistics and digital infrastructure of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation were formulated. The authors’ recommendations, apart from the obvious tasks of developing sea routes, building and modernizing roads, railways and airports, expanding access to broadband internet and other widely discussed measures, describe the need to integrate the communication subsystems under consideration and focus on the potential of digital technologies to replace and/or supplement the logistics infrastructure in certain aspects.

Законодательные аспекты развития креативных индустрий в регионах российской Арктики (на примере Мурманской области)

The aim of the work is to study the legislative support for the development of creative industries in the Russian Arctic using the example of the Murmansk Oblast. The following tasks have been solved: the legislative framework of the federal level, providing the development of creative industries in Russia as a whole, has been studied; the regional legislative framework has been studied on the example of the Murmansk Oblast; the measures of support for the development of Arctic creative industries at different levels of government have been analyzed. It was revealed that until 2021 the creative sector of the economy was reflected in legal acts of all levels through the concepts of “small and medium-sized businesses”, “self-employed citizens” and “individual entrepreneurs”. The concept of “creative industries” received legislative recognition with the adoption at the federal level of the “Concept for the development of creative industries and mechanisms for the implementation of their state support in large and major urban agglomerations until 2030” in 2021. The Concept and the Action Plan for its implementation, adopted in 2030, laid the regulatory and legal basis for the development of this sector of the economy, but the legislative framework for the development of creative industries in the Russian Federation has not yet been fully formed. The study showed that in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation the situation with regulatory support for the development of creative industries is similar. Using the example of the Murmansk Oblast, it was revealed that the regional legislative framework for this promising area is currently in the nascent stage, and the first normative-legal acts directly related to the development of the Arctic creative industries began to appear only in 2023. It was concluded that it is necessary to develop a concept for the development of Arctic creative industries in the Russian Arctic in order to ensure uniform approaches, consistency of actions and coordination of measures for the development of this sector of the economy in the Russian Arctic. The need to use the term “creative industries” in various legal acts in order to avoid discrepancies and to ensure the uniformity of legal support for this sector of the economy is substantiated.

The functional state of the body in workers engaged in mining in the Arctic zone

Introduction. The functional state and adaptive potential in workers employed at mining enterprises in the Arctic territories are influenced both harmful environmental factors and specific climatic conditions, age and work experience in contact with harmful working conditions. Assessing the impact of work experience on the health in employees to reduce occupational risks and prospects for preserving and strengthening the health of workers at mining enterprises remains an extremely relevant and timely task. Materials and methods. A cross-sectional study of workers was based on a mining and processing plant for the extraction of loparite ore in the Murmansk region. Two hundred one male employee participated in the study. Cardiohemodynamic and somatometric indices were evaluated, on the basis of which integrative indices for assessing functional changes were calculated. The subjects were ranked into groups by work time and age. Results. The analysis of somatometric indicеs, depending on work experience, revealed significant intergroup differences in body mass index, index of physical changes, blood pressure and heart rate. The analysis of heart rate variability showed that with an increase in work experience, there is a unidirectional, negative change in time indices and the wave structure of the heart rhythm towards suppressing the activity of the autonomous regulation circuit with an increased contribution of sympathetic influences on the heart rate. Limitations. Difficult access to medical information and employees’ fears of participating in the study due to fear of dismissal for health reasons. Conclusion. With an increase in work experience, negative changes in the functional state of the body of mining workers in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation are comprehensively manifested (overweight, an increase in the index of functional changes, an increase in blood pressure). The increased influence of sympathetic influences on the heart rhythm, with the suppression of self-regulation processes, is reflected in the tension of regulatory mechanisms leading to a decrease in adaptive potential and the development of a premorbid state.

Investigation of new steel with increased strength for low temperature applications

Abstract The work established the patterns of a structural and phase transformations which occurs in the new steel of the 0,21C-1,0Mn-1,8Ni-0,3Cu-0,3Mo-0,03Ti-0,004B (%, mass) alloying system at different cooling rate. A thermokinetic diagram has been constructed. Laboratory samples of rolled products were manufactured and the mode of hardening of rolled sheets from a temperature of 860 ° C in water was tested to develop the industrial production of new steel using specialized equipment of the laboratory complex of LLC “EC Termodeform-MSTU”. The results of mechanical tests of rolled sheet samples after heat treatment showed that the steel under study in a hardened state has high strength characteristics in complex with increased impact strength at a test temperature of minus 70 °C: tensile strength σUTS = 1500 MPa, yield strength σ0.2 = 1150 MPa, relative elongation A5 = 12.5 %, hardness 429 HBW, impact strength KCV−70 = 50.3 J/cm2. This confirms its high quality and the possibility of using it for the production of heavily loaded mechanical engineering structures operated at low temperatures in the conditions of the Far North and the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.

Сравнительная оценка эмиссии биогаза и химического состава фильтрационных вод на свалках/полигонах твердых коммунальных отходов в Арктической зоне и субъектах средней полосы России

The authors present the results of a comparative assessment of biogas emissions and chemical composition of filtration waters at facilities of accumulated environmental harm — dumps/landfills of solid municipal waste located in the Arctic and non-Arctic regions of Russia. The analysis shows that biogas emissions at the Arctic sites are approximately 19—23.5 times lower than at sites in constituent entities of the Russian Federation not part of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Sites of accumulated harm in terms of chemical composition of filtration waters and biogas emissions, depending on the stage of biochemical destruction of waste, are in the 4th—5th stages of biodegradation and destruction of waste (phases of stable methanogenesis and assimilation). The authors suggest executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as design organizations to use the research results in the development of measures and technical solutions for the elimination of decommissioned dumps/landfills of solid municipal waste.

Прокурорский надзор за исполнением законов в сфере охраны окружающей среды в Арктической зоне Российской Федерации

Federal executive authorities, the Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation, the Environmental Prosecutor's Office of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) pay special attention to the state of the Arctic environment. However, the situation in this region is far from normal. The results of the prosecutor's inspections indicate the presence of numerous violations of environmental legislation in the field of subsoil use, marine and river transport, construction, land use and reclamation, and the elimination of accumulated damage as a result of past years. There are cases of industrial safety violations. A serious problem for the Arctic regions is the lack of an effective waste management system in the Arctic zone. Global warming and disruption of the Arctic environment leads to climate change and can lead to even more tangible and severe environmental consequences. The Environmental Prosecutor's Office has a significant impact on correcting the situation in the Arctic, which conducts inspections of enterprises, organizations and citizens for compliance with environmental legislation, prevents and suppresses environmental offenses, and ensures compliance with environmental protection and environmental management requirements.

Prosecutor’s Supervision over the Implementation of Legislation in the field Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

In the article, the author examines the Arctic territories supervised by the prosecutor’s office, where prosecutors supervise the implementation of laws in the development of the Russian Arctic. Highlights the main elements of prosecutorial supervision: subject, objects, subjects and powers of prosecutors. Analyzes the results of the work of regional prosecutors’ offices to supervise the implementation of laws, the supervised territory of which is entirely included in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The author proposes in supervisory activities to take into account the main goals, objectives and priority areas of activity defined by the Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic for the period until 2035, as well as the Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and Ensuring National Security for the period until 2035. In order to improve prosecutorial supervision, the author proposes to create a new structural unit in the Main Directorate for Supervision of the Execution of Federal Legislation of the General Prosecutor’s Office of the Russian Federation — a department for supervision of the implementation of federal legislation in the Arctic regions and two specialized prosecutor’s offices (environmental and transport) with deployment in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, as well as the publication of departmental orders of the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation.

An approach to interpreting natural indicators of the state of space weather to assess the effects of its impact on high-latitude power systems

The dynamic exploration and development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is inextricably connected with the need to minimize technospheric risks, including those associated with the space weather effects on power equipment systems operated within the boundaries of the auroral oval. At the same time, accompanying monitoring of space weather parameters and geomagnetic field variations in the Arctic is carried out only through a group of satellites and several dozen magnetic stations located mainly in the United States, Canada, northern and central Europe. Obviously, the current situation practically excludes the possibility of promptly diagnostics of the level of geoinduced currents (GIC) for most of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, where in fact the only available indicator of the state of space weather is auroras. In the paper the authors propose an approach to interpreting the manifestation of auroras to assess the effects of space weather on objects and systems of high-latitude infrastructure. Thus, using the example of the “Vykhodnoy” substation of the “Severny Transit” main electrical network, it is shown that when recording auroras in the north, zenith and south, the most probable (averaged over 30 min) GIC level is 0.08, 0.23 and 0.68 A accordingly. In this case, the probability that the average half-hour GIC level will exceed 2 A (in the case of auroras in the north, zenith and south) is ∼6, ∼10 and ∼15%, respectively. In conclusion, ways of modernization and the limits of applicability of the proposed approach are considered.