Arctic Freshwater Research Articles

Sentinel responses of Arctic freshwater systems to climate: linkages, evidence, and a roadmap for future research

While the sentinel nature of freshwater systems is now well recognized, widespread integration of freshwater processes and patterns into our understanding of broader climate-driven Arctic terrestrial ecosystem change has been slow. We review the current understanding across Arctic freshwater systems of key sentinel responses to climate, which are attributes of these systems with demonstrated and sensitive responses to climate forcing. These include ice regimes, temperature and thermal structure, river baseflow, lake area and water level, permafrost-derived dissolved ions and nutrients, carbon mobilization (dissolved organic carbon, greenhouse gases, and radiocarbon), dissolved oxygen concentrations, lake trophic state, various aquatic organisms and their traits, and invasive species. For each sentinel, our objectives are to clarify linkages to climate, describe key insights already gained, and provide suggestions for future research based on current knowledge gaps. We suggest that tracking key responses in Arctic freshwater systems will expand understanding of the breadth and depth of climate-driven Arctic ecosystem changes, provide early indicators of looming, broader changes across the landscape, and improve protection of freshwater biodiversity and resources.

Viral spillover risk increases with climate change in High Arctic lake sediments.

The host spectrum of viruses is quite diverse, as they can sustainedly infect a few species to several phyla. When confronted with a new host, a virus may even infect it and transmit sustainably in this new host, a process called ‘viral spillover’. However, the risk of such events is difficult to quantify. As climate change is rapidly transforming environments, it is becoming critical to quantify the potential for spillovers. To address this issue, we resorted to a metagenomics approach and focused on two environments, soil and lake sediments from Lake Hazen, the largest High Arctic freshwater lake in the world. We used DNA and RNA sequencing to reconstruct the lake’s virosphere in both its sediments and soils, as well as its range of eukaryotic hosts. We then estimated the spillover risk by measuring the congruence between the viral and the eukaryotic host phylogenetic trees, and show that spillover risk increases with runoff from glacier melt, a proxy for climate change. Should climate change also shift species range of potential viral vectors and reservoirs northwards, the High Arctic could become fertile ground for emerging pandemics.

ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА И ЦВЕТЕНИЕ АРКТИЧЕСКОГО ОЗЕРА ИМАНДРА

Trends of meteorological parameters potentially implicated in harmful algal blooms regularly occurring since early 2000-ies in a major Arctic freshwater basin the lake Imandra have been analyzed. Compared with the preceding period, increases occurred in mean annual and seasonal air temperatures, sunshine duration, and solar radiation, whereas decreases occurred in spring cloudiness and winter precipitates. These changes resulted in altered light regimens in the lake, which were associated with an increased availability of photosynthetically relevant radiation in springtime. In combination with an increased biogenic matter load, this could lead to drastic changes in the structure of phytoplanktonic communities and in their seasonal successions, as well as in biogenic matter dynamics. Based on these considerations and published data, a conceptual model of the emergence and development of regular harmful algal blooms in the lake Imandra is suggested.

Century-Scale Variability of Arctic SSH and Freshwater Content in a Past-1000-Year Model Experiment

Abstract We examine a 1000-yr-long forced historical run of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (henceforth, past1000) with respect to freshwater-induced sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Arctic Ocean, with a focus on time scales up to and longer than centuries. As a test of the degree to which sea surface height and freshwater content covariability is due to internal climate variability in the model, and how much is due to external forcing, the past1000 results are compared to a control run using the same model, (henceforth, Ctl-P). We find that the freshwater transport associated with circulation changes, the freshwater input at the surface from the atmosphere and runoff, and ice export out of the Arctic jointly contribute to the centennial-scale freshwater variability in the Arctic. Low-frequency winds generate freshwater variability mostly through ocean circulation changes, but appear to be less important compared with earlier studies. The ice transport varies most clearly with Arctic air temperatures, and it appears that ice thickness variability is at least as important as the wind and ocean current transport variability. The largest difference in freshwater forcing in the forced run, compared to Ctl-P, is enhanced precipitation variability driven by the volcanic forcing only present in the forced, past1000 run.

The limnological response of Arctic deltaic lakes to alterations in flood regime

ABSTRACT Arctic freshwaters are being rapidly altered by global climate change with consequences to hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecology, but in many cases the trajectory of these changes is poorly understood. We collected a unique 5-year time series of major ion, nutrient, and trace metal data from lakes in the Mackenzie Delta (NT, Canada) to examine limnological changes during a period of variable flood conditions, including years of recent historic high and low peak river levels. Previous work in the Mackenzie Delta has established that lake water chemistry is strongly related to connection time with the river during the period of spring ice-jam flooding or via channel connections through the growing season. We show that differences in peak spring water levels explain differences in lake chemistry in lakes isolated from the channel during the summer. Isolated, macrophyte-rich lakes in the Mackenzie Delta have been shown to be CO2 absorbers during summer. We demonstrate a response to alterations in flood regime by variables related to macrophyte productivity in isolated lakes with the greatest connectivity to the river that suggests productivity declines with increasing connection time. The connectivity of low-elevation lakes, which represent a majority of lake number and area in the Mackenzie Delta, has been projected to increase with climate change. Our work suggests that an increase in connection time may decrease the macrophyte productivity of these lakes, with potential consequences to the CO2 balance of individual lakes and the Mackenzie Delta as a whole.

An evaluation of the E3SMv1 Arctic ocean and sea-ice regionally refined model

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a state-of-the-science Earth system model (ESM) with the ability to focus horizontal resolution of its multiple components in specific areas. Regionally refined global ESMs are motivated by the need to explicitly resolve, rather than parameterize, relevant physics within the regions of refined resolution, while offering significant computational cost savings relative to the respective cost of configurations with high-resolution (HR) everywhere on the globe. In this paper, we document results from the first Arctic regionally refined E3SM configuration for the ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-Arctic-OSI), while employing data-based atmosphere, land, and hydrology components. Our aim is an improved representation of the Arctic coupled ocean and sea-ice state, its variability and trends, and the exchanges of mass and property fluxes between the Arctic and the sub-Arctic. We find that E3SM-Arctic-OSI increases the realism of simulated Arctic ocean and sea-ice conditions compared to a similar low-resolution E3SM simulation without the Arctic regional refinement in ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-LR-OSI). In particular, exchanges through the main Arctic gateways are greatly improved with respect to E3SM-LR-OSI. Other aspects, such as the Arctic freshwater content variability and sea-ice trends, are also satisfactorily simulated. Yet, other features, such as the upper-ocean stratification and the sea-ice thickness distribution, need further improvements, involving either more advanced parameterizations, model tuning, or additional grid refinements. Overall, E3SM-Arctic-OSI offers an improved representation of the Arctic system relative to E3SM-LR-OSI, at a fraction (15 %) of the computational cost of comparable global high-resolution configurations, while permitting exchanges with the lower-latitude oceans that cannot be directly accounted for in Arctic regional models.

Climate change and mercury in the Arctic: Biotic interactions

Global climate change has led to profound alterations of the Arctic environment and ecosystems, with potential secondary effects on mercury (Hg) within Arctic biota. This review presents the current scientific evidence for impacts of direct physical climate change and indirect ecosystem change on Hg exposure and accumulation in Arctic terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms. As the marine environment is elevated in Hg compared to the terrestrial environment, terrestrial herbivores that now exploit coastal/marine foods when terrestrial plants are iced over may be exposed to higher Hg concentrations. Conversely, certain populations of predators, including Arctic foxes and polar bears, have shown lower Hg concentrations related to reduced sea ice-based foraging and increased land-based foraging. How climate change influences Hg in Arctic freshwater fishes is not clear, but for lacustrine populations it may depend on lake-specific conditions, including interrelated alterations in lake ice duration, turbidity, food web length and energy sources (benthic to pelagic), and growth dilution. In several marine mammal and seabird species, tissue Hg concentrations have shown correlations with climate and weather variables, including climate oscillation indices and sea ice trends; these findings suggest that wind, precipitation, and cryosphere changes that alter Hg transport and deposition are impacting Hg concentrations in Arctic marine organisms. Ecological changes, including northward range shifts of sub-Arctic species and altered body condition, have also been shown to affect Hg levels in some populations of Arctic marine species. Given the limited number of populations and species studied to date, especially within Arctic terrestrial and freshwater systems, further research is needed on climate-driven processes influencing Hg concentrations in Arctic ecosystems and their net effects. Long-term pan-Arctic monitoring programs should consider ancillary datasets on climate, weather, organism ecology and physiology to improve interpretation of spatial variation and time trends of Hg in Arctic biota.

A multi-proxy study of Holocene environmental and climate change in the Pechora Delta

Abstract. The Arctic and subarctic regions have been the focus of a great deal of research during the recent years. Their high-latitude areas are thought to play a crucial role in climatic forcing and, thus, may be particularly sensitive to climate change. Arctic freshwater ecosystems are especially susceptible to the negative consequences of global environmental change drivers. Paleoclimatic investigations provide a better insight into the climate and environmental situation of certain regions and water objects in the past and help to predict their future changes, as well as to identify the development trends of the Earth s climate as a whole. The multy-proxy study of 96-cm long sediment core obtained in Lake Arcto-Pimberto (68 26.114 N, 053 32.311 E, the Pechora River delta, Nenets Autonomous Okrug) reflect regional paleoecological and climate changes in the north of the Eastern European plain over the last 6400 year. Based on the subfossil Cladocera, diatom and palynological analysis of the bottom sediment of the arctic lake Arkto-Pimberto, we received preliminary information on environmental and climatic changes, as well as on changes in vegetation character in the area around the water body.

Improving the framework for assessment of ecological change in the Arctic: A circumpolar synthesis of freshwater biodiversity

Abstract Climate warming and subsequent landscape transformations result in rapid ecological change in Arctic freshwaters. Here we provide a synthesis of the diversity of benthic diatoms, plankton, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, and fish in Arctic freshwaters. We developed a multi‐organism measure of α diversity to characterise circumpolar spatial patterns and their environmental correlates, and we assessed ecoregion‐level β diversity for all organism groups across the Arctic. Alpha diversity was lowest at high latitudes and elevations and where dispersal barriers exist. Diversity was positively related to temperature, and both temperature and connectivity limited diversity on high latitude islands. Beta diversity was highly variable among ecoregions for most organism groups, ranging from 0 (complete similarity) to 1 (complete dissimilarity). The high degree of dissimilarity within many ecoregions illustrates the uniqueness of many Arctic freshwater communities. Northward range expansion of freshwater taxa into Arctic regions may lead to increased competition for cold‐stenothermic and cold‐adapted species, and ultimately lead to the extinction of unique Arctic species. Societal responses to predicted impacts include: (1) actions to improve detection of changes (e.g., harmonised monitoring, remote sensing) and engagement with Arctic residents and Indigenous Peoples; and (2) actions to reduce the impact of unwanted changes (e.g., reductions of CO2 emissions, action against the spread of invasive species). Current Arctic freshwater monitoring shows large gaps in spatial coverage, while time series data are scarce. Arctic countries should develop an intensified, long‐term monitoring programme with routine reporting. Such an approach will allow detection of long‐term changes in water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem services of Arctic freshwaters.

Inuvialuit knowledge of Pacific salmon range expansion in the western Canadian Arctic

Rapid climate change is altering Arctic ecosystems and significantly affecting the livelihoods and cultural traditions of Arctic Indigenous peoples. In the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR), growing evidence suggests that climate change is altering marine environments. In this project we recorded and synthesized Inuvialuit knowledge of Pacific salmon. We used methods that are emergent in fisheries science to combine interview information with voluntary harvest data and better understand changes to salmon in the Arctic. We conducted 53 interviews with Inuvialuit fishers about the history of Pacific salmon harvest, how it has changed in recent decades, and concurrent changes to local environments and fish species. Our interviews show that historical, incidental salmon harvest in the ISR ranged from infrequent to common among western communities, but was rare or unprecedented among eastern communities. Participants in all six communities reported a recent increase in salmon harvest and attributed this shift to regional environmental change. Fishers were concerned that salmon would negatively affect their cultural traditions and preferred fish species. Given uncertainty about the effects of salmon on local fisheries, research on salmon in the Arctic, the likelihood of their establishment, and their potential to provide subsidies to Arctic freshwater ecosystems is vital.

A first account of the heterotrophic eukaryote Rabdiophrys Rainer from the fossil record and description of a new species from an ancient Eocene Arctic freshwater lake

Rotosphaerids are unicellular, heterotrophic, eukayotic protists that have filopodia, an exterior covering consisting of highly ornamented siliceous scales, and are classified in the Rotosphaerida within the opistokont lineage. Given their appearance as relatively large spherical cells with protruding filopodia and a silica scale covering, they are often mistaken for centrohelid heliozoans. Even though these organisms are widely distributed in both marine and freshwater environments, many species are rarely reported, and none have been reported from the fossil record. We report extensive remains of a new species of Rabdiophrys, R. giraffensis, from an ancient waterbody that was situated near the Arctic Circle in northern Canada during the Eocene. The new species has both plate and spine scales that are similar in morphology, but significantly larger than its closest modern congeners, R. monopora and R. anulifera. The waterbody in which the new species grew and thrived is inferred to have been a moderately deep, circumneutral pond, with moderate concentrations of nutrients and dissolved humic material.

Predicting Thermal Responses of an Arctic Lake to Whole‐Lake Warming Manipulation

AbstractWe investigated how lake thermal processes responded to whole lake warming manipulation in an arctic lake through observations and numerical modeling. The warming manipulation was conducted by artificially heating the epilimnion as a proxy for climate warming. We performed numerical modeling with an improved lake scheme based on the Community Land Model (CLM). We simulated a control run (CTL) without warming and a warming manipulation simulation (WARM). Results indicated WARM accurately captured observed temperatures where water stratification was extended in time, and water stability was strengthened. Two additional sensitivity tests with different warming onset dates and of the same warming duration showed that earlier warming onsets are predicted to make the water column more stable and less easily mixed relative to a later onset of warming. The results provide a more complete understanding of lake thermal processes in arctic freshwater lake systems and how they will respond to predicted future warming.

Arctic freshwater biodiversity: Establishing baselines, trends, and drivers of ecological change

Abstract Climate change is predicted to have dramatic effects on Arctic freshwater ecosystems through changes to the abiotic template that are expected to influence biodiversity. Changes are already ongoing in Arctic systems, but there is a lack of coordinated monitoring of Arctic freshwaters that hinders our ability to assess changes in biodiversity. To address the need for coordinated monitoring on a circumpolar scale, the Arctic Council working group, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, established the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program, which is an adaptive monitoring program for the Arctic centred around four ecosystem themes (i.e., Freshwater, Terrestrial, Coastal, Marine). The freshwater theme developed a monitoring plan for Arctic freshwater biodiversity and recently completed the first assessment of status and trends in Arctic freshwater biodiversity. Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program–Freshwater has compiled and analysed a database of Arctic freshwater monitoring data to form the first report of the state of circumpolar Arctic freshwater biodiversity. This special issue presents the scientific analyses that underlie the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program–Freshwater report and provides analyses of spatial and temporal diversity patterns and the multiple‐stressor scenarios that act on the biological assemblages and biogeochemistry of Arctic lakes and rivers. This special issue includes regional patterns for selected groups of organisms in Arctic rivers and lakes of northern Europe, Russia, and North America. Circumpolar assessments for benthic diatoms, macrophytes, plankton, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish demonstrate how climate change and associated environmental drivers affect freshwater biodiversity. Also included are papers on spatial and temporal trends in water chemistry across the circumpolar region, and a systematic review of documented Indigenous Knowledge that demonstrates its potential to support assessment and conservation of Arctic freshwaters. This special issue includes the first circumpolar assessment of trends in Arctic freshwater biodiversity and provides important baseline information for future assessments and studies. It represents the largest compilation and assessment of Arctic freshwater biodiversity data to date and strives to provide a holistic view of ongoing change in these ecosystems to support future monitoring efforts. By identifying gaps in monitoring data across the circumpolar region, as well as identifying best practices for monitoring and assessment, this special issue presents an important resource for researchers, policy makers, and Indigenous and local communities that can support future assessments of ecosystem change.

Using Remotely Sensed Sea Surface Salinity and Colored Detrital Matter to Characterize Freshened Surface Layers in the Kara and Laptev Seas during the Ice-Free Season

The overall volume of freshwater entering the Arctic Ocean has been growing as glaciers melt and river runoff increases. Since 1980, a 20% increase in river runoff has been observed in the Arctic system. As the discharges of the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena rivers are an important source of freshwater in the Kara and Laptev Seas, an increase in river discharge might have a significant impact on the upper ocean circulation. The fresh river water mixes with ocean water and forms a large freshened surface layer (FSL), which carries high loads of dissolved organic matter and suspended matter into the Arctic Ocean. Optically active material (e.g., phytoplankton and detrital matter) are spread out into plumes, which are evident in satellite data. Russian river signatures in the Kara and Laptev Seas are also evident in recent SMOS Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) Arctic products. In this study, we compare the new Arctic+ SSS products, produced at the Barcelona Expert Center, with the Ocean Color absorption coefficient of colored detrital matter (CDM) in the Kara and Laptev Seas for the period 2011–2019. The SSS and CDM are found to be strongly negatively correlated in the regions of freshwater influence, with regression coefficients between −0.72 and −0.91 in the studied period. Exploiting this linear correlation, we estimate the SSS back to 1998 using two techniques: one assuming that the relationship between the CDM and SSS varies regionally in the river-influenced areas, and another assuming that it does not. We use the 22-year time-series of reconstructed SSS to estimate the interannual variability of the extension of the FSL in the Kara and Laptev Seas as well as their freshwater content. For the Kara and Laptev Seas, we use 32 and 28 psu as reference salinities, and 26 and 24 psu isohalines as FSL boundaries, respectively. The average FSL extension in the Kara Sea is 2089–2611 km2, with a typical freshwater content of 11.84–14.02 km3. The Laptev Sea has a slightly higher mean FSL extension of 2320–2686 km2 and a freshwater content of 10.15–12.44 km3. The yearly mean freshwater content and extension of the FSL, computed from SMOS SSS and Optical data, is (as expected) found to co-vary with in situ measurements of river discharge from the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory database, demonstrating the potential of SMOS SSS to better monitor the river discharge changes in Eurasia and to understand the Arctic freshwater system during the ice-free season.

Declining fungal diversity in Arctic freshwaters along a permafrost thaw gradient.

Climate change-driven permafrost thaw has a strong influence on pan-Arctic regions, via, for example, the formation of thermokarst ponds. These ponds are hotspots of microbial carbon cycling and greenhouse gas production, and efforts have been put on disentangling the role of bacteria and archaea in recycling the increasing amounts of carbon arriving to the ponds from degrading watersheds. However, despite the well-established role of fungi in carbon cycling in the terrestrial environments, the interactions between permafrost thaw and fungal communities in Arctic freshwaters have remained unknown. We integrated data from 60 ponds in Arctic hydro-ecosystems, representing a gradient of permafrost integrity and spanning over five regions, namely Alaska, Greenland, Canada, Sweden, and Western Siberia. The results revealed that differences in pH and organic matter quality and availability were linked to distinct fungal community compositions and that a large fraction of the community represented unknown fungal phyla. Results display a 16%-19% decrease in fungal diversity, assessed by beta diversity, across ponds in landscapes with more degraded permafrost. At the same time, sites with similar carbon quality shared more species, aligning a shift in species composition with the quality and availability of terrestrial dissolved organic matter. We demonstrate that the degradation of permafrost has a strong negative impact on aquatic fungal diversity, likely via interactions with the carbon pool released from ancient deposits. This is expected to have implications for carbon cycling and climate feedback loops in the rapidly warming Arctic.

Microbial colonizers of microplastics in an Arctic freshwater lake

Microplastics (MPs) have been found everywhere as they are easily transported between environmental compartments. Through their transport, MPs are quickly colonized by microorganisms; this microbial community is known as the plastisphere. Here, we characterized the plastisphere of three MPs, one biodegradable (PHB) and two non-biodegradables (HDPE and LDPE), deployed in an Arctic freshwater lake for eleven days. The plastisphere was found to be complex, confirming that about a third of microbial colonizers were viable. Plastisphere was compared to microbial communities on the surrounding water and microbial mats on rocks at the bottom of the lake. Microbial mats followed by MPs showed the highest diversity regarding both prokaryotes and eukaryotes as compared to water samples; however, for fungi, MPs showed the highest diversity of the tested substrates. Significant differences on microbial assemblages on the three tested substrates were found; regarding microbial assemblages on MPs, bacterial genera found in polar environments such as Mycoplana, Erythromicrobium and Rhodoferax with species able to metabolize recalcitrant chemicals were abundant. Eukaryotic communities on MPs were characterized by the presence of ciliates of the genera Stentor, Vorticella and Uroleptus and the algae Cryptomonas, Chlamydomonas, Tetraselmis and Epipyxis. These ciliates normally feed on algae so that the complexity of these assemblages may serve to unravel trophic relationships between co-existing taxa. Regarding fungal communities on MPs, the most abundant genera were Betamyces, Cryptococcus, Arrhenia and Paranamyces. MPs, particularly HDPE, were enriched in the sulI and ermB antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) which may raise concerns about human health–related issues as ARGs may be transferred horizontally between bacteria. This study highlights the importance of proper waste management and clean-up protocols to protect the environmental health of pristine environments such as polar regions in a context of global dissemination of MPs which may co-transport microorganisms, some of them including ARGs.

Arctic Freshwater Environment Altered by the Accumulation of Commonly Determined and Potentially New POPs

Chemical composition of Arctic freshwater ecosystems depends on several factors. They include characteristics of the surrounding landscape, its lithology, geomorphology, vegetation, and hydrological features, as well as accumulation of anthropogenic pollution. In the Arctic, the problem of environmental contamination is widespread. That is why research on lakes and river catchments in terms of their chemical composition has enjoyed increasing interest among scientists worldwide. The freshwater reservoirs of the Arctic are fragile and particularly vulnerable to the uptake of pollutants that become trapped in the water and sediments for an extended period. This review summarises selected studies of freshwater bodies in the Arctic to highlight the problem of the accumulation of pollutants in these reservoirs. Moreover, it emphasises the possible negative impact of chemical pollutants on both animal and human health.

Nonmonotonic Change of the Arctic Ocean Freshwater Storage Capability in a Warming Climate

AbstractFreshwater in the Arctic Ocean is one of the key climate components. It is not well understood how the capability of the Arctic Ocean to store freshwater will develop when freshwater supplies increase in a warming climate. By using numerical experiments, we find that this capability varies with the Arctic sea ice decline nonmonotonically, with the largest capability at intermediate strength of sea ice decline. Through enhancing the ocean surface stress, sea ice decline not only accumulates freshwater toward the Amerasian Basin but also tends to reduce the amount of freshwater in both the Eurasian and Amerasian basins by increasing the occupation of Atlantic‐origin water in the upper ocean. An increase in river runoff modulates the counterbalance of the two competing effects, leading to the nonmonotonic changes of the Arctic freshwater storage capability in a warming climate.

Under-ice limnology of coastal valley lakes at the edge of the Arctic Ocean

The northern coast of Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic is undergoing amplified warming that parallels the rapid decline in Arctic Ocean sea ice extent, and many lakes in this region have already shown changes in response to warming. However, biogeochemical data from High Arctic freshwaters are limited, and mostly restricted to the short, ice-free period. We sampled four coastal lakes in Stuckberry Valley (82°54′N, 66°56′W) before the onset of spring melting in 2017, 2018 and 2019, to assess biogeochemical gradients in their water columns and characteristics of their surface sediments. Despite their proximity, there were large differences in limnological properties. The two shallower lakes closer to the ocean were oxygen deficient, whereas the two deeper, more distant lakes were more oxygenated. There were pronounced vertical gradients in major ions, metals, and nutrients that suggested large differences in the extent of anaerobic microbial processes among the lakes. Morphometry and dissolved oxygen were the overriding determinants of biogeochemical differences rather than position along this short ocean–inland gradient. The diversity of limnological conditions, and the sensitivity of these characteristics to changes in ice cover, underlines the need for further study of under-ice processes in extreme northern lakes.

Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Ensembles: Declining Sea Ice, Increasing Ocean Storage and Export

AbstractThe Arctic has undergone dramatic changes in sea ice cover and the hydrologic cycle, both of which strongly impact the freshwater storage in, and export from, the Arctic Ocean. Here we analyze Arctic freshwater storage and fluxes in seven climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and assess their performance over the historical period (1980–2000) and in two future emissions scenarios, SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5. Similar to CMIP5, substantial differences exist between the models' Arctic mean states and the magnitude of their 21st century storage and flux changes. In the historical simulation, most models disagree with observations over 1980–2000. In both future scenarios, the models show an increase in liquid freshwater storage and a reduction in solid storage and fluxes through the major Arctic gateways (Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Davis Strait, and the Barents Sea Opening) that is typically larger for SSP5‐8.5 than SSP1‐2.6. The liquid fluxes are driven by both volume and salinity changes, with models exhibiting a change in sign (relative to 1980–2000) of the freshwater flux through the Barents Sea Opening by mid‐century, little change in the Bering Strait flux, and increased export from the remaining straits by the end of the 21st century. In the straits west of Greenland (Nares, Barrow, and Davis straits), the models disagree on the behavior of the liquid freshwater export in the early‐to‐mid 21st century due to differences in the magnitude and timing of a simulated decrease in the volume flux.