Arctic Shipping Routes Research Articles

Physics-informed deep convolutional network for combined sea ice concentration and velocity prediction

Accurate prediction of short-term fluctuations in Arctic sea ice is important for safe use of Arctic shipping routes. While deep-learning models can improve the accuracy of sea-ice predictions, the accuracy and predictability of short-term sea-ice conditions are limited in most purely data-driven deep-learning models that consider a single aspect of sea ice, without considering the physical variation law between several sea ice factors. We propose dual-task prediction models for sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice velocity (SIV), and incorporate a loss function that simultaneously addresses dynamic constraints of SIC and SIV into each model, based on dynamics terms in the sea ice control equation. Comparative experiments are performed to determine which model structure best performs at predicting SIC and SIV. We report a dual-task branching structure to be more suitable for predicting SIC and SIV, and a post-decoder branch network structure to best predict SIC and SIV. Adding a sea ice dynamics equation to the loss function improves the model fit with dynamics law, improving the predictability and prediction accuracy of SIC and SIV.

Exploring the Use of Fengyun-3 Meteorological Satellite for Monitoring Sea Ice to Provide Services for Polar Navigation

This paper explores the feasibility and effectiveness of using the Fengyun-3 meteorological satellite to monitor sea ice, providing services for ships navigating in polar regions. Firstly, it analyzes the impact of Arctic sea ice changes on ship navigation and the importance of sea ice monitoring in route planning. Next, it provides a detailed introduction to the data sources and processing methods of the Fengyun-3 satellite, including radiometric calibration, geometric correction, image registration, and cropping. Subsequently, it discusses the characteristics of sea ice in the visible spectrum and successfully extracts sea ice information using MERSI-II data with land, cloud, and seawater masking techniques. The study indicates that the comprehensive use of multi-spectral data and other observation methods can significantly enhance sea ice monitoring capabilities. In the future, integrating more advanced technologies is expected to achieve refined identification and short-term prediction of sea ice movement, thereby providing more scientific and efficient support for ships navigating in polar regions, enhancing navigation safety and efficiency, and offering a scientific basis for the development of Arctic shipping routes.

Identifying key safety investments needed for arctic shipping via a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) approach

ABSTRACT The retreating ice coverage and reduced (ice) thickness scientifically recorded in the wider Arctic region, during the last few decades, are transforming it into a more accessible operating environment. Vessels engaged in maritime transport activities can now navigate the already established routes for more extended periods each year. With this background, Arctic shipping routes have attracted the interest of academics and maritime stakeholders because of the potential distance reduction compared to other existing (and often viewed as) conventional routes utilizing the Suez and Panama Canals today. However, the existing Arctic shipping environment requires specific future safety investments. This paper intends to provide input towards better-informed decision-making and identification of priority investments needed to improve the level of safety related to the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP). A multi-attribute decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank the various proposed safety investments. The results indicate that “infrastructure and facility” should come first, followed by “personnel,” “technology,” “measure,” and “management” investments. Ice monitoring and weather forecasting, strengthening Arctic seafaring expertise, and icebreakers stand out as the top three most important future investments required in the region.

Projected changes to Arctic shipping routes after stratospheric aerosol deployment in the ARISE-SAI scenarios

Projected changes to Arctic shipping routes after stratospheric aerosol deployment in the ARISE-SAI scenarios

Problems of the management of habitat monitoring in settlements (ports) of the Northern Sea Route

Introduction. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the main Arctic shipping route in the Russian Federation. As part of the development of Arctic infrastructure, the state and private investors have launched large-scale work on the development of Arctic ports. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the current monitoring system for the state of atmospheric air, soil, and drinking water in the territory of settlements (ports) in the Northern Sea Route. Materials and methods. Official data from environmental pollution monitoring by (Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) and social and hygienic monitoring by Federal Service for Supervision in Protection of the Rights of Consumer and Man Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) in twelve settlements and ports in the Northern Sea Route were used. An electronic database has been created. The analysis was carried out using MS Office Excel, visualization of the location of monitoring points – ESRI ArcGIS 9.3 Results. The conducted research has shown heterogeneity in the management of monitoring of environmental factors of the population living in settlements (ports) of the NSR. The largest monitoring coverage is typical for settlements in the North-West – primarily the cities of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, where the largest number of posts are located and all environments are monitored – atmospheric air, soil of populated areas and drinking water. There is practically no monitoring of the habitat in the village of Sabetta, Dudinka. In the village. Dixon habitat monitoring is not carried out. Atmospheric air, the quality of which is especially important for territories with developed port infrastructure, is controlled only in 5 out of 12 settlements (ports) of the NSR. Limitations. The research had no limitations. Conclusion. The need to optimize the monitoring system was noted. As measures, it is recommended to manage monitoring of atmospheric air, drinking water, and soil in the village. Dixon; atmospheric air and soil in the village. Sabetta and Dudinka; atmospheric air in Beringovsky village, Igarka, Providence village; soil in Tiksi village. It is necessary to expand the list of controlled indices in atmospheric air, drinking water and soil, as well as increase the frequency of sampling.

Projection of a winter ice-free Barents-Kara Sea by CMIP6 models with the CCHZ-DISO method

The winter sea ice over the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) is reducing at an alarming rate, which impacts the Arctic shipping routes and the local ecosystems as well as the climate system across other regions. Consequently, it is imperative to project the winter ice-free state in this region to adequately prepare for future climate change and its impacts. However, most models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) show higher climatological values, weaker decreasing trends, and lower interannual variabilities in winter BKS sea ice concentration compared to observation. Additionally, it can be also seen that there exist great uncertainties in the projections of different models on whether the BKS region will be ice-free in future winters and the ice-free period, which spans almost the entire 21st century. Therefore, the study adopts two approaches developed from distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO) method to project the winter ice-free period of the BKS under different emission scenarios. The results indicate that under SSP1–2.6, the winter BKS will not be ice-free by 2100. For SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5, the winter BKS is projected to be ice-free during 2076–2086, 2063–2068, and 2049–2061, respectively. By employing the DISO method, the projection uncertainty is reduced and the results highlight the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to delay the winter ice-free period over the BKS. These projections are intended to provide a reference for policymakers.

Ships are projected to navigate whole year-round along the North Sea route by 2100

In the context of global warming, the Arctic sea ice is rapidly receding, and the possibility of navigating the Arctic shipping route continues to increase. Here we combine climate and ship navigability data and use low and medium emission scenarios to analyze sea ice conditions and navigability from 2023 to 2100, focusing on Polar Class 7 and open water vessels. The results show that sea ice motion deteriorates the navigability. Polar Class 7 ships will be able to sail the Arctic passages throughout all seasons except for the spring of 2065, while there is a comparative advantage of the Northern Sea Route for open-water ships. The optimal shipping routes of Polar Class 7 ships from 2065 to 2100 are more distributed toward the Central Arctic. These could considerably reshape the patterns of global shipping networks and international trade among Asia, Europe, and America.

Projected navigability of Arctic shipping routes based on climate model FIO-ESM v2.1

As Arctic sea ice has rapidly declined, the navigational potential of the Arctic routes has greatly increased. Based on sea ice output from the First Institute Of Oceanography-Earth System Model version 2.1 (FIO-ESM v2.1) and the Arctic Transport Accessibility Model, this study investigates the future navigability of the Arctic routes for open-water ships (OW) without icebreaking capabilities and ships with different icebreaking capabilities, namely Polar Class 7 (PC7), Polar Class 6 (PC6), and Polar Class 3 (PC3). The results show that the simulations of FIO-ESM v2.1 adequately reproduce the changes in the navigability of the four types of ships in Arctic shipping routes over the past 40 years. The navigable area for the four ship types is projected to continue to expand in the future. Under the high emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5, SSP585), the four ship types are projected to achieve full Arctic navigability in summer (September) by the end of the 21st century, and PC6 and PC3 ships are projected to achieve full Arctic navigability in winter (March). Under the high emission scenario, year-round navigability in the Northwest Passage is projected for PC3 and PC6 ships, and in the Northeast Passage is projected for all four types of ships. The impact of emission scenario on the navigability of the Arctic shipping routes varies with different ship types: the largest impact is for OW ships, followed by PC6 and PC7 ships, and the smallest impact is for PC3 ships. The impact of scenario is also larger in winter than in summer.

Evaluation of navigation capacity in the Northeast Arctic passage: evidence from multiple factors

ABSTRACT Arctic ice is melting away as a result of global warming, making possible the further commercial exploitations of the Arctic shipping routes, both to satisfy the shipping demand and to avoid the growing Somali piracy. In this research, the hierarchical regression is utilized to examine the impact of natural and economic factors on the Northeast Arctic Route (NER) through sample data on cargo volume from 2011 to 2021. From the results, the natural factors related to sea ice have a negative impact on the navigability of the NER, whereas economic factors and sea ice melting periods have a positive impact. Additionally, all variables are standardized to compare their respective significances on the cargo volume. Furthermore, Russian energy exports have a greater impact on shipping capacity than other variables, followed by the number of ship transits. Finally, the interrupted time-series analysis is introduced to find that the project of Yamal liquefied natural gas (LNG) has a positive effect on the NER, which could not offset the side effect of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Assessing the impact of Arctic shipping routes on the global container shipping network’s connectivity

ABSTRACT Amidst the intensifying impact of climate change, the extension of navigable periods along Arctic Shipping Routes (ASRs) has garnered attention as a maritime route for container vessels. The urgency to comprehend the reverberations of ASRs on the global container shipping network (GCSN) led to the development of the Latitudinal Centrality Index (LCI), which integrates latitude and centrality in maritime analysis. This index evaluates ASRs’ influence across 968 port nodes within the GCSN. By exploring scenarios encompassing seasonal fluctuations over the years, this study delves into the sway of ASRs compared to a benchmark state devoid of ASR engagement. The study’s revelations highlight a discovery: the assimilation of ASRs augments interconnectivity, or resilience, within the GCSN. The GCSN thrives as a cohesive and adaptable entity upon full integration of ASRs, indicating a promising trajectory for global container shipping.

Analysis of Diffusion Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Particulate Matter in Ship Exhaust Plume in Arctic Environment Based on CFD

The gradual opening of the Arctic shipping route has made navigation possible. However, the harm caused by ship exhaust emissions is increasingly severe. Therefore, it is necessary to study the diffusion characteristics of ship exhaust plumes during Arctic navigation. The study focuses on a merchant vessel as the subject of investigation, employing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation techniques to analyze the diffusion characteristics of particulate matter (PM) within ship exhaust plumes under Arctic environmental conditions. The diffusion law of ship exhaust plume PM is clarified, and the influence of three factors, synthetic wind speed, yaw angle and chimney angle, on the PM diffusion is analyzed. It was found that after the PM was discharged from the chimney, the majority of the PM dispersed directly backward along with the external flow field, while a minor fraction lingered at the stern of the ship for an extended period before eventually diffusing backward. Among them, 1235 particles were captured within a range of 200 m from the stern, with a capture rate of 0.6%. When the synthetic wind shows a yaw angle, the capture rate of PM in the interval increases rapidly with the increase of yaw angle, while other factors have less influence on the capture rate of PM. This study provides foundational guidance for predicting PM diffusion from ship exhaust plumes in Arctic environments, thereby enabling more effective strategies for managing such emissions.

Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065

ABSTRACT The Northeast Passage (NEP) holds immense potential as a link for maritime transport activities between Europe and Asia, primarily due to the extended sailing season resulting from global warming. However, the economic viability of the Arctic shipping route remains disputed. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the feasibility of container transportation along the NEP compared to that along the Suez Canal Route (SCR) by using current (2021–2023) and future (2025–2065) scenarios. The results reveal that larger vessels have lower CO2 emissions and costs than small vessels in the NEP, but the costs for larger vessels in the NEP are still higher than those in the SCR throughout both summer and winter seasons under the current scenario. The outcomes also show that a progressive carbon tax scheme will increase the unit shipping costs for all routes in the future scenario, with the NEP being most economically viable during summer. Furthermore, the extended navigable period (NP) bolsters the NEP’s economic cost advantage during a seasonal period. Nevertheless, from a year-round operations standpoint, the NEP remains less competitive than the SCR before 2065. The conclusions drawn from this research serve as a significant resource for decision-makers when formulating operational plans.

Soundscape characterization in the Central Arctic Ocean ecosystem (Svalbard) using acoustic indices

An increasingly warmer, less frozen Arctic is opening further to vessel traffic, transforming dominant ambient noise sources in the underwater soundscape. Chief sources may be shifting from wind to ship noise. Collecting data that help explain the changing composition of the soundscape may offer insights to guide regulation of noise in the ocean, furthering management and conservation efforts. Hydrophones connected to field recorders were used in this study to characterize the soundscape and to study marine mammal presence and ship noise. Hydrophones were deployed at 44 locations from a 13.8 m Ovni 445 sailing vessel between 9° E and 19° E and 69° N and 80° N in April 2023. Acoustic indices were utilized to assess soundscape composition. Vessel locations were confirmed using Automatic Identification System (AIS) marine traffic data. Wind, waves, and ice (geophony) dominated the soundscape’s acoustic signature in remote locations, while human-caused sounds (anthrophony) were significant near Arctic shipping routes, fishing areas, and in fjords. Marine mammal vocalizations were detected near the ice edge, at fjord mouths, and in fjords. This acoustic characterization study provides a glimpse into the sonic sources and balance of sounds in the soundscape at present, essential data as the region rapidly transforms.

Environmental Risk Analysis of Different Segments of The Arctic Northeast Route

There are huge differences in the sea ice conditions, climate and environment, geographical conditions and communication conditions in the Arctic waters, and the equipment and navigation requirements of ships are also different. In order to ensure the safety and success of the ships, through the route, this paper using fuzzy level analysis (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, FAHP), build the northeast arctic route risk evaluation index system, targeted analysis of different segments, the results show that: (1) although the sea risk point is different but the natural environment risk has a significant impact on the arctic waters.(2) The risk coefficient of Arctic route is higher than that of traditional ordinary routes. Among the five sea areas in this study, Chukchi Sea is the highest, followed by East Belia Sea. The crew need to pay more attention when sailing.(3) The research in this paper can provide a reference for the navigation safety of the northeast Arctic shipping route.

A Multi-Task Network With Dynamic Segmentation for Sea Ice Classification in Arctic Shipping Route Optimization

A Multi-Task Network With Dynamic Segmentation for Sea Ice Classification in Arctic Shipping Route Optimization

Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century

Sea ice concentration and thickness are key parameters for Arctic shipping routes and navigable potential. This study focuses on the changes in shipping routes and the estimation of navigable potential in the Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route during 2021–2050 based on the sea ice data predicted by eight CMIP6 models. The Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness vary among the eight models, but all indicate a declining trend. This study indicates that, under the two scenarios, the least-cost route will migrate more rapidly from the low-latitude route to the high-latitude route in the next 30 years, showing that the Transpolar Sea Route will be navigable for Open Water (OW) and Polar Class 6 (PC6) before 2025, which is advanced by nearly 10 years compared to previous studies. The sailing time will decrease to 16 and 13 days for OW and PC6 by 2050, which saves 3 days compared to previous studies. For OW, the navigable season is mainly from August to October, and the Northern Sea Route is still the main route, while for PC6, the navigable season is mainly from July to January of the following year, and the Transpolar Sea Route will become one of the important choices.

Prevention and control of ship-source pollution in the Arctic shipping routes: challenges and countermeasures

Ship-source pollution is one of the important contributors to marine environment pollution. Because the legal status of the Arctic shipping routes is not clear, there is a considerable degree of dispute in the application of the rules on the prevention and control of ship-source pollution. The increased melting of sea ice undermines the legal legitimacy of the “ice-covered areas” clause under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The conflict between the application of the Polar Code and “ice-covered areas” will also reach an initial conclusion in the context of melting sea ice. However, the inadequacy of ship-source pollution rules in the Polar Code hampers its application, which has led to a negative impact on the more active role in the governance of pollution from Arctic shipping. For replying to the Challenges in the prevention of ship-source pollution in Arctic shipping routes, the relevant rules of the Polar Code need to be further improved, while a more binding HFO ban according to ship types needs to be applied. Therefore, a more important role in the future Arctic governance mechanism will be played by the enhanced enforcement of the Polar Code, meanwhile, the target for uniform international regulation of preventing and controlling ship-source pollution in Arctic shipping routes should be achieved.

Sustainability Implications of the Arctic Shipping Route for Shanghai Port Logistics in the Post-Pandemic Era

Amidst the transformation of logistics dynamics due to the global pandemic, the attention directed toward the effects of the Arctic shipping route on Shanghai Port has intensified. This study thoroughly investigates the incorporation of the Arctic shipping route into Shanghai Port logistics, with a dedicated focus on sustainability implications in the post-pandemic era. Leveraging both gravity models and stochastic frontier gravity models, we meticulously analyze the multifaceted opportunities and challenges stemming from this integration, highlighting the pivotal roles of economic growth and geographical proximity. The empirical analysis, spanning the years 2010 to 2021, provides compelling evidence of the Arctic shipping route’s positive effects on the logistical operations of Shanghai Port. The analysis highlights its potential to substantially enhance trade volumes, streamline logistical efficiency, and broaden transit options. Additionally, our assessment of the post-pandemic challenges and opportunities faced by Shanghai Port underscores its adaptability and resilience in the constantly shifting trade milieu. Overall, this study makes significant contributions by offering a comprehensive perspective on the complex interplay between economic, geographical, and external factors. The insights provided here serve as invaluable guidance for policymakers, trade analysts, and businesses that are navigating the intricacies of the contemporary global trade environment. Our findings aim to foster sustainable and resilient trade relationships, facilitating the development of port logistics in the post-pandemic era.

A mixed integer programming approach to improve oil spill response resource allocation in the Canadian arctic

Determining proper locations to establish emergency response facilities is a critical strategic element of pollution preparedness and response planning for oil spills in remote areas. Many location-allocation models are available in the literature, but Arctic contexts such as remoteness and environmental sensitivities are still inadequately investigated while building optimization models. A Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) based optimization model is developed to devise a location-allocation problem: maximizing weighted spill coverage considering spill size, environmental sensitivity, and response time. Strategic decisions - e.g. allocation of stockpiling resources to resource stations and which response stations to open - are incorporated into the model as decision variables. Input parameters of the model are estimated using numerical and geospatial data of potential oil spills and response stations. The model is illustrated for hypothetical oil spill scenarios in the Canadian Arctic. The model provides optimal allocation of resources and recommends best-suited locations to build response facilities. Data visualization tools including Network Diagrams and sensitivity analysis on different model configurations, show the adequacy of the proposed mathematical modelling approach to solve the given problem. Multiple facility locations have been compared to cover all possible oil spills along Arctic shipping routes, further revealing a few better locations considering realistic constraints. Decision makers can use such optimization modelling information – e.g., how many stations to build in the Arctic to adequately cover potential oil spills – to aid strategic decision-making of maritime shipping.

Influence of the Thermal Structure on the Intensification of the Extreme Arctic Cyclone in August 2016

AbstractAs one of the most dangerous weather systems affecting the Arctic region, Arctic cyclones (ACs) significantly affect Arctic shipping routes and navigation safety. This study investigates the evolution and structure characteristics of an extreme AC in August 2016 (AC16) based on the Arctic System Reanalysis version 2 (ASRv2) data set. The key factors affecting the development of AC16 are revealed by diagnosing the pressure tendency equation (PTE), with focus on the influence of thermal structure during two rapid intensification stages. It is found that PTE‐diagnosed results can well reproduce the evolution of AC16. The air‐column virtual temperature change is the decisive contributor decreasing the surface pressure and thus intensifying AC16, while the change in geopotential at upper boundary and the mass change caused by evaporation and precipitation have less effect. Further analysis indicates that at the initial rapid intensification stage, the middle‐lower‐level diabatic heating probably related to condensation latent heat and the upper‐level warm advection influenced by tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) have crucial effects on the air‐column warming, which leads to the AC16 rapid intensification initially. At the secondary rapid intensification stage, the upper‐level warm advection affected by TPVs further increases the air‐column virtual temperature, which is the dominant contributor to the AC16 secondary drastic intensification.