Arctic Infrastructure Research Articles

Using Ground‐Penetrating Radar to Infer Ice Wedge Characteristics Proximal to Water Tracks

AbstractMassive ground ice in Arctic regions underlain using continuous permafrost influences hydrologic processes, leading to ground subsidence and the release of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. The relation of massive ground ice such as ice wedges to water tracks and seasonally saturated hydrologic pathways remains uncertain. Here, we examine the location of ice wedges along a water track on the North Slope of Alaska using Ground‐Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys, in situ measurements, soil cores, and forward modeling. Of nine unique GPR surveys collected in the summers of 2022 and 2023, seven exhibit distinctive “X”‐shaped reflections above columnar reflectors that are spatially correlated with water track margins. Forward modeling of plausible geometries suggests that ice wedges produce reflection patterns most similar to the reflections observed in our GPR profiles. Additionally, a large magnitude (∼71 mm) rain event on 8 July 2023 led to a ground collapse that exposed four ice wedges on the margin of the studied water track, ∼100 m downstream of our GPR surveys. Together, this suggests that GPR is a viable method for identifying the location of ice wedges as air temperatures in the Arctic continue to increase, we expect that ice wedges may thaw, destabilizing water tracks and causing ground collapse and expansion of thermo‐erosional gullies. This ground collapse will increase greenhouse gas emissions and threaten the Arctic infrastructure. Future geophysical analysis of upland Arctic hillslopes should include additional water tracks to better characterize potential heterogeneity in permafrost vulnerability across the warming Arctic.

Permafrost slows Arctic riverbank erosion.

The rate of river migration affects the stability of Arctic infrastructure and communities1,2 and regulates the fluxes of carbon3,4, nutrients5 and sediment6,7 to the oceans. However, predicting how the pace of river migration will change in a warming Arctic8 has so far been stymied by conflicting observations about whether permafrost9 primarily acts to slow10,11 or accelerate12,13 river migration. Here we develop new computational methods that enable the detection of riverbank erosion at length scales 5-10times smaller than the pixel size in satellite imagery, an innovation that unlocks the ability to quantify erosion at the sub-monthly timescales when rivers undergo their largest variations in water temperature and flow. We use these high-frequency observations to constrain the extent to which erosion is limited by the thermal condition of melting the pore ice that cements bank sediment14, a requirement that will disappear when permafrost thaws, versus the mechanical condition of having sufficient flow to transport the sediment comprising the riverbanks, a condition experienced by all rivers15. Analysis of high-resolution data from the Koyukuk River, Alaska, shows that the presence of permafrost reduces erosion rates by 47%. Using our observations, we calibrate and validate a numerical model that can be applied to diverse Arctic rivers. The model predicts that full permafrost thaw may lead to a 30-100% increase in the migration rates of Arctic rivers.

Life Cycles and Polycyclicity of Mega Retrogressive Thaw Slumps in Arctic Permafrost Revealed by 2D/3D Geophysics and Long‐Term Retreat Monitoring

AbstractMega retrogressive thaw slumps (MRTS, >106 m3) are a major threat to Arctic infrastructure, alter regional biogeochemistry, and impact Arctic carbon budgets. However, processes initiating and reactivating MRTS are insufficiently understood. We hypothesize that MRTS preferentially develop a polycyclic behavior because the material is thermally and mechanically prepared for subsequent generation failure. In contrast to remote sensing, geophysical reconnaissance reveals the inner structure and relative thermal state of MRTS decameters beneath slump surfaces, potentially controlling polycyclicity. Based on their life cycle development, five (M)RTS were studied on Herschel Island, an MRTS hotspot on the Canadian Beaufort coast. We combine >2 km of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), 500 m of ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) and annual monitoring of headwall retreat from 2004 to 2013 to reveal the thermal state, internal structure, and volume loss of slumps. ERT data were calibrated with unfrozen‐frozen transitions from frost probing of active layer thickness and shallow boreholes. In initial stage MRTS, ERT displays surficial thermal perturbations a few meters deep, coincident with recent mud pool and mud flow development. In early stage polycyclic MRTS, ERT shows decameter deep‐reaching thermal perturbations persisting even 300 years after the last activation. In peak‐stage polycyclic MRTS, 3D‐ERT highlights actively extending deep‐reaching thermal perturbations caused by gully incisions, mud slides and mud flows. GPR and headwall monitoring reveal structural disturbance by historical mud flows, ice‐rich permafrost, and a decadal quantification of headwall retreat and slump floor erosion. We show that geophysical signatures identify long‐lasting thermal and mechanical disturbances in MRTS predefining their susceptibility to polycyclic reactivation.

Problems of the management of habitat monitoring in settlements (ports) of the Northern Sea Route

Introduction. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the main Arctic shipping route in the Russian Federation. As part of the development of Arctic infrastructure, the state and private investors have launched large-scale work on the development of Arctic ports. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the current monitoring system for the state of atmospheric air, soil, and drinking water in the territory of settlements (ports) in the Northern Sea Route. Materials and methods. Official data from environmental pollution monitoring by (Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) and social and hygienic monitoring by Federal Service for Supervision in Protection of the Rights of Consumer and Man Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) in twelve settlements and ports in the Northern Sea Route were used. An electronic database has been created. The analysis was carried out using MS Office Excel, visualization of the location of monitoring points – ESRI ArcGIS 9.3 Results. The conducted research has shown heterogeneity in the management of monitoring of environmental factors of the population living in settlements (ports) of the NSR. The largest monitoring coverage is typical for settlements in the North-West – primarily the cities of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, where the largest number of posts are located and all environments are monitored – atmospheric air, soil of populated areas and drinking water. There is practically no monitoring of the habitat in the village of Sabetta, Dudinka. In the village. Dixon habitat monitoring is not carried out. Atmospheric air, the quality of which is especially important for territories with developed port infrastructure, is controlled only in 5 out of 12 settlements (ports) of the NSR. Limitations. The research had no limitations. Conclusion. The need to optimize the monitoring system was noted. As measures, it is recommended to manage monitoring of atmospheric air, drinking water, and soil in the village. Dixon; atmospheric air and soil in the village. Sabetta and Dudinka; atmospheric air in Beringovsky village, Igarka, Providence village; soil in Tiksi village. It is necessary to expand the list of controlled indices in atmospheric air, drinking water and soil, as well as increase the frequency of sampling.

The ambivalence of the implementation of the US arctic policy: integrating and disintegration factors of the allies

The Arctic region is gaining increasing strategic importance due to its economic potential, resource richness, and shifting geopolitical landscape. The United States has recognized this significance and has established alliances and partnerships with various countries in the region to enhance its positions and interests. However, concerns exist regarding the limited understanding of the complex dynamics and evolving relationships among the US Arctic allies. The lack of comprehensive analysis and up-to-date information hinders the understanding of their strategic documents, military exercises, and interactions with global players like China and Russia. To address these concerns, our objective was to identify, analyze, and assess the factors that strengthen or weaken the interaction between US allies and partners in the Arctic region. We conducted an analysis of national Arctic strategies, reports, publications, and expert opinions from Western Arctic Council countries such as the USA, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. We also examined the reports and structures of the US defense services, interstate organizations like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), as well as insights from leading experts on Arctic affairs in allied countries. The study revealed several factors that contribute to the strengthening of the US allies in the Arctic. These include active military cooperation within the North Atlantic Alliance, joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and the development of Arctic infrastructure to enhance regional security and defense capabilities. However, we also identified factors that weaken engagement among the US allies. These include differences in strategic goals, competing territorial claims, domestic political considerations, and varying relationships with other Arctic stakeholders like Russia and China. These factors can lead to tensions and challenges, which undermine collective action and impede the achievement of common goals.

Mapping Soil Carbon Dynamics and Permafrost Thaw Response to Abrupt Climate Change in the Usa River Basin, Russia

A computer-based map is considered a crucial foundational resource for conducting comprehensive carbon budget studies in northern latitudes. Detailed soil maps were created for the intensive study sites located in the forest-tundra and tundra regions using QuickBird 61 cm panchromatic and 2.4 m multispectral resolution satellite images, alongside a database containing morphological descriptions and analytical data from 153 soil profiles, long-term permafrost monitoring sites, and meteorological records. The results of GIS-analysis indicate that approximately 60% of all infrastructure is situated in areas with a "high risk" of permafrost degradation. These areas, defined as zones with isolated to discontinuous permafrost coverage ranging from 3% to 90% and ground temperatures ranging from 0 to -2 °C, are expected to experience significant thawing within the next few decades to a century. Long-term measurements taken at CALM (Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring) sites in the region have shown a continuous increase in thaw depths, resulting in a lowering of the permafrost table. This trend poses significant challenges for permafrost engineering and highlights the need for long-term investments in arctic infrastructure that will yield returns over time. The database has been utilized to assess soil organic carbon stocks.

Арктиканың көліктік-транзиттік әлеуеті және Қытай: проблемалар, мүмкіндіктер және перспективалар

The Arctic region, with its changing climate and shrinking sea ice, has significant potential for transport and transit activities, especially for countries looking for new trade routes and resource exploration opportunities. This article examines the transport and transit potential of the Arctic and its significance for China. Particular attention is paid to the Arctic routes, including the Northern Sea Route, the Transpolar Sea Route and the Northwest Passage. In addition, the paper examines China's involvement in the development of Arctic infrastructure, as well as the potential benefits and future prospects for China in the use of Arctic transport routes. Through in-depth analysis, this article elucidates the evolving dynamics of transport and transit in the Arctic and its implications for China's economic and strategic interests.

A multi-objective comparison of CNN architectures in Arctic human-built infrastructure mapping from sub-meter resolution satellite imagery

ABSTRACTRisk assessment of infrastructure exposed to ice-rich permafrost hazards is essential for climate change adaptation in the Arctic. As this process requires up-to-date, comprehensive, high-resolution maps of human-built infrastructure, gaps in such geospatial information and knowledge of the applications required to produce it must be addressed. Therefore, this study highlights the ongoing development of a deep learning approach to efficiently map the Arctic built environment by detecting nine different types of structures (detached houses, row houses, multi-story blocks, non-residential buildings, roads, runways, gravel pads, pipelines, and storage tanks) from recently-acquired Maxar commercial satellite imagery (<1 m resolution). We conducted a multi-objective comparison, focusing on generalization performance and computational cost, of nine different semantic segmentation architectures. K-fold cross validation was used to estimate the average F1-score of each architecture and the Friedman Aligned Ranks test with the Bergmann-Hommel post-hoc procedure was applied to test for significant differences in generalization performance. ResNet-50-UNet++ performs significantly better than five out of the other eight candidate architectures; no significant difference was found in the pairwise comparisons of ResNet-50-UNet++ to ResNet-50-MANet, ResNet-101-MANet, and ResNet-101-UNet++. We then conducted a high-performance computing scaling experiment to compare the number of service units and runtime required for model inferencing on a hypothetical pan-Arctic scale dataset. We found that the ResNet-50-UNet++ model could save up to ~ 54% on service unit expenditure, or ~ 18% on runtime, when considering operational deployment of our mapping approach. Our results suggest that ResNet-50-UNet++ could be the most suitable architecture (out of the nine that were examined) for deep learning-enabled Arctic infrastructure mapping efforts. Overall, our findings regarding the differences between the examined CNN architectures and our methodological framework for multi-objective architecture comparison can provide a foundation that may propel future pan-Arctic GeoAI mapping efforts of infrastructure.

Advantages and Challenges of Developing Large and Local Coal Projects in the Arctic Zone of Russia

Among the new projects of the Program for the Development of the Coal Industry of the Russian Federation until 2035, the possibility of developing the Arctic coal deposits is being considered. The article considers both positive (increase in NSR cargo turnover, employment in the territory, development of the Arctic infrastructure) and negative effects (environmental burden, non-transparency of tax revenues of projects not in the territory of implementation, rotational management, state subsidies, etc.), which generate new projects.Prospects for the supply of new coal projects are analyzed in the context of the decarbonization economy. Arctic projects involve the supply of coking coal and anthracites for export, which leads to increased competition in the Asian markets among Russian coal suppliers from Yakutia, Tyva, and Kuzbass. Due to the geographical remoteness of traditional coal mining centers from export ports and due to the limited capacity of the railway, in the future, competition between individual regions of the Russian Federation for access to logistics infrastructure and subsidies for transportation becomes acute. In this situation, Arctic coal projects are in a comparatively better position.An increase in the production of high-quality coking coals and anthracites is planned to be achieved in the underdeveloped northern regions, which will require the use of new innovative technological solutions not only in the production, but also in the transportation of coal, as well as the involvement of a large number of workers and specialists.

Design basis for Arctic infrastructure facilities

&lt;abstract&gt; &lt;p&gt;A discussion related to the selection of a proper design basis for Arctic infrastructure facilities is presented. The design basis, which must be sufficiently robust to ensure safe operations of the facilities during their planned lifetime, should include relevant information available from the local and indigenous people of the area. The need to properly document all data and assumptions made when preparing the design basis is highlighted, and it is emphasized that, in the case of the upgrading of the facilities, all new data collected must be included in the database. Documentation of all updating is necessary and must be available to all involved during maintenance activities and for possible later upgrading of the facilities. This database must be available digitally, as access to the basics for the design may be of particular concern in the sparsely populated Arctic region, where the distribution of paper copies takes a long time, particularly in the case of emergency situations. Therefore, this database must be protected from cyberattacks. A "Plan B" is needed to ensure that a backup of the fully updated design basis documents, as well as documentation of the "as built" facilities, is available at any time.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/abstract&gt;

The costs of Arctic infrastructure damages due to permafrost degradation

Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, and putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation and associated risks to built infrastructure due to loss of bearing capacity and thaw subsidence in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Using a subset of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 and 585 scenarios we estimated changes in permafrost bearing capacity and ground subsidence between two reference decades: 2015–2024 and 2055–2064. Using publicly available infrastructure databases we identified roads, railways, airport runways, and buildings at risk of permafrost degradation and estimated country-specific costs associated with damage to infrastructure. The results show that under the SSP245 scenario 29% of roads, 23% of railroads, and 11% of buildings will be affected by permafrost degradation, costing $182 billion to the Arctic states by mid-century. Under the SSP585 scenario, 44% of roads, 34% of railroads, and 17% of buildings will be affected with estimated cost of $276 billion, with airport runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs, ranging from $115 to $169 billion depending on the scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions has the potential to significantly decrease the costs of projected damages in Arctic countries, especially in Russia. The approach presented in this study underscores the substantial impacts of climate change on infrastructure and can assist to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies in Arctic states.

The Potential of UAV Imagery for the Detection of Rapid Permafrost Degradation: Assessing the Impacts on Critical Arctic Infrastructure

Ground subsidence and erosion processes caused by permafrost thaw pose a high risk to infrastructure in the Arctic. Climate warming is increasingly accelerating the thawing of permafrost, emphasizing the need for thorough monitoring to detect damages and hazards at an early stage. The use of unoccupied aerial vehicles (UAVs) allows a fast and uncomplicated analysis of sub-meter changes across larger areas compared to manual surveys in the field. In our study, we investigated the potential of photogrammetry products derived from imagery acquired with off-the-shelf UAVs in order to provide a low-cost assessment of the risks of permafrost degradation along critical infrastructure. We tested a minimal drone setup without ground control points to derive high-resolution 3D point clouds via structure from motion (SfM) at a site affected by thermal erosion along the Dalton Highway on the North Slope of Alaska. For the sub-meter change analysis, we used a multiscale point cloud comparison which we improved by applying (i) denoising filters and (ii) alignment procedures to correct for horizontal and vertical offsets. Our results show a successful reduction in outliers and a thorough correction of the horizontal and vertical point cloud offset by a factor of 6 and 10, respectively. In a defined point cloud subset of an erosion feature, we derive a median land surface displacement of −0.35 m from 2018 to 2019. Projecting the development of the erosion feature, we observe an expansion to NNE, following the ice-wedge polygon network. With a land surface displacement of −0.35 m and an alignment root mean square error of 0.99 m, we find our workflow is best suitable for detecting and quantifying rapid land surface changes. For a future improvement of the workflow, we recommend using alternate flight patterns and an enhancement of the point cloud comparison algorithm.

PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE KEY ARCTIC PROJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF SANCTIONS

The Russian federal policy in the Arctic has stimulated a significant intensification of economic activity over a vast territory. We identified the system of Arctic investment projects: projects on the Arctic land and on the continental shelf, infrastructure initiatives. This problem is particularly relevant because it relied on borrowing foreign production potential before the start of the economic confrontation with the West. Simultaneously little attention was paid to the development of their own technological solutions. It is determined that in the current conditions for the Russian economy, the issue of maintaining the realistic plans for the development of the Arctic without foreign partners is extremely important. The paper examines the support for designated projects (mining, offshore, oil and gas), public-private partnerships in the implementation of Arctic infrastructure initiatives (the Northern Latitudinal Railway, the Northern Sea Route). It is emphasized that despite all the economic difficulties in 2022, the implementation of the largest Arctic investment projects continues as planned. The author concludes that the pace of their implementation may be lower than previously planned. The research results have show that special attention to the development of own production capacities is needed, the creation of an «Arctic section» in the Plan of Priority Actions to ensure the development of the Russian economy in the face of external sanctions pressure, and to combine the efforts of the state and business.

Arctic Connectivity: A Frugal Approach to Infrastructural Development

As the Arctic is heating up, so are efforts to strengthen connectivity within the region, enhance the connections from remote settlements to the global networks of trade, and increase sociality. With global interest in the Arctic on the rise, it becomes increasingly relevant to ensure that investments in Arctic infrastructure actually serve the people of the Arctic, while promoting industrial and commercial innovation in the region through widespread access to broadband and Internet of things (IoT) services. This challenge calls for interdisciplinary research strategies that are able to connect and integrate technological and societal approaches, which are commonly applied in isolation from one another. In this article, we propose an interdisciplinary collaborative research agenda for Arctic connectivity. Drawing on examples from Greenland, we stress the need for localized knowledge to design valuable and cost-effective connectivity solutions that cover the needs for everyday life and may also provide a new set of collaborative connectivity tools for innovation at an international level. Such solutions, termed “frugal connectivity,” are vital for the development of connected Arctic communities.

Cumulative impacts of a gravel road and climate change in an ice-wedge-polygon landscape, Prudhoe Bay, Alaska

Environmental impact assessments for new Arctic infrastructure do not adequately consider the likely long-term cumulative effects of climate change and infrastructure to landforms and vegetation in areas with ice-rich permafrost, due in part to lack of long-term environmental studies that monitor changes after the infrastructure is built. This case study examines long-term (1949–2020) climate- and road-related changes in a network of ice-wedge polygons, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska. We studied four trajectories of change along a heavily traveled road and a relatively remote site. During 20 years prior to the oilfield development, the climate and landscapes changed very little. During 50 years after development, climate-related changes included increased numbers of thermokarst ponds, changes to ice-wedge-polygon morphology, snow distribution, thaw depths, dominant vegetation types, and shrub abundance. Road dust strongly affected plant-community structure and composition, particularly small forbs, mosses, and lichens. Flooding increased permafrost degradation, polygon center-trough elevation contrasts, and vegetation productivity. It was not possible to isolate infrastructure impacts from climate impacts, but the combined datasets provide unique insights into the rate and extent of ecological disturbances associated with infrastructure-affected landscapes under decades of climate warming. We conclude with recommendations for future cumulative impact assessments in areas with ice-rich permafrost.

International access to research infrastructure in the Arctic

Abstract Reliable access to Arctic research infrastructure is critical to the future of polar science. In cultivating proposals, it is essential that researchers have a deep understanding of existing platforms when selecting the appropriate research site and experimental design for projects. However, Arctic infrastructure platforms are often funded as national assets, and choices for what would be the best platform for the project are sometimes at odds with a researcher’s ability to gain access. Researchers from Arctic and non-Arctic nations are poised to benefit from reducing barriers and increasing cooperation around transnational access to Arctic infrastructure, allowing scientists to successfully execute the research that is most needed rather than what is just logistically feasible. This commentary provides a summary of findings from a workshop held at the 2021 Arctic Science Summit Week to discuss navigating “transnational” or “cross-border” access to national research infrastructure. This workshop brought together users and operators of Arctic infrastructure platforms with the three goals of identifying challenges, best practices, and possible next steps for improved collaboration.

The role of polarseaworthiness in shipping planning for infrastructure projects in the Arctic: The case of Yamal LNG plant

The numerous Artic port industrial complex projects are currently marked by a lack of both railroad and road infrastructures and require a heavy cargo shipping service. Yet, navigation in the Arctic implies facing harsh sailing conditions. To prevent risk arising from this singular region, the IMO Polar Code imposes mandatory tools as the Polar Ship Certificate and suggests others such as POLARIS. At the crossroads of container and tramp market, scholars have paid little attention to the transportation of heavy cargo. The objective of this research is to assess the impact of the Polar Code policy framework and its tools on the management of a highly strategic project. To do so, we shall rely on the case of the transport and assembly of the Yamal LNG plant modules. Yamal LNG started its production in late 2019 and has already produced 19 million tons per year. The paper contemplates a ship routing and scheduling optimization model that considers different fleet types and ice conditions and applies the POLARIS Risk Index Outcome (RIO) in Arctic waters. Even though the modules are required on site in summer, due to the extreme weather conditions and limited accessibility in winter, our results highlight that the use of Polar Class vessels allowing year-round navigation in Arctic waters is critical to ensure the success of such projects. Indeed, Polar Class 3 vessels, as ships with the greatest possible “polarseaworthiness”, are capable of significantly reducing delays in project’s completion. It also emphasizes the paramount role of the Polar Code and related tools in the shipping risk management of Arctic infrastructure projects.

Greenland and the geopolitics of critical minerals

Greenland and the geopolitics of critical minerals

Expanding infrastructure and growing anthropogenic impacts along Arctic coasts

The accelerating climatic changes and new infrastructure development across the Arctic require more robust risk and environmental assessment, but thus far there is no consistent record of human impact. We provide a first panarctic satellite-based record of expanding infrastructure and anthropogenic impacts along all permafrost affected coasts (100 km buffer, ≈6.2 Mio km2), named the Sentinel-1/2 derived Arctic Coastal Human Impact (SACHI) dataset. The completeness and thematic content goes beyond traditional satellite based approaches as well as other publicly accessible data sources. Three classes are considered: linear transport infrastructure (roads and railways), buildings, and other impacted area. C-band synthetic aperture radar and multi-spectral information (2016–2020) is exploited within a machine learning framework (gradient boosting machines and deep learning) and combined for retrieval with 10 m nominal resolution. In total, an area of 1243 km2 constitutes human-built infrastructure as of 2016–2020. Depending on region, SACHI contains 8%–48% more information (human presence) than in OpenStreetMap. 221 (78%) more settlements are identified than in a recently published dataset for this region. 47% is not covered in a global night-time light dataset from 2016. At least 15% (180 km2) correspond to new or increased detectable human impact since 2000 according to a Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index trend comparison within the analysis extent. Most of the expanded presence occurred in Russia, but also some in Canada and US. 31% and 5% of impacted area associated predominantly with oil/gas and mining industry respectively has appeared after 2000. 55% of the identified human impacted area will be shifting to above 0 ∘C ground temperature at two meter depth by 2050 if current permafrost warming trends continue at the pace of the last two decades, highlighting the critical importance to better understand how much and where Arctic infrastructure may become threatened by permafrost thaw.

Consequences of permafrost degradation for Arctic infrastructure – bridging the model gap between regional and engineering scales

Abstract. Infrastructure built on perennially frozen ice-rich ground relies heavily on thermally stable subsurface conditions. Climate-warming-induced deepening of ground thaw puts such infrastructure at risk of failure. For better assessing the risk of large-scale future damage to Arctic infrastructure, improved strategies for model-based approaches are urgently needed. We used the laterally coupled 1D heat conduction model CryoGrid3 to simulate permafrost degradation affected by linear infrastructure. We present a case study of a gravel road built on continuous permafrost (Dalton highway, Alaska) and forced our model under historical and strong future warming conditions (following the RCP8.5 scenario). As expected, the presence of a gravel road in the model leads to higher net heat flux entering the ground compared to a reference run without infrastructure and thus a higher rate of thaw. Further, our results suggest that road failure is likely a consequence of lateral destabilisation due to talik formation in the ground beside the road rather than a direct consequence of a top-down thawing and deepening of the active layer below the road centre. In line with previous studies, we identify enhanced snow accumulation and ponding (both a consequence of infrastructure presence) as key factors for increased soil temperatures and road degradation. Using differing horizontal model resolutions we show that it is possible to capture these key factors and their impact on thawing dynamics with a low number of lateral model units, underlining the potential of our model approach for use in pan-Arctic risk assessments. Our results suggest a general two-phase behaviour of permafrost degradation: an initial phase of slow and gradual thaw, followed by a strong increase in thawing rates after the exceedance of a critical ground warming. The timing of this transition and the magnitude of thaw rate acceleration differ strongly between undisturbed tundra and infrastructure-affected permafrost ground. Our model results suggest that current model-based approaches which do not explicitly take into account infrastructure in their designs are likely to strongly underestimate the timing of future Arctic infrastructure failure. By using a laterally coupled 1D model to simulate linear infrastructure, we infer results in line with outcomes from more complex 2D and 3D models, but our model's computational efficiency allows us to account for long-term climate change impacts on infrastructure from permafrost degradation. Our model simulations underline that it is crucial to consider climate warming when planning and constructing infrastructure on permafrost as a transition from a stable to a highly unstable state can well occur within the service lifetime (about 30 years) of such a construction. Such a transition can even be triggered in the coming decade by climate change for infrastructure built on high northern latitude continuous permafrost that displays cold and relatively stable conditions today.