Arctic Passage Research Articles

Analysis of Dynamic Changes in Sea Ice Concentration in Northeast Passage during Navigation Period

With global warming and the gradual melting of Arctic sea ice, the navigation duration of the Northeast Passage (NEP) is gradually increasing. The dynamic changes in sea ice concentration (SIC) during navigation time are a critical factor affecting the navigation of the passage. This study uses multiple linear regression and random forest to analyze the navigation windows of the NEP from 1979 to 2022 and examines the critical factors affecting the dynamic changes in the SIC. The results suggest that there are 25 years of navigable windows from 1979 to 2022. The average start date of navigable windows is approximately between late July and early August, while the end date is approximately early and mid-October, with considerable variation in the duration of navigable windows. The explanatory power of RF is significantly better than MLR, while LMG is better at identifying extreme events, and RF is more suitable for assessing the combined effects of all variables on the sea ice concentration. This study also found that the 2 m temperature is the main influencing factor, and the sea ice movement, sea level pressure and 10 m wind speed also play a role in a specific period. By integrating traditional statistical methods with machine learning techniques, this study reveals the dynamic changes of the SIC during the navigation period of the NEP and identifies its driving factors. This provides a scientific reference for the development and utilization of the Arctic Passage.

Evaluation of navigation capacity in the Northeast Arctic passage: evidence from multiple factors

ABSTRACT Arctic ice is melting away as a result of global warming, making possible the further commercial exploitations of the Arctic shipping routes, both to satisfy the shipping demand and to avoid the growing Somali piracy. In this research, the hierarchical regression is utilized to examine the impact of natural and economic factors on the Northeast Arctic Route (NER) through sample data on cargo volume from 2011 to 2021. From the results, the natural factors related to sea ice have a negative impact on the navigability of the NER, whereas economic factors and sea ice melting periods have a positive impact. Additionally, all variables are standardized to compare their respective significances on the cargo volume. Furthermore, Russian energy exports have a greater impact on shipping capacity than other variables, followed by the number of ship transits. Finally, the interrupted time-series analysis is introduced to find that the project of Yamal liquefied natural gas (LNG) has a positive effect on the NER, which could not offset the side effect of the COVID-19 epidemic.

The geopolitical environment impact of Arctic Passage on Eurasia: An analysis based on multi-factor geometric potential models

The geopolitical environment impact of Arctic Passage on Eurasia: An analysis based on multi-factor geometric potential models

Subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of arctic sea ice Using a Fully Coupled dynamical ensemble forecast system

With the opening of Arctic passage for maritime transportation under global warming, accurate prediction of Arctic sea ice (ASI) on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales becomes increasingly crucial for the economy and society but challenging. This study examined the S2S hindcast skills of monthly ASI during 1992–2019 using Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System, Finite-Volume version 2 (FGOALS-f2), a global coupled model that includes an interactive dynamical sea ice component. Firstly, the prediction system can accurately capture the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). Still, it slightly overestimates SIE in March–June and significantly underestimates SIE in August–December. Meanwhile, the declining trend of SIE is underestimated in predictions for all target seasons, particularly for spring. Secondly, relatively high skills with an average ACC of 0.44 are found in predicting monthly SIE anomalies (SIEA) after removing the long-term linear trend at a one-to-six-month lead. However, the one-to-six-month lead prediction skills in April drop significantly by 36% when the interdecadal variation is removed. We find that the variation of April SIEA after removing the linear trend is dominated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which can be better predicted than interannual variability ahead of subseasonal timescales. Unlike the SIE error-based metrics considered in previous studies, the one-to-three-month lead prediction in FGOALS-f2 shows significantly better performance in predicting the spatial distribution of September ASI for extreme years compared to normal years. Finally, the skill for predicting minimum SIEA in FGOALS-f2 is considerably higher at a three-to-six-month lead than anomaly persistence, indicating the advantage of this dynamical prediction system at a longer lead time.

Retrieval of Arctic Sea Ice Motion from FY-3D/MWRI Brightness Temperature Data

Sea ice motion (SIM) has significant implications for sea–air interactions, thermohaline circulation, and the development of the Arctic passage. This research proposes an improved SIM retrieval method from Fengyun-3D’s (FY-3D) microwave radiometer imager’s (MWRI) brightness temperature (Tb) data based on the modified classical maximum cross-correlation (MCC) method and the multisource data merging method. This study utilized buoy data to establish the search area range, applied distinct thresholds across various Arctic regions, and merged the buoy data, reanalysis wind data, and SIM retrieved from FY-3D/MWRI Tb data. In 2019, for the final Arctic SIM results retrieved from the MWRI 89 GHz and 36.5 GHz Tb data, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the mean average error (MAE) in the east–west direction were 2.07 cm/s and 1.38 cm/s and those in the north–south direction were 1.96 cm/s and 1.15 cm/s, compared to the ice-tethered profiler (ITP) data. Compared with the daily average data of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the RMSE and MAE of the SIM results obtained in this study were 0.74 cm/s and 0.93 cm/s in the east–west direction, and 0.56 cm/s and 0.72 cm/s in the north–south direction, respectively. The monthly average of the SIM retrieved from the MWRI Tb data in this research also showed a good agreement with the monthly average of the NSIDC SIM product. The comparison showed that the MWRI Tb data could be used to retrieve the Arctic SIM, and the Arctic SIM retrieval method presented in this paper was accurate and general.

Spatial match analysis of multiple factors in the geopolitical environment of the Arctic Passage.

This study seeks to provide a basic approach to fulfill the spatial visualization of geopolitical environmental factors required for the navigation of vessels in the Arctic. Multi-dimensional geopolitical environmental factors of the Arctic Passage are analyzed and classified into geopolitics, geoeconomics, geo-military, geoculture, and laws and regulations related to geography. Their characteristics are extracted to form an attribute information table matching spatial layers. Based on the information category and basic characteristics, the spatial match method is applied and connected with the spatial layers to examine the spatial point, polyline, and polygon. According to the qualitative description, the study extracted the quantitative indicators for the following spatial–temporal pattern analysis. The standard deviational ellipse is used to analyze the spatial–temporal patterns and trends of the geopolitical environmental indicators of the Arctic Passage in the Arctic and Northeast Asia. The expansion and contraction of geoinformation coexist in the countries surrounding the Arctic Passage. The spatial–temporal changes indicate that the Arctic channel has a great economic impact on the Nordic countries and Northeast Asia, especially the coastal areas of China and Japan. The characteristic extraction and spatial match of the geopolitical environment provide integrated Arctic geoinformation inquiry and services for the diplomatic, administrative, and legal preparations required for Arctic navigation. Therefore, the geospatial analysis conducted provides scientific support and a basis for the geographical distribution and developing trends of visualization and spatial–temporal pattern in Arctic navigation. The results of this research will help decision-makers to make a comprehensive judgment on governance related to the sustainable development of the Arctic Passage.

Research on navigation risk of the Arctic Northeast Passage based on POLARIS

AbstractThe complex sea ice conditions in Arctic waters has different impacts on the legs of the Arctic passage, and ships of specific ice classes face different navigation risks. Therefore, the quantitative analysis of the navigation risks faced in different legs has important practical significance. Based on the POLARIS introduced by IMO, the sea ice condition data from 2011 to 2020 was used to quantify the navigation risk of the Arctic Northeast passage. The risk index outcome (RIO) of the Arctic Northeast Passage were calculated. The navigable windows of the route for ice class 1A ships sailing independently under different sea ice conditions in the last decade were determined, with a navigable period of 91 days under normal sea ice conditions, approximately 175 days under light sea ice conditions and only week 40 close to navigation under severe sea ice conditions. The three critical waters affecting the safety of ships were identified. Combined with the navigable windows and critical waters, recommendations on ship's navigation and manipulation and recommendations for stakeholders were given. The method and results provided reference and support for the assessment of the navigation risk of ships in the Northeast Passage and safety navigation and operations of ships, and satisfied the needs of relevant countries and enterprises to rationally arrange shipment dates and sailing plans based on different ice classes of ships.

Assessing Geo-Setting and the Spatial Pattern of the Arctic Passage: A Multiple Factor Analysis

Assessing Geo-Setting and the Spatial Pattern of the Arctic Passage: A Multiple Factor Analysis

A multi-criteria decision model based on the evidential reasoning approach for the selection of fulcrum ports supporting Arctic shipping through the Northeast Passage

ABSTRACT As a result of the opening Arctic waters, Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) can be used as a shortcut between Asian and European ports, which may bring considerable economic benefits. Due to the harsh environment and substantial costs, it is difficult to construct many fulcrum ports along the Russian Arctic coast, which provide support services for ships navigating the NEP. A multi-criteria decision model is hence constructed to select fulcrum ports among candidates to support Arctic shipping through the NEP. Based on the model, the evidential reasoning (ER) approach is used to aggregate quantitative data and qualitative expert judgments to generate distributed assessments for candidate ports, as well as modeling uncertainties such as incompleteness and ignorance in the assessment of candidate ports. Their suitability as fulcrum ports are prioritized according to the utilities. The results show that Pevek, Sabetta, and Murmansk are the ideal fulcrum ports for the eastern, central, and western section, respectively, of the Russian Arctic coast. The associated policy recommendations include prioritizing the improvement of selected fulcrum ports, attaching importance to promising candidate ports, updating outdated infrastructure, and implementing more related projects. A sensitivity analysis conducted in this study validates the feasibility and reasonability of the proposed model.

Progress and prospect of research on the Arctic Passage based on CiteSpace

Progress and prospect of research on the Arctic Passage based on CiteSpace

Strategy of China’s investment in Arctic Passage development based on Stackelberg game theory

Strategy of China’s investment in Arctic Passage development based on Stackelberg game theory

The Svalbard archipelago: an exploratory analysis of port investment in the context of the new arctic routes

The Svalbard archipelago, located in the Arctic Ocean, is administered by Norway through the 1920 Svalbard Treaty. There is a dearth of research investigating Svalbard’s economic development and associated political challenges. Due to its strategic location, the increasing activities of oil/gas exploration development and the possibilities of new routes to and from Europe and Asia using the Arctic passage, Svalbard represent a new potential development area within a new efficient transport route. The aim of this paper is to investigate Svalbard’s port development strategy. We explore this in three steps: what currently exists at Svalbard in terms of trade, traffic, infrastructure, and governance; what are future plans; and what are the possibilities. We address these issues with the support of the OLI (ownership-location-internalization) paradigm that works as a framework analysis to four main drivers of FDI (foreign direct investment) attraction: resources, market, efficiencies, and location. This is exploratory case study research using archival data from the Port of Longyearbyen Authority, Governor’s Office, and Longyearbyen Community Council. The findings indicate that the strategic plan for port development at Svalbard should emphasize their location to attract investment. Further research is required to address the institutional environment and other legal aspects.

MIDDLE EAST ENCOUNTERS 69 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE: SYRIAN REFUGEES AND EVERYDAY HUMANITARIANISM IN THE ARCTIC

AbstractIn late 2015, approximately 2,000 Syrian asylum seekers made their way into Norway via the Arctic passage from Russia. What ensued are “global moments,” breakthrough events that have reshaped lives and futures for both the refugees and those who aided them, and it is the latter group on which this article focuses. As refugees began arriving in Arctic Norway, Refugees Welcome to the Arctic, an ad hoc grassroots organization, was formed to assist them. This group of ordinary people, most of them with no previous humanitarian experience, took action in defiance of Norwegian government policies, and providing food became the focus of their efforts. Refugees Welcome to the Arctic members often described being motived to act by their own traumatic memories of the region's experience of World War II, a time of deprivation and brutality suffered at the hands of the retreating German army. Food, as an enactment of compassion, is shown to be a powerful means through which people connect in very personal, concrete ways to the humanitarian enterprise.

Long-term dynamics of shipping and icebreaker capacity along the Northern Sea Route

The economic potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a seasonal Arctic passage between Europe and Asia is controversial. Despite the retreating Arctic Sea ice cover, seasonal shipping along the NSR requires icebreaker support and the utilisation of ice-class ships. To support operational and fleet investment decisions, we analyse the supply dynamics of cargo shipping and icebreaker capacity in the event of growing cargo volumes along the NSR through a system dynamics model till year 2065. In the model, the initial tonnage is based on existing fleet, while hypothetical cargo growth assumes three levels (low, medium and high), and climatic conditions follow three alternative scenarios (melting, baseline and freezing). The model results indicate that over 30 million tonnes of cargo p.a. would be needed to maintain a sustainable level of traffic in the NSR, compared to less than 4 million tonnes in 2014. During the modelled 50-year-period, on average 24 to 44 per cent of potential NSR cargo volume will be lost due to ageing icebreakers and ice-classed fleets and the slow newbuilding pace. The findings suggest that NSR’s economic potential for global shipping is likely to remain marginal for decades to come because of its inherent constraints.

The Salish Sea Boundary Straits: 'Historic Internal Waters' or Territorial Seas?

The Salish Sea Boundary Straits between the United States and Canada are a vital waterway connecting commercial and military ports in Washington State and British Columbia with the Pacific Ocean. Although the international boundary line in the waters has been authoritatively established, questions persist regarding the classification under the Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS) of the waters on either side of the international boundary as either internal waters or territorial seas. Similar questions on historic waters claims arise in the South China Sea and the Arctic Northwest Passage. This article examines the available evidence that might support a U.S. claim to historic title in the waters and concludes that it falls short of the international law standard. Accordingly, the boundary straits are properly classified as territorial seas and foreign vessels have a right of innocent passage in those waters.

Legal Framework on the Marine Environment Protection of Straits used for International Navigation: Has It Been Effective in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore?

There are approximately 116 straits used for international navigation around the world. Some of them are important international maritime chokepoints, namely the Dover Strait, Hormuz Strait, Straits of Malacca and Singapore and the Russian straits across the Northeast Arctic Passage. Due to the high number of navigational traffic going through these straits, vessel-source pollution is endemic in these waters. This article examines the applicable international legal framework on protection of the marine environment of straits used for international navigation such as Part XII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and other related legal measures like International Maritime Organization conventions on protection of the marine environment. This article concludes by stating that the present framework is not sufficient in properly balancing two vital interests in the maritime world – protection of the marine environment vis-a-vis shipping.

Commercial shipping in the Arctic: new perspectives, challenges and regulations

ABSTRACTMaritime traffic is increasing in Arctic seas in the context of climate change. The rapid melting of sea ice led to the widespread belief that traffic was set to expand rapidly, challenging Canadian and Russian-claimed sovereignties over their respective Arctic passage, and underlining the risk posed by such a traffic in a risky but fragile environment. If projections on potential traffic for the medium term are probably exaggerated, the increasing traffic nevertheless challenges the adequacy of the regulatory framework.

The Anyan Strait and the Far East: John Donne's Global Vision and Theological Cosmopolitanism

On 16 September 2009, two German ships-the Beluga Fraternity and Beluga Foresight-passed Novaya Zemlya, an island off Russia's north coast. Global warming has serendipitously opened up fabled Northwest Passage, an Arctic route that had been earnestly sought after and ultimately deemed impassable by navigators in early modern England. While modern nations compete over their rights to polar sea-lanes, few realize that Arctic dream has originated from England's desire to reach China and Far in sixteenth century. This essay traces genesis of Arctic passage project as related to China dream by examining historical and metaphorical associations of John Donne's image of Strait in his poem Hymn to My God, in My Sickness (1623). By uncovering Far Eastern background of early modern maritime adventures, I mean to show how Donne's invocation of some seemingly incidental geographical features reveals a surprisingly global vision and cosmopolitan spirit.Richard Hakluyt's Principal Navigations (1589-1600), an extensive travel compendium that documents maritime explorations, proved pivotal to raising England's consciousness of a globalizing world. Donne was numbered among those who responded nimbly to new message about recently discovered worlds that was trumpeted by Hakluyt's multivolume compilations.1 Images of new geographical discoveries pervade Donne's works, especially his divine poem Hymn to My God, in My Sickness. Here we hear speaker remark,Is Sea my home? Or areThe riches? Is Jerusalem?Anyan, and Magellan, and Gibraltar,All straits, and none but straits, are ways to them,Whether where Japhet dwelt, or Cham, or Shem.(Hymn, lines 16-20)2This stanza distinguishes both by number of geographical references that it contains and juxtaposition of biblical figures with some newly revealed regions. There are two general critical approaches to Donne's spatial imagery. One focuses on his physical places. Robert R. Owens claims that since Donne's geography is mystical in intent, designation of places is unimportant.3 But other scholars recognize importance of exact locations to understand Donne's works. Donald Anderson associates Donne's images of earth with medieval T-in-O maps.4 Whereas Robert Sharp traces these images to sixteenth-century cordiform maps, Claude Gandelman and Noam Flinker link them with anthropomorphic landscapes.5 Second, some scholars do see relevance of Donne's new geographic names, but, for most of these critics, John Gillies rightly points out, Donne's new regions are remorselessly typologised and sacralised, incongruously translated into patristic geography in which all places point towards ultimate place (the omphalos [center or hub] of Jerusalem) and in sacred direction (east).6 In contrast, Gillies himself proposes to regard Donne's new places on their own accounts.Neglected in scholarship on Donne's geographical images is their significance in a global context and part played by particular region of Far in shaping his global perspective.7 In his The English Voyages of Sixteenth Century (1905), historian W. A. Raleigh observes that [m]odern travel and geography owe their chief advances to search for fabled realm of Cathay [China], and it is through the discovery of a passage through one of innumerable inlets of North that the story of English Voyages begins (PN, 12:10).8 Three of six spatial images in Donne's Hymn to God refer to Far East-the Anyan Strait, Pacific Sea, and regions-a predominance that indicates an intense attention to this newly discovered region. By passage, Raleigh means both northeast pathway through Russia to China and northwest route to eastern riches via Strait in Pacific.9 It is these Arctic passage programs launched by English in sixteenth century that led ultimately to discovery of New World or America, the fourth part of world (PN, 7:160) Western Europeans encountered in race for Far East (PN, 12:8). …

On top of the world Lines in the Ice Seeking the Northwest Passage Philip Hatfield and Tom Harper, Curators British Library, London. 14 November 2014 to 29 March 2015. www.bl.uk/events/lines-in-the-ice-seeking-the-northwest-passage

Ingenuity and Inuit knowledge led to an Arctic passage, finds Julia Fahrenkamp-Uppenbrink

Regulation of extreme ice loads acting on hulls of azimuth propulsion systems for ice ships

Vessels with an azimuth propulsion system (APS), including double-acting tankers (DATs) designed for autonomous ice navigation in astern-running mode, which makes it possible to improve their icebreaking capability and operation performance in open water by means of bow shape optimisation, are considered to be promising ship types for hydrocarbon and ore material transportation along Arctic Passage routes. This paper covers the regulation issues of the extreme ice loads on the APS pods of conventional ships and DATs. It was traditional for Russian practice to use a hydrodynamic model (HDM) of solid body/ice impact; however the latest full-scale and laboratory experiments carried out in Russia, as well as abroad, show a higher degree of ice load localisation (or peaks) as compared with HDM predictions. For the regulation of the ice loads on the DAT azimuth propulsion system, a modified hydrodynamic model (MHDM) is used, which provides both satisfactory agreement with the experimental data and a good succession of the HDM's approaches and empiric coefficients. This paper suggests an approximate formula for the ice force determination, and this formula is based on MHDM approaches. The paper covers the methods of regulating the calculated parameters for the APS ice impact under ahead-running, astern-running and in circulation mode. It also considers the possibility for creating an efficient APS protection from ice impact under astern-running, and takes into account the double-acting tanker APS specifics. The paper suggests an engineering calculation model to determine the load on DAT APS when the vessel goes through an ice ridge under astern-running mode. It examines the case of the ridge keel interaction not only with the blades of the pulling propeller, but with the APS pod as well. The paper also considers the circumstance that the areas of the ridge keel adjacent to the zone destroyed in the course of interaction with the propeller blades are rather hollow.