It is difficult to determine the discharge stages in a fixed time of repetitive discharge underwater due to the arc formation process being susceptible to external environmental influences. This paper proposes a novel underwater discharge stage identification method based on the Strong Tracking Filter (STF) and impedance change characteristics. The time-varying equivalent circuit model of the discharge underwater is established based on the plasma theory analysis of the impedance change characteristics and mechanism of the discharge process. The STF is used to reduce the randomness of the impedance of repeated discharges underwater, and then the universal identification resistance data is obtained. Based on the resistance variation characteristics of the discriminating resistance of the pre-breakdown, main, and oscillatory discharge stages, the threshold values for determining the discharge stage are obtained. These include the threshold values for the resistance variation rate (K) and the moment (t). Experimental and error analysis results demonstrate the efficacy of this innovative method in discharge stage determination, with a maximum mean square deviation of S cr less than 1.761.