Arctic Surface Temperature Research Articles

Increased Arctic cloud longwave emissivity associated with pollution from mid-latitudes

There is consensus among climate models that Arctic climate is particularly sensitive to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and that, over the next century, Arctic surface temperatures are projected to rise at a rate about twice the global mean. The response of Arctic surface temperatures to greenhouse gas thermal emission is modified by Northern Hemisphere synoptic meteorology and local radiative processes. Aerosols may play a contributing factor through changes to cloud radiative properties. Here we evaluate a previously suggested contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to cloud emission and surface temperatures in the Arctic. Using four years of ground-based aerosol and radiation measurements obtained near Barrow, Alaska, we show that, where thin water clouds and pollution are coincident, there is an increase in cloud longwave emissivity resulting from elevated haze levels. This results in an estimated surface warming under cloudy skies of between 3.3 and 5.2 W m(-2) or 1 and 1.6 degrees C. Arctic climate is closely tied to cloud longwave emission, but feedback mechanisms in the system are complex and the actual climate response to the described sensitivity remains to be evaluated.

The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible Mechanism

The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 60°–90°N amounted to some 1.7°C. Whether this event is an example of an internal climate mode or is externally forced, such as by enhanced solar effects, is presently under debate. This study suggests that natural variability is a likely cause, with reduced sea ice cover being crucial for the warming. A robust sea ice–air temperature relationship was demonstrated by a set of four simulations with the atmospheric ECHAM model forced with observed SST and sea ice concentrations. An analysis of the spatial characteristics of the observed early twentieth-century surface air temperature anomaly revealed that it was associated with similar sea ice variations. Further investigation of the variability of Arctic surface temperature and sea ice cover was performed by analyzing data from a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. By analyzing climate anomalies in the model that are similar to those that occurred in the early twentieth century, it was found that the simulated temperature increase in the Arctic was related to enhanced wind-driven oceanic inflow into the Barents Sea with an associated sea ice retreat. The magnitude of the inflow is linked to the strength of westerlies into the Barents Sea. This study proposes a mechanism sustaining the enhanced westerly winds by a cyclonic atmospheric circulation in the Barents Sea region created by a strong surface heat flux over the ice-free areas. Observational data suggest a similar series of events during the early twentieth-century Arctic warming, including increasing westerly winds between Spitsbergen and Norway, reduced sea ice, and enhanced cyclonic circulation over the Barents Sea. At the same time, the North Atlantic Oscillation was weakening.

Dynamics of recent climate change in the Arctic.

The pattern of recent surface warming observed in the Arctic exhibits both polar amplification and a strong relation with trends in the Arctic Oscillation mode of atmospheric circulation. Paleoclimate analyses indicate that Arctic surface temperatures were higher during the 20th century than during the preceding few centuries and that polar amplification is a common feature of the past. Paleoclimate evidence for Holocene variations in the Arctic Oscillation is mixed. Current understanding of physical mechanisms controlling atmospheric dynamics suggests that anthropogenic influences could have forced the recent trend in the Arctic Oscillation, but simulations with global climate models do not agree. In most simulations, the trend in the Arctic Oscillation is much weaker than observed. In addition, the simulated warming tends to be largest in autumn over the Arctic Ocean, whereas observed warming appears to be largest in winter and spring over the continents.

Inter-Hemispheric Appraisal of the Role of the C37:4 Alkenone as a Climate Proxy: A New Molecular Index to Determine the Position of the Arctic Front and Sea Surface Temperature?

The U3K7 and U~7' index are used as proxies to reconstruct absolute sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the photic zone (Brassell et al. , 1986; Prahl et al., 1988). These indices are derived from the relative abundance of methyl alkenones with 37 carbon atoms and 2, 3 or 4 double bonds (e.g. C37:4 stands for C37 alkenone with 4 double bonds). Alkenones are biosynthesized by some algae of the Class Prymnesiophyceae, such as E m i l i a n i a hux ley i which is the most abundant and widespread coccolithophorid in the oceans, and most likely, the main producer of alkenones found in recent sediments. In comparison to other sedimentary organic components (i.e. biomarkers), alkenones are more resilient to degradation, abundant in sediments, and their presence is widespread in all oceans. The purpose of this paper is to provide new insights into the value of uK7/u3K7 ' tO estimate SST at low temperatures (<10C), and to examine the information contained in C37:4 for palaeoceanographic reconstruction. Alkenone sediment data from the Nordic Seas are compared to data for the Southern Ocean (Sikcs et al. , 1997), to appraise the global significance of regional data from the North and South hemispheres.

Accuracy of sea ice temperature derived from the advanced very high resolution radiometer

The accuracy of Arctic sea ice surface temperatures Ts derived from advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) thermal channels is evaluated in the cold seasons by comparing them with surface air temperatures Tair from drifting buoys and ice stations. We use three different estimates of satellite surface temperatures, a direct estimate from AVHRR channel 4 with only correction for the snow surface emissivity but not for the atmosphere, a single‐channel regression of Ts with Tair, and Key and Haefliger's (1992) polar multichannel algorithm. We find no measurable bias in any of these estimates and few differences in their statistics. The similar performance of all three methods indicates that an atmospheric water vapor correction is not important for the dry winter atmosphere in the central Arctic, given the other sources of error that remain in both the satellite and the comparison data. The errors are not reduced by regression with both thermal channels and the satellite scan angle. A record of drifting station data shows winter air temperature to be 1.4°C wanner than the snow surface temperature. “Correcting” air temperatures to skin temperature by subtracting this amount implies that satellite Ts estimates are biased warm with respect to skin temperature by about this amount. A case study with low‐flying aircraft data suggests that ice crystal precipitation can cause satellite estimates of Ts to be several degrees warmer than radiometric measurements taken close to the surface, presumably below the ice crystal precipitation layer. An analysis in which errors are assumed to exist in all measurements, not just the satellite measurements, gives a standard deviation in the satellite estimates of 0.9°C, about half the standard deviation of 1.7°C estimated by assigning all the variation between Ts and Tair to errors in Ts.

A thermodynamic study of arctic paleoclimatology

The thermodynamic model of J. Adem has been applied to the determination of Arctic and hemispheric surface temperatures with both ice-covered and ice-free states of the Arctic Ocean. The effect of glaciated and nonglaciated continents is included in the investigation. With an ice cover over the Arctic, as at present, computed temperatures for the polar sea and the Northern Hemisphere correspond closely with present observations. Over a broad range of the critical parameters, removal of the ice cover yields computed temperatures that remain well above freezing level throughout the year. With glaciated continents computed Arctic temperatures are depressed.