Arctic Shipping Research Articles

Implications of Arctic shipping emissions for marine environment

ABSTRACT To investigate the distribution and behaviour of ocean vessels in the Arctic region and determine the impacts of their emissions, we examine vessel characteristics in conjunction with a series of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data between 2012 and 2016. These datasets, combined with a bottom-up model for estimating pollution emissions, enable us to analyse the level of pollution generated by vessels in the Arctic region. The results indicate that the movements of the vessels and their emissions increase in frequency and continue to do so unless clean energy or technologies are adopted. More than 80% of the emissions are found to be concentrated in the Norwegian and Barents Seas. Emissions from the Northern Sea Route are comparatively low and those from the Northwest Passage are similarly insignificant. Besides, an empirical analysis of the emissions in the Arctic region is carried out following the more restrictive International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s regulations on sulphur emissions that is implemented in 2020. This investigation supplements the literature analysing Arctic’s pollution emission inventory.

The Modeling and Optimal Control of a Hybrid Propulsion System for an Ice-Capable Tanker

_ With the effects of global warming, the North Sea Route has become an economic option for cargo transportation because of the shorter distance between East Asia and Europe. Generally, conventional mechanical propulsion systems installed in ice-capable tankers suffer from significant drawbacks because of poor fuel efficiency when sailing at low speed, therefore, advanced technologies have been applied such as diesel electric and nuclear-powered propulsion; however, drawbacks still exist. Hybrid propulsion is a more environmental-friendly, economical solution for ships with icebreaking capability, which can address the drawbacks in both diesel electric and nuclear power systems. In this paper, modeling of system components is presented and implemented in MATLAB Simulink. A primary control strategy is applied to the system to ensure system stability, and an advanced secondary strategy is developed and applied to the power sources to minimize fuel consumption. Given two scenarios, the simulation results of the hybrid propulsion system developed in this research and those of diesel electric propulsion systems with DC and AC distribution systems are compared and indicate that the hybrid system can offer up to 22.4% fuel savings over ice-loading condition, and 39.5% fuel reduction over the particular voyage of varying speed in open water is applied in this paper. Introduction In recent years, some sea routes that were previously blocked by ice have become increasingly accessible in the warmest months of the year due to the effects of global warming. Researchers have estimated that, by 2030, the percentage of Arctic shipping will have increased to 25% of cargo trade between Europe and Asia (Lasserre 2019). Northern Sea Route (NSR) shipping provides benefits for international trade, but challenges still exist. Increasing carbon emissions have seriously impacted the Arctic environment (Hassol & Corell 2006). Table 1 shows the total number of ships using Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) in Arctic waters in 2015, and associated black carbon emissions, as published by the IMO (Comer et al. 2017). As it is shown, oil tankers made up just 4.5% of all ships entering Arctic waters but despite their low proportion, they were responsible for 17% of black carbon emissions. Thus, an environmentally friendly and fuel-efficient propulsion system to reduce these emissions from tankers trading in Arctic waters is required.

Profitability of container shipping via the Arctic Northeast Passage: A simulation and regression analysis

The progressive retreat of Arctic sea ice in recent years has offered unprecedented opportunities for commercial shipping via Arctic shipping routes. However, actual annual transits via the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) are rare which signals that shipping companies are reluctant to use the NEP from a cost-benefit perspective. This paper analyzes the profitability of container shipping via the NEP. Based on observational data the distribution of profit for a single-voyage along the NEP for different ice class ships (Arc4 and Arc7) in different shipping modes (direct mode and transshipment mode) is generated via Monte Carlo simulations. The simulated data are then used in a seemingly unrelated regression analysis and in cross-equation testing to investigate the relative impact of various revenue and cost factors on the profit of container shipping via the NEP for the different shipping modes and ice ship classes. The study finds that the impacts of the various cost factors considered in the analysis indeed differ greatly across different shipping modes and different ice classes of container ships. The direct mode has a greater profit space than the transshipment mode and the Arc4 class ship has higher profitability than the Arc7 class ship under reasonable assumptions. Moreover, when the container freight rate of the NEP increases by 60% on basis of that of the traditional routes, shipping via the NEP will be profitable.

A techno-economic environmental cost model for Arctic shipping

• A techno-economic approach is deployed to capture the complexity of Arctic voyages. • Under stricter policy scenarios, operations are still viable for Handymax tankers. • Under the above scenario a green ammonia/fuel cell combination is selected. • Implicit damage costs must be accounted for to aid in effective policy design. The purpose of this article is to provide a case for advancing methods in Arctic shipping towards a more complete approach. A methods assessment was used to identify core concepts in Arctic shipping and to develop a modelling approach that integrates together policy, alternative fuels, emissions and microeconomic theory - enabling the exploration of financial and implicit damage costs, opportunities and environmental risks within Arctic shipping. The integration of these paradigms can lead to more detailed insights into the economic feasibility of Arctic routes under different policy scenarios. The results indicate that by 2035 under both a business as usual and an Arctic zero emission ECA policy scenario, combined Arctic-Suez transits becomes financially viable for a Handymax wet bulker with a moderate ice class. By 2050 the transpolar route becomes accessible for 5 months for these vessels. The results also show that implicit damage costs cannot be overlooked and that it is possible to advance towards more holistic methods for assessing economic and environmental risks and opportunities in Arctic shipping. Through the incorporation of these factors, this framework can be used to assist policymakers with maximising societal welfare.

Модели для прогнозирования параметров рейсов судов в Арктике: существующие подходы и возможные пути развития

Any information support system for Arctic shipping requires a ship transit model as one of the key elements that allows for strategic analysis, operational planning of vessel voyages, and ice routing of a ship. At the same time, there is no single recognized approach to develop such a model, due to the complexity of ice cover in terms of its impact on shipping. In this article, we have identified and analyzed three principal approaches to predict the parameters of vessel voyages in the Arctic. They are (1) semi-empirical models to estimate the vessel resistance in ice and then calculate propulsion performance, (2) numerical methods to model ship-ice interaction and calculate ice resistance, (3) statistical models to assess the ship speed based on regression equations or neural networks. Analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach allowed us to propose a concept to develop the ship transit model for practical application.

A knowledge elicitation study to inform the development of a consequence model for Arctic ship evacuations: qualitative and quantitative data

A knowledge elicitation study to inform the development of a consequence model for Arctic ship evacuations: qualitative and quantitative data

Comparing the minimal costs of Arctic container shipping between China and Europe: A network schemes perspective

To optimize the container liner shipping scheme between China and Europe as the possibility of Arctic shipping opens up, the operational behaviors of liner shipping companies are considered and potential shipping scheme are proposed. Fulfilling known port container OD flows, a model is built to optimize the liner shipping network corresponding to each proposed shipping scheme, where a single fleet or two fleets pass the Arctic or the Suez Canal. The profits of the liner company in the next 20 years under different schemes are compared. It is found that it is uneconomic to sail the Arctic for liner shipping between China and Europe and the Suez Canal Route is a better choice at present and far into the future.

Management of environmental streaming data to optimize Arctic shipping routes

Dynamic accurate predictions of Arctic sea ice, ocean, atmosphere, and ecosystem are necessary for safe and efficient Arctic maritime transportation; however a related technical roadmap has not yet been established. In this paper, we propose a management system for trans-Arctic maritime transportation supported by near real-time streaming data from air-space-ground-sea integrated monitoring networks and high spatio-temporal sea ice modeling. As the core algorithm of integrated monitoring networks, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is embedded to improve Arctic sea ice mapping algorithms. Since the LSTM is localized in time and space, it can make full use of streaming data characteristics. The sea ice–related parameters from satellite remote sensing raw data are used as the input of the LSTM, while streaming data from shipborne radar networks and/or buoy measurements are used as training datasets to enhance the accuracy and resolution of environmental streaming data from outputs of LSTM. Due to large size of streaming data, the proposed management system of trans-Arctic shipping should be built on a cloud distribution platform using existing wireless communications networks among vessels and ports. Our management system will be used by the ongoing European Commission Horizon 2020 Programme “ePIcenter.”

Autonomous ships for container shipping in the Arctic routes

This study investigates the competitiveness of various autonomous ship categories for container shipping in the Arctic route. We propose a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework using four ship categories as alternatives and eight criteria for competitiveness evaluation. We analyse collected data using the Best–Worst Method (BWM), one of the recently developed MCDM methods. The findings reveal that operating expenses, navigation aspects, and environmental protection are the three most important criteria for deploying autonomous ships in the Arctic route. Among the three investigated autonomous ships alternatives, the semi-autonomous ship operated from a shore control centre (SCC) is prioritized for Arctic shipping in the foreseeable future, when benchmarked against the conventional ship. The SCC-controlled semi-autonomous ship alternative is competitive in the majority of the considered criteria including operating expenses, capital expenses, navigation, ship-shore and ship–ship communication, search and rescue, and environmental protection.

Systemic risk of cruise ship incidents from an Arctic and insurance perspective

Easier accessibility and demand for so-called last chance tourism has contributed to rapid growth in Arctic cruise ship tourism. Arctic cruising brings many benefits to remote coastal communities but also presents an array of risks. In the light of this context, this article explores the concept of systemic risk of cruise ship incidents in general, findings which are then placed in an Arctic context and consideration given of the role the insurance sector may play in addressing cruise ship incidents. The study is based on metadata, both from academic and nonacademic sources. Findings are drawn from 11 global case studies of cruise ship incidents, 5 of which are polar examples. In the worst-case scenario, an array of serious economic, business, environmental, sociocultural, and security impacts may unfold in the Arctic, presenting risks that may be considerably worse than in other parts of the world. Arctic-specific challenges include extreme weather conditions and the presence of sea-ice, navigation and communication conditions, and lack of infrastructure (port facilities, Search and Rescue capabilities). Significant knowledge gaps across the Arctic have been identified, for example, in terms of seabed mapping, how to deal with industry-related activities, and the risks and nature of environmental change. When cruise ship risks in the Arctic are considered, both passenger and shipowner risk need to be accounted for, including Search and Rescue cover. Although data are limited, there is evidence that the sociocultural risks of an Arctic cruise ship incident are insufficiently addressed, either via insurance mechanisms or cross-border, navigational safety guidelines such as the Polar Code. The academic contribution of the study is the systemic scale of the analysis, and the practical and political implications are to lay the foundation for solution discussion that is of relevance in an Arctic and insurance context.

A Multiperiod Model for Assessing the Socioeconomic Impacts of Oil Spills during Arctic Shipping.

As the rate of ice melt in the Arctic increases, the potential for shipping activities is also increasing.However, infrastructure along the northwest passage (NWP) in Canada's Arctic is almost nonexistent. This presents major challenges to any response efforts in the case of a natural disaster. Also, the Arctic is home to many indigenous communities, as well as flora and fauna. Thus, it is of vital importance to protect the livelihood of the rights holders in this area and the Arctic marine environment. To do this, it is necessary to develop a decision-making tool to assess the potential risk of pollutants arising from increased shipping activity. Understanding such, this article assesses the impacts of a potential oil spill on communities in the Canadian Arctic. The consequences of risk are presented using a multiperiod model while the likelihood is analyzed using Bayesian Network. The output of the multiperiod model is incorporated into an influence diagram for risk assessment purposes. The Bayesian model benefits from expert elicitation from the crew aboard a research ship passing through the NWP. Information was also obtained from marine insurance companies, government representatives, and other Arctic specialized professionals. The risk-based model is subsequently applied to the Canadian Arctic area, with the aim of evaluating the impact of a potential oil spill through shipping.

Assessment of forest-based biofuels for Arctic marine shipping

International shipping in the Arctic region is one of the key contributors to changes in the region due to the generated air emissions from marine fuels combustion, usage of forest-based biofuels as an alternative to conventional fossil fuels in marine shipping seem as an attractive alternative. However, a system analysis perspective is needed to ensure its sustainability.Life cycle assessment was used to estimate the environmental impacts of the production and use of two forest-based biofuels. These fuels, biodiesel and bioethanol, were derived from pulp and paper mills for use by marine shipping. They were compared to fossil fuels currently used by the marine shipping industry, those being Marine Gas Oil (MGO) and Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO). Future projection scenarios in 2030 and 2050 for estimating the environmental impacts of a transition from fossil fuels to biofuels in Arctic shipping were studied as well.The results indicate that a holistic view is very important for biofuel use. The production and use of forest-based bioethanol (BE) had a significantly lower impact on climate change (CC) potential, but had a higher impact on Human toxicity non-cancer effects (HTX), Human toxicity cancer effects (CE), Particulate matter (PM), Photochemical ozone formation (POF), Acidification potential (AP), Terrestrial eutrophication (TE), Freshwater Eutrophication (FE), Marine eutrophication (ME) and Freshwater Ecotoxicity (FEC). Replacing HFO with forest-based biodiesel reduced the potential AP by 55%. It also had a lower impact on the categories CC, PM, POF, TE, ME and FEC. Furthermore, a reduction in emissions generated by shipping in the Arctic and a better overall environmental performance can be achieved by using blends of MGO with BE.

Ship resistance when operating in floating ice floes: Derivation, validation, and application of an empirical equation

With the effects of global warming, the Arctic is presenting a new environment where numerous ice floes are floating on the open sea surface. Whilst this has improved Arctic shipping navigability in an unprecedented way, the interaction of such floes with ships is yet to be understood to aid the designing of ships and route planning for this region. To further explore this topic, the present work develops a procedure to derive an empirical equation that can predict the effects of such floes on ship resistance. Based on a validated computational approach, extensive data are extracted from simulations of three different ships with varying operational and environmental conditions. The ice-floe resistance is shown to strongly correlate with ship beam, ship buttock angle, ship waterline angle, ship speed, ice concentration, ice thickness and floe diameter, and the regression powers of each of the parameters on resistance are ascertained. This leads to a generic empirical equation that can swiftly predict ice-floe resistance for a given ship in a given condition. Subsequently, demonstrations are given on the incorporation of the derived equation into a set of real-time Arctic ship performance model and voyage planning tool, which can predict a ship's fuel consumption in ice-infested seas and dynamically suggest a route with the least safety concern and fuel consumption. Moreover, the equation is validated by providing ice resistance prediction for experimental and full-scale conditions from multiple sources, showing high accuracy. In conclusion, the empirical equation is shown to give valid and rapid estimates for ice-floe resistance, providing valuable insights into ship designs for the region, as well as facilitating practical applications for polar navigation.

Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales

Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales

Digitalization of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route

The proportion of scientific papers devoted to studying and scientifically substantiating climate change and ice melting in northern latitudes has been steadily increasing in recent years. Of particular interest to our country are researches studying climate change in the Arctic and the consequences of these changes. One of the effects of climate change is the retreat of Arctic ice to the North. Thereby, it becomes possible to more effectively use the Northern Sea Route. The Northern Sea Route is very promising both economically and strategically. Therefore, its development and active use is an important task for the state. However, there are a large variety of obstacles and problems related to the effective development of the Northern Sea Route. One of the most important is the underdevelopment of transport and logistics infrastructure, as well as insufficient digitalization of the basic services required for safe navigation in the difficult conditions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. In this context, the digitalization of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route is an urgent task. The aim of the study is to develop approaches, methods and tools to ensure the digital transformation of Arctic shipping. Such infrastructure elements as Arctic ports, as well as services for ice and pilotage of vessels are considered separately. As the main research methods, we selected system analysis, conceptual modeling, ontological modeling and engineering. Two ontologies are presented as scientific and practical results obtained in the work: the ontology of the Arctic seaports of Russia and the ontology of shipping support in the waters of the Northern Sea Route. The paper also considers several promising directions for the development of the results obtained. One of these directions is related to the digitization of the most important components of the transport and logistics system for shipping along the northern coasts of the Russian Federation. This will provide better access to maritime transport infrastructure along the Arctic routes through the use of a single digital platform. We believe that the development of knowledge-based decision-making systems and machine learning approaches for maritime logistics management in the Arctic is a promising area for further research.

Сотрудничество России и КНР в сфере арктического судоходства: состояние и перспективы

The article analyzes the cooperation between China and Russia in the field of Arctic shipping. The author compares the tasks of the Northern Sea Route development and the Ice Silk Road construction. This allows identifying the factors that promote and hinder cooperation. The author examines the specifics of the Sino-Russian format of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction that helps to mitigate contradictions between the national interests of the two states. The author examines the current cooperation between Russia and China in the field of Arctic shipping, identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in key areas of interaction (SWOT analysis). The author concludes that differences between interests and status of the two states in the Arctic provides Russia a strategic advantage in its relations with the PRC. This balance may be maintained within the framework of a multilateral cooperation. At the same time, cooperation with China in the field of marine security is promising in case of keeping existing power balance. In conclusion, the author suggests areas for cooperation to increase the effectiveness of bilateral interaction in the field of Arctic shipping.

The propagation of sustainable fishery by Arctic shipping route stakeholders

This research addresses the question of how to better disseminate the concept of sustainable fishery along the Arctic shipping route. The fishery trade network of Arctic is constructed and the complex network theory is applied to conduct the analysis. We further simulate the network by introducing three factors, namely, national will, knowledge absorption capacity and initial propagation node and applying the SIR (susceptible–infective-removed) model. It is found that, in order to disseminate the sustainable fishery concept in the Arctic shipping route, there is a need for countries to increase their national will, increase their capacity to absorb knowledge, and give full play to the role of high-node countries. This paper theoretically suggests three countries of Norway, Denmark, and China to act as initiators of the network and proposes possible measures that countries can take to cooperate on sustainable fisheries development. Our findings offer a useful reference on international arctic fishery cooperation.

China's impact on the European Union's Arctic policy: critical junctures, crossovers, and geographic shifts.

In 2008, the European Commission perceived the European Union (EU) in an excellent position to collaborate with the five Euro-Arctic states and its strategic partners Canada, Russia, and the USA to shape Arctic governance in the fast-changing environment. However, the Arctic coastal states rejected the EU’s multilateral governance approach, while China has emerged as a significant factor in the Arctic. In 2018, China announced the Polar Silk Road to connect East Asia with Europe via Arctic shipping and other connectivity projects. In 2019, the EU started to perceive China as a systemic rival concerning the Belt and Road Initiative. What is the impact of China on the EU’s Arctic policies in the Euro-Arctic environment? What are the prospects for collaboration between the EU and China on joint issues? This paper applies process tracing to analyse China’s and the EU’s Arctic socialization in the early twenty-first century at three critical junctures of Arctic politics. At these junctures, the paper introduces the Arctic situation and the emerging problems, development in agenda setting, the policy processes, and the outcomes of the EU’s and China’s Arctic approaches. It argues that China’s rise as a maritime and Arctic power and its close relations with Russia along the Northern Sea Route shaped the EU’s Arctic policies and their shift towards the Barents sub-Arctic region. Implications are more interaction among both there, as China’s Polar Silk Road might also challenge the EU’s regulatory approach in the Euro-Arctic.

Consequence modelling for Arctic ship evacuations using expert knowledge

Risk-based decision-making is central to the development of Arctic shipping policy and regulation. Policy-makers within the International Maritime Organization rely on the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology to evaluate proposed regulatory changes and Arctic ship operators rely on it to establish operating limits and procedures. The FSA recommends incorporating life-safety consequence in the assessment of maritime industry risk. This paper presents an expert-based assessment of the factors that influence the potential for loss of life during an Arctic ship evacuation and quantified consequence severities for a range of evacuation scenarios. A two-phased mixed methods design is used to elicit expert knowledge. Sixteen experts in the fields of Arctic seafaring, policy and regulation, academia and research, and ship design participated in the study. Semi-structured interviews elicited perspectives on the factors that influence the expected number of fatalities resulting from an evacuation in Arctic waters. Surveys were administered in which evacuation scenarios were rated for the level of life-safety consequence severity they pose. This study provides a scenario-based life-safety consequence model for Arctic ship evacuations. Results show evacuation of passenger vessels poses the highest consequence severity of evaluated ship types. Response time and the time available to evacuate have the greatest levels of influence on consequence severity. Implications for Arctic marine policy include the need for enhanced competency and training for Arctic ship crews and SAR services, continued research and development of Arctic life-saving appliances to satisfy Polar Code functional requirements, heightened regulatory oversight of Arctic cruise operations, and consideration of inclusion of fishing vessels under the Polar Code. Application of the results to the FSA methodology is discussed.

The impact of black carbon emissions from projected Arctic shipping on regional ice transport

The impact of black carbon emissions from projected Arctic shipping on regional ice transport