Arctic Ocean Warming Research Articles

The Respective Roles of Ocean Heat Transport and Surface Heat Fluxes in Driving Arctic Ocean Warming and Sea Ice Decline

Abstract Arctic Ocean warming and sea ice loss are closely linked to increased ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic and changes in surface heat fluxes. To quantitatively assess their respective roles, we use the 100-member Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), Large Ensemble over the 1920–2100 period. We first examine the Arctic Ocean warming in a heat budget framework by calculating the contributions from heat exchanges with atmosphere and sea ice and OHT across the Arctic Ocean gateways. Then we quantify how much anomalous heat from the ocean directly translates to sea ice loss and how much is lost to the atmosphere. We find that Arctic Ocean warming is driven primarily by increased OHT through the Barents Sea Opening, with additional contributions from the Fram Strait and Bering Strait OHTs. These OHT changes are driven mainly by warmer inflowing water rather than changes in volume transports across the gateways. The Arctic Ocean warming driven by OHT is partially damped by increased heat loss through the sea surface. Although absorbed shortwave radiation increases due to reduced surface albedo, this increase is compensated by increasing upwelling longwave radiation and latent heat loss. We also explicitly calculate the contributions of ocean–ice and atmosphere–ice heat fluxes to sea ice heat budget changes. Throughout the entire twentieth century as well as the early twenty-first century, the atmosphere is the main contributor to ice heat gain in summer, though the ocean’s role is not negligible. Over time, the ocean progressively becomes the main heat source for the ice as the ocean warms. Significance Statement Arctic Ocean warming and sea ice loss are closely linked to increased ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic and changes in surface heat fluxes. Here we use 100 simulations from the same climate model to analyze future warming and sea ice loss. We find that Arctic Ocean warming is primarily driven by increased OHT through the Barents Sea Opening, though the Fram and Bering Straits are also important. This increased OHT is primarily due to warmer inflowing water rather than changing ocean currents. This ocean heat gain is partially compensated by heat loss through the sea surface. During the twentieth century and early twenty-first century, sea ice loss is mainly linked to heat transferred from the atmosphere; however, over time, the ocean progressively becomes the most important contributor.

Revealing the seasonal cycles of Arctic phytoplankton: insights from year-round chlorophyll monitoring

Rapid Arctic Ocean warming has caused severe sea ice decline, impacting light distribution, phytoplankton blooms, and primary production. We investigated Arctic phytoplankton bloom timing using continuous chlorophyll-a fluorescence data obtained from three Korea Arctic Mooring Systems (KAMSs) deployed north of the East Siberian Sea (KAMS1), north of the Chukchi Sea (KAMS2), and the middle of the Northwind Ridge (KAMS4). Our findings revealed that the bloom initiation times were June 4 (±28 d) in KAMS1, June 24 in KAMS2, and May 21 (±6 d) in KAMS4, when the sea ice concentration (SIC) was >90% and the ice thickness was 1–2 m, indicating that the under-ice phytoplankton blooms (UIBs) developed 1–2 months before the sea ice retreated (mid-July, when SIC was <80%). Peak bloom and termination times were consistently observed in early August and mid-October, respectively. The average phytoplankton bloom lasted for approximately four months, longer than the open water periods at the mooring sites. However, the timing of the phytoplankton blooms from the biogeochemical model-based reconstructions was, on average, 6–10 weeks later than that deduced from the observed data. Furthermore, the maximum chlorophyll-a concentration observed during the bloom peak was approximately ten-times higher than that indicated by the biogeochemical model-based reconstructions (1.81 vs. 0.17 mg −3). The differences in chlorophyll-a concentrations and bloom timings indicate that biogeochemical models remain insufficient for simulating the phytoplankton dynamics of the Arctic Ocean, such as UIBs and the subsurface chlorophyll maximum layer. Based on the continuously observed chlorophyll-a concentrations, we gained a precise understanding of the seasonal cycles of Arctic phytoplankton, including UIBs. These valuable data will contribute to improving the accuracy of biogeochemical models of the Arctic Ocean.

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Using an ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) in an idealized climate change experiment, this study evaluates the contribution of different ocean processes to Arctic Ocean warming. On the AOGCM-mean, the Arctic Ocean warming is greater than the global ocean warming, both in the volume-weighted mean, and at most depths within the upper 2000 m. However, the uncertainty of Arctic Ocean warming is much larger than the uncertainty of global ocean warming. The Arctic warming is greatest a few 100 m below the surface and is dominated by the import of extra heat, which is added to the ocean at lower latitudes and is conveyed to the Arctic mostly by the large-scale barotropic ocean circulation. The change in strength of this circulation in the North Atlantic is relatively small and not correlated with the Arctic Ocean warming. The Arctic Ocean warming is opposed and substantially mitigated by the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), though the magnitude of this effect has a large model spread. By reducing the northward transport of heat, the AMOC weakening causes a redistribution of heat from high latitudes to low latitudes. Within the Arctic Ocean, the propagation of heat anomalies is influenced by broadening of cyclonic circulation in the east and weakening of anticyclonic circulation in the west. On the model-mean, the Arctic Ocean warming is most pronounced in the Eurasian Basin, with large spread across the AOGCMs, and accompanied by subsurface cooling by diapycnal mixing and heat redistribution by mesoscale eddies.

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models.

Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The change of the underlying Arctic Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ice, atmosphere, and the global ocean, but it is less well understood. Here, we show that the upper 2000 m of the Arctic Ocean warms at 2.3 times the global mean rate within this depth range averaged over the 21st century in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario. We call this phenomenon the “Arctic Ocean Amplification.” The amplified Arctic Ocean warming can be attributed to a substantial increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which will continue outweighing sea surface heat loss in the future. Arctic Amplification of both the atmosphere and ocean indicates that the Arctic as a whole is one of Earth’s regions most susceptible to climate change.

Recent upper Arctic Ocean warming expedited by summertime atmospheric processes

The observed upper (0–50 m) Arctic Ocean warming since 1979 has been primarily attributed to anthropogenically driven changes in the high latitudes. Here, using both observational and modeling analyses, we demonstrate that a multiyear trend in the summertime large-scale atmospheric circulation, which we ascribe to internal variability, has played an important role in upper ocean warming in summer and fall over the past four decades due to sea ice-albedo effect induced by atmospheric dynamics. Nudging experiments in which the wind fields are constrained toward the observed state support this mechanism and suggest that the internal variability contribution to recent upper Arctic Ocean warming accounts for up to one quarter of warming over the past four decades and up to 60% of warming from 2000 to 2018. This suggests that climate models need to replicate this important internal process in order to realistically simulate Arctic Ocean temperature variability and trends.

Influence of Arctic sea-ice variability on Pacific trade winds

A conceptual model connecting seasonal loss of Arctic sea ice to midlatitude extreme weather events is applied to the 21st-century intensification of Central Pacific trade winds, emergence of Central Pacific El Nino events, and weakening of the North Pacific Aleutian Low Circulation. According to the model, Arctic Ocean warming following the summer sea-ice melt drives vertical convection that perturbs the upper troposphere. Static stability calculations show that upward convection occurs in annual 40- to 45-d episodes over the seasonally ice-free areas of the Beaufort-to-Kara Sea arc. The episodes generate planetary waves and higher-frequency wave trains that transport momentum and heat southward in the upper troposphere. Regression of upper tropospheric circulation data on September sea-ice area indicates that convection episodes produce wave-mediated teleconnections between the maximum ice-loss region north of the Siberian Arctic coast and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These teleconnections generate oppositely directed trade-wind anomalies in the Central and Eastern Pacific during boreal winter. The interaction of upper troposphere waves with the ITCZ air-sea column may also trigger Central Pacific El Nino events. Finally, waves reflected northward from the ITCZ air column and/or generated by triggered El Nino events may be responsible for the late winter weakening of the Aleutian Low Circulation in recent years.

Intensification of hot Eurasian summers by climate change and land\u2013atmosphere interactions

Persistent abnormal hot weather can cause considerable damage to human society and natural environments. In northern Eurasia, the recent change in summer surface air temperature exhibits a heterogeneous pattern with accelerated warming around the Eastern European Plain and Central Siberia, forming a wave train-like structure. However, the key factors that determine the magnitude and spatial distribution of this summer temperature trend remain unclear. Here, a huge ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations show that the recent summer temperature trend has been intensified by two factors: steady warming induced by external forcing and inhomogeneous warming induced by internal atmosphere–land interactions that amplify quasi-stationary waves. The latter is sensitive to both snow cover and soil moisture anomalies in the spring, suggesting the potential of land surface monitoring for better seasonal prediction of summer temperatures. Dramatic changes in the circumpolar environment, characterised by Eurasian snow variation and Arctic Ocean warming, collectively affect summertime climate via memory effects of the land surface.

Drivers of Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models

AbstractWe investigate changes in the Arctic Ocean energy budget simulated by 26 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 framework. Our goal is to understand whether the Arctic Ocean warming between 1961 and 2099 is primarily driven by changes in the net atmospheric surface flux or by changes in the meridional oceanic heat flux. We find that the simulated Arctic Ocean warming is driven by positive anomalies in the net atmospheric surface flux in 11 models, by positive anomalies in the meridional oceanic heat flux in 11 models, and by positive anomalies in both energy fluxes in four models. The different behaviors are mainly characterized by the different changes in meridional oceanic heat flux that lead to different changes in the turbulent heat loss to the atmosphere. The multimodel ensemble mean is hence not representative of a consensus across the models in Arctic climate projections.

ONR arctic acoustics 1978—1998

The Arctic Program Office of the Office of Naval Research ten Arctic field programs from 1978–1994 under the visionary leadership of program managers Dr. G. Leonard Johnson and Dr. Tom Curtin. During this period, over ten ice camps in both the western Arctic (Beaufort Sea) and the eastern Arctic (Nansen and Pole Abyssal Plains were manned and four ice breakers served as platforms in the marginal ice zone (Fram Straits). Since the cost of the support logistics for Arctic field programs is so very high, these experiments were multidisciplinary and almost all had an acoustic component. Some of the highlights were transoceanic reverberation, seismic reflection and refraction, random channels for time and Doppler spreading, target detection, matched field processing,ocean acoustic tomography, seismicity, and ambient noise were among the many topics examined. There were also robust efforts advancing data acquisition. Large, two dimensional horizontal arrays with both cabled and “WIFI” telemetry, large vertical arrays, precision sensor navigation, and sophisticated remote instrumentation buoys were deployed. With the end of the “Cold War” the last field program was in 1994 and the ONR Arctic program eventually was disestablished. Now, the retreat Arctic ice cover and Arctic Ocean warming has reinvigorated ONR's interest in the Arctic and after two decades ONR field programs are planned for the near future.

Deep Arctic Ocean warming during the last glacial cycle

In the Arctic Ocean, the cold and relatively fresh water beneath the sea ice is separated from the underlying warmer and saltier Atlantic Layer by a halocline. Ongoing sea ice loss and warming in t ...

Variation of upper-ocean heat content in the Canada Basin in summers of 2003 and 2008

Conductivity, temperature, and depth data collected during the summers of 2003 and 2008 were usedto study upper-ocean (top 200 m) heat content in the Canada Basin. The variation of heat content with depth, heat content diFFErences between the summers, principal driving factors, and horizontal spatial scale diFFErenceswere analyzed. A catastrophic reduction of sea ice cover in the Canada Basin was evident in 2008 by comparisonwith 2003, suggesting that more solar radiation was absorbed in the upper ocean during the summer of 2008. Thesea ice reduction produced more freshwater in the upper ocean. Thus, seawater properties changed. The studyshows that the huge reduction of sea ice would result in two changes-widespread warming of the upper ocean, and the depth of pacific inflow water in the basin increased substantially. Near-surface temperature maximum(NSTM) water was also analyzed as an indicator of Arctic Ocean warming.

Arctic Ocean warming and its consequences for the Denmark Strait overflow

[1] Two anomalously warm inflow pulses into the Atlantic Water Layer of the Arctic Ocean have occurred since the late 1980s. As a consequence temperatures of the Arctic basins at 200–800 m depth have increased considerably in comparison to earlier decades. The warm inflow pulses also had a low density. Owing to the decadal time scale of the circulation in the Atlantic Water Layer large pools of anomalously light water have thereby formed in the Arctic Ocean. These will slowly drain back south into the Nordic Seas. We submit that they will be able to influence the overflows into the Atlantic across the Greenland-Scotland ridges. The Atlantic meridional overturning is fed by these overflows. Our model experiments indicate that the low-density anomalies from the Arctic Ocean may be able to reduce the Denmark Strait overflow 15–25 years after the entrance of the original signal through Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean. The actual size of the reduction depends on the exact path and speed of the anomalies inside the Arctic proper and on local processes in the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Sea.

Arctic Ocean Warming Contributes to Reduced Polar Ice Cap

Abstract Analysis of modern and historical observations demonstrates that the temperature of the intermediate-depth (150–900 m) Atlantic water (AW) of the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades. The AW warming has been uneven in time; a local ∼1°C maximum was observed in the mid-1990s, followed by an intervening minimum and an additional warming that culminated in 2007 with temperatures higher than in the 1990s by 0.24°C. Relative to climatology from all data prior to 1999, the most extreme 2007 temperature anomalies of up to 1°C and higher were observed in the Eurasian and Makarov Basins. The AW warming was associated with a substantial (up to 75–90 m) shoaling of the upper AW boundary in the central Arctic Ocean and weakening of the Eurasian Basin upper-ocean stratification. Taken together, these observations suggest that the changes in the Eurasian Basin facilitated greater upward transfer of AW heat to the ocean surface layer. Available limited observations and results from a 1D ocean column model support this surmised upward spread of AW heat through the Eurasian Basin halocline. Experiments with a 3D coupled ice–ocean model in turn suggest a loss of 28–35 cm of ice thickness after ∼50 yr in response to the 0.5 W m−2 increase in AW ocean heat flux suggested by the 1D model. This amount of thinning is comparable to the 29 cm of ice thickness loss due to local atmospheric thermodynamic forcing estimated from observations of fast-ice thickness decline. The implication is that AW warming helped precondition the polar ice cap for the extreme ice loss observed in recent years.

Mechanisms of summertime upper Arctic Ocean warming and the effect on sea ice melt

In this study, we use a numerical sea‐ice‐ocean model to examine what causes summertime upper ocean warming and sea ice melt during the 21st century in the Arctic Ocean. Our first question is, “What causes the ocean to warm in the Pacific Sector during the summer”? We find that about 80% of total heating over this region comes from ocean surface heat flux, with the remaining 20% originating in ocean lateral heat flux convergence. The latter occurs mostly within a few hundred kilometers of the northwest Alaskan coast. In the summer of 2007, the ocean gained just over twice the amount of heat it did over the average of the previous 7 years. Our second question is, “What causes sea ice to melt in the Pacific Sector during summer”? Our analysis shows that top melt dominates total melt early in the summer, while bottom melt (and in particular, bottom melt due to ocean heat transport) dominates later in the summer as atmospheric heating declines. Bottom melt rates in summer 2007 were 34% higher relative to the previous 7 year average. The modeled partition of top versus bottom melt closely matches observed melt rates obtained by a drifting buoy. Bottom melting contributes about 2/3 of total volume melt but is geographically confined to the Marginal Ice Zone, while top melting contributes a lesser 1/3 of volume melt but occurs over a much broader area of the ice pack.

The Influence of Sea Ice on Ocean Heat Uptake in Response to Increasing CO2

Abstract Two significant changes in ocean heat uptake that occur in the vicinity of sea ice cover in response to increasing CO2 are investigated with Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): a deep warming below ∼500 m and extending down several kilometers in the Southern Ocean and warming in a ∼200-m layer just below the surface in the Arctic Ocean. Ocean heat uptake caused by sea ice retreat is isolated by running the model with the sea ice albedo reduced artificially alone. This integration has a climate response with strong ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and modest ocean heat uptake in the subsurface Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Ocean warming results from enhanced ocean heat transport from the northern North Atlantic. At the time of CO2 doubling, about 1/3 of the heat transport anomaly results from advection of anomalously warm water and 2/3 results from strengthened inflow. At the same time the overturning circulation is strengthened in the northern North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Wind stress changes cannot explain the circulation changes, which instead appear related to strengthened convection along the Siberian shelves. Deep ocean warming in the Southern Ocean is initiated by weakened convection, which is mainly a result of surface freshening through altered sea ice and ocean freshwater transport. Below about 500 m, changes in convection reduce the vertical and meridional temperature gradients in the Southern Ocean, which significantly reduce isopycnal diffusion of heat upward around Antarctica. The geometry of the sea ice cover and its influence on convection have a strong influence on ocean temperature gradients, making sea ice an important player in deep ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean.

Causes and development of repeated Arctic Ocean warming events

A model hindcast for 1948–2002 shows several warming events in the Atlantic layer of the Arctic Ocean. The most recent warming event in the 1990s spread from Fram Strait to the Lomonosov Ridge and into the Canadian Basin. Only a warming event in the 1960s can also be followed into the eastern Eurasian Basin. These two warming events are reinforced by anomalously warm flow from the Barents Sea while warming events in the 1970s and 1980s encounter average or below normal temperatures in the Barents Sea branch of the Atlantic Water. The warm Barents Sea outflow in the 1960s is caused by extensive ice cover and a melt water induced halocline in the Barents Sea that reduced heat loss from the Atlantic water. In the 1990s, however, the warm inflow from the Nordic Seas was responsible for warmer than normal flow from the Barents Sea into the Arctic Ocean.

Feasibility of acoustic thermometry of Arctic Ocean climate change

Inverting observations of changes in long‐range acoustic travel time, phase, amplitude, and modal dispersion has been proposed for the Arctic Ocean. Initial calculations [Mikhalevsky et al., ‘‘Arctic Ocean Warming; Can We Measure it Acoustically?,’’ The Oceanographic Society, Second Scientific Meeting, St. Petersburg, FL (March 1991)] showed that it could be possible to monitor ocean volume warming, and changes is sea ice extent and thickness. New results will be presented using higher fidelity acoustic modeling and the results of other international collaborators, including the Russians, will be summarized. Plans for a feasibility test in the Arctic are underway for a spring 1994 experiment.