Capsule Lake occupancy was related to the abundance of fish prey for adults (salmonids) and chick survival was related to type of diet, prey abundance and weather. Aims To identify the factors determining lake occupancy and chick survival of Black-throated Divers breeding in Scotland. Methods Measures of water chemistry, fish, invertebrates and physical characteristics were made for 90 lakes where occupancy had been monitored in at least five years between 1984 and 1995. Data on chick survival were available over this period for a smaller sample of lakes. Results High occupancy rates were associated with a high abundance of small salmonids (the birds' principal prey) and complex shorelines. The mean number of chicks fledged per nest that hatched was 0.95 at lakes where Three-spined Sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus and/or Minnows Phoxinus phoxinus were present; the mean number of chicks fledged was 0.64 where they were absent (and chicks are fed invertebrates). Chick survival on lakes with sticklebacks/Minnows was positively and significantly related to June temperature, and the abundance of these fish. At lakes lacking these small fish, chick survival was inversely related to sunshine duration in June. It is suggested that sunny weather in June can accelerate the emergence of aquatic insect larvae (especially Ephemeroptera) and lead to food shortage for small diver chicks. Conclusions It is likely that there are sufficient suitable lakes to accommodate a moderate expansion of the Scottish Black-throated Diver population. An abundance of suitable fish prey, especially small-sized (<230 mm) salmonids, is of fundamental importance for diver conservation.